Need friends to use nukes.

On 22 June, the US bombed three nuclear facilities in Iran. "The operation - codenamed Midnight Hammer - involved 125 US military aircraft and targeted three nuclear facilities." "Fourteen GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrators (MOPs) were dropped on the Fordow site," which "weigh 13,000 kg and are able to penetrate 18m (60ft) of concrete or 61m (200ft) of earth before exploding." BBC. "Iran was bombed blue by Israel and the United States of America, simply because it does not have a nuclear weapon." The Print. The US is the only nation on earth to have used atom bombs on Hiroshima on 6 August and on Nagasaki on 9 August 1945. wikipedia. But, they were comprehensively defeated by the Vietcong despite indiscriminate bombing and the deaths (BBC) of over one million Vietnamese. The panicked flight from Saigon (gettyimages) is history. Nuclear weapons and MOPs did not prevent a US defeat in Afghanistan and a swift takeover by the Taliban in a matter of days. Arab News. Mr K Subrahmanyam, an IAS officer, was an ardent believer in India developing nuclear weapons after the Chinese tested one. wikipedia. "To save yourself from attack, get armed with nuclear weapons," he said. Within two weeks of India testing its nuclear devices, Pakistan, with Chinese help, tested at least five bombs of its own. ET. Nuclear weapons have not protected India from Pakistan using regular terrorist attacks within India in a policy of 'death by a thousand cuts'. wikipedia. Pakistani troops occupied Kargil district of Ladakh in 1999. Over 500 Indian troops died and 1,363 were wounded in pushing the Pakistanis back beyond the Line of Control (LOC). wikipedia. During Operation Sindoor, following a terrorist attack at Pahalgam killing 26 Indian civilians, "No Pakistan military facilities have been targeted." pib.gov.in. However, Pakistan had no hesitation in attacking Indian armed forces with the help of Chinese satellite tracking. The Asia Live. "A senior Indian defence official posted in Indonesia has said that the Indian Air Force (IAF) lost some fighter jets during the May 7 strikes on terror camps in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) because the country's political leadership had restricted attacks on Pakistani military targets. ET. Why are our leaders so terrified that they are willing to sacrifice our pilots so as not to provoke Pakistan? Because we are actually terrified of what China might do to protect Pakistan. Apparently, US strikes on Iran will make North Korea more determined to hang on to nuclear weapons. CNN. North Korea is forced to continue its nuclear program by China as a buffer against the Mutual Defense Treaty between the US and South Korea (wikipedia). China is the real hostile rogue state. However, Iran does not share a border with China and has no real friends. Nuclear weapons will be of no use to it. Just like they are not protecting India against Pakistan. Just as they did not prevent humiliating defeats for the US in Vietnam and Afghanistan. Iran's people are suffering. Unnecessarily.     

Robust growth.

"India will continue its robust economic growth trajectory and outpace major industrialised G7 countries, supported by strong domestic demand, sound macroeconomic fundamentals and a favorable demographic profile, the PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry (PHDCCI) said in a report." "India's merchandise trade with G7 nations has grown 61%, from $154 billion in FY21 to $248 in FY25, while maintaining a steady trade surplus." TOI. Despite such a rosy outlook, "India's external debt rose 10% to $736.3 billion at the end of March 2025 from $668.8 billion a year earlier," according to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). "The debt-to-GDP ratio also inched up to 19.1% from 18.5% in FY24." "India's trade deficit is likely to widen to USD 300 billion in the financial year 2025-26, even though oil prices are expected to remain moderate," according to an ICICI report. "The projected deficit would be 7% of the country's GDP." ET. India's private consumption has increased to 61.4% of nominal GDP in FY25 from 60.2% in FY24, the highest in the past two decades. Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) has grown to 29.9% of GDP, "higher than the pre-pandemic average of 28.6% during FY16 toe FY20. The Hindu. "Prime Minister Narendra Modi...said that 950 million people in India are currently benefiting from one social security scheme or another, a significant rise from less than 250 million who were covered by such schemes before 2015." ET. Handouts free up capital in the hands of the recipients and allow increased discretionary  spending that shows up as increased consumption. But are they productive? Chairman of Larsen and Toubro SN Soubramanyan "said it is difficult to get workers for the construction industry as they are reluctant to travel from their hometown due to preference for comfort." This was because of so many welfare schemes. NDTV. GFCF denotes the acquisition of new or existing fixed assets by industry and households. wikipedia. "Unsold housing stock stood at 5,59,808 units at the end of the latest March quarter, down 4% annually, on strong sales, according to Anarock." ET. "India's metro housing market is a rigged game, according to one of country's top finfluencers, where few hold a staggering grip over real estate, and black money keeps prices inflated while everyday buyers bleed cash chasing a dream they can't afford." BT. "A child in urban India now comes with a price tag that is making many pause. Nearly Rs 4.5 million - that's the figure Bengaluru-based startup founder Meenal Goel laid out in a viral LinkedIn post." ET. That may be a conservative figure but it means that educated professionals are choosing to remain childless. The middle class will gradually disappear. "The latest Henley Private Wealth Migration Report 2025 revealed that approximately 3,500 High-Net-Worth Individuals are expected to leave India and settle abroad in 2025. In 2024, the figure was 4,300, a decrease from the 5,100 who left in 2023." ET. We are boasting about our "robust economic growth" with 950 million out of our population of 1,460 million (worldometer), that is 65% of Indians, on handouts. Robust growth of handouts. But, is it productive?

Hyphenating ourselves.

"New Delhi, India's population is estimated to reach 1.46 billion in 2025, continuing to be the highest in the world, according to a new UN demographic report," which "found that India's total fertility rate has declined to 1.9 births per woman, falling below the replacement level of 2.1." HT. "After keeping India out of the G7 summit, Canada has relented or rather made to toe the line of other members, to extend an invitation." Because "After the successful conduct of G20 as its president and including the African Union representing 55 African countries as a member, India has emerged as the leader of the developing economies and the Global South," wrote Seshadri Chari. As a swayamsevak of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) and member of the National Executive Committee of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) (wikipedia), Prime Minister Narendra Modi's party, Mr Chari forgets to mention that Mr Modi was invited on 5 June, long after invitations to other non-members had gone out and "Law enforcement cooperation was reportedly a 'condition' that (Canadian Prime Minister Mark) Carney laid down for inviting Modi to the G-7 summit." The Diplomat. A case of 'Humble Pie' (wikipedia)? True, PM Modi "did get a last minute invitation to join the G-7, but not as a participant - only as an observer." "The narrative was that he is too important not to be invited and that India is not isolated, or never was." But, "The present 'hyphenation' of India with Pakistan, an almost failed state, is a deliberate insult inflicted on Modi's India to cut to a realistic size and to taunt a drum-beaten narrative that we are almost a superpower," wrote Jawhar Sircar. It is possible that by constantly referring to Pakistan we are 'hyphenating' ourselves with that failed state. 8 May, "India and Pakistan accuse each other of 'violations' after ceasefire deal." BBC. 11 May, " 'Act responsibly': India calls out Pakistan's ceasefire breach, says forces asked to respond strongly." News18. 24 May, "India called out Pakistan's grossly hypocritical behavior at the UN Security Council," saying "the Pakistani Army deliberately shelled Indian border villages earlier this month killing civilians." TNIE. 26 June, ""Rajnath Singh refuses to sign SCO statement as cross-border (meaning Pakistan) concerns remain unaddressed." HT. Pakistan not only rejects India's charges but accused India of involvement in suicide bombing on a school bus in Balochistan. TOI. On 12 June, "A top US general has described Pakistan as a 'phenomenal partner in the counter-terrorism world' and stressed that the United States 'have to have' a relationship with both Pakistan and India." ET. Not just 'hyphenated' but Siamese twins. By constantly whining about Pakistan we show ourselves as weak and helpless. 1.46 billion, but afraid. And so, ignored. 

