Waiting for the mirage of sunlit uplands.

"Nobody wants to be told over and over again what's wrong with their country and its people, especially when much of it is untrue," wrote Prof V Anantha Nageswaran. "They want to be inspired and led to the sunlit uplands." Prime Minister Narendra Modi has promised "shonar bangla", which means 'golden Bengal', while campaigning for assembly elections in west Bengal. Four people were shot dead by central forces in Cooch Behar for alleged violence. State BJP leader Rahul Sinha said four was not enough, eight people should have been shot. The good news is, "Among 210 countries, India ranks 120 in deaths per million and 125 in cases per million," said Nageswaran. "Around 31% of almost 4.5 lakh (450,000) people who took antibody tests for Covid-19 across India from July-December last year tested positive, according to a new study analysing data from a chain of private labs," reported Times of India. "Seropositivity, as this is known rose from 18% in July to 46.5% in December and was slightly higher in females -- 35% compared to 30% -- than in males, reports Vaishnavi Chandrashekhar." Surveys of households suggest all-cause mortality doubled between May and August last year, wrote Rukmini S. While other countries publish up-to-date mortality data, "In India, however, the end of 2020 did not mean that data for this crucial year would now be available -- the most recent national all-cause mortality data is for 2018." "The most striking feature of India's second wave of infections has been the speed at which the numbers have been growing," wrote Amitabh Sinha. "Amid surging pandemic cases forcing many states to curb mobility and businesses, a report has said these localised lockdowns in key economic hubs can cost the economy an average of USD 1.25 billion each week and may shave off 140 bps from the Q1 nominal GDP." The Reserve Bank (RBI) has taken preemptive action. Although it expects retail inflation to stay around 5%, it has kept the repo rate unchanged at 4%. It has also announced a bond buying plan of up to Rs 1 lakh crore (Rs 1 trillion) to keep bond yields, at which the government borrows from the market, at below 6.25%, wrote Ajit Ranade. "RBI is now merely following a precedent set by the US Federal Reserve, followed by the European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of Japan." Comparing with these economies is downright silly because the US is expecting its inflation rate to rise to 2.4% year-on-year (y-o-y), reported Reuters. "Euro area annual inflation is expected to be 1.3% in March 2021, up from 0.9% in February 2021," according to Eurostat, while in Japan consumer prices have been declining since October 2020. In India, on the other hand, retail inflation came in at 5.52% in March, reported Business Standard. Indian economists believe that every problem of India's economy can be solved by keeping interest rates as low as possible, never mind that real negative interest rates impoverish savers who rely on interest from fixed deposits in banks. Inflation targeting (IT) policy was associated with the highest real repo rates in India from 2017-2019 and were "the primary cause of the GDP growth decline in India from 8 percent (pre-IT) to 5 percent (post-IT), according to economist SS Bhalla. Low interest rates are supposed to encourage higher borrowing for new investments, wrote Ranade. "Currently, credit growth is barely 6% overall", while we need credit to grow at 20% to produce high GDP growth. "India's own experience since 1990s is that high interest rates have not deterred animal spirits and robust investment growth." Sunlit uplands are a mirage.

All it needed was humility and dedication.

Stock markets boomed in 2020 but could fall in 2021, wrote Ruchir Sharma. "The consensus forecasts put 2021 GDP growth at just over 5% worldwide, and near 6% in the United States. I think growth could top 6% worldwide and approach 8% in theUnited States, an astonishing pace for a developed country." "Savers will become spenders again. Resurgent demand for leisure travel and other services will strain the capacity of industries gutted by the pandemic." "The bond market is beginning to price in higher inflation..." "Rising inflation expectations helped ignite a first-quarter sell-off in Treasuries that pushed yields to pre-pandemic heights," reported Reuters. "US Treasury auctions offering $271 billion of new debt and a key inflation report this week could end a recent lull in the bond market, reigniting a rise in yields that worried investors in the first quarter," Reuters. India is already grappling with high inflation despite poor growth, with the consumer price index rising by 5.52% in March compared to 5.03% in February, reported Business Standard. Core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, grew by 5.72% in March compared to 5.59% in February. Last week, "The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) announced a Rs 1 lakh crore (Rs 1 trillion) bond-buying plan to keep a lid on long-term interest rates amid a massive government borrowing programme, even as it held policy rates steady and retained an accommodative stance to underpin the fragile economic recovery," reported Hindustan Times. New infections with the coronavirus have jumped in recent days, with 1,61,736 new cases yesterday, slightly less than the day before. "The Nomura India Business Resumption Index (NIBRI) suffered its sharpest week-on-week fall in the week ending April 4, dropping to 90.7 from last week's value of 94.6," wrote Roshan Kishore. Growth has been weakening from before the latest explosion in the number of cases. Most experts revised their forecasts upwards for the Indian economy in 2021-22. The IMF increased its forecast from 11.5% to 12.5%. "However, most high frequency indicators have been showing that the sequential economic recovery has been losing momentum." "According to Crisil, by the end of 2020-21, GDP will only be approximately 2% higher than March 2020 level. More importantly, the absolute GDP would be 10% below its pre-pandemic trend level," wrote Udit Misra. The second wave will increase inequality as migrant workers flee back to their villages, terrified by their experience last year. "This threatens to reverse the gains from around Diwali last year when workers who had left in the first exodus had started to return to the states where they had worked." "Just a few short weeks ago, government officials were patting themselves on the back," wrote Mihir Sharma. They were boasting how India would become the pharmacy of the world and the RBI predicted that "soon the winter of our discontent will be made glorious summer". "Such boasts sound foolish at best today." Because of the arrogance, nationalism and bullying by the government. "This kind of regulatory uncertainty, bullying, lack of foresight and urgency, and contempt for legitimate profit- making is familiar to every entrepreneur in India. Such attitudes are at the root of the country's growth of the country's growth and investment crisis. Now the rest of the world will have to suffer the consequences." No wonder, Chief of Serum Institute of India Adar Poonawalla has rented a property in central London for around 50,000 pounds (Rs 5 million) per week, reported Business Today. They will want to blame someone for their failure. In addition to citizens.    

Can you have a Hindu Rashtra without Hindus?

