Disturbing but necessary.

"Global recession fears have set in after US President Donald Trump took some bold tariff decisions. The fall of the mighty US Dollar has also complicated the situation. However, an expert has claimed that the US Dollar was still in better position than the American currency traded during the 2008 financial crisis." ET. "US consumer sentiment deteriorated sharply in April and 12-month inflation expectations surged to the highest level since 1981 amid unease over escalating trade tensions. The University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers...said its Consumer Sentiment Index dropped to 50.8 this month from a final reading of 57.0 in March." Reuters. China has raked in windfall gains, as "The world's two biggest economies are headed for divorce that will play out for the rest of this year and beyond, after a month that saw a huge spurt in China's exports and its overall trade surplus hit near $103 billion." ET. Money in the pocket is valuable insurance. Radio Free Asia reported, "Major export provinces and shipping ports, including Shanghai and Guangdong, have seen a sharp decline in activity, with charge traffic to the US coming to a near halt." "Shipping containers that missed the April 9 deadline for US-bound vessels are now stacked high at these ports." In Zhejiang and Guangdong - the provinces contributing the most to China's exports in 2024 - factory operations have been brought to a halt." ET. "At present, China's exports are facing a complex and severe external situation, but 'the sky will not fall," said a spokesperson of China's customs department. TOI. While China has retaliated with a tariff of 125% on US goods, India has chosen "a path of dialogue and trade talks. Firstly, the tariffs on New Delhi were comparatively lower than a few major economies, and secondly, Trump has been, so far, favorable to India's approach to tariff hikes." TN. Still, "If the United States and China - the world's - two largest economies are heading into a major slowdown, the impact on India will be far more severe than anything the current tariff war might bring, said Swaminathan Aiyar." "Amid rising trade tensions with Washington, China...urged India to join hands in resisting what it called the 'US abuse of tariffs', after President Donald Trump announced a steep hike." HT. In March 2024, "China...said the Sino-India border issue does not represent the entirety of the bilateral ties and called for enhancing mutual trust between the two countries." BS. In other words, we may attack suddenly, kill your soldiers, as at Galwan  (BBC), but you should continue to buy our products and support us. Arrogant idiocy of Communist barbarians. However, "In a pointed critique of global trade imbalances, Union Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal said China's economic ascent was built on 'unfair trade practices, hidden subsidies and distorted labor models." ET. A severe recession in China may affect India's economy but ultimately will surely be beneficial for India. "Creative Destruction" (Investopedia) works. Necessary. 

Food first.

"The country's goods and services exports have crossed $820 billion in 2024-25, marking a nearly 6% increase over the previous fiscal year despite global uncertainties, the commerce ministry said. Merchandise exports increased slightly from $395.38 billion in April-February in 2023-24 to $395.63 billion in the same period this year. Services exports increased from $311.05 billion to $354.90 billion. "In the last few decades, a large consumer class has emerged in India which has consumption patterns above the pre-1991 bare necessities of roti, kapda aur makan (food, clothes and shelter)." There are an estimated 40 million people with annual income above $10,000 per year, and this number will rise to 88 million by 2028, overtaking Germany and Japan, reported UBS Bank. To put it in perspective, as of 2023, the nominal gross national income (GNI) per capita of Germany was $54,800 per year, that of Japan was $39,350 while that of India was a paltry $2,540 per year. World Bank. "Luxury car sales, a good enough proxy for the luxury market since they combine utility, experience and conspicuous consumption, are slowing down." The Hurun India Rich List estimates that there are 334 dollar billionaires in India. There are a total of 1,539 individuals with a wealth of over Rs 10 billion. "If Rs 50 billion is taken as the threshold, the rich list has 534 HNIs (high net worth individuals)." ET. "Despite market volatility, the median compensation for non-promoter Chief executive officers (CEOs) in India in 2025 has touched Rs 100 million, marking a 13% increase from the previous year, according to Deloitte India." ET. While politicians and bureaucrats boast of rising sales of luxury products, ordinary Indians may not be able to afford healthcare. "In recent years, a worrying trend has emerged in India's health insurance market: many individuals are choosing to quit their health policies." A combination of high premiums, a usurious 18% goods and services tax (GST) on health insurance (India Filings), along with a "surge in claim rejections and the feeling of inadequate coverage that is leading many to reconsider their insurance choices." ET. Forget healthcare insurance with 18% GST, "Subprime loans in India are teetering on the edge of a fresh crisis, with surveys showing signs of distress among 68% of borrowers." "With 27% of borrowers taking out new loans to service old ones, and some families driven to more extreme coping strategies, such as pulling children out of school, the industry is bracing itself for higher defaults." ET. "Are we going to be happy being delivery boys and girls?" asked Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal. No sir, but not everyone can be a Union minister living free in a bungalow in Lutyens Delhi (wikipedia) and traveling first class at taxpayer expense. At least being "delivery boys and girls" provides basic roti, kapda and makaan. While waiting for Amrit Kaal (investindia.gov.in).       

Rulers and subjects.

"The European Union is racing to clinch trade deals with country's around the world in an effort to diversify away from an increasingly protectionist US as officials worry that the transatlantic relationship has been irreversibly damaged." "The EU already has the largest network of trade agreements in the world, covering some 75 partners and more than 2 trillion euros in trade, according to data compiled by the bloc." ET. Before rushing into Europe's arms we should read the list of colonies of European countries (wikipedia), remember the atrocities they committed and the wealth they plundered. But worse, their complete lack of any remorse,  as shown by their refusal to apologize, let alone pay reparations for their crimes. However, the greater problem with a trade deal is that "The European Union is seeking lower tariffs on items of interest to Brussels, including whiskey, wine and cars, among others. TIE. These are the very items that contribute a large part of the Indian government's revenue. The smallest cars are taxed at 29%, SUVs at 43% and larger SUVs at 50%. cars24.com. Alcoholic beverages made in India are taxed at around 70-80% and contributed Rs 2.8 trillion in 2021. vakilsearch.com. If tariffs on EU whiskey and wine are reduced the government will have to reduce taxes on Indian drinks as well and that will slash government revenue drastically. "The government...hiked excise duty on petrol and diesel by Rs 2 per liter. At a time when global crude prices are on a steady decline, the hike signals a fresh focus on ramping up govt revenues for possible capital expenditure after tax relief given in the Union Budget 2025." The cost of domestic cooking gas has been increased by Rs 50 per 14.2 kg cylinder of gas. DH. "Foreign companies have often struggled in India due to high tax demands related levies payable on big M&A transactions or government accusations of duty evasions on imports, at times leading to prolonged litigation." Reuters. In December 2024, "The Swiss authorities have suspended the most favored nation (MFN) status provision in the Double Taxation Avoidance Treaty (DTAA) with India," because Switzerland has to pay 10% tax under the treaty whereas Colombia and Lithuania are taxed at 5%. TOI. India wants trade disputes to be adjudicated in Indian courts, but "From Saudi Arabia to the UK and the European Union to Sri Lanka, India's model bilateral investment treaty (BIT) and the finance ministry's steadfast refusal to tweak it is posing problems not just for trade negotiators but also for countries with which govt is seeking to work out investment arrangements." TOI. No one trusts India's judicial system. "In a major embarrassment, Singapore Court has quashed an arbitral award against the special purpose vehicle (SPV) set up to manage dedicated freight corridors in India after finding that the tribunal headed by retired CJI Dipak Misra had copied 112 of 451 paragraphs from two earlier awards involving the same parties but on different issues." TOI. The former Chief Justice of India, no less. "After we got independence, one set of imperialists left the country, another set of brown imperialists took over in Delhi,"said Mohandas Pai. "They look down upon the people. We are subjects and victims of government in Delhi, in Bangalore, in other places because they think they are our rulers and we are their subjects and victims." BT. Indians have no option. Foreigners have no intention of being victims. Natural. 

