It's not the dollar.

"In this year, the dollar index, which measures the performance of the greenback against a basket of currencies is up 14%, while the rupee's fall is at about 10%," wrote Mayur Shetty. If the rupee falls because of "domestic factors like inflation or current account deficit, it is the rupee that is said to be weakening. However, if the drivers of change are global factors like money flowing into US dollar assets, then the dollar is said to be gaining." The rupee is not weakening, said Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman. "The dollar is strengthening incessantly." "I think the Indian rupee has performed much better than many other emerging market currencies." BT. "In absolute terms, the current account deficit (CAD) stood at $23.90 billion in the first quarter of the fiscal year 2022-23, its highest since the December quarter of 2012. However, as a percentage of GDP, the CAD was at 2.8%, its highest in nearly four years." Reuters.  "CAD will certainly widen further despite the moderation in crude oil prices," said Rupa Nege Nitsure. "Going by the underlying trends, India's CAD may be 3.5-3.7% of GDP in FY23." "India has always had a trade deficit thanks to our fetish for buying gold," wrote Shetty. So, it's the fault of Indian citizens. "India's gold imports, which have a bearing on the country's CAD, rose 6.4 percent to $12.9 billion during April-July this fiscal due to healthy demand." TOI. In the financial year 2021-22, India's gold imports rose 33.34% over the previous year to $46.14 billion. It was $34.62 billion in 2020-21. BS. Is this an illogical "fetish" of stupid Indians? After all, you do not get any interest on physical gold, you have to pay for safekeeping in a bank and its value may drop. But then, "Central banks bought 400 metric tonnes of gold in the September quarter, by World Gold Council data," wrote David Fickling. "All are from nations facing problems. Turkey, whose lira slumped 52% over the year through September, added 95.5 tonnes to its gold holdings in the same period. Egypt bought 44.8 tonnes, while its pound fell 20%. India's 40.5-tonne purchase was matched by an 8.7% rupee weakening." One metric tonne of gold cost $54.82 million on 9 November 2022. Daily Metal. So, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) spent $2220.21 million to buy 40.5 MT of gold. That has to be a humongous "fetish". With the US weaponising the dollar the RBI may be trying to hedge its bets. While the rupee has depreciated 8.7%, diminishing its buying power by that extent, the RBI has increased interest rate by a cumulative 1.9% to 5.9%, TOI, even though retail inflation rose to a 5-month high of 7.41% in September. Mint. That means savers are losing heavily because banks pay less interest on fixed deposits while charging higher on loans. State Bank of India (SBI) reported "its highest-ever quarterly profit after tax (PAT) of Rs 13,264.62 crore (Rs 132.6462 billion), up 74% year-on-year, for the quarter ended September 30, 2022." ET. Just as the RBI is hedging against the US by buying gold, Indians are hedging against the RBI. CAD will rise, rupee will fall. It's not the dollar. It's the rupee.     

Garlands of Gujarat.

Gurmeet Ram Rahim, the self-styled spiritual head of the Dera Sacha Sauda, "convicted of rape and murder, is out on parole for 40 days, the timing of his release conveniently tied with a Haryana by-election and Himachal assembly polls, the two states where the Dera has a considerable following," wrote Rajdeep Sardesai. Haryana has a BJP government. A video on social media showed Haryana deputy speaker Ranbir Singh Gangwa "bowing in reverence" before Ram Rahim and addressing him as "Pitaji", or 'father'. TOI. Gangwa credited his electoral success to Ram Rahim, saying "when the administration fails, Babaji's blessings work". "On 30 October 2022, a pedestrian suspension bridge over the Machchu River in the city of Morbi in Gujarat, collapsed causing the deaths of at least 135 people and injuries to more than 180 others." wikipedia. Even as one family in Morbi was mourning the deaths of 12 of its members, CNN, the civil hospital, where some of the injured had been admitted was being hastily painted before a visit by the prime minister. HT. The idea that the grief of so many families "can be hidden from public gaze by an extra coat of paint is appalling" finds Sardesai. Who cares? On 6 November, "Raising chants of 'Aa Gujarat banavyu che' (I have made this Gujarat), Prime Minister Narendra Modi...officially launched the Bharatiya Janata Party's campaign for the Gujarat assembly elections." HT. In the same state of Gujarat, "Eleven convicts in the Bilkis Bano gangrape case, released from jail under the Gujarat government's remission policy were greeted with garlands." India Today. These celebrated 11 men "were convicted for the gangrape of a pregnant Muslim woman and murder of 14 members of her family, including her three-year-old daughter, according to a court document," BBC. A three-year-old child and garlands of marigold. Must be so proud. In BJP ruled Karnataka, a 30-year-old woman and her twin babies died during labor at home after being "shooed away (from the government hospital) as she did not have an Aadhaar card or Thayi card which is issued by the Karnataka government to enable pregnant women avail free treatment including delivery services at government hospitals." TOI. "The deaths of 70 children in the Gambia, linked to cough syrups made in India," because they contained "unacceptable amounts of diethylene glycol and ethylene glycol as contaminants" was confirmed by laboratory analysis, found the WHO. BBC. India has the highest number of malnourished children in the world and came in 107 out of 121 countries in the Global Hunger Index 2022. BS. The government immediately rejected the report, criticizing it as "biased and disconnected from ground reality", HT. And, instantly the empty stomachs of hungry children filled up. Not just in hunger, we are below Pakistan in freedom of the media. Dawn. The Pakistan media is reporting Imran Khan's long march but the Indian media is almost completely ignoring Rahul Gandhi's march in India. "Some of the best intellectuals who shaped India's media probity and professionalism are currently in jail as alleged left-wing extremists. While Kashmiri journalists have borne the brunt of the pro-Hindutva state's ire, no one who dissents is spared elsewhere." Where murder is celebrated, hunger is no big deal. Just arrest the journalists.

Growth by repetition.