"Breaking all records, India has recorded a massive surge of 169,899 Covid-19 cases in the last 24 hours," reported Business Standard. "With this India has once again taken its spot as the second-worst hit nation with 13,525,364 cases in total." "The death toll from the deadly infection stands at 170,209." The Central government has sent teams to Maharashtra, Punjab and Chhattisgarh as these are recording the highest numbers of cases, with shortages of oxygen, healthcare workers and testing kits. The Maharashtra government is considering a total lockdown with shortage of oxygen, lack of manpower and malfunctioning ventilators. While ruling out a total lockdown, "The Delhi government has prohibited all types of gatherings, reduced the size of weddings and funerals, and halved the capacity of public transport as part of restrictions to control the spread of Covid-19." Hundreds of doctors have died, but as usual the government has 'downplayed' the numbers. Worse than the dangers of death and incapacity, doctors are regularly facing abuse, humiliation and physical assaults. "Aided by new variants, Covid-19 is spreading rapidly," wrote Yamini Aiyar. "Yet, consensus has been forged among all arms of the State to resort to familiar toolkits -- coercive policies through confounding orders (from last minute lockdowns to making masks compulsory while alone in a vehicle); opacity (critical data -- vaccines and reinfection, vaccines and side effects, disease severity, lockdown and transmission dynamics -- are missing from the public domain) and blaming citizens for abandoning Covid-19 caution even as the political leadership has willingly thrown caution to the winds in pursuit of political power." The government and its officials are being economical with facts, wrote Karan Thapar. "Shahid Jameel, one of our top virologists, says one of the mutations, L452R, is similar to what was earlier found among minks in Denmark and, thereafter, in the human population in California. It is more infectious. The other, E484Q, has similarities to mutations found in South Africa and Brazil and is more resistant to the AstraZeneca vaccine (Covishield in India)." The double mutant strain is ravaging Maharashtra while a third strain, the UK mutant, is responsible for 81% of samples in Punjab. Head of Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) Dr Bhargava "insists the mutant strains aren't driving the second surge". Meanwhile, "A political between the Union and some states over an alleged shortage of vaccines is threatening to cast a shadow over India's battle against Covid-19," reported the Mint. "With India in the throes of a second wave, one that threatens to suffocate lives and livelihoods again, it is hard not to recoil in revulsion from the war of words that has broken out in the arena of politics over our vaccination programme," wrote an editorial in the Mint. Why? Because, Assam, West Bengal, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Puducherry are in the midst of elections to their assemblies and Prime Minister Narendra Modi wants to win West Bengal at any cost. "Such is the obsessive desire of the Bharatiya Janata Party (Modi's party) to win Bengal that the central government is playing second fiddle to the party's ambition; it's almost as if governance and crucial policy decisions can wait till Kolkata is conquered," wrote Rajdeep Sardesai. Asked why he is not wearing a mask, one politician said, "Please, understand, people have gathered here to see me not you. How can they see me properly if I wear a mask." At the same time, millions of Hindus have gathered in Haridwar to celebrate the Kumbh Mela. The BJP may want a Hindu Rahstra, but it is trying its best to wipe out Hindus using the Chinese virus. With friends like these what chance do we Hindus have? The end could well be nigh.

Reflation for the US transforms to inflation for India.

"An economic rebound as brawny as the one projected this year ought to be a cause for celebration. It's a relief that gross domestic product (GDP) will enjoy its biggest spurt in years -- perhaps even decades -- following the biggest drop since the 1930s," Daniel Moss wrote about the US economy. Problem is, "that the US is exporting reflation. Bond yields around the world have climbed the past few months on expectations that prices will pick up. Of course they will." "What's probably happening now is that, rather than an inflation problem, we are seeing some of the deflationary forces disappearing." "US consumer prices for March are due out Tuesday and markets are ready to scour the data for signs that massive stimulus spending is spurring inflation." reported Reuters. "Analysts see consumer prices rising by a median 2.4% for March year-on-year, up from 1.7% in February." What's worse is that GDP growth is expected "to rise as much as 20% year-on-year, setting China up for a nearly double-digit 2021 expansion thanks to a resurgence in global manufacturing and a sharp recovery in domestic spending". On the other hand, "India, which is projected to grow at an impressive rate of 12.5 percent this year, needs to grow at a much faster pace to make up for the unprecedented contraction of eight percent that it clocked during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, according to a senior IMF official." But, how? What is reflation for the US is inflation for India as "The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Wednesday revised upwards the CPI-based retail inflation to 5.2% in the first half of the current fiscal year." Low inflation forecast allows the RBI to indulge in financial repression. "Government securities (G-secs) worth nearly Rs 11,000 crore (Rs 110 billion) remained unsold in the first gilt auction of fiscal 2022. This indicates a revival of a tug of war between traders, who want higher yields, and the central bank which wants the opposite." The RBI wants traders to suffer losses to appease the government. Meanwhile, the number of new coronavirus infections rose to 152,879 yesterday as states began to impose ever increasing restrictions on hapless citizens. Terrified by their inhuman experience last year, "The second wave of Covid infections is sparking another reverse migration of workers returning to their home states from places reporting sharp increases in cases," reported Times of India (TOI). Will prices jump because of falling output, or fall because of rising poverty remains to be seen. "One of the key reasons cited for the slowdown in factory output is the increase in input costs -- the rate of input cost inflation was among the highest seen in the past three years," reported India Today. If manufacturing in China grows as forecast input costs can only rise higher. The Indian government has been adding massively to input costs as, "The collections on petrol and diesel rose to Rs 2.94 lakh crore (Rs 2.94 trillion) in the first 10 months of the current fiscal (2020-21) according to information furnished by minister of state Anurag Singh Thakur," reported TOI. This despite a massive 9.1% contraction in demand for fuel in the financial year ended 31 March, because of over 300% increase in taxes on fuel. Of course, five times higher inflation in India compared to the US means a loss of buying power of the rupee compared to the dollar. "The fall of the rupee has caused unease in the market," wrote Aparna Iyer. This will make imports more expensive and further add to inflation. Reflation in the US will transform to inflation in India. All because of the RBI.

Wise to have an escape plan ready.

"Breaking all records, India has recorded a massive surge of 145,384 Covid-19 cases in the last 24 hours," reported Business Standard. "Active cases are nearing the 1-million mark." 794 people died, taking the total number of deaths since last year to 168,467. "Amid the rising COVID-19 infections across the country, Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Thursday (April 8) said that there will be no hard lockdown," reported Zee News. "The PM maintained that the Centre needs to prioritise vaccines depending on affected areas and suggested the states to reduce wastage of doses for better management," reported Hindustan Times. Cases are naturally high in cities where large numbers of people live in crowded areas. Had vaccination been concentrated in major cities first, then in smaller cities and then to villages the number of cases would have fallen drastically. On 24 March 2020, Modi announced a total lockdown of the entire nation giving just 24 hours notice. On 25 March, the first day of the lockdown, there were only 600 cases, but now that there are over 100,000 cases in 24 hours he is ruling out any lockdown. Why? The sudden cessation of all economic activity resulted in migrant workers losing their livelihoods and millions of workers and their families, including little children, somehow made their way back to their villages. Many died of starvation and in accidents. This uncontrolled exodus of millions of people without any masks, social distancing or sanitisers, in a desperate effort not to die of starvation, spread the virus to villages. "The main benefit of the migration efforts comes from the lives saved. According to one estimate in an influential paper by Neil Ferguson and co-authors of Imperial College London, enhanced social distancing of the type adopted in India could potentially save 2 million lives compared to the case without any migration efforts," reported The Indian Express. That is the point. So desperate were these poor people that they rushed to train and bus stations at any rumor of resumption of service, got beaten up by the police and still came back. Apparently, the lockdown gave time to the government to increase the number of beds dedicated to the care of covid patients, which is a false assurance because doctors need about 10 years or more to be trained and a nurse needs a minimum of 4-5 years. Governments ordered hospitals to reserve ICU beds for covid patients which means there would have been no beds for serious non-covid conditions, such as heart attacks, strokes, head injuries, diabetic coma and other common medical emergencies. Mortality figures have not been released. Prof Renuka Sane and Ajay Shah used data from Centre for Monitoring of Indian Economy (CMIE)'s Consumer Pyramids Household Survey of 200,000 households 3 times a year and found that all-cause mortality doubled between May and August 2020 compared to previous years, wrote Rukmini S. Meanwhile, "Data collated from the Union health ministry shows that states have on average just over five days of vaccine stocks remaining at their current levels of vaccination, and an additional week's supply in the pipeline," reported Times of India yesterday.  "The Serum Institute of India (SII), the world's biggest vaccine manufacturer has asked the government for a grant of 30 billion rupees ($402.97 million) to increase its capacity to make AstraZeneca's COVID-19 vaccine," reported Reuters. Probably because, AstraZeneca have sent a legal notice to SII for failure to supply 10 million doses to the UK as per contract because the Indian government stopped the supply. Just to be on the safe side, head of SII Adar Poonawalla has rented a property in central London at 50,000 pounds per week, which amounts to Rs 5 million per week. Ready to escape. We can't.  

