Tax or trade.

"India has drawn up a list of over 35 items that are being examined for a possible customs duty increase in the upcoming budget, scheduled to be announced on February 1. Private jets, helicopters, high-end electronic items, plastic goods, jewellery, high gloss paper and vitamins are among the items that are on the list prepared by the government." ET. Because, "India's current account deficit (CAD) rose to a nine-year high of 4.4% of GDP in the quarter ended September from 2.2% of GDP in the preceding quarter." Customs duty was raised on a range of imported goods in the 2020 Budget. In 2020, "Consumers can expect to pay more for imported food and grocery items, shoes, ceiling fans, wooden furniture, kitchenware, appliances, hairdryers, shelled walnuts and other items with the budget raising basic customs duty to as much as 100% on some of them to encourage local producers." ET. Which means that, with competition being priced much higher, local producers can also increase prices on shoddy goods. On the other hand, "The free trade agreement (FTA) between India and Australia, came into effect from Thursday, December 29." Outlook. "India's goods exports to Australia stood at $8.3 billion and imports from that country aggregated to $16.75 billion in 2021-22," which included coal, mineral ore and wines. Cheaper raw materials should lower the cost of production in India. In May 2022, "The Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) between India and the UAE came into effect..., allowing most of the country's exports duty-free access to the Emirates." ET. FTA negotiations with the UK have come to a halt, despite Prime Minister of Britain Rishi Sunak's "grandparents on both sides were from India and had migrated to East Africa." The Converstion. Because India "has a 150% tariff on imports of Scotch, and bringing that down has been a key ask of New Delhi's trade negotiators from European trade commissioners, and now post-Brexit trade secretaries." BBC. However, "Whereas Indian leaders routinely express regret at having signed FTAs even with countries accounting for minuscule proportion of the country's trade, tiny Vietnam has boldly embraced such economic giants as China and the European Union in FTAs. It also has FTAs with every single Asian country of any significance," wrote Prof Arvind Panangariya & Deepak Mishra. Vietnam's export of phones soared from $0.9 billion in 2009 to $31.2 billion and its electronic goods exports stood at $122 billion, in 2020. India walked out of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) in 2019 and opted out of the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) in 2022, wrote Ajit Ranade. The government suddenly banned the export of wheat and then sugar, which makes it unreliable. India failed to get its bonds listed on global indices which could have increased inflows by $40 billion. "Euroclear, a major such platform, has pushed India to exempt the transactions from taxes to ease compliance. Other countries using the platform follow that policy." Bloomberg. Tax or trade? Can't have both.   

Export what we have.

"Inflation is likely to return to their central banks' comfort zone in 90 percent of the economies in Asia by mid-2023, Morgan Stanley said...adding that a number of factors are pointing toward an even faster pace of disinflation." ET. "Headline inflation has already peaked in nine out of 12 economies while core inflation has peaked in six out of 12 economies." Not so much in India, though. Consumer price (CPI) inflation fell to 5.88% in November from 6.61% in October, but core inflation increased by 5 basis points (0.05%) to 6.19% in November. "It has remained higher than 5.75% in the last 19 months," wrote Pavitra Kanagaraj. If prices are soaring it also means that the value of the rupee is falling. "The Indian rupee, emerging Asia's worst performer in 2022, is likely to extend losses in the next fiscal year, according to a top private bank in the country." ET. "The rupee declined over 10% last year, weighed by a dollar bolstered by the Federal Reserve's aggressive monetary tightening and India's deteriorating external finances." The rupee is trading at 82.37 to the US dollar this morning. xe.com. "Indian rupee is predicted to see a sharp fall in the first quarter of 2023, hitting a record low of INR84.80 per US dollar by April, forex market experts said." Arabian Business. A weaker rupee will increase the price of imports, including oil, and cause a further rise in prices. The silver lining is, "The projected rout in rupee is seen to be pushing up expat Indian remittances, especially from the Gulf region, as they can earn more from each dollar remitted." Already India is highly dependent on what our expats send back home. "India is all set to become the first country in the world to receive $100 billion in remittances this year (2022) from migrant workers abroad, according to a report by the World Bank." TOI. "With 18 million emigrants spread across the world, India has the biggest diaspora by a huge margin. Second-placed Mexico has only 11.2 million." TOI. And, Mexico's border with the US stretches for 1,951 miles. The White House. Indians sneaking across the US-Mexico border into the US illegally increased last year. "US Border Patrol caught 4,297 Indians crossing the Mexican border in October and November, compared to 1,426 during those two months last year (2021), and 16,236 in all of the fiscal year that ended in September, according to the American government data." ET. The bad news is that "As thousands of Indian techies continue to lose jobs at Big Tech companies amid recession fears, most of them are finding it difficult to get jobs, as there is a freeze on new hiring at nearly every top firm, amid global macroeconomic conditions and recession fears." ET. On top of that, "India's current account deficit (CAD), which is already at a nine-year high, is set to worsen further going forward due to the current scenario of higher imports and slower exports, Deloitte warned in a report." The Wire. Oh dear! Down goes the rupee, up goes inflation. Exports going down? Never mind. Export more Indians.   