"Chief Economic Advisor (CEA) to the government V Anantha Nageswaran said that India is in a stable situation and the growth momentum is good despite the multiple crises taking place simultaneously and getting entangled with each other." ET. He said that "banks are lending now and credit is rising at 17 percent," "there are signs of recovery of employment in the formal sector and there are indications that investments are picking up." He suggested that "The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) should let the rupee to weaken gradually and use foreign exchange reserves 'judiciously'." ET. "Nageswaran's comments today are also seen as the first official government comment since concerns about waning currency reserves emerged earlier this year." "The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected 6.8 percent real growth for this year and 6.1 percent for next year for India." ET. Nageswaran disgreed, saying "maybe there could be 0.5-0.8 percent addition to the 6 percent baseline numbers." Visiting the US in October, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said, "The rupee is not sliding, the dollar is strengthening incessantly." India Today. On 3 November, Nageswaran said, "If you look at the rupee's performance in the course of the current year, it is one of the better ones." HBN. "This year, since the conflict broke out, it's a story of the dollar's strength. It's not a story of the rupee's weakness." And in September, Nageswaran said India is not defending the rupee and the RBI is taking necessary steps to ensure that the movement of the rupee is gradual and in line with market trends. Zee. "Given that western investors have $3.5 billion invested in China, the sense I got from our meetings is that a substantial amount is going to leave that country. Out of that $3.5 trillion, even if half a trillion comes to India, that will virtually double the FII investments in our country," said Saurabh Mukherjea. One dollar is equivalent to Rs 81.96 this morning. xe.com. So, $500 billion will amount to a colossal more than Rs 40 trillion, which would be equal to the total government spending estimated in the budget for 2022-23. PRS. Can India handle such a deluge of dollars when our total foreign currency reserves were $531.08 billion on 28 October? ET. "India is currently one of the most alluring emerging markets for investment. Our country has shown significant developments in terms of key macro-parameters," wrote Jimeet Modi. The stock market index the Sensex may hit 100,000 by April 2024. ET. It is at 61,185 this morning. HT. Given so much wealth being generated in India why did Food Minister Piyush Goyal say that "The country needs 108 million tonnes of foodgrains every year to support 80 crore (800 million) poor people who get 10 kg of rice or wheat every month." Most Indians don't understand economics. If everything is so great why keep repeating? Will repetition make it happen?

Tuesday, 8 November.

"The world - and India - is sinking into recession." "Surprisingly, tax revenue is soaring, creating a comfortable fiscal situation," wrote Swaminathan S Anklesaria Aiyar. "Ashima Goyal, member of the Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Committee, suggests this is a consequence of demonetisation (DM)." Some experts suggested that DM cost 2-2.5% in GDP growth but "official data put GDP growth at 8.3% in the DM year 2016-17. This contradicts the notion that DM was a disaster." In India, the financial year runs from 1 April to 31 March of the following year. cleartax. Demonetisation took place on 8 November 2016, when the government suddenly abolished all Rs 1000 and Rs 500 banknotes with just 4 hours notice. wikipedia. Half the financial year was therefore already over. The GDP grew by 8.3%, but is it possible that it could have grown by 10% or 12% had it not been for DM? We will never know. What we do know, however, is that our GDP growth fell off precipitously thereafter, to 7% in 2017-18, 6.1% in 2018-19 and a paltry 4% in 2019-20, BT, which was the last full financial year before the Covid pandemic struck. That is a fall of 4.3% in 4 years. Then there are taxes. "In the first half of the fiscal year, collection of direct taxes (income and corporate tax) rose 24% and GST (goods and services tax) collections a whopping 33%." This is apparently due to DM and "a much wider crackdown on black money including tougher rules and laws on real estate and money laundering and expanded Tax Information Network." "This April, a time when wholesale prices were up 15% from a year ago" Hindustan Unilever's (HUL) turnover crossed Rs 500 billion for the year. howindia-lives.com. Dabur's revenues crossed Rs 100 billion for the first time. NielsenIQ reported that volumes of fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) sector declined by 2.6% year-on-year but the sector grew 9.6% in value terms because of higher prices. However, small manufacturers with annual sales below Rs 1 billion saw a "13% drop in revenues from a year earlier". Operating margins for large companies was 16-19%, for medium companies it was less than 7.6% and margins for small companies turned negative. No wonder,  corporate tax collections grew. The stock market index S&P BSE Sensex, climbed from 29620 in 2016-17 to 58568 in 2021-22. The price/earnings (PE) ratio climbed from 20.62 to 29.53. Large companies and rich people got richer. " As for GST, "Indirect tax buoyancy corresponds directly to inflation and high inflation does translate into high indirect tax buoyancy, explains DK Srivastava, chief policy advisor, EY India," wrote Gireesh Chandra Prasad. Inflation rates in India have been consistently higher rates in the EU, US and the world. worlddata. Daily wage migrant laborers are able to find work for less than 15 days every month, according to the non-profit Aajeevika Bureau. ET. Thus, while the government and the rich are raking it in, the poor are being savaged by high prices and falling earnings. Is Aiyar writing serious journalism or oily sycophancy? DM was on Tuesday, 8 November 2016, and the US was holding elections. Tomorrow is Tuesday, 8 November and there are elections in the US. Ominous. And worrying. 

Going back to ether.

"When Prime Minister Narendra Modi barrels around India to support allies running for state government elections his war cry is: 'ab ki bar double engine ki sarkar'," meaning a BJP government at the Center as well as in all 28 states in India. Dawn. The Bharatiya Janata Party, or BJP, controls 17 state governments and one Union Territory, either by itself or as the largest party in the National Democratic Alliance (NDA). wikipedia. However, "double engine" could also be interpreted as - "The first engine pulls India along the road to prosperity and modernity," while "Modi's second engine, fueled by febrile imaginations, pushes India towards emulating some kind of Hindu rashtra from an idyllic past." Like Pakistan's engine #2 has seen "Pakistan's regular schools have now come to resemble madressahs with the difference shrinking by the year." Surely, India and Pakistan cannot be compared? Or can they? "A scientific conference organised by the government of India has drawn sharp criticism from a section of scientists for promoting non-science such as 'Panchmahabhoot as the fundamental blocks of the universe instead of atoms' and the existence of 'ether' that was discarded by modern science 150 years ago." DH. The conference brochure claims "the entire universe is made up of five primal elements or the Panchmahabhoot: Agni (fire), Akash (sky), Vayu (air), Jala (water) and Prithvi (earth)." Previously, Modi has claimed that Lord Ganesha's elephant head is an example of plastic surgery and Karna's birth was through genetic engineering in ancient India. altnews.in. Last month, "Union Home Minister Amit Shah unveiled the Hindi version of three MBBS (Bachelor of Medicine & Bachelor of Surgery) textbooks in Bhopal." TOI. "With this Madhya Pradesh (MP) would be the first state in the country to start medical education in Hindi." MP has a BJP government. Uttarakhand, also with a BJP government, will offer MBBS education in Hindi from the next academic session. NDTV. Medical science changes constantly. It may be possible to translate 3 textbooks but how will they translate the thousands of research papers? "English is now so prevalent that in some non-English  speaking countries, like Germany, France, and Spain, English-language academic papers outnumber publications in the country's own language several times over." The Atlantic. "There is absolutely no parent in India who does not want to send their children to an English medium school." The Print. Ask politicians where their children study and "The answer will show how English has become the new Sanskrit: the language the elite use to deny knowledge, and thus better opportunities, to those they seek to exclude from the corridors of power." "Modi's deepest damage isn't Hindu-Muslim divide but the PM's mogic dumbing us down," wrote Yogendra Yadav. India is perhaps too diverse to become like Pakistan. But, why try? 