If profits are falling how will they repay loans?

WFH or Work From Home has become part of everyday language since the coronavirus pandemic broke last year. "WFH means an employee is working from their house, apartment, or place of residence rather than working from the office." It seems to make sense. The company saves huge sums of money in renting office space and other bills, like electricity and maintenance, while employees save money and time from not having to commute everyday and can choose their working hours. "The interesting thing is that the work-from-home model might continue even after the pandemic ends," wrote Vivek Kaul. Which will result in loss of service jobs in maintenance, cleaning, cafeterias, cab services and drivers. If people stop commuting, sales of cars will fall and a fall in demand for office space will lead to a drop in construction. India has over 50 million (5 crore) workers in the construction industry, of them about 35 million are registered. Analysing the effect of the pandemic on economies, "If the impact on the poor in rich countries has been severe, in lower and lower middle income countries, it has been nothing short of devastating," wrote Prof Vivek Dahejia. Pew Research Center has compared the economic effects of the pandemic on China and India against what would have been expected had normal economic growth continued uninterrupted. Taking an income of less than $2 per day as a mark of poverty, the study showed that 1 million people in  China fell into absolute poverty while "30 million more people were pushed into low-income (but not absolutely poor) category". In India "a staggering 75 million people were pushed back into poverty by the covid crisis -- this is almost 60% of the global total increase in poverty caused by the pandemic". In response, the Reserve Bank (RBI) has kept interest rate at 4% and maintained an "accommodative stance", while predicting a retail inflation of over 5%. This is expected to encourage private companies to invest in new capacity financed by cheap borrowing. To help the government, "The RBI announced a Rs 1 lakh crore (Rs 1 trillion) bond-buying plan to keep a lid on long-term interest rates amid a massive government borrowing programme, even as it held policy rates steady and retained an accommodative stance to underpin the fragile economic recovery," wrote Gopika Gopakumar. "The trouble is that, "In the last few years, the lending by banks to corporates has been more or less flat, which basically means that net-net barely any new industrial lending has happened," wrote Vivek Kaul. "This stems from the fact that the profits made by corporates as a proportion of their total income has been falling over the years, giving them lesser incentive to borrow and expand." "If we look at listed corporates, data from the Centre of Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) points out that the profit after tax as a percentage of total income peaked at 10.21% in 2007-08. It fell to 5.44% in 2015-16 and further fell to 2.88% in 2019-20." One reason is that GDP growth rate has fallen from over 8% in 2016-17 to around 4% in 2019-20, and growth of Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE), which had a share of 57% in India's GDP, "collapsed to 2.7% in the March 2020 quarter, the lowest since June 2012", wrote Roshan Kishore. "Consumers turned more pessimistic about the present and less gung-ho about the future, making them less likely to spend in an economy that's driven by domestic consumption," reported Times of India. "The best-laid plans o' mice and men gang aft agley." Especially if men are mice.         

Is the Reserve Bank supposed to transfer wealth from the poor to the rich?

"Reserve Bank (RBI) on Wednesday said it expects retail inflation at 5.2 percent in the first half of the current fiscal and revised downwards the target to 5 percent for the quarter ended March," reported Economic Times. The RBI "has kept the key repo rate unchanged at 4 percent to support growth in the current situation". The RBI is deliberately targeting a negative real interest rate which hurts savers and helps borrowers. Which means transferring wealth from ordinary citizens to the government, which is the biggest borrower, and to the rich, who can increase assets by borrowing. "Since March as the government announced lockdown, India's top hundred billionaires saw their fortunes increase by Rs 12.97 trillion," reported Business Standard. Crony capitalism at its most productive. The RBI "retained the GDP growth rate of 10.5 percent for the fiscal year 2022 and said global growth is gradually recovering from slowdown but remains uncertain," reported Moneycontrol. "The RBI said the projection of real GDP growth for 2021-22 consists of consists of 26.2 percent in Q1 (April-June), 8.3 percent in Q2, 5.4 percent in Q3 and 6.2 percent in Q4." Real GDP growth is measured by discounting inflation from nominal GDP. Does this mean that the RBI is forecasting nominal GDP growth of 26.2+5 for retail inflation = 31.2% for Q1, 13.3% for Q2, 10.4% for Q3 and 11.2% for Q4? "In good for the Indian economy which was massively hit by the Covid-19 pandemic last year, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has predicted that India's GDP growth rate would be at 12.5% in 2021," reported India.com. Is the IMF predicting real or nominal GDP and for financial or calendar year? "Despite the stronger projection, the IMF has predicted that India's GDP will contract by 8%." Wonderful. "In developed economies, central banks seem willing to tolerate higher inflation, but this playbook should not be applied to India," wrote Sonal Verma. "In the former, inflation has undershot the target and inflation expectations are well anchored, whereas in India, inflation has overshot the midpoint target of 4% despite weak growth and inflation expectations are elevated." "Ultimately, we believe monetary policy needs to be forward looking and neither premature nor late in withdrawing accommodation." In India, food and beverages provide over 45% to the consumer price index (CPI) basket, which makes CPI dependent on volatile vegetable prices which are weather dependent. Economist and ardent supporter of Prime Minister Narendra Modi SS Bhalla wrote that inflation targeting had no effect on inflation, which came down on its own, but it did cut growth rate of the Indian economy. A view supported by Prof VA Nageswaran wrote that "given the lopsided weight for food and related components in the Indian Consumer Price Index (CPI), the index was prone to overstating inflation when food prices were elevated, resulting in a more restrictive monetary policy". According to the Household Consumer Expenditure Survey of 2017-18, expenditure on food and beverages was around 33% for rural households and less than 30% for urban households. Just change the CPI basket to represent the real spending patterns of Indian households, instead of using it as an excuse to run an exploitative monetary policy? "The good news is that RBI is blessed with a leadership that interpreted the framework so flexibly in 2020 as to handle the risks of instability competently in the course of the year." Blessing for the rich, curse for the rest.          

