7.4% growth on GST and Kumbh Mela.

According to a report by the State Bank of India (SBI), India's "GDP grew by 7.4% in Q4 FY25, surprising observers with a performance driven by a 12.7% increase in net indirect taxes. This spike in tax revenue played a significant role in boosting overall economic activity during the quarter." GST collections came in at Rs 1.96 trillion in January, at Rs 1.84 trillion in February and at Rs 1.96 trillion again in March. ET. "The economy in 2024-25 hit a four-year low of 6.5%, slowing down from the 9.2% growth recorded in FY24." Growth in the fourth quarter, ending 31 March, beat estimates after jumping to 7.4%. ET. "India's Chief Economic Advisor (CEA) V Anantha Nageswaran has cautiously acknowledged the potential contribution of the Maha Kumbh Mela (wikipedia) to the country's fourth quarter consumption in FY25," as reports came in that the Mela "facilitated an eye-watering Rs 2.8 trillion in economic activity, turning the world's largest gathering into an economic juggernaut." After a report by Dun & Bradstreet estimated the total economic output "includes Rs 900 billion in direct spending, Rs 800 billion in indirect economic activity, and a further Rs 1.1 trillion in induced impacts, driven largely by increased local consumption and economic circulation among vendors, workers and service providers." Rs 2.3 trillion came from transportation, food, tourism and accommodation. The rest Rs 500 billion was from capital expenditure to build the infrastructure. The Kumbh Mela is celebrated four times over 12 years, that is every three years. prayagraj.nic.in. This is a one-off event and the Rs 2.8 trillion boost cannot be attributed to government policies or traditional economic sectors such as manufacturing, services or agriculture. "India has moved past another important milestone by overtaking Japan to become the world's fourth largest economy, with a GDP of over $4 trillion." However, "India lags behind in research and development," and "India's rise has also been marked by jobless growth." "The growth is very iniquitous, with 1% of the country's population holding more than 40% of its wealth, while the bottom 50% own just 3%." DH. "Since 2004-2005, the overall employment rate in India fell from 42% to 35% in 2017-2018 before rising again to 41%." "India was growing at 7.8% per annum from 2003 to 2015," but "from 2014 to 2024, the growth rate fell to 5.8% per annum." "About 28 million unemployed educated youth are looking for decent jobs, and about 100 million educated youth (mostly women) are not actively looking for employment," wrote Prof Santosh Mehrotra. "As compared to 1990, India's economy is now 11.5 times bigger, while the population is only 1.6 times larger. That means that the per person or the per capita income has grown substantially from about $360 in 1990 to $2,700 in 2025." To become an advanced economy with a per capita income of $14,000 by 2047, India has to grow at 7.8% in dollar terms for the next 20 years, wrote Ajit Ranade. That means more exports, more manufacturing and more jobs. Let's not depend on the Kumbh Mela. No one got any nectar.         

Women responsible.

"BSF (Border Security Force, wikipedia) dismantled 118 Pakistani forward posts and surveillance networks along the Jammu frontier that will take years to be repaired, Union Home Minister Amit Shah said.., lauding the force for its tenacious response to Islamabad's aggression." TOI. "After just four days of calibrated military action, it is objectively conclusive: India achieved a massive victory. Operation Sindoor met and exceeded its strategic aims - destroying terrorist infrastructure, demonstrating military superiority, restoring deterrence and unveiling a new national security doctrine," wrote John Spencer. "PM Narendra Modi said... Pakistan had to 'beg for a ceasefire' during Operation Sindoor, in yet another assertion by India that contradicts Donald Trump's claim that the US President had brokered peace between the two neighbors." TOI. Having pulverised Pakistan we are having to defend our victory. Why can't the world accept our word quietly? "US President Donald Trump...repeated his assertion that he prevented a war between India and Pakistan, stating that his intervention helped avoid a nuclear disaster." "India, however, has rejected the US president's account." ET. Even so, "The Trump administration has doubled down on its claim" and  "informed a court in New York that a 'fragile ceasefire' was only achieved between India and Pakistan after President Donald Trump 'interceded' by offering both countries access to trade with the United States in order to prevent a large-scale conflict." ET. Oh, please! India "missed the chance to control the international narrative, said geostrategist Brahma Chellaney...The military operation, launched in response to a terror attack in Pahalgam, dealt a heavy blow to Pakistan's air defence infrastructure without leading to a full-scale war. However, India's slow diplomatic response weakened its strategic position globally." ET. Weak globally maybe, but information within India is totally controlled. "The Government of India...banned 16 Pakistani YouTube channels in India, including Dawn News, Samaa TV, GNN and Geo News for...false and misleading narratives and misinformation against India, its Army and security agencies." ET. So, Indians are not intelligent enough to see through Pakistani propaganda and not patriotic to its country's security forces. They need to be brainwashed. "Trump's change of heart during Operation Sindoor...was connected to a recent deal between Pakistan's Crypto Council and World Liberty Financial (WLF), a cryptocurrency venture in which the President's family has a stake." ET. Bribing Trump from the $1 billion lifeline from the International Monetary Fund needed to buy food for its people. TOI. Unscrupulous fiends. However, all this confusion would not have arisen if the women of the men killed in Pahalgam had fought back, a spokesperson for the BJP said, citing the example of the Rani of Jhansi who fought against the Muslims. "Never mind that Rani of Jhansi actually did not fight against the Muslims, but alongside Muslims, against the British," wrote Badri Raina. Why quibble about minor details? No wonder Indians need to be brainwashed. Won't accept fairy tales.   

Giving money away is good.

The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) monthly bulletin released in May said that "The global growth continues to face headwinds with persistent trade frictions, heightened policy uncertainty, and weak consumer sentiment weighing on the outlook. Despite this, the Indian economy is exhibiting resilience." MC. "India is better equipped than many emerging markets to withstand the effects of US tariffs and global trade disruptions, thanks to strong domestic growth drivers and a low reliance on goods exports, a Moody's Ratings report highlighted." ET. India's merchandise exports in FY 2024-25 were $437.42, imports were $720.24 billion, and so the merchandise trade deficit in FY 2024-25 was $282.83 billion. pib.gov.in. "India recorded a trade deficit of $99.2 billion with China in 2024/25 fiscal year that ended in March,..driven by a surge in  imports of electronics goods and consumer durables. Reuters. We are giving our money away to other nations but, according to Moody's, that makes India "better equipped". It is like saying a man who is starving is healthier because his cholesterol is low. There was considerable criticism in 2018 when the base year for calculating GDP was changed to 2011-12 from 2004-05 as it cut the rate of growth of GDP during the previous Congress-led UPA government to 6.7% from over 7% and increased the growth rate under the present government to 7.4%, wrote Shwweta Punj. Net foreign direct investment (FDI) fell by 96% last year. Because of "A 16% rise in repatriation and disinvestment by foreign investors in existing companies to $51.5 billion and a 75% jump in outward FDI by Indian companies to $29 billion." "Foreign investors in India companies were showing a marked preference for ploughing back their gains from here to reinvest in other markets elsewhere." The Print. "The Indian government is taking multiple steps to maintain strong FDI inflows, including combing through regulations at both the central and state levels to make it easier for companies to invest, tailoring investment packages and making pitches to global corporations." ET. One source of foreign exchange is tourism which is unaffected by tariffs. In 2023, India received 18.89 international tourists but a lot of them were non-resident Indians (NRI), and from Bangladesh, coming for medical treatment. "In 2024, 9.66 million foreign tourists (excluding NRIs) arrived, provisional data from the government shows," wrote Varuni Kohli. Vietnam received 17.5 million international tourists in 2024 and aims to attract 23 million in 2025. TOI. Problem is that tourists can't be assured of returning home because a heavy shower causes severe traffic jams and cancellation of flights. Earlier this month, Gurgaon, Delhi Airport and Minto Road were inundated. Mint. Better drainage would help citizens and attract tourists. Or else, be happy with deficits. Better than tariffs.   