Already happening.

"The assumption of monetary policy being the sole or primary instrument for containing inflation is wrong on several grounds, theoretical as well as empirical," wrote Prof Himanshu. Monetary policy does not apply to India because, " While some part of inflation in India is driven by external factors,...inflation lately has been largely driven by local food prices." "Unlike fuel and commodity prices, which are driven by international price movements, food inflation is largely domestic." But "wholesale price inflation has been above 10% for more than a year now and inflation in farm inputs has been above 30%". "The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs chaired by Prime Minister Narendra Modi...approved an additional Rs 51,875 crore (Rs 518.75 billion) subsidy for phosphatic and potassic (P&K) for fertilizers for the rabi or winter-sown season, amid high global prices." HT. This is in addition to the record estimate of Rs 2.5 trillion for fertilizer subsidy for the whole of 2022-23. Prof Himanshu recommends increase in progressive taxation, which means higher corporate and personal income taxes to help the rural economy which has seen a fall in real wages in the last 2 years. The government is already doing it. In addition to the enormous fertilizer subsidy, "The Central government has decided to extend the free ration scheme for three more months" till December 2022, at a cost of Rs 447.62 billion. NDTV.  "For 2022-23, the Centre has allocated Rs 2.06 lakh crore (Rs 2.06 trillion) for food subsidy. This is 97% of the budget for the Department of Food and Public Distribution, which is in charge of the PDS (Public Distribution System)." India Spend. India possibly has the largest number of social schemes for the poor. "In the 2022 Union budget of India, there are 740 central sector (CS) schemes and 65 (+7+) centrally sponsored schemes." wikipedia. "The country needs 108 million tonnes of foodgrains every year to support 80 crore (800 million) poor people who get 10 kg of rice or wheat every month, under the Prime Minister Garib Kalyan Yojana, said Union Food Minister Piyush Goyal." ET. Corporate tax rates were cut in 2019, with an estimated revenue loss of Rs 1.45 trillion. pib.gov.in. In fact, monetary policy in India is still very soft. The Reserve Bank (RBI) has increased interest rates by a total of 190 basis points to 5.9%, TOI, while consumer price (CPI) inflation was 7.41% in September. TIE. The US Federal Reserve has raised rates for a total of 375 basis points to 3.75-4%. CNBC. As a result, the rupee fell to 83.02 to one dollar on 19 October, ET, but has managed to rise to 81.78 to one dollar this morning. xe.com. The weaker the rupee, the higher will be the costs of fuel and fertilizers. Higher interest rates in India could make the rupee stronger and automatically bring down cost of imports. After all the RBI is doing just that. "To help arrest rupee's record fall, the RBI has now burned $111.37 billion from its forex coffer." ET. What is the point in increasing taxes on companies when the RBI is desperately trying to keep borrowing costs low to encourage investments? Inflation hurts the poor the most. Solutions must be rational. Not ideological.    

Good news only in India.

"India's Chief Economic Adviser V Anantha Nageswaran is sanguine about India clocking better economic growth than what the IMF has projected for next year." ET. "The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected 6.8 percent real growth for this year and 6.1 percent for next year for India." Formalisation of the economy because of digital infrastructure could cause higher growth, "maybe there could be 0.5-0.8 percent addition to the 6 percent baseline numbers". Indeed, "The S&P Global India services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI)....showed the service PMI rose to 55.1 in October from 54.3 in September." ET. "According to survey participants, sustained increases in new business boosted output." The Manufacturing PMI "rose to 55.3 in October from September's 55.1" "as demand and output remained solid, encouraging firms to hire workers at the fastest pace in nearly three years." ET. "Production of eight infrastructure industries that comprise the core sector recovered to grow at 7.9 percent in September - a three-month high - owing to a favorable base effect and double-digit growth in output of fertilisers, cement and electricity." BS. "The cumulative growth of the core sector in the first half of FY23 (April-September) was recorded at 9.6 percent." "Even as small-sized loans are accounting for bigger shares in bank credit portfolios, larger businesses increased their financing reliance on banks in September," so that "On a year-on-year (y-o-y) basis, non-food bank credit increased 17% in September 2022." ET. Naturally, "GST collections for the month of October stood at Rs 1.52 lakh crore (Rs 1.52 trillion), according to data shared by finance ministry." ET. Amidst this deluge of good news, "India's seasonally adjusted New Export Orders index also rose to its highest level since May," wrote Harsha Jethmalani. "This is a steep contrast to what some other Asian economies are experiencing amid fears of a global recession." "The moot question is for how long India can stay immune to the trend of slowing Asian exports," wrote Madan Sabnavis. "Our real economy is resilient because it is domestic-oriented. Growth emanates from consumption, which is largely domestic," so that "Our exports-to- GDP ratio at around 12.13% provides a shield, as slowdowns typically mean that export demand declines." " A negative of being less globalized, thus, has worked to our advantage." If Indian money is going round in circles, is it real growth? A recession in the West will still affect us. "Demand for software services would come down, and also the flow of remittances. These two have been major cushions for India's current account balance for several years." "India is not an outlier in its pursuit of local production aimed at import substitution." Mint. But, "Even if a single nation could somehow produce all its needs by itself, doing so would by punitively costly for its consumers. A failed attempt was the pre-1991 story of India, when we kept local producers shielded from global competition by high import duties and thus had to pay higher prices for worse products than people did in open economies." Maybe that's why we can't control inflation. And never will. 

Paint covers all.

