Don't tilt the earth.

Delhi suffered the worst air quality in 3 years when, "Average PM2.5 levels reached shocking averages of 488 micrograms per cubic meter - nearly 100 times the exposure limit advised by the World Health Organization - and, perhaps worse, represented a catastrophic 212% increase from pre-Diwali levels. The single highest reading? A literally eye-watering 675 micrograms per cubic meter on Diwali night (20 October)." NDTV. "India is losing sunshine." "Aerosols have reduced the amount of sunshine reaching the ground in India by about 13%, while clouds accounted for an additional 31-44% drop in surface solar radiation between 1993 and 2022, according to Sachchida Nand Tripathy, an atmospheric scientist. These patterns raise concerns for agriculture, daily life and India's solar energy ambitions." BBC. The government has decided that 20% ethanol in petrol is the right punishment for car drivers. So, a new survey by Local- Circles found that "20% ethanol mixed fuel has drastically reduced fuel efficiency and harmed engines of older cars," so that "maintenance costs have doubled in just the past two months." The Wire. "India's roll-out of fuel with 20% ethanol will hurt a vehicle's mileage by 2%-4% but is safe to use, a lobby group representing the country's automakers said." BS. Changing manufacturing lines to produce new engines with the technology to accept 20% ethanol will be expensive, increase the cost of cars, and may reduce sales and profits. As of September 2024, "there are 185 two-wheelers and 34 cars for every 1000 people in the country." Data for India. No need to consult such a tiny minority. "Ethanol burns faster than petrol, delivers about 34% less energy per unit, and is corrosive because it absorbs water. Brazil's flex-fuel vehicles (FFVs), re-engineered to run on ethanol, are built to counter these drawbacks," while "In US, which produces more than 50% of the world's ethanol, the standard is a 10% ethanol blend for which most vehicles are tweaked," wrote Anjana Menon. Producing ethanol from sugarcane requires 1,344 liters of water per liter of ethanol. "India's heavy use of groundwater in sugarcane irrigation worsens the blue water footprint," wrote Aditya Sinha. "Excessive groundwater extraction in India, over 25% of the world's total, has thrown the planet off balance, literally shifting it from its axis, says a new study. If it goes unchecked, it could disrupt the cycle of day and night and may lead to multiple crises, like food and water shortages." News18. Batteries of electric cars need to be charged with electricity. In 2020-21. 53% of India's electricity generation was from coal, down from 54% in 2010-11. "In absolute terms, coal-based power capacity jumped from 93,918 megawatts to 202,675 megawatts," wrote Vivek Kaul. Sunshine is free, so solar power should be the answer. But, sunshine depends on the weather and disappears at night, whereas the world needs electricity 24/7. Which means alternative sources must be available. So, "One study in China showed that the real cost of solar power on average was twice as high as coal, while a peer-reviewed study of Germany and Texas showed solar and wind power many times more expensive than fossil fuels," wrote Bjorn Lomborg. At least solar and wind power will not affect the earth's axis, ethanol production will. How long before the rest of the world objects? Politics is not always right.   

The India-US paradox.

"Flux in the global economy presents considerable challenges to the global macroeconomic outlook and the Indian economy is not immune," but our economy is resilient because of low inflation and strong corporate and banking balance sheets. "The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) earlier this month raised its forecast for growth in the Indian economy to 6.8% in the current year." ET. India cannot be immune to actions by other countries. "US President Donald Trump reiterated...that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi told him India will stop buying Russian oil, while warning that New Delhi would continue paying 'massive' tariffs if it did not do so." Reuters. "Between 2018-19 and 2021-22, India's oil basket underwent its first major shift." Oil from Iran and Venezuela were phased out. "The second transition came with the Ukraine war." "India's imports of Russian oil soared from 4 million tonnes in 2021-22 to over 87 million tonnes in 2024-25." Discounts on Russian oil saves $9 billion per year." BBC. "Despite narrower discounts compared to 2023, Russian oil remains one of the most economical options for Indian refiners due to landed discounts and high Gross Product Worth (GPW) margin outputs from grades like Urals." "While replacing Russian crude is technically feasible, as Indian refineries can handle diverse crude grades, the shift would be challenging, costly and risky." TOI. As a sovereign nation India has the right to do what is best for its economy and people, regardless of Trump's demands. Trouble is that both Iran and Venezuela are also sanctioned by the US. "Iran's crude oil and condensate exports have reached a new high over the past 12 months despite the imposition of 14 US sanction packages totalling 465 measures, including the toughest oil-related restrictions since 2018." AIR. "In recent years, successive US administrations have levied wave after wave of unilateral sanctions against Venezuela's oil industry. The goal is clear: to strangle the country's most important economic sector." Venezuelanalysis. Since we are complying with sanctions on Iran and Venezuela, why not Russia? Also, Indian citizens are not benefiting from the savings on discounts on Russian oil. "Petrol tax in India consists of 55% of petrol's retailing price while diesel tax is 50% of the fuel's retail value." cleartax.in. Clearly, the profits are going into the government's deep pockets. One big hurdle to accepting Trump's demand is that Mr Modi claims to be of divine origin. "After my mother died, I began to doubt whether I had biological origins, whether I was born biologically." Mr Modi wondered. abc.net.au. Can't be seen to be giving in to a mere mortal. Trump, on the other hand, feels justified in imposing tariffs on India because companies in Mr Modi's home state of Gujarat have been accused of smuggling fentanyl precursors to Mexico and Guatemala from where they are taken into the US. DH. Neither man seems likely to retreat. A classical 'Irresistible force paradox' (wikipedia)?   

From 17% to 25%.

According the the World Economic Outlook of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in October 2025, "Global growth is projected to slow from 3.3% in 2024 to 3.2% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026, with advanced economies growing around 1.5% and emerging markets and developing economies just above 4%." However, "Risks are tilted to the downside." "IMF has revised upwards its forecast for global growth in 2025 from 3% to 3.2%. India's expected growth has received a similar upgrade to 6.6%. It notes that the negative effects of Trump tariffs are smaller than anticipated. But if everything is moving in the right direction, why are prices of gold and silver hitting record highs?" asks Dhiraj Nayyar. "World trade has entered a very volatile phase as US and China - the two pillars of the global economy - clash over technology, resources and power." "The fight is no longer about exporting more or about competitiveness. It is over control of minerals, chips, energy and technology." India is squeezed by both the superpowers, wrote Ajay Srivastava. "The October 2025 update of the Brookings-FT Tracking Indexes for Global Economic Recovery (Tiger) reveals an economic landscape that seems benign in some ways, but unsettled in others." "India's economy continues to post strong growth, driven by resilient urban consumer base and high levels of manufacturing investment." But, "The challenge of creating jobs for its young and inexperienced workforce, however, has intensified following the sudden turmoil in India-US economic relations," wrote Eswar Prasad & Caroline Smiltneks. The 'Make in India' initiative was launched in 2014 to increase the share of manufacturing to 25% of GDP and create 100 million additional manufacturing jobs. "However, the GDP share of manufacturing has actually fallen from 16.7% in 2013-14 to 15.9% in 2023-24. wikipedia. "With the sector currently contributing 17% to India's GDP, the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) has reaffirmed its commitment to achieving the long-standing target of 25% of GDP share for manufacturing, a critical step towards India's goal of becoming a global manufacturing powerhouse." pib.gov.in. "Over the next decade, the US economy will face two big challenges: higher interest rates and AI-generated disruption." It will be tempting to keep interest rates lower than market level, known as 'yield-curve control' but this could create a zombie economy, as happened to Japan, wrote Allison Schrager. On the other hand, Prof Nouriel Roubini is very optimistic about America's future. "The country is ahead of everyone - including China - in most of the revolutionary innovations [such as artificial intelligence] that will define the future. Accordingly, its potential annual growth is likely to rise from 2% to 4% by the end of the decade, before rising much higher in the 2030s." Will the US harness AI to reach another level while we are trying to manufacture widgets? Only till 25%.       

