The leash on animal spirits.

According to the National Statistics Office, "Real GDP has been estimated to grow by 6.5% in FY 2024-25." "As per the First Revised Estimates, Real GDP has grown by 9.2% in the financial year 2023-24." "As per the Final Estimates, Real GDP has observed a growth rate of 7.6% in the financial year 2022-23." pib. gov.in. The growth rate for FY23 was revised up by 60 basis points (bps), from 7% to 7.6%, while that of FY24 was upped by a full 100 bps, from 8.2% to 9.2%. BS. while  "For the full financial year (2024-25), growth is seen at 6.5%," which "implicitly assumes that economy will grow at 7.6% in the fourth quarter." "Large magnitude of revisions makes the assessment of economic conditions and formulation of policy responses a challenging task," wrote Prof Radhika Pandey & Pramod Sinha. "Smaller revisions in GDP numbers are a common practice, what baffles analysts and economists are the massive revisions." "Provisional GDP numbers usually rely on listed firm's data. The unlisted (unorganised) firms' data is usually available with a lag. It is likely that unlisted firms fared better," said economist Subhada Rao. According to the Annual Survey of Unincorporated Sector Enterprises (ASUSE) 2023-24, "the average informal sector firm operating in the market had just 1.64 workers (including working owners), of which just 0.42 were hired workers." The gross value added (GVA) of the firm "less emoluments paid to workers and rental paid on fixed assets - was just Rs 14,836 per month or Rs 178,036 per year," wrote Abhishek Jha & Roshan Kishore. "87% of informal sector firms in the 2023-24 ASUSE data are own account establishments which means they hire no workers and run with just the working owners and unpaid family members." "Even in manufacturing almost three-fourths of the workers are either owners or unpaid family members." "Growth in private consumption as well as investment remain at least two percentage points per annum lower than their pre-2019 rates." "Meanwhile, private-sector data broken up by industry groups also points to a drying up of pent-up demand," wrote Prof Himanshu. A report from Blume Ventures estimates that India's consuming class is only as big as that of Mexico at 130-140 million, while "around a billion lack money to spend on any discretionary goods or services." BBC. We need to remove "ambiguities in laws and regulations", cut the powers of bureaucrats and punish those who abuse the rules, wrote Pradeep S Mehta. In FY 2000, "household savings accounted for 84% of the total savings in the economy, but this share has now dropped to just 61% in FY23." Financial savings fell from 101% of GDP to just 5% of GDP while financial liabilities have risen from 2% to 5.8% over the same period." ET. The government has scrapped bilateral investment treaties to protect national interests but foreign companies will not invest because they have little faith in our justice system and our merchandise exports are less than 3% of global merchandise exports, and shrinking, wrote TCA Sharad Raghavan. GDP is just a number, the economy is the people. 'Animal spirits'  (Investopedia) cannot be unleashed unless the restraints are removed. Government is the leash. 

Low risk, low volatility.

"Six years ago, only one in 14 Indian households channeled their savings into the stock market - now it's one in five." But, "For six months, Indian markets have slid as foreign investors pulled out, valuations remained high, earnings weakened and global capital shifted to China - wiping out $900 billion in investor value since their September peak." "The number of Indians investing through SIPs (Systematic Investment Plans) has soared past 100 million, nearly trebling from 34 million five years ago." BBC. "So, is there blood on the streets?" asked Somnath Mukherjee. Nope. "Stretch that back three years, investors are up 11% p.a. on Nifty 50 and nearly 13% p.a. on Nifty 500." The real problem is the excessive "supply of new paper - via IPOs, QIPs, promoter and PE sales." So, this is only reversion to mean. The big red flag is that "Promoters of Nifty 50 firms are offloading their stakes at an unprecedented pace, with ownership sinking to a 22-year low of 41.1% in the December quarter, according to NSA data." "The timing is telling: promoters sold as stock valuations soared to record highs, cashing out before the market corrected." ET. They must have known their earnings were going to fall. "In India's case, much of the stock market rally between April 2021 and September 2024, when prices peaked was driven by retail investors, particularly those investing in equity mutual funds through the SIP route." "So, the individual rationality of investing in stocks through SIPs led to the aggregate irrationality of making Indian stocks overvalued." This is the 'fallacy of composition', wrote Vivek Kaul. "In the recent market decline, 1% of stocks have experienced catastrophic losses exceeding 80%, while another 59.7% have seen declines of 25-50%. Alarmingly, 8% are now trading below the March 2020 lows, signalling erosion of stock market confidence." However, "The Vix, measuring 30-day implied volatility, currently sits below 14, implying a period of reduced perceived risk." HT. Is this calm because promoters and large brokerage houses have booked their gains at the cost of retail investors? "RBI data showed outward foreign direct investment in equity from India in April-January at $11.3 billion, against $7.7 billion in the same period a year ago." The Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran called for more investments within India, saying, "the required growth rate of 7.6% in the March quarter for India's economy to achieve a growth of 6.5% for the full financial year was not unrealistic." man.com. On 1 January, "A bunch of top companies is hanging on to almost Rs 1 trillion of free cash that it has yet to find a use for, according to an analysis by a proxy advisory firm," wrote Nehal Chaliawala. Companies are not investing. Their owners are selling out. Individuals are left with dud investments. If this is 'reversion to mean' then India's mean is very low indeed. Hence, everything is calm. 

Win the peace.

"Iran's stock of uranium close to weapons grade has jumped since it announced a dramatic acceleration in enrichment in December," and "The stock of uranium refined up to 60% in the form of uranium hexafluoride grew by 92.5 kg in the past quarter to 274.8 kg, one of two confidential IAEA reports said." Reuters. This has happened because of previous President Joe Biden. In February 2021, "The Biden administration rescinded former President Donald Trump's restoration of UN sanctions on Iran, an announcement that could help Washington move toward rejoining the 2015 nuclear agreement aimed at reining in the Islamic Republic's nuclear program." AP. "Several senior Russian missile specialists have visited Iran over the past year," and "A senior Iranian defence ministry official said Russian missile experts had made multiple trips to Iranian missile production sites last year, including two underground facilities." Reuters. On 28, February, "Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was suddenly asked to leave the White House after he had a heated standoff with US President Donald Trump." "The meeting, which was aimed at signing a joint US-Ukraine deal, went into shambles after a shouting match involving Trump, Zelensky and Vice President JD Vance." ET. "A report by New York Post suggests that Democratic lawmakers may have played a role in Zelensky's decision to reject a crucial mineral deal with the US," as according to Sen Chris Murphy (D-Conn), "during their discussion, Zelensky confirmed that Ukraine would not support a peace agreement with Russia if it didn't include real security arrangements for Ukraine." "The meeting took place just hours before Zelensky was due to meet with Trump, and it seems that Democratic leaders in Washington were advising Zelensky to reject Trump's proposed deal." ET. Democrat duplicity could increase Ukrainian casualties as, "President Donald Trump is ordering a pause on shipments of US military aid to Ukraine," which "could have dire effect on Ukraine's war-fighting abilities, officials and analysts said." CNN. Further, "The future of US support for Ukraine is being pushed further into doubt, with National Security Adviser Mike Waltz confirming yesterday that the US has stopped intelligence sharing with Ukraine." BBC. Before his meeting with Zelensky, Trump "underscored his administration's position that Ukraine's aspiration to join NATO, the Western military alliance is not tenable." ET. That is all Russian President Vladimir Putin wants. This is Zelensky's chance to show his patriotism and diplomacy. He should negotiate a security guarantee, not with Europe or the US, but with Russia, by committing to staying out of NATO. Security guarantees for both sides. See through Democratic trickery. And Europe's perfidy (CSIS). Win the peace.  

