Growth is inversely related to greed.

"India's economic growth moderated to a seven-quarter low of 5.4% in the second quarter of FY25, down from 8.1% in the same period last year and 6.7% in the previous quarter." "Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE), a key GDP driver, grew by 6.0% in Q2, up from 2.6% in the same period last year." "The RBI has maintained its GDP growth projection for FY25 at 7.2%." ET. The government must have had an inkling. First, "Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal called upon RBI to cut rates, arguing that targeting food price inflation through interest rates was an 'absolutely flawed theory'." TOI. In quick succession, "Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman...called for bank interest rates to be 'far more affordable', arguing that several people found the cost of borrowing very stressful." TOI. "Though originally privately owned, since nationalisation in 1949, the Reserve Bank is fully owned by the Government of India." rbi.org.in. Since RBI's repo rate sets the basis of bank lending rates and since the RBI is governed by the Finance Ministry, it seems that Ms Sitharaman is ordering the RBI to cut interest rates. Business leaders, politicians and civil servants in India are convinced that low cost of borrowing will result in higher investment, creating more jobs and a higher consumption-led economic growth. Because bureaucrats get inflation-proof salaries with Dearness (Inflation) Allowance of 53% of basic salary (ET) and politicians can enjoy a full non-veg buffet lunch for just Rs 700, vegetarian buffet lunch for Rs 500 (scribd.com), less than half the price at any ordinary restaurant in Delhi, they do not understand that people do not borrow from banks for essentials. They cut spending on non-essential purchases, which reduces demand, and is a disincentive on new investment. "India's city dwellers are cutting on everything from cookies to fast food as persistently high inflation squeezes middle class budgets, threatening the country's economic growth." msn. "Inflation-adjusted wages for listed non-financial companies shrank by 0.5% in the July-September quarter, according to Elara Securities, marking a grim milestone for real urban incomes. Simultaneously, inflation has eaten into disposable income, forcing families to cut back on daily essentials and big-ticket purchases like cars." BT. "Bank loans secured by gold jewelry have seen a dramatic 50.4% increase in the first seven months of this fiscal year." ET. The Inflation Expectation Survey of Households by the RBI "shows only a small minority (5% of households) expect a decline in inflation rate, and 74.4% expect prices to rise at a rate similar or higher than now," wrote Deepa Vasudevan. Calls for ignoring the cost of food is specious because the government directly increases the cost of food. GST on domestic cooking gas is 5% per cylinder of gas. cleartax. Taxes on diesel, used by trucks, add up to 50% of the retail price. cleartax. And, trucks have to pay high toll charges to travel on highways. tis.nhai.gov.in. The government can bring down the cost of food dramatically by reducing all these taxes on transport and cooking of food. They won't. Greed and growth cannot go together. Inversely related.  

Markets are believers.

"Adani Group companies saw their share prices gain up to 14% for the third day in a row. Adani Green Energy Ltd share price led the gains rising up to 14% in morning trades." Mint. "Like most other Adani Group stocks, Adani Total Gas Ltd shares also continued their strong upmove," as its price hit a high of Rs 862.15, a rise of 48.72% in three trading sessions. BT. "Mr Gautam Adani, Mr Sagar Adani and Mr Vneet Jaain have not been charged with any violation of the FCPA in the counts set forth in the indictment of the US DOJ or civil complaint of the US SEC," the Adani Group said in a statement. FCPA refers to the US Foreign Corruption Practices Act. "These directors have been charged on three counts in the criminal indictment, namely (i) alleged securities fraud conspiracy, (ii) alleged wire fraud conspiracy and (iii) alleged securities fraud," according to a stock exchange filing by the Adani Group. TOI. "Adani is what in geopolitics is called a 'national champion'." He is India's answer to China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). "During Korea's dizzy economic rise from 1960 onwards, a few business groups called the 'chaebol' - including Hyundai, Daewoo, and Samsung - emerged as champions, getting favors and subsidies aplenty while giving kickbacks to politicians. This did not ruin their image," wrote Swaminathan SA Aiyar. Notably, Korea's meteoric economic growth and the rise of chaebols, known as the Miracle on the Han River, occurred during the dictatorship of Park Chung Hee from 1962 until his assassination in 1979. wikipedia. Whereas, "India is a mother of democracy; India is also a model of diversity," said Prime Minister Narendra Modi in his speech on Independence Day in 2023. DH. Both Mr Modi and Adani are from Gujarat. In a democracy the law should apply equally to everybody. Indian states had entered into power supply agreements (PSAs) with the Solar Energy Corporation of India (Seci), a Navratna Government of India Enterprise (seci.co.in) but wanted to buy cheaper power from other sources. "The bottom line for both Azure and Adani Green was that they each stood to lose billion of dollars of potential revenue unless state governments and their related Discoms (distribution companies) entered into PSAs with Seci," US Securities and Exchange Commission said. Seems logical. "How come US authorities found wrongdoing when none was spotted by our agencies? Amidst all this is the deafening silence of Indian business leaders. This is no trivial matter and impacts the reputation of the entire business community," wrote Amol Agrawal. According to Transparency International, India's score on the Corruption Perception Index improved by three points from 2013 to 2023. However, instead of punishing corruption "Indian businesses and government may instead double down on attempts to be more financially self-sufficient when funding strategic assets like energy." Reuters. The stock markets show that Adani is safe. Are we?     

Worth killing for.

"The National Eligibility cum Entrance Test (Undergraduate), or NEET-UG is the gateway to studying medicine in the country." "This year an astounding 2.4 million students competed for just 110,000 available seats in the NEET exam, underscoring the intense pressure and fierce competition faced by aspiring candidates." This year, "an unprecedented 67 students had achieved the perfect score of 720 marks," leading to "allegations of paper leaks, cheating and systemic corruption." BBC. "Investigations by various news sources revealed over 70 cases of exam leaks, including recruitment and board exams, over the past seven years across 15 states. These leaks disrupted the schedules of 17 million applicants." India Today. In Madhya Pradesh, "The Vyapam scam, which has irregularities in three categories - impersonation, manipulation and engine-bogie (nexus between government employees and middlemen), came to light in 2013." What made this scam extremely sinister was the systematic elimination of witnesses. "On record, there are more than 40 people associated with the scam who have died since it broke in 2013." TNIE. The largest serial killing in the history of the world. No higher education means poorly paid jobs. Hence, "As of 2022, an estimated 725,000 undocumented Indian immigrants were in the US." Why and how have they reached the US? "For one, the migrants are not from the lowest economic strata. But they cannot secure tourist or student visas to the US, often due to lower education of English proficiency." So they pay up to $100,000 to people smugglers. BBC. Apparently, 75% of Indians want to move abroad. Higher salaries, better job opportunities and freedom are the main reasons, wrote Nupur Dave. One way is to go as students and then try to convert the student visa into a work visa which would give the right to stay in the country. "Canada's Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) has uncovered over 10,000 fraudulent student acceptance letters this year," and "According to media reports, approximately 80% of these fake letters were linked to students from Gujarat and Punjab." BS. "During the 2023-24 academic year, over 331,602 Indian students pursued higher education at US institutions," thus becoming "the leading source of international students in the United States." ET. "For many of this government's critics, Gujarat has come to represent everything they abhor about the BJP." "Gujarat is where all the investments meant for other states are redirected." And yet of the 10 Indians who try to enter the US illegally every single hour 50% are Gujaratis, wrote Vir Sanghvi. "Which area has [India] invented? Please give me an example," asked Infosys founder Narayan Murthy. MC. If our exam system is so corrupt it's a wonder that foreign universities even accept Indian students. Illegal immigrants and illegal education. India may be number one.  