"More than 130 people died, mostly women, children, and the elderly, after a suspension bridge, noted to be an 'engineering marvel', on Machchhu river in Gujarat's Morbi city collapsed on Sunday (30 October) evening after it was reopened after renovation." News18. "A private operator had carried out the repair work of the bridge for nearly seven months before it was reopened to the public on Gujarati New Year day celebrated on October 26." "There was a rush of people on the bridge, which was reopened for public just four days back following the renovation work, when it snapped around 6.30 pm." The bridge was built in the 1880s during British rule. wikipedia. "There were more than 500 people on the bridge at the time of collapse, far exceeding the official capacity of 125. Security footage of the bridge showed the structure shaking violently and people holding on to cables and fencing on either side of the bridge before the walkway gave way." "According to PTI, an eye witness said some people were seen jumping on the bridge and pulling its wires. He added that the bridge may have collapsed due to the weight of the crowd on it."  moneycontrol. Gujarat is a 'dry state'. meaning alcohol consumption is forbidden in the state since 1 May 1960. wikipedia. Even so, is Gujarat so devoid of entertainment that hundreds of people rushed there during a public holiday when India is full of bridges over rivers (wikipedia)? Herewith a list of 8 famous cable-stayed bridges in other states in India. Zee News. It has never been known for people of other states of India to jump on bridges for entertainment. Pictures (yahoo) show the bridge completely buckled in 3-4 places, resembling a structure made out of bamboo rather than one of steel. According to a police officer the company just painted the cables but did not change them. TOI. "Sources said the contractor had been given time until December to complete the renovation, but the reopening was advanced to coincide with Diwali and the Gujarati New Year with an eye to footfall." According to charges filed, the contractor was not qualified to repair bridges, "Oreva group which makes clocks and e-bikes, was given the contract for repairing by Morbi Municipality," cables were not replaced but the flooring was replaced with four-layered aluminium sheets, which increased its weight. HT. In the agreement between Oreva and Morbi Municipality, reviewed by The Indian Express, there was no reference on the number of visitors allowed on the bridge, and it said that there would be "no interference by the governmental, non-governmental, nagarpalika of corporation or any other agency". DH. Officials awarded the contract to the company knowing their lack of expertise. Officials must have been aware of the capacity of the bridge. Officials must have seen the hundreds of visitors. They are primarily responsible and must be held to account. Meanwhile, the Morbi civil hospital was painted before the visit of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. apparently to ensure a good photo-op. HT. Lesson: a lick of paint hides the ugly truth. Atmanirbhar (self reliance).

Rupee gymnastics.

"India's first digital rupee pilot project has been rolled out by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). Digital rupee will be used for issuing virtual currency for transactions in government securities." Zee. "The money will be in virtual form just like other cryptocurrencies but the digital rupee will not be decentralised, it will be regulated by the RBI." "It is substantially not different from banknotes, but being digital it is likely to be easier, faster and cheaper." "India's banks reported 248 data breaches by hackers and miscreants by June 2018 and March 2022, the government informed Parliament." moneycontrol. In October, "BNB Chain, a blockchain linked to the Binance cryptocurrency exchange, disclosed an exploit on a cross-chain bridge that drained around $100 million in digital assets." The Hacker News. "Blockchain analytics firm Chainalysis, in August, estimated that $2 billion worth of cryptocurrency had been stolen in 13 cross-chain bridge attacks, accounting for 69% of total funds stolen in 2022." Will the RBI guarantee against any cyber attack? If not, it is just to save money in printing banknotes and for surveillance. "In July, the RBI permitted international trade to be invoiced, denominated and settled in Indian Rupee. Market forces would determine the rate of exchange of trade." WION. Who will insure against any devaluation of the rupee? Internationalisation would save costs of holding foreign exchange reserves, will protect against external shocks, will mitigate currency risk for Indian business and "the bargaining power of Indian business would improve adding weight to the Indian economy, enhancing India's global stature and respect", said Deputy Governor of RBI T Rabi Sankar. ET. However, such a move is not devoid of 'real risks'. If a foreign company transacts in Indian rupees will it become a victim of India's ferociously punitive tax laws? If a rupee transaction has to go through the RBI, will it apply Tax Deducted at Source (TDS) laws or the Withholding Tax laws, forcing the foreign company to keep begging for a refund for months? "The RBI is working closely with the government to enable international settlement of government securities and incorporation of rupee-denominated bonds in Global bond indices." WION. However, "India has ruled out any changes to tax policies that will make it easier for the nation's bonds to be included in global indices, according to people familiar with the matter." ET. India had foreign direct investment (FDI) of $83.5 billion in 2021-22, "However, as of October 2022, none of the top 50 Fortune 500 companies have chosen to locate their Asia-Pacific headquarters in the country," wrote Palakh Jain & Shreya Ganguly. "In particular, India stands to gain from liberalizing stringent income tax laws for foreign nationals." India is probably the only country in the world which forces citizens to link income tax payments with its biometric Aadhar card. cleartax.in. Why should foreigners want to be treated like criminals? Internationalisation needs international courtesy. For foreigners and for citizens. Not rupee gymnastics.

Who is gaining?

"Europe is a garden and most of the rest of the world is a jungle that could invade this garden. Thus spake Josep Borell, foreign policy chief of the EU some days ago, addressing a gathering of young European diplomats," wrote Sandipan Deb. Starting in 5000 BC, there has not been one day that people were not slaughtering each other in this garden of Europe. wikipedia. Borell claims that the EU is not "blindly following" orders from the US but, "EU countries are buying gas at sky-high rates from the US and China, which is reselling Russian gas to them at a nice profit." On 26 September 2022, Nord Stream 1&2 pipelines, supplying Russian gas directly to Germany, were attacked in a series of explosions resulting in severe leakage. wikipedia. Who benefits? "One, Russia loses quite a bit of the leverage it still had over Europe, which has been scrambling to find other gas supplies to tide over the winter. Two, the EU gets locked into the sanctions regime, since lifting embargoes will still keep it cut off from Russian gas transported directly and at a much lower cost. Both Russia and Europe are losers here." Deb. "Even if the Ukraine war ends tomorrow and Russia's connections to the global energy market are 'normalized', the energy dependence of Europe on Russian natural gas will never be the same again." Mint. "With oil it's a similar story. When Russia was shut out of oil markets after the invasion, it began offering oil at a discount and found many buyers - among them India." "According to a report in Reuters," in September, "India's imports from the Middle East fell to about 2.2 million bpd (barrels per day), down 16.2% from August" while "imports from Russia increased 4.6% to about 896,000 bpd after dipping in the previous two months." TOI. "Fueled by a surge in import of oil and fertilisers, India's bilateral trade with Russia has soared to an all-time high of $18,229.03 million in just five months (April-August) of this financial year (2022-23)," with fertiliser imports surging by 666.24% to $1,236.96 million. TIE. Despite that, "India's crude oil import bill surged 76% to $90.3 billion in the first half of 2022-23 (April-September) even as the total import quantity increased by 15% to 116.6 million tonnes." HT. While selling to Europe at exorbitant prices, the Biden administration "thought they had struck a secret deal (with Saudi Arabia) to boost oil production through the end of the year" "as the Democratic Party struggles to deal with inflation and high gas prices heading into the November elections." ET. Apparently, "The Biden administration asked Saudi Arabia, the de-facto leader of oil-producer group OPEC, to delay its decision on oil output by a month, the kingdom said in a statement." CNBC. Mid-term elections in the US are on 8 November. wikipedia. So, the Biden administration was just trying to deceive the world and American citizens to win the elections while making handsome profits from selling oil and gas. To win elections. Duplicitous and dishonorable. How pathetic. 