Even the rich.

 "India is set to become the world's fourth-largest economy by the end of FY 2025-26, according to the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) World Economic Outlook (WEO) report released in April." "A few years ago, India overtook the United Kingdom to become the fifth largest." ET. But, there is a slight overestimate.  According to the IMF, "India's GDP is projected at $3.91 trillion for FY25 (1 April 2024-31 March 2025), while Japan's is estimated at $4.03 trillion in CY24 (calendar year). In FY 26 (31 March 2026) India's GDP is projected to be $4.187 trillion while Japan's GDP will be $4.186 trillion at the end of CY 2025, wrote Payal Bhattacharya. This leaves a doubt about where Japan will be on 31 March 2026. "nearly 70% of India's GDP is fueled by domestic consumption, underlining the critical role of India's burgeoning middle class." "In 2022, India ranked 19th in imports and 8th in exports." However, the indices for quality of life paint a different picture. In the Human Development Index we are 134th out of 193 countries, 105th in Global Hunger Index, 79th in Rule of Law and a dismal 162nd out of 180 in World Press Freedom. TOI. Are press freedom and rule of law going to improve. No chance. Because they are the means to absolute power over citizens. A bench, comprising Chief Justice of India (CJI) BR Gavai and Justice Augustine George Masih, expressed disapproval of the coercive search and seizure operations at Tasmac's headquarters in Chennai," by the Enforcement Directorate (ED) and said "the ED was "crossing all limits". "It has 'become a pattern' for the central agency to level allegations without proof, the court observed." The court "accused the ED of using the Prevention of Money Laundering Act to harass and keep the accused person in jail and criticised it for 'high-handedness' and 'inhuman conduct'." DH. Not just the ED, every investigative agency is being used to harass opposition politicians and subdue citizens. The Wire. The BJP is known as the 'Washing Machine Party' for disappearing criminal cases of opposition politicians who join it. Mint. A Sikh activist Jagtar Singh Johal has been held in prison since 4 November 2017. "Jagtar has not been convicted of any crime," but "The Indian government says that he's a dangerous terrorist who helped plan the killings of seven people." BBC. Following the terrorist attack in Pahalgam in Kashmir, in which 26 men, including 24 Hindus, one Christian and one Muslim, were shot dead on 22 April 2025 (wikipedia), "there were 184 anti-Muslim attacks of various sorts all over India." "Houses of alleged terrorists were demolished simply on the basis of suspicion without any due process and in blatant defiance of Supreme Court judgements on bulldozer justice," wrote Karan Thapar. Ordinary people have no defence against a vengeful malicious government, so they seek sanctuary abroad. "The Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) data suggests that 32.29 million Indians lived abroad in 2023," and "a significant proportion of those relinquishing Indian citizenship are multimillionaires and and billionaires" who have left India with "bag, baggage and business". DH. GDP is for politicians. India is its people. And they are miserable. Including the very rich. 

Will be unpalatable.

  "The Reserve Bank (RBI)...announced a record Rs 2.69 trillion dividend to the government for FY25, helping the exchequer to tide over challenges posed by US tariffs and increased spending on defence due to the conflict with Pakistan." The payout has soared from Rs 874.16 billion in 2022-23 to Rs 2.1 trillion last year and Rs 2.69 trillion this year. "The Contingency Risk Buffer (CRB) has been hiked to 7.50% from the previous 6.50%," to help "cover potential hits like bad loans, falling asset values, staff costs and surprise economic shocks." ET. "RBI's goal is public good, not profit." It profits from interest on lending to banks, from seigniorage, because the face value of banknotes is much higher than the cost of printing (Investopedia) and a weaker rupee, as it controls volatility by buying and selling foreign exchange. "The record revenues through dividend and GST have led the markets to believe that there will be a sharp drop in government borrowing." TOI. Yields on the 10-year bond have dropped to 6.252%. Trading Economics. In addition to a huge cash transfer to the government, the RBI has cut interest rates by 50 basis points (bps) to 6% this year  (ET) and "is expected to cut at least by a similar quantum in the coming months, with Nomura expecting another 100 bps of cuts in 2025 (Reuters). In addition, "The RBI has pumped around $100 billion into the banking system over the past six months, the largest amount ever for such a period, using methods such as easing the cash reserve ratio, secondary market debt purchases, foreign exchange swaps, and aggressive open market operations." "In FY25 (April 2024-March 2025), RBI purchased bonds worth Rs 2.6 trillion, while this fiscal year it has purchased Rs 1.2 trillion of bonds and plans to buy another Rs 1.3 trillion this May." ET. All this frenetic activity activity is designed to help the government by reducing the fiscal deficit, which means government borrowing, and the interest rate, which reduces the cost of borrowing. "The massive transfer far exceeds the Rs 2.56 trillion that finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman has announced from RBI and public sector financial institutions combined," and will cut fiscal deficit by 20-30 bps. TOI. "India's bond yield premium over the US has narrowed to its smallest in two decades, likely risking outflows from local debt." Mint. Is that why the CRB has been hiked to 7.5% in case there is a sell off in bonds by foreign funds leading to a precipitous drop in prices? The RBI is said to have gained by selling dollars bought earlier at lower prices. In 2014, one dollar bought Rs 60.95 (worldtradescanner.com) while $1 converts to Rs 85.67 today (xe.com). That should result in large gains by selling dollars. But India's foreign exchange reserves were $304.224 billion in 2014 (Databook) and forex reserves fell by $4.888 billion to $685.729 billion as on 23 May (ET). If the RBI has more than doubled its forex reserves by buying more than selling, how is it making profits on dollar sales? So is the RBI monetizing government debt (wikipedia) which is considered to be very risky for the economy? Using fancy terms and elaborate plays to make it palatable. We may end up paying. After all, it's gambling with our money.     

Get the Party.

