She has got what she wanted. Now what?

The general election in Britain has shocked everyone. Just like the BJP in India last May the Conservative Party has won a narrow absolute majority when everyone expected a hung parliament. With 326 seats required for a majority the Conservatives won 331 seats, up 27 seats compared to the last parliament, Labour got 232, down 26 seats, the Scottish National Party, or SNP got 56 seats, up by 50 seats and the Lib Dems got just 8 seats, down by 49 seats, compared to the last parliament. The Tories had just one seat in Scotland, which they retained, so the gains made by the SNP were at the cost of Labour, which lost 40 seats, and the Lib Dems which lost 20, all in Scotland. The leaders of 3 parties, Ed Miliband of Labour and Nick Clegg of the Lib Dems resigned immediately, although both men had won their seats, and Nigel Farage resigned as leader of the UK Independence Party because he lost his seat. Contrast that with India where the same ugly old faces hang around for decades, begging for a back door entry into the Rajya Sabha after they lose, so that they can continue to occupy government bungalows in the center of Delhi. Political parties in India are feudal gangs controlled by families where leadership passes down from one generation to the next because of the shameless sycophancy of the members. The Congress is the prime example. The spectacular success of the SNP in Scotland is because of its socialist promises. It has promised to increase spending on the Scottish NHS by 2 billion pounds, a top rate of income tax of 50%, a mansion tax on the rich, a tax on bonuses of bankers, increased spending on welfare and cancellation of the Trident nuclear submarines. SNP leader, Nicola Sturgeon not only took 40 Labour seats in Scotland but destroyed Labour chances of winning seats in England and Wales by promising to support Ed Miliband as Prime Minister provided he agreed to all of her demands. That frightened English and Welsh voters who thought that they would end up paying for her extravagant promises. She now has to work with David Cameron who is probably as cunning as she is. Cameron could transfer the Trident base to a port in England which will destroy jobs in Scotland. He may agree to her demand for greater autonomy by transferring all tax raising powers to Scots, telling her to fund all her social schemes and then blame her if she builds up a deficit. He could even support the Scottish Labour Party to weaken the SNP. Cameron has already promised to step down after 5 more years so if Labour becomes a force in Scotland once again it will be a problem for his successor, probably Boris Johnson. He can claim to have prevented the break up of the UK. For Nicola Strugeon it could be a case of ' be careful what you wish for, lest it come true '. Very interesting.

Cut taxes to create more wealth. More wealth means more taxes.

Seems that Direct To Home, or DTH, companies have combined losses of Rs 180 billion. They have already invested Rs 280 billion and have been ordered to convert to fully digital service, costing another Rs 100 billion. Their average earning per user, or ARPU, is $3-4 per month, whereas in the US the ARPU per month is $70-100 and in Malaysia it is $25-30 per month. Even with such meager numbers they have to pay 10% of gross revenue as licence fees, which attracts a service tax of 14%, and entertainment tax according to whims of state governments. Thus 34% of their gross revenue is sucked away by governments. Why we have to pay service tax on the licence fee, which is itself a tax on us, is a mystery? Perhaps, lots of money is needed for politicians to go on ' study tours ' to exotic parts of the world as the UP MLAs did last year when they went to Europe, UAE and Turkey but Karnataka MLAs studied much harder when they went to at least 5 countries. We presume each one had a ' companion ' with him, to help him concentrate. With monotonous regularity we are told that India has to widen the tax base, which means direct taxes. An economic survey last year reported that our tax/GDP ratio is only 9%, a quarter of that in the OECD countries. Only 3%, that is 35 million out of 1250 million people, in India pay income tax, compared to 45% of the population in the US. Why, because the US is a rich country and people have more income. So, the solution is simple - to ' widen ' the tax base make people richer. How will people become more wealthy? By creating more jobs, paying good salaries. Companies will hire more people only if there is a demand for their goods or services and, in a poor country like India, demand is directly linked to the price of any product. Thus extortionate taxes raise prices, cut demand, reduce the number of jobs, which reduces the tax base. Service tax is now the highest revenue earner for the government. The recent auction of telecom spectrum makes Indian airwaves among the costliest in the world, which will result in either higher charges for customers or lower profits for companies. Delhi airport is 230% more expensive than Dubai, which has become a huge hub for Indians flying abroad, and taxes on airlines are holding back our aviation sector. It is therefore absolutely urgent for the Goods and Services Tax bill to become law as soon as possible. By combining all taxes it will reduce transaction cost and increase all India trade. There is no time to be lost. The rupee is falling as foreign funds are selling out on Indian stocks, global oil prices are rising and rising yields on government bonds means the the RBI will be unable to cut interest rates. If people become richer they will refuse to be bribed with handouts. The Congress, the commies and NGOs will lose out. They will therefore fight to the last to prevent India becoming wealthy.

RIP for globalisation?