What if?

"President Donald Trump...dropped new tariffs rates on imports from most US trade partners to 10% for 90 days to allow trade negotiations with these countries." He also increased the tariff rate on China to 125% "effective immediately". CNBC. In retaliation, "China will impose 125% tariffs on US goods from Saturday (12 April), up from 84% previously announced, as the trade war between the world's powerful nations continued." ET. "China hiked its levies on imports of US goods to 125%.., hitting back at Donald Trump's decision to single out the world's No 2 economy for higher duties, while dismissing the US President's tariff strategy as 'a joke'." Trump meanwhile increased tariffs on China to 145%. Reuters. "Given that American goods are no longer marketable in China under the current tariff rates, if the US further raises tariff rates on Chinese exports, China will disregard such measures," said the Chinese foreign ministry. President Xi Jinping called it "unilateral bullying". MC. That looks like an admission that China already taxes US goods so highly that any more makes no difference. Also, China imported just $143.5 billion from the US while exporting nearly $439 billion worth of goods in 2024 (census.gov), so it may have run out of anything to tax. No nation can surpass China in "unilateral bullying", as it has claimed the entire South China Sea as its own territory by using a fictitious 'nine-dash line' (wikipedia) and is using its military power for maritime piracy, prompting former President of the Philippines Benigno Aquino to compare China to Hitler's Germany (BBC). "Ironically, China can only blame itself" because "China uses various non-tariff barriers , such as stringent regulations and licensing requirements to protect domestic industries." "Chinese private companies doing business in other countries are seen as arms of the state and have also been accused of working to advance the interest of the Chinese state in other countries such as through spying or theft of critical technology." ET. With spectacular results, as its economy grew at an average of 10% over 30 years. wikipedia. Economists have labeled Trump as 'stupid' and his policies as a sign of 'weakness' of the US. ET. Washington is losing its advantage in Asia. "In contrast, Beijing is showing it knows how to treat its friends. In December it lowered its tariffs to zero on certain products from least-developed countries it has diplomatic relations with," wrote Karishma Vaswani. Why are so-called experts crawling out of the woodwork to proclaim that Trump's policies will fail when similar policies have served China so tremendously? What if Trump's policies may be successful? Scary.       

They are more dear.

"Global markets took a hit after US President Donald Trump announced a wave of reciprocal tariffs on over 180 countries, heightening fears of a recession and slowing growth." But the rich and the government in India are rejoicing. "With oil prices cooling off and the dollar losing strength, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) finds itself in a more comfortable position to pursue interest rate cuts - both in upcoming April policy meeting and possibly for the rest of the financial year." MC. Brent crude has slumped to $60.57 per barrel this morning. oilprice.com. The average closing price of crude has been $71.15 per barrel this year, down from $94.53 in 2022. Macrotrends. Immediately, "The government...hiked excise duty on petrol and diesel by Rs 2 per liter." Apparently, the retail price of petrol will remain the same but the price of cooking gas is to rise by Rs 50 per cylinder. ET. The retail price of petrol varies from a low of Rs 94.49 in Ahmedabad to a high of Rs 107.46 in Hyderabad in India (cardekho.com) while the average price of petrol in the US was $3.243 per US gallon on 7 April, which works out to about Rs 73.82 per liter (eia.gov) assuming 1 US gallon at 3.8 liters (unitconverters.net) and 1 USD at Rs 86.5 (xe.com). A reduction in the cost of transport would leave a little bit of money in the hands of ordinary people to spend, but instead, the cost of cooking gas has been increased. Why so cynical? Because, the salary of members of Parliament has been increased to Rs 124,000, constituency allowance to Rs 87,000 and office allowance to Rs 75,000 per month. TOI. MPs also get free first class travel, car and driver, rent free bungalows, free water and electricity and other handouts. DD. Dearness (inflation) Allowance for government officials has been increased to 55%, starting from 1 January 2025. TB. Which means that an official earning Rs 100,000 per month will now receive an additional Rs 55,000 to compensate for rising prices. Why should they care? "Manufacturers of consumer goods - from packaged foods and beverages to detergent and paint - are expected to benefit from the fall in crude oil price, as it would make raw materials cheaper and boost their profit margins, providing some relief amid a protracted slowdown in urban consumption." ET. They are not looking to pass on the benefits of cheaper raw materials to consumers. Why should they? Higher profits mean higher bonuses. As the RBI cuts its interest rates, banks will reduce interest on savings and fixed deposits, hitting people who rely on interest on savings for their daily expenses. Defaults, or non-performing assets (NPAs), on credit cards rose 28.42% YoY to Rs 67.42 billion in 2024, up 500% from Rs 11.08 billion in 2020. TIE. The rate of interest on outstanding balance in credit cards is 35%-40% per annum Axis Bank. This does not fall with RBI's interest rate. Hotmail founder Sabeer Bhatia said that India's GDP calculation is wrong, saying "it overstates economic output by focusing on monetary transactions instead of actual work done." ET. More money for people to spend. Production will increase. And, also GDP.  

Bo waits for Xi.