"India views China as primary adversary and Pakistan more as an ancillary security problem to be managed," while "Pakistan considers India an 'existential threat' and will continue to pursue efforts to modernise its military and develop its battlefield or tactical nuclear weapons to offset New Delhi's conventional military advantage, the US Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) has said." TOI. Twelve years after he took power, Chinese President Xi Jinping has released a white paper on political and national security, wrote Vijay Gokhale. "The paper is categoric about what safeguarding 'political security' means: Ensuring the leadership of the Chinese Communist Party and the socialist system at all costs. Planning and promotion of national security across the spectrum must be done from the perspective of maintaining the party's dominance." In 2018, "China has approved the removal of the two-term limit on the presidency, effectively allowing Xi Jinping to remain in power for life." "China had imposed a two-term limit on its president since the 1990s." Xi "has amassed power the likes of which has not been seen since Chairman Mao Zedong." BBC. The paper "effectively implies that the party's objective is to continue being the supplier of global goods while sequestering its own economy and society from the outside world." To cling on to power the Xi needs a strong and growing economy, but "China's consumer deflation extended for a third month in April," as "Factory deflation persisted for a 31st month, with the producer price index recording a decline of 2.7% compared to 2.5% in March." ET. That is putting downward pressure on wages of workers. "Stubbornly low prices on everything from eggs to a hot delivered meal have cut into the profits that businesses make, gnawing at the money workers earn, Everyone has become tighter with money, pushing down prices even more." ET. To make it worse, "China's exports to the US collapsed by 21% in April, marking the steepest decline in years, as President Donald Trump's aggressive new tariff regime forces Chinese manufacturers to reroute goods and reconfigure global supply chains." MC. Since then, the US has cut tariffs from 145% to 30% on Chinese goods while China has cut retaliatory tariffs on imports from the US from 125% to 10%. BBC. However, trade with China is never fair because it resorts to underhand, criminal tactics. "Denmark has issued an alert, only days after the US identified 'kill switches' in Chinese solar equipment. Suspicious materials have been found in East Asian circuit boards destined for Denmark's power grid. The findings have evoked concerns of spying, sabotage, and overdependence on overseas technology." ET. The Federal Bureau of Investigation has arrested former Federal Reserve official John Rogers on charges of spying for China. "Prosecutors allege Rogers handed over sensitive information to Chinese operatives, who posed as students and offered to cover travel expenses to China." WSJ. China is a barbarous malevolent nation and is an existential threat to India, not just a "primary adversary", whereas India is an "existential threat" to the Pakistan army and not to the people of Pakistan. No wonder the Chinese Communist Party and the Pakistan Army are "Iron Brothers" (CIIS). The Communist Party's power is dependent on economic growth. Can President Trump deliver a death blow to the Party? We hope.   

It's not a sin.

"At 6 million-plus kilometers (4 million miles), India's road network is now the second largest in the world after the US, according to official data from New Delhi." However, "A still-small, car-owning middle class (fewer than one in 10 households) is feeling squeezed by the $7 billion it pays in tolls every year." In addition, "Indian motorists are paying 30% more for fuel than the average American." "The auto industry complains that hefty taxes have put cars in the same category as drugs or alcohol." "Half the cost of a new SUV is tax," wrote Andy Mukherjee. The huge taxes on motor vehicles are the result of the necessity to create employment for manual labor while trying to control the resulting pollution by blaming car owners in the socialist belief that anyone owning a car is rich and should be fleeced. "India was the fifth most polluted country in the world in terms of air quality," and hosts "six of the world's 10 most polluted cities and 13 of the 20 most polluted cities globally, with Delhi being the most polluted capital in the world in 2024." TOI. Small particles are the most hazardous. "Small particles less than 10 micrometers in diameter pose the greatest problems," and "Exposure to such particles can affect both your lungs and your heart." Causing premature death in people with lung or heart disease, irregular heartbeat, aggravated asthma etc. epa.gov. A study by Chandra Bhushan and colleagues found that "India emits approximately 5.2 million tonnes of PM2.5 annually," and "82% of this comes from biomass burning and industrial activities." TOI. Biomass is used for cooking by the poor and industries employ labor and they constitute the vote bank (wikipedia) so beloved by our leaders. "India has overtaken China to become the world's most populous nation" at the end of 2022, with 1.417 billion people compared to China's 1.412 billion. The Diplomat. So many people need food, and agriculture needs water, and hence, "Excessive groundwater extraction in India, over 25% of the earth's total, has thrown the planet off balance, literally shifting it from its axis, says a new study. If it goes unchecked, it could disrupt the cycle of day and night and may lead to multiple crises." News18. To reduce emissions, the government wants people to use electric vehicles instead of those with an internal combustion engine (ICE). "As of 2024, the country boasts of over 5.6 million electric vehicles (EVs)," with sales of 1.2 million two-wheelers, 6,94,466 three-wheelers and 99.848 electric cars. jmkresearch.com. Electric vehicles run on batteries which need to be charged. "In 2010-11, 65% of our power generation capacity depended on fossil fuels. In 2020-21, this was  down to 61.4%. Further, in 2010-11, the country's generation capacity that depended on coal stood at 54%. It was down to 53% in 2020-21," wrote Vivek Kaul. Charging electric vehicles with electricity from fossil fuels adds to global warming anyway. So, India is using renewable sources for electricity generation. In 2020, India's "renewable energy capacity surged past 200 gigawatts (GW). By 2030, it hopes to scale up renewables to 500 GW." However, land is expensive and, "A 300-megawatt solar project needs over 900 acres," wrote Sayantan Bera. Solar and wind power is irregular and needs backup from fossil fuel generation. "That means we pay for not one, but two power sources." Electricity costs 34 cents per kWh in Germany which is twice that in the US and four times that in China. It would be ruinous for emerging nations, wrote Bjorn Lomborg. Wrong policies require lots of money. So sin taxes on hapless car owners. But, what is their sin?   

Too patriotic.

