Wrong hyphenation.

"India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi told US President Donald Trump during a 35-minute telephonic conversation that there was no third-party involvement in ceasefire between India and Pakistan, countering a claim Trump has repeatedly made." ET. "But Trump just said - for the 15th time in 38 days - that he stopped the war. Who's lying?" asked Congress leader Manicham Tagore. "Why is a foreign leader the first to announce a crucial national security move? Even more strange - Why did India's Foreign Secretary issue a statement only in Hindi, on a matter of global diplomacy?" DH. Trump has been a teetotaler all his life  (TOI), so are we accusing him of hallucinating? "In a rare shift from his usual rhetoric US President Donald Trump refrained from taking credit for halting military hostilities between India and Pakistan, instead praising the leadership of PM Modi and Pakistan's Army Chief Asim Munir." ET. Just because he left it unsaid, it does not mean he is denying he called first. He could be praising both for heeding his advice. Trump "hosted Pakistan's army chief Field Marshall Asim Munir at the White House yesterday," "The lunch meeting was the first time a US president had hosted the powerful head of Pakistan's army...at the White House unaccompanied by senior Pakistani civilian officials." Reuters. This was a serious insult to the government of Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif (wikipedia), not just because Trump ignored it completely, but also because, by accepting the invitation, Munir showed his contempt for the elected government and the people of Pakistan. Also, "Trump doubled down on his mediation claim," and "According to White House Deputy Press Secretary Anna Kelly, Munir personally urged Trump's nomination for the Nobel Peace Prize, citing his 'prevention of a nuclear war' in South Asia." BT. "At the G7 Leaders' Summit in Kananaskis, Alberta, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney held talks with PM Modi and both leaders agreed to designate new high commissioners," and "agreed to resume full diplomatic services, ending the thaw between the two countries, triggered by Canadian allegations that India agents were involved in the killing of NIA-designated terrorist Hardeep Singh Nijjar outside a gurdwara in Canada in Canada in 2023." ET. But, "India is a perpetrator of foreign interference, Canada's intelligence said in a report published yesterday, just after India's and Canada's prime ministers vowed to strengthen ties at a global summit hosted by Canada." Reuters. The timing may be deliberate, to remind India that it must be ready to accept responsibility if the investigation proves Indian involvement in the murder. Mr Modi has visited Cyprus and Canada and is visiting Croatia "to thank partner countries for their 'steadfast support' to India in its fight against cross-border terrorism." TOI. "Cross-border terrorism" means across the border from Pakistan. So, if we keep harping on that phrase we cannot blame if Trump invites Mr Modi and Munir for talks on the same day, thus hyphenating the two (News18). Support for fight against terrorism does not mean support against Pakistan. Other countries are do not hyphenate Pakistan with terror. But, Pakistan with India.   

Financial liabilities.

"India's economy continues to demonstrate resilience amid global uncertainties, as the countries real GDP grew by 7.4% in the fourth quarter of FY25, bringing the full-year growth to 6.5%, surpassing expectations, according to a CareEdge Economic Pathways report." ET. "According to a report by CareEdge Ratings, net household savings is at 18.1% of gross domestic product (GDP) in fiscal 2024, lowest since FY17." "Financial savings at 11.4% are at their highest since FY21. Financial liabilities, due to higher debt, have risen to 6.2% in FY24, compared to 3.2% in FY14." NDTV. Mr Narendra Modi was elected prime minister for the first time in May 2014. wikipedia. FY14 extended from 1 April 2013 to 31 March 2014, and so was the last year before Mr Modi's reign. "The trend is characteristic of a developed economy and is not particularly alarming, said Rajani Sinha, chief economist at CareEdge." But, India is not a developed economy. "In 2007, India moved to the lower-middle income country and since then has remained there. India's per capita GDP stood at $2,390 in 2022." To become upper-middle income, per capita GDP has to reach $4,466-$13,485. To become a $30 trillion economy by 2047, "the Indian economy will have to grow at 9.7% per annum over FY24-FY47 in current USD terms." BT. India's merchandise exports fell 2.17% year-on-year (yoy) to $38.73 billion while imports fell 1.7% yoy to $60.61 billion. "Cumulatively, during Arpil-May 2025-26, exports increased 3.11% to $77.19 billion, while imports rose 8% to $125.52 billion." TT. However, "India's merchandise exports to the US rose by 16.93% to USD 8.83 billion in May, while imports dipped by 5.76% to USD 3.62 billion." During April-May, exports increased 21.78% to $17.25 billion, while imports rose 25.8% to $8,87 billion. ET. Not exactly music to US President Donald Trump's ears. "When Indian and American negotiators sat across the table in New Delhi from June 5 to 7," "The long-pending limited trade deal between India and the United States - which had simmered unresolved since Trump's first tenure - was back on the table, but under new political compulsions and strategic calculations. India and the US aim to double bilateral trade to $500 billion by 2030," wrote Anilesh S Mahajan. India cannot agree to US demands on less control on US tech firms, more intellectual property rights for US pharmaceuticals, higher imports of US agricultural produce and international arbitration in case of trade disputes. Which essentially means that India cannot concede to any US demands. Already the US is to impose a 3.5% tax on remittances by Indians living there. In 2023-24 total remittance from the US was $32 billion. ET. At the moment the Iran-Israel war is unlikely to have any major impact on the Indian economy but, if the conflict affects oil supply, prices could rise sharply and cause a spike in inflation. ET. If the US increases tariffs on Indian products, trade deficit and current account deficit could go up. The rupee could come under pressure. A weaker rupee will make inflation worse. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has cut its policy rate by a cumulative 100 basis points in 2025 (HT), and transferred an eye-watering Rs 2.69 trillion dividend to the government for the last financial year (ET) so will it cope with any sudden fall in the rupee? Hope we don't have to find out. Already people are borrowing to spend. We don't want to be left holding the bag (Collins).

     

Mr Modi in Canada.

Prime Minister Mark Carney of Canada will host leaders of Italy, US, France, Germany, UK and Japan in Kananaskis, Alberta. "The summit was set to be a test of his ability to meet three lofty goals he advanced for Canada - taking a leadership role on the global stage, becoming the strongest G7 economy and weaning off US dependency." BBC. With a tiny population of just over 40 million (worldometer) Canada's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) cannot possibly become bigger than other G7 countries but perhaps Carney is thinking of Luxembourg and Ireland whose GDP per capita is much higher than that of the US (wikipedia). "Weaning off US dependency" is impossible because the US accounts for 62.97% of Canada's total trade, with the European Union (EU) being a distant second with just 10.50%. wikipedia. Even an attempt at reducing trade with the US could lead to a serious recession. "Taking a leadership role on the global stage" could be successful because Canada does not share any of its borders with an enemy state. It's main land border is with the US and it shares a tiny negligible border on Hans Island with Greenland (and hence with the Kingdom of Denmark) and a maritime border with "France's overseas collectivity of Saint Pierre and Miquelon to the southeast". wikipedia. In fact, Canada's ties to the US could enlarge as "President Donald Trump has said he believes the US will gain control of Greenland," even though "Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen insisted Greenland was not for sale in a fiery phone call with the president." BBC.  Canada could become more closely intertwined with the US as "Donald Trump raised the matter of making Canada the US's 51st state in a March call with Carney." BBC. In which case, the G7 will become G6. "Canada's factories hit the brakes April 2025 as manufacturing sales plunged 2.8% to $69.6 billion," "linked to tariffs imposed by the US, hitting key industries, especially steel, aluminium and autos, just as plants were gearing up for spring production." ET. As a result, "Canadian Gen Z is confronting its toughest challenge in decades as they graduate into a hostile labor market." Youth unemployment aged 15-24 reached its highest level since the mid-1990s. ET. It seems that Carney placed a condition for accepting "continued law acceptance dialogue" and "issues of accountability" for the killing of Hardeep Singh Nijjar before inviting Prime Minister Narendra Modi to the G7 meeting. The Wire. However, the G7 meeting has lost its relevance because Trump is returning early to Washington in view of the war between Iran and Israel. CNN. Before indulging in schadenfreude, Mr Modi's disciples in India should remember that "Thousands of Indian nationals working in Canada, particularly under the Temporary Foreign Worker Program, are losing their legal work status." ET. So as not to be deported back to India, thousands of Indians have sought asylum claiming to be LGBTQ. CNBC. Why this desperation not to come back home? Why is Canada so much better to live in than India? It would be worth finding out.        