Interest rate cut to 5.5%, millionaires to increase 55%.

"United States President Donald Trump...indicated a major trade agreement with India could be on the way. Speaking at the 'Big Beautiful Bill' event at the White House, Trump confirmed a deal with China and hinted at an even more significant development involving India." ET. Sounds ominous. Very ominous. Because, "Trump...said that he was calling off trade negotiations with Canada immediately, citing its digital services tax. He added that the neighboring country would be informed of the tariff rate within a week." ET. "The Indian government has removed the 6% equalisation levy on online advertisements starting 1 April 2025," which will benefit global tech companies like Google, Meta and Amazon. A 2% equalisation levy was withdrawn in July 2024. BS. Yesterday, "Trump said he plans to send out a letter over the next week and a half telling countries what US tariffs rate they will have to pay." ET. Fortunately, India has nothing to worry about. "S&P Global Ratings has revised India's GDP growth projection upwards for the ongoing fiscal year to 6.5%, considering factors such as anticipated normal monsoon, reduced crude oil prices and monetary easing." TOI. Stock markets are soaring. The Nifty 50 has reached its highest level of 2025 at 25,549, just 2.7% shy off its peak of 26,277 in September, while the Sensex is at 83,755, just 2.6% short of its September peak of 85,978. Mint. "A staggering Rs 1 trillion worth of shares have been dumped by promoters, private equity firms and other large strategic investors," as "Promoters alone have offloaded shares worth about Rs 610 billion, while PE/VC firms have exited nearly Rs 280 billion. Add to that the Reliance Industries' Rs 95.80 billion offloading in Asian Paints and smattering of block deals by other strategic investors." ET. "In June, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) pulled out over $1.06 billion from Indian debt, after a sharp outflow of $3.03 billion in April. May saw a small inflow of $220 million." This is mainly due to narrowing spread in yields between Indian government bonds and US Treasuries. MC. To increase their returns, "Investors in India are increasingly turning to BBB- rated corporate bonds due to their higher yields, as the benchmark 10-year government bond yields have fallen." medial.app. India needs private sector investment. Sanjay Malhotra, the new Reserve Bank of India governor, has thrown the kitchen sink at the problem by cutting interest rate by 1% to 5.5% and flooded the banking system with liquidity. But, "The private sector's capacity-expansion intentions have fallen to a three-year low. Banks' exposure to industries that used to be some of their biggest borrowers - roads, power, telecommunications, ports, airports, construction, property builders - is down to 11% of their loan book, half of what it was a decade ago," wrote Andy Mukherjee. All this money is going somewhere. "India is witnessing a sharp rise in the number of high-net-worth individuals, with the millionaire population expected to grow over 55% between 2024 and 2029." TOI. Like water, money flows down. Into deep pockets. From the rest.

A lasting impression.

"Amazon founder Jeff Bezos and journalist Lauren Sanchez have invited scores of VIPs from film, finance and show business to Venice this week for three days of wedding celebrations." Dubbed "Wedding of the Century", it is expected to cost 40-48 million euros ($46.5-$55.6 million), 30 water taxis have been booked and 90 private jets will land at Venice and nearby airports. Reuters. Bezos is the 4th richest man in the world with $231.4 billion, with India's richest man Mukesh Ambani at number 16 with $112.8 billion. Forbes. In 2019, "Jeff Bezos, and his wife MacKenzie have agreed to a record-breaking divorce settlement of at least $35 billion." BBC. This time, teams of lawyers for Bezos and Sanchez have designed the most complex prenuptial agreement ever. "Sanchez could walk away with $1 million for every year they are married, plus property." News18. Writing a will seems to be easier than getting married. This marriage comes after, "Alex Soros, the son of Democratic Party's patron George Soros, tied the knot with Huma Abedin, a political aide of Hillary Clinton, in what the New York times described as 'the wedding of the liberal royalty'." Guests included Hillary Clinton, President Bill Clinton, Senate minority leader Chuck Schumer, former Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Nicky Hilton Rothschild and Vogue editor Anne Wintour. TOI. All this is nothing compared to the wedding of Anant Ambani, son of Mukesh Ambani, to Radhika Merchant. which cost an estimated $600 to $1 billion. TOI. To lead up to the wedding, 1,200 guests were invited to pre-wedding celebrations at Jamnagar in Gujarat, lasting three days and including performances by artists like Rihanna. BI. For 10 days, from 25 February to 5 March, the Jamnagar Airport, which primarily serves the Indian Air Force because of its proximity to the Pakistan border, was converted to a commercial airport to allow guests to land their private planes. The Wire. This was followed by a second pre-wedding with 800 guests in a luxury cruise liner which sailed for 4,380 km  from Italy to France and back. Mint. The wedding took place over three days in Mumbai and "Vogue was granted the world exclusive inside the event." How else would we know that Radhika wore a crystal outfit by Abu Jani Sandeep Khosla to make a "lasting impression", changed into a metal mesh saree by Maneesh Malhotra, which was "quite heavy, but worth every moment", then sherara pants by Anamika Khanna with a dupatta of flowers and for the holy moment "Radhika wore a one-of-a-kind couture look by Abu Jani and Sandeep Khosla in red and white, honoring the Gujarati tradition of panetar. Vogue. Too much to digest. That's the lasting impression. 

Everyone wins.