"In 1947, the US led 23 nations into signing the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT)." "On 2 April, in a speech that lasted 48 minutes, US President Donald Trump effectively shredded this multilateral trading system and signaled a fundamental shift in US trade policy," wrote N Madhavan. Tariffs will only increase prices and will not create jobs. That is the most polite criticism of Trump. Instead of 'Liberation Day' it would be better to call it 'Recession Day' or 'Economic Stupidity Day', wrote Swaminathan Aiyar. Trump "seeks to destroy the global economic order created by the US after World War 2," and "more than one billion people were lifted out of poverty in India and China alone." We do not recall Mr Aiyar using such language when customs duty started going up in the 2018 Budget to help Mr Narendra Modi's 'Make in India' policy. Mint, only to be extended to 75 imported items in the Budget 2019. India Today. Trump's duty is to the US and not to make China and India richer. At the Bretton Woods Conference the US dollar was fixed to gold at a rate of $35 to one ounce of gold. mises.org. In 1971, President Richard Nixon ended the gold standard, the so-called 'Nixon Shock', and imposed a 10% surcharge on import tariffs. (wikipedia). That has been blamed for the stagflation of the 1970s. "India may still meet its 6.3%-6.8% target growth projection for the 2025/26 fiscal year...if oil prices stay below $70 a barrel, government officials said." Reuters. "No other country comes close to matching China's annual sales of more than $400 billion to the United States each year." In 2024, China racked up a trade surplus of over $295 billion with the US. census.gov. "Kaiyuan Securities expects the new tariffs could slash Chinese exports to the US by 30%, cut overall exports by more than 4.5% and drag economic growth by 1.3 percentage points." Reuters. In retaliation, "China said...it will impose reciprocal 34% tariffs on all imports from the US from April 10." CNN. And in reply, "Donald Trump has announced an additional 50% tariff on China less than 48 hours after Beijing announced tit-for-tat 34% tariff on the US." "It now takes US' tariff on all Chinese goods to an all-time high of 84%. NDTV. China called it "a mistake on top of a mistake" and "the American side's blackmailing nature." And said, "If the US insists on having its way, China will fight to the end." Reuters. If China thinks that it can compensate by increasing exports to the European Union it could be mistaken because in 2022 the EU imported $657.32 billion from China (TE). Clearly, China has been used to gaming the system and resents Trump for not accepting it. Still, it has not called him a"running dog" (wikipedia) or branded the US "paper tiger" and  "eunuchs" as it did in 2016 (NDTV). Is it because Xi Jinping is seriously worried? Trump can only lose an election but Xi Jinping could be toppled if the economy tanks. He must know what happened to Liu Shaoqi who was also president of China (wikipedia) and Bo Xilai (wikipedia) and many others will be salivating at the prospect of meeting Xi. A 'Trump Shock' to China. Pleasurable.       

Wake up call.

 "Citing growing air pollution, strained infrastructure, corruption and climate extremes," a Reddit post advises, "Do not think about the degree - think about where you actually want to live in the long term. Because here's the reality: India is becoming uninhabitable. You may not notice the pinch today, but by your 30s, it's going to hit you like a truck - when you're trying to raise a child, buy a house, or just get decent healthcare." BT. "Why would migrants spend so much money for a dangerous enterprise of going to America," asked Chidanand Rajghatta in November 2019, during Donald Trump's first term and after Mr Narendra Modi had won a landslide victory in the general election (BBC) telling us that India is the "Vishwaguru" (teacher to the world) because we are all living in "Amrit Kaal" (golden age) (BBC). But, the "Indian dream" is to flee from here. "The more worrisome reason for New Delhi is that India offers so little hope that some young men who are able to raise $20,000 prefer to use it to flee the country rather than deploy it at home to build a better life. In other words, they have assessed that the risk-reward return from chasing the American Dream is better than investing it in what they consider an Indian nightmare," wrote Rajghatta. Last week, Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal...asked, "Are we going to be happy being delivery boys and girls...Is that the destiny of India...this is not startup, this is entrepreneurship...What other side is doing -- robotics, machine learning, 3D manufacturing and next generation factories." After years of trying to get government jobs, desperation drives young people to "being delivery boys and girls". Why government jobs? "Not much scope after B Tech, so I chose civil services," and "I just need a stable future and I don't want to live a hopeless nightmare," were the answers to M Krishnamurthy & R Bijapurkar. Mohandas Pai responded to Mr Goyal, "there are many deep tech startups in Chip design, IOT, Robotics, EV charging, BMS in India, growing rapidly but where is the capital? Indian startups got 160b$ from 2014-2024, China 845b$, US 2.3Tr$." ET. "India imposes the highest taxes in the world on its domestic sectors, which account for a quarter of GDP and employ 17% of its workforce." "These sectors cumulatively generate employment for over 100 million," wrote Prof Ghanshyam Sharma. High taxes help officials to collect bribes. "An X user shared a detailed account of a friend's experience of trying to start an automotive parts manufacturing unit in India." BT. "Meanwhile, Piyush Goyal talks about competing with China, while the government itself can't manage a basic EPFO website." "Truth is, we'll never overtake China, not with this army of babus (bureaucrats) and netas (leaders) blocking every step." he wrote. These very people are the ideals for our youth who are desperate to join their ranks. That is their Amrit Kaal. Time to wake up.  

Reason to be optimistic.

"United States President Donald Trump...described Prime Minister Narendra Modi as a 'great friend' while announcing a 26% tariff on Indian imports." "India, very, very tough...They charge us 52%. You have to understand, we charge them almost nothing, for years and years and decades." ET. "However, India will be able to navigate the tariff challenges smoothly." Because, though "Indian exports of steel, aluminium and auto-related goods will face a 25% tariff, while pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, copper and energy related products will not be taxed." ET. Still, "The tariffs are projected to reduce Indian exports to the US by approximately $30-33 billion, equating to a 0.8-0.9% contraction in India's GDP. This downturn could exacerbate existing economic challenges, including a slowdown in growth and weakened consumer confidence." CNBC. Economist Swaminathan Aiyar compared Trump's tariffs to "the protectionist Smoot-Hawley tariffs of the 1930s that exacerbated the Great Depression." "This is going to lead to more inflation with a recession, stagflation," Aiyar said. However, the comparison is not between similar economies of the US or of the world.  "The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, enacted in June 1930, added about 20% to the United States' already high import duties on foreign agricultural products and manufactured goods. The Fordney-McCumber Act of 1922 previously raised the average import tax on foreign goods to about 40%." Investopedia. In 1930, the US was suffering from the Great Depression with falling GDP and very high unemployment. wikipedia. This time, the US GDP increased by 3.1% in the third quarter (Q3), and by 2.4% in Q4 (October, November and December) of 2024. bea.gov. And, "Private sector payrolls increased by 155,000 in March, according to ADP Research. That was above all but one estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists." ET. The Smoot-Hawley added 20% on top of existing 40% tariffs, but now, the effective rate of tariffs was "2.4% when Trump took office." "The effective tariff rate measures the total tariffs measured on imports." Investopedia. Also, Trump's tariffs are not uniform but vary from country to country and are therefore subject to negotiations. In 1930, Europe still had its colonies to loot and could retaliate. No longer. Indian policymakers should be worried. "Instead, they seem to be looking forward to it with a certain confidence, even optimism." Because, "They are now convinced that Indian manufacturing may never be able to produce things more cheaply or with consistently higher quality than its peers. A nation that thinks it can't win on either cost or quality will naturally welcome a third axis." "Exports pessimism is a disease in India. It is one that has become so endemic that we appear to be optimistic when faced with disruptions to trade," wrote Mihir Sharma. So, "India's simple average tariff rate on industrial goods has been brought down to 10.66% after the Budget for 2025-26, while that on agriculture items, including textiles sits at 39% as per 2023 levels." MC. India has high tariffs to protect its crony capitalists (Le Monde) and there are no worries as long as they are protected. Maybe Trump is doing us a favor. Removing protection from parasites could rejuvenate the system. Optimism could be correct.

