Sunday, October 25, 2020

How will it affect us?

 The United States presidential election will be held on 3 November, exactly one week from tomorrow. The entire 435 seats in the House of Representatives, which is the lower chamber in the US Congress, is up for election and opinion polls give a comfortable margin of victory to the Democrats. The upper chamber, the Senate, has a total of 100 seats of which 35 are up for election. At present Republicans hold 53 seats to 47 held by Democrats. Opinion polls project 49 seats for Democrats and 47 seats for Republicans with 4 seats up for grabs. If the Democrats can flip those 4 seats they will have a majority in both chambers of the Congress. The presidential election is decided by electoral college votes with each state assigned a number of votes according to population. California has the largest number of 55 electoral college votes followed by Texas with 38, New York State and Florida with 29 each and Illinois and Pennsylvania with 20 each. Democrat Joe Biden seems to have a solid lock on California, New York, Illinois and Pennsylvania. Whoever gets to 270 wins. According to predictions, 290 votes are definite for Biden, between 160-170 for President Donald Trump and the rest are undecided. Therefore, on 20 January 2021, we may expect a clean sweep of Democrat president, Senate and House of Representatives. However, Democrats cannot afford to lower the guard even with overwhelming predictions of victory, wrote Neeraj Kaushal. Even exit polls got the results completely wrong in 2016 when they gave Hillary Clinton a 75-99% chance of victory. On election day, polls were suggesting Clinton victory in key battleground states. However, "This time, pollsters have changed their sampling design to increase the representation of low-educated voters. But there is not much they can do about the undecided voters and non-responders." Republican and former Governor of Arkansas Mike Huckabee said that Trump supporters do not declare themselves for fear of being attacked. A man was shot dead just for wearing a MAGA (make American great again) hat. "From India's point of view, an important question in this election is how the Democrats will deal with China," wrote Seema Sirohi. India is not important for Democrats. Biden was vice-president to Barack Obama who was humiliated by China but still gave in to them. As things stand Biden will probably win. Bad luck for us.

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