We need to shield ourselves.

"US President Donald Trump in his joint address to the Congress today vowed to kick-in reciprocal tariffs against India and China from April 2, 2025." FE. "India charges us 100% tariffs, the system is not fair to the US, it never was. Whatever they tax us, we will tax them. If they use non-monetary barriers to keep us out of their market, then we will use non-monetary barriers to keep them out of our market," Trump stated. India has instituted strict Quality Control Order (QCO) for imports and exports (Tax Management India) but "The USA, Canada and 17 other members have raised 35 specific trade concerns (STCs) about India's quality control orders over the years. Members criticize India's responses as not entirely responsive to their concerns." Ply Insight. "India's import duties are in compliance with the global trade and the government should convey this to the US administration, economic think tank Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) said." ET. That is naive. On his first day in office, Trump issued an Executive Order withdrawing the US from the World Health Organisation (WHO) (The White House), so he is not likely to respect the WTO. In addition, "All Indian commerce ministers from Kamal Nath onwards sought to keep India as closed as possible, and would return from WTO meetings claiming triumphantly that they had protected Indian interests." "In recent years, many analysts have declared that WTO is dying or dead. India cannot escape responsibility for this," wrote Swaminathan SA Aiyar. Indians could be affected by other policies of the Trump administration. Automatic renewal of H1B visas to be cut from 540 days to 180 days. BS. In 2024, Indians "made up 72.3% of the 386,000 H-1B visas issued". Also, "Trump signed an executive order...to combat antisemitism and pledged to deport non-citizen college students and others who took part in pro-Palestinian protests." Reuters. Indian students identified taking part in such protests could be sent back without completing their degrees wasting all the money spent. In addition, "Canada's tightening stance on immigration is also affecting the number of study permits granted to Indian students." "Moreover, the Fall 2025 applicants face the new C$20,635 GIC (guaranteed investment certificate) requirement." NDTV. "Estimates suggest that around 427,000 Indian students are currently enrolled in Canadian institutions." But, "nearly 20,000 Indian students have not joined their respective colleges or universities after arriving in Canada, and the government has no record of their whereabouts." TOI. Indians, who had entered the US illegally, were sent back in handcuffs and shackles. NDTV. The Narendra Modi government "genuinely believes that India's position as the fastest-growing major economy will automatically ensure continued investments and fast growth," and seems completely delusional about "India's export competitiveness - and whether Indian companies even want to export." The Print. The biggest weakness for India may be that Mr Modi would like to remain prime minister forever, while Trump is in his last term and will go in four years and Canada Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has announced his resignation (CNN). They have nothing to lose. India has to shield itself while maintaining diplomatic decorum. Will the arrows pierce through?         

Tax cuts of Rs 8.7 trillion.

"Gross GST (goods and services tax) collections grew 9.1% to about Rs 1.84 trillion in February." GST collections in January increased 12.3% year-on-year to Rs 1.96 trillion and 7.3% in December to Rs 1.77 trillion. ET. Collections increased from Rs 215.72 billion in July 2017 to an all-time high of Rs 2.10 trillion in April 2024. wikipedia. This is due to more efficient collections, bringing more companies into GST net and a doubling of average annual inflation from 3.3% in 2017 to 6.7% in 2022 (RI) and, though the average annual rise of inflation fell to 5.7% in 2023 and 4.9% in 2024, GST continues to hit record numbers because inflation  compounds year to year. However, the government has  reduced income tax rates for individuals. "Individuals and HUFs (Hindu undivided families) got cumulative rebates worth Rs 8.7 trillion, compared with Rs 4.5 trillion of corporate tax incentives," over the past five years to 2024. ET. As ever, information about the government is never complete in India. Because even as the government was reducing income tax rates by tiny increments (incometax.gov.in), it was clawing back massive amounts from capital gains. Tax on long term capital gains (LTCG) has been increased from 10%-12.5% but the real damage comes from the removal of inflation indexation (Bajaj) because India always runs a very high rate of inflation. Tax rate for short term capital gains (STCG) has been increased from 15%-20%. Bajaj. But, sleight of hand has consequences, however cunning it may be. Foreign investors (FIIs) have been dumping Indian stocks because "In USD terms, foreigners have made virtually ZERO returns in the last 3 years and a paltry 7.8% in the last 5. Their stance to sell is not wrong from their perspective," said Alok Jain, founder of Weekend Investing. In 2020, one US dollar bought Rs 74.31. The rupee had fallen to 83.28 by May of 2024. worldtradescanner. com. The dollar is trading at Rs 87.36 this morning. xe.com. That is a fall of 17.56% in just five years. So, after paying STCG at 12.5% and losing 17.56% in converting rupees to dollars, FIIs have gained nothing in 5 years. After hitting an all-time high of 85,978.35 in September 2024 (FE), the S&P BSE Sensex is down to around 72,950 this morning. As FIIs buy dollars for repatriation the rupee falls. India's foreign exchange reserves "declined from an all-time high of nearly $705 billion in late September to $640 billion." In addition, "The RBI's net short dollar position in forwards and futures hit a record high of $77.5 billion in January 2025." "The data is released with a one-month lag." Reuters. The dollar short sales will have to be deducted from RBI's reserves in the future. The RBI has been indulging in gymnastics to defend the rupee. A weaker rupee increases prices of imports and adds to inflation. Higher inflation compared to the US depreciates the rupee. Tax cuts should be genuine. Fake cuts get fake results.   

All about credit.

