Just do your duty.

"US President Donald Trump has issued a new executive order that slaps import tariffs on a long list of American trading partners. The decision...is set to go into effect on 7 August and covers a wide range of goods from 69 countries." ET. On 27 July, "The US struck a framework trade agreement with the European Union,.. imposing a 15% import tariff on most EU goods - half the threatened rate - and averting a bigger trade war between the two allies that account for almost a third of global trade." Reuters. "France denounced the trade agreement between the EU and the US as a 'submission'...though other EU states largely backed a deal they acknowledged was lopsided but which averts an economically damaging war with Washington." ET. "The country's (France's) deficit for 2024, which was initially forecast to be 4.4%, was later revised upwards to 6.1%. This revision raised serious questions not only about the state of France's public finances but also about how it was possible that the worsening budgetary situation was able to fly under the radar for so long." blogs.lse.ac.uk. "Industrial production in France fell unexpectedly again in January, declining by 0.6% for the industry as a whole, following a downwardly revised fall of 0.5% in December. The decline was 0.7% for manufacturing, after a drop of 0.1% in December. ING. If France had put its own house in order, instead of fudging its figures, there would be no need for it to be so indignant. Trump "slapped a 50% tariff on most Brazilian goods to fight what he has called a 'witch hunt' against former President Jair Bolsonaro, but softened the blow by excluding sectors such as aircraft, energy and orange juice from heavier levies." Reuters. "There is perhaps no world leader defying Trump as strongly as Lula." "President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva of Brazil is outraged. President Donald Trump is trying to push around his nation of 200 million, dangling 50% tariffs as a threat, Lula said in an interview. And yet, he added, the US President is ignoring his government's offers to talk." ET. "The US economy surged between April and June," as its "GDP increased at an annual rate of 3% in the second quarter, the Commerce Department said." "This number represents a turnaround from the first three months of 2025, when GDP fell 0.5%." CBS. "US inflation increased in June," as "Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose 0.3% last month," and "In the 12 months through June, the PCE price index advanced 2.6% after increasing 2.4% in May." ET. On 30 July, the US Federal Reserve "said it would maintain the funds rate at its current range of 4.25% to 4.5%. The last time the central bank cut its interest rates was in December 2024." CBS. This is even after Trump called Fed Chair Jerome Powell a "stubborn moron" and said he is "too stupid" for not cutting interest rates. Opindia. The Fed is doing its duty. Governments should do the same. Trump is temporary. Duty is permanent.   

Not dead as yet.

"Donald Trump said that India will pay a penalty over and above the decided 25% for its trade with Russia despite the ongoing Ukraine war." HT. "I don't care what India does with Russia. They can take their dead economies down together, for all I care. We have done very little business with India, their tariffs are too high, among the highest in the world," he said. In response, Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal said in Parliament that "the Indian economy will soon become the third largest in the world in terms of GDP size and is currently the world's fastest growing major economy." TOI. The biggest puzzle is that our GDP is driven by private consumption when the vast majority of our people are too poor to consume. A report by the Ministry of Finance "highlighted that the share of private consumption in nominal GDP increased from 60.2% in FY24 to 61.4% in FY25. This marks the second highest level in the last 20 years." ET. While the number of income tax returns has "more than doubled, from 33.5 million in 2013-14 to 75.4 million in 2023-24," the number of "individuals filing zero-income tax returns has also more than doubled from 16.9 million to 47.3 million over the same period." Which means that the actual number of taxpayers has increased from 16.6 million to 28.2 million. NDTV. The overwhelming majority of Indians earn too little. This is supported by the fact that Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced that 813.5 million people will be provided free food grains for five years from 1 January 2024. pib.gov.in. Citing International Labour Organisation (ILO) data Mr Modi said that 950 million, or "64% of India's population received at least one social security benefit." TOI. Does it mean that 64% of our consumption, comprising about 40% of our GDP, is just government handouts? Is it productive? Should it even be counted? In the same speech, Mr Goyal also said that "the government stands firm in protecting the interests of Indian farmers, workers and entrepreneurs." ET. India's Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation fell to 2.10% year-on-year in June 2025 with food prices contracting by -1.06%. pib.gov.in. Vegetable prices have fallen by 19% and pulses by 12%, partly due to good rainfall but also because the government imported 7.3 million tonnes of pulses last year at prices lower than the Minimum Support Price (MSP) which is set by the government to guarantee (Vikaspedia) a minimum income for farmers. This resulted in lower farmgate prices while input costs have been rising relentlessly, reducing income of farmers and "mass distress is likely to intensify now", wrote Prof Himanshu. In 2023, Union Home Minister Amit Shah said that "about 65% of the people in India are engaged in agriculture and allied activities directly and about 55% of the workforce is engaged in agriculture and allied activities." pib.giv.in. Farmers thus constitute a gigantic vote bank (wikipedia) and, after fleecing them to force inflation down, to please urban voters, the government doles out Rs 2,000 every four months, for a total of Rs 6,000 annually, to every eligible farming family. DD News. At today's prices this is not even chump change. When the government functions solely to win elections the economy becomes sick. Not dead as yet. Gasping may be.

Can anyone do a Soros?

"US President Donald Trump yesterday announced that 'friend' India will be paying a 25% tariff from August 1. He also noted that New Delhi will have to pay additional penalty due to its oil and military purchase from Russia in the face of the ongoing war in Ukraine." HT. "If this tariff is sustained, this move may directly affect key sectors such as marine products, pharmaceuticals, textiles, leather and automobiles," said Agneshwar Sen and "may shave off 20 basis points from India's GDP growth if the tariff rate stays at that level," according to Garima Kapoor. TOI. "India's faltering equities market faces the risk of more losses," as "foreign investors have accelerated their withdrawals, turning attention to cheaper or more attractive markets like Hong Kong and South Korea. The value of India's stock market is down $248 billion since reaching a record on July 2." ET. The Indian rupee (INR) fell to 87.663 against the US dollar (USD) yesterday. It had fallen to 87.789 on 7 February but hardened to 84.220 on 5 May. exchangerates.org.uk. "India's forex reserves dipped by $3.06 bn to $696.67 billion for the week ending 11 July, data by Reserve Bank of India (RBI) showed." ET. Forex reserves "rose to $702.8 billion as of June 27," and "At the same time, RBI's short-dollar position in the forward market, which had risen to $88.7 billion in February, declined to $65.2 billion in May. Substantial short positions in the forward dollar book offset some of the cushion offered by headline FX reserves, since they imply future commitments that could drain the reserves." Reuters. "According to recent data, the RBI's gold holdings remain stable at 880 metric tonnes from end-March through end-May this year." That may be because, "Price projections from Citi, a Fitch Research division, Motilal Oswal Securities and ICICI Bank suggest a decline from $3,445 per troy ounce." TOI. "From dismantling its protectionist 'inspector raj,' to cutting duties on Tesla Inc cars, and treating Amazon.com Inc and Walmart Inc on a par with domestic retailers, India is under pressure on many fronts on its trade talks with the US." But India must not compromise on ethanol produced from maize (corn), to broken rice, rotten potatoes, sugarcane and molasses, for mixing with automobile fuel because that would hurt income for our farmers, wrote Andy Mukherjee. "Next month's talks would probably be the 50th round of negotiations with the US," because the US is focusing on a single overall tariff figure. "For Britain it was 10%, the EU and Japan settled at 15%, Indonesia at 19% and Vietnam was about 20%-plus. So, this is the 'Trump deal' within the deal. It's unprecedented and, until now, not even properly documented as a model," wrote Pranab Dhal Samanta. "The economy has the look and feel of 'steady as she goes' as far as FY26 is concerned, the Finance Ministry's Monthly Economic Review for June said, even though it pointed out downside risks." ET. In September 1992, George Soros made a profit of $1 billion by short selling the pound forcing the UK government to withdraw the sterling from the European Exchange Rate Mechanism. wikipedia. Can the Indian rupee also be shorted, even though it is not fully convertible? Can anyone do a Soros on the rupee? Despite the RBI.       