Learn from Henry Ford.

"Balancing fiscal prudence with the need to provide a growth impetus has been a hallmark of our government over past Union budgets." "With a keen eye on resilience..." "The budget for 2024-25 did a fine job..." "Particularly praiseworthy is the government's proposal..." wrote Chandrajeet Banerjee, director general of the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII). Obsequious, terrified of being seen to criticize, cringe-making and grovelling, even Aurangzeb probably did not inspire such terror. What sacrifice is Mr Banerjee requesting from politicians and civil servants? He is begging for tax simplification and widening the tax base. In September 2021, corporate tax rate was reduced to 22%, which, with cess and surcharge, meant an effective corporate tax rate of 25.17%. The tax rate for new investment in manufacturing was reduced to 15%, the effective rate being 17.01%. pib.gov.in. In August 2023, "The government lost a little over Rs 1 trillion in 2020-21 on account of a cut in corporate taxes, Minister of State for Finance Pankaj Chaudhary said." ET. "Indian companies have to pay a lower statutory tax rate than companies in some other emerging economies such as Brazil, Argentina and Mexico." Mint. Corporate tax rates are now so friendly that, "Income tax from individuals now comprises more than 30% of the government's total tax receipts, significantly exceeding the contribution of taxes paid by companies, new data from the Income Tax Department shows." The Print. If his members are paying such low taxes what is Mr Banerjee's gripe? It is that "of the 75.5 million individuals who filed income tax returns for assessment year 2023-24, 63% paid zero tax and just 5% of filers paid 73.5% of the overall tax payable." He wants to widen the tax base which means he wants his own tax to reduce. Those at the top are paying more tax because CEOs of companies have awarded themselves massive increases in salaries so that CEOs now earn up to 1000 times the average salary of workers. TOI. While the top "30 million households (or 120 million people) has a per capita income of $15,000 per person (around Rs 1.23 million) and forms the country's consuming class," "As per the latest Periodic Labor Force Survey (PLFS), real wages of workers have increased only 0.7% per year between 2017-18 and 2022-23," wrote Abhishek Mukherjee. In 1912, Henry Ford doubled the wages of his workers from $2.5 to $5 per day, reduced working hours from 9 to 8 hours and increased the number of shifts from two to three. The huge increase in productivity brought down costs so much that "By 1919,  a Model T car that sold for $800 in in 1910 cost only $350," "and for the first time, the average Ford employee could also be a customer." Inc. What business in India would ever dream of reducing costs and paying workers higher wages? US Federal Prosecutors have issued arrest warrants and the US Securities and Exchange Commission has issued summons for Mr Gautam Adani and his nephew Sagar. BS. "There's corruption in private sector meant to enrich businessmen and executives at the expense of their own companies and shareholders." "Business corruption and political corruption form a symbiosis that has fueled growth for some time," wrote TK Arun. No wonder Mr Banerjee is so polite. Brothers in arms (dictionary), as it were.     

Primary would have refined the message.

Democrats were certain of victory when on 20 August, "US Vice President Kamala Harris' election effort has raised around $500 million since she became the Democratic presidential candidate," having "raised $200 million in the first week of her campaign while she quickly wrapped up support to become the party's nominee." Reuters. In total, "Vice President Kamala Harris spent a remarkable $1.5 billion in her hyper-compressed 15-week presidential campaign." NYT. Every 'expert' has an opinion on Donald Trump's victory. "The natural election advantages once enjoyed by incumbents are gone. A century of expanding govt has twisted capitalism into a system of state support for everyone, but it has lavished far greater benefits on the rich and powerful than the average American," so that "Nine in 10 Americans born in the 1940s grew up to earn more than their parents; today fewer than one in four say they expect to achieve the same progress," wrote Ruchir Sharma. President Joe Biden is mainly responsible by blocking the primary process so that Harris didn't have to defend and explain her message to the voters. "Democratic strategists, pundits and lawmakers have publicly blamed the loss on Biden's refusal to exit the race until late July, even as his unpopularity in polls surged and an increasing number of Americans said he was too old to serve another term." Forbes. "A Democratic Party fit for purpose would have won in a landslide. The question isn't why Democrats lost with 48% of the popular vote rather than winning, as they hoped, with a sliver over 50%; it's why they didn't completely crush the other side." "Unfortunately, except that it despises Trump and loves to spend money, it doesn't seem sure. Its most energetic activists and many of its leading thinkers, allies and enablers have embraced a radical form of postmodern identity politics." Bloomberg. That is repulsive to most people. A vindictive and bitter Biden is trying to engineer a scorched earth policy (wikipedia) in Ukraine to make it difficult for Trump to bring peace. "US President-elect Donald Trump has said his administration will focus on ending the Russia-Ukraine war, as he lamented the killing of people in the conflict." ET. Just two months before Trump is sworn in, Biden permitted the use of Army Tactical Missile Systems against Russia, clearly designed to increase casualties and block Trump's efforts at peace. TOI. Not content with that, "The Biden administration will provide Ukraine with controversial anti-personnel mines in its war against Russia, a US official confirmed." CBS. Anti-personnel mines were banned in the "1997 Convention on the Prohibition of the Use, Stockpiling, Production, and Transfer of Anti-Personnel Mines and on their Destruction" in Ottawa. United Nations. This makes Biden a war criminal. However, "Biden's dangerous, last-minute ratcheting up of US-Russia tensions may serve as an accidental catalyst for the advent of 'President Trump the peacemaker'," wrote Patrick Basham. We pray for Trump's success. Stop the suffering of innocent people. And children.

Similar neighbors.