Data released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) show that India's economy grew at 6.2% in the December quarter of 2024 and the growth rate for 2024-25 is expected to be 6.5%, which implies a growth rate 7.6% in the fourth quarter. Astonishingly, "MoSPI revised growth estimates for FY23 to 7.6% from 7% and for FY24 to 9.2% from 8.2%." BS. "Small revisions in GDP estimate numbers are common practice, what baffles analysts and economists are the massive revisions." "If accuracy of government data becomes suspect, the effectiveness of policy making comes under scrutiny as well." TNIE. This government is known to create data convenient to it. "India has officially recorded 414,000 Covid-19 deaths so far," but researchers from "the US based Center for Global Development used three different data sources" and "found that excess deaths were estimated to be in the range of 3.4 million to 4.7 million - about ten times higher." BBC. Since June 2024, the government discontinued releasing the goods and services (GST) data. "This data was not shared in a formal press release, but provided to reporters informally." Only the gross total collections were released but not the details. BT. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) "estimates that from the end of 2018-19 up to the end of 2023-24, close to 151 million jobs were created," and "more than 31 million jobs were created even during the pandemic year of 2020-21." Former Prime Minister of China LiKeqiang "liked looking at indicators like railway cargo volume, electricity consumption and loans disbursed by banks in order to get an indication of which way the Chinese economy was headed." Similarly, "we could do with our own version of the LiKeqiang index," wrote Vivek Kaul. "Given the weaknesses in India's statistical system, annual data on many sectors are unavailable. India's national accountants use outdated data, heroic assumptions and rough proxies to fill these gaps in the national accounting database," wrote Pramit Bhattacharya. PC Mahalanobis and Pitambar Pant established the Planning Commission, created by Jawaharlal Nehru, as a knowledge powerhouse. "The major databases economists and analysts use today to track the economy such as the National Accounts series and the National Sample Survey (NSS). were shaped by Mahalanobis and his colleagues in the early years after Independence." Niti Aayog is the successor of the Planning Commission. "Several officials view the Aayog as the Union government's public relations and event management wing rather than a serious policy think tank," wrote Bhattacharya. All the credit rating agencies have assigned a rating at the lowest investment grade for India. TE. The government and economists in India believe that these foreign agencies are biased because India is the fastest growing major economy in the world. Forbes. However, these growth rates are seen as suspicious by those not working for the government. Foreigners use their own analysis. If data have no credit, neither will ratings. Nor the country.

India facing Trump plus.

"India's economy is on the verge of crossing the $4 trillion mark in FY25, with the latest nominal GDP estimate standing at Rs 331 trillion, or approximately $3.942 trillion, Chief Economic Adviser (CEA) V Anantha Nageswaran said." "The final figure will depend on the exchange rate." CNBC. "The World Bank has estimated that India will need to grow 7.8% on an average over the next 22 years to become a high-income economy by 2047 and underlined the need for a series of reforms to achieve the goal." The key is to increase productivity which needs a more open economy. TOI. "Future growth trajectory of the country will be led by revival in private investment, according to the State Bank of India (SBI)." SBI said that "gross capital formation - which represents overall investment in the economy - dropped from 32.6% of GDP in FY23 to 31.4% in FY24." Government and public sector investment reached an all-time high of 8% of GDP in FY24, but private sector investment fell to 24% from a 10-year high of 25.8% of GDP in FY23. ET. Mr Nageswaran also asked the private sector to increase investment in India so that capital formation rises from  30% to mid-30s of GDP. "RBI data showed outward foreign direct investment in equity from India in April-January at $11.3 billion, against $7.7 billion in the same period a year ago." Mint. The private sector is scared to invest because, since 2022, "'predatorily priced' Chinese imports - where the landed cost of imports is either lower than the cost of production or locally sold price - started flooding the Indian market. Prices tanked." If President Donald Trump imposes 60% tariff on China, "Chinese exports to the US are expected to fall by 85%. This output will find its way into other markets, including India." India's anti-dumping measures, at 15%, are far higher than the global rate of 2.4% but still it cannot compete. Mint. "US average MFN (most favored nation status) tariff on agriculture goods is 5%. But India's average applied MFN tariff is 39%." "All Indian commerce ministers from Kamal Nath onwards sought to keep India as closed as possible, and would return from WTO meetings claiming triumphantly that they had protected Indian interests." This has made the WTO irrelevant," wrote Swaminathan SA Aiyar. "To get our economy to top speed, we have gone from encouraging vocational training, to handholding MSMEs, to export promotional policies to Production Linked Incentive (PLI) schemes," following the Korean model of encouraging chaebols, but we forget that "Korea spends 5% of its GDP on R&D, whereas India only 0.7%. Of this small sum, the Indian private sector contributes a niggardly 41% against Korea's 79%. Tellingly, Samsung invests 8-11% on R&D, but Reliance a paltry 0.6%," wrote Prof Dipankar Gupta. "India is home to 1.4 billion people but around a billion lack money to spend on any discretionary goods or services," and "The country's consuming class, effectively the potential market for startups or business owners, is only about as big as Mexico, 130-140 million people, according to the report from Blume Ventures." BBC. That is one-and-a-half times the entire population of Germany at 82.23 million (worldometer). Why bother with R&D when there is a huge market at home, shielded by protection from the government? By forcing India to reduce tariffs Trump is doing us a favor, says Aiyar. But, how will our companies cope with a flood of Chinese goods? Some companies might fail. That will be devastating for the children of tycoons. "Modern scions believe in passive income, active vacations and aggressive networking at yacht parties," wrote Harsh Goenka. Must protect children.     

Just take the top 10%.

In India and the US, "the top 10% of the consumers are holding up consumption," while "the others are pinching pennies, two different reports have argued." During Covid, "the revival of the Indian economy was achieved through aggressive government spending, it doubled the fiscal deficit between FY20 and FY21, eventually in a rise in money supply." This, along with surging personal credit, pushed inflation up. In the US, "the top 10% consumers now account for 49.7% of all spending," while others are cutting their spending because of inflation. ET. However, the economic impact of Covid was handled in diametrically opposite ways by India and the US. In India, the Rs 20 trillion stimulus was mainly in the form of loans and economists calculated that the actual cash outgo of the government was only Rs 2 trillion or 1% of our Rs 211 trillion GDP. DH. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) allowed consumer price index (CPI) inflation to run at over 6% (RI) by keeping its policy rate unchanged at 4% for 24 months from 22 May 2020 (BT) till 4 May 2022, when it hiked the interest rate by 40 basis points in an emergency meeting (ET). The US government transferred a total of $814 billion directly to households in three rounds, in March 2020, in December 2020 and in March 2021. Pandemic Oversight. Annual CPI inflation rose to 3% in January from 2.9% in December (CNBC) while the personal consumption index (PCE) rose by 2.5% and the core PCE, excluding food and energy, was at 2.6% annually, down from 2.9% in December (CNBC). The year-on-year CPI inflation in India came in at 4.31% (provisional) in January 2025. pib.gov.in. The RBI's Inflation Expectations Survey of Households (IESH) in September 2024 showed that 74.4% of households expected inflation to remain the same or rise over three months, causing the middle class, earning Rs 50-100,000 per month, to cut expenses or switch to cheaper alternatives, wrote Deepa Vasudevan. Indian consumers have been borrowing to finance their spending, so that total borrowing of households has increased 56% to Rs 120 trillion by March 2024 from Rs 77 trillion in June 2021, from 41% of GDP to 42.9% of GDP. Rising interest payments and rising prices have subdued consumer spending. Mint. "India's fiscal deficit for the first 10 months of this fiscal year through January stood at Rs 11.70 trillion, or 74.5% of annual estimates," compared to 63.6% a year earlier. ET. To deal with the internal and external economic challenges, retired IAS officer Mr Shaktikanta Das has been appointed the second Principal Secretary to Prime Minister Narendra Modi. India Today. Mr Das was the Governor of the RBI from 12 December 2018 to 11 December 2024 (wikipedia) and helped the government during Covid by tolerating CPI inflation in excess of 6%. He was appointed shortly after the disastrous demonetisation of Rs 1000 and Rs 500 banknotes on 8 November 2018 which turned out to be "a failure of epic proportions" (BBC). Right man for the job. When India and the US are so similar.     

