Monday, November 17, 2025

India+EAEU vs US+EU.

"US President Donald Trump has thrown his weight behind a new wave of hard-hitting sanctions aimed at isolating Russia, warning that countries maintaining trade ties with Moscow - and potentially Iran - will be 'very severely sanctioned'." "A bill introduced by Senator Lindsey Graham calls for a 500% tariff on secondary purchases and reselling of Russian oil, a proposal with broad support in the Senate Foreign Relations Committee." TOI. "India's goods exports to the US, its largest foreign market, dropped sharply by 20% in September and nearly 40% in the last four months," as Trump imposed a 50% tariff on Indian exports, which "includes a 25% penalty for Delhi's refusal to stop buying oil from Russia." BBC. Can the US trade with Pakistan while stomping jackbooted on our sovereign right to trade with our longtime friend Russia? And, can the Indian economy afford to give up trading with Russia? "India's merchandise trade deficit widened to a record high of $41.68 billion in October, up from $32.15 billion in September, driven largely by an increase in gold and silver imports, government data showed." Economists had expected a deficit of $28.8 billion in October, but "India's exports were down 11.8% to $34.38 billion, while imports went up 16.63% to $76.06 billion." ET.  In fact, "India, the second-biggest buyer of Russian oil, spent as much as 2.5 billion euros on purchases of crude oil from Moscow in October, ahead of new sanctions being slapped on Russian entities." DC. Not just oil, "Russia has submitted a proposal to India for the supply and local production of its fifth-generation SU-57 fighter jets." "The source added that Russia will complete deliveries of five S-400 'Triumf' surface-to-air missile systems to India by 2026." India Today. India is looking to spend Rs 100 billion for the S-400 air defence system which "brought down five to six Pakistani fighter aircraft and one spy plane at a distance of over 300 km deep inside Pakistan during the four-day conflict and has been termed a game-changer by the Indian Air Force." ET. In addition, "India and Russia reiterated their resolve to achieve $100 billion bilateral trade by 2030 in Moscow...and reviewed next steps for the India-Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) free trade agreement in goods, the commerce ministry said." HT. The EAEU is trade bloc consisting of Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Russia and the bloc is negotiating free trade agreements with India, Indonesia, Israel, Mongolia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). wikipedia. These countries are not insignificant, so will the US impose sanctions on all of them? Not just that, India's success against US-supplied fighter jets in Pakistan will surely encourage other countries to buy the S-400 system to protect themselves against NATO threats. Meanwhile, the beneficiary of all these sanctions - "Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is facing the biggest corruption scandal of his six-year presidency, as investigators accuse one of his former business partners of leading a multimillion-dollar bribery scheme, Kyiv Independent reported." ET. There is no reason why India should lose money in support of this regime. As a sweetener, India is to buy 2.2 million tonnes of liquified petroleum gas (LPG) per annum from the US, equivalent to 10% of our imports. ABP. "India's Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal said India wants a fair, equitable, balanced trade deal with the US and it will not compromise." NDTV. Or else, we expand the EAEU?          

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