Burning dollars won't cool.

"The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) monetary policy committee (MPC) will meet on November 3 to decide on the contents of a letter to be sent to the government following its failure to keep inflation below the tolerance band of 6% for three consecutive quarters since January 2022." TOI. Mythili Bhusnurmath imagines what excuses the RBI might come up with: "It is always difficult to own up to failure," "But like the US Fed and other central banks, we believed high inflation would be a temporary phenomenon, driven by supply-side factors." "We had then hoped we would be able to tread the fine line between supporting growth and keeping prices under control in the coming months." ET. Why is the RBI so worried about growth when, in August 2022, "A government source...said that India is likely to be the fastest growing economy in the world this year." ET. Then, in September, "India has overtaken the UK to emerge as the fifth-largest economy in the world and is set to become third-largest by 2029, reports said." TOI. "In a separate report, State Bank of India (SBI) said in a note that India had surpassed UK as the fifth-largest economy as early as December 2021." Surely the RBI should have been aware of the blistering growth rate and taken steps to cool the economy from January. We hope that the RBI was not tolerating inflation deliberately to increase government revenue. Since, higher the prices, higher the taxes collected on goods and services (GST). "The gross GST revenue collected in the month of April, 2022 was Rs 1,67,540 crore (Rs 1.675 trillion), which was higher by 18% as compared to Rs 1,42,095 crore (Rs 1.42 trillion) recorded in March 2022." BS. The consumer price index (CPI) rose by a whopping 7.79% in April 2022 compared to 6.95% in March. Trading Economics. CPI inflation was 7.41% in September, so that the GST revenue "collected in September totaled Rs 1.47 lakh crore (Rs 1.47 trillion)". TOI. The US Fed is not so tolerant of high inflation. In September, "The US Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate...by 75 basis points for the third consecutive time to fight record inflation." AA. To a total of 3-3.25%. In March 2020 the Fed slashed its Funds rate by 100 basis points to 0 to 0.25%, till 17 March 2022 when it first raised its rate by 25 basis points. Forbes. The Indian rupee was around 75 to the dollar in February but started creeping up to over 76 to the dollar by April. exchangerates.org. The Fed hiked interest rate by 50 basis points on 5 May, and then by 75 basis points on 16 June, 27 July and 21 September and the rupee fell in tandem against the dollar, reaching a nadir of 83 to the dollar on 19 October. This despite the RBI selling $118 billion dollars to support the rupee. ET. "Analysts say it is unlikely that the government will hold the MPC accountable (for inflation) as the central bank and the government have been working together." TOI. In other words, the RBI was just obeying orders. The cost of importing crude oil jumped 76% to $90.3 billion in the first half of the current financial year, from April to September. HT. A weakening rupee will only add to transport costs, further increasing inflation. The economy is overheating. Don't burn dollars. It will not cool.      

No UAPA for Interpol.

"India ranked 107 out of 121 countries in the Global Hunger Index 2022 with its child wasting rate at 19.3% percent, being the highest in the world. ET. "With a score of 29.1, the level of hunger in India has been labeled serious." The "Ministry of Women and Child development 'rejected' the ranking, claiming there were serious methodological flaws in how the research was conducted." DH. "We continue to rank low on the human development index (132 out of 191 countries), and are the bottom of the ladder of the global gender gap report (135 out of 146 countries) in addition to our abysmal ranking on the GHI. A World Bank report concluded that 80% of those who fell below the $2.15/day poverty line were Indians." The government's Press Information Bureau hinted at a conspiracy, as "a consistent effort is yet again visible to taint India's image as a nation," wrote Alok Sheel. "The unfortunate fallout of such politically charged debate on global indices such as the Global Hunger Index, Global Freedom Scores, World Press Freedom Index, Democracy Index, V-Dem Index, etc, is that policymakers end up expending their intellectual energies on worsting the indices rather than using the data as valuable inputs for policy corrections, such as in the case of nutritional deficiencies. Ironically, the same policymakers highlight global indices that show us in good light." They can try to trash global indices but how do they suppress the deaths of innocent children? "The deaths of nearly 70 children in The Gambia, linked to cough syrups made in India, are being investigated amid concerns about effective regulation of the manufacture and trade in medicines." BBC. The WHO confirmed that the syrups contained "unacceptable levels of diethylene glycol and ethylene glycol as contaminants". Indians dare not complain. The Supreme Court may have stayed the infamous Section 124A, which labeled any protest as sedition, but there is no respite for Indians as "There has been a 72% increase in UAPA cases in the last five years." DH. The Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Amendment Act (UAPA) has "stringent requirement for the grant of bail, coupled with how criminal trials take years, even decades, to complete, mean that individuals spend long periods in jail without being found guilty of any crime. Indeed, a 2% conviction rate shows how, in an overwhelming number of UAPA cases, it is the process that is the punishment." HT. "Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman defended the actions of the Enforcement Directorate (ED) on private capital and civil societies and negated that it is being used as a political weapon." Mint. "ED is completely independent in what it does." she said. The oracle has spoken. So it must be alright. No surprise that "The International Criminal Police Organization,or Interpol, has rejected India's request to issue a Red Corner Notice on terror charges against Khalistan separatist Gurpatwant Singh Pannun." The Wire.  Meanwhile, "Asia's second-wealthiest man Reliance Industries Ltd Chairman Mukesh Ambani, is setting up a family office in Singapore, according to people familiar with the move." ET. In 2021, he bought Stoke Park for $79 million in Britain. HT. Never know when you might need a bolt-hole. Sadly, there is no shelter for us ordinary Indians.    

Venezuela awaits.

