Thursday, October 03, 2024

Depending on festivals.

 "Goods and services tax (GST) revenue growth rate declined to 6.5% in September at Rs 1.73 trillion as the rise in collections from domestic transactions as well as imports slowed. However, with the festival season ahead, collections are expected to be better in the coming months, tax experts said." HT. GST collections have been rising every year since its start in June 2017, reaching a high of Rs 2.1 trillion in April 2024, except for April to August 2020 (wikipedia), when people were dying in their millions due to Covid (BBC). The government portrays the rising collections as a sign of increasing consumption due to economic growth. However, "GST collections have been so robust over the past year or so that it has prompted the Ministry of Finance to discontinue issuing monthly press releases of the data. The reason? The high collections were breeding resentment among the public, who felt the government was collecting too much tax." The Print. Public anger is justified because GST, being a percentage of the retail prices of goods and services, has soared because of uncontrolled consumer price index (CPI) inflation. Average CPI inflation was 6.6% in 2020, 5.1% in 2021, 6.7% in 2022 and 5.7% in 2023. RI. High and rising prices will eventually erode household spending as income lags inflation. "India's economic pulse has slowed just as the festive season approaches," as "Manufacturing activity has dropped, GST collections have lost steam and domestic cars sales continue to skid." Non-performing assets (NPA) at SBI Card rose in the April-June quarter of 2024. "Provisions for write-offs rose by Rs 510 million from the previous quarter, while write-offs themselves rose by Rs 1.05 billion over the same period." Household debt has increased from 30% of GDP in March 2015 to 40.1% currently. Although this is not high per se, it is significant because India's per capita income is lower than South Africa, Mexico, Brazil and Poland. Household consumption accounts for 60% of GDP. "A household faced with an increasing burden of interest payments and no additional sources of income (or increases in income), will be forced to cut back on expenditure." Mint. As a result, "CEOs in India are confident of the recovery of the global economy over the next three years," but "confidence in their individual company's growth has declined to 68%, down from 71% last year, the KPMG CEO Outlook 2024 said." TOI. Layoffs across the tech sector continued into the second half of 2024, with several high profile companies slashing jobs as part of their restructuring efforts." ET. These are high earners. Lower down the scale, "Six migrants died after Mexican soldiers opened fire on a group of 33 migrants traveling in a pick-up truck that tried to evade a military patrol," and "Another 10 migrants were injured in the incident." "The group included people of Egyptian, Nepalese, Cuban, Indian and Pakistani nationality." Reuters. People will observe the festivals because of religious beliefs and the government will celebrate higher tax collections. But, will the festivals be joyous? For some, certainly.

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