Why is the US behaving like India?

"US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Monday urged the adoption of a minimum global corporate income tax, an effort to at least partially offset any disadvantages that might arise from the Biden administration's proposed increase in the US corporate tax rate," reported AP. "President Joe Biden has proposed hiking the US corporate tax rate to 28% from 21%, partially undoing the Trump administration's cut from 35% in its 2017 tax legislation. Biden also wants to set a minimum US tax on overseas corporate income, and to make it harder for companies to shift earnings offshore. The increase would help pay for White House's ambitious $2.3 trillion infrastructure proposal." The old tax and spend policies of Democrats. Yellen could be complaining about Ireland which has a corporate tax rate of 12.5% and just "6.25% for revenue tied to a company's patent or intellectual property". Yellen's speech will be music to the Indian government which lowered the corporate tax rate from 30% to 22% in 2019 for those that do not seek any exemptions, and to 25% for those that do, reported BBC. However, nothing is as it seems in India. A surcharge of 10% and cess for education and health add another 1-5% on the basic tax. Basic tax for foreign companies is at 40%. India has applied an 'equalisation levy' on e-commerce companies not based in India, which are mainly American companies. In retaliation, the US proposes to levy 25% tax on a range of Indian exports so that it earns the same amount of tax in absolute terms as India earns from its 2% levy. Yellen may also be worried about a fall in fertility. "Early in the pandemic, there were jokes about quarantine prompting a baby boom, but roughly nine months since COVID-19 triggered a national emergency in the US, experts are reporting a baby bust," reported USA Today. "Nationwide, a Thursday Brookings Institute report projects around 300,000 fewer births next year." "China has been among the worst-hit with authorities receiving 15% fewer registrations for babies," wrote Rounak Bagchi. "According to the figures released by China's Ministry of Civil Affairs, only 8.1 million couples registered for marriages in 2020, a 12% drop from the previous year." "With governments having racked up enormous borrowings to fund economic aid, the decline in new births will eventually lead to a smaller workforce, which portends lower economic activity and fewer workers to contribute to the tax base. It also means a lower ratio of workers to retirees." An ageing population with fewer working adults paying tax will be disastrous. "Just about every year for a decade, the world has been seized by bouts of despondency over slumping economic growth," wrote Ruchir Sharma before the pandemic. Since 2008, "the world economy has struggled to grow against the headwinds posed by Four Ds: deglobalisation of trade, depopulation as labor forces shrink, declining productivity, and a debt burden as high now as it was on the brink of the (subprime) crisis." "India has one of the youngest populations in an ageing world,"wrote Prasanna Balachander. "Around 90% of its population is under the age of 60, of which ~35% is under 19 years old." "To turn India into a factory to the world, (Prime Minister Narendra) Modi has put together a five-year infrastructure project pipeline worth 111 trillion rupees ($1.5 trillion), more than what the country has invested in almost previous two decades," wrote Andy Mukherjee. "Where Modi is going wrong -- and repeating Nehru's mistake -- is in choosing self-sufficiency over openness." Biden and Modi could be brothers.    

Have they been told to provide fig leaves?

"The 2020 TRACE Bribery Risk Matrix places India 77th in a list of 194 countries measuring business bribery risks," wrote Soumya Kanti Ghosh. "In 2014, it was ranked 185th, with an overall score of 80, out of 197 countries. In 2020, this has improved by 108 notches to 77." In 2011, then Chief Economic Adviser to the Government of India, Prof Kaushik Basu wrote a paper suggesting exclusive punishment for "harassment bribes" which are mainly committed by government employees. "The central message of this paper is that we should declare the act of giving a bribe in all such cases as legitimate activity." "In other words, what is being argued is that this entire punishment should be heaped on the bribe taker and the bribe giver should not be penalized at all, at least not for the act of offering or giving the bribe." Ghosh supports this suggestion. "Corollary: foreign investors have benefited far more than domestic ones from reduced corruption. This could be one reason why foreign investment has soared under Modi," wrote SA Aiyar.  Aiyar forgets that most of this so-called investment has come into stocks, while foreign investors have dumped government bonds. "They have pulled out $14 billion from India in the past twelve months even as the local equity market has witnessed $29 of net inflows from overseas," wrote Andy Mukherjee. "The liquidity magic is not working on bond markets", and, in India, "The entire yield curve has moved higher. This isn't a sign of optimism about growth, but rising oil prices and a hard to square arithmetic of next fiscal year's targeted budget deficit of 6.8 percent of gross domestic product, on top of an expected 9.5 percent shortfall in the current year that ends on March 31." Aiyar acknowledges that electoral bonds are opaque and using humongous sums of money to "persuade" members of opposition parties to switch to the BJP in states is corruption but says that the problem was no less in the olden days. That is the point. PrimeMinister Narendra Modi constantly attacks the Congress as being responsible for rampant corruption, which maybe true, but his government is no different. "The 2016 Rafale deal between India and France also involved the payment of 1.1 million Euros by aviation major Dassault to an Indian middleman, French publication 'Mediapart' has reported citing an investigation by the country's anti-corruption agency," reported NDTV. The money was paid to one Sushen Gupta who was arrested and granted bail in the AugustaWestland case, in which kickbacks were paid for the purchase of VVIP helicopters during Congress rule. In December 2018, in what was seen as a "major political coup for the Modi government, Christian James Michel, the alleged middleman in the Rs 3,600-crore (Rs 36 billion) Choppergate scandal was extradited to India from Dubai last night", reported Business Today. An innocent woman was the sacrificial offering in this political coup. Princess Latifa of Dubai was forcibly abducted from a boat in international waters and returned to Dubai and has been in prison ever since. Her crime? She wanted to live in the West. Human sacrifice is no longer practiced anywhere in the world. In 2018, "Parliament today passed a bill to amend the 1988 anti-graft law by seeking to punish bribe-givers for the first time along with bribe takers, as the Lok Sabha gave its nod to it." This gives complete protection for bribing members of opposition parties. Are Aiyar and Ghosh trying to provide fig leaves for this government? Have they been told to?       

Depends on whether you are collecting or paying.