" The dollar joins the currency war," writes Prof Nouriel Roubini. That is not really true because the US has been following a weak dollar policy since the financial crisis in 2008. First the US Federal Reserve reduced interest rate to almost 0% and, when that was deemed insufficient, it started to repurchase bonds, in what is known as Quantitative Easing. The result was a massive increase in money supply which weakened the dollar and was supposed to force banks to lend money for investment. Critics cried that cheap money would cause inflation but that has not happened so far. US inflation rate has turned negative for this year while the rate of inflation in the UK has fallen to zero, prompting legendary investor, Warren Buffet to comment," So far I have been wrong on interest rates..... It is hard for me to believe that you can drop money from a helicopter and not have inflation, but we haven't." The US economy has recovered, with unemployment down to 5.5% and the GDP expanded strongly last year, although it has cooled off in the first quarter of this year, possibly due to seasonal factors. Where the US led the Europeans were sure to follow. The European Central Bank started its own QE program in January, leading to a fall in the value of the Euro. Japan had started its own QE in 2013 which made the yen fall to 120 against the dollar. There were fears that other Asian countries will follow Japan and devalue their currencies so that their exports do not become more expensive in comparison. The Chinese government says that its exports are facing mounting pressures. Even with so much cheap money the global economy remains subdued but the flood of cheap money increased asset prices all over the world, making the rich even richer. The number of billionaires increased as share markets soared and the rich were able to borrow cheaply to increase their assets, while savers saw their wealth severely eroded by low interest rates. Yesterday, Fed Chair, Janet Yellen acknowledged that stocks are overvalued, leading to a fall in markets all over the world. Investors have turned to emerging market economies and even to small countries to get better rates of return on their money. Smaller economies have trouble handling large volumes of foreign capital. Cheap money only increases consumption, leading to inflation and asset price bubbles, especially in the property sector. This is what happened to India during the Congress decade. To deal with currency inflows the Reserve Bank has built up reserves to $344.6 billion which is good because foreign investors have started selling Indian stocks and this sudden outflow could cause the rupee to tumble. The rupee is trading at 63.89 to the dollar. When the IMF is supporting capital controls in certain circumstances why are our wise men even thinking of full convertibility for the rupee? Currency wars will lead to trade wars to greater controls. It is coming.

Instead of imitating others just take from them.

Will India become like China or Mexico economically, asks a thought provoking article. We do not want to become a brutal, uncivilised country like China, with systematic grabbing of land from poor peasants, melamine in baby milk and secret black jails to detain people indefinitely to prevent them from petitioning the government in Beijing, for justice. We do not want to become like Mexico where drug gangs have divided the country into fiefs and 43 students were killed last September after police handed them over to a drug gang on the order of the Mayor of Iguala. China achieved its remarkable growth by providing a vast army of cheap labor for industries, by releasing women from household chores by enforcing a one child policy since 1979, and by building a modern infrastructure by buying up commodities from all over the world. There were great expectations that the Mexican economy would boom after it joined the North American Free Trade Agreement, or NAFTA, in 1994 as US businesses shifted across the border to take advantage of cheaper labor. That did not happen. From 1994 to 2014 Mexico's growth rate has been a meager 2.4%, whereas it was growing by 7% from 1961 to 1970, by 6.5% from 1970 to 1975 and 6.9% from 1976 to 1981 by supporting local industries through import substitution policies. Instead NAFTA destroyed its agriculture and led to young men joining drug gangs. The US wants India to cut subsidies to farmers while continuing to pay over $20 billion of taxpayer money to its own farmers. We have enormous problems. Our roads are narrow and broken, electricity supply is dodgy, government schools teach nothing and we are high on the list of black money. The population continues to grow unchecked and hundreds of millions are born with a sense of entitlement to government handouts without any responsibility towards reducing the numbers of children they produce. But it is not just the poor who have a sense of entitlement. Our business fellows are equally dependent on government handouts in the form of licenses to exploit natural resources and contracts to exploit Indian consumers with high prices and shoddy goods. There is no research or innovation because that takes time and costs money. Lack of innovation means that our productivity is very low compared to our competitors. Chinese imports have taken 60% of certification by the Bureau of Indian Standards. Majority of women cannot or choose not to work. This is because too many children harm the health of women and never ending housework takes all the time. Poor infrastructure makes commuting to work difficult and the cost may make it unprofitable. While learning from China and Mexico we should not forget Brazil where excess of social spending is causing severe economic stress. Perhaps the only way is to exploit others, which is how the west has been so rich for so long.

Just remember to kowtow and everything will be forgiven.

Seems that a large number of financial firms have sprung up and have managed to raise Rs 2 trillion through Non Convertible Debentures and Private Placement Programmes. The Securities and Exchange Board of India, or Sebi, is looking into whether these are ways of channeling black money. The Sebi is making a fresh effort to trace bondholders in 2 Sahara companies. After 2 attempts in September last year and in January this year the Sebi has managed to find only 4,900 out of an alleged 29.6 million bondholders. Does it mean that Sahara has already paid back 95% of investors, as it claims, or that the Sebi thinks that they do not exist and all the funds raised by Sahara are simply black money invested by politicians? Yet around 7 years ago the RBI shut down Sahara India Financial Corp and it refunded Rs 175 billion to 39.4 investors. There has never been any complaint from any investor of not being paid. On an appeal by Sebi to the Hon'ble Supreme Court Subrata Roy and 2 directors of the company have been incarcerated in Tihar Jail on a charge of contempt of court for more than one year without bail or parole while Manu Sharma, convicted murderer of Jessica Lall, was freed on furlough, which is leave given to our soldiers, to get married. Aruna Shanbaug has been lying in a vegetative state for 41 years, kept alive only by the loving care of her nurses, while her rapist was out in 7 years and is enjoying life in Delhi. Perhaps, Subrata Roy will stay in prison for longer than 7 years. Who knows. Ramalinga Raju, who confessed to a fraud of over Rs 71 billion, has been sentenced to 7 years in prison and a paltry fine of just Rs 50 million. Raju will no doubt appeal and continue to enjoy an active social life for many decades to come. Have their been massive changes in how companies are governed following the Satyam fraud, as happened in the US after Enron. No. There have been some cosmetic changes but not the rigorous accounting disclosures that we should expect. Strangely, Sebi was not so vigorous against the real estate company DLF, where there was an actual complaint of irregularities in its IPO, and acted only after being chastised by Delhi High Court, spending 7 years to do so. In fact, real estate companies regularly use money, raised from investors for one project, on a completely different one. Projects are never completed on time so investors end up paying rent as well as interest on bank loans. All our top companies do not follow proper disclosure norms, their excuse being that they want to guard trade secrets. Firms have not hedged their foreign borrowing, causing the RBI some anxiety. If the dollar becomes any stronger they could be in danger of default. Still, as long as you keep saluting their lordships you can get away with virtually anything. If you are desperately unlucky and do end up in prison, for 7 years, you can always enjoy a full life on furlough.