Digital Rozgar Mela.

 On 12 July, "Prime Minister Narendra Modi distributed over 51,000 appointment letters to newly appointed youth in various government departments and organisations via video conferencing at the 16th edition of Rozgar Mela (employment fair)." ET. In April, PM Modi "distributed 51,236 appointment letters to newly-recruited candidates in central government departments and organisations as part of the 15th Rozgar Mela. The event was held virtually and coordinated across 47 locations nationwide." NDTV. Why is this such an enormous publicity opportunity for Mr Modi? Because, in September 2024, "In Haryana, over 166,000 candidates, including more than 6,000 postgraduates and nearly 40,000 graduates, have applied for the position of sweeper in government departments, boards, corporations, and civic bodies, offering a salary of Rs 15,000 (about $175) per month. ET. The reason is that these positions are a kind of gift to keep people happy. Performance and efficiency are optional. For example, in 2022, three municipal corporations in the capital city Delhi had a total of 60,000 sanitation workers. TIE. And yet, Delhi is extremely dirty with rubbish strewn everywhere and cows and feral dogs rummaging for food in the rubbish tips. "The youth, or those between the ages of 15 and 29 years, make up 27% of the total population, thus representing a vast potential workforce. Yet, this is the very segment facing an acute crisis of high unemployment, low employability and widespread under-utilization." "According to the India Employment Report 2024, the youth make up 83% of the total unemployed." At the same time, "The coexistence of high unemployment among educated job-seekers and an acute shortage of skilled candidates expressed by industry is a severe indictment of the country's higher education system," wrote Ajit Ranade. "Our most telling finding was that for so many of our respondents, the aspiration was a government job, a coveted position of stability and security," reported a study by Prof Mathangi Krishnamurthy & Ms Rama Bijapurkar. "They are eschewing the full depth and breadth of possibilities that new India offers for them to aspire to, replacing it with the self-inflicted myopia of bonsai dreams and perfectly stable lives." This is not as myopic as the authors think because, "India's largest IT exporter and private-sector employer, Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), has decided to lay off around 2% of its workforce, roughly 12,000 employees," because of "a skill mismatch and lack of deployment feasibility for certain roles." ET. With such high rates of unemployment, losing jobs must be devastating. No wonder, a study by MediBuddy showed that "70% of employees are carrying at least one lifestyle-related health risk." Most alarming, "Non-communicable diseases now account for 63% of all deaths in India, with heart disease, diabetes and stroke impacting the workforce at median ages of 32, 34 and 36 respectively." ET. Since performance is not a necessity for government jobs, "stability and security" are assured. That, in India, is more valued and coveted than a high paying position in the private sector with the threat of sudden termination. Rozgar Mela: how to milk unemployed misery for free publicity. Taxpayer pays.   

Don't bet on it.

"The BJP...hailed Prime Minister Narendra Modi's tenure as 'golden chapters of development'," "after Modi overtook Indira Gandhi to become the second-longest serving prime minister of India in consecutive terms after he completed 4,078 days in office on Friday (25 July). Gandhi was in office in an unbroken stint for 4,077 days." DH. Ms Indira Gandhi was prime minister from 24 January 1966 to 24 March 1977 and then again from 14 January 1980 to 31 October 1984. wikipedia. Presumably, the BJP is comparing with her first term in office. However, "Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) chief Mohan Bhagwat's remark on stepping aside at the age of 75 has prompted opposition politicians to question its implications for PM Modi, who, like Bhagwat, turns 75 this September." HT. It seems unlikely that Mr Modi will want to retire as he is almost never in his office and the lists of his international and domestic tourism (PM India.gov) suggest he must be hugely enjoying himself. Mr Bhagwat has been a friend and supporter of Mr Modi for decades and Mr Modi has the support of the BJP. The Hindu. Indeed, the rank and file of the BJP would probably want Mr Modi to stay because they see him as an election winner, although the BJP won only 240 seats in the 2024 general election, well short of the 272 required (ECI) to form a government on its own. "Remember how they pasted his picture on Covid-19 vaccine certifications? And on school satchels? Not to speak of every page of every news outlet, although positioning his head just a millimeter above that of pretenders who draw breath from the slightest tilt of his eyebrow. And now the time comes when these mischievous satraps have him gracing even such quotidian pieces of authorisation as railway booking tickets," wrote Badri Raina. On the other hand, the other leaders in the BJP would surely want him to step down so that one of them could grab the seat of prime minister till the next general election in 2029. If Mr Bhagwat keeps his word and steps down on the exact date, the taunts from the opposition and subtle pressure from the other leaders, before they themselves hit the sell-by date, may become intense. Mr Modi himself came through the ranks of the RSS and won elections because of its support, wrote Christophe Jaffrelot, so will he dishonor its tradition? "The Vedas, from whence we are instructed, Hindutva derives, designate 75 as the marker for the jeev atma (the fleshly human) to turn towards the forest in order to renounce this world and begin the quest for moksha (salvation)." So will Mr Modi defy Vedic principles and "stick to his worldly project of finishing the political job of making Bharat great again via her make-over into a theocracy? asked Badri Raina. Will Mr Bhagwat step down in September or will he be pressured to stay? Will Mr Modi go if Mr Bhagwat does? Best not to bet on it. Odds of losing will be 99 to 1.     

Yacht parties better than capex.

"Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharama...said India's private sector appears to be holding on to 'passive investible funds' instead of deploying them towards new capacity creation, even as government capital expenditure (capex) continues to be the main driver of economic growth." CNBC. The government spends taxpayer money as it pleases without being held to account by a 'Godi (lapdog) media' (wikipedia) but companies have to account to shareholders and regulators. "Public Sector Banks (PSBs) in India have written off loans amounting to more than Rs 12 trillion between financial years 2015-16 and 2024-25, the finance ministry informed the Rajya Sabha on July 22." Write offs in the last five fiscal years (FY21 to FY25) exceeded Rs 5.82 trillion. The Wire. To create new capacity needs hard work, but "India's Gen Z billionaires are bored with business." "Today among the scions of some of the most affluent families of India, someone is an artist, someone wants to be a sportsman, someone wants to run a small restaurant." "It's the modern trend, people want to do their own thing," said Dilip Piramal, 75-year-old Chairman of VIP Industries. DH. "There was a time when being born into a business family meant inheriting responsibility before wealth." But, "Modern scions believe in passive income, aggressive networking and yacht parties," Harsh Goenka, Chairman RPG Enterprises. There are many reasons why companies are reluctant to invest. UBS Securities India said, "The lack of clarity on international trade is a significant factor hindering long-term capital expenditure by Indian companies." ET. The US and the European Union (EU) reached "a broad trade agreement yesterday that sets 15% tariffs on most European imports." By concluding the deal before 1 August the EU averted 30% tariffs. Mint. But, "As the window of opportunity for India to seal a trade deal with the US closes on Aug 1 -when tariffs are set to increase to 26% - New Delhi appears to be unfazed." CNBC. A report by Team lease "revealed that setting up and operating a standalone solar plant in India entails an astonishing  2,735 compliance obligations - a level of red tape that makes one wonder how India manages to grow at all. Remember, solar energy is a high-priority area for which the govt offers several incentives and subsidies," wrote Swaminathan Aiyar. To invest, businesses need workers. "Only 42.6% of Indian graduates were found employable last year, marking a decline from 44.3% in 2023, reveals a recent report by Mercer-Mettl, which attributes the drop primarily to a lack of non-technical skills." The Print. And, "L&T chairman says laborers are unwilling to work or relocate for jobs due to the availability of welfare schemes and a preference for comfort." HT. "Prime Minister Narendra Modi...said over 950 million Indians were now covered under at least one social security scheme." TOI. Mr Mohandas Pai "slammed tax authorities and the central and state governments for 'oppressing' taxpayers and hounding them with 'tax terrorism'." FE. Red tape, tax terrorism, unemployable graduates, unavailable labor. Why invest? Yacht parties better. Over to FM.

They are unfazed.

"As the window of opportunity to seal a trade deal with the US closes on Aug 1 - when tariffs are set to increase to 26% - New Delhi appears to be unfazed by the looming deadline." CNBC. "US total goods trade with India were an estimated $129.2 billion in 2024." India imported $41.8 billion worth of goods from the US while we exported $87.4 billion to the US, giving us a positive trade balance of $45.7 billion in 2024. ustr.gov. "In 2024, India was the United States' 10th largest trading partner by country (2.4% of US trade), and the US was India's largest goods trade partner (10.8% of India's trade)." "The US trade deficit with India was -$45.6 billion for goods and -$485 million for services in 2024." congress.gov. Perhaps, we should be a little more fazed about a trade deal with the US. "India's largest export, it is often said, is middle management talent to large global corporations." "One does not need to name the many poster boys and girls of this phenomenon. They are well known and well celebrated in India," wrote Rama Bijapurkar. Like all exports, "Overseas Indians sent home a record $129.4 billion in 2024 with the highest ever inflows of $36 billion in the December quarter alone." ET. Why do Indians flee from India? On 12 June 2025, Air India Flight 171 from Ahmedabad in Gujarat to Gatwick Airport in London crashed 32 seconds after takeoff killing 229 passengers and all 12 crew members. One passenger survived. wikipedia. It appears that although Air India is now run by the Tata group, which owns 74.9% with Singapore Airlines owning the other 25.1% (wikipedia),  maintenance is still in the hands of the government owned Air India Engineering Services Ltd (AIESL) whose workers are now on strike (The Hindu). "A number of applicants under India's Electronics Manufacturing Scheme (ECMS) have flagged concerns over meeting their first year production targets due to ongoing shortages of rare earth minerals." "The rare earth scarcity stems from export restrictions imposed by China, which controls more than 90% of global rare earth processing." TOI. Ironically, "India's rare earth exports predated Independence, when radioactive material was accidentally discovered in the beach sands in Kerala." Unfortunately, Indian Rare Earth Ltd (IREL) is an ignored government company, headquartered in a run down building in Mumbai, wrote T Surender. In July, the government told the Rajya Sabha that "nearly one out of every three faculty positions was lying vacant across all 20 AIIMS (All India Institute of Medical Sciences) including the Delhi AIIMS. TOI. AIIMS Delhi was the first, established by the Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru in 1956. wikipedia. "India's premier institutions - from IIMs (Indian Institute of Management)  to central universities -are being run by bureaucrats instead of academics, a trend that is discouraging India's top talent from returning home, says policy analyst and author Sanjaya Baru." BT. There is only one reason why Indians are so keen to leave India, never to return -- it is the government. They are unfazed. About India. And Indians. 

Surplus or deficit?

"India and the United Kingdom yesterday signed a Free Trade Agreement (FTA)," which secures continued access for Indian nationals under the UK's business mobility routes, such as short-term business visitors, intra-corporate transferees (ICT), contractual service suppliers and independent professionals." HT. The present leader of the Conservative Party Kemi Badenoch (BBC), who was the UK International Trade Secretary in Prime Minister Rishi Sunak's government (ukibc.com) said, "As business secretary, even as I was trying to do things to limit immigration, we had an India FTA where they kept trying to bring in migration and I said no." TOI. So, we just waited them out. Of course, ease of access depends on whether British companies have any need for such services or whether they can get cheaper deals elsewhere. "UK and India's bilateral trade is set to get a more than $34 billion annual boost over the long term," as "92% of goods exported by UK to India will see tariffs removed entirely or reduced, while as much as 99% of Indian goods shipped to Britain will be exempt from tariffs." CNBC. 99% vs 92% sounds like an immense victory, but we should remember that we are getting 99% of the total UK population of about 70 million while the UK is getting 92% of India's population, the largest in the world, at about 1,465 million. Worldometer. The UK imports just $1.9 billion worth of India's labor-intensive goods and services and "The new trade pact promises zero or near-zero tariffs on textiles, leather and footwear, engineering goods, chemicals and pharmaceuticals - relief govt says will make Indian exports far more competitive." TOI. That is good news but we still have to compete with other countries. China is an expert at dumping goods at very cheap prices because it has massive excess production capacity, the Chinese government supports industries with subsidies and other help (The Print) and a fall in exports to the US because, as of May 2025, "the US's average tariff on Chinese goods stands at 51.1%" (China Briefing). While India has failed to reach a trade deal with the US on tariffs (CNBC), the US has signed trade deals with other countries, as it did with the Philippines and Indonesia recently (Reuters). Besides, after Brexit, Britain is committed to negotiate trade deals with as many countries as it can (BBC) and they could ask for the same sort of deal that has been agreed with India. India has already signed an Economic Cooperation and Trade Agreement (ECTA) under which "Over 85% of Australian goods exports by value to India are now tariff free, rising to 90% by 1 January 2026, and high tariffs have been reduced on some further agricultural products. In addition, 90% of imports from India are now tariff free, rising to 100% by 1 January 2026." dfat.gov.au. Following the agreement, bilateral merchandise trade has surged from $12.2 billion in 2020-21 to more than double at $26 billion in 2022-23. At the same time, the trade deficit with Australia jumped from $8.5 billion in 2020-21 to $12 billion in 2022-23. The deficit fell to $8.2 billion in 2023-24 because total trade fell to $24 billion. TNIE. The hug is done (Newsday). Photo-op over. Time to move on. What about us?

