Is Xi Jinping the new Mao?

A complete disintegration of China would be great for India but, with a large number of nuclear weapons and missiles, it could cause enormous destruction, both within and outside the country. President Xi Jinping was born in 1953 and lived through the Great Famine that killed up to 45 million people. This was followed by Mao Zedong's Cultural Revolution in which elders and party leaders were humiliated and beaten by Red Guards. President Liu Shaoqi was beaten and imprisoned. He died in prison in 1969. Since he became president in 2013 Xi Jinping has been accumulating power by purging top officials on corruption charges. Recently he has been named a 'Core' leader, a title previously enjoyed only by Mao and Deng Xiaoping, who crushed the peaceful protests at Tiananmen Square in 1989. A few days back Xi was named Commander in Chief of the armed forces and was seen addressing officers at army headquarters in an army uniform. So, does Xi Jinping see himself as today's Mao Zedong? It is important because even though China was very weak under Mao it invaded Tibet in 1950 and is occupying large tracts of land after its invasion of India in 1962. Under Xi China claims the entire South China Sea as its territory and has built artificial islands on reefs. In January it landed civilian planes on one such reef and a military plane landed on the same reef this month. Its megalomania knows no bounds. China is planning to build 20 floating nuclear power plants on the South China Sea to supply power to the reefs and for exploration for minerals. Obviously, it feels that it has a right to do whatever it pleases and if neighboring countries are harmed then tough luck. So where is China's power coming from? From its economy. Decades of double digit growth has propelled China to become the second largest economy after the US which is why it is able to spend so much on its armed forces. Economic growth was built on exports which are falling because of the fall in global growth following the crisis in 2008. The economy is slowing down rapidly so the government will have to stimulate the economy. But how? China's debt is 248.7% of GDP. Following 2008 the private sector non-financial debt has risen by $6.5 billion per day. Property prices are increasing again, giving rise to the fear of a bubble. Chinese banks are sitting on huge non-performing assets and cannot raise money from the market because their shares are trading at below book value. Growth is being maintained by debt, driven by the real estate sector. Overcapacity and excessive debt are leading to deflation so some stimulus is needed by raising money through government bonds instead of through bank credits. We do not know whether Xi Jinping is like Mao Zedong or Kim Jong Un. The only hope for peace is if the economy collapses totally. We can only hope.

A humble salute to our lords and masters.

Seems that India's politicians are becoming more autocratic by the day, enforcing bizarre rules to make us more miserable than we already are. No wonder India is 118th on the World Happiness Index, below Somalia, China, Pakistan and Bangladesh. Having lost in the Supreme Court the Maharashtra government has passed stringent rules to prevent a return of girls dancing in bars. By banning alcohol, tips and suggestive postures Maharashtra is using force to stop the bars from reopening. The same government has no problem when Malaika Arora earns Rs 25 million dancing in hotels during New Year eve. Presumably they serve holy water in these hotels. Apparently women in India refuse to be goody two-shoes because they are showing interest in using sex toys. Shock and horror! How does Mr Fadnavis think that India has a population of 1.3 billion? If he really wants to help women he should make it easier for them to work instead of being mean and nasty to poor women. He should concentrate on tackling serious crimes, which will keep women safe anyway. In an effort to win power by any means Mr Nitish Kumar has banned all forms of alcohol in Bihar. If he has time perhaps he would read this short history of Al Capone who built his power on bootlegging during Prohibition in the US. This ban got him votes of women and will help 'gooda raj', who are his partners in government, in making a fortune from smuggling. A toast to 5 years in power. The central government is determined not to allow doctors to settle abroad after training but has no problem in allowing civil servants to make merry in foreign lands, sponsored by international agencies. What agencies are we talking about? The CIA, MI6 or even the ISI? The logic is that the government spends a lot of money in training doctors so they must work in India to pay back the debt. A huge lie. Because of reservations most doctors are having to pay huge capitation fees to qualify from private medical colleges. They have to work night and day, as interns and residents, for their training. Doctors will be punished if they accept any gift from pharma companies. Doctors will be struck off for 3 months for a gift of Rs 5,000 and for 6 months for a gift of Rs 10,000, which is good, but civil servants can accept a gift of Rs 25,000 from friends. Maybe because they are so pure anyway. Our medical education is very poor so even if a few return after training abroad they are passing on latest knowledge to our doctors. Finally, even after paying huge taxes and tolls we are restricted from driving in Delhi by a tyrant but our trillionaire MPs can whizz through toll plazas without paying a paisa. We are vassals, they are our masters.

Should children be used for political gain?

We have written many times about the pernicious Right to Education Act, which forces private, fee paying schools to reserve 25% of seats for poor students, which makes it an act of lottery, leaving 75% of poor students to the mercy of government schools and increasing fees for the middle class by over 300%. Middle class people are frustrated with the present government for not getting rid of the act, says an article. " By outlawing detention before eighth grade, the law effectively delinks advancement from educational achievement," says the article. Why did the Congress stop all exams up to Class X so that no student maybe failed? Because parents of poor students are very often illiterate so they would be at a great disadvantage. According to socialist thinking, inequality is most easily solved by bringing everybody down to the same level. It has the added advantage of getting votes. It has lowered standards so that " percentage of rural children in grade four capable of double-digit subtraction dropped from 58% to 40% ". " In effect, RTE has created the dreaded licence-permit raj in education," says the article." The National Schools Alliance estimates that more than 5,500 schools have been forced to close....At least another 15,000 have been threatened with closure. Some schools survive only by paying inspectors to look the other way..." The US government went the other way. A law, No Child Left Behind, enacted in 2002, mandates standardized tests for all schools in the country regularly and schools that did not show progress of children would be severely penalized, including firing of teachers and shutting down of schools. The act has led to stagnation, instead of improvement, and has resulted in "....widespread cheating, teaching-to-the-test, narrowing of the curriculum, heartless cases of neediest children being thrown out of schools and more ". A generation has been lost. Many states in India have asked the center to revoke the RTE Act and bring back exams for Class X students. Indian politicians enjoy their power to terrorise citizens so instead of repealing the punitive act they add more violence to it. The AAP government in Delhi asked private schools to list every piece of apparatus, such as microscope and petri dish, and little things, such as " fire extinguishers, TVs, photocopiers, typewriters, desks, dissection equipment, table tennis table and library books ". What about pencils, pens and erasers? Clearly, they want to create animosity between parents and teachers, let the children go to hell. The first act of the same government was to increase their own salaries by 400%. We got rid of brutal white skin tyranny to inherit a more brutal brown skin one. We must be so lucky.