They are us.

"A Lufthansa Airlines flight from Frankfurt to Hyderabad was forced to return to Frankfurt Airport yesterday evening after receiving a bomb threat while still outside Indian airspace." "An official from Hyderabad Airport confirmed the diversion." Lufthansa Airlines said, "We did not receive a permit to land in Hyderabad and that's why the aircraft took a u-turn and returned." Zee. If there was a bomb threat to the aircraft, the German security services would be immediately involved and Lufthansa would not make a casual statement. If the bomb threat was against the airport, all flights should have been stopped. Very, very odd. "According to J&K (Jammu and Kashmir) Students Association (JKSA), more than 1,300 Indian students are stuck in the war in Iran." "JKSA convenor Nasir Khuehami said students are facing increasing insecurity." TOI. In 2023, there were 8,92,989 Indian students studying abroad, of whom 2,34,473 are in the US, followed by Canada with 2,33,532, and the United Kingdom with 1,36,921. HT. Most Indians in higher studies would be conversant in English, so these figures are understandable, but why are Kashmiris going to Iran? "In the wake of the gruesome killings of 26 tourists and a local Muslim in Baisaran Valley of Pahalgam," "Faced with harassment, assault, and open threats in at least 17 incidents targeting Kashmiri students, hundreds of them were forced to leave their exams mid-semester and return to their homeland." Kashmir Times. On 5 August 2019, Article 370, which gave a special status to J&K, was abrogated and J&K came under the Indian Constitution like other states. wikipedia. This also means that Kashmiris are fully Indian citizens, with the right to live, work and study in any part of India in complete safety and with no fear of being terrorised by brainless goons. "Punjabi musician Sidhu Moosewala was shot dead by unidentified assailants in his car on 29 May 2022 in Jawaharke village of Mansa at the age of 28." wikipedia. Moosewala "spotlighted the darker undercurrents of India's Punjab region - gangster culture, unemployment, and political decay." His shooting was claimed by gangster Goldy Brar of the Lawrence Bishnoi gang. "Now 31, Bishnoi runs his syndicate from behind bars - with dedicated Instagram pages and a cult-like following." BBC. Brar is abroad and Bishnoi is in prison. But, According to the Association for Democratic Reforms (ADR), "Based on affidavits submitted by 512 of the 513 current women MPs and MLAs, the report said 143 - or 28% - have declared criminal cases against themselves." "Also, 78 women lawmakers (15%) are facing serious criminal charges, such as attempt to murder and even murder." ET. With such mayhem going on, why was a civilian flight asked to go back? If Hyderabad Airport had problems, why not land at another Indian airport? So many questions. No answer.     

Essential consumption.

"Data released by the National Statistics Office (NSO)...showed retail inflation, as measured by the consumer price index (CPI), slumped to 2.8% in May, below the 3.2% in April." " Food inflation eased to nearly 1% in May, with a sharp decline of 79 points during the month compared to April." TOI. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has already anticipated the fall in the rate of inflation by announcing a "jumbo" cut of 50 basis points (bps) in its policy rate and a 100 bps cut in the Cash Reserve Ratio of banks, starting on 6 September, which is expected to release Rs 2.5 trillion into the banking system, despite already adding "Rs 9.5 trillion to durable liquidity", according to Governor Sanjay Malhotra. The 2.8% rise in inflation in May is on top of a 4.8% rise in the same month in 2024, which was on top of a 4.3% rise in 2023, 7.0% in 2022, 6.3% in 2021 and a 6.3% rise in May 2020. rateinflation.com. Since inflation compounds year-on-year, any rise in inflation just worsens the purchasing power of households. It, however, is a great boon for the government as the average monthly GST collections have risen from Rs 899 billion in 2017-18 to Rs 1.84 trillion in 2024-25 (Tata nexarc). Not surprising that, "Private consumption in the Indian economy moderated slightly in the fourth quarter (January-March 2025) of FY25, according to a recent report by the Bank of Baroda." The RBI's Consumer Confidence Survey in January 2025 showed that 64.4% of the 6081 respondents said that their expenditure had risen more than income, with "More than 40% of the respondents saw their spending rising while their income remained the same, while the remainder saw spending rise or remain the same while incomes fell." Essential spending has risen faster than non-essential spending, wrote Roshan Kishore. As a result of the mismatch in expenditure and income, the share of personal loans in the Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) has doubled between 2011-12 and 2024-25, wrote Kishore. Rising prices helped, "Indian corporate profits hit a remarkable 17-year high in F25, with Nifty-500 companies achieving a profit to GDP ratio of 4.7%, according to a report by Motilal Oswal." "Nifty-500 companies demonstrated, resilience with 10.5% year-on-year profit growth in FY25, building upon FY24's 30.5% increase and achieving a five-year CAGR of 30.3%." TOI. Profits are being generated by raising prices and not by increasing volumes, as "India's soft industrial momentum, a widening trade gap, and early signs of business caution warrant close tracking as H2 2025 unfolds, according to a report by LLama Research." "The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) has slowed to 2.7%, due to weakness in mining, manufacturing and electricity sectors." ET. If manufacturing is soft there will be lower demand for minerals and electricity. It's logical. With the RBI hacking interest rates, companies will be able to borrow at lower rates to pay back previous debt borrowed when rates were higher. That will increase their profits even further and possibly increase tax collections. Companies profit on household debts. Greed is good. Reddit.      

A tiny window.