Obesity is also malnutrition.

"According to online forum Global Obesity Observatory, the economic impact of obesity in India in 2019 was estimated to be $28.95 billion (Rs 2.4 trillion), equivalent to around Rs 1,800 per capita and 1.02% of GDP." By 2030, that is projected to grow to $81.53 billion (Rs 6.7 trillion at today's exchange rate), Rs 4,700 per capita and 1.57% of GDP. In another 30 years, it could rise to $838.6 billion (Rs 69.6 trillion), Rs 44,200 per capita and 2.5% of GDP. TOI. India's per capita GDP was Rs 98,374 at constant prices in 2022- 2023 (pib.gov. in), having grown from Rs 86,668 in 2017-2018 (mospi.gov.in). Unless per capita GDP rises to millions, Indians will not be able to afford food and will lose weight automatically. The Economic Survey 2023-24 quoted figures from the National Family Health Survey 5 (NFHS-5) which reported that obesity in men aged 18-69 has increased to 22.9% from 18.9% in NFHS-4, and for women it has increased to 24.0% from 20.6% in the same period. ET. According to the NFHS 2019-21, 87% of men and 75% of women in India in 15-49 age group reported eating meat, fish or eggs. It was at least 40% across all major religious groups. HT. As people become more affluent they tend to eat more meat. "Richer people tend to have more diverse diets. They get a lower share of their calories from staples such as cereals, roots, and tubers and increase their consumption of fruit, vegetables, dairy and meat." Our World in Data. While over 20% of Indians have become obese, the Household Consumption Expenditure Survey 2022-23 reported that only "56% of the population had three meals a day while 43% had just two". HT. "Around 17% of children in the age group of 0-5 years are underweight, while 36% are stunted and 6% are wasted, the Women and Child Development Ministry said on 26 July 2024." The Hindu. Prime Minister Narendra Modi declared that 813.5 million people will be provided with free food grains for five years starting on 1 January 2024 at a cost of Rs 11.80 trillion over the 5-year period. pib.gov.in. A diet mainly consisting of cereals, but lacking in fruits, meat, fish and eggs, may provide enough calories but not enough nutrients for proper growth of children. Gluten is the main protein contained in wheat (Science Direct) and may cause an autoimmune reaction resulting in celiac disease in susceptible people. This may cause chronic diarrhea, weight loss and anemia. Mayo Clinic. "Purses such as lentils, chickpeas, black beans, and peas all provide a plant-based source of protein. Pulses typically contain 21-25% protein (dry weight) - almost double that found in cereals." eufic. It is more lucrative for farmers to grow cereals because state governments subsidise water and electricity, the Food Corporation of India buys cereals at a Minimum Support Price, which sets a floor under prices, and output per hectare in much more for cereals than for pulses, wrote Madan Sabnavis. How to tackle obesity along with under undernutrition. After all, obesity is also a form of malnutrition. Can't stop people eating.        

English essential.

"Citing 'inadequate' English language proficiency as a major factor affecting employability among youth graduating from public universities, the NITI Aayog has recommended these institutions collaborate with international language organisations to offer English and foreign language proficiency programs, with examples of success in Punjab and Karnataka." The Print. Not totally correct. Indian students going to Canadian or US universities have to pass the International English Language Testing System (IELTS) exam. "In Punjab, a whole economy has formed to tutor students," and "If you go to any major town in the state, you will see a street full of IELTS centers." "A year ago, there were 11,000 registered IELTS centers in Punjab." But with Canada and the US imposing restrictions, "Only 6,000 of them survive today," wrote Kudrat Wadhwa. Knowledge of English is also necessary for Indians migrating illegally to the US and Canada. The Pew Research Center estimated 700,000 undocumented Indians living in the US in 2022, but "The official government data from the Department of Homeland Securities (DHS)...reporting 220,000 unauthorized Indians in 2022." BBC. Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited the US on 13 and 14 February, during which he met President Donald Trump, "US Intel Chief Tulsi Gabbard, National Security Advisor Michael Waltz and tech billionaire Elon Musk." NDTV. When Mr Modi "dropped in on Donald Trump,.. there was none of the bear-hugging bonhomie that was on display at the White House Rose Garden in 2017. The hand-clasping bromance of 2019 'Howdy Modi' was also missing. The Indian prime minister came bearing trade concessions on Harley-Davidson bikes and Tesla cars, yet the US president met him wielding a fat stick of tariffs," wrote Andy Mukherjee. Every year top students from engineering and medical institutions leave India "with most of them not returning to India (750,000 in 2022, which went up to 1.33 million in 2024, as per the reply given by the External Affairs Minister in the Lok Sabha)." Also, 7,500 millionaires left India in 2022, 6,500 in 2023 and 4,300 in 2024 because of, "rampant corruption, poor state of urban infrastructure, high level of crime, traffic jams etc." DH. As per the 2024 Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI) released by Transparency International, India has dropped to 96 from 93 last year, out of 180 countries and territories, with a score of 38 out 100. HT. In 2024, India imposed 84 internet shutdowns, the highest among democratic countries. Pakistan recorded only 21 shutdowns, the highest ever recorded in the country. India Today. From the moment he came to power, Mr Modi "has wielded sloganeering as a tool to shape public perception - leading millions like a modern-day Pied Piper. Every election cycle, every economic crisis, and every governance failure has not with accountability but with a new slogan," such as, "Acche din, sabka saath sabka vikas, Atmanirbhar Bharat, Amrit Kaal and Viksit Bharat." DH. India regularly slams Pakistan as a terrorist state (BS) while visiting terror on its own citizens. We need a new slogan. Something like "NITI Aayog said learn English". For in and out.

Worrying math.