Hit the target.

 "India's direct tax collections have witnessed a remarkable upswing, underscoring its strong economic growth, improved compliance and better tax administration." "Personal income tax receipts have surged at a compounded annual rate of 22.8% to Rs 12.57 trillion in 2024-25 from Rs 8.33 trillion in 2022-23," wrote TV Mohnadas Pai & Nisha Holla. Are the people really growing wealthy as tax collections indicate? "According to the International Monetary Fund, in 2024, India ranked 142nd out of approximately 190 countries, with a nominal per GDP of around $2,700." And yet, "With 200 billionaires in 2024, according to Forbes magazine, India ranks third globally in the billionaire count," wrote Arjun Jayadev & Advait Moharir. It is not just direct taxes that are being squeezed out of us, but indirect taxes are an even bigger burden on the people. "India's goods and services tax (GST) collections surged 9.9% YoY to Rs 1.96 trillion during March 2025." ET. The GST policy started on 1 July 2017. In the first full financial year (FY) 2018-19, total GST collection was Rs 11.77 trillion, which has soared to Rs 20.18 trillion in 2023-24. In FY25, total GST collection from April-December 2024 has been Rs 14.07 trillion. cleartax.in. If we add Rs 1.96 trillion in January, Rs 1.84 trillion in February (BS) and Rs 1.96 trillion in March, we get a total of Rs 19.03 trillion for FY 25. The price of anything we buy includes the cost of transportation. Out of Rs 83.22 for one liter of diesel in Delhi, taxes account for Rs 43.99 (over 50%). bankbazaar.com. "India's toll collection touched an all-time high in FY25 at Rs 729.31 billion, an increase of 12.5%, with the number of use of toll use climbing about a tenth. ET. Since most goods are transported by trucks, taxes on diesel and high tolls increase prices on which the government collects GST. New regulations on income tax, drafted by 150 officers over 60,000 hours, have been revealed. But, "It does nothing to ease Indians' basic concern: That the taxman will send them a demand for an arbitrary sum when they least expect it." "Distrust and confrontation is at the heart of how the Indian taxation system works, and it is both nerve-racking and inefficient," wrote Mihir Sharma. Seven Indian academic institutions received tax demands on research grants ranging from Rs 50 million to Rs 1.20 billion, labeled "tax terrorism" by Mr TV Mohandas Pai. ET. Disputes are common. "Out of the arrears of over Rs 43 trillion, around Rs 29 trillion (67%) is impossible to recover," states Revenue Secretary report to the Parliamentary Committee. FPJ. Mr Pai is pleased with the rising personal income tax collections but is incensed by the tax on research grants. Tax authorities are the same and resort to terrorism to fulfill targets set by the Finance Minister in the budget. This year's budget has set a target of net taxes at Rs 28.37 trillion. pib.gov.in. Officials will do anything to achieve it. Terrorism and extortion.    

AI could be a bigger problem.

Following President Donald Trump's 26% tariff on Indian goods, "Analysts say while the headline number of 26% might appear massive, it comes as a relief because of no incremental impact on large exporting sectors like IT services, pharma and autos." Still, "Most analysts see IT services to be the biggest casualty of Trump's tariffs war, This impact will not come directly from tariffs imposed on India but rather from a slowdown in the form of US discretionary spending as a result of these measures." Mint. Can India take advantage of higher tariffs on other countries? "High tariffs on Chinese and Bangladeshi exports open space for Indian textile manufacturers," and "While Taiwan leads in semiconductors, India can tap into packaging, testing and lower-end chip manufacturing." "India's share of global exports is a mere 1.5%." BBC. Global Capability Centers (GCCs) set up by multinationals "have progressed from cheap outsourcing to the most complex design and R&D." GCCs could be generating revenues of $121 billion and exporting $102 billion, wrote Swaminathan SA Aiyar. "For now, Indian workers provide value-for-money services, such as debugging code, writing algorithms, checking legal documents, or providing basic financial advice." But soon AI will be able to do this work much faster and more accurately. "For India to remain a global leader in high-skill services, its quality of human capital must be upgraded," wrote Rohit Lamba & Raghuram Rajan. Which means concentrating on education and training in technology. "India will face much more hostility from the rest of the world, as it tries to grow, than China did during the last few decades," wrote Prof Aswath Damodaran. China was a clear winner from globalization and "now accounts for nearly 38% of global GDP growth (2010-2023). Already, "India's services declined for the second month in row in February to USD 31.62 billion," from "USD 34.72 billion in January against USD 36.96 billion in December 2024." ET. The latest National Trade Estimate Report on Foreign Trade Barriers in the US says, "India has conducted a number of localized shutdowns of internet in recent years. These shutdowns restrict access to information and services, disrupting commercial operations, and thereby undermining a free and open internet and impeding trade in digital economy." TOI. India has the proud record of the highest number of internet shutdowns for six years running. In 2024, India had 84 shutdowns, just second to the 85 by the military junta in Myanmar. "Goldman Sachs has reduced price targets on information technology (IT) stocks by 3% to 32% citing lower revenue growth forecasts driven by macroeconomic uncertainty in the US." The US accounts for 60% of India's IT revenues. ET. Tariffs are a problem. But AI could be a bigger one. Unless we wake up.

Now we know.