"US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell faces a crucial choice as the central bank battles the worst bout of inflation since the 1970s: What kind of chair will he be? A Paul Volcker, who took interest rates ever higher in an uncompromising effort to get prices under control? Or an Arthur Burns, who acted more timidly, in the ultimately futile hope that a less austere approach might be sufficient to do the job?" ET. Fed officials foresee "rates increasing 75 basis points in November, 50 in December and 25 in January to a peak of 4.50% to 4.75%." "There's no free lunch." "This Fed rate-increase cycle, which has already delivered a total of 3 percentage points in just over six months, is the most front-loaded one in a long time," wrote Mohamed A El-Erian. "After two years of quantitative easing (QE), under which central banks buy long-term bonds from the private sector and issue liquid reserves in return, central banks around the world have begun to shrink their balance sheets," wrote Profs Raghuram Rajan & Viral Acharya. This can cause accidents. "After all the financial system did what it was incentivized to do" as "The system's optimization of that regime involved large debt and leverage; over adherence to unrealistic return objectives; and, for many, venturing well beyond their natural investment habitat and expertise." El Erian. In short, free money encouraged reckless  borrowing and speculation in dubious financial instruments. "Don't expect inflation in the US to fall below 3% within two years, according to Deutsche Bank." BI. "Deutsche Bank relied on 50 developed and emerging market economies, with the data stretching as far back as 100 years in some cases." The European Central Bank (ECB) which is "The central bank for 19 countries that use the euro raised its deposit rate by a further 75 basis points to 1.5% - the highest rate since 2009." Reuters. "It also cut a key subsidy to banks - an attempt to force them to repay trillions of euros' worth of ECB loans." "Germany staved off the threat of recession in the third quarter with unexpected growth," but "Consumer prices harmonized to compare with other European countries, were up 11.6% on the year in October." Reuters. "Are we about to get QT?" Reuters. "Euro zone banks sit on 2.1 trillion euros of cash handed out by the ECB at ultra-low, sometimes even negative rates, aimed at boosting the economy. But quick and big rate hikes mean banks can park this cash back at the ECB, earning risk free profit, irking policymakers who view it as gaming the system." Narayan Ramachandran listed 5 phases of central bank action - from large QE to controlling inflation whatever it takes in phases 1 to 3. Phase 4 may be control inflation but prudently and may even resort to  phase 5 "where the received wisdom of maintaining 2% inflation for developed markets and 4% inflation for emerging markets begins to drift upwards". Permanently high inflation will be disastrous for the poor. As emerging markets have more poor people they will suffer more. More Hugo Chavez , more Venezuelas.            

How much longer?

"The value of the rupee has more than halved since early 2008. Would rupee depreciation help raise exports and provide a cushion for India's economic growth during the global slowdown that is upon us?" asked Profs Vidya Mahambare & C Veeramani. Exports depend on price and on income of buyers. Depreciation leads to higher cost of imported inputs and domestic inflation raises prices thus hurting exports. In 2021, "India's consumer price inflation was higher at 5.1% compared to the averages for middle-income countries (4.1%) and high income countries (2.5%)." And, although the rupee has fallen against the dollar, it has "consistently appreciated against other major currencies, including the pound, yen and euro, during the same period." That's because the Reserve Bank (RBI) has sold $114.08 billion dollars so that our reserves have fallen from $642.453 billion to $528.37 billion. ET. The relative strength of the rupee against other currencies helps imports while hurting exports. The trade deficit with China was $72.9 billion in 2021-22 and is already up to $87 billion this year. Outlook. "It is growing across the board, meaning we are importing a lot more than we are exporting," said Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman. Savage Chinese soldiers killed 20 Indian soldiers in an unprovoked attack in Galwan Valley in Ladakh in June 2020. BS. And yet India gave in to Chinese demands as locals said that "the disengagement that had been doing the rounds as 'de-escalation' was essentially India 'surrendering control' of it own territory by approving China's demand for 'buffer zones'." The Wire. Though we still have enough foreign exchange reserves to cover 8.6 months of imports "both the trade and current account deficits have widened sharply, pointing to a balance-of-payments deficit which could linger for the foreseeable future," wrote Pranjul Bhandari. "India's current account deficit (CAD) widened to 2.8% of gross domestic product (GDP) in the three months through June," to a total of $23.9 billion. Mint. CAD is expected to widen to 5% of GDP in the September quarter before ending at 3.5% of GDP for the 2022-23 financial year. BS. "We believe that India's saving rate has fallen, and that lies at the heart of the current account deficit widening to unsustainable levels." Higher interest rates will encourage household savings while discouraging borrowing and a weaker rupee will reduce imports by making them more expensive. India is to see the greatest rise in salaries in real terms, which means in addition to the rate of inflation, MBN, with real increases in India at 4.6%, followed by Vietnam at 4.0% and China at 3.8%. ET. A stubbornly high inflation is an "invisible" tax on the vulnerable and RBI's monetary policy is ineffective, wrote Prof Deepanshu Mohan. As long as we can fool the people about the myth of being the fastest growing economy. But for how long?

Value of collecting firewood.

Labor force participation rate (LFPR) "is the percentage of our working age population engaged in work or making tangible efforts to seek 'work' or being available for 'work' if it is available," wrote V Anantha Nageswaran, Chief Economic Advisor to the Government of India, and Harish Kumar Kallega & Deeksha Supyaal Bisht, Indian Economic Service Officers. "The LFPR declined between 1999 and 2011-12 from 40% to 30% and has risen from 2017-18 to 2020-21." So it should be above 30%. However, female LFPR in India was 20.3% in 2021. World Bank. The female LFPR "in India has been falling steeply in the last two decades - from about 30.5% in 2000 to 21.1% in 2019 (pre-pandemic) and 18.6% in 2020 (post-pandemic) as per ILO estimates." FE. In July, "Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) deputy governor Dr Michael Debabrata Patra stated that the female workforce participation in India is among the lowest in the world and continues to fall. India stands lower than even Pakistan." India Times. A dubious honor, indeed. "According to the Union Budget 2022" the female LFPR "in India was at 19% in 2020 from over 26% in 2005, even lower than in Bangladesh (35%) and Sri Lanka (31%)." So many figures, all different. No doubt the authors have a handful of PhDs among them and have access to government resources. They should carry out a thorough survey and publish honest figures which can then be used to guide economic policies. What is work? " 'Work includes self-employment (subsistence agriculture and collection of firewood, poultry farming, etc, for self consumption), regular wage-salaried employment, and casual labor." As well as "women's unpaid domestic labor, which can be seen as expenditure-saving work such as collecting firewood, cooking, tutoring children, etc, and contributes significantly to the household's standard of living." "The central government has disbursed 8.05 million deposit free cooking gas connections this financial year (2020-21) until December 1. These connections have been distributed under the second leg of the Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana (PMUY)." BS. If collecting firewood is defined as profitable work then millions of women have been rendered unemployed by the PMUY scheme. Moreover, firewood is free but refilling a gas cylinder costs in excess of Rs 1000, goodreturns.in, so the "household's standard of living" has taken a significant hit. "About 200,000 Indians die every year due to inadequate access to safe water,...the government think tank Niti Aayog said." Reuters. "On an average, a rural woman walks 5 kilometers to 20 kilometers a day just to fetch water, according to estimates by campaigners." Thus adding to household wealth by saving on medical bills. The government's Jal Jeevan Mission is to provide piped water to every household, BS, rendering millions of women unemployed and reducing their standard of living. Government officers must serve the people. Not as megaphones for government propaganda. So sad.           