"India is home to 1.4 billion people but around a billion lack money to spend on any discretionary goods and services." "The country's consuming class...is only about as big as Mexico, 130-140 million people, according to a report from Blume Ventures." And, the consuming class "is not 'widening' as much as it is 'deepening'," which means "India's wealthy population is not really growing in numbers, even though those who are already rich are getting even wealthier." BBC. Partly because, "Successful corporate professionals and startup entrepreneurs are on the prowl for a new home - and, preferably, a new passport - somewhere in the West." They are buying into "'invest and migrate' programs in the US, Europe's rich neighborhoods and even the Gulf." ET. "Corporate India is riding a wave of record breaking profits," "with the profit-to-GDP ratio hitting 4.8% (in 2023-24), more than double the 2.1% recorded in FY 23." "But while corporate profits surged by a staggering 22.3%, employment grew by a meager 1.5%, leaving millions of workers out of the prosperity loop." Mint. While southern states like Tamil Nadu and Kerala have per capita incomes close to that of Indonesia, "Uttar Pradesh and Bihar are poorer than Nepal." But even in Tamil Nadu there is gross inequality between the rich and the poor, wrote Rathin Roy. CEO compensation in the IT industry has skyrocketed, with former CEO of Wipro Thierry Delaporte earning 1,702 times and CEO of Infosys Salil Parekh earning 700 times the median remuneration of workers. TOI. To mitigate the distress due to the lack of jobs, the central and state governments have rolled out a slew of welfare schemes. There are 323 Direct Benefit Transfer schemes from 54 ministries of the Central government. dbtbharat.gov.in. In addition, "The Economic Survey of 2022-23 had pointed out that as of December 2022, there were more than 2,000 such schemes run by state governments," wrote Vivek Kaul. The result of the prolific handouts is that, ""Labor is not willing to move for opportunities...Maybe their local economy is doing well, maybe it is due to various government schemes & DBTs (direct benefit transfers) available to them, but they are not willing to move," CEO of Larsen and Toubro SN Subramanyan said recently". Now President Donald Trump is forcing India to cut tariffs on imports from the US, which is going to be good for the country, according to Niti Aayog CEO BVRSubramnyam. TOI. The problem is that if the government cuts tariffs on imports it will have to cut goods and services tax (GST) on Indian products. The government lost over Rs 1 trillion in revenue in 2020-21 because of the reduction in corporate tax rate in September 2019. ET. Income slabs for personal income tax have been widened in this year's budget. ET. Lower income tax for individuals and companies, huge spending on handouts, lower collections from tariffs and, if GST rates have to be cut as well, where will revenue come from? Expenditure may need to be slashed. That will increase inequality. Worrying. 

The 'T' words.

"S&P Global Ratings...said several Asia-Pacific economies could face higher tariffs under the Trump administration, while India, South Korea and Thailand could be most vulnerable to trade retaliation." However, India and Japan are more domestically oriented economies and this could mitigate some of the effects of US tariffs. ET. Already, "India has reduced its tariff on bourbon whiskey from 150% to 100%" "a day after US President Donald Trump criticised India's 'unfair' tariffs on American goods, particularly in the alcohol sector." HT. That is lightning speed, indeed. Galvanized into action, "Negotiations for free trade agreements with the UK and the European Union (EU) are set to get a big push this week." "The UK is looking at significant cuts in import duties on goods such as whiskey, EVs, lamb meat, chocolate and certain confectionery items." NDTV. Talks with the EU are complicated by non-tariff barriers such as the CBAM. "A Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) (also known as a Carbon Border Adjustment Tax, or CBAT) is a fee or tariff levied on imported goods based on the greenhouse gases emitted during their production." Brookings. The problem with reducing tariffs on imports is that goods produced in India will become relatively more expensive unless the government reduces taxes on Indian products as well. For instance, "Taxes are the biggest component of the cost of liquor in India." "The total tax burden on liquor can vary from state to state, but it is around 70-80% of the retail price." Zolvit. It means that taxes are 4 times, or 400%, of the total cost of production and retail. Passenger vehicles with up to 1500 cc engines are taxed at 45%, higher than 1500 cc are taxed at 48% and SUVs are taxed at 50%. SIAM. Goods and services tax (GST) is levied on everything Indians use for daily living. GST on products essential for health, such as fruits and umbrellas are taxed at 12%, toothpaste and soap are taxed at 18% while ACs and fridges, essential for survival in the searing summers of India, are taxed at 28%. cleratax.in. "Tariff does not protect any country and India needs to cut tariffs for its own good, irrespective of who tells India to do so, Niti Aayog CEO BVR Subramanyam said recently." TOI. Why now? Customs duties started increasing since the budget of 2018 (FE), apparently to help Prime Minister Narendra Modi's 'Make in India' initiative so as to create manufacturing jobs inside the country (wikipedia). It was supposed to increase the manufacturing sector to 25% of GDP, creating thousands of jobs, but, instead, manufacturing fell from 16.3% of GDP in 2014-15 to 14.3% in 2020-21 and then to 14.1% in 2023-24. "No major economy has grown 8-10% without opening up of market, and India should bring down tariff on industrial goods to 10%, Prof Arvind Panagariya said in January 2021." TOI. Did the Niti Aayog advise Mr Modi that his policy was wrong? "The Aayog's intellectual timidity has made it evade serious policy questions." "Several officials view the Aayog as the Union government's public relations and event management wing than a serious policy think tank," wrote Pramit Bhattacharya." HT. So Mr Subramanyam's sudden enthusiasm for lower tariffs could be a cover up for Mr Modi's timid surrender to Trump's demands. Pure public relations. And to protect the humongous salaries received by an army (niti.gov.in) of event managers? How servile. 

Selling same as outflow.

"In a move aimed at improving liquidity in the banking system, the RBI has said that it will conduct a USD/ INR buy/sell swap auction on Feb 28 to inject Rs 860 billion into the banking system." That means a "$10 billion swap with a three-year tenor." "The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) outstanding net forward sales of the dollar have surged to $67.93 billion as of 31 December 2024 as the central bank intensified its efforts to stabilize the rupee." These swaps do not affect our foreign exchange reserves for now but will reduce our reserves in future because "the RBI is expected to repurchase the dollars in the forward market on the prescribed dates." TIE. "Despite these efforts, India's banking system faced a liquidity deficit of Rs 1.7 trillion as on Feb 20." On 7 February, the RBI cut its policy rate by 25 basis points (BPS) to 6.25% (Mint) which is expected to reduce borrowing costs for individuals and companies, increasing spending and stimulating growth. India's foreign exchange reserves fell by $2.54 billion to $635.721 billion as on 14 February. Our reserves reached an all-time high of $704.885 billion in September 2024. TOI. That is a fall of over $69.164 billion, which, along with forward sales of $67.93 billion, means the RBI has sold a total of over $137 billion to defend the rupee. When the RBI sells dollars it sucks rupees out of the banking system, forcing banks to increase their lending rates and undoing the intended benefit of interest rate cut. According to members of the Monetary Policy Committee, the reduction in policy rate does not cause an outflow of foreign currency but may cause currency volatility. Mint. But, the RBI is selling dollars to control the so-called volatility which results in a decrease of foreign currency. The result is the same. A 5% fall in the value of the rupee results in a 35 bps rise in inflation, which hurts spending. In 2024, the US Federal Reserve cut its Funds rate by 0.5% in September, 0.25% in November and by 0.25% in December. CBS. In its meeting in January 2025, however, the Fed left its policy rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.5% and signaled fewer cuts this year. CNBC. The dollar fell to $1.12 to one euro as the Fed cut rates in 2024 but has hardened to $1.02 to one euro in January 2025 as the Fed held back. In mid-2024, the yen strengthened against the dollar when the Bank of Japan (BOJ) raised interest rates for the first time in 17 years but the dollar has gained since January. usbank.com. Thus, changes in interest rates affect the values of the dollar, the euro and the yen, but, according to the MPC, the rupee is immune. Even if that were true, there was a reversion in the yen carry trade when the BOJ changed its stance on interest rates. 'Carry trade' is when investors borrow in a currency with low interest rate and invest in markets with higher returns. Investopedia. As a result of the panic in carry trade, India saw a redemption amounting to $437 million in one week in August 2024. BS. Changes in interest rates affect the value of currencies. Selling by RBI is the same as "outflow". So, why are MPC members denying it? Have they been instructed to do so? If so, by whom?  

