Wednesday, October 14, 2020

Selective quotes are no different to anecdotes.

 "Several large studies have now examined the effects of demonetization carefully", relying on "evidence from large samples and thereby avoid biases that can result from inferences based on anecdotes", wrote Chief Economic Adviser (CEA) to the Government of India KV Subramanian. Growth rate of India's gross domestic product (GDP) was 8.26% in 2016-17, 7.04% in 2017-18, 6.12% in 2018-19 and 4.18% in 2019-20, before coronavirus hit the economy. These are accepted statistics, not anecdotes. Apparently, a study by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) found that "other economic shocks" affected India during this period. "Salient examples include the election of Donald Trump which occurred on the same day as the demonetization announcement, a rise in the global price of crude oil of 60% from January to October 2016." The price of oil fell from over $102 per barrel in 2011 to $39 in 2016 and has stayed below $60 since. Instead of passing this oil bonanza on to the economy and stimulating growth the government increased taxes and earned an eye-watering Rs 11 trillion in 4.5 years. It is to earn another Rs 2.25 trillion from fuel taxes, despite the economy contracting by 23.9% in the April-June quarter of this year. As for Donald Trump, the real GDP in the US grew at higher than 2% in 2017, 2018 and 2019, after he took office on 20 January 2017 and India's exports were growing since 2016. So, what were the benefits of demonetization? Direct tax collections and digital payments increased. Direct tax collections have increased because of addition of a 4% cess on taxes paid and surcharge of 20%-30% on high income earners. Going digital may help the government in snooping on citizens but it leaves us helpless victims to cyber criminals who are much more adept at using technology than majority of people. "Toyota Motor Corp won't expand further in India due to the country's high tax regime" "which "also put owning a car out of reach of many consumers". Nominal GDP growth in 2019-20 fell to just 7.2%, the lowest since 1975-76," wrote Roshan Kishore, leading to fall in growth of private final consumption expenditure (PFCE) and gross fixed capital formation (GFCF). "Six years of headline management should have been enough for PM Modi's government. From justifying its bizarre overnight ban on most banknotes in 2016 to defending suspiciously cheerful gross domestic product data and suppressing a not-so-rosy household survey, Team Modi has left no stone unturned when it comes to spinning a narrative in which it's doing everything right," wrote Andy Mukherjee. CEA Subramanian is clearly a loyal member of the team. Since we don't know economics he tries to fool us with selective quotes of a few studies, like blind men feeling an elephant. Should not misuse his knowledge to fool fellow citizens. Should not sacrifice self respect. 

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