Scuttled ship of state.

"Rishi Sunak has been officially announced as United Kingdom's Prime Minister after he met King Charles III at Buckingham Palace. Sunak will be the country's youngest Prime Minister in two centuries and the third one this year after Boris Johnson and Liz Truss." ET. Indians are rejoicing because "His parents came to the UK from east Africa and are both of Indian origin. Mr Sunak was born in Southampton in 1980," "He went to the boarding school Winchester College, then studied Philosophy, Politics and Economics at Oxford, and business at Stanford in America." BBC. As thoroughly British as anyone can be. "'Free ports' are one of his long-time favorite ideas: areas near ports and airports where goods can be imported and exported without paying taxes, to encourage trade." Sunak has to make sure that his appointment does not turn out to be a classical poisoned chalice, as that of his predecessor Liz Truss, who now holds the record of being the UK's shortest-serving prime minister. npr. "The United Kingdom was already sliding towards a recession when Truss took office in September, as soaring energy bills ate into spending." CNN. And yet the UK will "still need to find between 30 and 40 billion pounds in savings to bring down public debt as a share of the economy in the next five years, according to calculations by IFS, an influential think tank." "Productivity growth has dropped to half the rate it was in the early 2000s, real wages are falling, the pound is nearing record lows and an aging population is placing a growing strain on public services, even as the government tries to rein in public spending that soared during the Covid-19 pandemic," wrote Max Colchester. And then, there is the thorn of Brexit. Former Prime Minister Boris Johnson "said the Tories were elected to 'get Brexit done'. He said he duly delivered. But then he called the deal he struck unsustainable because of its most conspicuous feature: an economic border separating Northern Ireland from the UK," wrote Clive Crook. But Brexit cannot be reversed. "The idea that Britain might turn supplicant for renewed membership - presumably on terms that would be less favorable than those it secured through years of grudging and obstreperous participation - is unthinkable." "First, London would be negotiating from a position of weakness; second, the EU would be pleased to see Brexit fail, and conspicuously, to discourage other rebellions." "The Conservative Party made itself the party of Brexit, but they were never honest about the inevitable trade-offs of leaving the European Union." Vox. "You are going to create trade barriers with your biggest trading partner, even though you are going to be able to sign new trade deals with other countries." To add oil to the fire, the Catholic Sinn Fein party won the largest number of seats in the election to the Northern Ireland Assembly in May. BBC. "The ultimate goal of Sinn Fein is for Northern Ireland to leave the UK and become one country with the Republic of Ireland." Also, First Minister of Scotland Nicola Sturgeon wants another referendum for independence from Britain. BBC. The British ship of state has been scuttled economically. Can Sunak bail it out? 

The cost of selling.

"Sounding a note of caution, the Finance Ministry's Economic Review said...that inflation may witness another resurgence in case of deterioration of geopolitical situation leading to higher global energy prices and supply chain pressures." "Retail inflation for India during these six months stood at 7.2 percent, lower than the world inflation of 8 percent, as represented by the median inflation of major economies, it said. During the same period, it said, the INR had depreciated by 5.4 percent against the USD, less than the depreciation of 8.9 percent of six major currencies in the DXY index." That may be because no other central bank has burned $114.08 billion to strengthen their currency as the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has done. ET. "Market analyst Sunil Shah...said even though the rupee as a currency has weakened in comparison to the US dollar, but it is still far stronger than other currencies." ET. As a result, "Indian exporters are holding back on dollar sales on hopes of a further slide in the rupee, eyeing a windfall as the local currency plumbs record lows this year." ET. "The swift depreciation of the rupee against the dollar in the recent sessions saw it breach the psychologically-crucial 83-mark." ET. "Year-to-date, the USD/INR is down by nearly 6%, and experts see further depreciation in the Indian unit, triggered by imported inflation." So, as the rupee falls imports become more expensive and higher inflation causes further weakness of the rupee. The World Economic Outlook (WEO) report of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in April 2021 projected India's nominal GDP for 2026-27 at Rs 389.01 trillion and $4.534 trillion. However, in its October WEO the IMF revised its forecast to Rs 392.84 trillion and $4.393 trillion, wrote Prof V Anantha Nageswaran, now the Chief Economic Advisor (CEA) to the Government of India since 28 January. pib.gov.in. "So, secondary-school arithmetic will tell us that the Fund has become relatively more pessimistic on the Indian rupee versus US dollar (USD). From 70.9 in 2020-21, the Fund sees the rupee depreciating to 89.4 against the US dollar by 2026-27," wrote an outraged Nageswaran. Looks like the IMF was a better judge of our economy than our CEA. "One school of thought that prevails is that inflation is largely driven by food and fuel prices, and hence, there isn't much the RBI can do to control inflation by raising the repo rate," wrote Vivek Kaul. However, "The core inflation in September was 6.5%." "A possible explanation could lie in the high inflation that has seeped into wage inflation as people have demanded higher wages to compensate for higher prices." While the RBI is reluctant to raise rates, the liquidity in banks "is approaching pre-Covid-19 level of Rs 3 lakh crore (Rs 3 trillion) and adjusting for the cash balances of the government (which lies with RBI), the surplus liquidity with banks has come down to just above Rs 1 lakh crore (Rs 1 trillion)," wrote Samiran Chakraborty. The negative real interest rate means that growth of deposits in banks is 9% while credit growth is 16%. Banks will be forced to increase lending rates. The RBI has sold $114 billion which has sucked out Rs 9.427 trillion from the system at an exchange rate of Rs 82.7 to the dollar. xe.com. So, we have lost dollars, lending rates will rise, the rupee will fall and inflation will rise higher. Well done RBI.    

Global breakup.

