The India-US paradox.

"Flux in the global economy presents considerable challenges to the global macroeconomic outlook and the Indian economy is not immune," but our economy is resilient because of low inflation and strong corporate and banking balance sheets. "The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) earlier this month raised its forecast for growth in the Indian economy to 6.8% in the current year." ET. India cannot be immune to actions by other countries. "US President Donald Trump reiterated...that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi told him India will stop buying Russian oil, while warning that New Delhi would continue paying 'massive' tariffs if it did not do so." Reuters. "Between 2018-19 and 2021-22, India's oil basket underwent its first major shift." Oil from Iran and Venezuela were phased out. "The second transition came with the Ukraine war." "India's imports of Russian oil soared from 4 million tonnes in 2021-22 to over 87 million tonnes in 2024-25." Discounts on Russian oil saves $9 billion per year." BBC. "Despite narrower discounts compared to 2023, Russian oil remains one of the most economical options for Indian refiners due to landed discounts and high Gross Product Worth (GPW) margin outputs from grades like Urals." "While replacing Russian crude is technically feasible, as Indian refineries can handle diverse crude grades, the shift would be challenging, costly and risky." TOI. As a sovereign nation India has the right to do what is best for its economy and people, regardless of Trump's demands. Trouble is that both Iran and Venezuela are also sanctioned by the US. "Iran's crude oil and condensate exports have reached a new high over the past 12 months despite the imposition of 14 US sanction packages totalling 465 measures, including the toughest oil-related restrictions since 2018." AIR. "In recent years, successive US administrations have levied wave after wave of unilateral sanctions against Venezuela's oil industry. The goal is clear: to strangle the country's most important economic sector." Venezuelanalysis. Since we are complying with sanctions on Iran and Venezuela, why not Russia? Also, Indian citizens are not benefiting from the savings on discounts on Russian oil. "Petrol tax in India consists of 55% of petrol's retailing price while diesel tax is 50% of the fuel's retail value." cleartax.in. Clearly, the profits are going into the government's deep pockets. One big hurdle to accepting Trump's demand is that Mr Modi claims to be of divine origin. "After my mother died, I began to doubt whether I had biological origins, whether I was born biologically." Mr Modi wondered. abc.net.au. Can't be seen to be giving in to a mere mortal. Trump, on the other hand, feels justified in imposing tariffs on India because companies in Mr Modi's home state of Gujarat have been accused of smuggling fentanyl precursors to Mexico and Guatemala from where they are taken into the US. DH. Neither man seems likely to retreat. A classical 'Irresistible force paradox' (wikipedia)?