From 17% to 25%.

According the the World Economic Outlook of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in October 2025, "Global growth is projected to slow from 3.3% in 2024 to 3.2% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026, with advanced economies growing around 1.5% and emerging markets and developing economies just above 4%." However, "Risks are tilted to the downside." "IMF has revised upwards its forecast for global growth in 2025 from 3% to 3.2%. India's expected growth has received a similar upgrade to 6.6%. It notes that the negative effects of Trump tariffs are smaller than anticipated. But if everything is moving in the right direction, why are prices of gold and silver hitting record highs?" asks Dhiraj Nayyar. "World trade has entered a very volatile phase as US and China - the two pillars of the global economy - clash over technology, resources and power." "The fight is no longer about exporting more or about competitiveness. It is over control of minerals, chips, energy and technology." India is squeezed by both the superpowers, wrote Ajay Srivastava. "The October 2025 update of the Brookings-FT Tracking Indexes for Global Economic Recovery (Tiger) reveals an economic landscape that seems benign in some ways, but unsettled in others." "India's economy continues to post strong growth, driven by resilient urban consumer base and high levels of manufacturing investment." But, "The challenge of creating jobs for its young and inexperienced workforce, however, has intensified following the sudden turmoil in India-US economic relations," wrote Eswar Prasad & Caroline Smiltneks. The 'Make in India' initiative was launched in 2014 to increase the share of manufacturing to 25% of GDP and create 100 million additional manufacturing jobs. "However, the GDP share of manufacturing has actually fallen from 16.7% in 2013-14 to 15.9% in 2023-24. wikipedia. "With the sector currently contributing 17% to India's GDP, the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) has reaffirmed its commitment to achieving the long-standing target of 25% of GDP share for manufacturing, a critical step towards India's goal of becoming a global manufacturing powerhouse." pib.gov.in. "Over the next decade, the US economy will face two big challenges: higher interest rates and AI-generated disruption." It will be tempting to keep interest rates lower than market level, known as 'yield-curve control' but this could create a zombie economy, as happened to Japan, wrote Allison Schrager. On the other hand, Prof Nouriel Roubini is very optimistic about America's future. "The country is ahead of everyone - including China - in most of the revolutionary innovations [such as artificial intelligence] that will define the future. Accordingly, its potential annual growth is likely to rise from 2% to 4% by the end of the decade, before rising much higher in the 2030s." Will the US harness AI to reach another level while we are trying to manufacture widgets? Only till 25%.