Can journalists be completely free of bias?

Should tragedies like the Nepal earthquake be reported by the media in full detail, showing the suffering of people or is it just exploiting the misfortune of others for the sake of profit? Some people in Nepal have accused the Indian media of treating the tragedy as a TV serial. One woman writes that every seat on a plane occupied by a reporter could have been used to transport supplies or injured people. On the other hand, it was this focus on the tragedy that focused world attention and has brought in vital aid. The Chief Minister of Delhi wants the media to be put on trial for being against his Aam Aadmi Party, or AAP, whereas we think that the AAP is a stooge of the Congress and the Hon'ble Chief Minister has won elections by bribing voters with taxpayer money in his hunger for power. His policies of free water and cheap electricity will ruin the economy and his interference with Delhi Police will only increase crime. Protesters in Baltimore were called thugs by a news presenter in the US causing outrage among blacks, one asked her to use the ' n ' word instead. Apparently a study, published in the Lancet, shows that suicides are caused by depression and the rate among farmers in India are no higher than in the general population. Why are suicides by farmers, tragic though they are, made into high drama in India. Our screaming news channels have to compete for eyeballs, because without high ratings, they will earn less from commercials. So there is huge money to be made from the misery of others. Miserable news is great for NGOs whose officials lead 5-star lives on money raised for so called charity. Farmer suicides are used by the Congress for political gain, without explaining why they are so poor after 60 years of Congress rule. Moneylenders force repayment of their dues from the compensation paid out to families. Only the poor farmer with smallholdings are affected. The rich farmers with large farms are able to get loans from banks, obtain seeds and fertilisers on loan and can buy luxury goods with Kisan Credit Cards. They use suicides by poor farmers to pressure the government to waive all the money they have borrowed. Perhaps, the police should investigate whether the rich farmers are paying the poor ones to commit suicide. Farmers in western countries are rich although sheep farming in Britain is apparently not paying as it used to. Good news does not sell unless it is sensational, its value increased by envy. News channels and newspapers have to compete against social media. When a plane was forced to land on Hudson River 6 years ago the images were being flashed around the world on social media before the usual news media were even aware of it. So, hysterical reporting is here to stay. The danger is that the credibility of the media is being strained and journalists maybe in danger if seen as political stooges. Price of progress.

Can the Delhi government arrest trees?

When the top news is about a baby girl born to Prince William and Kate Middleton then it is a very quiet day indeed. Who are they? William is the grandson of Elizabeth II, the present Queen of so called Great Britain who may become Queen of England if the Scottish National Party wins a landslide in the parliamentary elections to be held on 7 May. However, India is never without news, even if some of it is hard to understand. Seems that Delhi police is keeping a keen eye on all the trees in the city. What crime have the trees committed? It is because a farmer, called Gajendra Singh from Rajasthan hanged himself during a speech by the Chief Minister of Delhi at a political rally by the Aam Aadmi Party. Why he did it is still a mystery but the Chief Minister immediately blamed the police for not climbing the tree to stop the farmer killing himself and used it to score a political point by claiming that the police should not be under control of the central government. Are police in any part of the world expected to be experts at climbing trees and how are they supposed to do so in full uniform? Perhaps the Chief Minister is not aware that rescuing people from heights is the duty of the fire service. The police have blamed AAP members for inciting the farmer to commit suicide. With each side blaming the other the poor trees, unable to defend themselves, are under surveillance. The Lieutenant Governor of Delhi has instructed the Delhi Development Authority not to install lifts or elevators in buildings which have illegal construction by the residents. Each apartment building constructed by the DDA has 4 floors and no lifts. Most of these were allotted in the 1980s and 90s whose residents are now becoming old. For those living in the upper floors climbing up and down is becoming a painful problem. Trouble is that all buildings have illegal constructions in them. Every resident has covered his balconies and owners of the top floors have constructed 3-4 rooms on the roof, which is public space. With so much extra weight on buildings the earthquake risk has increased dramatically as the foundations may not be adequate. The government should ban sale of any apartment with illegal construction unless it is removed. That will force residents to break illegal constructions, making buildings safer. A former officer of the Central Bureau of Investigation, Niraj Kumar has revealed that the criminal, Dawood Ibrahim wanted to surrender to the police but his offer was not taken up. He is now running his businesses from Karachi, protected by the Pakistanis. Naturally, lots of Indian politicians were his friends and do not want him to spill the beans. So Dawood Ibrahim remains free while poor trees are under suspicion. Isn't it fun to be Indian?

Why dost thee behold the mote in thy brother's eye?

