Thursday, June 05, 2025
Speaking of miracles.
"We are the fourth largest economy [overtaking Japan and behind the US, China and Germany] as I speak. We are a four trillion dollar economy as I speak," said NITI Aayog CEO BVR Subrahmanyam. If you speak long enough, it might happen. "The reality, however, is that despite a strong 7.4% growth in Q4 FY25 and annual growth of 6.5%, we still have some way to go before we get that 4th-largest economy tag." The trouble is that "while the services contributed 57% of FY25 GDP, though it employs a little over 30% of the population, agriculture accounted for 16% of GDP, while supporting as much as 46% of the populations." As a result, in terms of per capita GDP, India is at 136 in nominal GDP and 119 in PPP terms, wrote Mythili Bhusnurmath. "GDP growth rate for FY25 has been revised upwards from 6.3% to 6.5%." FY24 growth was revised upwards from 8.2% to 9.2%. "The average turns out to be 7.85% - way above the 6.5% long-term trend." "It is well above the 7% benchmark for a 'miracle economy'," wrote Swaminathan Aiyar. "Industrial production, non-oil imports, vehicle registration and air passenger traffic all points in the same direction: upward. Foreign institutional investors have returned as net buyers of Indian equities." But, "India faces a potential growth puzzle. Despite dramatic improvement in physical and digital infrastructure over the past decade, recent estimates suggest potential growth of only around 6%, well below the 7.5-8% range enacted a decade ago," wrote Prof Prachi Mishra. "India will witness the world's fastest growth in the number of ultra-high-net-worth individuals (UHNWIs), with their population expected to surge by 50% between 2023 and 2028, according to a report by McKenzie & Company and BoF." ET. "Fresh graduates at some of India's top colleges are enduring one of their toughest placement years yet, with intake by prominent recruiters falling by more than half, according to college sources and top company officials." ET. Every country in the world wants to increase manufacturing to create jobs. "The supreme irony is that we live in an era in which manufacturing produces fewer and fewer jobs in factories because of the increasing use of robots." "The most recent figures from the International Federation of Robotics released in November 2024 show that South Korea leads the way with 1,012 robots per 10,000 employees. China is third with 470 robots for every 10,000 workers," wrote Rahul Jacob. "The new 50% US tariffs will hit India's $4.56 bn steel and aluminium exports." Also "Between FY2024 and FY2025, India's steel and aluminium exports to EU fell by 24.4%, dropping from $7.71bn to $5.82bn." The government will need to negotiate hard, wrote Ajay Srivastava. A 50% increase in ultra-rich individuals and sudden jumps in the GDP in the last quarter. Is that a 'miracle economy'? Show us jobs, income and consumption. Miracles are unique. We need steady.
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