"The Indian economy was on the path of high growth in March, a year since the government imposed a nationwide lockdown to contain Covid-19, according to the State Bank of India (SBI) Research's yearly Composite Index. The index touched a 70-month high of 55.9, in the range indicating high growth, after recording 55.2 for the previous month," reported Economic Times. A delighted Revenue Secretary Tarun Bajaj said in an interview with the Times of India (TOI), "Data for February and March have been a very pleasant surprise for us." "Gross collection of direct taxes would be lower by about 2-3% as compared to the last year (2019-20)." "On indirect taxes, we have created a record on GST collection." "I admire the resilience of the corporate sector. They have been able to tighten their belts, have had good revenues." He is happy that companies have paid higher taxes on increased profits due to a reduction in employees. India's middle class shrank by 32 million and number of poor, with an income of $2 per day or less, rose by 75 million. "The aggregate profit growth of BSE 500 companies has accelerated to nearly 46% year-on-year in the fiscal third quarter (October-December 2020), hinting at broad-based recovery and not just in select few big names," reported Financial Express (FE). "Wage costs, despite profit growth, have barely grown from the previous quarter." In 2018-19, number of income tax returns filed by individuals was 55 million, of which 33 million earned enough to pay any tax. Except agriculture, every sector showed a reduction in the number of workers, inflation is increasing and unemployment is still high, wrote Roshan Kishore. "The output of eight core infrastructure sectors contracted by 4.6 percent in February, data released by government showed," reported TOI. "The demand for work under the rural employment scheme (MG-NREGS) continues to be at elevated levels compared with the pre-Covid period," reported FE. This is a kind of unemployment benefit for the rural poor. "Generation of person days under MG-NREGS this year has already surpassed the highest tally in any year of 267.96 crore (2.68 billion) recorded in 2018-19 to touch 357.66 crore (3.58 billion) as on March 6." "GST collections rose 27% to hit a record high of nearly Rs 1.24 lakh crore (Rs 1.24 trillion) in March, helping to narrow the deficit for the full financial year to around 7%," said TOI. As a consequence, "Households across the country are facing the onslaught of rising prices and are witnessing a sharp dent in their monthly spend capabilities as prices of vegetables, groceries and transport mount steadily," TOI. "Price pressures have added to the burden of households dealing with job cuts, salary reductions and loss of income as the effect of the pandemic-induced lockdown still plays out across some sectors, despite a strong economic recovery." Since the goods and services tax (GST) is collected as a percentage of the price of any goods or service, it accentuates the effect of any rise in price. "Trade numbers between 2014-15 and 2019-20 show that export of low-value raw materials and import of high-value manufactured goods has characterised India's trade relationship with China, akin the ties the country had with its colonial ruler Britain in the years before Independence, said trade experts," wrote The Print. Tax collections mean good growth for the government. Very bad for us.       

Shouldn't there be charges if he is not compos mentis?

"Smugglers were caught on camera dropping two young children from the top of a 14-foot-high border fence separating the United States and Mexico authorities said." Under cover of the night, "One person was seen scaling the fence and dropping the children onto the US side. After both children land on the ground, the person atop fence climbs back down to the Mexican side before two people are seen running away." The two unaccompanied migrant children from Ecuador -- 5-year and 3-year old girls -- were rescued by US border agents and were unharmed. Luckily. Not so lucky was a 9-year old girl from Guatemala who drowned while trying to cross the Rio Grande River from Mexico to the US. Her mother and 3-year old sister were found unconscious by US agents who were able to resuscitate them. "As of 21 March, US Customs and Border Patrol (CPB) agents were holding more than 15,500 unaccompanied children in custody, according to US media," reported BBC. "The Biden administration has so far denied journalists access to border facilities amid a surge of unaccompanied minors crossing the US-Mexico border, which has raised questions about its commitments to increased transparency," wrote Biden supporter CNN. "The Biden administration on Wednesday -- for the first time -- let journalists into a Texas border facility housing young migrants who crossed the southern border, after weeks of denying access to members of the news media. But it has continued to keep reporters out of other, detention-like facilities filled well over their capacities," reported ABC News. "Images from inside those detention centres showed children overcrowded in metal cages, others sleeping under foil blankets." "They saw intake and dining areas, as well as a medical clinic, but they were not allowed to speak to any of the minors." China is condemned for not allowing foreign journalists into the Xinjiang province where millions of Muslim Uyghurs are held in concentration camps. The CNN was quick to take the Trump administration to court to force the White House to restore credentials of its feral reporter Jim Acosta so that he could continue to insult the president. Why is the CNN not taking Biden to court? After all, we are talking about the health and safety of innocent vulnerable children. "Securing our borders does not require us to ignore the humanity of those who seek to cross them," Biden wrote in an executive order reversing the unaccompanied minor policy and announcing an overall review of federal immigration procedures, reported BBC. "US President Joe Biden on Wednesday tasked Vice President Kamala Harris with tackling an influx of migrants on the Mexican border, aiming to take charge of a situation that has energized opponents of the new administration," reported NDTV. "I can think of nobody who is better qualified to do this," Biden said. But, "Vice President Kamala Harris laughed when she was asked on Monday if she has plans to visit the border as pictures show groups of migrant children living in overcrowded pens," reported news.com.au. Biden has signalled that he is not in charge by calling it a "Biden-Harris Administration" on the official White House site. Biden supporter USA Today reported that when asked if he is to run for re-election in 2024," Biden answered, "The answer is yes. My plan is to run for reelection. That's my expectation." He should have dodged the question, thinks USA Today, because now there will be speculation if Biden is compos mentis. By shielding Biden, the Democrats have pulled a massive fraud on the US electorate. Are Americans too stupid to realize?                

If professors are no different to us, what do we believe.

"At the end of one year since the onset of Covid-19 crisis, India can take pride in its accomplishments in at least four areas," wrote Prof Arvind Panagariya. "First, at 11.9 per 100,000 individuals, death rate due to Covid-19 stands at the lowest in India among the 20 most affected countries." This has been attributed to a predominantly younger population, with 65% of the population below the age of 35 years, maybe a less virulent strain of the virus and possibly exposure to other infections since childhood. A study by "Renuka Sane, an associate professor at the National Institute of Public Finance and Policy (NIPFP) and veteran economist Ajay Shah used the Centre for Monitoring the Indian Economy (CMIE)'s Consumer Pyramids Household Survey, which talks to over 200,000 households three times a year, seeking details about the whereabouts of each family member. The survey does not ask the cause of death. Using this data, Sane and Shah found a substantial increase in mortality in 2020. Their estimates show that deaths from all causes almost doubled between May and August compared with the same period for past years." "Coronavirus deaths in India are low no matter which parameter is assessed,"wrote Dr Tushar Gore. However, serosurveys showed that "21% of the population was affected by Covid by December end", which "equals to 280 million infected people" but "By December 31, the total number of cases identified were 10.3 million" which means that "in India, for every detected case 26 were missed". "Second, india has done better than its peers in handling the economy." Europe and the US governments spent trillions of dollars in fiscal stimulus but this only increased savings. The Economist estimates that "absent the pandemic, households in these countries would have saved $3 trillion during the first nine months of the pandemic. In reality they saved $6 trillion." Household savings in India went up to 21% in the April-June quarter of 2020 but came down to 10.4% of GDP in the next quarter probably because of the festival season in September- November. "Household debt to GDP ratio rose sharply to 37.1% in Q2FY21 from 35.4% in Q1FY21." Indians are much poorer than Europeans and Americans. "The latest issue of 'The Fiscal Monitor' published by the IMF shows additional public expenditure by the central government up to December 31 in response to Covid-19 amounting to 3.1% of GDP. The counterpart figure for the US is 16.7%. Of this, the spending on health was a mere 0.2% for India and 2.3% for the US," wrote Prof Pulapre Balakrishnan. What is responsible spending by the Indian government for one professor, is fear of rating agencies and a lack of caring for the other. Thirdly, the government has reformed farm and labor laws and is committed to large scale privatisation. The farm reform act resulted in the arbitrary arrest of Disha Ravi and the ridiculous filing of FIRs against teenage activist Greta Thunberg and singer Rihanna. Bank workers are already striking work against privatisation of public sector banks. Labor unions could join in anytime. "The only difference between a fiscal deficit and selling public assets lies in the nature of the government paper that is handed to the private sector, but the macroeconomic consequences of a fiscal deficit on the economy are no different from those of selling public assets," wrote former Prof Prabhat Patnaik. Professors seem to have diametrically opposite views. Perhaps depending on whether they are for or against the government. Just like the rest of us.