"Israel launched a series of airstrikes against Iran early yesterday morning local time, targeting locations it said were related to Iran's nuclear program," and killing the chief of the Iranian Armed Forces Mohammad Hossein Bagheri, as well as the commander-in-chief of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Hossein Salami. Two nuclear scientists, Fereydoun Abbasi-Davani and Mohammad Mehdi Tehranchi were killed. CNN. On 15 May, "US President Donald Trump says that Iran has 'sort of' agreed to the terms of a nuclear deal with the United States." "Earlier, an adviser to Iran's Supreme Leader told NBC News that Tehran was willing to make concessions on its nuclear program in exchange for the lifting of sanctions." BBC. "Saudi Arabia's defence minister delivered a blunt message to Iranian officials in Tehran last month (April): take Donald Trump's offer to negotiate a nuclear agreement seriously because it presents a way to avoid the risk of war with Israel." "Trump had unexpectedly announced just over a week earlier that direct talks were taking place with Tehran, aimed at curbing Iran's nuclear program in return for sanctions relief." Reuters. For Israel, this is a tiny window of opportunity it may never again get in the future. In September 2024, "At least 32 people, including two children, were killed and thousands more injured, many seriously, after communication devices, some used by the armed group Hezbollah, dramatically exploded across Lebanon." On the first day pagers exploded after receiving messages from Hezbollah's leadership and the next day walkie-talkies, purchased by the Hezbollah five months previously, exploded killing 20.  BBC. Since 7 October 2023, when Hamas attacked Israel, killing 1,195 people and taking 250 hostages (wikipedia), Israel has been relentless in its attacks on Hamas fighters and leadership in Gaza. One year after the attack, till October 2024, "Israel claims it has killed 17,000 gunmen out of Hamas' 25,000 to 30,000 fighters, but detailed reports identify only nearly 8,500 military fatalities." ACLED. As Gaza has been reduced to rubble, "On the streets of Gaza, more and more Palestinians are expressing open defiance against the armed group that's ruled the strip for almost 20 years. BBC. The best opportunity is that Trump is president and not the anti-Israel Barack Hussein Obama and Joe Biden. In 2015, "The Bethlehem-based news agency Ma'an has cited a Kuwaiti newspaper report,..that US President Barack Obama thwarted an Israeli military attack against Iran's nuclear facilities in 2014 by threatening to shoot down Israeli jets before they could reach their targets in Iran. Following Obama's threat, Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu was forced to abort the planned attack." Israel National News. This could be the beginning of the end of Islam because, as Imam Suyuti explained that Allah "gave the Ummah a choice between another 1000 years or 500 years depending on whether they could maintain their religion in front of Allah, but since Islam began to decline after the first 1000 years Allah only granted them another 500 years." ghayb.com. So, Islam is to survive a total of 1500 al-Hijri years. The al-Hijri year 1446 is to end on 26 June 2025. wikipedia. "The Hijri date 1.1.1500 corresponds to the Gregorian date of Friday, November 27, 2076. datehijri.com. Friday, or Yawm al-Jum'ah is the day of prayers for all Muslims. wikipedia. What an auspicious day for Islam to end. Al-Hamdulillah.       

Conditional invite.

 After meetings in Egypt, Ethiopia, South Africa and Qatar, "India's response to the Pahalgam massacre - precise and proportionate strikes from May 7-10 - was clearly understood. There was no skepticism, no demand for proof of Pakistan's complicity." "Crucially none equated or 'hyphenated' India and Pakistan," and "the aim of the global outreach was not to win approval," wrote ex-envoy Syed Akbaruddin. On 22 April 2025, terrorists shot 26 civilians at Pahalgam in Kashmir, of whom 24 were Hindu tourists, one was Christian and one was a Kashmiri Muslim. wikipedia. On 07 May, India launched retaliatory attacks on Pakistan, named operation Sindoor. pib.gov.in. 'Sindoor' is a vermilion powder applied in the hair parting by married Hindu women and is wiped off as a sign of widowhood. Since all the victims were men, the name implies revenge for wiping the vermilion of our women. Evocative. The delegation visiting Guyana, Panama, Colombia, Brazil and the US "strove to underscore India's zero tolerance of cross-border terrorism," and "Another vital goal was to impress on our international interlocutors Pakistan's complicity in such acts of terror and its malign nurturing of terror groups." "The ultimate objective of this outreach was to garner global support for India's counterterrorism efforts," wrote MP Shashi Tharoor. While Mr Akbaruddin did not seek to "win approval", Mr Tharoor wanted to "garner global support". Seek support in the Americas but not in Africa or the Middle East. Different strokes for different folks. Collins. 'India's outlook resonated far more strongly with American lawmakers," and "My delegation has come away from its mission immensely satisfied," said Mr Tharoor. Three cheers, and more. But the support came to an abrupt end when "The Trump Administration invited Pakistan Army Chief Field Marshall Asim Munir to attend the US Army Day celebrations on June 14." DH. In April, this same Munir said, "You have to narrate to your children so that they don't forget it when our forefathers thought we were different from Hindus in every possible aspect of life." "We are two nations, we are not one nation." Hatred against Hindus, not India. US General Michael 'Erik' Kurilla praised Pakistan as a "phenomenal partner in the counter-terrorism world". ET. "Phenomenal" "counter-terrorism", after Mr Tharoor explained Pakistan's "malign nurturing of terror groups". Speaking different languages? "Prime Minister Narendra Modi's invitation to the upcoming G7 outreach meeting in Canada next week comes after significant understanding with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, including a commitment to law enforcement as per reports in the Canadian media." "A federal Liberal source told The Toronto Star that Carney had placed 'conditions' on the invitation extended to the Indian prime minister." The Wire. Why react angrily to former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau (BBC) while eating humble pie with Carney. Who knows, Munir might be there. A group photo with Munir. No conditions on Munir.    

Guessing the future.

"Indian government bond yields declined in early deals yesterday as investors, led by state-run banks, stepped up purchases after a three-session selloff." "These lenders bought over 125 billion rupees ($1.46 billion) of bonds on a net basis in the last two sessions." Mint. These banks may be owned by the government but the money is ours. "The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) on 6 June slashed repo rate by 50 basis points (bps) to 5.5%, marking a third consecutive rate cut this year. ET. About a month ago, "The US Federal Reserve held its key interest rate unchanged in a range between 4.25%-4.5%, where it has been since December." CNBC. The Fed's wait-and-watch response was due to the "uncertainty about how President Donald Trump's tariffs will raise inflation and/or slow growth," wrote Mythili Bhusnurmath. The RBI's Governor Sanjay Malhotra argued that "the growth needs support, hence the need to front-load action." Does it? "On the contrary, not only has growth done better than expected, with fourth quarter (January- March 2025) growth at 7.4%, better than RBI's December projection of 7.2%, but the growth projection for 2025-26 has also been left unchanged at 6.5%." Not content with its 'bazooka', "In addition to the rate cut, the RBI has lowered the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) by 100 bps to 3%, which will be implemented in four tranches starting from the fortnight beginning 6 September 2025." BT. This move will inject Rs 2.5 trillion into the banking system. To utilize this flood of cash banks will lower their lending rates which will encourage borrowing which will stimulate new investments and create jobs. A virtuous cycle. However, "Private consumption which accounts for over half the economy remains soft." "In the fourth quarter of 2024-25, despite headline GDP growth of 7.4%, it grew just 6%," wrote Srinath Sridharan. If demand for loans remains weak banks will lower interest it pays on deposits, forcing savers to look for alternative investments to augment income. India's share markets are already red hot. While Indian cement company stocks sell at 33-34 times expected earnings, "China's Anhui Conch Cement Co trades below a price-to-earnings multiple of 10 in Hong Kong, wrote Andy Mukherjee. Those who invest in stocks at these levels could suffer huge losses if there is a meaningful correction. People may be ignored but, "Analysts quoted in a Reuters report warned that the move has left the rupee vulnerable to further depreciation by eroding foreign exchange forward premiums and weakening the currency's carry trade appeal." India Today. "In general, carry trade is any strategy where an investor borrows capital at a lower interest rate to invest in assets with a potentially higher return." Investopedia. But, the US interest rate is at 4.5% while that of India's is 5.5% which gives a return of 100 bps. So what is the problem? The problem is that "US consumer prices increased less than expected in May," with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising by 2.4% year-on-year in May (Reuters), while India's CPI inflation was up 3.16% (Provisional) in April  (pib.gov.in), with food, which makes up nearly half of the CPI basket (mospi.gov.in) prices rising by just 1.78%. Since food prices are dependent on supply any variation in the monsoon could push prices up. Not just one bazooka, the RBI transferred a bazooka dividend of Rs 2.69 trillion to the government from profits it made in the last financial year. BS. What happens if inflation increases in both the US and India? Will foreign investors sell out leaving India investors with serious losses in both bond and stock markets? The RBI is relaxed because since the Centre owns public sector banks it will refinance any losses. TOI. But the RBI is also fully owned by the government of India. rbi.org.in. Public sector banks may be following government orders but is the RBI doing the same? Will the government rescue the RBI if it's running out of cash? Guessing the future is astrology. The US Fed hesitates, the RBI rushed in. Who's the angel in this (wiktionary)? 