Why are educated women so unhappy with their marriage?

More than 20,000 housewives in India committed suicide in 2014 compared to 5,650 by farmers, nearly 4 times as many, and yet this does not receive any coverage in the media, as do farmers. The surprise is that female activists, who get extremely agitated about access to Hindu temples or the building of dams for irrigation, show no interest in why their sisters are killing themselves. It has been left to foreigners to research the causes of housewife suicides in India. A study in The Lancet in 2012 found that in women older than 15 years of age the rate of suicides in India is 2.5 times that in high-income countries. In western societies "marriage confers protection from suicide to married women". So, why is marriage killing our young women? " We found that female literacy, the level of exposure to the media and smaller family size, were correlated with higher suicide rates," said one researcher. Counterintuitively, women in traditional large families, which probably means rural, have much lower suicide rates. A glib answer is to blame dowries, but dowries are more prevalent in traditional families. It cannot be strained relations with in laws because an educated, working woman is likely to "forge a strong alliance with her husband and persuade him to break off from his parents and set up a nuclear family on their own". Is it because of unfulfilled expectations? In villages most women would eat the same kind of food, wear the same kind of clothes and do a lot of physical work, looking after their families, looking after dairy cattle and helping out in the fields. In cities, standards of wealth, and hence standards of living, vary enormously. Expenses are much higher and jobs maybe very stressful. A 5 year study in the US showed that 82% of wealthy are happy while 98% of poor are unhappy, 87% of wealthy are happy in their marriage while 53% of poor are unhappy, 93% of wealthy liked their work while 85% of the poor did not and 0% wealthy were unhappy with their finances while 98% of the poor were. A civil servant writes that happiness is of 2 types, positive and negative. Positive happiness comes from acquisition and is therefore never satisfied while negative happiness comes from absence of unhappiness, which means an inner peace. Our negative happiness is spoiled by an oppressive state which imposes unjustified restrictions on our lives, like the odd-even rule of driving in Delhi. A book Sex and the Single Girl, published in 1962 promised women that they can 'have it all' but a woman writes that it has made women slaves to their work and to their bodies and provided free sex to men, without the commitment of marriage. Is the rising incidence of abortions in Indian cities a hint of why our young women are unable to bear it any more? We need to ask.

No need to convince us, convince your own.

In an article, 'Islam is Non-Violence', Ms Sadia Dehlvi seeks to differentiate between Sufis and other sects. " Extremism feeds on selective retrieval of sacred texts and history, creating irrational fears that require urgent remedial measures. Terrorists employ this methodology to evoke rage Salafi Wahhabi groups to promise a return to some imagined historic ideals as the only route to paradise," she writes. " Sufism gained in strength in the 8th century as a reaction to the Islamic Caliphate's obsession with conquests and wealth; forgetting the egalitarianism and simplicity of the Prophetic message." " Perhaps the slogan 'Islam is peace' should change to,'Islam is non-violence and non-coercion," she writes."Prophets were not sent to establish peace, but to alleviate suffering, establish law and preach the Oneness of God." But how can you alleviate suffering if there is violence because the weak, the old and children will suffer at the hands of those with arms, as they are doing now in the Middle East, in north Africa and in Pakistan and Afghanistan? And what about those who believe that God maybe a Goddess and will hear our prayers if they are sincere and please do not impose your beliefs on us?  A professor and member of the Congress Party, which was in power for 10 years to 2014, writes that Indian Muslims have not joined Islamic State so far but will do so if Hindutva and ultra-nationalism are allowed to flourish. Why is nationalism a crime? India is a nation and has every right to defend itself from attacks from across its borders. Jamiat-Ulama-i-Hind claims that since Muslim personal laws come from the holy book so it can ignore any judgement of the Supreme Court, which puts it above the law. The Muslim Law Board has warned the Prime Minister to stay away from triple talaq because it comes from Shariat. So secularism and rule of law apply only to Hindus and Muslims are to be allowed to do whatever they please, or they will take to terrorism. Scary. But it is not just in India. a program on BBC showed that one in three of British Muslims believe in the right of a man to have 4 wives, 39% think that women should always obey their husbands and 25% sympathized with the killers of Charlie Hebdo journalists. A Jewish journalist was spat at, called a dog and threatened on the streets of Paris. Migrants have created 900 no-go areas in Europe, giving rise to a backlash by the locals. An Al Jazzera poll last year showed 81% of Arabs support Islamic State, although the number may have fallen after several defeats. It is not surprising that other people are sceptical and angry. It is time to accept that the Caliphate has gone, Genghis Khan has gone, the Ottoman empire has gone, Taimur Lang, Nadir Shah, the Moguls have gone. That does not make you victims. It means it is time to accept that others are equal. Which means you are not superior. That is the real difficulty.

He could have, but did not.

President Obama is to visit Saudi Arabia, apparently to reset relations with the kingdom. But do the Saudis trust him any more after his support for the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, the killing of Gaddafi and the nuclear deal with Iran? Will it end in the same way as the present of a 'reset' button to Russian Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov has done, with a civil war in Ukraine, resulting in a division of the country? Putin and Poroshenko have just agreed a prisoner swap. In a puzzling development the US and Saudi Arabia have just applied sanctions on terrorists in Pakistan. Which is joke unless you apply sanctions on the masters of terror, the Pakistan army and the ISI. The mystery is that Obama has refused to release 28 pages from the report on the 9/11 attacks. They are so secret that members of the Congress can read them but cannot take notes or be accompanied by their aides. The feeling is that the pages reveal Saudi government support for the 9/11 hijackers. After all, 15 of the 19 hijackers were Saudi citizens. Maybe, but why would the Saudis support Osama bin-Laden whose initial rage was against the Saudi royal family, for allowing infidel American troops to be stationed on Saudi soil, which he saw as a holy land? It is equally possible that the secret pages contain evidence against Obama's friends, Pakistan who so conveniently handed over bin-Laden to US forces in 2011 so that Obama could win re-election in 2012. A cable has come to light which shows how the ISI financed attacks on US soldiers in Afghanistan. What we have written many times. However, parts of the cable have been redacted. Why? Why is Obama still protecting the ISI? Hope it is not quid pro quo. Obama was quick to withdraw US troops from Iraq which allowed ISIS to take over large parts of the country. He is supporting some rebel groups fighting against Assad but not the Kurds who are providing actual soldiers on the ground. Why? To please Turkey or to please Iran? A huge explosion in the center of Kabul yesterday was witness to failed policy in Afghanistan. Obama thinks that killing Gaddafi was a mistake. Was it? He did not learn from the mess in Iraq following the removal of Saddam Hussein. Maybe, he just likes to kill. After all, he has killed thousands of innocent civilians and hundreds of children by the indiscriminate use of drones. In South Sudan, touted as a great foreign policy triumph, a fierce civil war has been raging, creating such famine that mothers are being forced to eat the flesh of their children. The sad 'resource curse' of Africa. Obama will be only 55 years old as he leaves office next January. Plenty of time to observe the world descend into bloodshed and hunger. Will he proudly say," Yes, I did."

