Monday, September 30, 2024

It'll be as usual.

"Foreign investors have poured Rs 573.59 billion into Indian equities in September, making it the highest inflow in nine months, mainly driven by a rate cut by the US Federal Reserve," and "With this infusion, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) investment in equities has surpassed the Rs 1 trillion mark in 2024, data showed." BT. "Investors turned richer by $7 trillion after Friday's (20 Sept) rally as FIIs (foreign institutional investors) invested a provisional Rs 140.6405 billion - the eighth highest in a single day since FIIs started investing in Indian markets. Of this Rs 70-80 billion was on account of investment by global passive funds, and the rest because of active buying." Mint. "Global companies and financial sponsors are keen to keep exploring both mergers and acquisitions and initial public offerings as they seek to tap into the country's economic growth according to top executives from JP Morgan Chase & Co." ET. "When the global economy is caught in geopolitical trends and slow growth and there is a lot of noise about recession, the world is cheering India's growth story." CEO of JP Morgan, Jamie Dimon thinks India can become a $7 trillion economy by the end of the decade because Prime Minister Narendra Modi is "strong". ET. "Bajaj Housing Finance recently entered the primary market with an initial public offering (IPO) aiming to raise Rs 65.60 billion, but drew bids exceeding Rs 3.2 trillion." Similarly, PN Gadgil Jewellers wanted to raise Rs 11 billion but got bids of over Rs 480 billion, Saraswati Saree Depot wanted Rs 1.6 billion but got Rs 170 billion and Boss Solutions wanted Rs 80 million but got bids of nearly Rs 11 billion. These companies are unlikely to generate high returns, so why such a frenzy of bids? Probably because, "The large sums of money chasing IPOs tells us that these investors do not see other viable investment opportunities available to them," wrote Vivek Kaul. "A total of 10 new age companies have made their stock market debuts so far," but there were "just three startups listed on the exchanges in 2022, followed by five last year." "The number of unique mutual fund investors has swelled from 22 million in March 2020 to 47 million as of June 2024," and "the number of unique demat (dematerialised or digital) account holders has ballooned from 36 million as of March 2020 to nearly 100 million now." This has resulted in a flood of liquidity. Usually demand falls as prices rise but in stocks, "When the price of a stock goes up, demand rises too, especially during a bull market," wrote Abhishek Mukherjee. As prices rise, it draws in more investors eager to make a quick return and this leads to a further rise in prices, drawing in more investors. This is a naturally occurring Ponzi Scheme wrote Nobel Prize winning economist Robert Schiller, wrote Kaul. According to the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI), 91% of individuals lost money in F&O trading in 2023-24. "Proprietors traders earned about Rs 330 billion of gross profits in the F&O segment in 2023-24, followed by FIIs, who earned about Rs 280 billion in gross profits. Individuals and others incurred a loss of Rs 610 billion in 2023-24," Money is finite. India's nominal GDP or GDP at current prices was estimated at Rs 295.36 trillion in 2023-24. pib.gov.in. It looks huge but isn't much when divided by a population of 1.454 billion (worldometer). At some point individuals will run out of cash. Professionals will walk away with huge profits. Brokers and fund managers will be arrested. Politicians will lecture. As usual.    

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