"In a recent YouGov-Mint Millennial Survey, over 88% of Indians described themselves as 'middle-class'." Kishore Biyani developed a framework which divides Indian consumers into 3 tiers - "The first tier, comprising around 30 million households (or 120 million people), has a per capita income of $15,000 per person (around Rs 1.23 million) and forms the country's consuming class." "Below them are the 'aspirant class' - 330 million with per capita income of $3,000 (around Rs 250,000)," wrote Abhisek Mukherjee. With the population of India at 1,456 million (worldometer), we are left with around 1,115 million people too poor to buy anything except essentials. Tier 1 is spending on foreign holidays, ride hailing services and "'artisanal' D2C brands", while "lingering effects of inflation and taxation is making India 2 and 3 cut down on non-essential spending and switch to local brands." "India's city dwellers are cutting spending on everything from cookies to fast food as persistently high inflation squeezes middle class budgets, threatening the country's economic growth." "Anecdotal evidence suggests retail sales rose close to 15% year-on-year during the festive 2024 season...about half of last year's pace." ET. "The US based Pew Research Center projected the pre-Covid strength of the Indian middle class - defined as those earning between USD10-USD 20 a day or Rs 25,000-Rs 50,000 a month - at about 99 million," and "one-third of this segment fell out of the 'middle class' during the Covid freeze, effectively reducing it to about 66 million." Companies raised prices after Covid, relying on premiumization, but are now seeing falling sales. TNIE. "Rising delinquencies in credit card receivables have made banks wary of ramping up subscriber additions in the festive season." ET. Over the last five years, "companies have reaped abnormally high profits on the back of premiumization triggered by exorbitant price increases," as "the acute K-shaped post pandemic recovery is  characterized by a thin upper arm and a thick lower arm; a feature officials have denied." ET.  "So, the economy is like it was during the Mughal empire - it produces bespoke goods at high markups for the rich, but is unable to service the mass market demand of the ordinary Indian due to low productivity. Rent seeking, not profit maximization, is, therefore, the goal of most entrepreneurs," wrote Rathin Roy. The situation must be dire because, "In a bid to boost demand, industry group CII has proposed that the Centre issue 'consumption' vouchers to citizens in the lower income group, which can be used within six-eight months, while also recommending a 40% hike in daily wages under MGNREGA and a 33% increase in PM-KISAN beneficiaries." TOI. This would be in addition to free food grains to 813 million people for five years starting on 1 January 2024 (pib.gov.in) which should encourage discretionary spending of earnings among the poor. Although the US Customs and Border Protection (CPB) have apprehended 170,000 Indians trying to enter the US illegally, "As of 2022, an estimated 725,000 undocumented Indian immigrants were in the US." BBC. Our neighbor is also in similar difficulties. "The world is flustered as beggars from Pakistan flood its cities." India Today. Illegal migrants or beggars - only a matter of degree. So similar. 

Disguised spending.

India has spent $14 trillion on investment since Independence. "A report by Motilal Oswal revealed that in the last 10 years, $8 trillion has been injected into the economy, to assist the country's rapid expansion and modernization." TOI. "Despite the fluctuations, majority 55% of the Indian economy continue to grow positively, a report by HSBC Global Research said." Though the GDP growth has been impressive, "the Indian economy appears to be settling into a more moderate phase. The report which analysed 100 indicators of growth added that while a majority, (it) represents a decline from 65% just a quarter ago." ET. "After selling equity for Rs 1138.58 billion through exchanges in October, FPIs (foreign institutional investors) have sold another Rs 418.72 billion of equity through exchanges in November so far," but FPIs bought equity in the primary market worth Rs 153.39 billion in November. TIE. The victory of Donald Trump in the presidential election strengthened the US dollar. "Last week, the US dollar advanced to a one-year high against other major currencies. It has gained over 3% post US presidential election. The currency has been on a recovery path since the first week of October, in hopes that the US Central Bank will continue lowering interest rates." ET. However, "The greenback declined against major peers with the Aussie and euro leading gains, while Bitcoin fell below $97,000 before paring losses." Because "traders viewed Donald Trump's pick of Scott Bessent for Treasury Secretary as a measured choice." Mint. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has been defending the Indian rupee frantically because a weaker rupee against the dollar will make imports more expensive and push up the rate of inflation. "India's foreign exchange reserves declined $17.76 billion, the sharpest weekly fall, to hit a four-month low of $657.8 billion for the week ended November 15," as the RBI sold dollars to defend the rupee. BS. In October, India's merchandise exports rose 17.25% to $39.2 billion while imports rose 3.9% to $66.34 billion. Trade deficit was $27.14 billion, less than $30.42 billion in October 2023. ET. "Following retail inflation spike in October, the RBI's state of the economy report warned that rising prices, if unchecked, would undermine prospects of the real economy while cautioning on the spillover effect of rising food prices on headline and said uptick in core inflation is a 'worry'." BS. "Cash handout schemes have, of late, become politicians', across central and state governments, preferred social welfare instrument to secure votes - of bribe voters." "A detailed count of welfare/redistribution expenditure of the Union government informs that the government budgeted to spend Rs 10.77 trillion in 2024-25 of the total Budget of Rs 48.21 trillion. It works out to approximately Rs 7,700 per person for India's 1.4 billion population." "Together, the Union and state governments will be spending close to Rs 26,000 per person on welfare/redistribution," wrote Subhash Chandra Garg. Fiscal stimulus of that magnitude would be inflationary. In the US, the consumer price index (CPI) for October rose 2.6% year-on-year, while core inflation rose by 3.3%. bls.gov. In India, the CPI inflation rate for October was 6.21%. mospi.gov. As the Indian rupee continues to buy less and less, it will depreciate against the dollar. The RBI will not dare to cut interest rates. Will there be a reckoning at some point? We wait to see.

Not another 'Quango' please.

"Bengaluru, India is setting standards in pharmaceuticals and like the US Food and Drugs Administration (FDA), we should aim to create Bharat Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for global standards and benchmarks, Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman stressed." ET. What use is an FDA if it takes instructions from politicians and has no fangs? Madam Minister may have forgotten how a restaurant owner in Tamil Nadu had to offer an abject apology to her for joking about the goods and services tax (GST) on food. All he said was, "Madam, a bun doesn't attract GST, but when cream is applied to make it a cream bun, it attracts 12% GST. Customers now say, 'You bring the bun and cream separately and I'll make the cream bun." "On 5 October 2022, the World Health Organisation (WHO) announced that four cough medicines, made by the Haryana based manufacturer, Maiden Pharma, were suspected to have caused the deaths of 66 children in the West African nation, The Gambia," wrote Priyanka Pulla. Has anyone been prosecuted for the crime? In 2021, at the height of the Covid crisis, patients receiving remdesivir from a batch coded V100167 developed high fever. Some died. "It was manufactured by Gujarat-based firm Zydus Cadilla," wrote Pulla. Both Haryana and Gujarat have BJP governments. The US FDA relies on the Office of Criminal Investigations to investigate and prosecute any criminal action. wikipedia. India has the police, the Criminal Investigation Department (CID) (wikipedia) or Crime Branch, Criminal Bureau of Investigation (CBI) (cbi.gov.in) and Central Vigilance Commission (CVC) (wikipedia), all controlled by politicians, and all used to repress citizens. Criminals are free. "In the three years leading up to March 2023, Indian authorities tested 43 million food samples. Turns out, one in four did not conform to domestic food safety laws. Of these, one in every six were either 'unsafe' or 'substandard'." "But what they did not do is alert the consumer," wrote Sayantan Bera & Suneera Tandon. Unsafe products were not withdrawn from the market probably because it would cause losses to the companies. Let children die of food poisoning. The Chairperson of the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI), Madhabi Puri Buch brazenly refused to appear before the Parliament's Public Accounts Committee (PAC) to answer allegations of conflict of interest in investigating charges of stock market manipulation by the Adani Group. BS. In 2017, a Boston-based consultancy firm, CDM Smith admitted paying bribes totaling $1.18 million to NHAI officials between 2011 and 2015 and paid a fine of over $40 million in the US. TOI. India reacted with a big shrug. "There's corruption in the private sector meant to enrich businessmen and executives at the expense of their own companies and shareholders. There's corruption by civil servants who occupy positions in which they can delay, withhold or expedite decisions businessmen await. And there's political corruption that prevents the exercise of state power to stamp out corruption of other kinds," wrote TK Arun. So, no Bharat FDA stuffed with cronies getting fat salaries and perks. Please don't waste our hard-earned taxes. On a 'Quango'.    