Flourish, or else.

"While India continues to be the most populous country, with an estimated 1.46 billion people in 2025, the country's total fertility rate (TRF) has fallen to 1.9, below the replacement level of 2.1, according to a report by the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA)." ET. This is an estimate because this government postponed the census which was due in 2021. The first census was held in 1872 and has been held every 10 years since (wikipedia), regardless of any emergency affecting the nation. At long last, the government has declared that "the Census-2027 with caste enumeration would be undertaken in two phases across the country, by October 1, 2026 in snow-bound and hilly areas like Jammu & Kashmir, Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand, and by March 1, 2027, in the rest of the country." BS. According to a report by the World Bank, "the proportion of people living on less than $2.15 a day, which is the international benchmark for extreme poverty, fell sharply from 16.2% in 2011-12 to just 2.3% in 2022-23," lifting 171 million people out of extreme poverty." pib.gov.in. However, "With the World Bank raising its threshold poverty line to $3 a day from the earlier $2.15 a day, the extreme poverty for India declines sharply to 5.3% in 2022-23." TIE. "India remains the world's fastest-growing major economy," with its GDP growing 6.5% in FY 25, down from 9.2% in FY 24. ET. And yet, "While incomes have risen, they have not translated into improved well-being when access to essential public goods such as healthcare, education, transportation and digital infrastructure remains unequal." "Only 19% of households in UP and 21.5% in Bihar have access to clean cooking fuel," wrote Prof Deepanshu Mohan & Aditi Desai. "India will become the fourth largest economy in the world, surpassing Japan, according to the latest World Economic Outlook April 2025 edition of the International Monetary Fund." TOI. "But behind our headline-grabbing figures lies a troubling reality: stagnant wages, biting inflation, insufficient jobs and growing inequality." "Retail pioneer Kishore Biyani categorizes the India population into three groups: India 1 (about 120 million people who can afford domestic help), India 2, (about 300 million domestic helpers, drivers and delivery workers), and India 3 (nearly a billion people earning less than $3 a day). India 2 is under severe stress and barely growing, wrote Ravi Venkatesh. There is a big difference between the sexes. "Among unmarried girls and women, the participation rate in learning or studying is quite high (73%), even higher than such males (58%). However, this does not translate into a higher participation rate in employment post-marriage (25% for women, against 82% for men)," wrote Pragya Srivastava. Curiously, a new survey - the Global Flourishing Study (GFS) - shows that women in India flourish more than men, the employed flourish more than the unemployed but students flourish more than the employed, and, unlike in other countries, "People who have never been married flourish the most among different sections," wrote Abhishek Jha. That anyone thrives at all is astonishing when we live in constant dread of our government, wrote Partha Sinha. "As Ashish Nandy observed, colonial power in India wasn't dismantled - it was domesticated. The Viceroy became the Collector. The Queen's English morphed into affidavit Hindi. But the emotional structure of dread stayed perfectly intact." When you live in dread you must flourish. Or else.        

Undiplomatic shenanigans.

 "In what was a clear battle of perception on American soil, India's diplomatic outreach...has significantly outclassed Pakistan's attempts to peddle its narrative, leaving Islamabad visibly embarrassed on the global stage." Both US Vice President JD Vance and Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau reaffirmed support for India's fight against terrorism and strategic relationship with the US. Bland diplomatic words. They urged action against Jaish-e-Mohammad group for killing Daniel Pearl in 2002 and asked for the release of "Dr Shakeel Afridi, the doctor who helped the CIA locate Osama bin Laden in Abbottabad." MC. Why are we begging for US approval anyway? Why does the US support Pakistan? Because, "It bordered the Soviet sphere. It gave the US a foothold near China. It offered a channel into Afghanistan," said Dr Jordan Peterson. Prof Christine Fair spent 15 years in Pakistan. She says, "Pakistan's military establishment has mastered the art of wooing large swathes of the US policy ecosystem." The Pakistanis "are quick to spot 'potential' in junior US officials and think-tank analysts - and invest in them early for future 'mining'." In contrast, "India's status conscious officialdom was often 'disdainful' of visiting junior analysts, congressional delegations," who were "welcomed with open arms in Pakistan." The Wire. We, the citizens of India, have to get used to being treated with disdain. While the Indian delegation is happy, "I witnessed a young Indian student being deported from Newark Airport last night - handcuffed, crying, treated like a criminal. He came chasing his dreams," wrote Kunal Jain. If the US is a dream, what is India? "Following India's decision to suspend the Indus water treaty after the deadly Pahalgam terror attack, a Pakistani government report has shown a 13.3% year-on-year shortfall in water drawn from the river and supplied to already water-starved farms in the Punjab province." man.com. Solapur, some 400 km inland from Mumbai, used to receive tap water every other day. "Then in 2017, a 1,320-megawatt coal-fired power plant run by state-controlled NTPC began operations." Since then, in summer, Solapur has to wait for up to a week for tap water. India has 17% of the world population but only 4% of its water resources. Reuters. Indians of Solapur won't be laughing at the farmers of Pakistan's Punjab province. Almost as an afterthought, Canadian Prime Minister invited Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to the G-7 summit in eight days time (TOI). Mr Modi accepted immediately. "In sharp contrast to (Justin) Trudeau's shenanigans on Nijjar's murder," "Carney seems to be putting a lid on Trudeau's dangerous game of promoting anti-India terrorists to capture Sikh votes." ET. "There is no such thing as the Khalistan movement, dream, idea. Definitely not in India. What happens in Brampton, Canada is a problem for Canadians," wrote Shekhar Gupta. Last week, "Pro-Khalistan slogans were raised by several people at the Golden Temple in Amritsar on the 41st anniversary of Operation Blue Star." ET. Perhaps, we should not have mentioned Khalistan. We should have denied involvement in Nijjar murder and offered to help in the investigation instead of reacting with fury (BS). Such shenanigans were completely unnecessary. Don't mention Khalistan in India. Leave it in Canada.

Helping the rich.