Is corruption at the root of all violence in the world today, including terrorism? One Sarah Chayes thinks that it is. From Afghanistan to Nigeria and every country in between, she finds every country rife with corruption. The Arab Spring started in Tunisia when Mohammed Bouazizi set himself on fire in protest against corrupt municipal officials, forcing the president, Zine Al-Abedine Ben Ali to run away to Saudi Arabia. Every person in India thinks that politicians, police and civil servants are totally corrupt. Our civil servants are so used to corrupt ways that they have stopped working because of the Prevention of Corruption Act. Why have they stopped working now when the Act became law in 1988? Because they were looting with both hands during the 10 years of the Congress regime and are now terrified of being caught. Indian firms do not make proper disclosure of their accounts and practices which allows promoters to divert funds for their personal use. Our magnanimous judges dole out token punishments which makes crime a very lucrative trade. The Satyam fraud was valued at Rs 71.36 billion, shareholders lost Rs 140 billion but Ramalinga Raju, the man who confessed to the crime, has been fined a laughable Rs 50 million. Compare that with the Bernie Madoff ponzi scheme where the trustee appointed by the court has recovered around $10.5 billion to be distributed to his victims. Companies borrow vast amounts from public sector banks by bribing bankers with no intention of repaying their loans. Money is sent abroad through hawala system and then brought back as white through countries with which India has a double tax avoidance treaty. Corruption is encouraged by politicians who need money for campaigning. They will debase themselves without shame to butter their party chiefs. Perhaps, Pakistani terrorists coming into India is because of corruption. For some reason that we are never told we always give up any gains that our soldiers make by sacrificing their lives. Did our politicians sign away our sovereignty? If so, to whom and why? But is the terrorism by the Naxals a protest against corruption or is it criminal gangs taking advantage of a weak state? Veerappan could smuggle sandalwood worth millions, killing scores of policemen, because he was protected by politicians. True, corruption is endemic in poor countries but Ms Chayes suffers from the ' white-man's-burden syndrome ' when she is unable to see the enormous corruption practiced on the world by the US. The corruption in Afghanistan is coming from Pakistan, which is a client state of the US. From Vietnam to Libya to Iraq the US has slaughtered millions without any compunction or regret. Using GATT the US looted commodities from poor countries which are now refusing to conclude the Doha round of negotiations. The biggest criminal has covered itself in a coat of false righteousness. Sermons are useless.

Summer means the cuckoos are here.

The Indian stock market is falling from dizzy heights. For months Indian stocks have been among the most expensive in the world, with fellows predicting that the Sensex will reach 50,000 in 3 years. We know that the Indian market is highly manipulated by a few big players with rampant insider trading and front running. After 2008 retail investors were wary of the stock market but recently they have been investing in the Indian market through mutual funds. So, when so called experts were talking about absurd numbers was it just a trick to entice retail investors into the market so that they could sell out? The Sensex is down around 1000 points in April, down to 27,011 from 30,000 on 4 March. Company earnings for the last quarter, ending on 31 March, are down 9.33%, sales are down by 14.12%. The growth during the early years of the Congress was based on a huge growth of black money from a succession of scams, on an explosion in real estate prices due to black money and on a massive fiscal stimulus through NREGA, farmer loan waiver and the Sixth Pay Commission. The new government, which took over in May last year, could not tell the truth about the state of bankrupt government finances because of fears of total collapse in the market and the value of the rupee. Before bringing in big reforms the government has to stabilise the economy through a series of changes in restrictive laws so we can attract foreign businesses to manufacture in India, but this the Congress is determined to stop by using its majority in the Rajya Sabha. Just as the Congress was borrowing to finance its deficit Indian companies were borrowing at a furious rate. Total corporate borrowing has reached Rs 35.6 trillion from Rs 3.9 trillion in 2003-04, which is 34% of GDP. Corporate debt is 57% of revenues. Even the IMF is expressing alarm when it says," Indian corporate entities are now among the more leveraged when compared with their emerging market peers..." To control the deficit the Congress increased taxes to painful levels, which has reduced demand. Companies are sitting on excess capacity as demand has fallen and, with the burden of excess debt, cannot invest in new projects. Banks are stressed by bad loans and are reluctant to lend. The landslide victory of the Aam Aadmi Party in Delhi and of the Trinamul Congress in Bengal must not make the BJP so desperate that they come out with idiotic policies. The suggestion of charging double for guaranteed supply of electricity is terrible. It will mean that electricity companies will divert power supply only to the rich and to politicians leaving the rest of us to swelter during long black outs. Even BJP supporters will vote against it. The economy is stuttering and the market is falling but even now we are being advised to invest in stocks. It is summer, so the cuckoos are here. 

Everyone likes a good narrative.

Leaders of nations should enunciate a narrative of public policy which creates a shared identity for all citizens, writes a professor. Liberals do not like to create a collective identity because that can lead to great crimes. For instance, Pakistan's identity and hence its sole reason for existence is the destruction of ' Hindu ' India and that is why it supports the killing of innocent people through support of terrorists. But unless a narrative is clearly explained public policy becomes drowned in a cacophony of protests as is the amendment to the Land Acquisition Act, which is seen by farmers as the loss of the only assets they possess. It has been presented as necessary for building infrastructure but should be explained as an opportunity for farmers to escape from a miserable life of poverty, dependent on caprices of weather. The lurid headlines about tax terrorism against the government shows an absolute lack of any narrative of public policy. The row is about a demand for Minimum Alternative Tax of Rs 400 billion on Foreign Institutional Investors, which has been labeled as ' retrospective taxation '. But what is ' retrospective taxation '? If tax laws are enacted to tax profits made in the past, according to laws prevalent at the time, then that is wrong. The General Anti Avoidance Rules, or GAAR, passed by the Congress was seen as such. GAAR was seen as an attempt by the Congress to overturn a Supreme Court verdict on a demand of Rs 110 billion tax on Vodafone, on its acquisition of Essar Hutchison in 2007 for $11 billion. A bigger question is why did the government lose the case in Supreme Court? Are tax laws defective and if so, why? If a law is clear and a foreign business has deliberately avoided paying tax on its profits made in India surely it must be made to pay tax, with penalties, just as Indians have to pay. And since any crime is always in the past the tax demand has to be ' retrospective '. Why do foreigners scream about leaving India if they are taxed? Deutsche Bank has just paid a fine of $2.15 billion in the US and the UK for manipulating Libor rates in 2012-13. HSBC Bank had to pay a fine of $1.92 billion in the US for allowing money laundering through its branches in Mexico in 2008. Not a peep about retrospective action or withdrawing from the US. So, why do foreigners have the guts to ridicule our government and our laws? Because of the lack of a clear narrative. On one day our Finance Minister declares sternly that India is not a tax haven and on another day he is most soothing when he says that tax laws will be non-adversarial, to attract foreign investment. The solution is simple. Stop changing laws every year. Even better, stop the annual circus called ' the budget '. Write clear tax laws which will remain the same into the future. But then how will lawyers milk the system?