Bypassing currencies.

 In March 2023, "The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has granted approvals to foreign banks in 18 countries to open Vostro accounts to settle international trade in rupees." "India had proposed the rupee trade settlement mechanism as the domestic currency was under tremendous pressure in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine since February 2022." BT. In 2024, "In what could be a "very game-changing" development for India's trade with the world, many economies big and small have expressed willingness to start trading in rupee with India, Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal said on March 11." ET. And yet Mr Goyal said two days back that "India will be cautious in its opening up process till the time it is an emerging economy and it has to maintain a balance." ET. If India is to restrict trade, what will other countries buy with the rupee? It is obviously not working because, "India's foreign exchange (forex)  reserves declined $17.76 billion, the sharpest weekly fall, to hit a low of $657.8 billion for the week ended November 15." "The fall was attributed to the strengthening of the US dollar and the central bank's dollar sales to limit volatility in the foreign exchange market." BS. "The Indian central bank, in a rare move, instructed some banks to cut their long positions on the dollar-pair on Friday (yesterday), seeking to reduce speculative bets on the local currency, which is at a record low, four bankers directly familiar with the development told Reuters." ET. If Indian banks are hedging against a weaker rupee, foreigners will naturally be suspicious. At the recent BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia, in October, Russian President Vladimir Putin suggested a system to bypass the dollar. "The system, which Russia calls 'BRICS Bridge', is intended to be built within a year and would let countries conduct cross border settlement using digital platforms run by their central banks." Mint. "But a BRICS basket currency was not a natural fit for any of its member countries' exporters. With no BRICS equivalent of the European Central Bank (ECB), which manages the euro, or of the European Parliament, to which the ECB answers, fundamental questions like who would manage it would have remained unanswered," wrote Prof Barr Eichengreen. Why not use cryptocurrency? Donald Trump has just been elected president of the US. "Campaigning at a July Bitcoin conference in Nashville, Trump promised a new council as part of a crypto-friendly administration." "The industry is pushing for executive orders guaranteeing crypto companies' access to banking services, an end to enforcement actions and other changes." Reuters. But if governments in emerging nations are able to bypass the dollar by using cryptocurrencies, will people be able to bypass government regulations and taxes? "The KYC (Know Your Customer) policy was introduced to eliminate illicit use of cryptocurrencies and decrease crypto transactions' anonymity." "However, decentralized exchanges are unlikely to adopt the KYC and it is impossible to make them comply with government regulations since they are not run or owned by a centralized company or small group of people." Prestmit. "The Reserve Bank of India started a pilot for the e-rupee, devised as a digital alternative to physical cash in December 2022." Reuters. If governments bypass the dollar and people bypass governments, there could be a total breakdown of social order. Better to stick to physical currencies. Brings discipline.     

Free trade, not work visas.

"For decades, India has been obsessively focused on securing commitments for work visas in its trade negotiations, particularly when negotiating Free Trade Agreements (FTAs)," wrote Sanjeev Sanyal & Chirag Dudani. With declining population Western economies need skilled workers from India, there has been a shift towards digital outsourcing and Indian tech companies are demanding far fewer H1B visas than US multinationals. "Yet, India makes substantial concessions in other sectors for access that it would likely receive anyway." "In short, Indian trade negotiators should simply stop negotiating for long-term work visas." Former UK minister, and Conservative Party leader, Kemi Badenoch "has said that she blocked the India-UK FTA due to demands for additional visas, according to UK media reports." TOI. "Currently, India's trade agreements cover 26 countries. It is now negotiating new FTAs with 45 countries, including the UK, European Union, Peru and Oman." "According to experts, India could not gain much from these FTAs as in absolute terms its tariff concessions were deeper than its partners, who already had lower tariffs." Also, "Korea and Japan apply stringent standards, regulations and certification requirements. Conforming to these standards and then obtaining certifications is costly." FE. India has high tariffs on imports to protect local manufacturers, thus allowing them to earn exorbitant profits by selling shoddy goods to hapless Indians. In Budget 2019, "Union Finance Minister, Nirmala Sitharaman proposed hike in customs duty on 75 imported items to give a push to Make in India program of the Narendra Modi government." India Today. In Budget 2020, "Customers can expect to pay more for imported food and grocery items, shoes, ceiling fans, wooden furniture, kitchenware, appliances, hairdryers, shelled walnuts and other items with the budget raising the basic customs duty to as much as 100% on some of them to encourage local producers." ET. India is one of the hottest countries in the world and has been using ceiling fans for at least 100 years. "In January-June 2024, Indian mining companies increased iron ore exports by 20% compared to the same period in 2023, to 20.26 million tons." GMK Center. India contributes at least 2% of the world's copper production. wikipedia. "In FY25 (until June 2024), India's plastic exports stood at US $2.93 billion. ibef.org. We have all the ingredients and the largest customer base right here in India and yet we cannot produce the highest quality ceiling fans at the lowest possible cost. We have to protect the industry with 100% tariffs. There are two main reasons for this. One, "Cash handouts schemes have, of late, become politicians', across central and state governments, preferred social welfare instrument to secure votes - or bribe voters." "Is this a new race to the fiscal bottom?" asked Subhash Chandra Garg. This profligacy leads to very high taxes and a high degree of suspicion of tax evasion. "This suspicion runs so deep and nuanced that an intricate framework of rules amounting to a 'chastity belt' has left even well-meaning companies exhausted with compliance requirements," wrote Narayan Ramachandran. A chastity belt didn't work on Queen Guinevere some 1500 years ago. sites. Other nations have renounced it. Hence we fail at FTAs.       

SEC is not PAC.

Just two months ago, "Gautam Adani has surpassed Mukesh Ambani to become the richest Indian in 2024, according to the Hurun India Rich List 2024." TOI. Then yesterday, "Gautam Adani...has been indicted in New York over his role in a multibillion-dollar bribery and fraud scheme, US prosecutors said. Authorities said Adani and seven other defendants, including his nephew Sagar Adani, agreed to pay about $265 million in bribes to Indian government officials to obtain contracts expected to yield $2 billion of profit over 20 years, and develop India's largest solar plant project." What is the big deal, when "A record 251 (46%) of the 543 newly elected members (of the Lok Sabha) have criminal cases registered against them and 27 have been convicted, revealed an analysis done by Association of Democratic Reforms (ADR)." The number was 125 (23%) in 2004, 162 (30%) in 2009, 185 (34%) in 2014 and 233 MPs (43%) in 2019. With 272 MPs required for a majority, another 21 with criminal records, and India can boast of a criminal Lok Sabha. If Indians are patriotic, what business is it of the US? Apparently, Adani and former CEO Vneet Jaain "raised more than $3 billion in loans and bonds by hiding their corruption from lenders and investors." Reuters. The story starts in January 2023 when, "US-based short-seller Hindenburg Research had accused the Adani Group of fraud and 'brazen' stock price manipulation." ET. The Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) has been investigating these allegations and has issued show cause notices to seven out of 10 listed firms in the Adani Group. ET. Surely, it is SEBI's duty to detect and punish manipulation of stock prices to protect Indian investors? Instead, SEBI issued a 46-page show-notice to Hindenburg which "detailed how the US short-seller shared an advance copy of its critical report on the Adani Group with New York-based hedge fund manager Mark Kingdon two months before its public release." ET. Hindenburg made $4 million by short-selling Adani Group. Mint. In response to the show-cause notice, "The current SEBI Chairperson (Madhabi Puri Buch) and her husband, Dhaval Buch, had hidden stakes in the exact same obscure offshore Bermuda and Mauritius funds, found in the same complex nested structure, used by Vinod Adani," Hindenburg said in a report. ET. Vinod is Gautam Adani's brother based in Dubai. Buch ignored an invite from the Parliament's Public Accounts Committee (PAC) by informing it at 9.30 AM that "she and her team will not be able to appear before the panel due to 'exigencies'." BS. In short, 'shove off'. The BJP, major part of the ruling coalition, "alleged that this was part of the plan to destabilize India backed by controversial currency speculator George Soros." TOI. The FBI has issued 'wanted' posters of former RAW operative Vikash Yadav. TOI. What if more posters are issued of officials accused of accepting bribes? How long will they blame 94-year old George Soros (wikipedia)? This is beyond him.     

