Toss a coin.

 "India's retail inflation slumped to a record low of 0.25% in October, driven by a sharp fall in food prices and tax cuts on consumer goods, paving the way for a rate cut by the central bank in December." This may offset the effects of US tariffs. "The economy, which grew at 7.8% in the April-June period is seen slowing over the second half of this year." Reuters. This should be a cue for the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to cut its policy rates, after the meeting on 1 October when, "RBI has kept the repo rate unchanged at 5.50% with a neutral stance. It signals a balanced approach that supports economic momentum while ensuring financial stability." pib.gov.in. At the end of October, "The US Federal Reserve pushed forward with an interest rate cut as inflation fears continue to take a backseat to concerns about a stalling labor market." The Fed cut its Funds rate by 0.25% to 3.75%-4%. BBC. One day ago, "The US Fed will again lower its key interest rate by 25 basis points next month to underpin a weakening labor market, according to 80% of economists polled by Reuters. However, a few hours later, a growing number of Fed policymakers are undecided about a rate cut in December, "Citing worries about inflation and signs of relative stability in the labor market after two US interest rates cuts this year." Reuters. The RBI could still go ahead with a 25 basis points cut which will keep the difference with the US at 1.50-1.25% and hope that bondholders do not dump Indian government bonds in favor of US Treasuries to compensate for a falling value of the rupee against the dollar. India does not publish its Core Inflation rate, which leaves out volatile food and energy, "focusing only on items which have fairly predictable price movements (Investopedia). According to the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE), core inflation in October was "at 4.3%, which is far from insignificant. More importantly, while headline CPI has largely shown a falling trend in the last few months, core inflation has been broadly stable in the ballpark of 4%-4.5%," wrote Roshan Kishore. India is not alone, consumer prices are falling across Asia. "One culprit is Chinese overcapacity, which has entrenched deflation domestically. It has also put pressure on prices elsewhere: since 2022 China's export-price index has fallen by 15%, even as exports have risen overall." HT. "China is gripped by an insidious problem that is eroding its economy: It is trapped in a vicious cycle of competition so fierce that it is destroying profits, driving a brutal rat race among workers and fueling a deflationary spiral." China calls it "Involution". Mint. China is exporting its deflation to the rest of the world. "Deflation, a reduction in the prices of goods and services, increases the purchasing power of money." Investopedia. Falling prices should be welcome as people are able to buy more for the same income, thus increasing their standard of living. The problem is that people postpone purchases to get even greater discounts later and companies cut production as profits drop. People lose jobs as the economy shrinks, as exemplified by Japan's Lost Decades (wikipedia). So, to cut or not to cut, that is the question. How is the RBI to decide? Tossing a coin is an option.