As long there is finance there will be havens.

The revelation that a law firm in Panama was helping to set up shell companies to conceal wealth, known as the Panama Papers, has put many politicians in trouble. David Cameron was forced to publish his finances and the Prime Minister of Iceland was forced to resign. In the US Bernie Sanders is campaigning on increasing taxes on the rich to help the poor. In India tax avoidance is a hot topic. The government is actively seeking money hidden abroad. But the government has a double tax avoidance treaty with Mauritius which allows companies and non-residents to avoid paying taxes in India. No one knows how much Indians are hiding abroad but it is estimated to be around $181 billion. The tax department admits that it cannot collect Rs 7 trillion worth of taxes because some are under litigation, in some there are not enough assets and in some the payee has disappeared. There is great rage at how the rich are able to game the system to avoid paying taxes at home by hiding money overseas. They employ an army of accountants and lawyers to hide their money through complex financial instruments, which are very difficult to trace, and can pay off corrupt politicians to protect them. But is it all corrupt? Everyone wants to be rich without having to take risks or having to work hard. This is what Charlie Munger, Warren Buffet's deputy thinks," Of course the public market, which operates every day with transactions, is an ideal casino. There is a whole bunch of people who want to own a casino and make a lot of money without losing on inventories or credit..." And again," Even if you do that very honestly, I don't consider it much of a life. Just being shrewd about little pieces of paper, shrewder than other people, is not and adequate life." We are being constantly harangued not to buy gold but to invest in stocks or mutual funds because a deep financial market provides the money for new investments, which create new jobs. Trouble is if you tax too heavily it will just move to another part of the world where taxes are lower and we lose out. Recently the US government stopped a $160 billion merger between Pfizer and Allergan because that would have allowed Pfizer to become domiciled in Ireland where the corporate tax rate is 12.5%. Bernie Sanders is campaigning on higher taxes on the rich. US laws demand that Americans living abroad have to pay tax in the US even though they have paid tax where they live, forcing some to renounce US citizenship. Sanders receives $174,000 salary as a Senator and gets $46,213 from Social Security. In India we get nothing in return for the taxes we pay. The only solution is to have uniform tax rates and benefits in every country in the world. There will be no need for tax havens. But then how will politicians throw handouts to win elections? Therein lies the nub of the problem.

Sudden name change is an expensive inconvenience.

A fierce debate has broken out over the renaming of Gurgaon, a town southwest of Delhi, as Gurugram, by the state government of Haryana. A Fulbright scholar has written a scholarly article expressing her disapproval. She has no problem in renaming Bombay as Mumbai, Madras as Chennai and Calcutta as Kolkata, because these were reminiscent of the brutal British occupation of India but she has a problem with honoring Dronacharya, who was a teacher in martial arts in Mahabharata. She accuses him of caste prejudice because he demanded the thumb of a lower caste man as payment for teaching him archery. But was it caste that motivated Dronacharya to make such a savage demand or was it fear that a man so adept at archery may tilt the balance in favor of the Kauravas in the war that was sure to follow? In today's anti-Hindu animus prevailing in India who needs logical thinking. Another writer feels that those who are opposed to the name change are shallow elites who prefer names, such as Casa Bella and Palm Springs, in silly imitation of California. He feels that there is no harm in using a name that local people will find easier to pronounce. Others have resorted to mockery by punning on gaon, as in " gaon with the wind ", and on gram, as another name for chickpeas and as a unit of weight. Since India has many languages some of the new names are difficult to pronounce for non-native speakers. For instance, Trivandrum is far easier to pronounce than Thiruvananthapuram, Baroda is easier than Vadodara and Ooty is definitely simpler than Udhagamandalam. Another mocks the preference for brands by those who work in MNCs. Sometimes renaming can be senseless. Renaming Uttaranchal, which sounds much sweeter, as Uttarakhand was stupid because all vehicle number plates start with the letters 'UK', which is giving free advertising to the United Kingdom. In all this cacophony no one is focusing on the cost of changing a name. Changing a name of a place suddenly on a whim means that all the businesses will have to change their stationery or waste time in updating their web addresses and people will have to print new business cards, discarding their old ones. If the Haryana government had warned that the name would be changed next year it would have given everyone time to use up their old stationery and saved an awful lot of money. But then Indian politicians see themselves as our masters and believe that winning an election gives them the right to bully citizens at will. Thus Delhi Chief Minister has again imposed car restrictions on us even though a study by IIT Delhi shows that the previous abuse did not improve air quality. Politicians in Tamil Nadu are promising a ban on alcohol even though there are many examples that prohibition results in increased crime. Politicians in India are a curse. We pay.

Will the Republicans help in electing a socialist president?