Unorthodox may work.

"Democracy is under threat around the world," although "Elections are being held, and voters are casting their votes," "But too often, they end up electing politicians who serve only their own interests rather than those of their constituents," wrote Prof Kaushik Basu. Prof Basu is at Cornell University in the US (wikipedia) so he may be hinting at President Donald Trump. Prof Sanjoy Chakravorty is openly contemptuous of Trump. Trump has, "First, a deep antipathy for expert knowledge. Second, blatant racism. Third, a drive for territorial expansion." "But there is another version of state capture of democracies, as shown by Nazis in Germany less than a century ago." "Is this anarchy and arbitrariness of a Caligula or Nero," he asks from the safety of Temple University in the US (temple.edu). Trump called President Volodymyr Zelensky a "dictator" and immediately European leaders said Zelensky had been elected. BBC. Elections were due in Ukraine in March-April 2024, but were not held because Zelensky declared Martial law on 24 February 2022 (wikipedia) and has been ruling by decree since then. Trump officials have held talks with Russian officials to end the war in Ukraine. "Prime Minister Keir Starmer... offered British troops to help guarantee Ukraine's security as part of any peace deal, as he and other European leaders rushed to coordinate a response to Trump's opening of talks with Russia about ending the war in Ukraine." DH. Counting reserve and support staff, the British armed forces have a total of 185,980 personnel (wikipedia) and are no match for Russian forces. Starmer probably thinks that, as a member of NATO, Britain can invoke Article 5 which "commits each member state to consider an armed attack against one member state, in the areas defined by Article 6, to be an armed attack against them all." wikipedia. NATO is nothing without the US, so Starmer intends to precipitate a war between the US and Russia. What a scoundrel! Trump understands that China is the main enemy and that the US cannot confront China and Russia together. "The stakes are high for Xi, who for years has assiduously cultivated both a personal bond with his 'old friend' Putin and his country's relations with Russia." Could this be Trump's 'reverse Nixon'? CNN. "Donald Trump has recently announced his ambitious plans to take control of Gaza and transform it into a 'Riviera'." ET. This plan also means that all Palestinians living in Gaza will be resettled in neighboring Arab countries. Arab states have rejected the idea because no country wants Palestinians. But, "trying to devise an alternative plan have yet to tackle critical issues like who will foot the bill for Gaza's reconstruction - estimated by the UN at more than $50 billion - or how the strip will be governed." ET. Also, "Hamas has proposed a significant development in the ongoing ceasefire negotiations with Israel, offering to release all remaining captives in the Gaza Strip in 'one go'." NDTV. Hamas leaders know that once they lose the human shields provided by the hostages, Israel will come after them with a vengeance. But Arab nations will be worse. Much worse. Trump's unorthodox ways may force enemies to reach a compromise. But, for some unfathomable reason, European leaders want wars to continue. They are trying to stop Trump. Colonial mindset.  

Bad medicine.

"The domestic pharma industry may not be significantly impacted by potential US retaliatory tariffs as most exports to the US include low-cost, price-inelastic generics that remain in constant demand." "Indian pharma exports to the US, valued at $10 billion, mainly include oral formulations," as "India is a major supplier to the US, providing over 45% of its generic medicines, driven by an ageing population and demand for cost-effective healthcare.' TOI. Unfortunately, it's not all good news. "Generic drugs made in India are related to 54% more severe adverse events, including hospitalization, disability and death, compared to the equivalent generic drugs made in the US, a new study has found. The findings were largely driven by 'mature generic drugs' - or those that had been in the market for a long time." "About 93% of generic drugs from emerging economy countries are made in India." ET. Since these drugs have been accepted for a long time, it may have bred complacency, indifference or an attempt to reduce costs by cutting corners. "The Center for Drug Evaluation and Research (CDER), a division of US Food and Drug Administration (FDA), has expressed concern over the quality of drugs manufactured in India, asserting that it found violations at 11% of the facilities it inspected in the country, the highest in any other global region." BS. How shameful! It gets worse. Aveo Pharmaceuticals, based in Mumbai, "is manufacturing unlicensed, highly addictive opioids and exporting them illegally to West Africa where they are driving a major public health crisis in countries like Ghana, Nigeria, and Cote d'Ivoire, BBC Eye investigation has revealed." "On 5 October 2022, the World Health Organisation (WHO) announced that four cough medicines, made by the Haryana-based manufacturer, Maiden Pharma, were suspected to have caused the deaths of 66 children in the West African nation, The Gambia." They were found to contain the highly toxic poison diethylene glycol, wrote Priyanka Pulla. In 2021, injections of Remdesiver were found to cause high fever, rigors and a dramatic drop in blood oxygen levels in patients sick with Covid. "Only the Bihar regulator identified the cause." "Their testing found Cadilla's batch V100167to contain bacterial endotoxins" which can cause "life-threatening septic shock in humans," wrote Pulla. Medicines enter our bodies, as does food. And so, "In the three years leading up to March 2023, Indian authorities tested 43 million food samples. Turns out, one in four did not conform to domestic food safety laws. Of these, one in every six were either 'unsafe' or 'substandard'," wrote Sayantan Bera & Suneera Tandon. Indian companies are equal opportunity killers. Because they are never punished. Probably bribe their way out. And that has caused problems for one. "The US Securities and Exchange Commission has asked Indian authorities for help in its investigation of Adani Group founder Gautam Adani and his nephew over alleged securities fraud and a $265-million bribery scheme." BS. If India helps, Adani may have to go to the US where he may be arrested. If India refuses, the New York court could issue an international arrest warrant for him or even fine the Indian government. Very confusing.         

Economy has no innerwear.