"A ceasefire between Israel and Iran appeared to be holding after days of conflict between the Middle East's arch rivals." CBS. This was after, "At about 6.40 pm ET, or 2.10 am in Iran, the lead B-2 dropped two 'bunker-buster' bombs known as the GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrators, or MOPs, on the site at Fordow." "More than 125 US aircraft participated in this mission," 14 MOPs were dropped on Fordow and Natanz and "More than 75 precision-guided weapons were used in the attack." CBS. Each GBU-57 cost $20 million, so 14 bombs work out to a cool $280 million. BT. However, after all this drama, "The US strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities have only set the country's program back by months, not destroyed it, according to an early Pentagon intelligence review." ET. Even if the sites have been destroyed "The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) acknowledged just five days into the conflict its inspectors had lost track of Iran's 409 kilograms (902 pounds) of highly enriched uranium - enough for 10 nuclear warheads." ET. No matter. US strikes have been an amazing success. Trump can ease sanctions on Iranian oil (NDTV) which he would dearly love to do. Already crude oil has crashed to $66 a barrel from $79 a barrel a few days back. ET. If Iran starts selling oil, prices will fall even further. Lower oil prices will bring down inflation, potentially canceling the price pressure of higher tariffs. Trump has been demanding the Federal Reserve should cut interest rates but Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that prices could rise because of tariffs and "the central bank was is no rush to ease borrowing costs in the meantime." Reuters. If cheaper oil brings down inflation the Fed would have no reason not to cut its policy rate. Lower interest rate in the US may weaken the dollar which is trading at a 3-1/2-year low against the euro (ET) and the dollar index is down 5.7% to 103.72 from 109.96 in mid-January. Mint. Trump wants a weaker dollar to help US manufacturing exports. Outlook. The Iranian regime will gain from the lifting of sanctions. Iran's currency the rial has fallen to over 42,000 to one dollar (xe.com) and its inflation rate is at 43.3% (imf.org). Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) denied reports that Israel is running low on missile interceptors. Times of Israel. But, interception has not been fully successful because 28 Israelis - all but one of them civilians - have been killed and over 3,000 injured by Iranian missiles. Times of Israel. So Israel can claim victory, even if not complete. Pakistan is happy because its Army Chief Asim Munir was invited for lunch with Trump at the White House (NDTV) and may have been entrusted with passing on US plans to Iran which allowed Iran to move all contents from the Fordow nuclear site by trucks (NY Post). It's win-win-win-win for all four. That makes Donald Trump a genius. As for India, we could be facing 500% tariffs if a new bipartisan bill for increased sanctions on Russia is passed. ET. Will we surrender to US bullying and give up Russia which, during the Soviet Union era, staunchly supported us. That will need guts.   

Protection, not aspiration.

"In a role reversal, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) announced...a variable rate reverse repo (VRRR) auction, a measure through which the regulator sucks out excess liquidity from the system." "Since January, the RBI has injected Rs 9.5 trillion into the banking system," so that "The liquidity surplus averaged Rs 2.76 trillion in the month of June." FE. The RBI has cut its policy rate by a cumulative 100 basis points, from 6.5% to 5.5%, this year. This move has reduced interest on loans as well as deposits, which has created a mismatch between credit and deposits. Mint. Banks cannot increase lending unless it has deposits so the RBI is to cut the Cash Reserve Ratio, which is the portion of deposits that a bank must retain with the RBI  (cleartax.in), by a total of 100 basis points, from 4% to 3%, starting in September (ET). This is supposed to add Rs 2.5 trillion liquidity into the banking system. If there is so much excess liquidity in banks that the RBI has to reduce it by Rs 1 trillion now, then why increase it again starting in September? While, "The share of household term deposits...has decreased to 45.77% at the end of 2025 financial year, down from 50.54% in 2020," "the number of mutual funds accounts have surged" with, retail investors holding 91% of 230 million mutual funds folios as of April 2025, and assets under management (AUM) have tripled to Rs 69.50 trillion from Rs 22.26 trillion at the end of FY20. India Today. A relatively low interest rate penalises savers and forces them to invest in risky assets, such as the investments in subprime assets in the US in 2003-2004. Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis. At 18.1% of GDP, net household savings are the lowest since FY17, while "Financial liabilities, due to higher debt, have risen to 6.2% in FY24, compared to 3.2% in FY14. NDTV. "The revival in household demand across India remains fragile as high levels of debt and weak income continue to pose serious challenges, according to a recent report by Systematix Research." "In urban areas, consumer sentiment remains low, affected by weak job conditions and high prices." ANI. "Fueled by smartphone penetration, fintech innovation, and the promise of 'frictionless' borrowing, millions of young Indians are swiping their way into EMIs, micro-loans, and Buy-Now-Pay-Later (BNPL) schemes without a second thought. But this revolution comes with a dark underbelly - one filled with hidden interest rates, app-based harassment, spiraling debt cycles, and long-perm financial damage." Mint. So why the "jumbo rate cut" of 50 basis points by the RBI, when the economy grew by a whopping 7.4% in January to March 2025 (Reuters)? RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra said that the growth was lower than the RBI's "aspirations" amid a challenging backdrop of global uncertainty. Reuters. Is the RBI expected to have "aspirations" when it is not an individual, a business or a political party? Although the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation fell to 2.8% in May 2025, core inflation has been above 4% for four consecutive months. The Hindu. The RBI should aim for protection. Not delusion of aspiration.    

The Don and Dan show.

Entertainment is over. "US President announced yesterday that its ally Israel and Iran have agreed to a 'complete and total ceasefire' which would be phased out over 24 hours. He called the conflict between the Asian rivals the '12-day war'." TOI. Minutes after Trump's announcement, "An Iraqi military official said that an unidentified drone had targeted Camp Taji, a military installation located to the north of Baghdad," hitting a surface-to-air missile launcher and radar sites. HT. According to US Air Force Gen Dan 'Razin' Caine, "B-2 Spirit stealth bombers dropped fourteen 30,000-pound GBU-57/B Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) bunker buster bombs on Iran's Fordow and Natanz nuclear facilities." More than 125 aircraft were involved and more than two dozen "Tomahawk land attack cruise missiles (TLAMS) launched from a single submarine somewhere in the region." twz.com. MOPs and TLAMS fired by the aptly named 'Razin' (completely destroy) Dan. Americans sure know how to make a drama out of a damp squib. "Iran's Red Crescent Chief said there were no fatalities from US strikes on nuclear facilities, while the Health Ministry reported 430 civilians killed since Israel launched attacks on June 13." Iran Wire. "Hassan Abedini, the deputy political director of Iran's state broadcaster, claimed the three sites targeted by the US had been evacuated a 'while ago', and that Iran 'didn't suffer a major blow because the materials had already been taken out'." BBC. This is borne out by the fact that "Satellite images appeared to show scores of trucks lined up at Iran's Fordow nuclear facility just days before the US carried out its large-scale airstrikes," and "The vehicles, which came and went over a 24-hour stretch, appeared to move unidentified contents roughly half a mile away." NY Post. So near and yet, not touched. If Fordow was active some uranium gas would surely have escaped but, "Multiple Gulf nations have confirmed that no abnormal radiation has been detected in the region following US strikes." "The targeted facilities reportedly include the underground uranium enrichment facility at Fordow, as well as sites in Isfahan and Natanz." TOI. Obviously, Iran had been fully informed about US intentions and this explains why Trump hosted Pakistan Army Chief Asim Munir for lunch at the White House last week. NDTV. "Trump said he was honored to meet Mr Munir the two had discussed Iran, which he said Pakistan knew better than most." Indeed they do. "Behind Pakistan's rhetorical support for Iran lies a complex web of shared threats, historical affinities, economic dependencies and strategic repositioning that defy easy categorisation." ET. Israel is suffering casualties from Iranian missiles and needs a rest, Iran gets to keep its enriched uranium and hope for easing of sanctions, the US puts on a choreographed show and Pakistan becomes important again. We will wait for a serial on streaming services (wikipedia) with plenty of posturing, saluting, shouting and fireworks. What will it be called? Suggest - 'A Polite War'. Or 'The Don and Dan show'.      