Frivolous may be, not nefarious.

"For the first time since 2009, India has become the leading source of international students in the United States," as "During the 2023-24 academic year, over 331,602 Indian students pursued higher education at US institutions representing a significant 23% jump from the previous year." Graduate student enrollment increased 19% to 196,567 and Indian students in Optional Practical Training (OPT) jumped 41% to 97,556. ET. "Indian students' contribution to the US economy in 2023 was significant, generating $11.8 billion, as per the International Student Economic Impact 2023." TOI. At an exchange rate of over Rs 84 to the dollar  (xe.com), students studying in the US are costing the Indian economy over Rs 930 billion. "Vice President of India, Jagdeep Dhankar, compared the rising trend of Indian students pursuing foreign education to a 'disease'," and "pointed out that in 2024 alone, around 1.3 million students going overseas for higher education drained approximately $6 billion from India's foreign exchange reserves." TOI. Those who are not accepted as students try to enter the US illegally with the help of people smugglers. "As per a Reuters investigation, one route starts in West Africa, with migrants paying up to $10,000 for multi-stop commercial flights to Nicaragua before continuing by land to the US. The second route, serving migrants from India, offers charter flights to central America and overland transfers to the US border for between $72,000 and $96,000 per person, with full payment often due after arrival in the US." TOI. People are paying from Rs 5.7 million to over Rs 8.0 million, an enormous sum in India, to enter the US illegally with the risk of being deported if caught. Why? Because, "A video of an Indian truck driver's 5-bedroom house in the US was shared on social media." HT. On the other hand, "Vir Das recently drew attention to the story of an Indian taxi driver in the US who holds an impressive background as an IIT Bombay graduate with a PhD and a former scientist. TOI. Donald Trump has won the presidential election with the promise of deporting all illegal migrants. NBC. Indians may also be caught in the net. Meanwhile, the FBI has issued 'wanted posters' of Vikash Yadav in Punjabi and Hindi, having earlier issued similar posters in English. Yadav is accused of masterminding a plot to kill US citizen Khalistani Gurpatwant Singh Pannun but Indian authorities have informed the US that he was in jail for armed robbery and is currently out on bail. TOI. "A Delhi court...granted personal exemption to Vikash Yadav from appearing in court," as his lawyers stated that, "False and frivolous allegations have been leveled against the applicant...exposing the applicant to serious threat to his life from nefarious elements." TN. Not wise to label US authorities as "nefarious elements". "More than a dozen Indian firms and two Indian citizens were sanctioned by US authorities...for 'aiding' the Russian war against Ukraine." Mint. An angry Trump could start by deporting Indians and increasing sanctions. Tit-for-tat sanctions against the US? Probably not a good idea.

Luxury from vegetables.

"Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Monday (yesterday) said that the current bank interest rates are a pain for borrowers and stressed the need for more affordable rates, particularly as businesses seek to expand." ET. Strange, because there seems to be no dearth of money for investment in India as initial public offerings (IPO) have been oversubscribed many times over. "The outlook for the Indian IPO market remains promising, with Pantomath Capital projecting that domestic companies could raise over Rs 1.5 trillion through IPOs in the next 12 months, signaling continued activity and strong investor interest ahead." ET. Also, "Promoter stake sales in the Indian equity market have reached multi-year highs," as "Retail investors, primarily through mutual funds, have been significant buyers of the stake sold by promoters." "According to a recent report by...Kotak Institutional Equities, promoters of 37 NSE 500 companies sold Rs 874 billion in the first half of the current year, marking the highest level in the past five years." Mint. All that money could be used for business expansion. Unless they want to borrow cheaply to buy assets. "Following a banner year for luxury car sales last year when several high-end car makers registered record sales, 2024 so far also been a positive year for high-performance vehicles and high-end SUVs." TOI. "Housing sales in India hit an 11-year high of 173,000 units between January and June, according to a report by global real estate consultants Knight Frank. The luxury housing segment contributed to around 41% of the real estate sector's sales growth from January to June." Mint. "A total of 25 ultra-luxury homes priced more than Rs 400 million were sold in Mumbai, Hyderabad, Gurugram and Bengaluru in the first eight months of 2024 for a collective sales value of approximately Rs 24.43 billion, Anarock data showed." HT. "It illuminates the country's plight, with its central bank constrained by high inflation from easing interest rates in response to signs of a slowing economy." Because, "For want of control over some vegetable prices, India's economic growth is suppressed." Mint. However, in August, "This being so, targeting inflation stripped of volatile fuel and fuel prices (to its core, i.e.) would surely ease RBI's job. While the idea of such a target switch is tempting, it is also inadvisable." High food prices hurt the poor badly and as the value of the rupee declines due to inflation, it "unfairly favors borrowers over lenders (and savers), since inflation reduces the real value of debt over time, unless loans are kept costly to compensate." Mint. Mint recommends that large private companies could bring inflation down by processing vegetables during seasonal production and then "could use their marketing skills and advertising resources to overcome another barrier: resistance to cooking with anything but fresh produce." But, if farmers get a lower price for vegetables they will stop producing them. Farmers anyway prefer to grow rice and wheat because "some states subsidize power and water, which helps ensure large scale cultivation," and "the Food Corporation of India, which is the procurement agency for the government, has an open-ended scheme under which it buys any amount of wheat and rice at the minimum support price (MSP)." "Therefore, there is a guaranteed return on capital," wrote Madan Sabnavis. A more effective idea is "The central government is likely to extend the term of RBI governor Shaktikanta Das, news agency Reuters reported." HT. That should bring down interest rates. You get what you give.    

Two months for peace.

