Tuesday, November 03, 2026
Equalize the TFR.
"India's median age is estimated to be 29.2 years. It has close to a billion people of working age (15 to 64 years)." Mint. "The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) - a key demographic indicator - that estimates the average number of children that a woman is predicted to have in her lifetime - has dropped to 1.9 children per woman on average in India as of 2024." A TFR of 2.1 is taken to be the 'replacement level', meaning that the population is neither growing nor shrinking. Data for India. "Research this year from the Economic Advisory Council (EAC) to the Prime Minister suggests that...existing population schemes are driven by the old fears of a 'population explosion'. As a result family planning programs reward terminal methods such as surgical sterilizations." However, Andhra Pradesh has withdrawn its incentives for female sterilization and other states have stopped the two-child norm for local elections and government jobs. Chief Minister of Andhra Pradesh Chandrababu Naidu announced "Rs 30,000 for having a third child, and Rs 40,000 for a fourth, as part of the new Population Management Policy." HT. This is partly due to an aging of the population and partly a fear of delimitation of parliament (PRS), which will give more seats to northern states with high TFR, while reducing those of southern states with low TFR. Low fertility and higher life expectancy, which has increased from 41 years in 1950 to 72 years today (Data for India), has resulted in an aging population who will need caregivers, healthcare and money for daily living expenses. One solution would be to let old people work, even if part time, if they are physically fit and want to do so. If politicians are considered fit to run nations, some with nuclear weapons, when they are nearing 80 years of age (TIE), there is no reason why trained, qualified and experienced people over retirement age should not work if needed. The problem is that there are millions of young people looking for work. "When a recent jobs report revealed that more than 65% of India's unemployed youth were graduates, it was a sharp indictment rather than an endorsement of of the country's much-lauded demographic advantage." "The growing use of AI by companies, a squeezed job market and continuing layoffs have steadily narrowed their employment prospects, even as a constant steam of graduates emerges from colleges every year." TOI. In 2023, India had 200,000 operational factories that employed 18.5 million people. But, "Compared to the rigidity and discipline needed on the manufacturing floor, delivery roles offer more flexibility." And, "gig jobs offer faster earnings, more autonomy, and daily payouts, even when the overall cost to company is lower." To manage labor shortages, "The capital intensive industries in automobiles and electronics are automating their factory floors to meet the stringent demands of global clients and skipping the pain of thousands of unskilled and low-skilled workforce on factory floors," wrote Megha Mandavia. India lacks in a most precious resource - water. "India is home to nearly 18% of the world's population but only has access to about 4% of global freshwater resources, according to the World Economic Forum." "From steel mills to semiconductor fabs, no major industry can run without water." ET. No jobs, no water, and possibly a shortage of food due to fuel adulteration with ethanol (Reuters). Low TFR is good. Equalize TFR between north and south. Forget delimitation.
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