Was it a brilliant decision?

"This Dhanteras (a celebration of renewal before Diwali), trade across the country is expected to cross Rs 1 trillion, with gold and silver alone accounting for more than Rs 600 billion, according to the Confederation of All India Traders (CAIT)." "Gold prices have jumped from around Rs 80,000 per 10 grams last year to over Rs 1,30,000 this year, an increase of about 60%. At the same time, silver has also risen sharply from 98,000 per kilogram in 2024 to Rs 1,80,000, showing a 55% increase." TOI. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman and IT & Railways Minister Ashwini Vaishnaw outlined the benefits of cuts in rates of the goods and services tax (GST). While Two-wheeler sales reached 2.16 million units, "Passenger vehicle dispatches alone stood at 372,000 units in September, driven by a flurry of buying in just the last nine days of the month." ET. The new GST rates came into effect on 22 September 2025, with the number of rates cut to two rates of 5% and 18%. static.pib.gov.in. The jump in sales after 22 September was probably because, "Sales growth across products from cars to footwear has slumped to a decade low, excluding the Covid lockdown period, in the past month since the GST rate cut was announced on Independence Day (15 August), as consumers and retailers hold back purchases until the September 22 rollout." ET. Thus, the surge in spending could be due to a combination of a catch up in postponed purchases in expectation of a fall in prices and the usual festival spending. Though not the same, it is a release of pent up demand, reminiscent of 'Revenge Spending' after the shutdown during the Covid pandemic (CFI). The bulk of the sales was in precious metals probably as a hedge against the steady devaluation of the rupee against the US dollar, to a low of 88.866 on 09 October (in.investing.com), despite the valiant efforts by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to support the currency (ET). "India's retail inflation eased below the lower end of the RBI's 2-6% target range to 1.54% in September from 2.07% in August, driven by persistent cooling in food prices." Vegetable prices fell by 21.38% after a fall of 15.92% in the previous month. ET. The Wholesale Price Index (WPI) inflation fell to 0.13% year-on-year from 0.52% in August. ET. These figures show that prices are still rising compared to last year but not as fast. However, since inflation compounds year on year people get still less for their money. Household finances are weak. "One of India's structural determinants of sustained high and inclusive growth has been the resilience of household savings." Hence, "Declining financial savings, rising dependence on gold loans as well as overall indebtedness and a collapse of net foreign direct investment (FDI) do not portend a strong growth foundation for growth," wrote Ajit Ranade. Bank deposits have been lagging bank loans in the last two years, except for the first (April-June) quarter of this year. "When deposits grow slower than loans over a prolonged period, it could lead to liquidity and asset-liability mismatch challenges for the lender." Mint. A cash crunch leads to higher lending rates. So, is the explosion in spending due to a brilliant cut in GST? Or, is it only till the festivals are over? Will they tell us?     

What about water?

"First it was FAANG: Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix and Google." Then came the Magnificent Seven: "Alphabet (parent company of Google), Amazon, Apple, Meta Platforms (parent company of Facebook and Instagram), Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla." Fidelity. "Now in the age of generative AI, a new term is taking hold: MANGO - Microsoft, Anthropic, Nvidia, Google DeepMind and OpenAI." Axios. "Between 2013 and 2024, private AI investment in the US totaled $417 billion. China committed $119 billion. India's figure was $11.3 billion." "What we face today is not unlike the East India Company moment, when foreign enterprises that came to trade with us ended up ruling the subcontinent." Today, "From cloud to search and messaging to social media, we remain tethered to US platforms." "On the hardware side - servers, laptops, networking gear and semiconductors - we are reliant on China," wrote Ajai Chowdhry. US companies have money and are not shy to invest. "Google's parent company Alphabet will invest $15bn to build an AI data hub in southern India's Andhra Pradesh State." "The country's low data costs and rapidly growing internet user base have made it a hub for cloud and AI expansion for tech giants." BBC. India's "Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) gave a glimpse of its roadmap to become the 'world's largest AI-led technology services company' during its Q2FY26 investor call on October 9, as it announced plans to build 1 Giga Watt (GW) in data center capacity in India," at a cost of $6-7 billion over five to seven years, MC. "Adani ConneX - the data-center joint venture of Adani Group and US-based Edge ConneX, along with Airtel will build the infrastructure for Google's AI hub in Vizag, including the construction of a new international subsea gateway," and "The co-investment also includes new transmission lines, renewable energy projects and energy storage systems." HT. Good intentions, but China remains an obstacle. "China dramatically expanded its rare earths export controls.., adding five new elements and extra scrutiny for semiconductor users as Beijing tightens control over the sector ahead of talks between Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping." Reuters. Undaunted, "Government-owned IREL (India) Ltd will supply raw materials to private companies under the government's upcoming Rs 73 billion program for manufacturing rare earth magnets, officials told Moneycontrol." Problem is - "Data centers powering artificial intelligence (AI) in Scotland are using enough tap water to fill 27 million half-liter bottles a year," as "AI systems such as large language models (LLMs) that power OpenAI's ChatGPT and Google's Gemini require warehouses full of specialist computers," "consuming large amounts of energy, but they also use tonnes of water in their cooling systems to stop servers overheating." BBC. Worryingly, "In 1951, India was a water-rich nation. Every citizen had more than 5,200 cubic meters of water available annually. Seven decades later, that figure has drastically collapsed to less than 1,500 cubic meters. By 2050, it is projected to shrink further to around 1,200 cubic meters, dangerously close to the mark that will make the country a water-scarce nation." India Today. AI can be produced artificially, but water is natural. How can we create water? 

Financial magic.