"US President-elect Donald Trump has said his administration will focus on ending the Russia-Ukraine war, as he lamented the killing of people in the conflict." TOI. "Trump's re-election has the potential to upend the almost three-year conflict between Russia and Ukraine, throwing into question Washington's multibillion- dollar support for Kyiv," although, "Trump has not said how he intends to strike a peace deal on Ukraine or what terms he would propose." ET. It should be easy. All Ukraine has to do is to renounce membership of NATO and Russian President Vladimir Putin will immediately pull his troops back. Apparently, "Russia was ready to end the war and withdraw its troops in exchange for Ukrainian neutrality just a few months after the invasion began and was refused partly because of ex-British PM Boris Johnson, who pressured Kyiv into continuing the fight, David Arahamiya, the leader of the Ukraine's ruling party confirmed...on November 24," European Conservative. "Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky says he is certain the war with Russia will 'end sooner' than it otherwise would have once Donald Trump becomes US President." "Trump has consistently said his priority is to end the war...and what he describes as a drain on US resources in the form of military aid to Kyiv." BBC. However, lame duck Biden has deliberately escalated the war just two months before Trump will be sworn in on 20 January 2025 (BBC). "US President Joe Biden has allowed the first long-range US missiles by Ukraine to intensify its strikes on Russia, US officials said." TOI. Whether he is trying to trigger a severe Russian response with heavy Ukrainian casualties, producing such anger in European countries, that Trump will not be able to end the war, or he is trying to reward defense firms, or he is trying to prevent an investigation into the shady dealings of his odious son in Ukraine (NBC), possibly to finance his drug addiction (BBC), we do not know. "Shares of the biggest defense companies, which have handily beat the benchmark S&P stock index for the last two years, are expected to keep rising, according to Wall Street estimates." Reuters. Trump also wants to end the killing in the Middle East. That should be easy as well. All Hamas has to do is to release all remaining hostages and the war will stop instantly. Israel believes Hamas is still holding 97 hostages out of the 251 it had originally kidnapped. BBC. But Hamas is using the hostages, little children in schools and the sick in hospitals as human shields, as the cowards try to hide from Israeli attacks. "Throughout his campaign, Trump has vowed to bring peace to the region." "International mediators from the US, Egypt and Qatar have tried unsuccessfully to bring about a lasting cease-fire. Yet Trump has repeatedly urged Israel to 'finish the job' and destroy Hamas - but hasn't said how." AP. Will Biden try another of his nasty tricks to stop peace in Gaza, as he has done against Ukraine? He still has two months in office before the world is rid of him. For good.   

Ratings bias.

"Today, India is the world's fifth-largest and fastest-growing global economy." "Over the past decade, a majority government has implemented major reforms to fast-track growth, recapitalise banks and clampdown on NPAs." And yet, "S&P and Fitch have held on to a BBB rating for India while Moody's continues to rate India at Baa3." "These are the lowest possible sovereign credit ratings and indicate a high credit risk profile." Forbes. "India's credit rating suffers from prejudice, Fed elections and bias and credit rating agencies need to relook at it, NK Singh chairman of the 15th Finance Commission said." ET. "Questioning the three big global rating agencies for keeping India's rating static at the lowest investment grade for the last 15 years despite it moving up the ladder from 12th largest to become the fifth largest economy, Finance Ministry economists said agencies...are biased." FE. However, "CareEdge has assigned a long-term foreign currency rating of BBB- to India, two notches higher than what's provided by other rating agencies," wrote Rajani Sinha. Attaboy CareEdge. A bloody nose to the furriners. Firstly, it is doubtful that the foreign rating agencies waste huge amounts of time and money just to insult India. They are probably trying to provide guidance to their own people. "Foreign investors' assets under custody in equity totaled Rs 71.08 trillion in October, down 8.8% from Rs 77.96 trillion a month ago." In contrast, total holdings of domestic investors increased to Rs 76.80 trillion. MC. So, foreign investors are definitely not biased against India. Secondly, "India is on track to increase its workforce from 423.73 million in 2023 to 457.62 million by 2028, reflecting a net gain of 33.89 million workers, a report said." ET. That will be more than the combined populations of the US at 346.130 million and Germany at 84.370 (worldometers). In fact, the increase of 33.89 million is more than the entire population of the continent of Australia at 26.812 million (worldometers). If 457.62 people just make pakodas, as Mr Modi suggested and Mr Amit Shah defended in Parliament (HT), India will probably become at least the third richest country in the world by GDP, behind just China and the US. Thirdly, "After long years of stasis, there seems to be a flurry of activity at the Union ministry of statistics and programme implementation (MoSPI). Long-delayed surveys have been released, New surveys are being planned." "A push for change has come from the top," wrote Pramit Bhattacharya. If the government is seen to be hiding facts, can't blame foreigners if they are more careful. Finally, The difference in education between India and China. A new paper by Nitin Kumar Bharti and Li Yang finds that India has a preponderance of social-science graduates at the bachelor degree level, whereas "China's higher share of engineering and vocational graduates, combined with a higher share of primary and secondary graduates, lends itself more readily to a focus on manufacturing," the authors say. ET. And so, "India's goods trade deficit with China widened to $57.83 billion during April-October from $51.12 billion, according to data from the commerce and industry ministry." Mint. "Which area has [India] invented? Please give me an example," asked Mr NR Narayan Murthy, co-founder of Infosys. MC. Mr Murthy is very much Indian. Poor education, poor information and no innovation. Foreigners are not biased.      

One millionaire every week.

"President-elect Donald Trump has appointed long-time adviser Stephen Miller, known for his strong stance on immigration, as the deputy chief of policy for his new administration." TOI. So what? "Indian nationals, who hold a significant portion of H-1B visas, may face several challenges due to Miller's restrictive stance," and "These potential changes may discourage US companies form hiring Indian tech talent, limiting opportunities for those seeking employment in the US." India does not need the US. "Global brokerage Morgan Stanley, in its 'The New India: Why this is India's decade' report, said that the country is poised for an economic boom in the coming years, driven by factors such as offshoring, manufacturing investments, energy transition and advanced digital infrastructure. These drivers are expected to propel India to become the world's third-largest economy and stock market by 2030" TOI. In September 2023, "Union Minister of Education (MoS) Subhas Sarkar said...that India is poised to become a global knowledge superpower under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi." Indian tech experts should be able to earn millions sitting at home. In addition, "Trump announced the former acting Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) director Tom Homan would serve as the administration's 'Border Czar'." "A caravan of thousands of migrants traveling through Mexico with the hope of reaching the US has shrunk to about half its original size," as "Trump clinched the presidential election after a campaign that promised large-scale deportations of undocumented migrants and a return to fast-tracked deportations to Mexico." Reuters. Each year thousands of Indians try to enter the US, Canada and Europe illegally through the 'donkey route'. "A record 96,917 Indians were apprehended while unlawfully crossing into the US between October 2022 and September 2023." TOI. "The Gujarati exodus is a particular surprise. Why do so many people from a state where millionaires are being created every week want to risk imprisonment by trying to enter America illegally?" asked Vir Sanghvi. By 2022-23, "Gujarat's NSDP (Net State Domestic Product) soared to Rs 19.46 trillion, while Bihar's NSDP lagged at Rs 6.82 trillion." The reason is that "States like Gujarat, Karnataka and Haryana benefited substantially from Union government-backed projects," while "Bihar, Odisha and West Bengal have been systematically denied an equitable share of centrally sponsored projects, leading to their slower economic growth," wrote Sudhakar Singh & Sarish Tripathi. "For many of the government's critics, Gujarat has come to represent everything they abhor about the BJP." Which raises the question: "If resentment of Gujaratis - because we have such a  good deal - is justified then why are so many of us trying to get the hell out of Gujarat and India itself?" asks Sanghvi. And, if Gujarat is hell, despite being the only state with bullet trains (TOI), what is the rest of India? Worse than hell?    