On 10 May, according to Indian officials, "A SAAB-2000 airborne early warning system was destroyed deep inside Pakistan, nearly 315 km from the border," and "the strikes downed a C130J medium-lift transport aircraft, one JF-17 fighter and two F-16 jets, both in the air and on the ground." ET. "External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar...said that India will deal with Pakistan purely bilaterally, adding that India has zero tolerance for terrorism." ET. Unfortunately, Pakistan has the support of countries of its ilk. "China helped Pakistan to move satellites and recalibrate its air defence systems before it shot down Indian fighter jets earlier this month," and "The countries worked together to reorganize Pakistan's radar and air defence systems to track troop deployments and aerial movements by India." Yahoo. "India's trade relations with Turkey and Azerbaijan are facing new challenges after both countries voiced 'support for Pakistan' and criticized New Delhi's recent strikes on terror camps in Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir." Indian tourists are canceling visits to these two countries and "Indian traders have also started boycotting Turkish products such as apples and marbles." TOI. "The Pakistani army fired Turkish drones at 36 locations in India." "There were also reports of Turkish aircraft delivering weapons to Pakistan." ET. Then there are foolish Indians who get trapped into helping Pakistan. "How easy it is to use love and romance as a trap," as "A Pakistani spy, operating from within Pakistan, used the name 'Sejal Kapoor' to create a Facebook account and managed to hack into the computer systems of more than 98 officials from various departments, including the Indian Army, Air Force, navy, paramilitary forces and state police personnel in Rajasthan, MP, Punjab and UP between 2015 and 2018." "She was involved in the case related to the leak of classified data on the BrahMos missile in 2018." ET. Jyoti Malhotra, an influencer with 385,000 subscribers, "traveled to Pakistan three times - in 2023, 2024 and in March 2025 - ahead of the Pahalgam terror attack." "A 25-year-old political science student from Khalsa college in Punjab's Patiala, Devender Singh was arrested in Haryana's Kaithal for allegedly spying for Pakistan." Sukhpreet Singh and Katanbeer Singh were arrested in Punjab for supplying information regarding Indian troop movement. India Today.What information these ordinary people could supply that Chinese satellites were not already doing, is a mystery. News reporting by Indian television channels became completely deranged with claims of destruction of Karachi port, the Pakinstani PM hiding in a bunker and the Army Chief Asim Munir being ousted in a coup. "All these claims turned out to be false and were picked up by major Western news organizations as a sign of decay in Indian TV journalism." TOI. External enemies we know. Spies we can punish. But, how to deal with the so-called patriots. Can't lock up lunatics, can we? Too many. 

RBI or DOB?

"The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) yesterday approved a whopping dividend of Rs 2.69 trillion for FY 25 to the Centre as against Rs 2.1 trillion in FY 24, which will help New Delhi in its push to narrow fiscal deficit to 4.4% for the fiscal year." "The Contingency Risk Buffer (CRB) was hiked to 7.50% from the previous 6.5%." "This surplus payout is driven by robust dollar sales, higher foreign exchange gains and steady increase in interest income. Notably, the RBI was the top seller of foreign exchange reserves in January." ET. "Though originally privately owned, since nationalisation in 1949, the Reserve Bank is fully owned by the Government of India." rbi.org.in. Does it mean the RBI Board owes allegiance to the government and the political party in power and not to the Indian nation? In which case its name should be changed from RBI to Department of Banking (DOB). For FY 25, the interest income of Rs 1.72 trillion is nearly offset by the CRB provision of Rs 1.63 trillion. So the profit came from the RBI sale of $396 billion and purchase of $354 billion in FY 25. "Trading income is projected at Rs 2.25-2.5 trillion," and stems "from the difference between the average buy price of Rs/US $ and the current rate in a depreciating rupee environment," wrote Dhananjay Sinha. The foreign exchange reserves "jumped by $12.588 billion to hit a fresh lifetime high of $704.885 billion for the week ended September 27." "In the week corresponding to the latest reserves data, the Indian rupee strengthened past 83.50 to the dollar, likely spurring the RBI to shore up its reserves." Mint. On 22 November 2024, the RBI sold $17.76 billion when the forex reserves dropped from $675.65 billion to $657.89 billion. in.investing.com. On the same day, the US dollar closed at 84.4302 against the Indian rupee. poundsterlinglive.com. It seems that the RBI is speculating on the foreign exchange market to increase its payout to the government. At the same time, "The RBI is expected to go for deeper interest rate cuts as part of its policy response to slower economic growth and controlled inflation, according to Morgan Stanley." "It also expected the RBI to bring down the repo rate to 5.5% with a total easing of 100 basis points." ET. "India's retail inflation eased to a six-year low of 3.16% in April from 3.34% in March, driven by a further moderation in food prices." ET. In it last meeting on 7 May, the US Federal Reserve held its Funds rate at 4.25%-4.5% (CBS) and the Fed is not likely to cut interest rates at its next two meetings in June and July, central officials said (Investopedia)." Already, "The spread between the benchmark 10-year India debt and the US has shrunk to about 173 basis points, a level last seen in 2004," and "likely risking fund outflows from local debt." Mint. If the Fed holds steady while the RBI is slashing rates the spread is going to narrow even further. At some point the Impossible Trinity (wikipedia) could come into play and matters could get really interesting. But, do we really want to live in interesting times (wikipedia)?  

Continuing to do the same.

"Prime Minister Narendra Modi...said that the Indian armed forces taught Pakistan a lesson for the dastardly terror attack in Pahalgam and 'Operation Sindoor' made the enemy nation kneel in just a matter of a few hours." IANS. "Despite the Western media's attempt to equate India and Pakistan in terms of military capability, Islamabad literally begged for US intervention after New Delhi struck the Nur Khan air base in the heart of Pakistan with missiles on the morning of May 10, alongside an imminent Indian Navy attack on the Karachi naval port. That the Modi government chose not to escalate further after the Rawalpindi strike was simply because Pakistan is no match for India," wrote Shishir Gupta. On 7 May, Indian missiles hit nine different locations in Pakistan and 'Pakistan-administered Kashmir'. India said it targeted "terrorist infrastructure" and "emphasized that it had not hit any Pakistan military facilities". BBC. On 12 May, following Pakistan's attempts to strike 26 Indian military facilities, India targeted eight "Pakistani airbases with missiles and other long range weapons." At Nur Khan air base a likely operations related building was damaged and vehicles were set on fire. HT. "China provided Pakistan with air defense and satellite support during its clash with India this month, according to a research group under India's Ministry of Defense." "Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif...said Pakistan shot down six Indian fighter jets, an assertion that hasn't been independently verified." ET. Despite having been made to "kneel", Pakistan does not seem to have learnt a "lesson". "Over the past two weeks, intelligence inputs estimated that between 45 and 50 terrorists have crossed into India territory," "carried out under cover-fire from Pakistan artillery". "Intelligence also suggested that the terrorists behind a series of attacks in Rajouri and Poonch continue to roam free." "Officials in Punjab also reported a sharp rise in drone sightings along the 553-km International Border with Pakistan." India Today. "Over three days, 11 people have been arrested on charges of spying for Pakistan in multiple states amid a nationwide crackdown on those involved in espionage activities." They include travel blogger Jyoti Malhotra, "students, a security guard, commoners and an app developer". India Today. Why a security guard, sundry students and commoners are in possession of highly sensitive government and defense secrets is a mystery. If we were winning why did we stop? "Capturing large parts of Pakistani territory during a war as leverage for post-conflict bargaining may also not change Pakistan's mindset." "Getting Pakistan to give - and adhere to - an assurance to stop using terrorism as an instrument of state policy is, perhaps, unachievable." "A sustained military campaign with Pakistan would undoubtedly be detrimental to India's aim of becoming a developed country by 2047," wrote Satinder K Saini. So, Pakistan can continue to do as it pleases, we have to accept it. No wonder, "Pakistan has promoted its army chief General Asim Munir to the rare rank of Field Marshall." ET. India promoted Sam Manekshaw to Field Marshall for masterminding the victory in 1971, which created Bangladesh and captured 90,000 Pakistani soldiers. Britannica. Is Pakistan claiming a similar victory? Social media has dubbed Munir a 'Failed Marshall'. Failure is the inability to achieve success. So who failed? 

