Sunday, April 26, 2026

India invented the zero.

Election freebies announced by the DMK party in Tamil Nadu include "women from families that do not pay income tax will be given a coupon worth Rs 8,000 to purchase household appliances", Rs 2,000 per month to 13.1 million women and Rs 1,500 stipend to college students. AIADMK will give refrigerators to all rice-ration-card holders and NTK will increase jobs by creating five capitals across the state. The Wire. The 2025-26 Economic Survey warned that unconditional cash transfers (UCTs) "are making state governments bankrupt," and preventing investments in "healthcare, building schools, hospitals, roads, paying for teachers'salaries." "A meta-analysis of 115 randomized evaluations across 72 UCT programs in 34 low- and middle-income countries finds that UCTs improve consumption, food security and short-term income stability, but have little impact on consistently improving child nutrition, education, or reducing poverty," wrote Prof Neeraj Kaushal. "The population covered by social protection systems has increased from 22% in 2016 to 64.3% in 2025," so that "poverty in all its dimensions according to national definitions has declined sharply from 24.85% in 2015-16 to 14.96% in 2019-21." TOI. "The Union government spent Rs 6.33 trillion on subsidies and transfers in 2023-24, up from Rs 2.76 trillion in 2018-19, a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 21%." The official figures undercount actual subsidy expenditure by Rs 3 trillion and there are off-budget payments as well, wrote Aditya Sinha. In addition, the central government is providing free food grains to 813.5 million people for five years, starting on 01.01.2024 at a cost of Rs 11.80 trillion over five years. pib.gov.in. The Forest Minister of Maharashtra proposed raising Rs 120 billion to finance its Ladki Bahin (daughter, sister) Scheme by chopping down its teak plantation, wrote Ajit Ranade. India's GDP growth may be among the highest in the world, but "Among the leading signs of weakness: India is losing more people and attracting a lot less money than it used to. This decade, a net total of 6,75,000 people emigrated each year, up from 3,25,000 in the 2010s." Foreign direct investment (FDI) surpassed 4% in China and Vietnam during their boom phase. "That figure never surpassed 1.5% in India and is now just 0.1%, which is one-sixth of the emerging market average," wrote Ruchir Sharma. Indians are flocking to Russia for work. "In 2021,..5,000 work permits were approved for Indian nationals. Last year, almost 72,000 were okayed for Indians - nearly a third of the total annual quota for migrant workers on visas." Reuters. Throwing handouts to win elections leads to tax terrorism which has caused several industrialists to commit suicide (TOI). "Average citizens [often express the feeling] that most of the time attempts by tax authorities to go after taxpayers are to meet some arbitrary collection targets, instead of being based on careful investigation. The numbers seem to partly justify this suspicion: When these disagreements go to court, the government wins less than 8% of the time," wrote Mihir Sharma. With a nominal GDP at $3.916 trillion (TOI) can India afford endless handouts? Only if the rupee falls to the basement. It won't matter. After all, India invented the zero (BBC).  

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