'Anti-bubble' seems to be working.

"The latest report on US inflation was the clearest sign yet that tariffs are starting to boost costs of commonly imported goods, while a decline in car prices kept overall inflation in check." ET. "US consumer inflation accelerated in line with analyst expectations last month," as "The consumer price index (CPI) was up 2.7% from a year ago in June," rising from 2.4% in May as energy costs, household and apparel costs rose. ET. "In China, a 5.2% increase in second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) beat expectations," but "they also masked a worsening decline in prices that threatens to drag the world's second-largest economy into a prolonged slowdown." The Wall Street bank Goldman Sachs warned clients that "it now sees a 35% chance of a recession in the next 12 months, up from 20% previously," and "slashed its 2025 GDP forecast to just 1% and bumped up its year-end unemployment outlook by 0.3% to 4.5%." CNN. However, "In May 2025, JP Morgan Research had reduced the probability of a US and global recession occurring from 60% to 40%." "The US GDP growth dropped into negative territory in the first quarter," but "In June 2025, the US economy added 147,000 jobs and the unemployment rate dropped slightly to 4.1%." ET. "The number of Americans filing new applications for jobless benefits unexpectedly fell last week," as "Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 4,000 to a seasonally adjusted 217,000 for the week ended July 19, the Labor Department said." ET. "The US dollar's bubble-like overvaluation may have already popped, but some wonder if an equally vulnerable 'anti-bubble' may just have taken its place." "And if the dollar was in a bubble at the start of the year, then that overvaluation appears far from reversed." But, "All bubbles eventually deflate, even if they don't always pop, and the same may well be true of 'anti-bubbles'. But they can also endure for quite some time." Reuters. Although some people think President Donald Trump's policies are stagflationary, "The US economy's potential growth will approach 4% by 2030, far above the International Monetary Fund's recent estimate of 1.8%. The reason: America is the world leader in 10 of the 12 industries that will define the future, with China leading in only electric vehicles and other green tech," wrote Prof Nouriel Roubini. "The West has struggled to weaken China's grip on 90% of the supply of rare earths, in part because low prices set in China have removed the incentive for investment elsewhere." But, "Under a deal made public last week, the US Department of Defense will guarantee a minimum price for its sole rare earth miner MP Materials, at nearly twice the current market levels." Higher prices will encourage other Western companies to increase production of rare earth magnets. Reuters. Meanwhile, "US customs duty collections surged again in June as President Donald Trump's tariffs gained steam, topping $100 billion for the first time during a fiscal year and helping to produce a surprise $27 billion budget surplus for the month, the Treasury Department reported.' Reuters. Enemies would like Trump's policies to fail. What if they don't?   

Can't accept cannibal cows.

"Indonesia gave up far more than it gained, removing 99% of its tariffs on US goods, agreeing to buy USD 22.7 billion in American products, and weakening important rules that protect its industries, food safety, and digital space, the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) said." So, "India should read cautiously in ongoing trade talks to avoid similar concessions.' TN. "However, despite five rounds of negotiations between India and the US, an interim trade deal remains elusive before August 1." India cannot reduce its restrictions on agriculture, dairy and GM crops, and wants the US to reduce or withdraw 50% tariffs on steel and aluminium and 25% on automobiles. BT. Indians will not accept dairy products from cannibalistic cows. In the US, "The parts of a cow that are not eaten by people are cooked, dried and ground into powder." This is mixed with animal feed. Cows get Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE), commonly known as Mad Cow Disease, from eating feed from sick cows. This can be passed to humans as variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob Disease (vCJD) which is invariably lethal. fda.gov. "India has classified certain American dairy products as non-vegetarian." Milk from cows fed on powdered meat and bones of dead animals, fish meal and animal fat is considered 'non-vegetarian' by Hindus and Jains. Americans refuse to label such dairy products as 'non-vegetarian'. News 18. Most genetically modified (GM) foods contain proteins toxic to insects from Bacillus thuringiensis (BT). "In the US in 2015, 81% of corn acreage contained the Bt trait." wikipedia. Not just Indians, citizens of the European Union (EU) also reject GM foods. 54% of EU citizens consider GM foods as unsafe for them and their children, pests become resistant to the Bt toxins and patents will allow some companies to control food supply. greens-efa.eu. Indeed, these food crops have been dubbed 'Frankenstein Food'. TOI. "In the United States, colorectal cancer (CRC) is the third most diagnosed cancer and the third leading cause of cancer death in both men and women." "Since the mid-1990s, there has been a consistent annual increase of 2% in cases among adults aged 20-39." CRI. Could GM food be partly responsible? After all, toxins to insects may be toxic to humans. "Agriculture plays a vital role in India's economy. 54.6% of the population is engaged in agriculture and allied activities (census 2011) and it contributes 17.4% to the country's Gross Value Added." mospi.gov.in. Since the food crisis in the 1960s, the government of India maintains a buffer stock of wheat and rice which is used to fill shortfalls in harvest. plutusias.com. Importing grains from the US will create a glut, may cause a collapse in prices and harm the livelihood of our farmers. Dairy and certain agriculture products must be ring-fenced. The government has no choice.    

The secret core.