A useless waste.

"Early Sunday (22 June), US pilots dropped 30,000 pound bombs on two underground enrichment facilities in Iran," while, "Supporting the surprise offensive, American sailors fired dozens of cruise missiles from a submarine at another key site." However, "Both Iranian authorities and the UN nuclear watchdog reported no immediate signs of radioactive contamination at the targeted sites." ET. The GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator, or MOP, is 20.5 feet in length and 31.5 inches in diameter, weighs just under 30,000 pounds including 5,300 pounds of explosive material and is designed to penetrate up to 200 feet underground before exploding. CBS. The Fordow facility is 30 miles northeast of the holy city of Qom and buried 80 to 90 meters (260 to 300 feet) into a mountain. Its 3,000 centrifuges can enrich uranium up to 60%. Traces of uranium enriched to 83.7% were recently discovered there. It can make enough weapons-grade uranium to build nine nuclear weapons. thejc.com. Enrichment of uranium is the process of isolating uranium-235 from the heavier uranium-238 by centrifuging. "They take uranium (in gas form) and use rotors to spin it at 50,000 to 70,000 rotations per minute," so that "The heavier uranium-238 moves to the edges of the centrifuge, leaving the uranium-235 in the middle." The Conversation. Both Saudi Arabia's Nuclear and Radiological Commission and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) have found no sign of radioactive contamination following the bombing. Saudi Gazette. If the uranium was in gas form surely some of it would have escaped and been detected in surrounding areas. So, does lack of any sign of radiation indicate that the bombs did not penetrate deep enough to damage the centrifuges or that the Iranians had already moved the enriched uranium to an unknown secret site? Apparently, Iran had "removed 400 kg, or roughly 880 pounds, of uranium enriched to 60% purity. That is just below the 90% that is usually used in nuclear weapons." Mint. "Iran has responded furiously to the overnight US airstrikes on three of its nuclear sites, vowing what it calls 'everlasting consequences'." It is already attacking Israel, and deployed the Kheibar Shaken missile which has a range of 1,450 km and runs on solid fuel. "Its top speed exceeds 19,500 km/h outside the atmosphere and nearly 9,800 km/h within" and can evade "Israeli defence systems like Iron Dome, David's Sling or even the US made Patriot system." ET. But will Iran attack US troops based in the Middle East with the possibility of fierce reprisals? It can use proxies like the Houthis, resort to cyberattacks or attack US ships. The most effective would be the blocking of the Strait of Hormuz, which would stop 20% of the world's oil and may cause a recession. But Iran's own oil also uses the Strait. BBC. The world has reacted generally with a shrug, with oil prices up by about a couple of dollars per barrel (oil price.com).  Israel is believed to possess 90 nuclear warheads. NBC. The US has wasted hundreds of millions of dollars to bomb an empty site. Iran has stupidly destroyed its economy and the lives of its citizens trying to build a bomb it cannot possibly use without facing annihilation from Israel, the US and may be even the UK and France. And the extermination of the Ayatollahs. That's probably what Iran needs.    

A belated advisory.

The US State Department has issued a sudden level-2 travel warning to India which says, "Rape is one of the fastest growing crimes in India. Violent crimes including sexual assault, happen at tourist sites and other locations." "Do not travel alone, especially if you are a woman." It says that the US has little ability to assist in rural areas that "stretch from eastern Maharashtra and northern Telangana through western West Bengal. TOI. Not just in rural West Bengal. On 9 August 2024, a female doctor was horrifically raped and tortured to death at RG Kar Medical College right in the heart of Kolkata. wikipedia. Within a month the rape scene was renovated thus wiping out all incriminatory evidence. India Today. Only one man, "Sanjay Roy, a hospital volunteer worker, was found guilty over the attack, which happened in August last year in Kolkata." "Roy has maintained his innocence and said previously that he was being framed." BBC. The Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) has found no evidence of police cover up, deliberate destruction of evidence and has not analysed the CCTV footage till 10 June 2025, when it submitted its fourth report. The Hindu. In May 2024, BJP MP Brij Bhushan Sharan Singh was charged with sexual harassment of a number of female wrestlers. TOI. "Seven female wrestlers, including the minor, registered complaints with the police accusing Singh of molesting and groping them at training camps and tournaments." "Weeks later, the minor retracted her earlier statements and withdrew her allegations, reports said." As expected, in May 2025, "A court in the capital, Delhi, accepted a Delhi police report, recommending the cancellation of the case against Brij Bhushan Sharan Singh." BBC. On 14 September 2020, four men gang-raped a lower caste woman at Hathras District in Uttar Pradesh, The woman died two weeks later. On 29 September, the police cremated her body at 2.30 AM without consent of her family. wikipedia. In March 2023, "An Indian court has acquitted three of the four men accused of the rape and murder of a 19-year-old Dalit woman in 2020." The fourth man was convicted of a reduced offence. BBC. "Over 30% of girls and 13% of boys in India experienced sexual violence before turning 18 years old in 2023, according to an analysis published in The Lancet journal. Estimating the prevalence of sexual violence against children in over 200 countries between 1990 and 2023, the study found that the highest rates were recorded in South Asia for girls -- ranging from 9.3% in Bangladesh to 30.8% in India." ET. Perhaps, it is best that the female to male ratio is lower than normal. "Surveys have identified 481 villages across the state (Haryana) - which is 7% of its 6,842 villages (2011 census) - that have over the past five years consistently had a severely skewed sex ratio at birth - below 700 girls per 1,000 boys." TOI. Obviously, they are being aborted. The good thing is that girls can't be raped if they are not born. But, even this figure is a deliberate fudge because only India counts the number of girls against 1,000 boys. The rest of the whole world counts the number of boys per 100 girls and this varies from 103 to 105 boys to 100 girls at birth. wikipedia. The incidence of rape is so high because perpetrators routinely escape punishment. It's a surprise that only the US has cautioned its women and not the whole world. It may yet happen. The shame.      

George, not Alex.