The empire maybe winning against Donald Trump but may lose the war. From the beginning he has faced abuse like no other candidate for president. Arianna Huffington, who founded the Huffington Post, called him a 'dangerous buffoon', like Kim Jong-un of North Korea. The New York Times cannot find a " scarier nightmare " than Donald Trump. Never mind that the killing of Saddam Hussein, on a lie (Huffington Post), by George Bush led to the rise of ISIS. Obama has just admitted that killing Gaddafi was the 'worst mistake' of his presidency. Bombed into near oblivion in Syria and Iraq, ISIS is shifting to Libya, where it can replenish its coffers if it gains control of Libya's oil. Libya has become the new starting point for migrants after the deal between Europe and Turkey, closed the Greek route. Which means ISIS can send in many terrorists from Libya. So why has Trump won so many primaries? There is a large section of people who feel left out of the political process. They are mainly white, without college degrees and are afraid of terrorism. These people are more concentrated in liberal areas which may seem counterintuitive, but maybe because liberals see them as stupid white racists. Liberal anger was expressed against voters who were labelled as "piggish, racist, sexist, xenophobic". If Trump is so bad why does the media waste so much time on him? Because it increases their ratings. Trouble is the Republican Party leaders are against Trump. Maybe because they are scared that, as an outsider, Trump will be hard to control, but mainly because they think that he will be trounced by Hillary Clinton, who is still the presumed candidate for the Democrats. Will he? Donald Trump is certainly unpopular with an unfavorable rating of 67%, but Hillary Clinton is tied with Ted Cruz on 53% unfavorable rating. Bernie Sanders has just won Colorado with 63% of votes. Sanders is more popular than Clinton and both Republican front runners, Trump and Cruz. Why is a socialist so popular among Americans? Because of Republican Party machinations. They have been after Clinton for years, first over the death of Ambassador Chris Stevens in Benghazi in September 2012 and then getting the FBI to investigate whether she used her private server for confidential emails as Secretary of State. A trumped up charge against Trump's campaign manager by a female reporter has been dropped. Ted Cruz won the all delegates in Colorado by dubious means and now seems to have won the delegates in Georgia even after losing the primary. Apparently leaders of the Republican Party can ignore results of the primaries and choose their own candidate for president by a system of 'brokered convention'. If Bernie Sanders wins in November the Republicans would have been instrumental in electing a socialist president. Will they feel the Bern?

Have we reached a crossroads?

Since the beginning of the year there is a rising fear of a global recession, with central banks resorting to unconventional monetary policies such as negative interest rates and quantitative easing. The IMF has just reduced the growth forecast for this year calling it " Too slow for too long ". A professor of economics writes that if 'conventional unconventional monetary policies' do not work it maybe time for 'unconventional unconventional monetary policies'. Paralysed by the fear of losing elections politicians are unable to carry out structural reforms which have " front-loaded costs and back-loaded benefits ". Quantitative easing " has benefited holders of financial assets, it has also fueled rising inequality ". A 70 year study, starting in 1946, has shown startling inequalities in British society. Even 67% of British Oscar winners attended expensive private schools as children. Inequality starts before birth and carries on throughout life. A study in the US shows how government policies and the tax system cause inequality. Authors suggest that lifetime inequality is more important than at one particular point in time. But ordinary people do not form opinions based on studies. Their decisions are based on perceptions and what they see is that politicians take a victory in elections as a licence to do whatever they like, which they see as a betrayal. The reason why Donald Trump is ahead in the race to be the Republican candidate for president is because white working-class Americans are becoming poorer and they see no one talking for them. Republicans take no responsibility for the plight of these people because they caused the problem in the first place by extending permanent normal trading relations with China, which decimated manufacturing in the US and resulted in low wages by creating a large pool of unemployed people. People would be even more angry if they understood that cheap goods from China kept a check on inflation, helping to keep interest rate low for a long period, thereby leading to the real estate bubble. Obama has been a polarising president and is despised by a large section of Republicans. His secretive nature and his paranoid persecution of whistleblowers has put off even liberal journalists. A leaked tape in Brazil showing the Vice President practicing an acceptance speech for the post of president is being seen as a sleazy betrayal by supporters of President Dilma Rousseff. People in Germany are furious with Angela Merkal for welcoming millions of migrants. In India we have no real debate because the government controls the press by being the largest advertiser and the wealthy do not support think tanks financially because they are making money from licenses and scams, with politicians and civil servants. To be fair, politicians cannot foresee sudden changes in other parts of the world or natural catastrophes but widespread anger is bubbling up all over the world. So much anger is cannot be good. 

What is it that the IMF is not telling us?

The International Monetary Fund has cut its prediction for growth in the global economy from 3.4% to 3.2%. India's growth rate was predicted at 7.5% but the report says," Fiscal consolidation should continue, underpinned by revenue reforms and further reduction in subsidies. Sustaining strong growth over the medium-term will require labour market reforms and dismantling infrastructure bottlenecks, especially in the power sector." Which is another way of saying that government must not exceed its spending target, so that inflation does not rise, the GST bill must be passed, labour laws must be reformed, population must be reduced to cut the subsidy bill and politicians must be stopped from promising free power to win elections. The Purchasing Managers' Index in March was 52.4 and output prices are rising. Core inflation, which does not include volatile food and fuel prices, rose to 4.9%, which means there is an underlying tendency for prices to rise. If the monsoon is good this year it will bring down food prices, which will mean lower retail inflation, but rural consumption will rise pushing up core inflation. It will be interesting to see what the RBI does with the interest rate. A lot will depend on the rupee. If it goes down it will help exports but increase prices of imports, especially oil, which will push up inflation, but if the rupee strengthens imports will become cheaper which means the Prime Minister's efforts of 'Make in India' will be that much harder. The strength of the rupee denotes its exchange rate against the dollar, which depends on what the Federal Reserve does with interest rate in the US. China has been gradually devaluing the yuan against the dollar, to protect its exports, and the Fed has been restrained for fear of upsetting China. The IMF has projected a healthy growth rate of 6.5% for China this year, as it restructures its economy away from investment towards domestic consumption and services. But some believe that China is not rebalancing its economy but is creating another real estate bubble instead. At the moment it is in a 'sweet spot' between bubbles but a hard landing is almost inevitable. Chinese companies are withdrawing their bonds from sales, $7 billion worth of sales were cancelled last month. Yet the level of debt is increasing. The non-financial private sector debt is 205.2% of GDP and the general government debt is 43.5%, for a total of 248.7% of GDP. It was 234.2% of GDP in December 2014. Since the crisis of 2008 non-financial debt has risen by $6.5 billion per day in China. Central banks have run out of ammunition to stimulate growth, prompting some economists to suggest a common currency for the entire world. We have one Greece because of the Euro, imagine 100 Greeces. Things must be pretty desperate if they are discussing fruit-cake ideas. Maybe they are not telling us the whole truth. Oh boy.

Should India trust these seductive whispers?