Will beer control global warming?

Do human beings behave like animals according to the r/k selection theory? Are they a plague on earth, as the famous naturalist, Sir David Attenborough believes, a type of virus killing mother earth or a species of parasite whose voracious consumption is sucking all the nutrition out of the planet? Some believe that humans were responsible for the disappearance of the megafauna in, what is know as, ' the overkill hypothesis '. These are not paranoid delusions by a bunch of nuts but topics of serious discussions by academics. It does seem that we resemble the malaria parasite in many ways. When malaria enters a human body it hides in the liver and multiplies. Large numbers then reenter blood and infect red blood cells. At this stage mosquitoes suck up infected blood and carry it to new victims thus ensuring the survival of the parasite. When the parasites destroy the red cells the patient gets chills and fever and may die without treatment. They withstand our immune system and develop immunity to whatever drugs we use. Humans evolved in Africa and spread out all over the earth. Mother earth tried to destroy us with smallpox, cholera and many other weapons but some survived. We developed vaccines and antibiotics which made us immune. Now we are causing fever to earth in the form of global warming, which may kill us all. The discovery of agriculture around 10,000 years ago completely changed human society from small groups of hunter-gatherers to permanent settlements and probably laid the foundation for modern civilisation, with some hiccups along the way. Some scientists believe that humans will be extinct within the next 100 years. We can see conflicts everywhere. There are several wars in the middle east, a low intensity conflict in Ukraine, repeated terrorist attacks by various groups in Pakistan and the uncivilised aggression by China against all its neighbors. Some think that the civil war in Syria started because of prolonged drought, a blob in the Pacific Ocean maybe causing drought in California and India is bracing for another weak monsoon this year, all signs of global warming. Global warming could cause an explosion of pests, resulting in serious shortages of food. Large numbers of people result in poverty by reducing the value of labor. Wealth accumulates in few hands because the rich transfer production to countries with large populations, producing vast inequality even in developed countries, like the US. If population is reduced by more than half, the value of people will rise, global warming will be controlled, inequality will be reduced and there will be fewer conflicts. Some believe that thirst for beer led to farming, which led to civilisation. Perhaps if we sat around drinking beer all day we would be live happily with all creatures. Another reason to reduce taxes on beer. Are politicians listening?

Any further left and we will be chasing our tails.

Is India heading towards collapse as we continue policies of distributing wealth which is not created but borrowed, either directly from local banks or from foreign investors? Biologists have tried to explain animal reproduction through r/k theory in which r type animals breed in huge numbers regardless of the cost to their environment, such as rodents, and k type animals who have few children and look after them for long periods, such as whales. The life history theory builds on this to explain life cycle of organisms through their reproductive value. Some conservative economists have used the r/k theory to explain human behavior. As primitive humans increased in number there was greater competition for food so the r type humans migrated out of Africa to regions where food was plentiful. They multiplied in large numbers, made poor parents, and, as competition for resources intensified, migrated even further. They left behind small numbers of k type people who had small families, made good parents and fought to establish a rich society. Economists in the US, a $16 trillion economy, want an increase in productivity to stimulate wage growth which is stuck at 1979 level, whereas here in India, a $1.9 trillion economy, the talk is of distribution to the poor without any acknowledgement that it was precisely these policies of the Congress that contributed to double digit inflation and a fall in growth rate which hurt the poor badly. The IMF has warned that without increasing productivity any growth in the economy will merely result in inflation. Mr Rahul Gandhi, Vice President of the Congress, has returned from a long vacation and has launched into the Prime Minister, calling him " suit boot ki sarkar " in obvious mockery of Modi's suits. This is a man who is an expert on the sufferings of Indian farmers, having lived all his life in a huge bungalow in central Delhi, surrounded by servants and with Z+ security. Large numbers of Indians are certainly bad parents as is shown by the number of children working in hazardous industries, children being married off in violation of the law and female babies being sold off for Rs 30,000. While cigarettes are heavily taxes and have large warnings on their packets there are no such restrictions on beedis which are smoked by the poor. States encourage beedi industry to create employment. Encourage the poor to produce beedis cheaply so that they can smoke themselves to death. When someone can actually write that " human needs can and should be limited " you see that they want Indians to remain as r type people, of little value. Imbeciles or Naxals: is that all the choice we have?

The real price of the price of land.

The brutal earthquake in Nepal has suddenly made people realise that most buildings in Indian cities will not withstand a quake, much lower on the Richter scale. Buildings in Ghaziabad have apparently been built on sand along the Hindon river and 80% of buildings in Delhi will probably collapse. The Commonwealth Games village was built on the floodplains of the Yamuna river and apartments are selling at over Rs 50 million. It is not as if warnings are not issued from time to time about unsafe buildings in Delhi but nothing has ever been done and a few weeks from now everybody will have forgotten about Nepal, except those who have suffered, and moved on. The 1993 quake at Latur in Maharashtra killed 10,000  while the 2001 quake at Bhuj in Gujarat killed 20,000 but that is nothing compared to the millions that will die if a major one were to hit Delhi. The reasons are many. The most important is the enormous rise in the price of real estate which is the only avenue for investing black money, generated by crime, humorously called scams by the press. Mr Robert Vadra, son in law of Ms Sonia Gandhi, is reputed to have made hundreds of millions by simply facilitating the use of agricultural land for building purposes, for a real estate company. At the time Haryana had a Congress government. The effect of black money maybe seen by the numbers of properties lying vacant all over India. Clearly they were bought as investments for future price appreciation. There were 331 million houses to 247 million households in 2011, an excess of about 80 million. New houses are not selling but brokers do not think that prices will fall by 75%, as they did between 1995 and 2001. Very few people can afford to buy at these prices and this is where the land mafia, with help from politicians, grab public land and build poor quality houses, without electricity or water connections, which are sold off to poorer people. These are called unauthorised colonies and politicians make them legal before elections, a process known as being regularised. Strangely our sagacious judges find nothing wrong in this blatant grabbing of public assets but came down like a ton of bricks on the Campa Cola compound residents who had been duped by builders. To maximise profits most of the land is built over, leaving very little space for roads, which means when these houses collapse emergency vehicles will not be able to enter the narrow lanes to rescue the wounded. Delhi and Mumbai have millions of migrants from other towns who have come looking for jobs. Landlords have built 3-4 additional floors on their houses and given rooms for rent. These rabbit warrens do not have proper foundations and will collapse into rubble at the slightest shaking. Can anything be done. No. Where will all these people stay while buildings are being strengthened and who will pay for them? So, nothing will be done and we will wait for mother nature's wrath, hoping that she will be gentle.