 "The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC)...slashed the repo rate by 50 basis points (bps) to 5.5%," and "In a major liquidity boosting move, RBI announced a phased 100 bps cut in the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) - from 4% to 3% - to be implemented in four tranches of 25 bps each starting in September." ET. In view of RBI's actions, "SBI (State Bank of India) estimates this move will release around Rs 2.5 trillion in primary liquidity into the banking system by the end of December." As banks lower lending rates they will lower interest rates on deposits, which have fallen 30-70 bps since February, as well. CNBC. "India's 10-year bond yields have already been in free-fall mode for the last three months. It has dropped from a high of 6.789% to current levels of 6.222%." "This gush of fresh liquidity could reshape flows back into capital markets. No wonder the primary market is already starting to heat up with a series of IPOs lined up to absorb this liquidity." "The time has come for the private sector to lean forward - to invest, to build and to create." MC. The Budget 2025 increased the threshold for income tax, so that people earning up to Rs 1.2 million will have to pay no tax. Mint. "Consumer spending out of new earnings, or through tax cuts, add to the bottom line of the corporate sector, making it more willing to invest in new plants and machinery, and to hire more workers. Thus, a virtuous cycle of spending is created, which creates more jobs, which creates even more spending, and so on." "But even as taxpayers saw a tax cut, key government programs such as the rural employment guarantee program (MGNREGS) or income transfer to farmers (PM-KISAN) saw little or no growth, even as overall spending on social sectors has declined in recent years." Mint. "Even to seasoned investment professionals, India's lofty equity valuations are a head-scratcher." Nothing justifies "paying 33-34 times estimated earnings for Birla's UltraTech Cement Ltd, or Adani's Ambuja Cements Ltd. Not When China's Anhui Conch Cement Co trades below a price-to-earnings multiple of 10 in Hong Kong." "Since domestic mutual funds aren't allowed to invest freely in foreign stocks, their managers must take the deluge of cash coming their way (nearly $50 billion over 12 months), and join the party," wrote Andy Mukherjee. In May, "The National Statistical Office (NSO) released the National Account Statistics (NSA) tables for 2025 which has data up to 2023-24." This showed that the share of outstanding personal loans in private final consumption expenditure (PFCE) has doubled between 2011-12 and 2024-25. HT. "Unsecured loans are not backed by any security and include loans like Credit Cards, Student Loans and Personal Loans." Interest rates are higher because there is no collateral. ICICI Bank. "While only 2% of the population pays income tax, nearly half of the companies that file tax returns (ITRs) pay nothing at all." NDTV. With yields on US 10-year Treasury at 4.494% (CNBC), further reduction in yields on Indian government bonds may reduce the spread (Investopedia) to unattractive levels and result in foreign investors selling out. An ocean of liquidity may not increase consumer spending when they are neck deep in debt. The private sector will not increase capacity unless demand increases. All it will do is allow the rich to borrow cheaply to buy expensive assets as Leena Tiwari who bought two sea-facing luxury duplex apartments in Mumbai for Rs 6.39 billion (HT). The rich will get richer.      

Types of media.

"Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney on Friday (06 June) invited Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to the G7 summit in Alberta later this month, an invitation Modi accepted despite strained ties between the countries." CNN. Carney "was quick to reach out to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, shortly after assuming office in March." "Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese publicly confirmed receiving his invitation in the first week of May. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said she was invited during a phone call with Carney on May 15. Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva also receive an invitation around the same time, as per Brazilian media reports." South Africa was invited but still had not accepted. The Wire. So why were other leaders invited by mid-May and Mr Modi only now? "There was a strong push from the other G7 countries to have India at the table, Vina Nadjibulla, vice president of the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada, said after Mr Modi received his invitation." TOI. This means that Carney's invitation is reluctant, may even be grudging, and so should Mr Modi have accepted it with such alacrity? "As vibrant democracies bound by people-to-people ties, India and Canada will work together with renewed vigor, guided by mutual respect and shared interests," Modi posted on X. TOI. In an unrelated event, On 25 May, "External Affairs Minister (EAM) S Jaishankar spoke with his Canadian counterpart Anita Anand through a telephonic conversation and discussed strengthening the relationship between the two countries." Ms Anand said that it was a "productive discussion". NDTV. Even if Canada is grudging, other countries support India. Or, do they? "Pakistan's elevation to chair the UNSC Taliban Sanctions Committee and vice-chair of the Counter-Terrorism Committee is a diplomatic blow for India." "Pakistan's successful acquisition of major loans from the IMF, World Bank and Asian Development Bank, despite India's vehement objections (The Wire)," and the absence of any condemnation of Pakistan for the dastardly attack at Pahalgam (wikipedia) mean that no country accepts Pakistan's responsibility, while condemning terrorism in general. "In sharp contrast to Trudeau's shenanigans on Nijjar murder, Carney exhibited a measured approach," and "seems to be putting a lid on Trudeau's dangerous game of promoting anti-India terrorists to capture Sikh votes with scant regard for Canada's global interests." ET. Not really. Carney said, "In addition, bilaterally, we have now agreed, importantly, to continued law enforcement dialogue, so there's been some progress on that, that recognizes issues of accountability." Put "bilaterally", "law enforcement" and "accountability" together and it seems that India has agreed to accept the decision of Canada's investigation of Nijjar's killing. As for "Canada's global interests", "Thousands of Indian nationals working in Canada, particularly under the Temporary Worker Program, are losing their legal work status," so as to "encourage migrants to leave voluntarily once their permits expire." ET. Our 'godi media' (lapdog media) (wikipedia) may try to put a gloss on things, but a few channels leak the truth. Should they be labeled the 'ruddy media'?   

More loans for the indebted.

 "The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) cut its key repo rate by a larger-than-expected 50 basis points (bps) yesterday, a third consecutive reduction." "The Monetary Policy (MPC) cut the repo rate to 5.50%. It has now cut rates by 100 bps in 2025". ET. "In a major boost for the banking industry the RBI announced a phased 100 bps cut in the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR)." "The CRR, the share of deposits that banks must hold with the RBI, will be reduced from 4% to 3% in four tranches of 25 bps each, beginning September 2025." ET. "The cut in CRR would release primary liquidity of about Rs 2.5 trillion into the banking system by the end of November," said RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra. The CRR is a percentage of bank deposits maintained in cash form by banks with the RBI. It is compulsory and banks are not allowed to use the money for economic or commercial purposes. It allows the RBI to regulate money supply in the economy depending on the rate of inflation. DBS. The RBI hopes that the lower cost of borrowing will encourage companies to invest in new projects, thereby increasing jobs, and individuals will borrow to increase consumption. People borrow to buy houses and cars. The housing price index reached an all-time high at the end of 2023, dropped in early 2024 and has again reached record levels. A techie wrote on X that his friend is earning Rs 120,000 per month after taxes and deductions. He doesn't splurge and has no car or kids. Apartments start at Rs 25 million in Gurgaon and, if he buys one, he will have to live paycheck to paycheck. No vacations, no emergencies. HT. If such a person is tempted to buy an apartment by lower borrowing rates he will surely reduce other non-essential spending, thus reducing overall consumption. Companies will not invest unless consumption increases. The Forward-Looking Survey on Private Sector Capex Investment Intentions "projects intended private capex almost Rs 4.9 trillion this fiscal year, about a quarter less than last year's plans." Mint. Sale of small, entry-level cars, priced under Rs 500,000 has dropped from over one million a decade ago. "india's penetration of cars, as per a recent Moody's report, is just 44 per 1,000 people, while China's is above 250." Mint. Already, "India's middle class is sinking into a massive debt trap, and the numbers are getting worse." CEO at Marcellus Investments Saurabh Mukherjee said "millions of middle-class Indians have taken on multiple loans they may never be able to repay." BT. Cutting CRR will increase the amount of cash in banks and, since idle cash does not earn profits, banks may be tempted into subprime lending which is "the practice of extending credit to borrowers with low incomes or poor, incomplete, or nonexistent credit histories (Britannica). That will substantially increase the risk of non-performing assets. However, "RBI has acknowledged that government's ownership of public sector banks makes its risk management easier," "because the government behaves like a parent company with deep pockets." TOI. This means using taxpayer money for indiscriminate lending in an effort to prop up the GDP. Assam, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu and Kerala are to hold assembly elections in 2026. wikipedia. People are already deep in debt. Why entice them further? At what cost? 

