Services, not goods.

"India-US Strategic Partnership Forum President and CEO Mukesh Aghi...emphasized that exports are going to be a major job creator for India as the country moves towards becoming a USD 5 trillion economy." "He said creating nearly 1.2 million jobs per month is going to be a challenge, highlighting the importance of job creation." ET. "The cumulative overall exports during April-August 2024 is estimated at USD 374.33 billion, as compared to USD 350.11 billion in April-August 2023, with an estimated growth of 5.35%." Merchandise exports grew 1.14%, from USD 176.67 billion to USD 178.68 billion. pib.gov.in. "India's industrial production dropped by 0.1% in August for the first time in two years, primarily due to lower output in the mining and power sectors, along with minimal growth in the manufacturing sector." The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) "was revised down to 4.7% for July, from an earlier estimate of 4.8%." "In the 1950s, manufacturing was about 10% of India's economy. Since 2010, it has averaged about 17.7%." "The share of manufacturing has never reached even 20%." From 2004-05 to 2021-22, Maharashtra, Gujarat, Tamil Nadu and Karnataka have contributed 48% of India's factory output. "For India's share of manufacturing to reach 25% of GDP, we need the sector to expand rapidly in other states such as UP, West Bengal and Haryana," wrote Prof Vidya Mahambare. "According to the IMF, India's real GDP growth rate is expected to outperform other emerging-market economies by about 67% in FY25." "On the other hand, India has a rising unemployment rate (9.2% in June 2024 vs 7% in May 2024), 50% of graduates are unfit to be hired, and the cost of education is increasing, while the monetary reward from the job market upon graduating is plummeting to multi-year lows," wrote Shahan Sud. "The trade imbalance between India and China has widened post-pandemic. In the first five months of FY25, India's exports were only 12.4% of imports from China, down from 15.4% in the same period last year." "As global companies seek to diversify away from China, India was expected to be a prime beneficiary, offering a growing economy of similar scale." "However, Southeast Asian nations have emerged as the main winners from China's declining appeal as a foreign investment destination," wrote Nandita Venkatesan. The good news is that, "In 2005, India accounted for around 1% of the world's goods exports. In 2023, it had risen, but was still less than 2%. Over the same period, India's share of the world services exports rose from 1.9% to around 4.6%. Goldman Sachs expects India's services exports to be around, $800 billion by 2030, up from $337 billion in 2023, amounting to 11% of India's GDP." Mint. The economy may reach $5 trillion but without jobs with good salaries Indians will remain poor. Jobs depend on education. But education does not buy votes. Catch 22. wikipedia.