"US President Donald Trump slapped India with some of the highest tariff rates imposed on any major US trading partner," as "The Trump administration imposed a 26% tariff on imports from India, which is slightly higher than the 20% levy for the European Union, the 24% for Japan and 25% for South Korea." ET. The State Bank of India projected a reduction of 3-3.5% for India's exports to the US. "US total goods trade with India were an estimated $129.2 billion in 2024." India imported goods worth $41.8 billion while exporting goods worth $87.4 billion to the US. "The US goods trade deficit with India was $45.7 billion in 2024, a 5.4% increase ($2.3 billion) over 2023." ustr.gov. "The latest Emkay report estimates that India could lose around $6 billion (0.16% of its GDP) in exports to the US if tariffs are set at 10%. If the US increases the tariff to 25%, the impact could rise significantly to $31 billion." ET. "Trump...announced China will be hit with a 34% tariff, on top of the 20% he previously imposed earlier this year, bringing the total new levies to 54%." "Trump also signed an executive order closing a trade loophole known as 'de minimis' that has allowed low value packages from China and Hong Kong to enter the US duty free." China sells more than $400 billion worth of goods to the US annually. Reuters. In April 2024-January 2025, India's total merchandise exports were worth $358.91 billion, while imports were $601.90 billion. Services exports were $323.68 billion while imports were $168.17 billion, giving a total trade deficit of $87.47 billion. pib.gov.in. Should the tariff of 54% on China be a cause for celebration? Sadly no. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman "highlighted the necessity for India to navigate the escalating global tariff conflicts 'smartly' to protect against potential dumping of goods from nations facing increased US tariffs." ET. As China looks for alternate markets for its goods, India's manufacturers, used to being protected by high tariffs, could be swamped.  In November 2024, services exports were "provisionally estimated at $35.7 billion, compared with $32.1 billion of merchandise or goods exports." This was the first time services exports were higher than goods exports. TOI. A poor country moves from agriculture to industrialization and then to services but India has skipped the industrial phase and gone straight to services. "In a globalized set up, there is nothing wrong in having a more developed services sector, but the worry is that our dependence on imports will tend to increase if we do not create the domestic capabilities needed for a manufacturing upsurge," wrote Madan Sabnavis. Trump wants India to import food grains from the US but India should resist that because the US heavily subsidises food production (BBC) and it will be disastrous for our farmers. Trump has shown his hand. Can we trump him?   

Gold, not Goldilocks.

"The Indian central bank will collaborate with the government to improve the inflation targeting framework and to obtain the 'Goldilocks conditions' for inflation and growth through appropriate monetary and fiscal policies, said Governor Sanjay Malhotra." Goldilocks is a golden-haired girl in a fairy tale for pre-school children, emphasizing perfection. wikipedia. Hopefully, the governor is not spinning a fairy tale for us. "Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is the custodian of our financial system. It completed 90 years of its journey yesterday. The theme for our 90th year was 'Stability, Trust and Growth'," wrote Governor Malhotra. Stability of prices "is important as inflation erodes the value of money" and "hurts the poor even more." However, "Experts believe that a moderate level of inflation is healthy for economic growth." What is moderate? Define it, please. In 2021, the RBI was asked by the government "to maintain retail inflation at 4% with a margin of 2% on either side for another five-year period ending in March 2026." ET. The RBI has been consistently overshooting the 4% target by more than 1% since 2014. RI. The reason inflation fell below 4% from 2017 to 2019 was because the GDP growth rate fell dramatically from 8.26% in 2016 to 3.87% in 2019 (pre-Covid) (Macrotrends) because of the "failure of epic proportions" in the demonetization of Rs 500 and Rs 1000 banknotes on 8 November 2016 (wrote Vivek Kaul). One indication of soaring prices is the rise of 9.9% year-on-year (YoY) in goods and services tax (GST) collections at Rs 1.96 trillion in March. "Net GST collections for FY25 is Rs 19.56 trillion, up 8.6%. ET. "Stability also refers to financial stability" and "includes stable foreign exchange rates". The exchange of the Rupee was 59.44 to one US dollar on 15 May 2014 (Thomas Cook), the day Mr Modi won his first general election (wikipedia). One USD buys Rs 85.63 this morning (xe.com) a drop of 44%. If a ship sinks by 44% in water, nobody in his right mind would call it stable, would they? "Currency will serve its purpose only if the public trusts it to be safe to use." But, Indians do not trust the currency or the government's inflation rates. The RBI's survey of households in January 2025 showed that median inflation perception was 8.3% (rbi.org.in), nearly double the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rate of 4.31% (Provisional) (mospi.gov.in). Inflation expectation at three months was 9.3% and at one year was 10.2%. Despite the RBI's forecast of an inflation rate of 4.2% for FY 2025-26 ET. People do not believe the inflation rate or the RBI. As for the rupee, "India's gold imports fell to 712.1 tonnes in 2024, down from 744 tonnes in 2023, according to the World Gold Council. CNBC. In 2023, Indian households held 24,000 to 25,000 tons, or over 25 million kilograms of gold. TOI. Because, "Traditionally, gold's acted as an inflation hedge," wrote Somnath Mukherjee. "Desire for gold is not the gold. It is for the means of freedom and benefit," said Ralph Waldo Emerson. Governor Malhotra has good intentions but should not resort to fairy tales. Listen to the people. They don't believe.    

Bracketed with China.

"This week, FM Nirmala Sitharaman defended the provisions of the new income tax bill, which allows any authorized officer to 'break open the lock of any door, box, locker, safe, almirah, or other receptacle...or gain access by overriding the access code to any said computer system or virtual digital space, where the access code thereof is not available." ET. There seems to be no safeguard for citizens, such as obtaining a warrant from a judge after showing credible evidence for any suspicion of wrongdoing or compensation for damage to property. The law makes officials completely unaccountable. "The police force, tasked with maintaining order and protecting citizens, has become a source of fear" because of "Custodial torture, third-degree interrogation methods and custodial deaths" as "The absence of accountability allows police officers to abuse their authority, often victimizing the very people they are meant to protect," wrote Karti P Chidambaram. A government, drunk with unlimited power over citizens, is unable to accept any objection to its actions from other countries. "The ministry of external affairs...strongly refuted a report published by the New York Times" which "alleged that between 2023 and 2024, a British aerospace firm, HR Smith Group, shipped restricted technology to HAL (Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd), which was later linked to transactions involving Russia's state-owned arms agency Rosoboronexport." TOI. "The government...hit out at US Commission on Religious Freedom (USCIRF) for raising concerns in its annual report about India's treatment of minorities and seeking sanctions against RAW for allegedly plotting to kill Sikh separatists.  TOI. "A report by the United States intelligence community has identified India and China as 'state actors' often 'directly or indirectly' enabling 'non-state actors' as sources of precursors and equipment for drug traffickers." DH. The US is accusing arms of the Indian State of facilitating smuggling of precursors of fentanyl to the US. India reacted furiously by expelling Canadian diplomats after former Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau publicly accused Indian agents of assassinating Canadian citizen Hardeep Singh Nijjar in Canada. BBC. Trudeau has resigned and Mark Carney is the new prime minister of Canada. AP. And yet, "India is likely to interfere in the Canadian general election on April 28 the country's spy service said." ET. Canada's Liberal Party has revoked Indian-origin Chandra Arya's bid to run for the party leadership and the nomination in his own Ottawa Nepean constituency over his alleged ties to the Indian government." HT. India is being bracketed with China, not for creating wealth or being a manufacturing behemoth, but as a delinquent state engaged in smuggling drugs, murdering citizens of other countries and oppressing minorities. A nation that brutalizes its own citizens with complete impunity becomes deluded in the width of its own power. Other nations will react. With anger. And contempt.        