"India's wholesale inflation contracted to 0.13% in June on an annual basis, marking the lowest rate recorded since October 2023, according to government data." It was 0.39% in May. "As inflation eased overall, the primary fall in prices in June was recorded in the food basket." "The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), in its April meeting, cited a continued moderation in price pressures, mainly driven by softer food costs." ET. "India's retail inflation eased to a six-year low of 2.10%, June aided by an easing of food price rises and favorable base effects." "Food inflation, which accounts for nearly half of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) basket, slipped to -1.06% in June from 0.99% in May." "However, core inflation has ticked up," said Upasna Bhardwaj, Chief Economist at Kotak Mahindra Bank. ET. TOI gave a breakdown of prices in different sectors and the difference between rural and urban inflation levels. Low CPI inflation is expected to help the RBI cut its policy rate further.  "However, the deflation in food prices is likely to lead to discussions among policy makers about the prospects for the agriculture sector given the government goal of improving farm income." Mint. "Agricultural income in India is generally exempt from income tax under Section 10(1) of the Income Tax Act." Bajaj Finserve.  But, "Indian farmers are actually net taxed," said economist Dr Ashok Gulati. "You give subsidies on inputs - fertilizer, free power, this and that. But at the drop of a hat, you put export bans. You say - private sector cannot hold stocks." "So there are Essential Commodities Act provisions which are a draconian 1939 Defense of India rule, then 1955." BT. In 2019, Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced a scheme to pay Rs 6,000 (about $68) per year in direct benefit transfer to farmers. NDTV. "Core inflation, which excludes volatile items such as food and energy and is an indicator of domestic demand, was at 4.4%-4.5% in June from 4.17%-4,20% in in the previous month, according to three economists. India's official statistics agency does not publish core inflation data." Reuters. An RBI paper in February 2024 showed that "The difference between headline and core inflation was found to have negative impact on future inflation changes. In other words, when the difference is negative (as is the case now - headline inflation lower than core inflation), headline inflation is predicted to increase in future. Second, over the long term, headline inflation tends to converge with core." Thus, "Core inflation has predictive power," wrote Deepa Vasudevan. Then why is core inflation avoided by the government? "I certainly believe they (RBI) should cut interest rates. Growth needs further impetus," said Union Minister of Commerce and Industry Piyush Goyal. It is "absolutely flawed theory" that high CPI inflation due to high food prices can be controlled with interest rates. ET. So, cut interest rate by ignoring CPI inflation due to high food prices and cut interest rate when CPI inflation is falling because of falling food prices. RBI has only one function, to cut interest rates. No wonder, core inflation, which cuts out volatile food and energy prices (Investopedia), is not published. And farmers are repressed.      

It's only natural.

India's GDP grew at an average of 7.85% in the last two years but, "The World Bank has cut its estimate of India's GDP growth in 2025-26 from 6.7% to 6.3%." The current account deficit is close to zero, CPI inflation fell to 2.1% in June and the fiscal deficit has been cut to 4.45% of GDP. However, Fast Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) and car sales are down. India is doing much better than other emerging economies, still we have to wait and see what effect US tariffs have on India, wrote Swaminathan Aiyar. "India's economy is consumption-driven, with private final consumption expenditure contributing nearly 60% of India's gross domestic product (GDP)." Since the pandemic, government debt has declined from 88% of GDP to 82% by December 2024 and corporate debt has declined from 66% of GDP in 2017 to just over 50% after the pandemic. This simultaneous deleveraging has adversely affected household income, "particularly at a time when household balance sheets increasingly have loans to be paid back," wrote Rajani Sinha & Sarbartho Mukherjee. Without income growth household demand will remain weak. "As many as 303 companies turned debt free in FY25, doubling the cash on their books, in a sign that India Inc remains reluctant to make substantial new investments." FE. India may soon become the world's third largest economy, but Prof Raghuram Rajan "argued that India has failed to create globally recognized product leaders, despite the size of its domestic market and extensive state support for businesses." "Rajan points out that India does not have a single company known worldwide for its products." ET. State protection means that companies do not have to compete and a large domestic market provides huge profits without any effort. To export means having to compete on quality, innovation and price. Why bother? Prof Rajan said that "recent rate cuts are not a 'magic bullet' that will automatically create a wave of private sector investment." "Data from the Ministry of Statistics shows the private sector's share in India's gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) fell to an 11-year low of 32.4% in FY24." BT. As a result of customs duty going up from 20% to 70% on Chinese toys, "Between FY2019 and FY2024, toy imports fell nearly 80%, from $304 million to $64.9 million," while imports from China "dropped from around $263 million to just over $41 million." However, "while fewer finished toys are coming from China, most components, LEDs, circuit boards, plastics, packaging, still are." ET. Companies are not entirely to blame. "An entrepreneur's detailed Reddit post about the hurdles of building a legal warehouse in India went viral online. His stories of delays and bribes exposed the exhausting reality of navigating the system." India Today. Why blame the private sector when the system is rotten? Everyone likes easy money. It's natural.       

Living in Goldilocks world.

"India's economy is showing signs of entering what economists often call a 'Goldilocks' phase - neither too hot, nor too cold - marked by moderate, sustainable growth coupled with subdued inflation." ET. Goldilocks is a fairy tale about a little girl and a family of three bears, in which the little girl rejects either extreme and chooses the moderate middle. It ends with the girl running away. Storynory. "India's GDP growth remained steady at 6.5% in FY2024-25, and the RBI projects a similar trajectory for the current fiscal year." China's, "Economic growth will slow to 4.7% in 2025 and weaken further in 2026 to 4.3%." OECD.  "Multilateral financing agency International Monetary Fund (IMF) has said that India will retain its position as the fastest-growing major economy by clocking a GDP growth of 6.5% in 2025-26." ET. That being the case, why is the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) so keen on reducing interest rates to stimulate economic growth? "The RBI may plan to cut interest rates further if inflation goes below its projection or growth comes under pressure, Governor Sanjay Malhotra stated." MInt. For the fifth straight month, "Retail inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), declined to a six-year low of 2.1% in June, from 2.8% in May." It was because prices of food and beverages, which have a weightage of 46% in the CPI, have deflated by 0.2%. However, other components in the CPI basket have increased in price, including "education and healthcare costs and prices of many daily-use items. This means that the cost of living may not have come down even though the expenditure on food has declined." DH. "Car sales by Indian automakers to dealerships dropped to an 18-month low in June, dragged down by sluggish demand in urban markets." ET. "India's goods trade deficit is projected to widen to USD 300 billion in FY26, up from USD 287 billion in FY25, as weak global demand weighs on exports." ET. An analysis of 285 BSE-listed firms "showed a 12% year-on-year jump in total cash holdings to Rs 5.09 trillion in FY25," and "new project announcements dropped 5% in FY25." FE. Why produce if demand is weak? And fewer projects mean fewer jobs. "Two Indian nationals were killed and another, Ranjeet Singh from Jammu and Kashmir's Ramban district, was abducted in a terror attack in Niger's Dosso region on 08 July." TOI. Niger is a poor landlocked country in West Africa with a Real per capita GDP of $1700 and a total fertility rate of 6.64 children per woman. cia.gov. An Indian nurse Nimisha Priya has been sentenced to death in Yemen. BBC. Yemen is another dirt-poor country south of Saudi Arabia, which has been fighting a civil war since 2015 and a nominal GDP per capita of just $617. wikipedia. If India is growing gangbusters why are citizens going to these wretched countries looking for jobs? Are we just living in a fairy tale world? Like Goldilocks?        

It's an addiction.