It's not just food.

"Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal called upon RBI to cut rates, arguing that targeting food price inflation through interest rates was an 'absolutely flawed theory'. His statement came after RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das warned of upside risks to inflation from factors like food prices and said that a rate cut should not be taken for granted." TOI. The year-on-year consumer price index (CPI) inflation rate for October 2024 was 6.21%, while food price inflation came in at 10.87% (Provisional). pib.gov.in. "In September, inflation stood at 5.49%, which was a nine-month high." "Core inflation, which excludes food and fuel prices, remained stable at close to 3.7% in October." Reuters. It is not just food inflation as the minister says. The Indian rupee was around 60 to the US dollar in 2014 (Thomas Cook) and has since fallen to Rs 84.45 to one dollar this morning (xe.com). That is a fall of over 40%. The fall in the exchange rate of the rupee increases the price of imports and results in higher prices of consumer goods. The RBI has been supporting the rupee by selling dollars. Our foreign exchange reserves dropped to $682.13 billion on 1 November (ET) after climbing to $704.89 billion on 27 September (Reuters). "The Ministry of Finance's latest monthly review acknowledged consumer demand was softening." "The spending splurge post-Covid and the high profits made from exorbitantly priced premium goods saw a couple of good years for companies." "They got greedy and hiked prices." "White goods prices have seen repeated hikes. No home buyer in a major city can find a decent flat for less than Rs 5 million. The slowing of consumption today is nothing but pushback by consumers," wrote Gurbir Singh. If inflation is not a problem, as the minister says, why has the Dearness (inflation) Allowance for the pampered highly-paid government employees been hiked to 53% of basic salary? HT. Core inflation, which measures the change in prices of goods and services excluding those of food and energy sectors (Investopedia), "has averaged 3.5% in 2024-25. It averaged 6.2% and 5.3% in 2022-23 and 2023-24, respectively. So RBI has managed to control the non-food and non-fuel part of inflation." High food inflation may result in demand for higher wages. Low interest rates during the pandemic changed the savings and investing behavior and encouraged people to look for higher returns by investing their savings in stocks. If interest rates are lowered more money will flow into stock markets and bank deposits will drop. Banks will then have less money to lend for long term borrowing. This will hamper growth, wrote Vivek Kaul. If inflation continues to remain high people will be tempted to buy gold. "Analysing returns of financial assets between June 1999 and March 2021 shows that gold is an effective hedge against inflation. Inflation-adjusted or real returns on gold has always been positive over this period," wrote Pramit Bhattacharya. Finally, the government can easily bring down the cost of food by reducing the exorbitant taxes on fuel. Food is transported by trucks and tax on diesel is 50% of its retail value. cleartax.in. Instead of hectoring the RBI the government should take responsibility. You can't have your food and eat it. Can you? 

Illogical, illegal and inconvenient.

"Delhi and its neighboring cities are experiencing pollution levels that are at least 30-35 times the safe limit recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO). Every year, Delhi and northern states battle hazardous air during the winter months of October to January due to plummeting temperatures, smoke,dust, low wind speed, vehicular emissions and crop stubble burning." Air Quality Index (AQI) level below 100 is considered safe for breathing but levels in parts of Delhi touched 500 yesterday. BBC. It is not just the air, our water is poisoned as well. "Toxic foam covers the Yamuna River in Kalindi Kunj (Delhi)." "Yamuna is a tributary of river Ganga, which...passes through states like Uttarakhand and Uttar Pradesh (UP)." Untreated sewage discharged into the river in UP is polluting it severely. Mint. "An investigative report by The New York Times, published on 09 November, has claimed that the waste-to-energy (WTE) plant in southeast Delhi's Okhla is exposing one million people of the area to highly toxic emissions containing cadmium, lead, arsenic and other deadly substances. Even the residual ash from the plant contains hazardous pollutants, which are dumped in a residential area in the neighborhood, it said." TOI. Why was the NYT monitoring pollution in Delhi? It is possible that the NYT was alerted secretly by Indians, terrified of being arrested and persecuted by a vengeful government. Dozens of opposition politicians have been arrested on unproven charges. The Wire. The NYT investigated AI and soil samples from 2019-2023 and found toxic substances which can cause "a rare form of Parkinson's Disease, fetal problems, brain developmental disorders and bone, kidney and heart disease." Internal government reports showed that "the plant pumped as much as 10 times the legal amount of dioxins" used by the US in the Vietnam war. NYT. Adding to the noxious air, around 1100 trees were chopped down allegedly by the Delhi Development Authority (DDA) despite denial of permission by the Supreme Court. HT. The Court held the Lieutenant Governor of Delhi VK Saxena responsible for permitting the felling of trees by the DDA. The Hindu. The government has designed a Graded Action Plan (GRAP) which is enforced in four stages according to the severity of pollution. BS. The emphasis at every stage seems to be on punishing motor vehicles although 82% of PM2.5 emissions are caused by industrial activities and biomass burning by households for cooking and heating and only 7% of PM2.5 comes from automobiles, wrote Chandra Bhushan. Authorities want people to commute by buses to reduce the number of private vehicles in Delhi streets but the number of bus passengers has fallen from 2011-12. Irregular service and inconvenience are some reasons. Astonishingly, "a bus ride is nearly 15% more expensive than a car ride and 150% costlier than a twp-wheeler ride, making private transport more popular among the masses due to its affordability." The Print. A government plant is creating pollution, cutting trees is adding to it and buses are too expensive. They blame cars. Political expediency. Lying.    

No biscuits? The Moon and Mars affordable.

"The HSBC India Manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) stood at 57.5 in October 2024, compared with the flash estimate of 57.4 and after September's reading of 56.5. Output growth accelerated amid favorable market conditions, with new orders rising at a rate stronger than the average in nearly 20 years." MC. "HSBC India Services PMI was revised higher to 58.5 in October 2024 from a flash estimate of 57.9, following a final reading of 57.7 in September, which was the lowest in over a year. It marked the 39th consecutive month of expansion in services activity, and faster than expectations of 58.3, driven by robust sales and strong demand conditions." Rise of both manufacturing and services should indicate a rising consumer demand but, "The urban slowdown within the domestic fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) market that has hurt the financial performance of most majors in the September quarter is due to rising house prices and low wage hikes, Britannia's vice chairman and MD Varun Berry said." FE. Britannia is known for its biscuits. "There is now a recognition that the depressed demand might contribute to overall slowdown in the prospects for growth in the economy. Despite the festival season, there doesn't seem to have been much of a revival." Because, "very low levels of income for most people continues to be characteristic of the Indian economy," wrote Dipa Sinha. Low demand along with higher output should mean a fall in prices but, "Year-on-year inflation rate based on All India Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the month of October is 6.21%." Food price inflation rose to 10.87% (Provisional) in October. pib.gov.in. Higher spending on food means people are forced to cut down on other expenses. Conditions must be so bad that, "In a bid to boost demand, industry lobby group CII has proposed that the Centre issue 'consumption vouchers' to citizens in the lower income group, which can be used to buy specified goods and services within six-eight months, while also recommending a 40% hike in daily wages under MGNREGA and a 33% increase for PM-KISAN beneficiaries." TOI. "For the past 15 years, incomes of ordinary Indians - those between the top 15% and 50% of the population - are stagnating. Over 120 million people between 18 and 35 are neither in education nor in employment." "The average resident of UP and Bihar continues to earn less than the average Bangladeshi or Nepali," wrote Rathin Roy. However, we can still reach for the Moon and Mars. "Experts around the world have marvelled at how little Indian Space Research Organisation's (ISRO) Moon, Mars and solar missions have cost. India spent $74 million on the Mars orbiter Mangalyaan and $75 million on last year's historic Chandrayaan-3 - less than $100 million spent on the sci-fi thriller Gravity." BBC. We may not afford biscuits but the Moon could be made of green cheese (wikipedia). And it's free. 

