Friendly, but for how long?

"Washington blinks, New Delhi benefits," "giving Indian exporters an edge over competitors from Bangladesh (20% tariffs), Vietnam (20%), Indonesia (19%) and China (37%), one can visualise a surge that will speed up India's fast-moving economic engine," wrote Sreeram S Chaulia. Critics are saying that India has lost its strategic autonomy by pledging to give up Russian oil, but, "The reality is that access to US markets, capital, know-how and technology is far more important for the Indian economy (and job creation) than any savings from Russian crude oil discounts," wrote Tanvi Madan. That is the long-term wish, but what happens to short-term revenue for the government. "Petrol tax in India consists of 55% of petrol's retailing price while diesel tax is 50% of of the fuel's retail value." cleartax.in. In January, "India's average crude oil imports cost fell below $60 a barrel,..among the lowest it has been in five years despite...sanctions against three major crude oil suppliers - Iran, Russia and Venezuela." HT. The government may levy a windfall tax on "The three state-run oil marketing companies (OMCs)...which "posted a combined net profit of Rs 340.67 billion in the first half of 2025-26, a 269.4% year-on-year jump that exceeded their full-year profit of Rs 336.02 billion in 2024-25." HT. The government of course squeezes enormous dividends out of the public sector enterprises (PSE) it controls. It has already received Rs 526.67 billion out of PSEs in the financial year 2025-26, which ends on 31 March. dipam.gov.in. "Geopolitics and geo-economics both suggest that our choice in the new G-2 world is to partner either with the US (with which we have a lot in common, starting with democracy) or with China-Russia," and "China's expansionist and mercantilist tendencies should be both contained and reduced," wrote Surjit S Bhalla. Hence, a partnership with the US will protect us. Or, will it? In 2010, during Barack Obama, "In the last three years, the US has provided 14 F-16s, five fast petrol boats, 115 self-propelled howitzer field artillery canons," ostensibly to fight the Taliban. India Today. In 2019, Imran Khan, then Prime Minister of Pakistan, said that the Inter-Servicea Intelligence (ISI) helped the CIA to kill Osama bin Laden in 2011. DH. In 2012, Obama won re-election for his second term in office. wikipedia. In the 1971 war between India and Pakistan, which led to East Pakistan becoming independent Bangladesh, President Richard Nixon discussed asking the Chinese to attack India and, possibly, use nuclear weapons to stop Indian advance. Dhaka Tribune. Russian submarines and ships put the US, UK and Austrlian navies to flight. India Times. Besides, the deal was necessary only because Trump had imposed a reciprocal tariff of 25% unilaterally and a penal tariff of 25% for buying Russian oil. There is no guarantee that Trump won't increase the tariff if he is dissatisfied with India's pace of reforms, as he did to South Korea, wrote Swaminathan Aiyer. China is our existential enemy, the US is fickle but Russia has been our proven friend. We are paying the US for its deal. Let's deal with Russia as well. A friend in need, a friend forever.