"The IMF's October 2025 World Economic Outlook forecasts India's GDP growth at 6.6% in 2025, a slight increase from 6.5% in 2024, before easing modestly to 6.2% in 2026." Even though, "Worldwide economic output is expected to decline from 3.3% in 2024 to 3.2% in 2025 and further down to 3.1% in 2026. This drop is attributed to elevated US tariffs," but "While US tariffs have dampened external demand globally, India has weathered the impact better than many." TN. Probably because our goods exports are so small. "India's merchandise trade deficit widened to a 13-month high of $32.15 billion in September, driven by gold and silver imports and a drop in export to the US following President Donald Trump's up to 50% tariffs on Indian goods." "Goods exports to the US fell to $5.43 billion from $6,87 billion in August," while imports from the US rose to $3.98 billion from $3.6 billion. Reuters. "In Q2FY26, exports recorded 9% YoY growth vs a 7% decline in the past year." So, part of the growth could be due to base effect. "Overall, in H1 FY26 (1 April-30 September), merchandise trade deficit stood at USD 155bn vs USD 145bn during the same period last year, with exports up 3% YoY to USD 220bn and imports rising 4.5% to USD 375bn." ET.  "The Indian rupee has become the worst performing Asian currency this year, particularly in August." Foreign investors net sold Rs 238.85 billion Indian stocks in September after selling Rs 349.93 billion in August, wrote Payal Bhattacharya & Manjul Paul. The rupee fell to a low of 88.866 against the dollar on 09 October. in.investing.com. However, according to data from the NSDL, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) bought Rs 30 billion worth of shares in the secondary market as well as Rs 76 billion in the primary market  between 07 and 14 October. ET. The rupee also jumped against the dollar. "The rupee extended its gains on Thursday (yesterday) to settle at around 87.83 per dollar due to a decline in dollar index, and improved investor sentiment after heavy dollar sales by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI)." BS. "In June, the central bank had announced a phased 100-basis-points CRR cut from September to November to release about Rs 2.5 trillion ($28.3 billion)," freeing up funds "that banks must otherwise park with the central bank, boosting liquidity and typically easing short-term rates." But selling of dollars, to support the rupee, and maturing foreign exchange forwards is draining liquidity. Reuters. "The RBI has built up short dollar positions of at least $15 billion in the non-deliverable forwards market over the past two to three weeks to defend the rupee, Bloomberg News reported." ET. Amid all this incomprehensible confusion the RBI makes so much profits that it transferred Rs 2.69 trillion of surplus in 2024-25 to the government in May 2025. MC. This is financial magic. And the governor is the magician. 

A hug in time.

India and Canada took a major step forward to normalize their relationship as foreign minister S Jaishankar and his counterpart, Anita Anand, announced a roadmap comprising a slew of initiatives to boost cooperation," as "Anand, who is traveling to Mumbai as well during her first visit to India as foreign minister, was welcomed by PM Modi for a meeting as the bilateral meeting continues to thaw." TOI. Relations plummeted when former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau accused the Indian government of involvement in the fatal shooting of Canadian citizen Hardeep Singh Nijjar. CBS. Nijjar was shot to death in the car park of a Gurudwara in British Columbia on 18 June 2023. "In May 2024, the Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP) arrested three Indian nationals, who were charged with killing Nijjar." wikipedia. Accusations led to tit-for-tat expulsion of diplomats and India stopped issuing visas to Canadian citizens wishing to travel to India. Reuters. Trudeau resigned and Mike Carney was elected as the 24th prime minister of Canada in March 2025. wikipedia. However, for the first time in six years, until 5 June, Prime Minister Narendra Modi had not been invited to the G-7 summit to be held in Canada from 15 to 17 June. Bloomberg. Finally, on 6 June, Mr Modi received a call from Carney inviting him to the summit  (mea.gov. in) "but not as a participant - only as an observer" (Jawhar Sircar). The present bonhomie between India and Canada may have been forced by a 35% tariff on Canada by US President Donald Trump (The Hindu) and a hefty 50% tariff on goods from India (BBC). A thaw in relations is good but it is hard to imagine what India can sell to a country with a total population of just over 40 million people (worldometer), probably equal to the combined population of Delhi and Mumbai (census2011.co.in). Naturally, about 77% of Canada's trade is with the US, with China at 3.70%, UK at 2.40%, Japan at 2.32% and Mexico at 1.17%. WITS. Perhaps, the biggest export from India to Canada is Indians. Starting at 21,000 in 2016, the number of students migrating to Canada rose to 278,000 in 2023. Only 48,000 have been accepted this year so far. India Today. Youth unemployment rate in India was 16.028% in 2024. FRED. In an interview Ms Anand said, "We are making sure that we work together on law enforcement and security." "So, Canada is taking every step necessary to ensure the safety and security of Canadian citizens on Canadian soil." TOI. Which means, don't do that again. Mr Modi is known to be a serial hugger of men (The Quint), but he ignored Trudeau for seven days when Trudeau visited India on a state visit along with his family, finally hugging him at an official reception on the last day in India (CNN). Trudeau has moved on and was last seen hugging pop singer, the luscious Katy Perry on a yacht. NDTV. While, Mr Modi had to receive foreign minister Anita Anand because AI is eating jobs of educated Indians (TOI) and he must be wanting to export more Indians urgently. Should have hugged Trudeau on the first day itself. Ms Anand is not for hugging. 

Any peace is worth it.

"Hamas freed the last living Israeli hostages from Gaza on Monday (13 October) under a ceasefire deal and Israel sent home busloads of Palestinian detainees, as US President Donald Trump declared the end of the two-year long war that has upended the broader Middle East." Reuters. However, "Trump has said that his 20-point plan for Gaza does not guarantee a two-state solution for the creation of the state of Palestine." "While there has been a growing international recognition of the state of Palestine, with 157 of the 193 UN member states, it is not recognized by both Israel and the US." TIE. "In 1974, India became the first Non-Arab state to recognize the Palestinian Organization (PLO) as the sole and legitimate representative of the Palestinian people. In 1988, India became one of the first countries to recognize the Palestinian state." Representative office of India. The problem is, "There was no such thing as Palestinians. When was there an independent Palestinian people with a Palestinian state? It was either southern Syria before the First World War and then it was Palestine including Jordan," said former Prime Minister of Israel Golda Meir. A unified Palestinian state, with one government, seems impossible because Gaza is on the west of Israel while the West Bank is on the east. Map. There is precedence. In 1947, West Pakistan was carved out of Punjab while East Pakistan was carved out of Bengal, with India in between. wikipedia. Lasted just 24 years, as East Pakistan became Bangladesh in 1971. wikipedia. The West Bank is governed by Fatah, the party of Yasser Arafat, and Mahmoud Abbas is the president. wikipedia. Gaza is controlled by Hamas, which is an offshoot of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood, a terrorist organization, and is in conflict with Fatah. wikipedia. The 20-point peace plan promises amnesty and free passage to all Hamas members who disarm and asks "Hamas and other factions agree to not have any role in the governance of Gaza directly, indirectly, or in any form." wikipedia. Hamas can never agree to that. If Hamas members disarm completely they may be attacked by ordinary Palestinians who may blame them for loss of loved ones and hardships they had to endure. Arab states are monarchies and will not want trained terrorists on their soil. "Even as key Arab states condemned the war in the Gaza strip, they quietly expanded security cooperation with the Israeli military, leaked US documents reveal." ICIJ. Although the peace deal prohibits the Israeli army from any operation in Gaza, it does not mean that Israel will forgive those it feels were responsible for the horrific attacks on 7 October 2023. (Britannica). Hamas members will be familiar with Operation Wrath of God (wikipedia) in which the Mossad killed members of the Black September terrorists responsible for the Munich massacre of Israeli athletes. Ehud Barak, later prime minister of Israel, famously disguised himself as a Muslim woman to kill Palestinian operatives inside Beirut. Y net news. So, will the peace last? Probably not. But, it is still worth it.     