Indians: a confusing mixture of unhappiness and optimism.

Every year the United Nations releases a list of countries according to a ' Happiness Index '. India ranks a miserable 117 out of 158 countries. Switzerland comes in at number one. The index is based on seven criteria. Social support, healthy life expectancy, freedom to make life choices, generosity are probably linked to GDP per capita. With a population of 1.25 billion India has vast numbers of poor people but awareness has increased dramatically due to the ubiquity of televisions and the rising use of the internet. Young people are rejecting the frugal lifestyle of their parents and are demanding good jobs so that they enjoy the material comforts of new technology. If Indians are so unhappy why are they so optimistic? Indians had an overall score of 82.1% in optimism as opposed to 57.2% for the rest of the Asia Pacific region. On the quality of life index Indians scored 84.1% as compared to 51.7% and on expectation of employment Indians scored 78.3% compared to 54% for the rest of the region. Is it because we believe that we are right at the bottom and the only way can be upwards? Perhaps we are unhappy because we have a high perception of corruption and hence an expectation of dystopia. As opposed to utopia, ' dystopia ' is a society where life is bad due to deprivation, oppression and terror. Terror attacks are common in India with 190 IED explosions in 2014. This is because for some unknown mysterious reason we continue to hold ' constructive dialogues ' with Pakistan even though it is determined to bleed us through ' a thousand cuts '. The irony is that the US, which keeps blowing up Pakistani civilians with drone attacks, offers to mediate in the ' constructive dialogue '. But much worse than terrorist attacks is the oppression we suffer at the hands of our rulers - the politicians, the civil servants and our judicial system. In a continuation of the rotten feudal system of the past politicians have made themselves into VIPs and VVIPs. Neither they nor their families are searched at airports which allows them ample opportunity to smuggle in whatever they want. They are so lacking in any sharam or izzat in that they wanted the government not to pass laws making it mandatory to declare PAN number in any transaction involving Rs 100,000 in cash and a 10 year jail sentence for not disclosing illicit money stashed abroad. Their criminal behavior is helped by our judicial system which allows a convicted murderer, serving a life sentence, to be freed on ' furlough ' to get married because the fellow is the son of a politician ' Furlough ' is a leave of absence usually given to soldiers not to a filthy murderer. That is why we Indians are so unhappy but we are optimistic in the hope that one day the villains will be destroyed.

Militant secularism is also a religion.

So, George Washington University in the US is to ban the Swastika symbol because it ' resembles a Nazi symbol ' and the student, who is Jewish and can therefore never be a lover of Nazis, maybe expelled. Shows the mind-numbing ignorance of Americans, even college professors. The Swastika does NOT resemble a Nazi symbol. It represents Narayana and has been used by the Hindus for thousands of years. It is not our fault that the Nazis decided to use it on their flag. India was under brutal British rule at the time and Hindus could do nothing about it. The Ku Klux Klan uses a burning cross as a symbol before killing blacks and in medieval times witches were regularly burnt at the cross but the university is not banning the cross, because it may hurt the sentiment of blacks. We do not know what color Jesus was but since Israel is in Asia it is possible that he was not white. Apparently King Solomon was one of his ancestors but Ethiopian Jews also trace their ancestry back to Solomon and Queen Sheba and they are not white. Michael Walzer, a political scientist in the US has written a book called ' The Paradox of Liberation: Secular Revolutions and Religious Counterrevolutions ', in which he has analysed the strength of religion in India, Israel and Algeria, using the US as a comparative control. His argument is flawed from the beginning. The US is an avowed Christian country as shown by President Obama having to emphasise his conversion to Christianity. The Evangelicals are aggressively converting Hindus in India and an American company manufactured shoes with pictures of our gods. Religion is blind faith because no one has seen God and if there is a God why does he allow so much misery in the world. If God created everything he also created the Ebola virus, the TB bacteria and cancer cells. And if there is only one God why have people been killing each other for millennia over whose God is greater? What kind of God is that? True. But most wars did not happen because of religion. Wars happened for ambition, to conquer territory and to loot. Once conquered the victors forced religion on the vanquished to keep them subjugated. Although Christians, Europeans have been fighting each other for thousands of years, Hitler wanted superiority of the Aryan races over others, Stalin was a communist as was Mao. " The old ways must be repudiated - totally," writes Mr Walzer. Fine but what will you put there instead? Secularism sounds fine but what does it mean? If it means equal respect for all religions then the ' old ways ' are here to stay. If it means atheism then people will choose other ways of creating a community. Maybe based on race, language or country as the recent killings in South Africa have shown. People do not trust politicians, business fellows or journalists. That is why they trust God. Secularism is just a word. Tell us what it means.

Not just Yemen, will Saudi Arabia survive?

