Monday, October 26, 2020

Seems to be a lack of funds throughout the system.

 "The Nomura India Business Resumption Index (NIBRI) hit another post-lockdown high of 83.5 for the week ended October 25, signalling a stronger recovery during the month compared to September." "The government's second stimulus aimed at boosting consumption has been touted as insufficient. Experts argue that the Center needs to expand its expenditure, so as to cushion demand in the economy, rather than focusing solely on supply," wrote Karan Bhasin. "The latest round of stimulus measures announced by the government will have minimal impact on growth and highlight India's limited budgetary firepower, which proved to be credit negative, according to global rating agency Moody's." Stimulus should be targeted towards the poor, wrote SA Aiyar. "Meanwhile, the government should greatly increase cash handouts to the masses through MNREGA and Jan Dhan Accounts. The poor are worst-hit and most likely to spend additional cash, boosting the economy. Richer folk are more cautious and less likely to spend." However, "Consumption, the pillar that normally accounts for over 60% of GDP, is majorly reliant on spending by middle class consumers, both urban and rural." "The past few months under the pandemic's shadow have made for a multiple whammy kind of situation for the Indian middle class." "The economy had already been weakened by years of mismanagement before this crisis struck." The GDP has been falling year on year to 4.4% last year. Why? "Investment shrank by almost 3% over the year. This is despite increase in government spending by 12% last year, more than twice the growth rate of private consumption". Social safety nets have normally been targeted at the rural poor, wrote Desai, Deshmukh and Pramanik. But "the lockdown has disproportionately affected urban workers, particularly wage workers who had few assets to begin with". Absent government spending, the Reserve Bank (RBI) has stepped into the breach. "The Reserve Bank has been more accommodative than many central banks in the world according to former RBI governor Raghuram Rajan. Rajan explained that given the surplus liquidity in the system the overnight reverse repo rate at which marginal cost of funds are priced is close to 3.25% and the inflation figure has reached 7% which implies a real interest rate being close to negative 4%." This means middle class is losing money on their savings. "The RBI on Thursday completed the first ever open market operation (OMO) purchase of state government bonds worth Rs 10,000 crore (Rs 100 billion) with two states -- Karnataka and Maharashtra -- accounting for half the amount." Is this the first instance of monetising the fiscal deficit? High spending last year has left nothing in government coffers, the middle class is losing jobs as well as savings and the poor had nothing to start with anyway. Can we call it holistic poverty?

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