We vote to be extorted.

"The last 30 years have seen governments of all ideologies except the Left in Maharashtra. The extortion economy did not suffer," wrote Smruti Koppikar. "The extortion economy's tentacles tap into every aspect of urban life, from street vendors and large industries to the law enforcement agencies and the underworld." The system is known locally as 'hafta vasooli'. "In local parlance, hafta is 'protection  money' paid to a representative of the system in return for pardoning violations or to the mafia for defence against the system. Vasooli is typically 'recovery' of an agreed amount in return for favours -- a host of people with power, including politicians and gangsters could demand it." "It remained unaffected by Prime Minster Narendra Modi's demonetisation in 2016, which was supposed to end black money." If criminals are protected, anyone protesting against the system faces severe punishment. "When I entered Tihar (a prison in Delhi), I was shocked at the level of humiliation one is subjected to," wrote Maoist ideologue Kobad Ghandy. "Here I was, an undertrial, no sentence had been handed down to me, but I faced daily humiliation, worse than that of convicts, who were at least given responsibilities and could move around jail relatively freely." Ghandy was acquitted of the main charge in 2016, after 10 years in various jails. "After the Mumbai blasts, a committee headed by former home secretary N.N. Vohra prepared a report about the nexus between criminals, bureaucrats and politicians. Only 11 pages were made public two years later, of 110-page report submitted in 1993," wrote Shashi Shekhar. Anyone protesting against those in power receive brutal punishment as was handed out to Mazdoor Adhikar Sangathan president Shiv Kumar. Slum dwellers in the city of Bhopal were offered Rs 750 to take a coronavirus vaccine injection. "They say they later discovered from local activists that some of them hadn't been given an approved vaccine and had unwittingly taken part in a clinical trial for India's homegrown vaccine, Covaxin," reported CNN. "The push for Covaxin is tied up in national rhetoric, as India -- already the global leader in vaccine production -- aims to complete an ambitious rollout at home and engage in vaccine diplomacy by exporting Indian-made shots." A US firm has found that so-called evidence on activist Rona Wilson's computer was planted through a malware called NetWire, which is available for $10 online. "The firm said it connected the same attacker to a significant malware infrastructure which had been deployed over the course of approximately four years to not only attack and compromise Wilson's computer for 22 months, but to attack his co-defendants in the Bhima Koregaon case and defendants in other high-profile Indian cases as well." 'If democracy is not merely the holding of free and fair elections, India is no longer a democracy," wrote Prof Kanti Bajpai. "It is pitiless, humourless, and clueless, lashing out periodically to give us the impression of control and purpose." If a lot of Indians are feeling suffocated it is natural that "The overwhelming tone and nature of the international media's coverage of domestic political issues reinforce a narrative that India is turning its back on its democratic, secular, pluralist roots and its open free society is no longer as open and as free," wrote Chanakya. "The government's determination is to identify, talk to and promote those who agree with it. Those who don't agree with it are to be tracked, not to be engaged in dialogue, but to be, as a minister puts it in an awkward and surely unintendedly ominous turn of phrase 'neutralised'," wrote an editorial in The Indian Express. Extortion is official.          

It may not be our fault, but we will be made to pay.

"Fiscal year 2020-21 ends today, March 31. With an estimated annual contraction of 8% in GDP, 2020-21 has been the worst year in terms of economic performance in India since 1950-51, the earliest period for which data is available," wrote Roshan Kishore. Agriculture was the best performing sector with growth of 3%, but since it has a share of only 16% in gross value added (GVA), it could not prevent the economy from contracting. Services, with a share of 54.6% in GVA, suffered the most. The periodic labor force survey (PLFS) for April-June 2020 revealed a doubling of unemployment rate to 20%. The Center for Monitoring Indian Economy "(CMIE) estimates also suggest that the pandemic has led to further worsening of the gender gap in India's labor market." The labor force participation rate (LFPR) for women was 21%, one of the lowest in the world, even before the pandemic, wrote Udit Misra. "Sneha Dwivedi, the youngest member in her family of six in Atiswa village of Lucknow district, is a 'Shakti' micro-entrepreneur with Hindustan Unilever (HUL), distributing soaps, detergents and sanitisers to households," reported Times of India. She is among 140,000 working for HUL's Project Shakti, "A rural distribution network of HUL, Shakti was set up to enhance livelihoods and build opportunities for women micro-entrepreneurs in the hinterland." Life is still uncertain for millions of migrant workers who somehow made it back to their villages when the lockdown was suddenly enforced with just 4 hours notice. "The total number of migrant workers who returned to their home states was 1,04,66,152 (10.44 million, 1.04 crore), Santosh Kumar Gangwar, minister of state of labour and employment, said in a parliamentary response in September last year." Retail inflation fell to 4.1% in January 2021 but jumped to 5.03% in February. "The 2020 inflationary surge and subsequent moderation was largely driven by food prices, but over the past few months non-food inflation has been slowly gaining momentum in the economy." "The central government's plan to borrow a massive Rs 12 lakh crore Rs 12 trillion) in 2021-22 and additional Rs 80,000 crore (Rs 800 billion) in fiscal 2021 from the market has spooked the bond market," reported The Economic Times. "Already, the borrowing program of the central government for this financial year till date has been around Rs 13.17 lakh crore and those of state governments around Rs 7.17 lakh crore." So, what about revenues? "The Central government has collected only 47 percent of the revised full-year target of Rs 6.90 lakh crore (Rs 6.90 trillion) GST collection," reported Financial Express. "The coronavirus pandemic may have shrunk India's middle-class population by 32 million and driven 75 million below the poverty line in 2020, a Pew Research report said," wrote Asit Ranjan Misra. Despite strenuous government effort, "Official data of tax return filers in the current season showed that the number of individuals filing income tax returns claiming no taxable income has gone up," reported Mint. That will mean aggressive tax terrorism. Terrifying.      

