A stranglehold on a pillory.

 "US President Donald Trump in his State of the Union address to a joint session of the Congress...said that he prefers to solve the confrontation with Iran diplomatically," but "dubbed it 'world's no 1 sponsor of terrorism', adding that...he cannot let them have nuclear weapons." HT. Fresh protests have erupted in Iran as Trump's "special envoy Steve Witkoff has said that Trump is 'curious' as to why Iran has not 'capitulated' and agreed to curb its nuclear program, as rallies have taken place at universities in the Iranian capital, Tehran." CNN. The Iranian regime cannot compromise, not because it is a matter of principle, as according to Supreme Leader Ayatoallah Khamenei, "its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes only, nuclear enrichment is a right." DH. It is the classic dictator's 'pillory' (wikipedia), wherein any loss of power could result in swift retribution and even death. In the January protests the regime issued orders to kill. "The new thing I have seen in these protests, something we have not seen before, is that starting on the night of January 8, the regime issued shoot-to-kill orders to the IRGC, the Basij and the riot police, authorizing direct fire," said journalist Fatemeh Jamalpur. As of 25 January, the Human Rights Activists News Agency claimed 5,848 confirmed killed. Fox. According to the Iran International, up to 12,000 civilians were killed and the massacre was conducted by the Iran Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) and members of the Basij militia. wikipedia. These people would be terrified of trials and executions and may rise up in revolt if the regime shows any sign of weakness. The regime is in a straitjacket. On the one hand it cannot be seen to be weak and, on the other, its economy will continue its collapse if it does not reach some sort of compromise with the US. On 19 February, the market rate for the Iranian rial was between 1, 637,000 and 1,646,500 to one dollar. The government rate is at 1.28-1.29 million rials to one dollar. A worthless currency means an inflation rate of 50%-60%, with families struggling for food, fuel and medicines. ET. In 2024, the ministry of social affairs reported 57% of Iranians suffering from some form of malnutrition and unemployment at 50%  among males between 25 and 40 years of age. wikipedia. However, it is not just the US, the regime is directly responsible for the collapse. "Late last year, Ayandeh Bank, run by regime cronies and saddled with nearly $5 billion in losses on a pile of bad loans, went bust. The government folded the carcass into a state bank and printed massive amount of money to paper over the red ink." The currency collapsed and, with it, the economy. So, what are the options for the US? Any attack would give justification for the regime to resist, either directly or by using its proxies. In 2022, Houthis in Yemen hit Saudi Aramco's oil storage facility in Jeddah (Reuters) and in 2019, Houthi drones attacked oil processing facilities in Abqaiq and Khurais in eastern Saudi Arabia (wikipedia). Any major attack on Arab oil facilities, avoiding direct attack on US or Israeli forces and inviting reprisals, could send crude prices soaring, hitting the global economy. Alternatively, the US could continue its stranglehold, almost completely cutting Iran off from the world and wait for it to implode. It would cost a lot of money but could be safer. A stranglehold on a pillory. Probably impossible for the regime.