The rupee doesn't know.

"India's rupee has barely budged over the past three weeks," as "The currency has been stuck in a narrow range, struggling to break past the 89-per-dollar mark after hitting fresh lows." "The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has built up short dollar positions of at least $15 billion in the non-deliverable forwards market over the past two to three weeks to defend the rupee, Bloomberg News reported." ET. "India's external debt stood at USD 747.2 billion at the end of June 2025," with long term debt (original maturity of above one year) of $611.7 billion, the RBI said. NDTV. "India's foreign exchange reserves stood at $699.96 billion as on October 3, data released by the RBI showed." BS. Even though our reserves are less than our debt, the good thing is that the major portion of our debt is long term. However, RBI's definition of 'long term' as 'original maturity over one year' seems a little odd. "In the fixed-income market, bonds that have a maturity period of 2-10 years are considered to be medium-term bonds." Investopedia. One year maturity would be considered short term. Also, 2-11 months may have elapsed from the 'original maturity of one year' on some of the debt, which would make that part of the debt short term. Should we be worried at the addition of another $15 billion? In addition, "Companies may raise up to $1 billion or 300% of their net worth (whichever is higher), while financial sector firms regulated by RBI, Sebi, Irdai or PFRDA face no cap." TOI. All our regulators are controlled by the government, which means people linked to politicians or civil servants may register companies to be able to borrow any amount in foreign currency. Also, "Tucked in the new plan to liberalise the foreign loan regime is a move that every RBI governor in the past had resisted for the past 30 years. It deals with opening the gates to external commercial borrowings (ECB) in real-estate - an idea that the central bank had repeatedly scotched after the '97 Asia Crisis that had stemmed from foreign currency debts in properties." ET. All loans will have to be paid back with interest, so how will the RBI finance the foreign exchange outflow? From new loans? Sounds suspiciously like a Ponzi scheme  (wikipedia). "For Indian investors, this could be a reminder that keeping one's entire wealth in rupee-denominated assets could expose portfolios to risk that is often underestimated - currency depreciation." "A global allocation protects against rupee weakness," wrote Arihant Bardia. But how? Capital account convertibility, which is the ability to freely convert the rupee into any foreign currency and back, is forbidden in India. CNBC. However, rich people can invest through funds or offices in foreign countries. Ordinary people cannot. So, they buy gold. "India's merchandise trade deficit is expected to have widened to USD 28.0 billion in September 2025," "driven primarily by a sharp rise in gold imports, which nearly doubled month-on-month despite record-high prices." ET. Why are we borrowing to support the rupee? Are these the "Achhe Din (good days)" we were promised (wikipedia)? The rupee doesn't seem to know.      

Fancy stories.

On 09 October, "Afghanistan's Taliban government has accused Pakistan of violating Kabul's 'sovereign territory', describing it as an 'unprecedented, violent and provocative act'." "The allegation comes as two loud blasts were heard in the city. Pakistan had also bombed a civilian market in the border province of Patika, in Afghanistan's south-east." "Pakistan has neither confirmed nor denied that they had launched an attack inside Afghanistan." BBC. "Islamabad says militants of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) operate from Afghanistan, a charge denied by Kabul." "A Pakistani security official said a vehicle used by the leader of the TTP, Noor Wali Mehsud, was targeted in the Kabul airstrike. It was unclear if he survived." Pakistan accuses India of supporting TTP, India denies the accusation. Reuters. "A Taliban spokesman said 58 Pakistani military personnel had been killed in what it called 'an act of retaliation'." BBC. "At least 23 Pakistani soldiers and over 200 Taliban affiliated terrorists were killed in intense overnight clashes along Pakistan-Afghanistan border, the Pakistan Army said." DH. Claims and counter-claims are reminiscent of India's retaliation against the Pahalgam attack on 22 April 2025, targeted mainly against Hindu tourists  (wikipedia). On 07 May, "Indian Armed Forces launched 'Operation Sindoor' hitting terrorist infrastructure." "Our actions have been focused, measured and non-escalatory in nature. No Pakistani military facilities have been targeted." pib.gov.in. However, in September, during a cricket game against India, Pakistani fast bowler Haris Rauf made a '6-0' gesture towards the Indian crowd to indicate six Indian fighter aircraft shot down during Operation Sindoor. TOI. Not in retaliation, on 03 October, "IAF destroyed 9-10 Pakistani fighters like US-origin F-16s and Chinese JF-17s, as well as at least two special aircraft...Air Chief Marshall AP Singh said.., while rejecting Islamabad's counter-claims as 'manohar kahaniyan (fanciful stories)." TOI.  In September, nuclear-armed Pakistan signed a mutual defence pact with Saudi Arabia which "states that any aggression against either country shall be considered an aggression against both," a statement from Pakistani prime minister's office said." Reuters. US troops fled Afghanistan on 30 August 2021 (wikipedia) leaving $7 billion worth of military hardware behind. "According to a 2022 Department of Defense report, 78 aircraft, 40,000 military vehicles and more than 300,000 were among some of what was left behind." CBS News. Mutual defence pact vs $7 billion worth of arms, six Indian planes vs 9-10 Pakistani ones, 58 or 23 Pakistani soldiers vs 200 Taliban. Very confusing. Which story is most fanciful?   

Teacher to friend.