Gun to the head good for us.

"Donald Trump has set April 2 as the date for implementing reciprocal tariffs on a range of imports," and "revealed he was initially planning to enact the tariffs on April 1. However, he decided to delay by one day to avoid the possibility of being accused of an April Fool's joke." ET. "India and the United States have agreed to finalize part of a bilateral trade deal by this year but neither side gave indications of any tariff exemptions for the world's most populous nation." "India's protectionist policies and its trade surplus with the US leave it open to retaliatory tariffs from the Trump administration." ET. Trump warned of a 25%-50% tariff on Russian oil if President Putin does not sign a peace deal with Ukraine. "India would be unable to do business in the US" because "India imports over 85% of its oil needs" and "According to a CREA report, India purchased fossil fuels worth EUR 205.84 billion from Russia from the start of the war until 2 March 2025." TNIE. India exports $2.2 billion worth of auto parts to the US every year. If 25% tariffs are applied uniformly on all countries, India will not lose its competitive advantage. However, what Indian companies "do fear is pressure from importers to absorb at least part of the cost, thereby eroding profitability." TOI. "The US is pushing India to relax non-tariff barriers," including local content requirements, differential tax treatment, quality control orders, data localisation policies, Minimum Support Price on agricultural produce and a level playing field for Indian and US banks. CNBC. That would be terrifying for Indian businesses which, protected by high tariffs and non-tariff barriers, are accustomed to making huge profits by selling to Indians at high prices without having to bother about quality or innovation. South Korea "spends 5% of its GDP on R&D, whereas India only 0.7%. Of this small sum, the Indian private sector contributes a niggardly 41% against Korea's 79%. Samsung invests 8-11% in R&D, but Reliance a paltry 0.6%," wrote Prof Dipankar Gupta. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been protecting a "small team of national champions" "from foreign competition, tariffs that in 2011 had almost fallen to China's 7% level were raised to 12% level by 2022, among the highest in the world. The preference for shielding oligarchs with hefty tariffs, favorable government contracts, as well as non-tariff barriers like stifling rules for foreign-backed commerce, has been pretty well known internationally," wrote Andy Mukherjee. The Indian government is "now convinced that Indian manufacturing will never be able to produce things more cheaply or with consistently higher quality than its peers," wrote Mihir Sharma. "The two moments when India carried out substantive reforms, it had a gun held to its head." "Trump threatening to pull the trigger will be the third. It is just what was needed to wake-up India's self-congratulatory establishment from its headline-managing fantasies," wrote Shekhar Gupta. If Trump does pull the trigger on tariffs, India can respond by exporting guns to the US. Trump has officially promised to protect Second Amendment rights. The White House. Let us supply him with triggers to pull. Compensate for tariffs. 

Interesting times.

In September 2024, "The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has approved a $7 billion loan to cash-strapped Pakistan." "Pakistan has taken more than 20 loans from the IMF since 1958 and is currently its fifth-largest debtor." BBC. On 25 March, "The IMF said...it has reached agreement with Pakistan on a new $1.3 billion loan program and reviewed an existing bailout that would, if approved, unlock an additional $1 billion." NDTV. The IMF may help a country in extreme financial difficulty but loans have to be repaid. "Argentina is one of the largest and most frequent borrowers of the IMF." In 2018, it received a record $57 billion loan from the IMF. "Fast forward to early 2025, and the country still faces an outstanding IMF debt of roughly $44 billion." Dawn. On 25 March, "Iran's currency hit a record low of 1,039,000 rials to the US dollar.., as the absence of nuclear talks with the US continues to fuel economic uncertainty." "The steep decline began after Israel launched devastating attacks on Iran's proxy, Hezbollah, in Lebanon in September, undermining Tehran's regional influence." The election of Donald Trump as US President has added to the pain. Iran Int. "The Chinese government has promised new child care subsidies, increased wages and better paid leave to revive a slowing economy. That is on top of a $41bn discount program for all sorts of things, from dishwashers and home decor to electric vehicles and smart watches." "While the US and other major powers have struggled with post-Covid inflation, China is experiencing the opposite: deflation," as "prices fell for 18 months in a row in the past two years." BBC. As China's economy slowed people cut down on eating out and "That unleashed a price war in which food providers are offering coffees at 9.9 yuan ($1.40) and four-person set meals at 99 yuan ($14)." "A restaurant in China has an average lifespan of just about 500 days, analysts say, falling to as low as a year in Beijing, where municipal data show net restaurant profits plunged 88% in the first half of 2024." Reuters. In 2010, China banned exports of rare earths to Japan after it arrested Chinese fishermen trespassing in its waters. Since then Japan has adopted a policy of "Critical mineral security and the 'garbage is gold' approach." However, waste production is shrinking in Japan but rising in India, so Japan is investing in India. FP. "China will export deflation and recession to the world," said Kotak Mutual Fund MD Nilesh Shah. "After Trump's aggressive tariff push, cheap Chinese goods - redirected from the US - are now flooding emerging markets. Countries from Southeast Asia to Latin America are grappling with job losses, collapsing local industries, and surging trade imbalances.' BT. Just a sample of economic turmoil in the world. Seems that everyone is going to live in interesting times  (wikipedia). Like it, or not.    

Gun to the head.