Two days back Saudi Arabia announced that it was going to stop bombing Houthi positions in Yemen in what was known as ' Operation Decisive Storm ' because they had ' degraded Houthi-controlled military infrastructure '. A Saudi prince has promised a Bentley to each pilot for the enormous success achieved and the ' Decisive Storm ' was going to be followed by ' Operation Renewal of Hope ' wherein they were going to talk peace with the Houthis over cups of Qahwa, to gently persuade them to give up all the territorial gains they have made. Can you kill people, destroy their homes and create a severe shortage of food and water one day and then talk peace the next? Clearly not, because just a few hours after announcing an end to the bombing Saudi planes were bombing Houthis again. Bombing may seem to be a low cost way to weaken an enemy but it can have unintended consequences, as the US has discovered by killing 2 western hostages in a drone attack in Pakistan. Did Pakistan willfully suppress intelligence in revenge for Pakistanis killed by US drone strikes? We may never know. The Houthis are a Shia sect from the north west of Yemen, bordering Saudi Arabia, but they have been going south towards Aden so what was Saudi going to gain from bombing them? As is becoming a habit US forces scarpered from Yemen with their tails between their legs. Obama was using drones to kill Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, or AQAP, very often killing innocent civilians instead, so the flight of the Americans along with the Saudi bombing has allowed Al Qaeda to capture the Ryan Airport in Al Mukalla. Yemen is effectively divided into a Houthi controlled west and an Al Qaeda controlled east. Bin Laden hated the Saudi royal family so making the Al Qaeda stronger is not in the interest of Saudi Arabia. In the north Shia militia, backed by Iran, are fighting ISIS militants. Both Al Qaeda and ISIS are Sunni while the Houthis, the Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Alawis in Syria, the south of Iraq and Iran are Shia. Every group would like to control the biggest prize of all, the 2 Holy Mosques in Makkah and Medina in Saudi Arabia. While talking about peace western countries are adding to the flames by supplying billions of dollars of weapons to Arab countries. The US has moved an aircraft carrier off the coast of Yemen to stop Iranian arms supply to the Houthis. All this fighting means lots of asylum seekers moving to Europe. No one knows how many terrorists are mixed in with them. The only good news out of the region is a sex shop, recently opened in Makkah, which will sell Halal sex toys. Will they have two and a half slits? Just wondering.

An irrational left cannot stop robber barons.

It was Adam Smith, the Father of Economics, who recognised that all business fellows are out to exploit consumers for their own profit when he wrote way back in 1776," It is not from the benevolence of the butcher, the brewer, the baker, that we can expect our dinner, but from their regard to their own interest." In other words it is competition that keeps them honest and they are always looking to create monopolies. That is how the robber barons of the past, such as John D Rockefeller and co, became wealthy just as Google, Apple and Facebook control over 90% of the market in their own areas today. Of course, it is always for our benefit as Mr Mark Zuckerberg explained in his article on Internet.org and net neutrality. Innocent suckers that we are, we need to be protected from being looted by the bandits. But by whom? The leftists and liberals rail against capitalism without suggesting any alternative. The trouble is that they do not learn from history or from events in other countries. They keep repeating the tired old mantra of taxing the rich and distributing to the poor which has not worked before and will not work ever. Every country needs investments for its economy to grow so there is competition in attracting the rich by keeping tax rates low. If the rate of tax is too high the wealthy will move to where it is lower. Years of handouts by Hugo Chavez has reduced Venezuela, with the largest oil reserves in the world, into an economic basket case. Even worse, leftists come across as imbeciles when they write that " human need can and should be limited ". Limited to what? Should we give up houses, cars and planes and go back to living in huts and travelling by bullock carts while singing happy old Hindi movie songs? Perhaps, we should give up shoes and walk barefoot. The Communist Party, or CPM, is fast withering away in India. Its share of votes in its once stronghold of West Bengal shrank from 50% in 2006 to 30% in 2014 and nationally it could manage a dismal 3.2% of votes in the 93 seats it contested. In Bengal it destroyed its base by destroying labor intensive industries and the growth in our economy has reduced poverty to 22% of the population. With TVs in every home and internet on mobile young people do not want to live in huts and travel on bullock carts. They want to shop in air conditioned malls, buy branded products and enjoy exotic holidays. The present controversy regarding amendments to the Land Acquisition Act is a typical example. A farmer hanged himself during a political rally in Delhi but the Chief Minister continued with his speech. Every politician is shamelessly exploiting this tragedy by lying. The man killed himself because his crop was destroyed by recent rains, not in protest against the Act. Has anyone asked farmers whether they want their children to continue in farming or whether they would rather sell their land and see their children working for salaries? There will be no need for liberals if there are no poor. Is that why they want to perpetuate poverty?

We could make big gains, only if we are clever.

Apparently the world economy is not doing as well as it should, given that interest rates in the US, the UK, Japan and Europe are at 0% and oil prices are almost half of what they were this time last year. Low inflation rates and lower fuel prices should stimulate consumer demand which should lead to increased investment, facilitated by low interest rates. But the IMF has reduced its forecast for global growth from 3.9% to 3.5% this year. It is not as if people are not borrowing. The global debt has risen to a whopping $199 trillion from just $87 trillion in 2000, which is $27,777 for every person in the world. China has a total debt of 282% of its GDP, greater than that of the US or Germany. Much of the debt in China is linked to its property sector. A Chinese property developer, Kaisa has defaulted on its dollar debt and more are to follow. China's GDP grew by 7% in the first quarter of this year, which is slower than what it needs. Using different yardsticks the Chinese Prime Minister puts the growth rate between 1.6% and 3%. The Chinese stock market is booming, with a producer of health goods from deer antlers at 70 times the price/earnings ratio, a seamless underwear manufacturer at 90 times and school uniforms and ketchup makers at 330 times the PE ratio. Exports fell 15% in March, due to low global demand, while imports fell by 12.7%, showing low consumer demand inside the country. No one is commenting on its defence spending which is rising by over 10% every year. Apparently it has learnt from history that " those who fall behind will get bullied ". True. We Indians know that best, having suffered butchery at the hands of Moguls and the British for over 600 years. What China has not learnt is that strength alone is not enough. The US has many allies in Europe, Australia, the UK and others. It has NATO to back it up. China is hated and feared by all its neighbors. Its friends are the Khmer Rouge, North Korea, Pakistan and other such lowest dregs of the world. Despite falling exports China is not allowing the yuan to fall against the dollar because that may increase the flight of money abroad. Last year it recorded a negative balance in foreign currency of $91.2 billion. The strength of the dollar is causing all sorts of problems in developing economies. A strong dollar means we have to pay more in rupees for oil imports, partly canceling the fall in oil prices. Loans taken in dollars will need much more rupees to repay. The IMF is warning about dangers of a strong dollar to developing economies. The dollar is forecast to rise even higher as there are outstanding loans of $9 trillion to be repaid. The Federal Reserve Chair, Janet Yellen has been cooing softly to calm the nerves of investors about rise in US interest rate which will push the dollar even higher. There are lots of calculations about what is going to happen but no one really knows. If we are clever we could cash in from the confusion. After all if there are losers there must be some winners.