Not a right.

"Non-Resident Indians (NRIs), H-1B employees, international students and all other non-US citizens of America, including those with US Green Cards, will be directly impacted by the new law imposing a 5% tax on remittances sent by Indians." FE. "Netizens, especially NRIs swiftly reacted to the proposed bill." "This is really a NEW form of stealing people's hard-earned money (and who contributed fully their fair share into tax revenue and social security contributions), by a rapacious, unaccountable US government," a Reddit user. FE. Firstly, the US did not beg the writer to come there. He cannot claim the right to support family members or buy assets in India with money earned in the US. In India, "When a person remits money to a  foreign country, they are required to pay a certain percentage of the amount as Tax Collected at Source (TCS)." One has to pay this tax for medical treatment/education (other than financed by loan), overseas tour package and any other purpose. cleartax.in. The writer is able to use words like 'stealing' and 'rapacious' about the US government while living and earning there. Here, in India, you will be arrested and thrown into prison for making "derogatory comments" on Prime Minister Narendra Modi. India Today. Of course, any criticism has to be 'derogatory' in nature. "We have been the world's top recipient of foreign remittances for nearly two decades, with estimated inflows of $129 billion in 2024," with the US contributing the most with $32 billion. Mint. "So, if the inequity of its design is one problem, what it says of an economy that thrives on liberal rules for finance is another matter." It's as if Indians have a God given right to plunder other countries but tax one rupee going out. "These aren't just numbers - they reflect the daily reality of Indian households that rely on remittances for survival, education and healthcare. Trump's proposal would cut this vital income, threatening household security in India and deepening global inequality," wrote Regimon Kuttappan. "A 5% tax could significantly raise the cost of sending money home. A 10-15% drop in remittance flows could result in a USD 12-18 billion shortfall for India annually," GTRI founder Ajay Srivastava said. So what? India will be the world's third-largest economy by 2028," as "the Indian economy is projected to expand to USD 4.7 trillion in 2026," and "In 2028, India will overtake Germany as its economy will expand to USD 5.7 trillion," Morgan Stanley predicted. In 2023, "Addressing the country during the 77th independence, the Prime Minister declared that by 2047, the year marking India's 100th year of independence, the nation would achieve developed country status." newsonair.gov.in. Abandoned by their parents, "Indian children's are being found at the US borders with Mexico and Canada - without documents, guardians or belongings - carrying only a slip of paper with their parents' names and contact details." ET. India is an alternate reality created by bombast. In reality, Indians are dependent on the generosity of other countries. It's not a right. We should be grateful. Not angry.             

BIT or FTA.

"The recently signed Free Trade Agreement (FTA) between Indian and the United Kingdom is expected to enhance bilateral trade, with projected annual growth of around 15% until calendar year 2030." "Currently, trade with the UK constitutes approximately 2% of India's total trade volume." TOI. The FTA is expected to come into effect in 2026 and "promises to significantly boost trade volumes - particularly in the textile and apparel sector - by eliminating tariffs on 99% of Indian goods. While India's textile exports to UK stood at $1.4 billion in CY2024, representing a 6.6% share of textiles imported by the UK." FE. In which case, why has the UK government "called it 'huge economic win for the UK' and published its expected gains; India has not," wrote Subhash C Garg. "The UK's annual exports are estimated to grow by an additional 15.7 billion pounds; India's by 9.8 billion pounds, wiping out the current Indian surplus of 8.4 billion pounds. DH. However, experts have cast doubts on the ratification of the treaty because of "two key issues - the UK's carbon tax and the slow progress of the Bilateral Investment Treaty (BIT) between the two countries." "The new BIT template introduced in 2015-16 made it more challenging for foreign investors to pursue international arbitration, highlighting India's attempts to rebalance investor protection and sovereign rights." "This template requires investors to exhaust local remedies for at least five years before seeking arbitration." ET. Trouble is that politicians in India think they are sovereigns in the mold of the Tudors in England, who settled arguments by beheading anyone who disagreed (wikipedia). For instance, "India's Supreme Court has said that authorities cannot demolish homes merely because a person has been accused of a crime and has laid down strict guidelines for any such action." BBC. And yet, "Authorities in Gujarat's Rajkot Monday (19 May) pulled down over 60 properties linked to 38 'history sheeters'," who "faced cases of murder, theft and prohibition violations." TOI. Instead of proving the crimes in court to punish genuine criminals, authorities demolished the homes of people they accused, thereby forcing their families, including children and elderly, to sleep in the open. Prohibition violation probably means smuggling of alcohol which is banned in Gujarat. Not just our violent authorities, even our judges have been found wanting. "The Singapore International Commercial Court (SICC) has set aside an arbitral award worth Rs 802.9 million by an international arbitration panel comprising three retired judges from India, after concluding that the judges had delivered their decision with a 'closed mind', having copied large sections from previous awards without considering the facts and submissions in the present case." HT. Why bring our nation into disrepute? "Supreme Court judges who author judgements in favor of the government are likely to be appointed to a 'prestigious job' after they retire, according to a research paper." A14. The authors live abroad. Foreigners are unlikely to accept coercion. FTA in limbo. Because of BIT.

Prima donna is just one.