US Secretary of Defence, Ashton B Carter is in India. But why? Apparently because India and US are strategic partners, locked in an embrace that " will build a bright future that benefits both our nations ". " We share a commitment to important principles, including peaceful resolution of disputes, freedom of navigation and overflight, countering terrorism and a belief that countries should make their own security and economic choices free from coercion and intimidation," he writes. Do we? He should ask his boss, President Barack Obama who saw no difference between terrorist attacks on India, orchestrated by the ISI of Pakistan, and those inside Pakistan, by extreme jihadist groups, in a joint statement with Nawaz Sharif in October 2015. He presumed to lecture India on nuclear weapons, again equating us with Pakistan. Will the US guarantee safety of " navigation and overflight " over artificial islands that China is building in the South China Sea? The US supplied sophisticated military weapons to Pakistan in 2013, is supplying F16 fighter aircraft and has promised to supply attack helicopters to Pakistan, despite repeated attacks on India, originating from Pakistan. So much for being " free from coercion and intimidation ". This is certainly Obama's gratitude for Pakistan handing Osama bin Laden over in 2011 so that he could win re-election in 2012. So why is Secretary Carter filling us with gas? " While in India, I will work to advance our cooperation on aircraft carriers and jet fighter technology, and new agreements for science and technology cooperation," he writes. Aha, now we understand. He wants to sell us outdated aircraft carriers and fighters for huge amounts of cash. Have we not learnt any lessons from the Baku/Admiral Gorshokov/Vikramaditya saga which cost us in excess of $2 billion for a rust bucket of 1988 vintage? The US is building smaller nuclear weapons, raising tensions in the world. Not being prepared for the aftermath of the killing of Gaddafi in Libya was a mistake Obama said recently. It was not a mistake, it was a heinous crime. Not to learn from the chaos precipitated by the removal of Saddam Hussein in Iraq is the act of an imbecile. To unnecessarily invite tension with Russia by instigating an armed coup in Ukraine was also the act of an imbecile. But Obama is no imbecile, although he may think he is too smart. Elected by a combination of black racism and white political correctness he probably wanted to show his relevance by a complete lack of scruples. Mr Carter is " confident that now more than ever, the strategic handshake between the United Sates and India will continue to benefit each of our nations ". God save us. Must never trust the seductive whispers of a forked tongue.

Maybe a dose of 'voodoo economics' is the right medicine.

The Sixth Economic Census shows that the growth in the economy from 2005 to 2013, during the reign of Dr Manmohan Singh, with a D Phil in Economics from Oxford University, did not create regular jobs. In fact, 5 million jobs were actually lost between 2004 and 2010. The share of jobs in non-agricultural establishments fell from 89.18% in 2005 to 82.57% in 2013, which is very bad because a proven way to reduce poverty is to move people out of agriculture into other long term employment. In 2005, 19.54% of rural people were employed in agriculture which increased to 31.01% in 2013 while employment in non-agricultural establishments in rural areas fell from 80.46% to 68.99%. Countries which have reduced poverty have done so by encouraging big enterprises, with high productivity and innovation. In India most enterprises employ less than 5 people. In 1990, 93.41% of establishments had less than 5 workers, accounting for 54.45% of total number of workers. After 23 years the number of establishments employing less than 5 workers has risen to 95.5%, employing 69.52%. Micro and small enterprises provide 84% of employment in manufacturing in India, while in Malaysia it is 27.5% and 24.8% in China. No wonder then that China beats India on every parameter from infrastructure to Human Development Index to medals tally at the Olympics. A lot of the growth that occurred was in the construction sector, which employs mainly daily-wage laborers, and was based on black money generated from a plethora of scams. A combination of very high real estate prices with rising circle rates, which is the market price estimated by the government, has resulted in a slowdown in this industry. In India politicians are always looking to increase taxes to pay for handouts, to win elections. In the US, Ronald Reagan's policy of lower taxes with tighter government spending was derided as 'voodoo economics' but resulted in creation of 20 million jobs and a growth rate of 3.5% of GDP. Reagan inherited a decade of stagflation, that is slow growth with high inflation, but did much better than Obama has done. Median household income shot up 10% under Reagan but has remained flat under Obama and national debt was 53% of GDP while it has grown to 102.7% of GDP under Obama. Reagan had a strong faith in the constitution of the US, which would have made his policies highly moralistic. Our politicians are only interested in self enrichment and continue with failed policies which are keeping the country poor. Ted Cruz, who is campaigning to be the Republican candidate for president, proposes a flat tax of 10% and a reduction in the powers of the Inland Revenue Service. Here the extortion of taxes is such that the tax department has had to refund an excess of Rs 1.17 trillion. Policies to help the poor only increase poverty. The US teaches how to get rich. Will they learn?

The whole world is angry, except those who should be. Why?

India is an unhappy country, coming 118th in the world happiness index. We can see that people are angry by the fatal incidents of road rage everywhere. But how can we be less happy than Somalia at 76, Pakistan at 92 or Palestinian Territories at 108, which are all failed states. Is it because people in these countries are resigned to their fates because everyone, except politicians, army officers and jihadists, is equally poor, while in India society is divided into different layers of prosperity and people feel frustrated because they feel they are being denied their potential? But India is not alone. The whole of the Middle East is in turmoil. There was great elation in 2011 when Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali, the President of Tunisia, scarpered to Saudi Arabia when the country erupted after a street vendor, named Mohamed Bouazizi, set himself on fire. People have become disillusioned with the revolution as corruption has not diminished, there are no jobs and they feel poorer. With nothing to do and no future to look forward to young men in Tunisia are joining ISIS, Al Qaeda and the Al Nusra front. Arab Spring has turned into Arab Winter as Yemen, Libya, Iraq and Syria are in turmoil, Egypt has elected a general as president and Lebanon does not have a president. There is anger all across the Middle East. There is anger in Europe as governments seem paralysed to stop millions of migrants from pouring in. They are worried about becoming minorities in their own countries and consequent loss of culture. Although the US is number 13 in happiness people there are also angry. This was noticed by Donald Trump who has become a big headache for the establishment Republicans. People are worried about the economy, about jobs, about illegal immigrants and about terrorist attacks, especially after San Bernadino. People are angry in Britain as the economy falters and the government tries to balance the budget by cutting social security. Britain will be voting in a referendum on 23 June whether to remain a part of the European Union with both the sides accusing each other of dirty tactics. The Brits are worried about the economy, about immigration from Europe, with the fear of rising crime and the jump in the price of real estate, which is preventing the young from buying their own homes. We Indians are angry because we have no control over our lives. Politicians are elected by a minority of people, based on religious divide, caste or handouts and then impose policies on us, not because it helps the country, but because they want to enhance their own powers by increasing divisions. Thus, the Delhi government is enforcing odd-even rules for men car owners when studies show that it is of no benefit. The Congress is celebrating Muslim votes in Assam by allowing unchecked infiltration from Bangladesh. And honour killings continue in Tamil Nadu, probably in anger against 69% reservation in the state. So much anger will surely explode. What happens then?