"One of the most evocative terms invoked in the lexicon of India's recent self-identity is 'Vishwaguru' i.e., the idea of India as a 'teacher to the world'." "The Vishwaguru narrative found prominence in the early years of the Modi government, especially between 2014 and 2019." However, since 2019, "Increasingly, India is being framed not as a Vishwaguru, but as a 'Vishwamitra', a 'friend of the world'," wrote Sanchari Ghosh. We may hanker to be friends of the world, but the world is rejecting Indians. "With the benefit of hindsight, it's not surprising to see the recent spate of attacks on diaspora Indians, NRIs or people of Indian origin across the globe." "So when you read about assaults on Indians today - online, offline, in the workplace, on the streets of Dublin, Melbourne or California - it feels less like an aberration and more like a revert to an old system where politesse merely deemed that one not be openly racist." TOI. But, why are Indians so desperate to migrate to other countries, despite all the hostility and expense? Why is there an American Dream, an "ideal that the United States is a land of opportunity that allows the possibility of upward mobility, freedom, and equality for people of all classes who work hard and have the will to succeed, (Britannica)," and not an Indian dream?  "According to the new Trade.gov data analysed by The New York Times, student arrivals from India dropped by 44% in August 2025 compared with the same period last year." TOI. "Students are increasingly factoring in the predictability of visas, work opportunities, and long term career pathways." After the "proposed changes to the H-1B program, including $100,000 employer fee, have triggered widespread alarm among students and families, raising serious doubts about the feasibility of pursuing education and long term career in the US." ET. The italics are intentional, to highlight the fact that these are migrants disguised as students. Two days ago, "Tension prevails at Pondicherry University after police lathicharged (caned) and used force to disperse students who staged a demonstration ...demanding the immediate suspension of faculty members on Karaikal and Puducherry campuses accused of sexually harassing research scholars and students." TOI. Police in Bhopal in Madhya Pradesh allegedly thrashed a 22 year old engineer to death for celebrating his passing out. Apparently, the policemen demanded Rs 10,000. Mint. Will the perpetrators be punished? Unlikely, very unlikely. Crimes are best denied and covered up. "From billionaires hedging for mobility and tax, to professionals seeking career flexibility, to students mapping the PR-to-citizenship route, moving to another country for a foreign passport or even foreign residencies continue to lure high networth individuals in India." ET. Apparently for increased mobility, lower taxes and better education for children. Maybe, also to keep daughters safe from being caned by the police after being sexually molested by teachers and sons from being murdered by the police for partying. From Guru (teacher) to Mitra (friend). The world doesn't want either. Neither, it seems, do Indians.       

No risk, lower profits.

"Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), India's top software-services exporter, beat second quarter revenue estimates on Thursday (9 October)." "Sales in the September quarter rose 2.4% to $7.4 billion." Profits rose 1.4% to Rs 120.75 billion," which converts to $1.36 billion at Rs 88.70 per one dollar (xe.com). "TCS's total order bookings stood at $10 billion during the second quarter." Reuters. "TCS's plan to invest up to $7 billion in a 1 gigawatt data center unit in India has sparked cautious reactions," and "pushed TCS shares down as much as 1.5%." Ruetes. "TCS has acquired 100% stake in ListEngage, a US-based full-stack Salesforce partner, for $72.80 million in cash, to boost its Agentic AI capabilities." HT. TCS reported a very respectable full year revenue of $29.08 billion in 2024, (Bajaj Broking) whereas US IT services company Accenture reported revenues of $64.9 billion in 2024 (wikipedia). "As early as 2019 - long before the pandemic and Gen AI explosion - Accenture began requiring its entire workforce of nearly 700,000 people to complete mandatory AI training." As a result, "In the 12 months leading up to August 2025, Accenture pulled in $4.78 billion in new business - a figure that surpasses the combined incremental revenue ($3.91 billion) generated by India's 15 largest IT services firms in 2024-25," wrote Jas Barda & Varun Sood. "When Microsoft first invested $1 billion in OpenAI in 2019, the deal received no more attention than your average corporate venture round." "In November (2022), the San Francisco-based startup introduced ChatGPT, a chatbot that went viral thanks to its ability to craft human-like replies to users' queries about nearly any topic." By April 2023, "Microsoft's cumulative in OpenAI has reportedly swelled to $13 billion," and it is "the exclusive provider of computing power for OpenAI's research, products and programming interfaces for developers," "which means massive workloads running on Microsoft's cloud servers." CNBC. "Over the past couple of weeks, Arattai, developed by Indian tech company Zoho, has become a viral sensation. The company says it saw seven million downloads in 'seven days last week'." "Arattai, which means banter in the Tamil language, had a soft launch in 2021." "While the app offers end-to-end encryption (E2EE) of video and voice calls, it does not currently extend this feature to messages." BBC WhatsApp does and has over 500 million users in India. The Indian government cannot directly access WhatsApp messages and "WhatsApp itself does not store message content, and it explicitly states that it cannot and does not produce the contents of user messages in response to any government request." ET. WhatsApp even took out full page newspaper ads to assure privacy in India. NDTV. Can Zoho defy the government? US companies can take risks. Indian companies can't. Not possible.  

Enjoying the frenzy.

"International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva has hailed India as a 'key growth engine' of the global economy." "India has also downplayed the impact of 50% tariffs imposed by the United States. Last week Union finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman said that the Indian economy continued to demonstrate resilience and sustainable growth, driven by strong domestic consumption and investment." TOI. As a result, "India's general government debt is expected to moderate steadily over the next decade, declining from the current 81% of GDP to about 77% by FY31 and further to 71% by FY35, according to a report by CareEdge Ratings." ET. "India may lack advanced technology, critical natural resources and perfect governance." But since 1980, "the country has averaged a real GDP growth rate of 6.3% per annum." Which means double digit nominal growth. So, "For global investors seeking long-term returns...a GDP-weighted allocation to India - around 5% - is both rational and rewarding," wrote Arvind Chari. However, "Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) have offloaded nearly Rs 2 trillion worth of equities this year, the highest ever outflow, weighing on both stocks and the rupee." "Despite this, the Nifty is up 5.3% in rupee terms, but only 1.4% in dollar terms." TOI. Even though, "According to the SEBI Investor Survey 2025, while 63% of Indian households - around 213 million - are aware of at least one securities market product, only 9.5% are actually participating. That's just over 32 million households with any real stake in mutual funds, stocks, ETFs, or bonds." BT. But, "The wall of liquidity engendered by Indian retail investors lets FPIs (and to be fair, even Indian promoters) exit profitable-but-richly-valued Indian positions and rotate funds into other avenues with better price-value equations." "Indian equities trade at price-earnings multiples that are among the highest in the world, at par with US equities (with the Nifty index trading at about 20-21 times annual earnings)," wrote Somnath Mukherjee. Indian citizens are transferring their wealth to foreigners. A lackluster secondary market has pushed retail Indian investors to initial public offerings (IPOs). "Some 79 companies raked in $11.5bn in the first nine months of 2025, while a string of other issues in the final three months of the year is expected to bring in another $10-11bn," wrote Nikhil Inamdar. "The frenzy is fun, says Mr Vivek Kaul, and a game of perceptions and hype, but 'not for turning a modest investment into lasting financial security'." Two successful IPOs provide a picture of our job market, wrote Andy Mukherjee. Urban Company "offers cleaning and pest control, handyman support, appliance repair, and beauty and grooming," while Physicswallah gives lessons to 16-17 year-old high school students "cramming for engineering and medical school exams" on YouTube. "At the current labor force participation rate of 60%, the number of jobseekers would go up by 1.3% each year, while the current GDP growth of 6.5% can only absorb a 1% increase." "Only an extraordinary 12%-plus GDP expansion would clear the backlog over 10 years, says Chetan Ahya." That explains why only 9.5% of households are betting against FPIs. They have guts.      

Total debt of $337.7 trillion.