"Economists marked up their forecasts for growth in the US and China after the world's two-largest economies reached a temporary agreement to reduce tariffs on each other." "The recent conflict between India and Pakistan is prompting a reassessment of Chinese weapons, challenging long-held perceptions of their inferiority to Western arms," as "Pakistan hailed the use of its Chinese J-10Cs to shoot down five Indian fighters, including French-made Rafale aircraft." ET. US President Donald Trump has created problems for Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi by announcing the ceasefire with Pakistan and "by claiming that among all the reasons New Delhi and Islamabad stepped back from the brink of an all-out war, trade was a 'big one'." Trump even told CEO of Apple Tim Cook, "I don't want you to build in India." Wrote Andy Mukherjee. "A US bill proposes a 5% excise tax on any remittances that originate in the US to any other country." It affects India because there are nearly 2.3 million Indians working in the US and "In 2023 alone, they sent home over $23 billion." CNBC. Such a substantial reduction in dollar inflows could weaken the rupee by Rs 1-1.5 per US dollar and force the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to sell dollars to support the rupee. "The impact would be particularly felt in states like Kerala, Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, where millions of families rely heavily on remittances from overseas workers to cover essential expenses such as education, healthcare and housing." TOI. "India is prepared to eliminate all tariffs on goods from the US, Trump said," adding that he was in "no rush" for a deal with India." ET. It means that Trump intends to make India sweat until it gives in, knowing that "The US remained India's largest trading partner for the fourth consecutive year in 2024-25 with bilateral trade valued at USD 131.84 billion," and a handsome trade surplus of $41.18 billion, whereas our trade deficit with China was an enormous $99.2 billion. TOI. It, therefore, behooves India to keep the US and Trump sweet, but "India is looking at levying import duties on some products made in the US to counter Washington's tariffs on steel and aluminium products, a document submitted to the World Trade Organization shows." Reuters. The Indian "Government also rejected the US President's claim that he had threatened to stop trade with India and Pakistan to get them to agree to a 'ceasefire'." TOI. It was only in February that Mr Modi was hosted at 'Bair House', known as 'the world's most exclusive hotel', during his visit to the US. "Ahead of PM Modi's arrival, Blair House was decked with the Indian flag, signifying the importance of this diplomatic visit." HT. So, why has everything gone pear shaped? According to Indian media, it is because Pakistan bribed Trump by promising to invest in his family's cryptocurrency business, offering investments in rare earth minerals and, early in March, helping the US to arrest "an ISIS-K operative involved in in the 2021 Abbey Gate bombing that killed 13 Marines." ET. From Blair House to bribery allegations - it's like falling off a cliff. Because, there can be only one prima donna. Unfortunately, Trump carries more weight. Stop competing.      

They are useful. Very.

"Ashoka University Professor Ali Khan Mahmudabad has been arrested for his remarks on social media about India's 'Operation Sindoor' against terror groups based in Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir," "on a complaint by a BJP Yuva Morcha leader." He said "his social media posts on Operation Sindoor and the women officers involved were not misogynistic and that he was being censored." HT. His name suggests he is a Muslim so we should accept the word of Hindu BJP over his. After all, according to Sharia, "Zimmis cannot testify against Muslims." But Muslims can testify against anyone. Because "Allah - may He be exalted - said: 'God will not let the infidels (kafirs) have an upper hand against believers." answering.islam. Other professors have also had to resign from Ashoka University. In 2023, Prof Sabyasachi Das resigned over his research paper in which he argued that "the BJP won a disproportionate share of closely contested parliamentary seats in 2019 Lok Sabha polls, especially in states where it was the ruling party at the time." India Today. In 2021, Prof Pratap Bhanu Mehta was forced to resign because of his criticism of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. NDTV. However, Madhya Pradesh Minister Vijay Shah has not resigned or been arrested after he projected Army spokesperson Col Sofia Qureshi as "sister of terrorists". ET. Col Qureshi is a commissioned officer of the Army Signal Corps since 1994 (wikipedia) and casting doubt on her legitimacy or loyalty is an attack on the integrity of the Indian armed forces at a time of conflict. Open- Source Intelligence (OSINT) "has theoretically made it possible for even ordinary folks to curate an accurate picture of the world even during wars," and "is also a minefield of misinformation and propaganda." ET. Where misinformation and brazen fabrication is concerned, our mainstream 'godi media' (lapdog media)  (wikipedia) is way ahead of the deluded nuts on social media. "The coverage of Operation Sindoor (pib, gov.in) was a strike on the credibility of Indian media." "It also projects to international audiences the image of Ugly Indians who can stoop to any amount of chicanery," ranging from "Arnab Goswami, off-leash, taking on the US president for his intervention (Arnab's little number had to be hurriedly taken down by the authorities who usually allow him a long rope) to crazies allowed to give vent to their darkest fantasies in news studios." The Wire. In fact, The Wire itself was blocked by the government for repeating CNN's report that two Rafale aircraft had been shot down by Pakistan. Cannot block the US, as "A top Chinese-made Pakistani fighter plane shot down at least two Indian military aircraft.., two US officials told Reuters, marking a major milestone for Beijing's advanced fighter jet." Reuters. "We are in a combat scenario and losses are a part of it," said Air Marshall AK Bharti. TOI. Admission without accepting. You can fool some people but not all. Abraham Lincoln. But you can use the fools to silence others. Successfully, so far.     

Crying wolf.

"The Economic Survey 2024-25 projected India's GDP to grow between 6.3% and 6.8% in 2025-26," and "the RBI expects the Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based inflation to remain stable at 4%." Mint. The Union Budget 2025-26 projected net tax receipts at Rs 28.37 trillion, fiscal deficit at 4.4% of GDP and the gross market borrowing at Rs 14.82 trillion. india.gov.in. However, government spending on defence may have to increase following Operation Sindoor (wikipedia) although the losses suffered by the Indian armed forces have been concealed. The government expects to cover the extra expense from dividends in excess of Rs 800 billion from state run companies and the "Kotak Mahindra Bank Ltd estimates the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to transfer as much as Rs 3.5 trillion ($41.4 billion) to the government while IDFC First Bank Ltd forecasts the dividend to be about Rs 3 trillion in the fiscal year." ET. This will be the highest ever payout by the RBI, exceeding last year's highest of over Rs 2.10 trillion. infometrics.com. However, "The way RBI calculates the dividend it pays to govt may soon change, with the central board of directors reviewing the economic capital framework." The last time such an exercise was undertaken in 2019, the RBI transferred the then record amount of over Rs 1.76 trillion "boosting Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led regime's prospect to stimulate the slowing economy without widening fiscal deficit." TOI. The Bimal Jalan Committee recommended maintaining the contingent risk buffer at 5.5%-6.5% of the RBI's balance sheet. "This range plays a critical role in determining how much surplus the central bank retains and how much it can transfer to the government." The RBI has bought bonds worth Rs 1.2 trillion and plans to buy another Rs 1.3 trillion worth of bonds in May through Open Market Operations (OMO). "Institutions expect cumulative purchases via OMO of at least Rs 4 trillion in FY26 would be needed for policy rate transmission." ET. Added to this, the record payout to the government is expected to increase liquidity in the banking system to Rs 5.5 to Rs 6 trillion and help in reducing the cost of lending (TOI), which will further help the government by reducing the interest it pays on its borrowings. The RBI sold an estimated $250 billion to support the rupee which dropped from around 70 to the dollar in 2019 to over Rs 81 to one dollar in 2022 (bankbazaar.com). "The sale of dollars at higher levels immediately created profits for RBI since those dollars were purchased at a much lower price." "The RBI balance sheet since 2017 has grown by 113% whereas India's GDP is up 61% in nominal dollar terms. This pace of expansion does not seem commensurate with economic activity." "If the size of reserves exceeds the insurance coverage needed and then that excess is used to book profits on dollar sales to generate dividends, it calls for scrutiny. Is there not a conflict between aiding exports and fortifying the government's treasury?" asked Ajit Ranade. This is probably a polite way of asking if the RBI is directly and indirectly monetizing the fiscal deficit of the government (wikipedia). "Since nationalisation in 1949, the Reserve Bank is fully owned by the government of India." rbi.org.in. In 2018, then Deputy Governor of RBI Prof Viral Acharya resigned after warning the government of interfering in the RBI's functioning, giving the example of Argentina in 2010. DH. Was he crying wolf (wikipedia)? Will the wolf really attack? Depends on the RBI.  