"Rebutting comments of the Opposition members made in Rajya Sabha," Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said, "So, in response to the tariff announcements made by President Trump, here are we doing it. No, we have been doing it from 2023." HT. Why were they raised in the first place? "Finance Minister Arun Jaitley's budget for 2018-19 proposed an increase in customs duty on a range of products - from fruit juice to mobile phones - to incentivize domestic value addition and boost the government's Make in India program." Mint. In Budget 2019-20, Ms Sitharaman "proposed hike in customs duty on 75 imported items to give a push to Make in India program." India Today. Again in Budget 2020-21, Ms Sitharaman "has provided a definitive push towards government's Make in India theme with import duties hiked on a host of products." BT. In Budget 2021-22, import duties were raised on electronics, auto components and agri produce to help in Atmanirbhar Bharat (self-reliant India) program. BS. What happened to Make in India? Sadly, Bharat could not become Atmanirbhar on Make in India, so Production Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme was launched in 2020, "With an impressive outlay of Rs 1.97 trillion (over US $24 billion)" to provide a leg-up to "14 critical sectors" "to enhance the country's manufacturing prowess". static.pib.gov.in. How successful have these experiments been? "The decade ending 2023-24 shows an interesting trend of a distinct decline in the contribution of manufacturing in India's overall story of economic growth." "In terms of gross value added (GVA), which denotes output, its share has come down from 16.5% in 2013-14 to 14.3% in 2023-24," wrote Madan Sabnavis. Mr Narendra Modi won his first term as prime minister in 2014. wikipedia. Steadily downhill since then. Indeed, India's trade data show that the country's "share in global merchandise exports continues to remain below what it was at the time of Independence, nearly 80 years ago." The Print. "Above all, firms don't know if domestic consumers will be able to buy what they make." "A recent survey of 16,000 consumers by New Delhi-based LocalCircles showed that one in four of them expects their earnings to drop by 25% or more in 2025," wrote Andy Mukherjee. "The huge increase in household debt is alarming" and "the total household debt in India during 2010-11 was 8% of GDP and has now edged up to 37%," said economist Pinaki Chakarborty. Trump's tariffs are a gun held to India's head. "It is just what was needed to wake up India's self-congratulatory establishment from its headline managing fantasies," wrote Shekhar Gupta. Ms Sitharaman has been reducing tariffs since 2023. Please tell us why?

Billionaires and 103.1% GDP.

"There are various headlines coming in everyday from the Trump administration," and "There is chatter of a possibility of stagflation-like situation brewing in the US." "The Rupee has strengthened, following the dollar theme. From a low of 87.95 we are down to sub 86 levels." "Only if we see a big risk off move globally, we may see all time lows of 87.95 get threatened again," wrote Abhishek Goenka. The rupee is trading at just over 85.60 to one dollar this morning. xe.com. "India's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has doubled in the last ten years," and according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) "has seen 103.1% growth in GDP at current prices or nominal GDP." TOI. "Prime Minister Narendra Modi...said the World Bank has expressed confidence that India will continue to be the world's fastest growing economy in the coming years." ET. US President Donald Trump has promised reciprocal tariffs on India from 2 April (India Today), but policymakers here seem confident about avoiding any negative effects. That is because there is "A deep pessimism that Indian manufacturing will never be productive and efficient enough to compete on its own terms," and "may never be able to produce things more cheaply or with consistently higher quality than its peers," wrote Mihir Sharma. So, the hope is that Trump's tariffs will act "as an equalizer for its producers when compared to the rest of the emerging world." "According to the IMF, in 2024, India ranked 142nd out of approximately 190 countries, with a nominal per capita GDP of $2,700." And yet, "With 200 billionaires in 2024, according to Forbes magazine, India ranks third globally in its billionaire count." However, more than 50% of billionaires in India are from established business families and have inherited their wealth, not self made, wrote Arjun Jayadev & Advait Moharir. The greatest aspiration for 'Aspirational Young India' is to get a "government job, a coveted position of stability and security." "For a cohort not yet 30, an alarmingly large number reported fatigue, sleep issues, vitamin deficiencies, anxiety and mental health concerns, difficult menstrual health and debilitating hormonal fluctuations," wrote Mathangi Krishnamurthy & Rama Bijapurkar. However, they blamed their own lack of exercise or failure to stay healthy, showing a lack of faith or hope in the system. "India's latest trade data,..reinforces that the country's share in global merchandise exports continues to remain below what it was at the time of Independence, nearly 80 years ago. Overall, India's share in global goods exports has remained below 2% since 1950." The Print. "India's parallel economy gets a bad name." But Shankar Sharma says, "I love it. It's fantastic." "It keeps us afloat. It's how India weathers most global economic crises better than others - because the parallel economy does not fall as much as the real economy." BT. It also means that our vaunted moniker of the "fastest growing economy" is essentially based on 'jugaad', a 'quick fix' or 'hack' (blogs.lse) forced by a lack of money and resources. Doubled GDP and 200 billionaires resting on the jugaad of hundreds of millions in the parallel economy. No wonder they are not worried about Trump's tariffs. Even Trump can't tax nothing. Can he? 

Sahyog or Grok.

"A prominent Indian comedian is standing by his right to make jokes after an angry mob attacked a comedy club where he had made an onstage jibe at a right-wing politician." "In the video, Kamra does not explicitly name the politician but, in a song, refers to a 'goddar', or 'traitor' - taken to be a reference to Shinde's leadership of a rebellion in 2022 that cause the state's previous government to collapse." CNN. "Mumbai's Habitat studio, a popular venue for stand-up comedy shows, has decided to shut down after Shiv Sena workers vandalised the premises...to protest comic Kunal Kamra's jokes targeting party leader and Maharashtra's Deputy Chief Minister Eknath Shinde." ET. In an egregious and brutal misuse of power, "Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) workers resumed the demolition work of an illegal structure at  Mumbai's Habitat studio." "The civic body's action came after state transport minister Pratap Sarnaik reached out to BMC commissioner Bhushan Gagrani to demolish the studio, calling it illegal." HT. Highly mystifying. How did the transport minister suddenly conclude the structure was illegal, on what basis, and why was it demolished without proof or a court order? "India's IT ministry has unlawfully expanded censorship powers to allow the easier removal of online content and empowered 'countless' government officials to execute such orders, Elon Musk's X has alleged in a new lawsuit against new Delhi." "X later complied following public criticism by officials, but its legal challenge to the decision is continuing in Indian courts." Reuters. "Microblogging platform X's petition in the Karnataka High Court seeks an order restraining the respondents, including various government departments, from 'coercive or prejudicial action' against X Corp, its representatives and employees pertaining to content under any law other than Section 69A of the IT Act, read with procedure mandated by guidelines for blocking online information." "The petition labels the Sahyog portal set up by the Union govt as 'nothing but a censorship' tool." TOI. 'Sahyog' means 'collaboration'. Today's dictators "realize that in current conditions violence is not always necessary." "Instead...a skillful ruler can control them (citizens) by reshaping their beliefs about the world. In place of harsh repression, the new dictators manipulate information." carnegie.org. There is a' large population of "Bhakts", meaning 'disciples', with limited education, who worship Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and accept what they are told as absolute truth. That is why censorship, enforced by a mob of deranged thugs, is an absolute necessity. That is also why India has the proud record of the highest number of internet shutdowns in the world for six years running. India Today. Unfortunately, Musk has now released an AI chatbot named Grok which promises to speak the truth about Dear Leader. The Wire. Musk is a friend of President Donald Trump, at present, and "India and the US have begun bilateral trade negotiations (BBC) to try and avoid reciprocal tariffs on India. And Trump's term has just started. Maybe a long four years.    

