Wednesday, October 02, 2024

It won't be the rupee.

 "De-dollarization describes a process of moving away from the world's reliance on the US dollar (USD) as the chief reserve currency." Investopedia. "Currently, around 84% of global transactions are done in US dollars, though estimates may vary. And, "approximately 64% of the world's debt is held in dollars." "Countries facing the risk of US economic sanctions or geopolitical tensions are more likely to move away from the dollar." But, "Nearly three-quarters of US assets abroad are held by America's closest allies, and these military allies are also major holders of the US dollar. Thus, security guarantees and political affiliations drive the holding of US assets," wrote Prof MJ Vinod. The USD, Euro, Japanese yen, Pound sterling, Canadian dollar, Chinese renminbi, Australian dollar and the Swiss franc are all held as reserve currencies. wikipedia. It is notable that Canada, with a nominal GDP of only USD 2.24 trillion (IMF), provides 2.58% of reserve currencies, while China, with a nominal GDP of USD 18.53 trillion (IMF) constitutes only 2.29% of reserve currencies. Therein lies the problem with de-dollarisation. The US dollar will be defended by strong economies like Europe, the UK, Canada, Australia, Switzerland and other strong economies and almost all NATO countries, which depend on the US for their security (nato.int), while China can count on Russia, Brazil, Argentina, Bangladesh and Iran (BI). India will never accept the renminbi. In 2022, "The Government of India has made suitable amendments in the Foreign Trade Policy and Handbook of Procedures to allow for International Trade Settlement in Indian Rupees (INR) i.e. invoicing, payment, and settlement of exports/ imports in Indian Rupees." pib.gov.in. That it needs a permission from the government to trade in INR shows how the currency is controlled. As a result of strict controls, an offshore non-deliverable forward (NDF) market has developed in the INR. "An NDF contract is similar to a regular forward currency contract,..with the main difference that an NDF does not require physical exchange of the underlying physical currency. Instead, it allows the counterparties to settle in a convertible currency like the US dollar." In fear of losing control over the INR, the RBI is asking electronic trading platforms to register with it. The Wire. Dollar notes are available all over the world. "Although the amount can't be precisely tracked, the Federal Reserve Board of Governors recently estimated that foreigners held $950 billion in US banknotes at the end of the first quarter of 2021, or about 45% of all Federal Reserve notes outstanding, including two-thirds of all $100 bills." stlouisfed.org. Also, "The US further satisfies this demand with different types of investment assets being available in the dollar - everything from stocks and startups to government bonds and private bonds," wrote Vivek Kaul. India accepted the IMF's Article 8 liberalising our external payments on 20 August 1994 and, yet, a tax deduction at source (TCS) of 20% was imposed on remittances in excess of Rs 700,000 under the RBI's liberalised remittance scheme (LRS). This is a regressive step wrote former Governor of the RBI Urjit Patel. ET. Can the dollar be replaced? May be. But it won't be by the Indian Rupee. Not while we have fascism by stealth.    

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