If there is not enough water how can there be enough jobs?

The rate of unemployment in rural India is 7.15% and in urban areas it is 9.62%, overall rate in the whole country is 7.97%. Are the goons working for 'syndicates' in Bengal counted as employed? " There are four pillars on which Trinamool Congress is standing, bribes, extortion, syndicates and chit funds. Using these they came to power, and using these they want to stay in power,' said a CPM official. Of course, but will it be any different under the CPM or Congress? Having committed so many crimes the Trinamool has to stay in power somehow, revenge will be swift and bloody it they lose. No wonder, Trinamool MLA Sabyasachi Dutta claimed that his syndicates are providing jobs to thousands of young men, thus sustaining thousands of households. Is it going to get better? Difficult to be optimistic. The fall in the price of oil is causing a lot of Indians to lose their jobs in Gulf countries. Indian colleges just give theoretical knowledge so that students are unprepared for the changing jobs market. We are now in the midst of the fourth industrial revolution. India missed out on the previous three, it will be a disaster if we miss out on this one. Artificial intelligence and robotics will change how people work so that only a few, with the right education, will flourish. What a pity that the fees at IIT colleges have been increased from Rs 90,000 to Rs 200,000 per year. This gives an instant advantage to the rich. Politicians insist that students should take loans from banks because they will get high paying jobs once they finish, so repaying will be easy. Will it? Bernie Sanders, a 73 year old Senator with socialist ideas, is drawing large crowds of young people and giving Hillary Clinton a run for her money in the race to be the Democratic candidate for presidential elections in November. Why are young Americans gravitating towards socialism? Because jobs with good salaries are scarce so that many are struggling to pay off their student loans. Surely colleges in emerging nations are not as expensive as in the US? Fights are breaking out in colleges in South Africa because poor students are finding it increasingly difficult to afford a university education. It will be much worse in India because reservation students will not pay a paisa even if they are extremely rich. There is something very fishy about the published rate of unemployment because 75% of women in India do not work. When it comes to permanent jobs the ratio is one woman for every 4 men. Anyone who can get a job in an IT company tries to get transferred to the US. If nothing at least give birth in the US so that the baby can get US citizenship. The drought in Maharashtra is a warning that there are too many people in India. There can never be enough jobs for so many. Without jobs there will be 'syndicates' everywhere.

How about a tax on genetic inheritance?

Ever since Professor Thomas Piketty wrote his bestseller, 'Capital in the Twenty-First Century', there has been a flood of articles on inequality. The trouble is that pundits use the word 'inequality' when they mean 'poverty'. But they are not the same. After all, a man earning $1 million a year cannot compare with Bill Gates, but is not going to resort to " violence and instability ". An article seeks to make a case for reducing inequality, apparently because it results in economic growth. It gives the usual figures about the effects of poverty on development of children and lauds the socialist policies of Latin America because,"...progressive policies were at the heart of the economic expansion itself: a new generation of better-educated workers entered the labour force, earning higher salaries and reaping the dividends of social spending." If socialist spending was responsible for higher growth should it not be blamed for the recession in Brazil and the collapse of the Venezuelan economy, with rising poverty? How do you make everyone economically equal? One way would be to make every beggar a billionaire. But how? Everyone is born, not only in different circumstances, but with different talents and abilities. There is only one Narayan Murthy or one Sundar Pichai, because they are exceptional. So the only way to make everyone equally rich would be to print lots of notes and distribute them equally. That will result in a collapse in the value of the currency, with resulting hyperinflation, and a collapse of the economy. The other way is to reduce the wealth of the rich by taxing them heavily. Communism was a highly idealistic system, where all assets belonged to the state which rewarded citizens according to need, not ability, and created a classless society. It turned out to be a highly brutal system, giving rise to Josef Stalin, Mao Zedong and Brother Number One, Pol Pot, among others. People hate being restricted. Even in Stalin's Soviet Union people smuggled Western music into the country, etched on X Ray plates. The Panama Papers show how the wealthy avoid paying taxes by hiding them in tax havens. The Chinese are transferring large sums of money overseas because they are worried about the falling value of the yuan. Finally, many countries in the world levy an inheritance tax in the belief that inheritance creates unfair inequality because it is a windfall gain for beneficiaries, who have not done anything to earn it. So should Mr Mukesh Ambani have been forced to pay crippling taxes when he inherited his father's business? In which case what about Ms Ashwarya Rai? She is rich because of her great beauty.  Beauty cannot be acquired, it is in the genes inherited from parents. So should there be an inheritance tax on genes? And if on Ms Rai, what about geniuses like Einstein or CV Raman? Forcing equality on human beings does not work. Focus on eliminating poverty instead. Honestly.

Local solutions cannot improve global weakness.