The European Union has published its 18th round of sanctions on Russia. "The EU will impose a moving price cap on Russian crude at 15% below its average market price," and "That means a cap of roughly $47.60 per barrel at present, well below the $60 maximum the Group of Seven (G7) economies have tried to impose since December 2022." Reuters. For the first time it includes a refinery based in India. "Rosneft maintains a 49.13% ownership in Nayara Energy Ltd, previously known as Essar Oil Ltd. Nayara operates a 20 million tonne annual capacity oil refinery in Vadinar, Gujarat, alongside managing more than 6,750 patrol stations." TOI. This is breathtaking in its arrogance, duplicity and mendacity as, "the EU is purchasing 51% of Russia's LNG exports," and "the EU is the largest buyer, purchasing 37% of Russia's pipeline gas," said India's Oil Minister Hardeep Puri. "I said, 'friend, you tell them that they buy more in one afternoon - this is early days - than I buy in a quarter," he said. The EU consists of nations which established colonies in Africa, Asia and the Americas through military conquest. wikipedia. "No country or world region has ever received foreign income flows approaching the magnitude of Europe's in the 19th century." "On the eve of World War I, Europe's foreign wealth - i.e. net foreign assets owned by European residents in the rest of the world - reached about 70% Europe's GDP (30% of World's GDP), while all other parts of the world had a negative foreign assets position." "Without colonial transfers between 1800 and 1914,..in 1914, Europe would have had a very large debt, while South & South-East Asia (and to a lesser extent Latin America) would have accumulated significant foreign wealth." World Inequality Database. EU countries appear to be addicted to plunder and pillage. Actual numbers cannot be known now, but it is estimated that up to 100 million native Americans may have perished due to European invasion. wikipedia. Recent research shows that in "Just 40 of the total 200 years that the British ruled India, deaths that the colonisers are responsible for can easily surpass all famines in the Soviet Union, Maoist China and North Korea combined." ET. The UK looted an estimated $64.82 trillion from India between 1765 and 1900. ET. Did Russia ever invade France? No. But, France, under Nepoleon Bonaparte invaded Russia in 1812. Britannica. Did Russia ever invade Germany? No. But, Nazi Germany invaded the Soviet Union in 1941. wikipedia. The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) is a gang of former colonizing nations  (wikipedia), intent on solving disagreements with other countries through military power. Our media should publish the statistics of colonisation on front pages everyday. Time to show them. The truth. 

Equal consumption.

The World Inequality Database has pegged India's income-based Gini coefficient at 62 in 2023, but India's large informal workforce means income is volatile, whereas consumption is smoother over time, wrote Soumya Kanti Ghosh & Falguni Sinha. Gini coefficient is a measure of inequality, where 0 reflects perfect equality and 100 means all wealth in the hands of one individual. wikipedia. India's consumption-based Gini is at a low 25.5. "In India, where large-scale social welfare programs - subsidised grains, LPG, housing, rural employment guarantee, health insurance and direct benefit transfers - have significantly boosted the living standards of the poor, consumption will inevitably be higher and more equally distributed than income." Indeed. "The population covered by social protection systems has increased from 22% in 2016 to 64.5% in 2025," so that, "the proportion of men, women and children of all ages living in poverty in all its dimensions according to national definitions has declined sharply from 24.85% in 2015-16 to 14.96% in 2019-21." TOI. In India, "Going by facts, the 'middle class' could be the 2.2% of the electorate that pays (income) tax, or the 8% who own cars." But, "Studies conducted by Lok Foundation with the Center for the Advanced Study of India (CASI), University of Pennsylvania came up with the surprising finding that about 49% of respondents self-identified as being middle-class," wrote Prof Dipankar Gupta. This despite the fact that 29% of graduates are unemployed, "nearly nine times higher than 3.4% for the illiterate". Clearly, people are not defining themselves as middle class based on income, but on consumption. "India's middle class is not being crushed primarily by inflation or taxes, but by something far more insidious." "Household debt in India has now climbed to 42% of GDP. A striking 32.3% of this is made up of unsecured debt - credit cards, personal loans and Buy Now, Pay Later service." BT. To provide social security to 64.5% of a total population of 1,464 million (146.4 crore) (worldometer), the government would need to raise much higher revenue. Former CFO and board member at Infosys TV Mohandas Pai accused "central as well as state governments for 'oppressing' taxpayers and hounding them with 'tax terrorism'. Tax terrorism refers to a situation when the process of tax collections becomes so complex and harsh that ordinary citizens get unnecessarily harassed." FE. Terrorism has to be practiced surreptitiously. So, "Indian farmers are effectively taxed, not subsidized, agriculture economist Dr Ashok Gulati has said, citing international producer support benchmarks." BT. "As GST notices continue to land at the doorsteps of small traders across Karnataka, vendors in cities like Mysuru and Bengaluru are increasingly refusing UPI (United Payments Interface) in favor of cash - raising concerns over the future of India's digital ecosystem." TOI. Consumption without income is abnormal. An abnormal process can only have an abnormal outcome. Debt and terrorism.   

It's crystal clear.

"Israel launched powerful airstrikes in Damascus on 16 July, blowing up part of the Defence Ministry and hitting near the presidential palace as it vowed to destroy government forces attacking Druze in southern Syria and demanded they withdraw. The attacks marked a significant Israeli escalation against the Islamist-led administration of interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa." "Describing Syria's new rulers as barely disguised jihadists, Israel has said it will not let them move forces into southern Syria." Reuters. "A monitoring group says 594 people have been killed during recent violence in southern Syria," where, "300 members of the Druze religious minority were killed, including 146 fighters and 154 civilians, 83 of whom were 'summarily executed' by government forces." BBC. In March, Alawites were attacked, when, "973 civilians were killed in reprisal attacks carried out by government forces or fighters aligned with them." Reuters. Alawites are an offshoot of Shia Islam. Syria consists of "Sunni Muslims (74%), Alawis (12%), Christians (10%), Druze (3%), and small numbers of other Muslim sects, Jews and Yazidis." 2009-2017.state.gov. "The Assad family that ruled Syria from 1971 to 2024 are Alawites and made the community politically dominant there, although the state and its policies were largely secular under Hafez al-Assad and his son Bashar al-Assad." Britannica. So, a Shia minority has been ruling Syria for over 50 years. Which explains Sunni rage. Last September, "At least 32 people, including two children, were killed and thousands more injured, many seriously, after communication devices, some used by the armed group Hezbollah, dramatically exploded across Lebanon." BBC. Hezbollah is an Islamist Shia group which acts as a proxy for Iran and is financed, armed and trained by Iran. wikipedia. Hezbollah fighters had been actively supporting Assad's forces against those of rebels. BBC. Shia Muslims comprise around 10% of the world's Muslims and Sunnis are 90%. The Shia constitute the majority population in Iran, Iraq and Azerbaijan and are a minority in Bahrain, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Yemen and other countries. wikipedia. Although Sunni, the Hamas, which controls Gaza, has been supported by Iran since the 1980s. It receives financial and material support from Iran. congress.gov. Last month, Israel bombed key military and nuclear facilities in Iran while Iranian generals and scientists were assassinated by agents on the ground inside Iran. wikipedia. On 7 October 2023, Hamas launched a surprise attack inside Israel, killing 736 Israeli civilians, including 36 children, 79 foreign nationals and 379 members of security forces. Around 250 people were taken hostage. wikipedia. Ironically, Israel's attacks on Hezbollah and Iran, designed to reduce support for Hamas, led to the fall of Assad. Hamas was set up as a political arm of the Sunni Muslim Brotherhood which originated in Egypt. cfr.org. The Sunni rebels controlling Syria was the Jabhat al-Nusra, a direct affiliate of the Al Qaeda. BBC. Shia and Sunni are enemies. Sunni Hamas was supported by Shia Iran. Israel has weakened the Shia axis allowing Sunni rebels to control Syria across its border. President Trump has revoked sanctions against Syria. BBC. But Israel just bombed Damascus. May seem like a free for all (Dictionary) to us but it's clear to those in the Middle East. Like crystal. 