Speaking of miracles.

"We are the fourth largest economy [overtaking Japan and behind the US, China and Germany] as I speak. We are a four trillion dollar economy as I speak," said NITI Aayog CEO BVR Subrahmanyam. If you speak long enough, it might happen. "The reality, however, is that despite a strong 7.4% growth in Q4 FY25 and annual growth of 6.5%, we still have some way to go before we get that 4th-largest economy tag." The trouble is that "while the services contributed 57% of FY25 GDP, though it employs a little over 30% of the population, agriculture accounted for 16% of GDP, while supporting as much as 46% of the populations." As a result, in terms of per capita GDP, India is at 136 in nominal GDP and 119 in PPP terms, wrote Mythili Bhusnurmath. "GDP growth rate for FY25 has been revised upwards from 6.3% to 6.5%." FY24 growth was revised upwards from 8.2% to 9.2%. "The average turns out to be 7.85% - way above the 6.5% long-term trend." "It is well above the 7% benchmark for a 'miracle economy'," wrote Swaminathan Aiyar. "Industrial production, non-oil imports, vehicle registration and air passenger traffic all points in the same direction: upward. Foreign institutional investors have returned as net buyers of Indian equities." But, "India faces a potential growth puzzle. Despite dramatic improvement in physical and digital infrastructure over the past decade, recent estimates suggest potential growth of only around 6%, well below the 7.5-8% range enacted a decade ago," wrote Prof Prachi Mishra. "India will witness the world's fastest growth in the number of ultra-high-net-worth individuals (UHNWIs), with their population expected to surge by 50% between 2023 and 2028, according to a report by McKenzie & Company and BoF." ET. "Fresh graduates at some of India's top colleges are enduring one of their toughest placement years yet, with intake by prominent recruiters falling by more than half, according to college sources and top company officials." ET. Every country in the world wants to increase manufacturing to create jobs. "The supreme irony is that we live in an era in which manufacturing produces fewer and fewer jobs in factories because of the increasing use of robots." "The most recent figures from the International Federation of Robotics released in November 2024 show that South Korea leads the way with 1,012 robots per 10,000 employees. China is third with 470 robots for every 10,000 workers," wrote Rahul Jacob. "The new 50% US tariffs will hit India's $4.56 bn steel and aluminium exports." Also "Between FY2024 and FY2025, India's steel and aluminium exports to EU fell by 24.4%, dropping from $7.71bn to $5.82bn." The government will need to negotiate hard, wrote Ajay Srivastava. A 50% increase in ultra-rich individuals and sudden jumps in the GDP in the last quarter. Is that a 'miracle economy'? Show us jobs, income and consumption. Miracles are unique. We need steady.

Unstable neighbors.

Following the massacre at Pahalgam on 22 April 2025, during which 25 tourists and one local pony-wallah, all men, were selectively murdered (wikipedia), India launched Operation Sindoor in which the Indian Air Force destroyed at least six Pakistani fighter jets, two high-value surveillance aircraft and one C-130 military transport aircraft. More than 10 armed drones (UCAVs), several cruise missiles and radar sites were also taken out during India's calibrated campaign, which began on May 6 and concluded by May 10." TOI. In Bangladesh, an Islamist government has taken over and the country is gradually reverting back to East Pakistan. "Reportedly, Bangladesh has invited China to develop an old airport near Chicken neck area, India's sensitive border zone." ET. "An alleged Turkish NGO-backed Islamist group has surfaced in Dhaka under the banner 'Sultanat-e-Bangla' and has published a map promoting a so-called 'Greater Bangladesh' that includes Myanmar's Arakan State, Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha, and the entire Northeast region of India." ET. Bangladesh may be dreaming of becoming East Pakistan, but within Pakistan "General Asim Munir is fighting a far more significant battle on a second front in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, where soldiers of the Peshawar-headquartered XI Corps are engaged in a grim war within." "Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) jihadists, streaming South from Afghanistan, have carved out small emirates across Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, coexisting uneasily with both the state and its enemies," wrote Praveen Swami. Elsewhere in Pakistan, "As per the video released by Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA), fourteen Pakistan Army soldiers reportedly died in Balochistan's Kachhi district when their vehicle was hit by an improvised explosive device (IED)." ET. In the Middle East,"Jordan outlawed the Muslim Brotherhood, the country's most vocal opposition group, and confiscated its assets." "Jordan said last week it has arrested 16 Muslim Brotherhood members, saying they were trained and financed in Lebanon and were plotting attacks involving rockets and drones on targets inside the kingdom." "Opponents of the Brotherhood, which is outlawed in most Arab countries, call it a dangerous terrorist group that should be crushed." Reuters. Next door, "A wave of apparent Saudi social media accounts have been promoting and calling for the return of ancient Arabian deities as part of the kingdom's national heritage, amid the country's push to replace its religious identity with a more nationalist one." Middle East Monitor. The two holiest mosques in Islam are located in Mecca and Medina in Saudi Arabia. wikipedia. So, while the real believers in Jordan and Saudi Arabia are becoming more tolerant, the takfiris of Bangladesh and Pakistan seem to be uniting. We seem to be in danger from both east and west. But, both states are unstable and will collapse. The sooner the better.          

Victors don't explain.

"Pakistan launched multiple attacks on early May 10 aiming to bring India to ts knees in 48 hours but it had to fold up the offensives in eight hours and reach out to New Delhi for talks seeking an end to the hostilities, Chief of Defence Staff Gen Anil Chauhan said." "New Delhi has been maintaining that India's fierce counter-attack that day forced Pakistan to plead for ending the hostilities." PTI. India has been engaged in a tug-of-war with Trump who claims his phone call stopped the conflict. "US President Donald Trump has claimed again that he was the one who 'stopped' a possible nuclear conflict between India and Pakistan" by saying that "he was 'gonna do a lot of trade with you, let's stop it'." Mint. "India may have achieved a tactical victory during the recent four-day conflict with Pakistan, but it missed the chance to control the international narrative, said geostrategist Brahma Chellaney." India took two days to counter Trump's claims. To make up, "India is sending seven delegations to 33 countries around the world to brief officials, political leaders, parliamentarians and experts about the country's new approach to tackling cross-border terrorism. The visit to the US is seen as among the most crucial." HT. Victors do not need to explain. "The Pakistani forces orchestrated a multi-wave assault, directing drones and missiles towards crucial military installations," but "India's sophisticated S-400 defence network proved its worth" "With its exceptional detection range of 600 kilometers and engagement capability extending to 400 km, it stands as one of the most advanced air defence systems." TOI. S-400 is Russian. India also used BrahMos missiles successfully. "BrahMos is a long-range supersonic cruise missile jointly developed by India Russia." "It can reach speeds close to Mach 3 and strike targets up to 290 km away with high precision." India Today. But, for some unknown reason, India is kowtowing to the US. US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said, "That's a kind of way to get under the skin of America if you're going to buy your armaments from Russia. I think India is starting to move towards buying military equipment from the United States, which then goes a long way." How dare he sneer at us and why are we kowtowing to the US? "With Canada yet to extend an invitation, PM Modi is unlikely to attend the G7 summit in six years." But, Ukraine, Australia, South Korea, Mexico and South Africa will be there. HT. Even though Mark Carney is the new Prime Minister of Canada, and not Justin Trudeau who was insulted by Mr Modi when he visited India with his family in 2018 (CNN). Not a single country supported India during or after the conflict, but "China, Turkey and Azerbaijan have voiced strong support for Pakistan's sovereignty and territorial integrity, reaffirming their strategic partnerships with Islamabad." FE. And, we are going to ditch Russia which has stood by us since Independence. It's not just about narrative, it's about having friends with common interests and mutual security. Will the US guarantee that? Instead the government has banned 16 Pakistani channels inside India (News on Air) to brainwash Indians. Pakistan has friends and is seen as the 'victim'. We are explaining. 