We know about corruption in New York, do we know about ours?

In March 2020, New York Governor Andrew Cuomo denied hospital treatment to elderly patients suffering from coronavirus infections and then understated the number of deaths in nursing homes to help fellow Democrat Joe Biden win the presidential election in November. Cuomo has been accused of sexual harassment by several women in his staff. Despite all these serious accusations against him Cuomo has refused to resign till today. "The global media has heckled, mocked and ridiculed every step that India has taken during the pandemic," fulminates Abhishek Banerjee. "And yet, there is a year-long silence around thousands of elderly people being sent to their deaths in New York." "We have a term for this in India, taken from Bihar of the 1990s. It is called Jungle Raj." "The streets of new York now belong to murderers, car thieves and armed criminal gangs." "Because of mental hang-ups going back to our colonial past, we tend to give way too much weight to Western media opinion about India." Just because China is persecuting Uighurs because they are Muslims, does it mean that India should do the same? According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), India came in at 140th position in the list of nominal per capita GDP in US dollars in 2020. Not just foreigners, we Indians are groaning under the weight of corruption and tyranny. "The lower base of our administrative system is politically so powerful that one can not implement rule of law as a whole, despite the will to do it," wrote Shashi Shekhar. "In our system, only the faces change, neither such 'Dastoor' (convention), nor 'Dastoori' (kickbacks)." "After the Mumbai blasts, a committee headed by former home secretary N.N. Vohra prepared a report about the nexus between criminals, bureaucrats and politicians. Only 11 pages were made public two years later, of the 110-page report submitted in 1993." "The Supreme Court held that the government was not obliged to disclose the report." "Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government did not consult key ministries and states while imposing the world's strictest coronavirus lockdown a year ago, according to an investigation by the BBC's Jugal Purohit and Arjun Parmar. The day the entire nation was locked up there were only 519 confirmed cases and 10 reported deaths in India. Unlocking was started on 8 June 2020 and has proceeded in phases till today, but even as the restrictions were being lifted the number of new infections were soaring to nearly 100,000 per day. Millions of migrant workers suddenly thrown out of work decided to walk, along with little children, hundreds of miles back to their villages. Hundreds died of starvation, exhaustion and pre-existing diseases. Thousands were killed in accidents on roads. Text messages between Indian Republic TV anchor Arnab Goswami and former head of a TV-rating company Partho Dasgupta showed that "Goswami had prior knowledge of the (Balakot) attack and that it was designed to drum up support for Modi in his re-election bid in pending parliamentary elections". We have a list of wrongdoing in New York. Journalists trying to disclose corruption in India will be in great personal danger. Protecting criminals exposes us to crimes. We are hapless.

It's not just about knees.

"Agriculture and allied sectors account for about 18% of the Indian economy, but around 40% of employment," wrote Prof Mahambare, Prof Dhanaraj and Sharma. Analysing workers in prime age group of 20-59 years, "Our estimates show that there has been a dramatic reduction in prime working-age Indians engaged in agriculture, with their share falling to 23.3% in 2018-19 from 40% in 2004-05." "There was an even sharper decline in the share of young adults (20-29 years) who work in agriculture." As a country develops, workers shift from agriculture to industries which offer sustained employment and higher wages. "However, what is particular to the Indian experience is that this decline is not mirrored in a corresponding increase in the proportion of prime-age adults taking up non-farm jobs. Rather, it is reflected in an increase in the share of prime adults leaving the labor market." Lack of employment leads to crime. "Unemployed, illiterate, school drop-outs, arrested for the first time -- these are common threads that connect almost every person arrested for snatching in Delhi since 2018, highlighting how one of the most serious concerns on the streets of the national capital is also its biggest gateway to crime," reported Hindustan Times. Snatching is forcible theft of property of pedestrians. In India, gold chains around their necks and handbags make women easy targets for such criminals. So brazen have they become that a woman was stabbed to death for resisting efforts to snatch her chain. Ironically, although women seem to be victims of unemployed young men, India has one of the highest unemployment among women. At 21%, labor force participation rate (LFPR) of women in India is less than that of Afghanistan, Somalia and Pakistan, wrote Udit Misra. "In other words, 79% of Indian women (aged 15 years and above) do not even seek work." The fall in the LFPR for women is mainly due to withdrawal of rural women from the labor force. "A member of Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party, Mr (Chief Minister of Uttarakhand Tirath Singh) Rawat went on to describe ripped jeans as clothing that both caused and was symptomatic of moral turpitude (among women) and criticised parents for allowing, their children, especially girls, to wear them," reported Geeta Pandey on BBC. "The overall filings of ITRs (income tax returns) including individuals, corporates and businesses shrank 6.5 percent in FY20," reported The Indian Express. FY20 means 1 April 2019 to 31 March 2020, before the effect of the coronavirus pandemic. "The coronavirus pandemic may have shrunk India's middle-class population by 32 million and driven 75 million below the poverty line in 2020, a Pew Research report said," wrote Asit Ranjan Misra. If our mothers, sisters and daughters are unhappy it is not surprising that "India has been ranked 139 out of 149 countries in the list of UN World Happiness Report 2021 released on Friday which is topped by Finland." Most people are miserable, women in greater proportion.    

Anything goes, if people are stupid.

On becoming president, Joe Biden "stewarded an economic relief bill amounting to $1.9 trillion through Congress", equivalent to "close to 9% of US GDP in 2019, the pre-pandemic year", wrote Prof Pulapre Balakrishnan. "It comes on top of the stimulus of $3.5 trillion undertaken by the Trump administration. These two packages combine to 25% of the country's GDP in 2019." In contrast, "The latest issue of 'The Fiscal Monitor' published by the IMF shows additional public expenditure by the central government (in India) up to December 31 in response to Covid-19 amounting to 3.1% of GDP. The counterpart figure for the US is 16.7%. Of this, the spending on health was a mere 0.2% in India and 2.3% for the US." Percentages do not indicate the true difference in spending. The US spent 25% of $21.43 trillion GDP on  stimulating its economy and 2.3% on healthcare for a population of 333 million, while India spent 3.1% of its GDP of around $2.9 trillion in 2019 on stimulus and a minuscule 0.2% on the health of a humongous 1,390 million people. "Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharman's budget aims to spend big to push growth. Outlays in key areas such as healthcare and infrastructure have been ratcheted up to spur economic activity," wrote Nikhil Inamdar for BBC. "Presenting a budget in a year of economic contraction for only the third time in India's history, Sitharaman chose to spend her way into securing a V-shaped recovery and placed most weightage on infrastructure, with a eye on the multiplier effect of building roads, rail lines and ports," wrote Aparna Iyer and Asit Ranjan Misra. "Detractors will cry about missed opportunity," wrote Ajit Ranade. "For now, though, the country is a clear winner, and kudos to the finance minister for a spectacular budget." "If the economy were indeed on a V-shaped recovery path, why are the government's tax projections for 2021-22 lower than what they were a year ago? asked Roshan Kishore. "There is an additional problem with what is a premature withdrawal of the fiscal boost. a lot of sequential recovery, especially in rural areas, was contingent on the government's support." There can be only two interpretations for the limited spending by the Indian government, wrote Balakrishnan. One is the government's economic ideology, and the second is that "it simply does not care". There maybe a third explanation and that is, the government is broke, having squandered Rs 11 trillion in 4.5 years it earned till December 2018 through enormous taxes on petrol and diesel, Rs 6.58 trillion from 2018-19 to 2020-21 from taxes, even as prices of fuel went up, and a handout of Rs 1.76 trillion from the Reserve Bank's (RBI) reserves. "The working class in India has historically been treated with a combination of contempt and apathy. Several surveys and reports highlighted the extent of loss of livelihoods and the corresponding hunger situation," wrote Rajendran Narayanan. Prime Minister Narendra Modi is trying out his new luxury plane while visiting Bangladesh which is celebrating its 50th anniversary of independence from Pakistan in 1971. That's the way the money goes. And pop go the people. Stupid people.

