Wednesday, November 11, 2026
There's no Cobol for AI.
On 5 November, Indian stocks jumped while "The Nasdaq composite index fell 5.5% after Democrats swept the US midterm elections, raising fears that new limits on data centers could slow AI spending." "Foreign investors bought $1.6 billion of Indian shares that day," because "Firms related to AI account for 16% of MSCI India's value, against 70-80% in Taiwan and Korea." "Some investors now treat that gap as protection." Mint. The IT revolution "arrived in waves, long after the initial investments. They were hard to measure in real time. Something similar is going on now," as "failure to isolate productivity gains doesn't mean they don't exist," wrote Andy Mukherjee. "As the tech advances, investors will increasingly price the expected gains into the shares of those best places to profit from it." "Official stats may not have caught up yet, but stock prices and job ads suggest the productivity boom has begun." There have been several boom and bust in technology companies. In 2000, the dot-com bubble burst. Many companies failed. "larger companies like Amazon and Cisco systems lost large portions of their market capitalization, with the latter losing 80% of its stock value." wikipedia. Today, technology companies comprise nine of the top ten companies in the world by market capitalization, with Saudi Arabian Oil Co, the only outsider at number eight in the list. Investopedia. Amazon is at number five, while Cisco Systems, which provided the hardware for internet companies (wikipedia), has been replaced by Nvidia at number two in the list with a market capitalization of $4.54 trillion, higher than India's nominal GDP at $4.06 trillion (worldo-meters). Just as the Indian stock market has gained from the crash in AI companies, Indian software companies made huge money from the fear of a global computer crash because of the 'Millennium Bug'. "It was called Y2K (Year 2000) crisis." "Most Indian programmers had learnt Cobol, an old computer language no longer taught in the US." Starting with Y2K, "Indian software companies broke into the big league, they started offering all kinds of software solutions." livehistoryindia.com. Will India break into the big league of AI? While the internet is provided mainly by companies based in the US, such as Google (datacenters.google), Indian AI companies will need to set up massive data centers in India and data centers need many gigawatts of electricity and millions of gallons of water every year (wikipedia). India lacks in land, water and electricity production. In 2024, Minister of State for Jal Shakti Raj Bhushan Choudhary stated in the Rajya Sabha that "India is one of the largest users of groundwater in the world," as "the country has roughly 4% of the world's freshwater reserves to cater to the needs of its population which is around 17% of the world's total." newsonair.gov.in. Land is finite. "India has a large geographical area overall, but not all that land is suitable for development, industry or agriculture." landbitt. com. In 2025, coal contributed 75% of our electricity production (pib.gov.in). That is contributing to air pollution, reaching life-threatening levels in the capital Delhi (aqicn.org). The intelligence may be artificial but resources are natural. They are finite. Cannot be increased.
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