Will the buffer buffer?

Following Covid, "the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has quietly outshone its counterparts with what some are calling a masterclass in monetary management. While peers like the US Federal Reserve and Bank of England nursed losses, the RBI closed FY 2024-25 with an 8.2% growth in assets and a net income surplus of $31.5 billion." "The RBI's $894.3 billion balance sheet came with a standout feature: a robust risk buffer of $53.6 billion, equating to 6% of its assets." msn.com. "The balance sheet of the RBI increased to Rs 76.25 trillion, aided by nearly 33% gains in foreign exchange transactions, as of March 2025, leading to a bumper Rs 2.7 trillion dividend to the central government." "Increase on assets side was due to rise in gold, domestic investments and foreign investments by 52.09%, 14.32% and 1.70% respectively." Mint. The RBI profits from seigniorage, which is the difference in the face value and the cost of printing a note. It costs Rs 2,290 to print 1,000 notes of Rs 500 (TOI), which means each note costs Rs 2.29 to print. So, the RBI makes a profit of Rs 497.71 on each note. The RBI earns from interest lending to commercial banks at market rates and from currency volatility by buying dollars when the rupee is stronger and selling when it is weaker. The RBI is to buy Rs 1.25 trillion worth of government bonds from the market. CNBC. The reason for purchasing assets is the "desire to lower interest rates on risk-free assets (such as government bonds) across different terms to maturity of those assets - that is, across the yield curve." rba.gov.au. This is to lower borrowing costs. The RBI held a total of 879.58 metric tonnes of gold till 31 March 2025, adding 57.48 metric tonnes during the financial year. TOI. The gold reserves are valued at Rs 4.31625 trillion. RBI's foreign exchange reserves rose by $6.99 billion to $692.72 billion in the week ended 23 May. Foreign currency assets by $4.52 billion. msn.com. "The RBI is reviewing its 'liberalised remittance scheme', which saw outflows of around $30 billion in FY25, as it looks to rationalise the facility and promote the rupee as an international currency." ET. It has been diversifying its foreign exchange assets across various currencies to protect against "weaponisation of reserves" or sanctions, in other words. ET. A 3.5% tax on remittances to India by non-resident Indians in the US will lower the amount of dollars coming into India. India received $33 billion remittances from the US in 2023-24. Also, elimination of jobs in tech companies due to AI will force many Indians on H1B visas to return home (FE), which will also cut remittances into India. It is wise to maintain a $53.6 billion risk buffer but will that be enough if the price of gold drops or if there is a sell off in Indian government bonds as the RBI lowers rates further (ET) while the Fed keeps its Funds rate steady at 4.25% to 4.5% (CNBC)? Will the buffer suffice? Will it buffer us?   

Cost of righteousness.

"In rural Patna and Nalanda, there has been a curious correlation between the liquor ban - enacted almost a decade ago (April 5, 2016) - and lightning deaths, with such fatalities almost quadrupling during some years," probably because "people have been cutting down tall, water-and-sap-filled palm trees, as they can no longer be used in the traditional toddy business." TOI. Mr Nitish Kumar became Chief Minster of Bihar for the fifth time in 2015, presumed to be because of support by women, by promising to ban alcohol. India Today. In 2024, 304 people died of lightning strikes, 400 in 2022 and 459 in 2020, probably an all-time high. TOI. So, instead of some men dying of alcohol-related causes, teetotalers, including children, are being killed by lightning. "Concerned over increasing instances of dog bits in the Capital, the Delhi high court has directed the city government to formulate a policy for the 'rehabilitation of community dogs at an institutional level' so that they can be gradually removed from the streets." Apparently, the Animal Birth Control (ABC) Rules, 2023, "prohibit relocation of community dogs except temporarily for sterilisation and vaccination. Once treated, dogs must be returned to their original locality and a detailed register needs to be maintained for each dog." HT. Many countries euthanize stray dogs when shelters get full. In the US, 2.7 million healthy and adoptable animals were euthanized in 2012-13. wikipedia. "There are approximately 62 million stray dogs and 9.1 million street cats in India," which can cause rabies and damage to property. The solution is to adopt strays, wrote Raj Kantak. One big reason for so many stray dogs is that people throw out their pets when they cannot manage them. "India is endemic for rabies, and accounts for 36% of the world's rabies deaths." Though the true number is unknown, it probably causes 18,000-20,000 deaths per year. "About 30-60% of reported rabies cases and deaths in India occur in children under the age of 15 years as bites that occur in children often go unrecognized and unreported." WHO. Clearly the ABC Rules of sterilisation and vaccination is not working in India. But, euthanasia is not the answer, wrote Ambika Shukla. When ABC Rules were introduced in Chennai and Jaipur in 1996, rabies deaths fell from 120 to 5 in Chennai and to zero in Jaipur in four years. "In 2024, India recorded just 54 human rabies deaths - 96% less than before ABC - per govt's April 1 answer to a parliamentary question." Since, rabies is entirely preventable, even one death is unacceptable. The cost of rabies vaccine for dogs is Rs 350 per dose HUFT. The total cost of vaccinating 62 million dogs will be Rs 21.70 billion every year. Sterilizing will cost even more. It is grossly unreasonable to use our tax money for ABC Rules just because some so-called animal lovers say so. In any event, vaccinating and sterilizing will not stop bites and killing of people by stray dogs (wikipedia). Let's protect palm trees and euthanize stray dogs. Or else, dog lovers should adopt them.  

7.4% growth on GST and Kumbh Mela.