Yesterday, "United Kingdom Prime Minister Keir Starmer...arrived in Mumbai for a two day visit to India." "The visit will include high-level discussions to strengthen the UK-India Comprehensive Strategic Partnership and review the Vision 2035 Roadmap  for bilateral cooperation." TOI. A large number of Indians are waiting only for Scotch whiskey to get cheaper, even if by just Rs 300 per bottle. HT. Starmer needs to divert people's attention from himself. "A year ago, Keir Starmer's Labour Party won the largest majority in Parliament this century," but "Now, after 15 months in power, Starmer has become the most unpopular British Prime Minister on record." "Just 13% of voters say they are satisfied with Starmer, while 79% are unsatisfied." CNN. But at least, in September, "Major US tech firms have pledged tens of billions of pounds worth of investments in the UK," "The biggest single investment comes from Microsoft, which has announced a $30 billion spending package - its largest ever outside the US." BBC. The UK is a small country with a population of just about 70 million (worldometer) and a few thousand jobs will help raise the economy and Starmer's fortunes. Not so lucky is French President Emmanuel Macron who was asked by his first prime minister to resign. "The intervention by Edouard Philippe - President Macron's longest-serving prime minister from 2017 to 2020 - came as frustration grew even within the president's own camp over the biggest domestic political crisis of his eight years in office." abc.net.au. "France is facing further political chaos after the country's latest prime minister, Sebastien Lecornu, resigned after just 26 days in the role." "Lecornu was only appointed in September after Francois Bayrou's government collapsed when MPs refused to back his budget. Bayrou was himself installed after Michel Barnier was ousted last December." BBC. An amusing episode of musical chairs for us, but not for the French. Macron's second term does not end till 13 May 2027 and already a long list of politicians have declared their intention to run for the post. Wikipedia. Macron created his own misfortune by dissolving the National Assembly and calling a snap general election in 2024, in which he lost his majority in parliament. wikipedia. Unfortunately, when your luck is bad, you are not only asked to quit, but also get slapped by your wife in full view of cameras. TOI. A risk you take when you marry a school teacher. Macron said they were joking. Economic trouble is not limited to France and Britain. The global debt has hit a record high of $337.7 trillion according to the Institute of International Finance (ET), almost three times the total GDP of the world at $113.23 trillion  (World Population Review). Can the world go bankrupt? Hope Scotch whiskey gets cheaper soon. 
 

Blank screen crime.

"Murder cases dipped by around 3% in 2023 compared to 2022, compared to data released by the National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB)." Gross numbers are not enough. What we want to know is how many cases succeeded in conviction and how they were punished. "A staggering 1,217 lives were lost daily in accidents in 2023, an increase of around 3% over the previous year." TOI. Probably because of an absence of traffic police on our roads. In September 2024, "A biker died after he crashed into a car driven on the wrong side of the road in Gurugram." NDTV. On the other hand, in June 2025, the Himachal Pradesh High Court exonerated a car driver involved in a fatal accident, "noting that the car was being driven on the correct side of the road, but the motorcycle had suddenly appeared from the wrong side of the highway at an intersection." livelaw.in. Still no police and people still driving recklessly. However, "When the screen at Prime Minister Modi's rally in Banswara went dark for ten minutes, the fallout was swift: Rajasthan's infotech secretary Archana Singh lost her job." But, for years taxpayers have been penalized billions of rupees for late payment because of faults in the portals run by the Finance Ministry preventing people from paying on time. No one has been punished till date, wrote Dilip Cherian. Ten minutes of blather is more important than citizens' lives. The Vidhi Centre for Legal Policy's State of the System reveals "there are 7,305 crimes that one may be prosecuted for, across 370 laws." "A wide range of laws criminalize simple acts of non-compliance: filing documents late, failing to maintain records or inadvertently failing to facilitate a public official." Trivial they maybe, but they "attract the harshest punishments, including imprisonment." TOI. Recently a 22-year-old college student died when she fell off her two-wheeler while trying to avoid a pothole in Bengaluru. News18. No one held responsible. The Indian bureaucracy hides its incompetence behind a plethora of documents. "The State took it upon itself to categorise the population as 'eligible' and 'ineligible'; after all, corruption enables the 'ineligible' beneficiary to access the State. But to achieve this goal, the bureaucracy appropriated the power to verify its own documents, casting suspicion both on its documents and, rather conveniently, on those in possession of these documents," wrote Yamini Aiyar. Cybercrimes rose 31% in 2023 to 86,420 registered cases from 66,381. TOI. Indians are easy to scam just by imitating a government official over the phone, wrote Partha Sinha. "You haven't committed a crime, but the voice implies you probably have. Something ancient in your spine activates. A lifetime of bureaucratic conditioning kicks in." "As Ashis Nandy observed, colonial power in India wasn't dismantled - it was domesticated. The Viceroy became the Collector. The Queen's English morphed into affidavit Hindi. But the emotional dread stayed perfectly intact." Indians scammed and criminalized. Blank screen unacceptable.   

Why are Indian-Americans silent?

"A bureaucrat who works closely with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, recently said that the government was actively encouraging overseas Indians to return and contribute to nation building." But, "The government's own data shows that over half a million Indians have renounced their citizenship since 2020. Separately, India is among the top five countries globally seeing a flight of millionaires, who are taking up citizenship or residency elsewhere." BBC. An IT professional who worked in Sweden for 5 years wrote on Reddit, "I had to return back to India as I lost my job...Since then, I have been unable to find work for the last seven months." BT. If there are no jobs in India why does the government want overseas Indians to return? Probably because they want people to return with their savings and start some business here to create jobs. And, if the business fails and they lose their money, tough luck. "Youth-led protests across Asia in recent months have centered on corruption, elitism and censorship. But behind Gen-Z's anger lies something even more troubling: A staggering jobs crisis." "China, India and Indonesia have youth unemployment rates of 16.5%, 17.6% and 17.3% respectively." India expects 84 million new entrants in the coming decade. ET. US President Donald Trump has singled India out for rough treatment. He imposed 50% tariff on Indian goods (BBC), a $100,000 fee on companies for every H-1B visa application (BBC), is pushing to eliminate the Optional Practical Training Program (OPT) which was availed by Indian students waiting for an H-1B visa (BT) and appointed Sergio Gor in charge of "US relations with other Central and South Asian countries," as well as the Ambassador to India (BBC), which humiliates India as unimportant. However, Indian-Americans are silent. For the government of India, this has come as a particular shock, wrote Mihir Sharma. Congress MP Shashi Tharoor was told by a congresswoman visiting New Delhi along with a US Congressional delegation that "she had not received a single phone call from any Indian-American voter urging her to support a change of policy." ET. There may be many reasons, such as a reluctance to appear different or support for Donald Trump but perhaps the main reason is that many Indians feel rejected by a brutal autocratic state which reacts to any protest with extreme violence. Four people were shot dead and 80 injured by paramilitary forces when protesting for statehood in Ladakh. NDTV. Thirteen people were shot dead in Thoothukudy on 22-23 May 2018. Their crime? They were parents protesting against a copper factory for polluting their water supply. wikipedia. At least Gujaratis should be happy in India? Because Mr Modi has been forcibly diverting foreign companies from states like Tamil Nadu and Maharashtra and providing government subsidies to invest in Gujarat. newslaundry.com. But, even Gujarati families are paying Rs 26 million, a fortune in India, to die trying to enter the US. India Today. In reply to a parliamentary question a minister's arrogant and ignorant answer was, "India has a vibrant press and media ecosystem, which does not need validation from foreign organisations." The Wire. A brutal, arrogant government earns contempt from foreign governments and rejection from citizens. Why the surprise?  