"The war in Ukraine, gyrating gas prices, skyrocketing mortgage rates, the continued fallout of the covid--19 pandemic and the looming prospect of a recession - all these factors seem to be coalescing into chaos." DH. "The fear is real." The reason is that, "For roughly half a century, our political economy has been based on the governing concept of neoliberalism - the idea that capital, goods and people should be able to cross borders in search of the most productive and profitable returns." This created inequality as money moves easily but people cannot. "The world is beginning to reset." "French President Emmanuel Macron...said US trade and energy policies created a 'double standard' and Europe was left paying higher prices for its natural gas," as "The OilPrice.com report revealed that US natural gas exports to France increased 421% during the first eight months of 2022 but energy prices are soaring and increased by 1094% in August alone." News18. A direct result of sanctions on Russia, BBC, whose cheap oil and gas was making Europe richer. Europe was importing 40% of its natural gas "from Russia because it is both cheap and convenient," and "Germany alone accounted for around 20% of Russia's total gas exports in 2020 - but Germany also distributes Russian gas to other European countries." Time. Europe thought the US would gallop to its aid, and got shafted. Et tu, Brute? wikipedia. Not just that. "The decline in the global oil benchmark from nearly $128 a barrel has dovetailed with a jump in the dollar of about 15% over the same period." ET. "With next to no local crude supplies, each of the currency (euro) bloc's five biggest economies - Germany, France, Italy, Spain and the Netherlands - is at least 90% dependent on foreign purchases to run refineries." "The squeeze on energy supplies from Russia's moves to cut gas deliveries has driven huge increases in consumer prices, running at a record 9.9% in September." The US is raking it in. "Data released Wednesday (19 October) showed that overall consumer prices rose at a rapid pace in September from a year earlier, climbing nearly 11% in the European Union and 10.1% in Britain." ET. Bread prices are up 19% in the EU. "Across Europe, soaring inflation is behind a wave of protests and strikes that underscores growing discontent with the spiraling cost of living and threatens to unleash a political turmoil. ABC. "Despite natural gas prices falling from record summer highs and governments allocating a whopping 576 billion euros (over $566 billion) in energy relief to households and businesses since September 2021, according to the Bruegel think tank in Brussels, it's not enough for some protesters." "With another US Federal Reserve meeting scheduled for early November, experts are predicting another aggressive rate hike." CNET. That will make dollar even stronger, and inflation worse. Today is Diwali, the festival of lights. Hope and pray that it enlightens everyone. Remove missile threats. Make peace. Enrich the world. Happy Diwali.  

Asking questions.

"British Prime Minister Liz Truss resigned Thursday (20 October) after just six weeks in office, following a disastrous and rapidly reversed economic plan that sent the pound plunging and her government into chaos." NBC. Before Truss, Boris Johnson was forced to resign even though, "Less than three years ago, Boris Johnson led the Conservatives to their biggest election victory since 1987." BBC. Because, Johnson tried to protect the Conservative deputy chief whip Chris Pincher who "was accused of groping two men, which led to a flurry of allegations, some dating back years." "In April of this year, the prime minister was fined for breaking lockdown rules, after attending a gathering on his birthday in June 2020." Also, "Boris Johnson will be investigated by a Commons committee over claims he misled Parliament over parties in Downing Street during lockdown. MPs approved the Privileges Committee launching an inquiry once the police have finished their own investigation into the gatherings." Unbelievable in India. Even more unbelievable, "Former President Donald Trump was issued a subpoena Friday by the House select committee investigating the Jan 6 riot at the US Capitol." CNBC. Not just that, "Former President Donald Trump invoked his Fifth Amendment right more than 440 times...in refusing to answer questions at a deposition by lawyers for New York Attorney General Letitia James, who is investigating Trump Organization's business practices, a source with knowledge of the session told NBC news." In June last year, "Across India, amid a devastating second wave of Covid-19, hospitals ran out of beds and critical supplies, contributing to the deaths of untold thousands of people and worsening an already tragic outbreak. By one count oxygen shortages alone have killed at least 600 people over the past two months." New York Times. Many Indians "were sickened by him (Prime Minister Modi) addressing tens of thousands of people at state election rallies and letting Hindu devotees congregate for a festival." Reuters. In May 2021, "India's holiest river, the Ganges, has been swollen with bodies in recent days. Hundreds of corpses were found floating in the river or buried in the sand of its banks." BBC. We are not talking parties here, we are talking of millions of hapless citizens gasping to death. Hence, "Around 300 top officials of the central government participated in a workshop titled Effective Communications", to learn how to create a "positive image of the government", manage "perception through effectively highlighting positive stories and achievements", and making the government "be seen to be sensitive, bold, quick, responsive, hard-working etc." HT. "The Indian High Commission in Australia has sent out a bristling rejoinder to The Australian newspaper for an article criticising the Indian leadership's handling of the pandemic." Telegraph India. Indian newspapers wouldn't dare. During the Spanish flu, "In September 1918, the Ganga started to bob with corpses as the Bombay Fever returned with manic vengeance." TOI. The British and Americans can ask questions. We are still a conquered people.   

IMF's sound advice.

"US Treasury yields held near multiyear highs on Friday (yesterday) with markets seeing no let-up in tightening from the Federal Reserve, causing shares to slip and the dollar to stay strong, particularly against the embattled Japanese yen." Reuters. "The benchmark US 10-year yield edged up as high as 4.276%, its highest level since June 2008, having risen nearly 10 basis points overnight." "Global markets have been extremely volatile as investors worry that hefty rate hikes will push major economies into recessions before inflation is tamed, while the resulting strong dollar could wreak havoc in emerging markets." The International Monetary Fund (IMF) data shows "the US dollar, by virtue of being widely used in trade and financial transactions, remains first choice of reserve currency," but its share in global foreign exchange reserves has dropped "from about 72% in 2000 to about 60% in 2022", wrote Uma Gupta. Even so, "Nearly half of world trade is still happening using the dollar," and "Nearly 90% of India's foreign trade is invoiced in dollars." "India's inflation worries will compound as a stronger dollar makes India's imports more costlier." ET on 14 June. At the time one dollar was worth Rs 78.28. Today, one dollar buys Rs 82.54. xe.com. "While, as per bankers, even if India's trading partner's currency has dropped in tandem with the rupee, imports will still be more expensive because billing is still done in dollars, and most importers lack bargaining strength." "The foreign exchange reserves of Asia's third largest economy fell by $4.50 to $528.37 billion for the week ending Oct 14, according to data released by the Reserve Bank of India. The spot forex reserves have fallen from $607 billion in end-March and depleted by $114.08 billion from $642.453 billion seen on September 3 last year." ET. "On average, the estimated pass-through of a 10 percent dollar appreciation into inflation is 1 percent. Such pressures are especially acute in emerging markets." IMF. "Given the significant role of fundamental drivers, the appropriate response is to allow the exchange rate to adjust, while using monetary policy to keep inflation close to its target." Which means higher interest rates. "Specifically, foreign exchange intervention should not substitute for warranted adjustment to macroeconomic policies." Means, don't sell dollars. The foreign exchange reserves are now enough to cover 8 months of imports, wrote Niranjan Rajadhyaksha. "A six-months import cover is the bare minimum required. So, in effect the RBI now has a maximum of $120 billion to support the rupee. Second, India will also have a balance-of-payments deficit of around $120 billion this financial year." "However, a central bank with a formal inflation-targeting mandate should ideally use its interest rates only to manage domestic demand and not exchange rate." That is exactly what the IMF is advising. Do one and the other will follow. Same as black or white cats.