Shrinking opportunities.

Kota, in Rajasthan, "The coaching capital of India seems to have lost its mojo in the last few years." "A spate of student suicides have dealt an additional blow, ending the city's dream run as the coaching capital in the country." With that, the support ecosystem has also suffered. "Gone are the lanes teeming with students in coaching center uniforms, the packed restaurants serving burgers, vadas and omelettes, and the 'no vacancy' signs at paying guest (PG) accommodations in coveted neighborhoods." India Today. Coaching for higher education institutions comes after secondary school and private schools are becoming too expensive for middle class parents. Total expense for schooling one child is now in excess of Rs 400,000 per year, which would almost equal one parents salary. India Today. However, what other option is there? "As many as 43% of India's schoolchildren in Class VI can't grasp main ideas in texts, and a staggering 63% of Class IX students fail to spot simple patterns in numbers or understand basic numerical sets like fractions and integers, the ministry of education's PARAKH Rashtriya Sarvekshan has revealed." There is wide variation between states, as well as rural-urban and gender-based variation. TOI. In states like Jharkhand, "nearly one in three government primary schools there is run by a single teacher." In some states, "these schools are tucked away in remote tribal villages or Dalit hamlets -- places that need education the most." India Today. Without school education children cannot aspire to higher education. But here also, "Close to 60% of India's 34mn students enrolled in undergraduate courses may end up in jobs unrelated to what they study in college or university. That's nearly 20mn studying subjects irrelevant to their future," wrote Prof Binay Panda. There are not enough quality jobs to absorb youth who are qualified. "Out of the about 900 million people in the working-age population,..only about 330 million of the 610 million workforce were engaged in non-farm sector jobs in 2023-24." "About 28 million unemployed educated youth are looking for decent jobs, and about 100 million educated youth (mostly women) are not actively looking for employment," wrote Prof Santosh Mehrotra. Poor education and lack of jobs forces Indians to migrate, often illegally, to countries offering a higher standard of living. There are at least 725,000 Indians living illegally in the US who are in danger of being deported. TOI. Canada is also clamping down on Indians. "In recent months, many Indian migrants in Canada have found themselves in a troubling situation: there work permits and expiring, and renewals are delayed, leaving them unable to work or access essential services." ET. "Across India Punjabis are infamous for their desire to migrate abroad, especially to Canada." They have to prove proficiency in English by passing the IELTS exam. In 2023, 1.4-1.5 million students took the exam but "the number dropped drastically to 200,000-300,000 in 2024. As IELTS and visa centers have shut down it has affected the economy of Punjab. Mint. No jobs, can't go abroad. Can't even be illegal. All irrelevant.       

No place like home.

"In April this year, Trump had announced a 26% reciprocal tariff rate on India. He later suspended tariffs for all countries to 10%, giving them room to negotiate a trade deal." What if we fail to agree on a trade deal? No sweat. "In its latest report SBI Research has said that India will be able to diversify its export horizons to counter any negative impact of a less than favorable deal with the US." For example, we can increase our market share for services, chemicals and apparel. If it is that simple why aren't we doing it already? Other countries hit with high tariffs will also be looking to diversify their markets. Textile and garments constitute 80% of Bangladesh's exports which now face 35% tariff. "That is more than double the 16% already placed on cotton products." NDTV. "Bangladesh exported $8.36 billion worth of goods to the US in 2024," which they will try to dump on other markets, significantly increasing competition for Indian companies. "India's growing economic size may soon make it the world's third-largest economy, but former Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Raghuram Rajan says that without becoming a global innovation leader, this achievement may hold little value." As, "India does not have a single company that is known across the world for its products." ET. "Instead, our economic system is dominated by national champions who are giants domestically but minnows internationally." "As the domestic market grows larger, the problem gets worse since our large players can make yet more money from their inward focus. Also, why innovate when steady imitation is enough to keep domestic consumers satisfied?" wrote Prof Rajan. Protected from competition by high tariffs on imports our companies can sell any substandard product at high prices. India has a huge population of over 1,464 million people. worldometer. Just 10% of this population would be almost equal to the combined populations of Germany (84 million) and the United Kingdom (70 million). worldometer. Why bother with two faraway countries when they have a captive market at home? "Quality consciousness is not embedded in our systems. Our factories are usually price-competitive but often fail to be quality-competitive as they are content with local markets." "Our exporters complain about 'non-tariff barriers' but never discuss why the Chinese, Japanese and Korean companies never encounter them," wrote  TCA Ranganathan. Flexport CEO Ryan Petersen claimed "excessive paperwork hampers ease of doing business compared to other countries," as "he has had to file more 'useless paperwork' in India than all other countries combined." HT. High praise, indeed! Our most efficient companies are the mafias. "Sand mafia, tanker mafia, parking mafia, coal mafia, slum mafia, to name a few." Naturally, politicians, civil servants and the police are paid handsomely to turn a blind eye. In Sonipat, near Delhi, a gang built an illegal road "through forestland for transporting illegally quarried stone from Haryana to Rajasthan. Later, a drone survey revealed not one but three unauthorized roads in the area," wrote Abhilash Gaur. We can make the best quality. Just make it illegal.    

Flood and drain.

