Financial liabilities.

"India's economy continues to demonstrate resilience amid global uncertainties, as the countries real GDP grew by 7.4% in the fourth quarter of FY25, bringing the full-year growth to 6.5%, surpassing expectations, according to a CareEdge Economic Pathways report." ET. "According to a report by CareEdge Ratings, net household savings is at 18.1% of gross domestic product (GDP) in fiscal 2024, lowest since FY17." "Financial savings at 11.4% are at their highest since FY21. Financial liabilities, due to higher debt, have risen to 6.2% in FY24, compared to 3.2% in FY14." NDTV. Mr Narendra Modi was elected prime minister for the first time in May 2014. wikipedia. FY14 extended from 1 April 2013 to 31 March 2014, and so was the last year before Mr Modi's reign. "The trend is characteristic of a developed economy and is not particularly alarming, said Rajani Sinha, chief economist at CareEdge." But, India is not a developed economy. "In 2007, India moved to the lower-middle income country and since then has remained there. India's per capita GDP stood at $2,390 in 2022." To become upper-middle income, per capita GDP has to reach $4,466-$13,485. To become a $30 trillion economy by 2047, "the Indian economy will have to grow at 9.7% per annum over FY24-FY47 in current USD terms." BT. India's merchandise exports fell 2.17% year-on-year (yoy) to $38.73 billion while imports fell 1.7% yoy to $60.61 billion. "Cumulatively, during Arpil-May 2025-26, exports increased 3.11% to $77.19 billion, while imports rose 8% to $125.52 billion." TT. However, "India's merchandise exports to the US rose by 16.93% to USD 8.83 billion in May, while imports dipped by 5.76% to USD 3.62 billion." During April-May, exports increased 21.78% to $17.25 billion, while imports rose 25.8% to $8,87 billion. ET. Not exactly music to US President Donald Trump's ears. "When Indian and American negotiators sat across the table in New Delhi from June 5 to 7," "The long-pending limited trade deal between India and the United States - which had simmered unresolved since Trump's first tenure - was back on the table, but under new political compulsions and strategic calculations. India and the US aim to double bilateral trade to $500 billion by 2030," wrote Anilesh S Mahajan. India cannot agree to US demands on less control on US tech firms, more intellectual property rights for US pharmaceuticals, higher imports of US agricultural produce and international arbitration in case of trade disputes. Which essentially means that India cannot concede to any US demands. Already the US is to impose a 3.5% tax on remittances by Indians living there. In 2023-24 total remittance from the US was $32 billion. ET. At the moment the Iran-Israel war is unlikely to have any major impact on the Indian economy but, if the conflict affects oil supply, prices could rise sharply and cause a spike in inflation. ET. If the US increases tariffs on Indian products, trade deficit and current account deficit could go up. The rupee could come under pressure. A weaker rupee will make inflation worse. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has cut its policy rate by a cumulative 100 basis points in 2025 (HT), and transferred an eye-watering Rs 2.69 trillion dividend to the government for the last financial year (ET) so will it cope with any sudden fall in the rupee? Hope we don't have to find out. Already people are borrowing to spend. We don't want to be left holding the bag (Collins).