Zero duties on 60%.

US Federal Reserve "officials voted unanimously to keep the benchmark federal funds rate in a range of 4.25% to 4.5%. In a statement, policymakers said they see a growing risk of both higher inflation and rising unemployment." "China's services activity deteriorated more than expected in April, a private survey showed," while "the official PMIs showing factory activity already took a hit from massive US tariffs hikes in April." ET. "In a significant shift in its trade approach, China announced...it will set tariffs on US goods at 10%, while suspending the additional 24% tariffs for an initial 90 days. Meanwhile, the combined 145% US levies on most Chinese imports will be reduced to 30%." ET. "Wall Street's main indexes rose on Friday (16 May) for their fifth straight day, buoyed by the US- China tariff truce earlier in the week," even though, "The University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers said its Consumer Sentiment Index slumped further in May while one-year inflation expectations surged to 7.3% from 6.5% last month." Reuters. However, every good news comes with a 'but'. "A new US-China agreement to pause sky-high tariffs on each other is pressuring manufacturing hubs such as Vietnam and Mexico to make their own, better deals with the US to continue benefiting from a 'China-plus-one' strategy by global producers." "Vietnam, for example, was better off than China with a 46% rate, while Thailand was at 36% and Malaysia at 24%." ET. Good for China, bad for more countries. In the US, "The Consumer Price Index increased 0.2% last month after dipping 0.1% in March, which was the first decline since May 2020." "In the 12 months through April, the CPI climbed 2.3%." Reuters. "JP Morgan Chase & Co boosted its forecast for US economic growth after a temporary trade deal between the US and China, dropping its earlier call that the world's largest economy would sink into a recession in 2025, while also projecting a higher 4.8% pace of growth for China." ET. "The rapid de-escalation in the US-China trade war after the Geneva talks last weekend has helped Beijing avoid a nightmare scenario: massive job losses that could have endangered social stability," "but analysts believe Beijing was more concerned about a potential acceleration of job losses than the absolute numbers over the course of a month." Reuters. Meanwhile, newly elected Prime Minister of Canada Mark Carney has decided on confrontation with Trump and has picked Dominic LeBlanc, who described Trump as "vandalizing" trade relations, as US-Canada trade minister. TOI. Unfortunately, "Mark Carney in dire straits: Canada, one of the largest and richest countries in the world added just 7,400 jobs in April as unemployment rate rises to 6.9%." ET. To give it credit, "Canada has effectively suspended almost all of its retaliatory tariffs on US products, tamping down inflation risks and improving its growth outlook." National Post. What about us? "According to a report by Reuters on May 9, India had proposed to reduce its average tariff differential with the US from around 13% to 4%," and also, "India has offered to bring duties down to zero on 60% of tariff lines in the first phase." ET. Which means India will have to give similar terms to other trading partners under WTO rules. That will bring down prices and encourage competition, innovation, and higher consumption. Will it happen? Suspense.

France lost to China.

India and Pakistan engaged in the most intense fighting in decades with four days of escalating conflict that included fighter jets, missile and drones packed with explosives. It ended almost as abruptly as it began." "Pakistan military confirmed...that it reached out, but said it contacted intermediaries regarding a ceasefire with India." CNN. US President Donald Trump, during a visit to Qatar, said, "I don't wanna say I did but sure as hell helped settle the problem between Pakistan and India last week." "And we talked to them about trade. Let's do trade instead of war." Almost immediately, "Pakistan has obtained the second instalment of special drawing rights amounting to 760 million ($1,023 million) from the International Monetary Fund (IMF)." TOI. Though, "In a strongly worded statement India raised concerns over the decision," it did not matter because "the US has the biggest voting share - at 16.49% - while India holds just 2.6%." BBC. Pakistan could not refuse Trump's offer. "A new proposal by House Republicans" "introduced on May 12, 2025, includes a controversial provision imposing a 5% tax on international money transfers made by non-citizens." FE. That is scary news because, "India's trade deficit widened to five-month high of $26.42 billion in April," as "Imports surged by 19.12% to $64.91 billion," while merchandise exports increased by 9% to $38.49 billion. Combined merchandise and services exports jumped 12.70% to $73.80 billion in April while imports surged 15.72% to $82.45 billion. DH. Persistent trade deficits mean that we can ill afford a fall in remittances from the US, so Trump's mellifluous words could have been persuasive. Former Chief Minister of Jammu and Kashmir Mehbooba Mufti said, "While fanatic mobs in India are vandalizing shops, bulldozing mosques and digging up graves to punish the long dead Mughal emperor Aurangzeb - across the border his namesake Air Vice Marshall Aurangzeb Ahmed is training his forces for modern air warfare." And hence, she requested that Prime Minister Narendra Modi should not be criticized for pursuing peace. ET. Heartfelt support for Mr Modi or tongue in cheek (dictionary)? So why did we stop? "In the India-Pakistan context, war can change the status quo, but may not resolve the political issue: J&K. Capturing large parts of Pakistani territory during a war as leverage for post-conflict bargaining may also not change Pakistan's mindset." ET. Was this then a colossal waste of money? Each Brahmos missile costs $4.75 million (DNA) and each Rafale jet costs $288 million (Bulgarian Military). "But satellite imagery indicates that while the attacks were widespread, the damage was far more contained than claimed - and appeared mostly inflicted by India on Pakistani facilities." "The heaviest blow to India appears to be the loss of aircraft. While the Indian government has not said how many, officials and diplomats say that at least two aircraft were lost, and most likely more." NYT. Shares of Dassault Aviation, manufacturer of Rafale, fell 7% in European markets while the shares of Chengdu Aircraft Corporation, makers of J10, surged 20%. HT. Ceasefire between India and Pakistan. But, France lost, China won.         

Protect our surplus.