Problems of returning home.

A big area of concern with the election of Donald Trump as president of the US is "how far Trump will implement his anti-immigration agenda, especially his threat to deport illegal migrants." "A Pew Research Report puts undocumented Indian immigrants in US at over 725,000. Indians with qualifications waiting for US green card number over 1 mn." "India cannot pretend this is not its problem that's being exported to the West." And, "We must prepare a plan to bring back students and undocumented immigrants the West wants to send back," wrote R Jagannathan. That is well meaning but extremely naive. How will the government provide jobs with salaries matching those in Western countries? And, if the government gives preference to deported Indians over local youths it will create enormous anger. Many of those deported may have children who are citizens of the countries of their birth and fees for international students are very high in India. Britannica. A report from the International Labor Organization (ILO) published in March stated, "The youth unemployment rate has increased with the level of education, with the highest rates among those with a graduate degree or higher and higher among women than men. In 2022, the unemployment rate among youths was six times greater among persons with a secondary or higher level education (at 18.4%) and nine times higher among graduates (at 29.1%) than for persons who cannot read or write." Of the uneducated workers, "Unpaid family workers have contributed to 37% of the growth in India's workforce since 2017-18." "Unpaid family workers accounted for 18.3% of the workers in 2022-23 PLFS (Periodic Labour Force Survey) compared to 20.9% share of regular wages workers," wrote Abhishek Jha. "During the fiscal year from 2022-23, the unemployment rate of people aged 15 and above in Haryana stood 6.1%," according to India's Ministry of Labour and Emplyment, "But for people aged 15 to 24, the number was significantly higher - 45.4% across the country in the same year." CNN. Around 730,000 Indian students are studying in Canada, Australia and the UK and all three countries are cutting down on visas for Indians. ET. Apart from top students with scholarships, most of these so-called students are disguised migrants determined to stay in Western countries any way they can. As shown by thousands of students who queued up outside Tandoori Flame restaurant in Canada hoping for jobs as waiters and service staff. HT. Sweeping floors and cleaning toilets in Canada is preferable to returning to India because the label of Non-Resident Indian (NRI) bestows great respect back home. And this brings us to Canada. "Canada was the most popular relocation destination among all the countries reviewed, according to Jobseeker." And, "Despite tensions, Canada remained particularly popular among job seekers and those looking to relocate from India. ET. Relations are so poisoned that, "Once considered 'immigrant-friendly', Canada has seen a surge of racist remarks directed at Indian-origin immigrants both offline and online in the last few months." "According to the Canadian Race Relations Foundation, hate crimes against South Asians increased by 143% between 2019 and 2022." TOI. Politicians and bureaucrats don't care because they are subsidised by life-long handouts of taxpayer money. But for thousands, migrating was a way of surviving with a little human dignity. That is closing.  

Multi-millionaires and food vouchers.

 "Urban and rural markets have shown sequential recovery in consumer demand and rural areas continue to surpass urban areas in volume growth across most regions in India, according to Nielsen IQ." Fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) industry "witnessed a 5.7% value-based growth and 4.1% volume growth on a 1.5% price growth in the July to September quarter." ET. "India is home to more than 220,000 people with a taxable income of over Rs 10 million. This is a five-fold increase over the past decade. Even more dramatically, 100,000 of them joined the group of high earners in just three years, since the onset of the Covid pandemic." ET. That is very odd because a most stringent lockdown was imposed on the whole nation from 25 March to 14 April 2020 and "was extended four times, each time with gradual relaxations". HT. The total shutdown of all economic activity in the whole country resulted in "GDP at constant (2011-12) Prices in Q1 (April-June) 2020-21 is estimated at Rs 26.90 trillion, as against Rs 35.35 trillion in Q1 of 2019-20 showing a contraction of 23.9%." pib,gov.in. The actual contraction in the GDP was 24.4%. "GDP at Constant Prices in Q1 of 2021-22 is estimated at Rs 32.38 trillion, as against Rs 26.95 trillion in Q1 of 2020-21, showing a growth of 20.1% as compared to a contraction of 24.4% in Q1 2020-21," that data from MoSPI stated. Mint. Hence, even after a record 20.1% growth in the Q1 of 2021-22, the GDP was smaller at 32.38 trillion than in the Q1 of 2019-20 at Rs 35.35 trillion. Strange that in the 3 years since Covid a record 100,000 people have increased their taxable income to Rs 10 million. There is no mention of how many of them are politicians or government officials. So bad is the consumer demand that, "In a bid to boost demand, industry lobby group CII has proposed that the Centre issue 'consumption vouchers' to citizens in the lower income group, which can be used to buy specified goods and services within six-eight months, while also recommending a 40% hike in daily wages under MGNREGA and a 33% increase in PM-KISAN beneficiaries." TOI. When business fat cats are calling for handouts, things must be pretty desperate. India's GDP grew by 7.1% and 8.2% in the last two years and by 7.2% in the first quarter of 2024-25 and yet, "consumer goods sales have been rising only modestly, almost sluggishly. Bank credit is growing well below earlier rates." And "we are now witnessing something close to a crash in microfinance institutions (MFIs) that lend to the poor and small businesses," wrote Swaminathan SA Aiyar. How is it that the GDP is growing at breakneck speed and multi-millionaires are doubling every three years while millions need 'consumption vouchers' to buy essentials? Because, "India might be among the top five economies in the world in terms of its total GDP, but is also ranked 136 in terms of per capita income." The All India Financial Inclusion Survey (NAFIS) 2021-22, just released by NABARD shows that "the average monthly household income is Rs 12, 698 to Rs 13,661 for agricultural households and Rs 11,438 in non-agricultural households," wrote Dipa Sinha. "So, on average a rural person has an income of less than Rs 35,000 per annum while the per capita GDP of India for 2021-22 was almost five times (Rs 1,71,498)." With consumer price index (CPI) inflation at 5.49% and food inflation at 9.24% (mospi.gov.in), a person earning Rs 35,000 a year will not afford even two meals a day, let alone three. We are at 136 in per capita income, but rural income must be near the lowest level in the world. No wonder, no one talks about it. Total silence.