Managing Director of the IMF, Christine Lagarde thinks that there are political dangers to the global economy. She sees " weak growth, no new jobs, no high inflation, still high debt - all those things that should be low and are still high ". " What we fear is this sort of very new mediocre," she said. Countries need to carry out " structural reforms, fiscal stimulus and monetary policy ". Politicians are reluctant to carry out structural reforms, which maybe painful, and fiscal stimulus may lead to increasing deficit, which is seen as irresponsible, so the entire weight has fallen on monetary policy, which has seen negative interest rates in Japan, Eurozone, Denmark and Switzerland and quantitative easing in the US, the UK, Eurozone and Japan. With virtually no interest to pay average household credit card debt in the US has reached, $7,800, the highest since the recession of 2008. Easy borrowing means that the global real estate market will see investments of over $1 trillion this year. Low interest rates help only those who are credit worthy, which means the rich, while the steep rise in real estate prices means that the poor are unable to buy assets and have to pay increased rent. Which is why Lagarde said that the " cards are stacked against the common man - and woman - in favor of elites ". The US unemployment rate is down to 5% so why is the Federal Reserve holding back from raising rates? Because the global economy, especially that of China, is weak, a large number of people in the US are long term unemployed and wages are stagnant, while stock prices are near all time high and corporate profits are soaring. The global debt has reached over $200 trillion, which is 3 times the size of the entire global economy. China's debt has gone up from $10 trillion to $30 trillion but experts believe that there is no danger of a meltdown like 2008. Trouble is if banks in China and emerging markets have to clean up their books lending will fall, growth will slow down, commodity prices will fall further and we will be in another recession. When Tata announced its intention to sell its loss making business in Britain it sent shock waves around the country with the fear of losing 40,000 jobs. The Business Secretary rushed over to hold talks with the Tata Chairman in Mumbai. Why such panic? Because poor children in Britain are dependent on free food they get in schools and have to starve when schools are closed, during vacations. Why is Tata making such losses in Britain? Because China is dumping steel on other countries at very low prices because there is less demand in its slowing economy. The EU wanted to impose an anti-dumping duty of 66% but David Cameron blocked it because he thought he could increase trade with China. It is so bad that a right wing newspaper is accusing Margaret Thatcher of being responsible. Politicians can focus only on their country, so nothing improves. Unless there is a crisis. 

Why lecture now when they chose to do nothing?

Well known names from the decade of Congress economic disaster have been popping up with advice in recent days. The previous Governor of the Reserve Bank, D Subbarao said that inflation hurts the poor the most and " Cutting interest rates was not necessarily the solution to stimulate investment, there are other constraints." Hear, hear. Strange then that Mr Subbarao was frantically reducing interest rates from 9% in July 2008 to 4.75% in April 2009, when the Congress was running for re-election, even though the average retail inflation was rising from 8.32% in 2008 to 10.83% in 2009. It would rise to 12.11% in 2010 and was 10.92% in 2013 when his term finished, because he started reducing interest rate from April 2012, under pressure from the Congress. He is right when he says that low interest rate alone does not stimulate investment. Companies will not invest in new business unless there is demand for their products and with low consumer confidence demand is likely to be tepid. The interest rate was reduced by 25 basis points to 6.5% yesterday. Some argue that the rate of retail inflation in India is driven mainly by the cost of food, which is dependent on supply, therefore trying to reduce consumer demand by increasing borrowing costs will not bring down the rate of inflation. After all, people must eat to survive. True, but if the cost of other articles of daily use come down then we can better manage the rising cost of food. Rural people spend 54.2% of earnings on food, while urban people spend 36.3%, which means there is considerable benefit to people if other prices are falling. The reason prices of food articles are rising at a slower pace is because prices jumped by 75% in the latter half of 2013. This is known as base effect. The main reason why politicians scream for lower interest rate is because it lowers the cost of borrowing for the government, which is the biggest borrower by far. The estimated borrowing for this financial year is Rs 6 trillion. What is the harm if the government is able to borrow more cheaply? Surely, it would be beneficial if more money is spent on vital infrastructure, such as roads, water and electricity supply, which will increase business, but with elections almost every month it is more likely that the money will be used for handouts to bribe voters, which will increase deficit and reduce growth, as happened with the Congress. Mr Montek Singh Ahluwalia writes that corporate investment is getting squeezed because households are saving less, while combined deficit remains high. He recommends a new Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management Act to discipline government spending. Pity he did not rein in irresponsible spending by the Congress when he was the Deputy Chairman of the Planning Commission. Pity there is no apology, only pontificating.

The US and UK benefit from tax evasion, so it will stay.

Leaked documents from a law firm, Mossack Fonseca in Panama, have revealed the names of hundreds of people and firms hiding money through shell companies, created for that purpose. This is not the first time details of secret accounts have been revealed. There was the Luxembourg leak in 2014 and there was a leak of Swiss bank accounts last year. In this case, Mossack Fonseca seems to have taken details of customers like any bank in India, known here as Know Your Customer or KYC. As usual the list does not include any British or American names, so are we to understand that the British and Americans are all angels with halos around their heads? Which is not strange when we see that the most of the tax havens in the world are controlled by Britain or the US, including the City of London and the state of Delaware in the US. There are names of some Indians, including film stars and businessmen, but not a single politician or civil servant. How is that possible? This after all is the land of scams, worth trillions of rupees. Why is it that politicians and civil servants are never exposed? We can only speculate. They maybe hiding their wealth in real estate, in India or abroad, or they may have accounts in the US or UK, which maybe why our government allows Pakistan to send terrorists to kill Indians whenever they feel like, while the US uses drones to freely bomb terrorists in Pakistan. We will never know because they protect themselves behind the shield of the Official Secrets Act. Who decides what is secret? They do. An Indian Prime Minister dies in a foreign country in 1966 shortly after signing a deal with Pakistan, returning all the territory acquired by the sacrifice of our soldiers, and we still do not know the report of his autopsy or the circumstances of his death. Did he actually sign that agreement with Pakistan, or was his signature forged? More than seventy years after he vanished we learn that the Congress has been destroying files related to Netaji Subhash Chandra Bose. Who knows how we have been betrayed time and again. We get no returns for paying taxes. We see our money being used by politicians and civil servants go abroad for junkets, award themselves shameless pay rises and beg for large houses from the government, while distributing our money in handouts, to win elections. It is no wonder that people who have earned their money through talent and hard work, as Mr Amitabh Bacchan, should want to protect it. Why do the US and UK offer tax havens while lecturing the rest of the world? Maybe because it provides huge amounts of funds on which they pay no interest. It helps their own companies to avoid paying taxes. Legally, as Vodafone did when it avoided paying Rs 110 billion in taxes to India. As long as there are taxes there will be people advising on how best to avoid them. We will happily pay taxes if we have power. Till then the cat and mouse game will go on.

Why wait for a nuclear incident? Act now.