"Huma Abedin, a longtime aide to Hillary Clinton, and Alexander 'Alex' Soros, the son of billionaire philanthropist George Soros, got hitched over the weekend in a high-profile wedding that brought together some of the biggest names in politics, media and society." Alex "serves as the chairman of the Open Society Foundations, continuing his father's legacy of supporting democracy and human rights initiatives worldwide." TOI. Congratulations and good luck to both. In January 2025, "George Soros, along with 18 others, received the highest civilian award in the United States - the Medal of Freedom - from the outgoing President Joe Biden." HT. George Soros is hated by Bhakts, (disciples) of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who have created an alternate reality (DH), in which Mr Modi would have created 'Amrit' (nectar for external life) 'Kaal' (era), had it not been for opposition parties, foreign countries and George Soros. A Hindu version of the Mahdi (wikipedia), as it were, fighting single-handedly against all the internal and external naysayers. In 2023, Sheyril Agarwal and Joyojeet Pal found that George Soros "was already a boogyman for the Indian right," and "While a small number of (social media) accounts belonging explicitly to politicians, including those of the BJP main handle as well as that of the BJP IT cell convenor Amit Malviya were important in putting out the key content, the main amplifiers of content were influencers." "Mr Soros is an old, rich, opinionated person sitting in New York who still believes that his views should determine how the entire world works," said External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar. "I'd put it away if I could stop at old, wealthy and opinionated. However, he is old, wealthy, opinionated and dangerous." TOI. Recently, "India's precision strikes using an array of weapons systems and missiles on eleven key installations ranging from air defence systems to radar sites and command centers of Pakistani military forced Islamabad to urge New Delhi to end the hostilities." ET. "After the successful conduct of G20 as its president...India has emerged as the leader of the developing economies and the Global South." And so, "After keeping India out of the G7 summit, Canada has relented or rather made to toe the line of other members, to extend an invitation," wrote Seshadri Chari. India made nuclear power Pakistan beg for peace, is a leader of the Global South and dominates the G7, and yet we consider a 94-year-old man George Soros (wikipedia) as dangerous. Does he worry us, maybe even scare us? Who supported India against Pakistan? In fact, "Instead of backing for the military strikes, New Delhi was counselled by one and all - including Russia and Ukraine - to talk to Pakistan." "In India, domestic audiences, fed for a decade on how Modi, ably guided by his external affairs vizier, had cut enemies down to size with an 'aggressive' foreign policy, and won the world over with his statesmanship, are aghast at how it all turned out," wrote Nirupama Subramanian. "For a decade or so now, an in-house conspiracy to embarrass the prime minister has been afoot," with his picture on Covid certificates, school satchels and now even on train tickets, wrote Badri Raina. Photos everywhere inside India. No respect abroad. Just a cutout.             

Scorched water last resort.

The US Federal Reserve kept its interest rate unchanged for the fourth time in a row, "keeping the bank's influential lending rate hovering around 4.3%, where it has stood since December. This came despite forecasts from policymakers suggesting they expect slower growth, higher unemployment and faster inflation than they did just a few months ago." BBC. "In new economic projections...policymakers sketched a modestly stagflationary picture of the economy, with growth in 2025 slowing to 1.4%, unemployment rising to 4.5% and inflation ending the year at 3%, well above the current level." The Fed projected a half a percentage cut in interest rate this year and a single quarter percentage points cut in 2026 and 2027. The consumer price index (CPI) inflation "increased 0.1% for the month, putting the annual inflation rate at 2.4%." CNBC. "US wholesale prices crept up less than expected in May," as "The Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 0.1% last month, up from a 0.2% decline in April, according to the Department of Labor figures." ET. In India, the CPI inflation came in at a six-year low of 2.8% while the Wholesale Price Inflation (WPI) was at 04% in May. This fall is because, "The overall food inflation in CPI and WPI came in at 0.99% and 1.7% respectively in May 2025," wrote Roshan Kishore. "The non-food component (core) of CPI grew at 4.1%. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has cut its policy rate by 50 basis points (bps) in its June meeting and a cumulative 100 bps in 2025. HT. As a result, "major banks in the country, including State Bank of India (SBI), HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank, reduced their interest rates on savings accounts." Depositors will receive lower returns on their savings. ET. Naturally, investors are shifting away from savings in banks in search of higher returns. "Retail investors now represent over 91% of India's 230 million of mutual funds folios as of April 2025, compared to just over 100 million in May 2021" and "This increase has led to assets under management (AUM) more than tripling, reaching 69.50 trillion from 22.26 trillion at the end of FY20." According to a study by the RBI, "the proportion of households investing in risky assets climbed to 17.8% in 2022 from 15.7% in 2019." msn. Household borrowings stood at Rs 77 trillion in June 2021. This had risen 56% to Rs 120 trillion in March 2024, which was 41% of GDP. By June 2024, this was at 42.9% of GDP. Interest payments on rising debt is squeezing consumer spending. Mint. RBI's low policy rate has resulted in a dramatic fall in the government's cost of borrowing, so that "The yield gap between India's 10-year government bond and the US 10-year Treasury note has narrowed significantly, falling to just around 1.88 percentage points - a far cry from the 6.35 percentage points spread seen in 2014." Mint. Hooray. The problem lies in the Strait of Hormuz between Iran and Oman. "In 2024, oil flow through the strait averaged 20 million barrels per day (b/d), or the equivalent of about 20% of global petroleum liquids consumption. eia.gov. A scorched-earth policy, adopted by a vanquished nation to deprive an invading enemy of sustenance, is well known since early times. Britannica. If driven into a corner, Iran could adopt a scorched water policy. Scuttle one of its own fully loaded oil tankers in the Strait and set fire to it. That would set fire to oil prices, cause inflation to shoot up and markets to tank. Loaded with debt, Indian households will find it hard to survive a collapse in the value of investments. How will the RBI manage that?     

Wrong hyphenation.

"India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi told US President Donald Trump during a 35-minute telephonic conversation that there was no third-party involvement in ceasefire between India and Pakistan, countering a claim Trump has repeatedly made." ET. "But Trump just said - for the 15th time in 38 days - that he stopped the war. Who's lying?" asked Congress leader Manicham Tagore. "Why is a foreign leader the first to announce a crucial national security move? Even more strange - Why did India's Foreign Secretary issue a statement only in Hindi, on a matter of global diplomacy?" DH. Trump has been a teetotaler all his life  (TOI), so are we accusing him of hallucinating? "In a rare shift from his usual rhetoric US President Donald Trump refrained from taking credit for halting military hostilities between India and Pakistan, instead praising the leadership of PM Modi and Pakistan's Army Chief Asim Munir." ET. Just because he left it unsaid, it does not mean he is denying he called first. He could be praising both for heeding his advice. Trump "hosted Pakistan's army chief Field Marshall Asim Munir at the White House yesterday," "The lunch meeting was the first time a US president had hosted the powerful head of Pakistan's army...at the White House unaccompanied by senior Pakistani civilian officials." Reuters. This was a serious insult to the government of Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif (wikipedia), not just because Trump ignored it completely, but also because, by accepting the invitation, Munir showed his contempt for the elected government and the people of Pakistan. Also, "Trump doubled down on his mediation claim," and "According to White House Deputy Press Secretary Anna Kelly, Munir personally urged Trump's nomination for the Nobel Peace Prize, citing his 'prevention of a nuclear war' in South Asia." BT. "At the G7 Leaders' Summit in Kananaskis, Alberta, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney held talks with PM Modi and both leaders agreed to designate new high commissioners," and "agreed to resume full diplomatic services, ending the thaw between the two countries, triggered by Canadian allegations that India agents were involved in the killing of NIA-designated terrorist Hardeep Singh Nijjar outside a gurdwara in Canada in Canada in 2023." ET. But, "India is a perpetrator of foreign interference, Canada's intelligence said in a report published yesterday, just after India's and Canada's prime ministers vowed to strengthen ties at a global summit hosted by Canada." Reuters. The timing may be deliberate, to remind India that it must be ready to accept responsibility if the investigation proves Indian involvement in the murder. Mr Modi has visited Cyprus and Canada and is visiting Croatia "to thank partner countries for their 'steadfast support' to India in its fight against cross-border terrorism." TOI. "Cross-border terrorism" means across the border from Pakistan. So, if we keep harping on that phrase we cannot blame if Trump invites Mr Modi and Munir for talks on the same day, thus hyphenating the two (News18). Support for fight against terrorism does not mean support against Pakistan. Other countries are do not hyphenate Pakistan with terror. But hyphenate Pakistan with India. They are just following us. We must stop.   