Let others worry, we are sanguine.

Following a meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on 16-17 March, "Federal Reserve officials continued to project near-zero interest rates at least through 2023, while upgrading their economic outlook to reflect greater optimism over the US recovery from Covid-19 amid a surge in Treasury yields," wrote Craig Torres. "Excluding food and energy, inflation is forecast to hit 2.2% this year and fall to 2% in 2022." "US central bankers left asset purchases unchanged at $120 billion a month and repeated that this pace will be maintained until 'substantial further progress' is made on their employment and inflation goals." Funds rate was kept at 0-0.25%. "Is the Federal Reserve losing control of the bond market?" asked Mohamed El-Erian, is liquidity responsible for bond market volatility and will this volatility affect the US economy. "The yield on benchmark 10-year Treasury note on Monday rose to 1.200%, its highest since March 2020," reported Reuters. Yields closed at 1.674% on Friday. "The recent pace of the rise in yields in the US Treasury market has been unsettling, according to several major bond fund managers who worry the market could be viewed as disorderly if the pace of rises continues." "The risk is significant and rising that the Fed will be less able to tame the bond market anytime soon because the high-probability means to do so -- active yield curve control -- comes with its own set of significant risks to market functioning, efficient price signalling and pro-productivity/growth allocation of resources throughout the economy," El-Erian feels, but the US economy will not be affected. "Indian government bonds are the 'good stuff' and must sell," wrote Andy Mukherjee. "Yet, a yield of just about 6% on 10-year rupee paper from a barely investment grade sovereign has none of the kick of the near 21% rate of return offered by a D-rated private borrower on a five-year note." "Foreigners have pulled out billions of dollars from India's bond markets over the past 12 months. Even domestic banks have been shunning debt auctions ever since the government's 1 February budget delivered the unpleasant news of a planned 6.8% deficit for the upcoming fiscal year, on top of a 9.5% shortfall in the year that will end on 31 March." The reason for the lack of demand for Indian government bonds is that, "Economists are already raising red flags over the retail inflation trajectory," wrote Aparna Iyer. "In February, core inflation, which is inflation stripped of food and fuel, rose to almost 6%." Core inflation maybe without fuel inflation but, "Part of the rise in core inflation has also been the surge in fuel prices through transportation component." "I am now prepared to contemplate the possibility that China might get the better of America by 2030," wrote Prof Anantha Nageswaran. "American society, macro policy and capital markets have all decayed and remain decadent. The simultaneous bubbles in multiple asset classes (and some of them are not assets at all) is a tell-tale sign of a society that has lost all its bearings, perhaps beyond redemption." If the US booms, interest rate will go up, the dollar will become stronger, fueling further inflation in India and economy will tank. If China wins, it will attack us and pay Pakistan to do the same. Fortunately, we have the indigenous cow which can be the "foundation of Indian economy". We are invincible.       

The inaccurate poultice of statistics.

"Had India clamped down on border movements, say, in the first week of February 2020, the spread of the virus would have been controlled. But it is always easy to be wise after the event," wrote Chairman of the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister Bibek Debroy. It must have slipped his mind that the then President of the US Donald Trump visited India at the end of February and was greeted with an elaborate reception at Motera Stadium in Ahmedabad in Gujarat, which has since been renamed Narendra Modi stadium exactly to the day of Trump's visit. Giving a long list of subsidies, Debroy wrote, "Rural India was relatively unscathed from both covid and the lockdown." Rural India includes those who were working in cities, known as migrant labor, tens of thousands of whom were suddenly left penniless and hungry, and resorted to walking hundreds of miles back to their villages, often with little children. "The average Indian household lost about Rs 25,000 in income", while "the bottom 10% of India's households lost 30 percentage points more of their income than the top 10%", wrote Lahoti, Jha and Basole. The rural poor were the worst hit. "The bottom rural decile lost 54% of their incomes in the covid months, while the richest decile experienced a loss of 16% in rural areas. In urban areas, the corresponding numbers are 39% and 21%, respectively." "One year later, the lockdown that caught them by surprise is over and many migrants who had lost their jobs have made it back to towns and cities but life is akin to the proverbial square peg in a round hole," wrote Economic Times. "The total number of migrant workers who returned to their home states was 1,04,66,152 (over 10.4 million)", with  "Many people lost their loved ones in their perilous journeys undertaken, some succumbing to heat and hunger and some caught in accidents. In May last year, 16 migrants sleeping on the tracks were run over by a train in Maharashtra." "The tragedy took on myriad forms and is still continuing." To save money for the government, "A recent discussion paper by the Niti Aayog has suggested a reduction in the coverage of beneficiaries under the National Food Security Act (NFSA) from 75% of the population in rural areas to 60%, and from 50% to 40% in urban areas," wrote Prof Himanshu. "The food subsidy for this year, at Rs 4.22 trillion, is partly explained by payments of past dues to the Food Corporation of India (FCI). So is the next year's food subsidy budget of Rs 2.4 trillion." "The high food subsidy is actually a result of the mismanagement of food procurement and storage by the government." "A government-appointed committee led by Prof M Vidyasagar of IIT Hyderabad had estimated that in the absence of the lockdown, infections could have risen to more than 140 lakh (14 million) by the end of June, and the peak load of active cases would have been around 50 lakh (5 million)," wrote Amitabh Sinha. There could have been over 2.6 million deaths. This either/or calculation is useless. We will never know what would have happened if only flights, hotels, restaurants and movie theaters were shut down and the rest carried on with social distancing, masks and hand sanitizers. As an economist Debroy is happy with statistics, but suffering is individual, as proved by harrowing stories of desperate attempts to survive. Self-congratulations do not seem appropriate.