Short term gain for long term pain?

India is still suffering the effects of over 200 years of British exploitation but we may get some revenge as politics in Britain becomes more like ours. As Britain goes to the polls on 7 May it looks extremely likely that there will be a hung parliament with smaller parties getting a larger share of seats than before, making a coalition government inevitable. Think the Congress led mishmash that we suffered from 2004-2014. Previously there were 2 major parties in Britain, Labour and Conservatives, with Liberals, the Democratic Unionist Party of Northern Ireland and the Plaid Cymru of Wales taking a handful of seats between them. So far Labour has had a lock on seats in Scotland. No longer. Like the Aam Aadmi Party in Delhi the Scottish National Party is set to win more than 50 out of 59 seats in Scotland and its leader, Nicola Sturgeon has released its manifesto, promising handouts, like increase in minimum wage to 8.70 pounds per hour, increasing old age pension, 100,000 affordable homes, extra 9.5 billion pounds spending on the NHS and so on. Just like AAP. Sturgeon proposes to pay for the increased spending by increasing the top rate of income tax to 50% and by saving 130 billion pounds by canceling the renewal of the Trident nuclear system. Last year Scotland held a referendum for independence from Britain which lost by 55% to 45% after leaders of the 3 major parties promised increased powers and money for Scotland. Today Britain derives its power from being a member of the European Union, a permanent member of the UN Security Council and a slave nation of the US. Already Cameron has promised a referendum on continued membership the European Union to reduce the attraction of the right wing UK Independence Party. If Scotland becomes independent there will be no United Kingdom so it will lose its permanent seat on the UN Security Council. Without Trident it will be of little use to the US and without US protection may lose the Falkland Islands to Argentina. Getting out of the EU may see Spain claiming Gibraltar, with EU support. On its own England will be an insignificant monarchy somewhere in Europe, like Liechtenstein. Sturgeon is banking on the panic in the major parties to get what she wants. But she must be careful. If she pushes too hard she maybe successful in breaking up the UK but on its own Scotland, with North Sea oil running out, will be much poorer. Meanwhile Xi Jinping feels that visiting Pakistan is like visiting the home of his " own brother ". China wants to replace the US as the most powerful country in the world. It will fail. The US has a lot of friends, China only has enemies. Pakistan is a failed state with the ISI, the Taliban and Al Qaeda in a fatal embrace. Does Xi Jinping really want a bunch of mad dogs as his " own brother "? Maybe short term gain against India, but at what cost? 

Need liquor to rally.

The Congress has decided that it is on to a winner in fighting against any amendment to the Land Acquisition Act, passed by the Congress, as a landmine for any new government, just before it was trounced in the general elections last year. It is going to hold rallies against the Prime Minister all over India. The Congress President, Ms Sonia Gandhi said," We will not allow those forces to succeed, who want to destroy the legacy of our freedom. We will fight without fear against such forces." Stirring words, indeed. Freedom for what? To remain a dirt poor country while China, Korea, Singapore, Taiwan and others race ahead? Her son Mr Rahul Gandhi said that the " pain, suffering and anguish of the entire farming community are closest to my heart." Brings tears to your eyes, what? Problem is that farmers have no idea of what the Act is all about. One Jabar Singh from Mathura, who was at the rally, said," I am not aware of any changes to any law. I came here because my crops have been destroyed." Probably by the recent rains, poor fellow. Farmers are thirsty folk. " We are not promising any money to those going for the rally. But we have provided for two boxes of liquor per bus," said an anonymous Congress leader in Punjab. A sloshed farmer is a happy farmer. What no one seems to have noticed so far is that only those who own land will attend these rallies and, since land prices have rocketed during the Congress regime, all these people are millionaires. The real poor are the landless who own no assets and hence have no leverage at all. Estimates vary between 200-300 million people in rural areas. There are many more living on rent in towns and cities all across India. All these people will benefit from new industries which will provide them with jobs and a higher standard of living. Thus, the Land Acquisition Act protects the rich at the cost of the destitute. So, is there a moral case for protecting the poor? Apparently " we should take care of each other " because " human needs can and should be limited." The statement appears to be extremely arrogant because it is so senseless. Who are you to limit what another's needs or desires might be? While one person needs a house with 27 floors, costing over $1 billion, another may choose to live like a hermit without any modern convenience. Yes, every child must get nutritious food, good healthcare and the best education but caring for each other puts a responsibility on the poor not to have children they cannot afford. According to the author poverty persists because people " restrict their idea of solidarity to narrow notions of identity, whether of race, ethnicity, community or caste." Perhaps he should be sent to Syria to preach to ISIS. These do-gooders do not seem to understand that poor people want cars, air conditioned houses and to fly. For that we need industries and markets. Perhaps they are the real enemies of the poor.