"India is set to become a high-income country by 2047 with a projected GDP of USD 23 trillion to USD 35 trillion, buoyed by the services sector. a report has said. By 2047, the services sector is projected to make up 60% of India's GDP, while manufacturing will account for 32%, both becoming crucial drivers of economic growth." ET. That would be a miracle because, "For the past 15 years, incomes of ordinary Indians - those between the top 15% and 50% of the population - are stagnating. Over 120 mn people between 18 and 35 are neither in education nor looking for employment. The population 'employed' in agriculture is at its highest level, even as the share of manufacturing in GDP is at its lowest level in 30 years." "All of the above are markers of a failed middle-income country," wrote Rathin Roy. "India's dependence on Chinese raw materials for garment manufacturing, particularly in the innerwear segment, is hurting the domestic industry." 'Raw materials' does not mean rare earths which are very expensive to extract (wikipedia), but cotton yarn, spandex, synthetic fibers and elastic. Men's innerwear exports have dropped 24%, from $720 million to $548.28 million, women's innerwear exports have dropped 20.37%, from $627.74 million to $499.86 million, while exports of bras, corsets and suspenders have dropped 35.30%, from $95.14 million to $61.56 million, between FY22 and FY24. Mint. "India is the largest producer of cotton globally, accounts for 23% of total global cotton production." IBEF. "Today, India produces almost all the types of synthetic fibers, be it polyester, viscose, nylon or acrylic and hence we are at an advantage compared to any other nation across the world. Currently, India is the 2nd largest producer of both polyester and viscose globally." Ministry of Textiles. Why are we having to import from China if we are producing all the raw fibers? It means we are unable to produce high quality fabric. "The 2024-25 Economic Survey found that over 53% of graduates and 36% of postgraduates are employed in roles below their educational qualifications." msn.com. "Corporate India is riding a wave of record-breaking profits," and while, "companies are raking in their highest earnings in 15 years, wage growth and jobs are lagging far behind, sparking concern over rising income inequality and its impact on the economy." Mint. However, the construction industry "is expected to grow 11.2% to reach INR 25.31 trillion in 2024," and to continue growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.6% to INR 36.58 trillion by 2028. BW. Construction is highly dependent on labor, but "L&T chairman says laborers are unwilling to work or relocate for jobs due to availability of welfare schemes and a preference for comfort." "He has noted a similar mindset in white collar professionals too." HT. "India ranked 96 out of 180 countries in the Corruptions Perception Index (CPI) for 2024 as its overall score dropped a point to 38, according to a Transparency International report." "India's rank in 2023 was 93." ET. And hence, "About 10,000 millionaires have left India in the last two years, according to data on millionaire migration from Henley Private Wealth Migration report." ET. Can't make innerwear. Naked underneath.

A chain reaction.

In 2019, "US President Donald Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi exchanged warm words of friendship in Texas at a rare mass rally for a foreign leader." "The 'Howdy Modi' event was billed as one of the largest ever receptions of a foreign leader in the US." BBC. This time Mr Modi was hosted at the luxurious Blair House which is an extension of the White House itself. Mint. "Trump admitted that PM Modi is a 'much tougher negotiator' than him following discussions on a possible trade deal and tariffs with India." ET. Trump was simple and direct. He said to Mr Modi, "Here's what we're going to do: reciprocal. Whatever you charge, I'm charging." "He (Modi) goes, 'No, no, I don't like that.' 'No, no, whatever you charge, I'm going to charge.' I'm doing that with every country." ET. In addition, "The White House has posted a controversial video showing undocumented immigrants being shackled and led into a deportation flight from Seattle." NDTV. Three flights from the US carrying undocumented Indians in military aircraft have landed at Amritsar airport this month. DH. Perhaps to reduce costs, the US has tied up with three Central American countries to accept illegal migrants. "Costa Rica has announced that it will accept illegal migrants deported from the United States who are nationals of other countries, following similar agreements by Panama and Guatemala." TNIE. "Nearly 300 people, including Indians, are being held in a hotel in Panama as they wait to be sent back to their home countries after being deported by the US." Mint. These people cannot be allowed to roam free because they will try to sneak back into the US and the home countries must arrange flights to get their citizens home. "In 2023, 41,330 of the 67,391 undocumented Indians in the US, were Gujaratis." "No jobs, declining rural wages, a massively regressive tax system, have ensured an overall sorry state of the economy." The Wire. "A report on Dainik Bhaskar quotes some of the Gujarati families who spoke despite an unofficial order to not speak to the media. The father of a deported person identified as 'Aruna' told the paper on video that they were told not to speak to the media." The Wire.  Canada is also cracking down. Without mentioning Indians, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said, "We're granting 35% fewer international student permits this year. And, next year, that number's going down by another 10%." BS. "Estimates suggest that around 427,000 Indian students are currently enrolled in Canadian institutions." Most of them are determined to become citizens and stay permanently. "Nearly 20,000 Indian students have not joined their respective colleges or universities after arriving in Canada."  TOI. These students attend coaching classes for the International English Language Testing System (IELTS). But, "1.4-1.5 million students took the IELTS exam in 2023; the number dropped drastically to 200,000-300,000 in 2024. A year ago there were 11,000 registered IELTS centers in Punjab. Only 6,000 survive today," wrote Kudrat Wadhwa. Even more unemployment and pressure to flee. In Australia, "Indian students working for more than the stipulated 48 hours have come under the scanner of the authorities. There have also been reports of visas of some students being cancelled." TOI. The website of the Tamil Weekly Viakatan was blocked when it published a cartoon of Mr Modi with Trump. TNIE. The US put us in chains. Our government gags us. The world laughs at us. 

Times are changing.

"Democratic-led states and civil rights groups filed a slew of lawsuits challenging US President Donald Trump's bid to roll back birthright citizenship...in an early bid by his opponents to block his agenda in court." "More lawsuits by Democratic-led states and advocacy groups challenging other aspects of Trump's agenda are expected." Reuters. "Fourteen US states, including two governors from Trump's Republican Party, have filed a federal lawsuit challenging billionaire Elon Musk's authority as the head of the new Department of Government Efficiency or DOGE, created by Trump for his second term." HT. "But a new court filing from the White House states that the Tesla CEO isn't an employee of DOGE, adding that Musk 'has no actual or formal authority to make government decisions himself'." "Mr Trump has suggested that Musk largely answers to him." CBS. If Musk is not making any decision then the case against him becomes moot. So, "A judge...declined to immediately block Elon Musk's government efficiency department from directing firings of federal workers or accessing databases." Reuters. In the last few days Musk "shared memes elevating decades-old conspiracies about the state of the US government's gold reserve at Fort Knox." Fort Knox holds 147.3 million troy ounces of gold valued at $435 billion. The US holds 8,133 metric tons of gold in its reserves. Forbes. What if Musk finds some discrepancy? If there is less gold than thought, will the US buy gold to make up the deficit? Gold was selling at $2,913.79 an ounce yesterday. "It hit a record high of $2,942,70 last week." ET. If the US buys gold, the price may skyrocket. Will currencies fall as a result? The rupee is trading at 86.89 to one dollar this morning. ET. A weaker rupee will cause prices to rise. Already, "The rupee's relentless decline against the US dollar has intensified chances of imported inflation as well as widening of the current account deficit (CAD)." FE. However, a weaker rupee could help exports but, "Trump's threat to impose reciprocal tariffs from early April is feeding anxiety in India's export sectors from autos to agriculture, with Citi Research analysts estimating potential losses at $7 billion a year." ET. "From April-January 2024-25, India's total exports is estimated at USD 682.59 billion," while "the total imports is estimated at USD 770.06 billion." Trade deficit increased to $222.99 billion. The Statesman. We cannot afford a worsening trade deficit. If, on the other hand, Musk finds more gold than predicted, will the US sell the excess? In that case, the price of gold could plummet, slashing the price of the Reserve Bank of India's gold reserves which stand at 876.1 metric tons (wikipedia). That, in turn, will reduce the overall value of our foreign exchange reserves which stood at $638 billion as of 7 February (ET). In his first term, Trump vowed to "Drain the Swamp" (wikipedia), but may have restrained himself because he had to run for a second term. This time round he has no need to restrain himself and seems to be draining the swamp in earnest. What this will do to markets we don't know. "The Times They Are A-Changing" Bob Dylan 1964. Prescient.   