Financial liabilities.

"India's economy continues to demonstrate resilience amid global uncertainties, as the countries real GDP grew by 7.4% in the fourth quarter of FY25, bringing the full-year growth to 6.5%, surpassing expectations, according to a CareEdge Economic Pathways report." ET. "According to a report by CareEdge Ratings, net household savings is at 18.1% of gross domestic product (GDP) in fiscal 2024, lowest since FY17." "Financial savings at 11.4% are at their highest since FY21. Financial liabilities, due to higher debt, have risen to 6.2% in FY24, compared to 3.2% in FY14." NDTV. Mr Narendra Modi was elected prime minister for the first time in May 2014. wikipedia. FY14 extended from 1 April 2013 to 31 March 2014, and so was the last year before Mr Modi's reign. "The trend is characteristic of a developed economy and is not particularly alarming, said Rajani Sinha, chief economist at CareEdge." But, India is not a developed economy. "In 2007, India moved to the lower-middle income country and since then has remained there. India's per capita GDP stood at $2,390 in 2022." To become upper-middle income, per capita GDP has to reach $4,466-$13,485. To become a $30 trillion economy by 2047, "the Indian economy will have to grow at 9.7% per annum over FY24-FY47 in current USD terms." BT. India's merchandise exports fell 2.17% year-on-year (yoy) to $38.73 billion while imports fell 1.7% yoy to $60.61 billion. "Cumulatively, during Arpil-May 2025-26, exports increased 3.11% to $77.19 billion, while imports rose 8% to $125.52 billion." TT. However, "India's merchandise exports to the US rose by 16.93% to USD 8.83 billion in May, while imports dipped by 5.76% to USD 3.62 billion." During April-May, exports increased 21.78% to $17.25 billion, while imports rose 25.8% to $8,87 billion. ET. Not exactly music to US President Donald Trump's ears. "When Indian and American negotiators sat across the table in New Delhi from June 5 to 7," "The long-pending limited trade deal between India and the United States - which had simmered unresolved since Trump's first tenure - was back on the table, but under new political compulsions and strategic calculations. India and the US aim to double bilateral trade to $500 billion by 2030," wrote Anilesh S Mahajan. India cannot agree to US demands on less control on US tech firms, more intellectual property rights for US pharmaceuticals, higher imports of US agricultural produce and international arbitration in case of trade disputes. Which essentially means that India cannot concede to any US demands. Already the US is to impose a 3.5% tax on remittances by Indians living there. In 2023-24 total remittance from the US was $32 billion. ET. At the moment the Iran-Israel war is unlikely to have any major impact on the Indian economy but, if the conflict affects oil supply, prices could rise sharply and cause a spike in inflation. ET. If the US increases tariffs on Indian products, trade deficit and current account deficit could go up. The rupee could come under pressure. A weaker rupee will make inflation worse. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has cut its policy rate by a cumulative 100 basis points in 2025 (HT), and transferred an eye-watering Rs 2.69 trillion dividend to the government for the last financial year (ET) so will it cope with any sudden fall in the rupee? Hope we don't have to find out. Already people are borrowing to spend. We don't want to be left holding the bag (Collins).

     

Mr Modi in Canada.

Prime Minister Mark Carney of Canada will host leaders of Italy, US, France, Germany, UK and Japan in Kananaskis, Alberta. "The summit was set to be a test of his ability to meet three lofty goals he advanced for Canada - taking a leadership role on the global stage, becoming the strongest G7 economy and weaning off US dependency." BBC. With a tiny population of just over 40 million (worldometer) Canada's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) cannot possibly become bigger than other G7 countries but perhaps Carney is thinking of Luxembourg and Ireland whose GDP per capita is much higher than that of the US (wikipedia). "Weaning off US dependency" is impossible because the US accounts for 62.97% of Canada's total trade, with the European Union (EU) being a distant second with just 10.50%. wikipedia. Even an attempt at reducing trade with the US could lead to a serious recession. "Taking a leadership role on the global stage" could be successful because Canada does not share any of its borders with an enemy state. It's main land border is with the US and it shares a tiny negligible border on Hans Island with Greenland (and hence with the Kingdom of Denmark) and a maritime border with "France's overseas collectivity of Saint Pierre and Miquelon to the southeast". wikipedia. In fact, Canada's ties to the US could enlarge as "President Donald Trump has said he believes the US will gain control of Greenland," even though "Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen insisted Greenland was not for sale in a fiery phone call with the president." BBC.  Canada could become more closely intertwined with the US as "Donald Trump raised the matter of making Canada the US's 51st state in a March call with Carney." BBC. In which case, the G7 will become G6. "Canada's factories hit the brakes April 2025 as manufacturing sales plunged 2.8% to $69.6 billion," "linked to tariffs imposed by the US, hitting key industries, especially steel, aluminium and autos, just as plants were gearing up for spring production." ET. As a result, "Canadian Gen Z is confronting its toughest challenge in decades as they graduate into a hostile labor market." Youth unemployment aged 15-24 reached its highest level since the mid-1990s. ET. It seems that Carney placed a condition for accepting "continued law acceptance dialogue" and "issues of accountability" for the killing of Hardeep Singh Nijjar before inviting Prime Minister Narendra Modi to the G7 meeting. The Wire. However, the G7 meeting has lost its relevance because Trump is returning early to Washington in view of the war between Iran and Israel. CNN. Before indulging in schadenfreude, Mr Modi's disciples in India should remember that "Thousands of Indian nationals working in Canada, particularly under the Temporary Foreign Worker Program, are losing their legal work status." ET. So as not to be deported back to India, thousands of Indians have sought asylum claiming to be LGBTQ. CNBC. Why this desperation not to come back home? Why is Canada so much better to live in than India? It would be worth finding out.        

They are us.

