Saturday, April 04, 2026

The power to buy.

"After extensive consultation, govt has decided to retain the retail inflation target for the monetary policy committee (MPC) at 4%. For the next five years the tolerance band of 2-6% has also been retained, according to the notification issued by the Finance Ministry." TOI. This allows the MPC of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to set low policy rates by ignoring inflation at up to 6%. The flexible inflation target of 4%+/- 2% was first set by the government in 2016 for a five year period and was renewed in 2021. prsindia. org. However, the RBI kept its policy rate unchanged at 4% from May 2020 to May 2022 when it raised the rate by 40 basis points (bps) to 4.40% (BBC) even though the consumer price index (CPI) inflation rate was 6.28% in May 2020, rising to 7.61% in October 2020, and stayed near or above 6% till May 2022 (RI), when it raised rates in an emergency meeting because the US Federal Reserve raised interest rate by 50 bps (bankrate.com). Rising prices mean that the rupee is buying less, or the rupee is depreciating in value. The US targets an inflation rate of 2%, which is the target rate for most developed economies. Brazil targets 4.5%+/-2%, Mexico 3%+/-1%, Indonesia 5%+/-1% and Russia targets 4%. IMF. If the inflation rate in the US (usinflationcalculator.com) stays below that in India the dollar will keep getting stronger against the rupee. The rupee has fallen from 66.46 to one dollar in 2016 (bankbazaar.com) to 92.92 this morning (xe. com), having recovered from 95.220 on 31 March 2026 (in.investing.com). India's foreign exchange reserves fell by $10.3 billion in the week ended 27 March 2026 to $688.1 billion, having fallen by $11.4 billion to $698.4 billion in the week ended 20 March. TOI. Though some of it was because of a fall in the price of gold, most of it was because the RBI sold dollars to support the rupee. In addition, "The RBI's unorthodox move to steady the rupee by forcing a banks to unwind foreign exchange positions beyond $100 million will prevent its slide towards 95," but, "The move will also cause banks with large open positions to lose money." TOI. Following that the RBI protected the rupee further  "by targeting the rebooking of canceled forex derivative contracts and tightening norms around related party contracts." Mint. "The Indian rupee may weaken to a record 100 per dollar or beyond," as "Analysts at Wells Fargo and Van Eck Associates Corp say elevated oil prices will accelerate the rupee's decline by worsening inflation and the current account deficit." ET. Yield on India's benchmark 10 year bonds is at 7.129% this morning (in. investing. com), greatly raising the borrowing costs for the government. The fall in the value of the rupee from 66.46 to 92.92 against one dollar means a 59.86% erosion in the value of the wealth of Indians in the 12 years of this government. And, the ability to buy. That is some achievement.

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