A domino effect.

"India is planning to lay out a road map for duty cuts on certain American imports when a US trade team arrives for discussions next week," and "Some of the American imports that this early harvest deal could cover include motorbikes, four-wheelers, fossil fuels and some farm produce such as pulses." HT. That is being clever and hoping the Americans are fools. Very few people will afford a Harley Davidson with prices starting at Rs 239,000 (bikewale) when Hero Motocorp, TVS and Bajaj Auto hold nearly 58% of sales, with Honda sales at 25.5% (autopunditz). In the four-wheeler segment, four companies Maruti Suzuki, Mahindra, Hyundai and Tata Motors hold 80% of the market share. spinny.com. American car companies have left India. "Russia and India are friends and partners." "Russia never came to India as conquerors." The Embassy of the Russian Federation. In 1971, the then Soviet Union protected India from possible attacks by the US Seventh Fleet and the UK Navy. India Times. Also. India is buying Russian oil at a discount of $2.60 to $2.60 per barrel (Reuters), and should not give up this advantage. India is the largest importer of pulses in the world anyway, and imported a record 4.7 million tonnes in 2023-24. BS. India has been importing 17% of its requirement of pulses from Canada (HT) but relations with Canada have been strained in recent years. "China and India are likely to interfere in the Canadian general election on April 28, while Russia and Pakistan have the potential to do so the country's spy service said." Reuters. If we get a good deal from the Americans on pulses it will be to our advantage. But, what if the Americans demand more? " In February, India slashed customs duty on US bourbon whiskey to 100% from 150%. HT. Despite the cut, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt insisted on 13 March that "India's 150% tariff on American alcohol is unhelpful". TOI. "WTO data indicates the US trade-weighted average tariff stands at 2.2%, whilst India's is at 12%. The United States maintains a $45.6 billion trade deficit with India." India wants to reduce tariffs on 55% of US imports, valued at $23 billion, on which it levies 5% to 30% duties. TOI. "US President Donald Trump still intends for new reciprocal tariff rates to take effect on April 2, the White House said," (Reuters) although the latest indications are that certain sectors may be exempt from reciprocal tariffs (ET). The main problem for the government is that if it reduces taxes on American alcohol and cars, the EU and the UK will also demand similar reductions on their whiskey, wine and cars. And if they comply India will be compelled to reduce taxes on Indian drinks and that is the real concern for the government because as per the International Spirits & Wines Association of India (ISWAI), taxes constitute 67%-80% of product prices (BS). Cutting taxes on Indian alcohol will seriously dent revenue collection. A desperate government is demanding $601 million in back taxes from Samsung and its executives and a record $1.4 billion from Volkswagen. ET. Naturally, Volkswagen as sought relief in court. In response, "India's government has told a court in Mumbai that agreeing to Volkswagen's demand to quash $1.4 billion tax bill would have 'catastrophic consequences'." Reuters. It's not just cutting tariffs to please Trump but the domino effect of such action that is terrifying. Could be catastrophic. The government's description.

Starmer wants to fight.

On 15 March, "Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has said military planning to protect a potential Ukraine ceasefire is moving to an 'operational phase' after a virtual meeting with 29 other world leaders." In addition to the UK, the meeting included NATO, the European Union, Canada, Australia and new Zealand. BBC. A bunch of senile white nations trying to stay relevant, and sell a few weapons, by prolonging the unnecessary destruction of Ukraine. On 20 March, "The UK is hosting a closed meeting...of senior military leaders from the 'coalition of the willing', as they draw up plans for a proposed peacekeeping force for Ukraine." BBC. "Russian President Vladimir Putin would breach a peace deal with Ukraine if it is not defended, Starmer has said, after attending a meeting of senior military leaders in London." BBC. No, he absolutely will not. As a former KGB foreign intelligence officer for 16 years (wikipedia), Putin is well aware of the costs of war whereas Starmer is a lawyer by trade and may want to don the mantle of that mass murderer Sir Winston Churchill (wikipedia) by instigating further fighting with Russia, no matter what the human cost. We Indians have suffered the inhuman depredations from the British. Research by Dylan Sullivan and Jason Hickel has revealed an excess of 60 million to 165 million excess deaths in India in just 40 years from 1880 to 1920. "The number even surpasses the deaths from both the World Wars, including Nazi Holocaust." ET. Also, as estimated by economic historian Utsa Patnaik, Britain looted $45 trillion from India from 1765 to 1938. ET. Thankfully, "Sir Keir Starmer's plan for an international force to support a ceasefire in Ukraine has been dismissed as 'a posture and a pose' by Donald Trump's special envoy. Steve Witkoff said the idea was based on a 'simplistic notion' of the UK prime minister and other European leaders thinking 'we have all got to be like Winston Churchill'." BBC. Could not have put it better. On 23 October, "Donald Trump's campaign has accused British Prime Minister Keir Starmer's Labour Party of 'blatant foreign interference' in the US presidential election after some volunteers traveled to help campaign for Vice President Kamala Harris." Reuters. Starmer should rid himself of delusions of grandeur and concentrate on Britain which is rapidly going downhill. "Britain's economic output contracted unexpectedly by 0.1% in January, pulled down by a sharp drop in manufacturing output compared with December." ET. Calling it a "reform", Starmer has slashed Personal Independence Payment (PIP) for disabled people to save 5 billion pounds by 2029-30. independent.co.uk. Last year, he stopped winter fuel payments for millions of old people (BBC) while personally accepting tens of thousands of pounds in gifts for himself and his family (independent). If people can't buy, companies will manufacture less. Logical. His hero Churchill may have been naked only in front of President Roosevelt (International Churchill Society), but, in these days of the internet, Starmer is naked in front of the whole world. Shame on him.