"A Lufthansa Airlines flight from Frankfurt to Hyderabad was forced to return to Frankfurt Airport yesterday evening after receiving a bomb threat while still outside Indian airspace." "An official from Hyderabad Airport confirmed the diversion." Lufthansa Airlines said, "We did not receive a permit to land in Hyderabad and that's why the aircraft took a u-turn and returned." Zee. If there was a bomb threat to the aircraft, the German security services would be immediately involved and Lufthansa would not make a casual statement. If the bomb threat was against the airport, all flights should have been stopped. Very, very odd. "According to J&K (Jammu and Kashmir) Students Association (JKSA), more than 1,300 Indian students are stuck in the war in Iran." "JKSA convenor Nasir Khuehami said students are facing increasing insecurity." TOI. In 2023, there were 8,92,989 Indian students studying abroad, of whom 2,34,473 are in the US, followed by Canada with 2,33,532, and the United Kingdom with 1,36,921. HT. Most Indians in higher studies would be conversant in English, so these figures are understandable, but why are Kashmiris going to Iran? "In the wake of the gruesome killings of 26 tourists and a local Muslim in Baisaran Valley of Pahalgam," "Faced with harassment, assault, and open threats in at least 17 incidents targeting Kashmiri students, hundreds of them were forced to leave their exams mid-semester and return to their homeland." Kashmir Times. On 5 August 2019, Article 370, which gave a special status to J&K, was abrogated and J&K came under the Indian Constitution like other states. wikipedia. This also means that Kashmiris are fully Indian citizens, with the right to live, work and study in any part of India in complete safety and with no fear of being terrorised by brainless goons. "Punjabi musician Sidhu Moosewala was shot dead by unidentified assailants in his car on 29 May 2022 in Jawaharke village of Mansa at the age of 28." wikipedia. Moosewala "spotlighted the darker undercurrents of India's Punjab region - gangster culture, unemployment, and political decay." His shooting was claimed by gangster Goldy Brar of the Lawrence Bishnoi gang. "Now 31, Bishnoi runs his syndicate from behind bars - with dedicated Instagram pages and a cult-like following." BBC. Brar is abroad and Bishnoi is in prison. But, According to the Association for Democratic Reforms (ADR), "Based on affidavits submitted by 512 of the 513 current women MPs and MLAs, the report said 143 - or 28% - have declared criminal cases against themselves." "Also, 78 women lawmakers (15%) are facing serious criminal charges, such as attempt to murder and even murder." ET. With such mayhem going on, why was a civilian flight asked to go back? If Hyderabad Airport had problems, why not land at another Indian airport? So many questions. No answer.     

Essential consumption.

"Data released by the National Statistics Office (NSO)...showed retail inflation, as measured by the consumer price index (CPI), slumped to 2.8% in May, below the 3.2% in April." " Food inflation eased to nearly 1% in May, with a sharp decline of 79 points during the month compared to April." TOI. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has already anticipated the fall in the rate of inflation by announcing a "jumbo" cut of 50 basis points (bps) in its policy rate and a 100 bps cut in the Cash Reserve Ratio of banks, starting on 6 September, which is expected to release Rs 2.5 trillion into the banking system, despite already adding "Rs 9.5 trillion to durable liquidity", according to Governor Sanjay Malhotra. The 2.8% rise in inflation in May is on top of a 4.8% rise in the same month in 2024, which was on top of a 4.3% rise in 2023, 7.0% in 2022, 6.3% in 2021 and a 6.3% rise in May 2020. rateinflation.com. Since inflation compounds year-on-year, any rise in inflation just worsens the purchasing power of households. It, however, is a great boon for the government as the average monthly GST collections have risen from Rs 899 billion in 2017-18 to Rs 1.84 trillion in 2024-25 (Tata nexarc). Not surprising that, "Private consumption in the Indian economy moderated slightly in the fourth quarter (January-March 2025) of FY25, according to a recent report by the Bank of Baroda." The RBI's Consumer Confidence Survey in January 2025 showed that 64.4% of the 6081 respondents said that their expenditure had risen more than income, with "More than 40% of the respondents saw their spending rising while their income remained the same, while the remainder saw spending rise or remain the same while incomes fell." Essential spending has risen faster than non-essential spending, wrote Roshan Kishore. As a result of the mismatch in expenditure and income, the share of personal loans in the Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) has doubled between 2011-12 and 2024-25, wrote Kishore. Rising prices helped, "Indian corporate profits hit a remarkable 17-year high in F25, with Nifty-500 companies achieving a profit to GDP ratio of 4.7%, according to a report by Motilal Oswal." "Nifty-500 companies demonstrated, resilience with 10.5% year-on-year profit growth in FY25, building upon FY24's 30.5% increase and achieving a five-year CAGR of 30.3%." TOI. Profits are being generated by raising prices and not by increasing volumes, as "India's soft industrial momentum, a widening trade gap, and early signs of business caution warrant close tracking as H2 2025 unfolds, according to a report by LLama Research." "The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) has slowed to 2.7%, due to weakness in mining, manufacturing and electricity sectors." ET. If manufacturing is soft there will be lower demand for minerals and electricity. It's logical. With the RBI hacking interest rates, companies will be able to borrow at lower rates to pay back previous debt borrowed when rates were higher. That will increase their profits even further and possibly increase tax collections. Companies profit on household debts. Greed is good. Reddit.      

A tiny window.

"Israel launched a series of airstrikes against Iran early yesterday morning local time, targeting locations it said were related to Iran's nuclear program," and killing the chief of the Iranian Armed Forces Mohammad Hossein Bagheri, as well as the commander-in-chief of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Hossein Salami. Two nuclear scientists, Fereydoun Abbasi-Davani and Mohammad Mehdi Tehranchi were killed. CNN. On 15 May, "US President Donald Trump says that Iran has 'sort of' agreed to the terms of a nuclear deal with the United States." "Earlier, an adviser to Iran's Supreme Leader told NBC News that Tehran was willing to make concessions on its nuclear program in exchange for the lifting of sanctions." BBC. "Saudi Arabia's defence minister delivered a blunt message to Iranian officials in Tehran last month (April): take Donald Trump's offer to negotiate a nuclear agreement seriously because it presents a way to avoid the risk of war with Israel." "Trump had unexpectedly announced just over a week earlier that direct talks were taking place with Tehran, aimed at curbing Iran's nuclear program in return for sanctions relief." Reuters. For Israel, this is a tiny window of opportunity it may never again get in the future. In September 2024, "At least 32 people, including two children, were killed and thousands more injured, many seriously, after communication devices, some used by the armed group Hezbollah, dramatically exploded across Lebanon." On the first day pagers exploded after receiving messages from Hezbollah's leadership and the next day walkie-talkies, purchased by the Hezbollah five months previously, exploded killing 20.  BBC. Since 7 October 2023, when Hamas attacked Israel, killing 1,195 people and taking 250 hostages (wikipedia), Israel has been relentless in its attacks on Hamas fighters and leadership in Gaza. One year after the attack, till October 2024, "Israel claims it has killed 17,000 gunmen out of Hamas' 25,000 to 30,000 fighters, but detailed reports identify only nearly 8,500 military fatalities." ACLED. As Gaza has been reduced to rubble, "On the streets of Gaza, more and more Palestinians are expressing open defiance against the armed group that's ruled the strip for almost 20 years. BBC. The best opportunity is that Trump is president and not the anti-Israel Barack Hussein Obama and Joe Biden. In 2015, "The Bethlehem-based news agency Ma'an has cited a Kuwaiti newspaper report,..that US President Barack Obama thwarted an Israeli military attack against Iran's nuclear facilities in 2014 by threatening to shoot down Israeli jets before they could reach their targets in Iran. Following Obama's threat, Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu was forced to abort the planned attack." Israel National News. This could be the beginning of the end of Islam because, as Imam Suyuti explained that Allah "gave the Ummah a choice between another 1000 years or 500 years depending on whether they could maintain their religion in front of Allah, but since Islam began to decline after the first 1000 years Allah only granted them another 500 years." ghayb.com. So, Islam is to survive a total of 1500 al-Hijri years. The al-Hijri year 1446 is to end on 26 June 2025. wikipedia. "The Hijri date 1.1.1500 corresponds to the Gregorian date of Friday, November 27, 2076. datehijri.com. Friday, or Yawm al-Jum'ah is the day of prayers for all Muslims. wikipedia. What an auspicious day for Islam to end. Al-Hamdulillah.       

