"The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC)...slashed the repo rate by 50 basis points (bps) to 5.5%," and "In a major liquidity boosting move, RBI announced a phased 100 bps cut in the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) - from 4% to 3% - to be implemented in four tranches of 25 bps each starting in September." ET. In view of RBI's actions, "SBI (State Bank of India) estimates this move will release around Rs 2.5 trillion in primary liquidity into the banking system by the end of December." As banks lower lending rates they will lower interest rates on deposits, which have fallen 30-70 bps since February, as well. CNBC. "India's 10-year bond yields have already been in free-fall mode for the last three months. It has dropped from a high of 6.789% to current levels of 6.222%." "This gush of fresh liquidity could reshape flows back into capital markets. No wonder the primary market is already starting to heat up with a series of IPOs lined up to absorb this liquidity." "The time has come for the private sector to lean forward - to invest, to build and to create." MC. The Budget 2025 increased the threshold for income tax, so that people earning up to Rs 1.2 million will have to pay no tax. Mint. "Consumer spending out of new earnings, or through tax cuts, add to the bottom line of the corporate sector, making it more willing to invest in new plants and machinery, and to hire more workers. Thus, a virtuous cycle of spending is created, which creates more jobs, which creates even more spending, and so on." "But even as taxpayers saw a tax cut, key government programs such as the rural employment guarantee program (MGNREGS) or income transfer to farmers (PM-KISAN) saw little or no growth, even as overall spending on social sectors has declined in recent years." Mint. "Even to seasoned investment professionals, India's lofty equity valuations are a head-scratcher." Nothing justifies "paying 33-34 times estimated earnings for Birla's UltraTech Cement Ltd, or Adani's Ambuja Cements Ltd. Not When China's Anhui Conch Cement Co trades below a price-to-earnings multiple of 10 in Hong Kong." "Since domestic mutual funds aren't allowed to invest freely in foreign stocks, their managers must take the deluge of cash coming their way (nearly $50 billion over 12 months), and join the party," wrote Andy Mukherjee. In May, "The National Statistical Office (NSO) released the National Account Statistics (NSA) tables for 2025 which has data up to 2023-24." This showed that the share of outstanding personal loans in private final consumption expenditure (PFCE) has doubled between 2011-12 and 2024-25. HT. "Unsecured loans are not backed by any security and include loans like Credit Cards, Student Loans and Personal Loans." Interest rates are higher because there is no collateral. ICICI Bank. "While only 2% of the population pays income tax, nearly half of the companies that file tax returns (ITRs) pay nothing at all." NDTV. With yields on US 10-year Treasury at 4.494% (CNBC), further reduction in yields on Indian government bonds may reduce the spread (Investopedia) to unattractive levels and result in foreign investors selling out. An ocean of liquidity may not increase consumer spending when they are neck deep in debt. The private sector will not increase capacity unless demand increases. All it will do is allow the rich to borrow cheaply to buy expensive assets as Leena Tiwari who bought two sea-facing luxury duplex apartments in Mumbai for Rs 6.39 billion (HT). The rich will get richer.
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