Wednesday, October 22, 2025

Forget the impossible.

In a recent speech, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said that the country needs to grow at 8% to become a developed country, while Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Sanjay Malhota said that recent growth rates continue to be below our aspirations, wrote Niranjan Rajadhyaksha. On 01 October, "The RBI's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) revised its GDP growth forecast for FY2025-26 upwards to 6.8%, compared with 6.5% in August." ET. India is already the fastest growing major economy in the world, so can we grow any faster without overheating? Although, "India's retail inflation eased below the lower end of the RBI's 2-6% target range to 1.54% in September from 2.07% in August (ET)," the core inflation, which excludes volatile food and fuel prices (wikipedia), was at 4.2% and could shoot up if demand rises faster than supply. According to the Ministry of Finance, "the share of private consumption in nominal GDP increased from 60.2% in FY24 to 61.4% in FY25 (1 April 2024-31 March 2025)." ET. To stimulate growth private consumption has to increase and that can only happen if income increases. Which means that the private sector needs to create more jobs by increasing investment in new plants but "That will happen only when companies see strong consumer demand on the ground." A kind of 'chicken and egg situation'  (wikipedia). FM Sitharaman said, "there should no longer be hesitation for industry to invest, expand capacities, produce more in India, as the government has delivered on key reforms in taxation, ease of doing business and foreign direct investment." BS. "Foreign direct investment (FDI) plunged by over 68% to $1.1 billion in August as gross investments fell 30%, while repatriations out of India held firm." TOI. GDP may be growing fast and, "Yet, the financial foundations of Indian households, which are the backbone of both consumption and investment, are showing signs of strain. Declining financial savings, rising dependence on gold loans as well as overall indebtedness and a collapse of net FDI do not portend a strong foundation for growth," wrote Ajit Ranade. "Foreign investors see impressive things in India." "It can attract much more foreign investment, but it will not," wrote Swaminathan Aiyar. Because, "A TeamLease report found that setting up a stand-alone solar plant requires 2,735 compliances. Almost 40% of these are labor-related, although such plants employ little labor." "Reforms create losers in the short run, while benefits accrue only later." "If 6.5% growth is enough to secure re-election, why risk pursuing 8% growth that could alienate farmers, labor unions, and domestic big business?" So, numerous regulations lead to weak foreign and domestic investment, poor job creation and deteriorating household finance. 8% growth is impossible. 6.5% is fast. Worth boasting about. 

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