According to a report by the State Bank of India (SBI), India's "GDP grew by 7.4% in Q4 FY25, surprising observers with a performance driven by a 12.7% increase in net indirect taxes. This spike in tax revenue played a significant role in boosting overall economic activity during the quarter." GST collections came in at Rs 1.96 trillion in January, at Rs 1.84 trillion in February and at Rs 1.96 trillion again in March. ET. "The economy in 2024-25 hit a four-year low of 6.5%, slowing down from the 9.2% growth recorded in FY24." Growth in the fourth quarter, ending 31 March, beat estimates after jumping to 7.4%. ET. "India's Chief Economic Advisor (CEA) V Anantha Nageswaran has cautiously acknowledged the potential contribution of the Maha Kumbh Mela (wikipedia) to the country's fourth quarter consumption in FY25," as reports came in that the Mela "facilitated an eye-watering Rs 2.8 trillion in economic activity, turning the world's largest gathering into an economic juggernaut." After a report by Dun & Bradstreet estimated the total economic output "includes Rs 900 billion in direct spending, Rs 800 billion in indirect economic activity, and a further Rs 1.1 trillion in induced impacts, driven largely by increased local consumption and economic circulation among vendors, workers and service providers." Rs 2.3 trillion came from transportation, food, tourism and accommodation. The rest Rs 500 billion was from capital expenditure to build the infrastructure. The Kumbh Mela is celebrated four times over 12 years, that is every three years. prayagraj.nic.in. This is a one-off event and the Rs 2.8 trillion boost cannot be attributed to government policies or traditional economic sectors such as manufacturing, services or agriculture. "India has moved past another important milestone by overtaking Japan to become the world's fourth largest economy, with a GDP of over $4 trillion." However, "India lags behind in research and development," and "India's rise has also been marked by jobless growth." "The growth is very iniquitous, with 1% of the country's population holding more than 40% of its wealth, while the bottom 50% own just 3%." DH. "Since 2004-2005, the overall employment rate in India fell from 42% to 35% in 2017-2018 before rising again to 41%." "India was growing at 7.8% per annum from 2003 to 2015," but "from 2014 to 2024, the growth rate fell to 5.8% per annum." "About 28 million unemployed educated youth are looking for decent jobs, and about 100 million educated youth (mostly women) are not actively looking for employment," wrote Prof Santosh Mehrotra. "As compared to 1990, India's economy is now 11.5 times bigger, while the population is only 1.6 times larger. That means that the per person or the per capita income has grown substantially from about $360 in 1990 to $2,700 in 2025." To become an advanced economy with a per capita income of $14,000 by 2047, India has to grow at 7.8% in dollar terms for the next 20 years, wrote Ajit Ranade. That means more exports, more manufacturing and more jobs. Let's not depend on the Kumbh Mela. No one got any nectar.         

Women responsible.

"BSF (Border Security Force, wikipedia) dismantled 118 Pakistani forward posts and surveillance networks along the Jammu frontier that will take years to be repaired, Union Home Minister Amit Shah said.., lauding the force for its tenacious response to Islamabad's aggression." TOI. "After just four days of calibrated military action, it is objectively conclusive: India achieved a massive victory. Operation Sindoor met and exceeded its strategic aims - destroying terrorist infrastructure, demonstrating military superiority, restoring deterrence and unveiling a new national security doctrine," wrote John Spencer. "PM Narendra Modi said... Pakistan had to 'beg for a ceasefire' during Operation Sindoor, in yet another assertion by India that contradicts Donald Trump's claim that the US President had brokered peace between the two neighbors." TOI. Having pulverised Pakistan we are having to defend our victory. Why can't the world accept our word quietly? "US President Donald Trump...repeated his assertion that he prevented a war between India and Pakistan, stating that his intervention helped avoid a nuclear disaster." "India, however, has rejected the US president's account." ET. Even so, "The Trump administration has doubled down on its claim" and  "informed a court in New York that a 'fragile ceasefire' was only achieved between India and Pakistan after President Donald Trump 'interceded' by offering both countries access to trade with the United States in order to prevent a large-scale conflict." ET. Oh, please! India "missed the chance to control the international narrative, said geostrategist Brahma Chellaney...The military operation, launched in response to a terror attack in Pahalgam, dealt a heavy blow to Pakistan's air defence infrastructure without leading to a full-scale war. However, India's slow diplomatic response weakened its strategic position globally." ET. Weak globally maybe, but information within India is totally controlled. "The Government of India...banned 16 Pakistani YouTube channels in India, including Dawn News, Samaa TV, GNN and Geo News for...false and misleading narratives and misinformation against India, its Army and security agencies." ET. So, Indians are not intelligent enough to see through Pakistani propaganda and not patriotic to its country's security forces. They need to be brainwashed. "Trump's change of heart during Operation Sindoor...was connected to a recent deal between Pakistan's Crypto Council and World Liberty Financial (WLF), a cryptocurrency venture in which the President's family has a stake." ET. Bribing Trump from the $1 billion lifeline from the International Monetary Fund needed to buy food for its people. TOI. Unscrupulous fiends. However, all this confusion would not have arisen if the women of the men killed in Pahalgam had fought back, a spokesperson for the BJP said, citing the example of the Rani of Jhansi who fought against the Muslims. "Never mind that Rani of Jhansi actually did not fight against the Muslims, but alongside Muslims, against the British," wrote Badri Raina. Why quibble about minor details? No wonder Indians need to be brainwashed. Won't accept fairy tales.   

Giving money away is good.

The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) monthly bulletin released in May said that "The global growth continues to face headwinds with persistent trade frictions, heightened policy uncertainty, and weak consumer sentiment weighing on the outlook. Despite this, the Indian economy is exhibiting resilience." MC. "India is better equipped than many emerging markets to withstand the effects of US tariffs and global trade disruptions, thanks to strong domestic growth drivers and a low reliance on goods exports, a Moody's Ratings report highlighted." ET. India's merchandise exports in FY 2024-25 were $437.42, imports were $720.24 billion, and so the merchandise trade deficit in FY 2024-25 was $282.83 billion. pib.gov.in. "India recorded a trade deficit of $99.2 billion with China in 2024/25 fiscal year that ended in March,..driven by a surge in  imports of electronics goods and consumer durables. Reuters. We are giving our money away to other nations but, according to Moody's, that makes India "better equipped". It is like saying a man who is starving is healthier because his cholesterol is low. There was considerable criticism in 2018 when the base year for calculating GDP was changed to 2011-12 from 2004-05 as it cut the rate of growth of GDP during the previous Congress-led UPA government to 6.7% from over 7% and increased the growth rate under the present government to 7.4%, wrote Shwweta Punj. Net foreign direct investment (FDI) fell by 96% last year. Because of "A 16% rise in repatriation and disinvestment by foreign investors in existing companies to $51.5 billion and a 75% jump in outward FDI by Indian companies to $29 billion." "Foreign investors in India companies were showing a marked preference for ploughing back their gains from here to reinvest in other markets elsewhere." The Print. "The Indian government is taking multiple steps to maintain strong FDI inflows, including combing through regulations at both the central and state levels to make it easier for companies to invest, tailoring investment packages and making pitches to global corporations." ET. One source of foreign exchange is tourism which is unaffected by tariffs. In 2023, India received 18.89 international tourists but a lot of them were non-resident Indians (NRI), and from Bangladesh, coming for medical treatment. "In 2024, 9.66 million foreign tourists (excluding NRIs) arrived, provisional data from the government shows," wrote Varuni Kohli. Vietnam received 17.5 million international tourists in 2024 and aims to attract 23 million in 2025. TOI. Problem is that tourists can't be assured of returning home because a heavy shower causes severe traffic jams and cancellation of flights. Earlier this month, Gurgaon, Delhi Airport and Minto Road were inundated. Mint. Better drainage would help citizens and attract tourists. Or else, be happy with deficits. Better than tariffs.