During a protest against Islam by far-right activists in Molenbeek in Brussels yesterday a Muslim woman in a burqa was deliberately run over by a car. The passenger even took photos of the woman as she lay on the ground. People are seething after the recent bomb attacks on Brussels airport and a metro train. Molenbeek
is where the Paris bomber, Salah Abdeslam was captured last month. Just a few months back, rallies across Europe were welcoming migrants with great enthusiasm, except Hungary, which has been against them from the beginning. Then reports of rapes started pouring in, beginning with Cologne in Germany, along with terrorist attacks on Paris and Brussels and suddenly there is growing anxiety in Europe about the wisdom of allowing in so many migrants. Yesterday's hit and run on an innocent woman will be used as evidence by Muslims who see themselves as victims. Just as Pakistan claims to be a victim of terrorism rather than the planner, organiser and supplier of terror attacks, especially against India. The mystery is not that they keep attacking us, the real mystery is why we let them. We even allowed a bunch of these scoundrels into Pathankot Airbase but, as expected, they denied any proof of their involvement. We should declare Pakistan a terrorist state, cut off all contacts, build a fence along the border, lay land mines along the fence and shoot at anything that moves. The Chinese love them so channel the scum north into China. The trouble is that there are a lot of apologists for terrorists. The UN Commission on the Status of Women has named Israel as the worst offender against women's rights and not Saudi Arabia or Iran, or even China, which are the countries with the highest execution rates, with no exceptions for women. The policy of appeasing terrorists resulted in the Paris and Brussels attacks, because they were allowed to move around without restriction. Authorities are in a bind. They have to try to calm people's fears or else there will be more attacks against Muslims. The European Union was conceived to stop wars between European states by uniting people in a sort of commonwealth with free trade, free movement of people and a common currency in the Eurozone area, which earned a Nobel Peace Prize in 2012. No one foresaw that Jihadists will take advantage of this peaceful union to carry out terror attacks. The trouble is that by trying to minimize crimes by migrants they lose trust of the people who believe rumors spread by social media. Vigilante groups are springing up to stop the inflow of migrants. Each country is looking to its own security, hoping to deflect terrorist rage by being politically correct. If governments do not take collective action it will burn the whole world, like global warming. But elections are more important, until a nuclear attack takes place. That will wake everyone up. Till then we must wait and watch people dying.

Why blame a few bad apples when the entire basket is rotten?

Collapse of a bridge under construction in Kolkata killed 24 and injured over 70 people. It is a relief that hundreds did not die, given the population density in India and especially in Kolkata. Some employees of the company have been charged with murder and others may also face charges. The company constructing the bridge, IVRCL has refused to take any blame, hinting darkly at sabotage. The company owes over Rs 103 billion to a number of banks. The so-called promoter has only 8% equity in IVRCL, which makes him a minority shareholder, so why is he still running the company. It now appears that IVRCL has been blacklisted more than once by government agencies in other states for poor quality work and even death of workers due to negligence. Surely, the Chief Minister would have known about the company's record when she came into office in 2011 and should have terminated its contract. Vijay Mallya, who owes Rs 90 billion to banks, flew out of Delhi Airport with 11 bags and no one saw him. The Enforcement Directorate is now issuing summons after summons for him to appear for questioning. Scary, what? Mallya is not the only one with huge loans, his debt is small compared to what others owe. Mallya is in trouble because he gave personal guarantees to borrow money and he likes to show off his wealth. Couple of years ago rat poison in antibiotics killed 13 women in Chhattisgarh. The doctor was arrested even though he had no means of knowing what the medicines contained. In each case we see some people singled out for blame. Cases drag on for years and after sometime another disaster takes place and people forget the old ones, which drag on through the courts, until eventually they are be thrown out or the accused die of old age. So why waste police time with these charades? Because it allows the real culprits, politicians and civil servants, to avoid blame.  People are arrested, journalists write long articles about them, politicians of all parties rush to avail of the photo opportunity, a few hundred thousand rupees of taxpayer money is distributed to grateful families, while the real culprits go unpunished. Surely, it cannot be that bad? Or can it? One MLA of the Trinamul party stopped blood donation by workers of the CPM Party for the victims of the bridge collapse in Kokata because that might earn the CPM votes in this month's elections. Economists are aware of this tendency by politicians to blame a few 'bad apples' so that no blame attaches to them. The difference is that death is taken seriously in other countries. Maybe, because they have fewer people, while we have too many. Excess of people, zero value. Politicians rule.

Why is our government hostile to taxpayers?

In a chilling letter, reminiscent of brutal feudal barons of yore, the Revenue Secretary in the Finance Ministry has asked the Chairman of the Central Board of Direct Taxes, Atulesh Jindal to explain the " laxity shown " by field officers in collecting direct, or income, taxes. " The CBDT requested for reduction in BE target which was done. In spite of that it now appears to me that RE target may also not be achieved. If that happens, Board and field functionaries will have to explain why it happened. Responsibility will also have to be fixed," he wrote. Is he asking tax officers to beat up citizens to extract more taxes? What does 'BE' stand for? Blood extraction? Perhaps, His Excellency is worried about financing the humongous jump in salaries of non-productive civil servants by the Seventh Pay Commission. To intimidate citizens it has been decided that anyone earning more than Rs 5 million in a year will have to declare his net worth. Why? If anyone has some property lying around it could be worth Rs hundred million. Is that a crime? He would be paying property tax on it anyway. Even 2 years after the general election in 2014, 105 Lok Sabha MPs, about 20%, are yet to declare their assets, which is supposed to be mandatory before voting takes place. One rule for them and one rule for us, what? Telangana, a state already loaded with a debt of Rs 1.3 trillion, is seeking bank loans to increase salaries of MLAs by 400%. The Delhi Government, formed by the Aam Aadmi Party, which translates to a party for 'ordinary people', has the honor of being first off the block. The Bihari government of Mr Nitish Kumar distributed gifts to MLAs but has no money to pay teachers. Apparently this is for thanksgiving, which is only right because we, the people, are the turkeys. Taxpayers have been ordered to file their total income from interest earned from savings so that a few more rupees maybe wrung out of them. Since banks deduct tax at 10%, if total interest earned exceeds Rs 10,000 in one financial year, it is not possible to hide such income. It is not that the CBDT has collected less tax but it has collected way more than we are supposed to pay, because of the pernicious Tax Deduction at Source, or TDS, policy followed by our government, because it has had to refund Rs 650 billion to taxpayers already. It is such waste of time and money that it beggars belief. Perhaps, the esteemed Secretary has not accounted for the fact that people are paying less tax because those of us who do not work for the government have become poorer because of high inflation and very high indirect taxes. This is reflected in the fact that people are saving less. And if we save less we earn less interest. It is definitely not a government of or by the people, it is not even a government for the people. Isn't it time to stop imitating the British? Be Indian.