"India is looking at levying import duties on some products made in the United States to counter Washington's tariffs on steel and aluminium products, a document submitted to the World Trade Organization shows." "It did not say what kind of products might be subjected to tariffs." Reuters. "The US remained India's largest trading partner for the fourth consecutive year in 2024-25 with bilateral trade valued at USD 131.84 billion." India enjoyed a trade surplus of $41.18 billion with the US while the trade deficit with China widened to $99.2 billion. ET. Talk about cutting off our national nose (wikipedia). "A new tax proposal by House Republicans could significantly impact Non-Resident Indians (NRIs) living in the US. The bill, introduced on May 12, 2025, includes a controversial provision imposing a 5% tax on international money transfers made by non-citizens." FE. "Overseas Indians sent home a record $129.4 billion in 2024, with the highest ever inflows of $36 billion in the December quarter alone." Mexico was a distant second with $68 billion." ET. Such an enormous amount of foreign exchange helps our balance of trade, reduces our current account deficit and supports the rupee. In 2023-24, remittances from the US were the highest at 27.7% followed by the UAE at 19.2%. "It seems that remittances from white-collar Indian employees (US) have now overtaken, or are in the process of overtaking, remittances from blue-collar workers (UAE)." And "inflows from the US, UK, Singapore, Canada and Australia contributed more than 50% of the remittances," wrote Rajrishi Singhal. "Until now, remittances were not subject to US taxation, making this a stark policy reversal." NRIs are calling this a "new form of stealing". FE. Is it? India does not allow unconditional transfer of money abroad. An Indian citizen "can invest in overseas securities and properties as well as transfer funds for maintenance of relatives abroad up to $250,000 a year." But once investments mature or are sold off, the money must be reinvested or brought back to India and cannot be gifted to children living abroad. ET. "India has seen limited success so far in capturing the 'China Plus One strategy', while Vietnam, Thailand, Cambodia and Malaysia have become bigger beneficiaries, according to a report of government think tank Niti Aayog." ET. "In recent years, criticism has been leveled at the Indian government for not taking advantage of the China-plus strategy at the extent that Vietnam has. Ironically, at a time of global trade shifts, it is precisely those policy failures that have meant that India stands to be relatively more insulated from global trade disruption." Mint. So, our success lies in failure. And, we want to increase the failure by imposing more tariffs on the US. Rational strategy.       

Ignore food, or not?

"India's retail inflation eased to a six-year low of 3.16% in April from 3.34% in March, driven by a further moderation in food prices." "Food inflation, which accounts for nearly half of the Consumer Prime Index (CPI) basket, slowed to 1.78% in April, compared to 2.69% in March." Hence, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) "has more room to cut interest rates to support a slowing economy." ET.  Lots of powerful people in India claim that food prices depend on supply which cannot be controlled by higher policy rates, and so, should be ignored by the RBI. "Taming food prices, which have been driving headline inflation rate, through interest rates has a limited impact, said two external members of the RBI's Monetary Policy Committee in the December (2024) policy review." BS. In November 2024, "Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has called for more discussion on using interest rates to control food prices," while "Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal said targeting food prices through interest rates was an 'absolutely flawed theory'." TOI. Even "Chief economic advisor (no less) V Anantha Nageswaran said that removing tomato, onion, potato, gold and silver from the calculation reveals a headline inflation CPI rate of just 4.2%." Surely, now they should look through lower food prices and leave policy rates alone as the RBI has already cut it twice by 25 basis points (bps) each time, from 6.5% to 6% in 2025 (ET). A first-of-its-kind Forward Looking Survey on Private Capex Investment Intentions by the government "projects intended private capex at almost Rs 4.9 trillion this fiscal year, about a quarter less than last year's plan." Mint. Companies will not add new capacity unless demand keeps rising and consumer demand cannot rise if higher prices eat into their earnings. In January 2025, "The much-awaited boom of consumer spending has not materialized, with demand remaining subdued." Because, according to the RBI data, "financial liabilities of households - borrowings - stood at Rs 77 trillion in June 2024." "As of March 2024, this had risen 56% to Rs 120 trillion." Mint. The Indian middle class "day by day is finding itself trapped in a vicious cycle of debt." "As per a recent survey by a fintech platform, Saral Credit, about 67% of Indian families have availed of personal loans. About 53% of Indian youth have taken personal loans before reaching the age of 30 years. In addition, during the decade 2014-2024, its share of bank credit has increased from 16.9% to 32.4%." BW. CEO of Marcellus Investment Managers Saurabh Mukherjea "flagged a troubling reality - millions of middle-class Indians have taken on multiple loans they may never be able to repay." BT. "The government has raised concerns over a growing trend of households shifting their savings from traditional bank deposits to market-linked financial products such as equities and mutual funds in search of higher returns." CNBC. If the RBI cuts policy rates, banks will cut the rate of interest on savings and more people may shift their money from bank deposits to the markets. If stock markets fall, millions of people could default on their debts leading to a surge in bad loans at banks. So now what? Ignore falling food prices? Or cut rates?    

Bloodless operation.

In response to the terror attack at Pahalgam in Kashmir on 22 April 2025 killing 26 civilians (wikipedia), Indian armed forces attacked nine terrorist sites in Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir in Operation Sindoor on 7 May (pib.gov.in). Inspiring headlines, "weapons deployed included Scalp deep-strike cruise missiles that allow Rafale fighter pilots to attack ground targets from standoff ranges, the Hammer smart weapon system, guided bomb kits and M77 howitzers firing Excalibur munitions. Loitering munitions were also used." HT. A terrifying combination, reminding us of tearing scalp as trophy (wikipedia) and the legendary Excalibur, taking us back to King Arthur (Britannica). The attack was "measured, non-escalatory, proportionate and responsible" and "no Pakistani military facilities were targeted and India demonstrated 'considerable restraint in selection of targets and method of execution'." HT. No Pakistani army personnel was touched but "intelligence estimates said the toll could be in the range of 70 to 100" terrorists killed. TOI. "Terror mastermind Maulana Masood Azhar said 10 members of his family and four aides died in the Indian strikes" that included his sister, "her husband, a nephew and his wife, and a niece." TOI. Their ages and connection to terrorist groups is not known. In the retaliation to Operation Sindoor, "As many as 15 Indians lost their lives and 43 were injured in Jammu and Kashmir's Poonch and Tangdhar regions as Pakistan resorted to arbitrary firing and heavy shelling along the Line of Control and the International Border." India Today. All the pilots returned safely but India lost five soldiers while Pakistan may have lost 35-40 in cross-border firings across the Line of Control (LOC). DH. Attacks across the LoC have been going on for decades (wikipedia) and are not specific to Operation Sindoor. On 10 May, Indian military targeted eight Pakistani airbases with missiles and other long-range weapons. At Nur Khan airbase vehicles were set on fire, runways at Sargodha and RahimYar Khan were bombed while the roof of a UAV storage depot was damaged at Sukkur. HT. Again, there is no report of any Pakistani casualty. "In last week's escalation -counter escalation dynamic, one thing was clear: New Delhi had no intention of getting sucked into the quagmire of an endless war," wrote Prof Harsh V Pant. "India can take satisfaction that it displayed serious political intent to battle terror, showed it had the capability to degrade terror infrastructure," "But it must also acknowledge that the task of imposing deterrence hasn't been met fully, and it must prepare for a more volatile security situation and a neighborhood that may just have got more fragile," wrote Prashant Jha.  Terrorists are agents of the Pakistani Army and we have taken great care not to hurt any army personnel. Civilians have been killed across the LoC but they don't count. However, it was an excellent opportunity for scowling ominously into the camera and making bloodcurdling threats. Thankfully, US President Donald Trump helped to stop the bloodless operation killing civilians (The Hindu). As revenge for killing civilians.