Conditional invite.

 After meetings in Egypt, Ethiopia, South Africa and Qatar, "India's response to the Pahalgam massacre - precise and proportionate strikes from May 7-10 - was clearly understood. There was no skepticism, no demand for proof of Pakistan's complicity." "Crucially none equated or 'hyphenated' India and Pakistan," and "the aim of the global outreach was not to win approval," wrote ex-envoy Syed Akbaruddin. On 22 April 2025, terrorists shot 26 civilians at Pahalgam in Kashmir, of whom 24 were Hindu tourists, one was Christian and one was a Kashmiri Muslim. wikipedia. On 07 May, India launched retaliatory attacks on Pakistan, named operation Sindoor. pib.gov.in. 'Sindoor' is a vermilion powder applied in the hair parting by married Hindu women and is wiped off as a sign of widowhood. Since all the victims were men, the name implies revenge for wiping the vermilion of our women. Evocative. The delegation visiting Guyana, Panama, Colombia, Brazil and the US "strove to underscore India's zero tolerance of cross-border terrorism," and "Another vital goal was to impress on our international interlocutors Pakistan's complicity in such acts of terror and its malign nurturing of terror groups." "The ultimate objective of this outreach was to garner global support for India's counterterrorism efforts," wrote MP Shashi Tharoor. While Mr Akbaruddin did not seek to "win approval", Mr Tharoor wanted to "garner global support". Seek support in the Americas but not in Africa or the Middle East. Different strokes for different folks. Collins. 'India's outlook resonated far more strongly with American lawmakers," and "My delegation has come away from its mission immensely satisfied," said Mr Tharoor. Three cheers, and more. But the support came to an abrupt end when "The Trump Administration invited Pakistan Army Chief Field Marshall Asim Munir to attend the US Army Day celebrations on June 14." DH. In April, this same Munir said, "You have to narrate to your children so that they don't forget it when our forefathers thought we were different from Hindus in every possible aspect of life." "We are two nations, we are not one nation." Hatred against Hindus, not India. US General Michael 'Erik' Kurilla praised Pakistan as a "phenomenal partner in the counter-terrorism world". ET. "Phenomenal" "counter-terrorism", after Mr Tharoor explained Pakistan's "malign nurturing of terror groups". Speaking different languages? "Prime Minister Narendra Modi's invitation to the upcoming G7 outreach meeting in Canada next week comes after significant understanding with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, including a commitment to law enforcement as per reports in the Canadian media." "A federal Liberal source told The Toronto Star that Carney had placed 'conditions' on the invitation extended to the Indian prime minister." The Wire. Why react angrily to former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau (BBC) while eating humble pie with Carney. Who knows, Munir might be there. A group photo with Munir. No conditions on Munir.    

Guessing the future.

"Indian government bond yields declined in early deals yesterday as investors, led by state-run banks, stepped up purchases after a three-session selloff." "These lenders bought over 125 billion rupees ($1.46 billion) of bonds on a net basis in the last two sessions." Mint. These banks may be owned by the government but the money is ours. "The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) on 6 June slashed repo rate by 50 basis points (bps) to 5.5%, marking a third consecutive rate cut this year. ET. About a month ago, "The US Federal Reserve held its key interest rate unchanged in a range between 4.25%-4.5%, where it has been since December." CNBC. The Fed's wait-and-watch response was due to the "uncertainty about how President Donald Trump's tariffs will raise inflation and/or slow growth," wrote Mythili Bhusnurmath. The RBI's Governor Sanjay Malhotra argued that "the growth needs support, hence the need to front-load action." Does it? "On the contrary, not only has growth done better than expected, with fourth quarter (January- March 2025) growth at 7.4%, better than RBI's December projection of 7.2%, but the growth projection for 2025-26 has also been left unchanged at 6.5%." Not content with its 'bazooka', "In addition to the rate cut, the RBI has lowered the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) by 100 bps to 3%, which will be implemented in four tranches starting from the fortnight beginning 6 September 2025." BT. This move will inject Rs 2.5 trillion into the banking system. To utilize this flood of cash banks will lower their lending rates which will encourage borrowing which will stimulate new investments and create jobs. A virtuous cycle. However, "Private consumption which accounts for over half the economy remains soft." "In the fourth quarter of 2024-25, despite headline GDP growth of 7.4%, it grew just 6%," wrote Srinath Sridharan. If demand for loans remains weak banks will lower interest it pays on deposits, forcing savers to look for alternative investments to augment income. India's share markets are already red hot. While Indian cement company stocks sell at 33-34 times expected earnings, "China's Anhui Conch Cement Co trades below a price-to-earnings multiple of 10 in Hong Kong, wrote Andy Mukherjee. Those who invest in stocks at these levels could suffer huge losses if there is a meaningful correction. People may be ignored but, "Analysts quoted in a Reuters report warned that the move has left the rupee vulnerable to further depreciation by eroding foreign exchange forward premiums and weakening the currency's carry trade appeal." India Today. "In general, carry trade is any strategy where an investor borrows capital at a lower interest rate to invest in assets with a potentially higher return." Investopedia. But, the US interest rate is at 4.5% while that of India's is 5.5% which gives a return of 100 bps. So what is the problem? The problem is that "US consumer prices increased less than expected in May," with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising by 2.4% year-on-year in May (Reuters), while India's CPI inflation was up 3.16% (Provisional) in April  (pib.gov.in), with food, which makes up nearly half of the CPI basket (mospi.gov.in) prices rising by just 1.78%. Since food prices are dependent on supply any variation in the monsoon could push prices up. Not just one bazooka, the RBI transferred a bazooka dividend of Rs 2.69 trillion to the government from profits it made in the last financial year. BS. What happens if inflation increases in both the US and India? Will foreign investors sell out leaving India investors with serious losses in both bond and stock markets? The RBI is relaxed because since the Centre owns public sector banks it will refinance any losses. TOI. But the RBI is also fully owned by the government of India. rbi.org.in. Public sector banks may be following government orders but is the RBI doing the same? Will the government rescue the RBI if it's running out of cash? Guessing the future is astrology. The US Fed hesitates, the RBI rushed in. Who's the angel in this (wiktionary)?