Monday, December 30, 2024
Touring for our standing.
"The global landscape in 2024 was one of extraordinary complexity and volatility." Wars in Ukraine and Gaza, China's economic slowdown and the debt burden of emerging economies. "These interconnected challenges demand deft diplomacy and robust leadership," and in just one year Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited UAE, Qatar, Bhutan, Italy, the USA twice, Russia twice, Austria,Poland, Ukraine, Brunei, Singapore, Laos, Nigeria, Brazil, Guyana and Kuwait, wrote Harsh Vardhan Shringla. Mr Shringla was in the Indian Foreign Service and was appointed ambassador to various countries. wikipedia. Apparently, "These visits strengthened bilateral relations and elevated India's global standing." Inconsequential returns from billions of rupees spent on VVIP tourism. At home, "Inflationary pressures are set to upend household budgets, potentially worsening stressed urban demand." "Companies' production costs have swelled due to 22% increase in import duty on edible oil this September and up to 40% in calendar year 2024." ET. The rupee has collapsed against the dollar from Rs 76.31 to one dollar in 2021 (Thomas Cook) to Rs 85.59 to $1 this morning (xe.com). A 12.16% drop in 3 years. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has been selling dollars to support the rupee, so that our foreign exchange reserves have fallen to $644.39 billion as of 20 December (ET) from a record high of $704.89 billion as of 27 September (ET). A weaker rupee raises prices of imports and pushes inflation higher but the RBI's support has meant that "The rupee's 40-currency trade-weighted real effective exchange rate (REER) stood at 108.14 in November, indicating the currency was overvalued by around 8%," and "The rupee's overvaluation relative to its trading partners makes India's exports more expensive." ET. Since the arrival of Mr Modi in 2014, the RBI has been transferring vast sums of money to the government from its surplus. Except for FY 2016-17, the year of demonetisation (wikipedia) and in FY 2021-22 as a result of millions of deaths due to Covid and lack of oxygen (BBC), the RBI's generosity rose to a record high of Rs 2.11 trillion in FY 2023-24 (infometrics.com). Even when the RBI shortened its accounting year to eight months from 1 August 2020 to 31 March 2021 to coincide with India's financial year (The Hindu) the RBI transferred Rs 99,122 to the government. Can the RBI go bankrupt? The RBI has to shrink its assets to balance its shrinking reserves and printing notes to make up the shortfall will push up inflation. As happened in Venezuela in the 1980s and 1990s, wrote Andy Mukherjee. The RBI's Financial Stability Report 2024, on 30 December, says, "The Indian economy and domestic financial system remain strong, supported by sound macroeconomic fundamentals and healthy balance sheets." ET. "US President-elect Donald Trump has set the stage for a potential trade conflict with India, threatening to impose reciprocal tariffs if the country continues to levy high taxes on American goods." BS. Eighteen foreign visits in 12 months. To improve global standing. No wonder India is at a standstill. Happy New Year.
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