Growth, at any cost.

"Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman...highlighted India's growing economic resilience and said that the nation is well-equipped to absorb external shocks, amid ongoing external trade tensions." We have to reach 8% GDP growth, she said. TOI. Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Sanjay Malhotra said that "India can sustain a growth rate of 7-8% over a longer period." Though "fiscally every country is stressed and lower global growth is risk for all economies," "India's macroeconomic fundamentals have continued to remain very strong, and the country has become an anchor of stability in a volatile world." ET. If the economy is doing so good why was it necessary for the government to raise the basic exemption limit for income tax on salaried workers to Rs 1.275 million in the 2025 Union Budget (pib.gov.in) as well as the "Sweeping rate reductions in the goods and services tax (GST) came into effect on 22 September" (Indira Rajaraman). Not just the government, the RBI is also doing its best to stimulate growth. On 2 October, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the RBI left its policy rate at 5.5% but reduced restrictions on banks' lending to companies. Mint. Although the US Federal Reserve reduced its Funds rate by 25 basis points to 4%-4.25% in September (BBC) the RBI is hesitant to reduce the spread between the US and Indian interest rates to protect the rupee which fell to its lowest level of 88.80 against the US dollar on 30 September (Reuters). By reducing lending restrictions on banks the RBI is nudging banks to reduce their interest on loans. "Since February, the RBI has lowered the repo rate by 100 basis points and is in the process of cutting the CRR (in phases) by 100 basis points. In response, not only have bond yields risen - from 6.4% on 25 August to 6.59% on 1 October - commercial banks, the main transmission channel, have also not reduced their rates commensurately," wrote Mythili Bhusnurmath. Yield on the benchmark 10-year GOI bonds is at 6.505% this morning. investing.com. If the government, which has the power to print money, is having to borrow at 100 basis points higher than the RBI interest rate, private companies will have to pay much higher interest on their borrowing. Since Indian banks are reluctant to lend, the RBI has increased limits to foreign currency borrowing. "Companies may raise up to $1 billion or 300% of their net worth (whichever is higher), while financial sector firms regulated by RBI (bank regulator), Sebi (stock market regulator), Irdai (insurance industry regulator) or PFRDA (pension fund regulator) (wikipedia) face no cap." TOI. In addition, "Tucked in the new plan to liberalise the foreign loan regime," is a scheme that "deals with opening the gates to external commercial borrowings (ECB) in real estate - an idea that the central bank had repeatedly scotched after the '97 Asian Crisis that had stemmed from foreign currency debts in properties." ET. If the rupee were to fall significantly many companies will default on their loans and may even go bankrupt. These are desperate, even suicidal, measures. Why, if the "macroeconomic fundamentals have continued to remain strong", as the RBI Governor claimed? Seems that the government is prepared to take any risk to shore up economic growth. Including, sacrificing the nation. Why? 

Bipartisan amid shutdown.

"With close to 70% of Indian students unable to secure admissions for the fall of 2025 intake - courtesy tighter visa norms and higher costs - many US universities are reporting nearly empty classrooms this semester." Some universities are exploring mid-year intakes. TOI. They may be valid students now but each and every one is a crypto-H-1B changeling, hoping to evolve into a permanent Green Card (wikipedia). A perfect example: Indian student Ananya Joshi completed her master's in Biotechnology at Northwestern University and then tried to hang on by joining an OPT program (uscis.gov). She was laid off and posted in tears, "America was my first home as a financially independent adult...I really appreciate the life you gave me. AMERICA, I LOVE YOU." TOI. "Financially independent", not a student. Why has President Donald Trump levied a $100,000 fee on employers for the H-1B visas? One reason is that Trump's loyal supporters, like Laura Loomer, are demanding it and "as tech companies have laid off tens of thousands of people since 2022 and the unemployment rate in computer fields has shot up, especially for recent graduates, the issue has moved to the foreground." There are about 2.3 million foreign software developers in the US. NYT. "The US Equal Employment Opportunity Commission is investigating dozens of American workers' allegations that India's biggest IT outsourcer, Tata Consultancy Services Ltd., discriminated against them based on their, race, age and national origin." ET. Discriminating against Americans in their own country should be distasteful to an Indian company with memories of the British Raj in India still fresh (wikipedia). No wonder, "The top Republican and Democrat on the US Senate Judiciary Committee...reintroduced legislation to tighten rules on the H-1B and L-1 worker visa programs, targeting what they called loopholes and abuse by major employers." Reuters. Bipartisan support against H-1B at a time when Senators could not agree on a spending bill, resulting in a shutdown of the government, with thousands of federal workers forced to go on unpaid leave (BBC). But, it's not just the US. "Canada has recorded a steep decline in the number of Indian international students receiving study permits in 2025. According to data published by ICEF monitor, there has been a 50% year-over-year decrease in study permit approvals for Indian nationals." TOI.  Several Australian universities "have placed curbs on student visa applications from Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Gujarat and Jammu and Kashmir." TOI. China has launched a K visa to attract foreign professionals which was referred to as "China's H-1B" visa by an Indian media outlet. BBC. Seems suspicious of industrial espionage. We can be forgiven for enjoying a bit of schadenfreude. Vote for this government and then escape, leaving us to suffer the consequences. Come and join us in gaumutra.   

Cheap no more.

Under President Donald Trump, "Visa (H-1B) application fees have been raised to as much as $100,000, and further restrictions are under discussion in the US Senate, causing uncertainty for firms reliant on skilled foreign talent." No matter. "Currently, 50% of Fortune 500 companies operate Global Capability Centers (GCCs) in India. These centers employ 1.9 million professionals and generate $65 billion in annual revenue. By 2030, the figures are expected to reach 2.8 million employees and over $100 billion in annual revenues." TOI. Unfortunately, the hike in H-1B fees is causing lower campus placements in India. "Domestically, IT - the mainstay of placements - has scaled back, leaving fewer openings for graduates." "Infosys plans to hire 20,000 freshers this year. Wipro is eyeing over 10,000 and HCL Tech is expected to hire over 7,000." Mint. Other nations have globally recognized brands which "represent their nations' values, aspirations and capabilities." But, "Despite our size, creativity and global reach, we have not birthed a single brand that commands global recognition," wrote industrialist Harsh Goenka. Perhaps the main reason is, "With 1.4 bn consumers, companies have found ample scale. Then why struggle with Europe's exacting standards, or the US' brutal competition, when India's tier-2 and tier-3 cities promise growth? Most Indian companies are content with 20-30% export revenue." Sandipan Roy, who has spent three decades in the US said that Indians cannot replicate the same success in India. It is the ecosystem in the US that converts them into the best version of themselves. BT. Patent filings in India have risen from 40,000 in 2013 to about 60,000 in 2023. Filings by educational institutions have gone up from 20% of total filings in 2013 to 42% in 2023 while the share of companies have dropped from 40% to under 20%. A patent should be for an invention or a new innovation of commercial value. Patents from educational institutions without increased R&D have no such value, wrote Mihir Mahajan & Arindam Goswami. The numbers are stark. "Korea spends 5% of its GDP on R&D, whereas India only 0.7%. Of this small sum, the Indian private sector contributes a niggardly 41% against Korea's 79%. Tellingly, Samsung invests 8-11% on R&D, but Reliance a paltry 0.6%," wrote Dipankar Gupta. "Training in practical skills secures employment. Academic knowledge alone may be insufficient for several tasks." "Close to 60% of India's 34mn students enrolled in undergraduate degree courses may end up in jobs unrelated to what they study in college or university. That's nearly 20mn studying subjects irrelevant to their future," wrote Prof Binay Panda. So dire is the situation that, "Forget Harvard, Oxford or Toronto. Thousands of Indian students are now packing their bags for Kyrgyzstan, Cambodia, Malta and even North Korea. The shift is driven by steep costs at home, shrinking Western visa windows and intense competition for limited seats." Zee News. They may bring back cultural learnings to make benefit glorious nation of India. Like Borat did for Kazakhstan. (wikipedia). Americans are angry at losing jobs to cheap Indian employees. Trump has changed that. At $100,000 Indians are cheap no more.     