"India's retail inflation eased to a six-year low of 2.10% in June, aided by an easing of food prices and favorable base effects, government data showed." "However, core inflation has ticked up." ET. "Core inflation tracks how prices are rising across the economy, leaving out food and energy, since the prices of those items tend to swing unpredictably." Investopedia. Since food and energy prices depend on supplies and are volatile, core inflation probably gives a more reliable indication of the direction of prices in the economy. But, our news media never give the figure for core inflation, preferring to clamor for cuts in interest rates based on the consumer price index (CPI) inflation. Whether our 'Godi' (lapdog) media  (wikipedia) has been so instructed is not known. "India's wholesale inflation contracted to 0.13% in June on an annual basis, marking the lowest recorded since October 2023, according to government data." ET. "Three separate reports have independently lamented the sharp fall in FDI (foreign direct investment)," as, since 2008, global FDI flows "as a share of global GDP declined from 5% in 2007 to below 1% during both 2023 and 2024, the lowest since the start of the century," wrote Rajrishi Singhal. "What makes India's FDI data remarkable, however, is the country's growing outflows," with "Indian businesses increasingly favoring overseas investments rather than putting their money to work at home." The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) cut its policy rate by 50 basis points to 5.5% in June. "RBI has cumulatively cut the repo rate by 100 basis points since its February policy review." TOI.  At the same time the RBI is to cut the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR), which is the percentage of total deposits to be deposited with the RBI by commercial banks (BS), by 100 basis points from 4% to 3% in four tranches of 25 basis points between September and November (ET). All this was designed to flush banks with a flood of cash money to force them to lend at lower rates. But, Has it worked? "RBI will conduct a record Rs 2.5 trillion variable rate reverse repo (VRRR) auction...as it seeks to absorb a persistent glut of liquidity in the banking system. This move follows a series of recent VRRR operations that have drained Rs 3 trillion," and yet, "By some estimates, the system is now awash with close to Rs 9 trillion in excess funds, drawing parallels with the quantitative easing seen in developed economies after the global financial crisis." TOI. Why this seemingly rash excess when "India became the 4th largest global economy in 2025," and "is the world's fastest-growing major economy, with real GDP growing at 6.5% and nominal GDP tripling from Rs 106.57 trillion (2014-15) to Rs 331.03 trillion (2024-25). pib.giv.in. These numbers would be considered blistering growth by other countries. Given such a rosy outlook, the RBI's frantic efforts at stimulating economic growth seems inexplicable. Flood with money and then drain it. Seems kind of futile. Foolish even.  

Helpless Moksha.

"Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) Chief Mohan Bhagwat's remarks on political retirement at the age of 75 has prompted the opposition to question its implications for Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who turns 75 this September." ET. "September 11 will now be the date to watch. That's when Bhagwat turns 75. If he decides to follow his own counsel and retire, there will at least be 'talk' about Modi in the BJP corridors. Will there be a challenge. No." "Nobody would dare to even whimper, forget making a claim. Modi now has the power and pre-eminence in the BJP-RSS to choose how long he wants to serve and he is definitely going to want to contest in 2009," wrote Shekhar Gupta. "The Vedas, from whence we are instructed, Hindutva derives, designate 75 as the marker for the jeev atma (the fleshly human) to turn towards the forest in order to renounce this world and begin the quest for moksha (salvation)." The quandary for Mr Modi is whether he goes now as instructed by the Vedas, or hangs on until he has converted India into a Hindu Rashtra (state), wrote Badri Raina. Mr Modi had a popularity rating of 62% from 2 January-9 February 2025 (India Today), down from 87% from 6 April-19 May 2015 (Pew Research). wikipedia. The big guns in the BJP may want him to step down so that they may have a tilt at the post of prime minister but those lower down could want him to stay because they depend on Mr Modi's popularity to win elections. And winning a seat in the Indian Parliament is extremely lucrative. "An analysis of affidavits of about 258 sitting MPs recontesting the 2009 Lok Sabha elections shows that more than half of them saw their assets grow between 100% and 9,100% in comparison to what they had in 2004." TOI. Then, there is probably a worry that if the BJP were to lose the 2029 general election the new government would gain control of the investigative agencies and there could be a danger of score-settling for the alleged targeting of opposition politicians (The Wire). In January 2023, Hindenburg Research revealed "the findings of our 2-year investigation, presenting evidence that the INR 17.8 trillion (US $218 billion) Indian conglomerate Adani Group has engaged in a brazen stock manipulation and accounting fraud scheme over the course of decades." However, "A Supreme Court-appointed panel of experts examining India's regulatory mechanism in an investigation linked to the Hindenburg allegations has given a clean chit to the Adani Group and has said it appears there was no regulatory failure on the part of the market regulator SEBI." NDTV. It is irrelevant that Mr Adani is from Mro Modi's home state of Gujarat (Britannia). What if Mr Modi declares his intention to step down and there is an outcry from BJP members for him to stay? That could explain Operation Sindoor which was "focused, measured and non-escalatory" (pib.gov.in), like the 'surgical strike' on Balakot in 2019, in which "Open source satellite imagery revealed that no targets of consequence was hit" (wikipedia) but gave Mr Modi a landslide victory in the general election that followed (wikipedia). Create a TINA (there is no alternative) wave and reluctantly agree to stay in power. Helpless in front of adoration, as it were. That's moksha.       

Retiring or redundant?

"Between late May and early June, Chinese President Xi Jinping simply disappeared. No parades. No spotlight." "Even stranger, Xi's personal security detail has been halved." "General Zhang Youxia who helped Xi secure an historic third term, is rumored to be calling the shots in the People's Liberation Army." "Dozens of generals loyal to Xi have vanished or been replaced." ET. For the first time in over a decade, Xi missed the BRICS summit in Brazil on 6-7 July 2025 (brics.br). "Xi Jinping is staying away from the Rio de Janeiro summit to concentrate on managing China's economic challenges." Mint. In October 2016 Xi was named a 'core' leader. "In Chinese political hagiography, a core leader of the Party is one whose teachings and policies determine and drive the grand strategy of the Chinese state." "Only three other Chinese leaders have been anointed core leaders: Mao (posthumously), Deng Xiaoping (who invented the notion) and Jiang Zemin." orfonline.org. But, "Chinese President Xi Jinping, widely regarded as a leader for life, is beginning to delegate authority to key organs of the Chinese Communist Party, a first in his over 12-year rule." "All of Xi's predecessors retired after two five-year terms, while he continued in power with no term limits, earning him the label of president for life." ET. The question is: does Xi really want to retire or is he being slowly pushed out? In October 2022, former leader Hu Jintao was asked to leave the stage during the Communist Party Congress at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing. "Chinese state news agency Xinhua reported that Mr Hu was escorted from the chamber after feeling unwell. But Mr Hu, 79, appeared reluctant to move. If that is the case, why?" BBC. In 2023, Xi missed the G20 meeting during 9-10 September in Delhi, India (g20.in). This was the first time that Xi missed a G20 meeting and it may have been because of the summer's Beidaihe meeting, "the annual get-together of incumbent and retired leaders of the Chinese Communist Party at the seaside resort of Beidaihe, Hebei Province." "Sources said that at this year's gathering, a group of party elders reprimanded the top leader in ways they had not until now. Xi later expressed his frustration to his closest aides." HT. In October 2023, former Chinese premier Li Keqiang died suddenly of a heart attack at aged 68. "He was the only incumbent top official who didn't belong to Mr Xi's loyalists group." BBC. However, "Even the Chinese public do not believe the official story. There is even a rumor circulating among Chinese online groups that Li's obituary was written the day before he died, causing still more people to believe that his death may have been 'brought about'." Taipei Times. All of this would not matter if the economy was doing well. But it's not. The property market is in doldrums, unemployment among young people is high, people are reluctant to spend and the population is aging. BBC. Will there be a civil war in China along the lines of the Cultural Revolution (wikipedia)? It will be great for us. In India.