Comfortable middle class.

"Studies conducted by Lok Foundation with the Center for the Advanced Study of India (CASI), University of Pennsylvania, came up with the surprising finding that about 49% of the respondents self-identified as being middle class," wrote Prof Dipankar Gupta. Literacy levels in slums for both men and women "are higher than the national average". "It is rather curious, but once a man's monthly income exceeds Rs 40,000, there is an uptick in the entry of the woman in the job market." Because, "The household can now employ somebody else to do the crouch and grunt chores." 49% may claim to be middle class but, "In 2021-22, there were 20.9 million...taxpayers. Population estimates for the same year pegged the Indian adult population at 943.5 million...So, taxpayers accounted for only 2.2% of the voting population." TOI. "An analysis of CBDT (Central Board of Direct Taxes) data reveals that of the 79.7 million returns filed in 2022-2023, only 9.882 million had returned income of more than Rs 1 million." "The announcement by Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman in Budget 2025-2026 to make incomes of up to Rs 1.2 million per annum tax free," will reduce the number of taxpayers to less than 15 million, wrote Subhash C Garg. "The net effect of the $12 billion (Rs 1 trillion approx.) in tax cuts announced in the annual budget will probably be a 10-20 basis points increase in the growth rate in the fiscal year starting April 1, Nikhil Gupta and Tanisha Ladha wrote." "Consumers will likely use part of the tax relief to reduce debt, which has risen sharply to 52% of income now from 35% a decade ago." DH. "The jobless rate for graduates was 29.1%, almost nine times higher than the 3.4% for those who can't read or write, a new ILO report on India's labor market showed." BS. "The Economic Survey 2024-25 suggested that India will also need to create 7.85 million new non-farm jobs annually, achieve 100% literacy, develop the quality of our educational institutions and develop high-quality, future-ready infrastructure at scale and speed." ET. Chairman of Larsen & Tubro (L&T) said recently that "Indian workers, including techies, are hesitant to move for jobs, creating challenges for industry." ET. He also said that "laborers are unwilling to work or relocate for jobs due to the availability of welfare schemes and a preference for comfort." HT. "Rather than promoting them to be a part of the mainstream of the society by contributing to the development of the nation, are we not creating a class of parasites?" asked Justices BR Gavai and AG Masih of the Supreme Court. NDTV. Less than 15 million pay income tax, 29.1% of graduates have no jobs, but monthly income of over Rs 40,000 needed to employ a maid and so 49% are middle class. If laborers are relaxing at home on freebies they are entitled to consider themselves middle class. Just increase the amount of freebies and they will be rich. No other country has thought of becoming rich in this way. Only India. Ingenious.  

Let them land at home.

The first batch of 104 illegal Indian immigrants deported from the US landed at Amritsar airport on 05 February. Of these 33 were from Gujarat and Haryana and 30 were from Punjab. "A video shared by the US Border Patrol showed the migrants being handcuffed and their legs shackled as they were forced to do a shuffled walk which is more commonly associated with hardened criminals." NDTV. Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited the US from 12-14 February (FE) where he was accommodated at "Blair House - a luxurious and historic guest lodging for the dignitaries visiting the White House" (TOI). The second flight of 116 migrants contained 65 from Punjab, 33 from Haryana and eight from Gujarat while the third flight of 112 consisted of 44 from Haryana, 33 from Gujarat and 31 from Punjab. India Today. Why Amritsar in Punjab? According to the composition of migrants, it would have been morally fair for the first and third flights to land in any city in Gujarat or Haryana, while the second flight could have gone to Punjab. But, Gujarat and Haryana are ruled by Mr Modi's party, the BJP, so in a shameless unscrupulous misuse of power the flights were diverted to Amritsar to conceal the sham Gujarat model of development. "In March 2024, the International Labour Organisation (ILO) in its report stated, the youth unemployment rate" in Gujarat has risen "from 5.6% in 2000 to 6.2% in 2012 and then increasing nearly threefold, to nearly 18% in 2018 and reaching around 15.1% in 2020." BW. As proof, "In 2023, out of 67,391 Indian illegal migrants in the US, Gujaratis were 41,330." "In 2023, the average daily wage for agricultural workers, at Rs 242, was the lowest in India, and far behind that in Bihar, one of India's poorest states," wrote Prof Christophe Jaffrelot. On 21 December 2023, French officials grounded a plane carrying 303 Indians, including 11 unaccompanied minors, at Vatry airport. 276 were repatriated to India while 27, all Gujaratis, remained in France and later made it into the US. Of the 96 Gujaratis repatriated "Within months of returning home, nearly 70 of them made their way into the US, while the remaining 26...are stuck in a hotel in Sharjah." TOI. According to Pew Research, there are 725,000 undocumented Indians living in the US but "Being the source of illegal migration isn't something anyone wants to advertise, least of all officials in New Delhi whose job is to tell the Indian public that everything is going swimmingly," wrote Mihir Sharma. Meanwhile, having already broken the law by entering the US illegally, Indian migrants are striving to stay as invisible as possible. India Today. Sneaking into the richest country in the world is not a surprise but shockingly Indians are desperate enough to earn $600-$700 per month in Lebanon (The Wire), where 39 Hezbollah members were killed and 3,400 wounded by exploding pagers and walkie-talkies in September 2024 (Reuters), and whose Gross Domestic Product (GDP) contracted 28% between 2018 and 2022 and "may further contract an additional 2.3% in 2025 and 2.4% in 2026 (UNDP). The US may be logical. But, Lebanon? Are these the 'Achhe Din' (good days) (wikipedia)we were promised?