Friday, September 20, 2024

The rupee is getting stronger.

"The rupee hit a new record low of Rs 83.99 against the US dollar on 5 September." "However, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) intervened in the foreign exchange market via dollar sales, which prevented the rupee hitting the psychologically crucial mark of Rs 84 per dollar." BS. In fact, the rupee did go above 84 to the dollar on 10, 11 and 12 September, the highest being 84.015 to one dollar on 12 September, but closed below the 84 mark everyday. That was last week. Yesterday the rupee closed at 83.474 to one dollar, a jump of over 50 paise. Investing.com. "One of the major catalysts for the rupee's rise is the US Federal Reserve's decision to implement a significant 50 basis points cut in interest rates." "This rally is not an isolated event but part of a larger trend where the performance of Asian currencies, particularly the Chinese yuan, has had a cascading effect across the region." However, "A stronger rupee may negatively impact the price competitiveness of Indian goods in global markets, making it harder for exporters to maintain their profit margins." The Statesman. Even as the rupee was flirting with the 84 mark, "India's foreign exchange reserves rose by $223 million, reaching a record high of $689.458 billion for the week ended 13 September, according to the RBI." TOI. But, even with a weaker rupee, India's "Goods exports dipped by 9.32% year-on-year to $34.71 billion in August." While "India's imports surged to a record high of $64.36 billion, year-on-year increase of 3.3%." That "pushed the trade deficit to $29.65 billion in August, the second highest ever monthly gap between the values of the country's exports and imports." "India's central bank Chief Shaktikanta Das has pulled off a rare balancing act: Clamping down on volatility in the rupee while allowing it to drift lower to aid Prime Minister Narendra Modi's export ambitions." ET. A stronger rupee is likely to suck in more imports as they become relatively cheaper and hurt exports, thus increasing the trade deficit. The RBI could follow the US Fed and reduce its own interest rate which was held at 6.5% for the ninth successive time in August. TOI. "India's consumer price index (CPI) inflation in August stood at 3.65%." BS. "Indian banks are facing a daunting dilemma as urban savers increasingly flock to higher-yielding instruments like mutual funds and stocks, undermining banks' traditional advantage of low-cost deposits." Mr Das also said "the RBI is worried...as credit growth is outpacing deposit growth, which could lead to liquidity challenges for the banking sector." ET. If interest rates are lowered, more people may look to invest in stocks. "Indian stock market benchmarks - the Sensex and the Nifty 50 - jumped over a percent each to hit fresh record highs in morning trade on Friday, September 20." Mint. As the markets soar to ever new highs they attract more punters looking for quick profits. What happens if the markets see a genuine correction, lasting for a few weeks to months, no one knows. Mr Das is due to retire in December. NSB. Could turn out to be very lucky.    

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