Not much choice.

"According to the SEBI Investor Survey 2025, while 63% of Indian households - around 213 million - are aware of at least one securities market product, only 9.5% are actually participating. That's just over 32 million households with any real stake in mutual funds, stocks, ETFs, or bonds." "Risk aversion reigns: 80% of all households - and a surprising 79% of Gen Z households - prefer capital preservation over returns." "Lack of trust: Fear of fraud and loss dominates investment reluctance." BT. Perhaps, people understand more than SEBI appreciates. India's GDP growth is largely based on high capital expenditure (capex) by the government and most of that is financed from stock market taxes, said Shankar Sharma. "The real problem which I have pointed out many times in our fisc is the 'Stockmarketification' of it: we are now heavily reliant on a very volatile & short-term source of capital and are using that to fund long-dated capex. If a company were to do that, we would be shorting it," he added. "An August 2025 note from broking firm CLSA Securities shows that the share of (bank) deposits in household financial assets declined from 49.7% in 2011-12 to 38.3% in 2023-24," while "the share of household investment in equity and investment funds jumped from 12.8% to 26.8%," wrote Rajrishi Singhal. Because the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) cut its policy rate by 100 basis points in the first half of 2025 (NDTV), commercial banks have followed suit, so that 6.5% interest rate on a one-year deposit leaves almost no returns after inflation and taxes. The share of Securities Transaction Tax (STT) "as well as taxes capital gains and dividends has been increasing in the government's budget. For example, the 2025-26 Union Budget projects a 131% growth in STT collections over the actual receipts in 2023-24." Hence, the government has a direct interest in rising share prices. From 1 July to 8 September, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) "offloaded Indian shares worth Rs 1 trillion on stretched valuations, weak earnings and uncertainty over Trump tariffs. In September's six sessions so far, they have sold off stocks worth Rs 78 billion." Mint. "FIIs have pulled out over Rs 2 trillion from Indian secondary markets in 2025 so far," and "This comes on top of Rs 1.21 trillion of withdrawals in 2024." MC. And yet, "S&P Global has raised India's long-term sovereign credit rating to BBB from BBB-." pib.gov.in. Are FIIs fools? Perhaps, not. "Tamil-Nadu based logistics firm Wintrack Inc announced on X that it would cease its import-export operations in India from October 1, citing 'relentless harassment' by Chennai Customs over the last 25 days. The company claimed that officials retaliated after it twice exposed alleged bribery demands this year, leaving its business 'crippled and destroyed' in India." India Today. "Forty samples of a controversial cough syrup, linked to the death of a child in Rajasthan's Sikar district, failed quality tests over the past two years. Each time the syrup was blacklisted, the state's drug control and procurement systems facilitated the continued supply of the syrup." India Today. Indians have a healthy mistrust in the government and markets. They, however, put their trust in gold, Whatever the price. CBC. Only 9.5% Indians are investing in stocks. Perhaps, they are being pushed there. Foreigners are bailing out.  

Don't have, can't spend.

"The near 900 bps fall in (interest) rates between 1996 and 2003 marked a historic break from high interest rates of the past," and "This led to an across-the-board rise to corporate bottom lines and consequently of stock prices." This was the great Rate Bull from 2003 to 2008, wrote Adil Rustomjee. We now have a bull market due to the Systematic Investment Plan (SIP) in mutual funds. "With much of the economy locked down, 2020 is the worst year in independent India's economic history - and yet the market rises 12%." There is a disconnect between the SIP Bull and the real economy. A note - titled 1 year, $90 bn and 0% Return Later from Kotak Securities - deflates much of the hype over stock market buoyancy by pointing to low corporate earnings growth and near-zero investment returns over the past 12 months." The government perpetuates this myth because it gains from Securities Transaction Tax (STT), capital gains and taxes on dividends. "For example, the 2025-26 Union Budget projects a 131% growth in STT collections over the actual receipts in 2023-24," wrote Rajrishi Singhal. "Annual GDP growth was 9.7%, 7.6% and 9.2% in 2020-21, 2021-22 and 2023-24 and it fell to just 6.5% in 2024-25." India needs to grow at 7.5%-8% to become a developed economy and that needs private investment. But, "While the government raising its share of the capex has helped, what is still missing in the act is a sustained rise in private investment," wrote Roshan Kishore and Abhishek Jha. "Budgeted capital expenditure (capex) of the Centre rose to over 3% of GDP in 2025-26 from 1.7% a decade ago." However, "A significant portion of it has been in the form of financial transfers by way of equity infusions and loans to public sector enterprises (PSEs), state governments and other institutions." This capex is not investment in new infrastructure but is used to plug revenue shortfall, wrote Shruti Gupta. Financial Services Secretary M Nagaraju said that "corporates are better placed for investments, pointing out that they are 'enjoying strongest balance sheets' and added that financial sector should also support them." ET. "The country's much-awaited GST 2.0 reform officially kicked in on September 22, collapsing multiple tax slabs into simpler structure and handing what Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharman has described as a Rs 2-trillion boost to consumers pockets. ET. However, people need disposable cash to be able to spend. "Nearly 70% of people buying iPhones in India choose to pay via EMI. Also, a recent study found that 93% of salaried Indians earning less than Rs 50,000 a month are relying on credit cards to support their everyday expenses, with credit and EMIs no longer optional extras, they are lifelines." FE. Indian businesses are known to be unethical. According to a Reddit post, a was offered a salary of Rs 400,000 per annum "but required him to sign a bond stating that if he left the organization within three years, he would be liable to pay a staggering Rs 1 million as compensation." ET. Living on debt and investing in shares. The Sword of Damocles (Britannica). Not one, but two.