A false inversion.

"Wall Street's main indexes all gained more than 2% on Friday (yesterday) after December payrolls expanded more than expected even as wage increases slowed and services activity contracted, easing worries about the Federal Reserve's rate hiking path." Reuters. US non-farm payrolls rose by 223,000 jobs in December while average earnings rose by 0.3%, less than 0.4% of the previous month, and services activity declined for the first time in 2-1/2 years. "European markets climbed on Friday," as the euro zone "Headline inflation, which includes food and energy costs, came in at 9.2% year-on-year in December" from "November's headline inflation rate of 10.1%". CNBC. "While there are good reasons to be dour about the prospects for the global economy, 2023 doesn't have to be a write-off," wrote Daniel Moss. "One of the most telling decisions of the past few weeks came from Jayanth Rama Varma, a longtime hawk on the RBI policy committee, who has become skeptical. Varma dissented against the bank's December hike." Economist Campbell Harvey has shown that "US recessions have been preceded by an inverted yield curve - when short term rates exceed those of longer tenors - since the late 1960s." ET. Which is what has happened already. "Yields on longer-term US Treasurys have fallen further below those on short-term bonds than at any time in decades," and "A scenario in which short-term yields exceed long-term yields in known on Wall Street as an inverted yield curve and is often seen as a red flag that a recession is looming." WSJ. "Last week, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note dropped to 0.78 percentage point below that of the two-year yield, the largest negative gap since 1981." This time, Harvey, now a professor at Duke University's Fuqua School of Business, said in an interview, "I have reasons to believe, however, that it is flashing a false signal." Prospects for China are more uncertain. "Now, faced with an unpredictable - and uncontrolled - epidemic and financial uncertainty, people and companies are spending cautiously, suggesting that the road to recovery will be uneven and painful." ET. And, "As European and American shoppers tighten their budgets, China increasingly faces a double blow of slumping demand both home and abroad." "The teeming warehouses carved into the desert surrounding Laredo attest to an explosion of trade between the United States and Mexico." ET "American companies sobered by the supply chain upheavals of the pandemic and alarmed by the animosity between United States and China are reducing their dependence on factories across the Pacific by shifting production to Mexico." Where the US leads, Europe follows. "While European investment in China hasn't dried up in recent years, analysts say that the political dynamics have fundamentally shifted." DW. The US going up, China going down. Does it mean trouble on India's borders? Maybe the China virus will infect the Chinese army. After all it's their own pet.        

Subtle and sneaky. And insidious.

"Inflation rose sharply throughout 2022 across both advanced economies and emerging markets," wrote Prof Nouriel Roubini. "Specifically, many countries are now engaged in various 'wars'," and "accordingly, the US, Europe and NATO are re-arming, as is pretty much everyone in the Middle East and Asia, including Japan." Then there are the wars against climate change, future pandemics and "rising income and wealth inequality". Higher spending by governments will lead to inflation and "this 'inflation tax' is a subtle and sneaky form of taxation". In India, "The average inflation rate was 6.2% in fiscal year 2020-21; it continued to rule high for much of 2021-22," wrote Puja Mehra. "The RBI (Reserve Bank of India) concluded that inflation was the lesser evil compared to the collapse in growth" and flooded the financial system with liquidity by printing new money. Average consumer (CPI) inflation was 6.6% in 2020, rateinflation.com, fell in 2021 because of the ferocious Delta wave of Covid-19, but the average was 5.1%, still much higher that the government mandate for the RBI to keep it at 4%, ET. "India's hampered response was characterized by months of inertia from the government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and a startling lack of resources, according to interviews with two dozen scientists, officials, diplomats and health workers." Bloomberg. CPI inflation has been above 6% from January to October 2022, dropping to 5.88% in November. "The deceleration in food prices was largely responsible for lower-than-expected inflation. Food contributes 39% of the total CPI basket," wrote Pavitra Kanagaraj. However, "core inflation increased five basis points to 6.19% in November. It has remained higher than 5.75% in the last 19 months." How the government has benefited from the "subtle and sneaky" inflation tax is clearly shown by the rise in goods and services tax (GST) collections which has more than doubled from Rs 7.19 trillion in 2017-18 to Rs 14.76 trillion in 2021-22, cleartax.in, despite the pandemic. RBI forecasters expect CPI inflation to moderate to 5.2% in 2023-24, wrote Vivek Kaul. "Given that most of these forecasters are corporate economists, they have a tendency to underestimate inflation and then revise their forecasts as higher price levels become obvious. Take the case of 2022-23. Initially, the median forecast was for inflation of 4.7%. This has since been revised to 6.7%." Raising interest rates "will not produce more food, oil, or gas, but it will make it more difficult to mobilize investments that would alleviate the supply shortages," wrote Prof Joseph Stiglitz. He celebrates the victory of former shoe-shine boy and trade union leader Lula da Silva in Brazil's presidential election. Perhaps, Prof Stiglitz should look at Brazil's neighbors Venezuela, Nicaragua and Argentina, all with socialist governments. Why encourage inflation tax? It hurts the poor the most.

WHO will the world believe?

"In a big embarrassment for the country, Uzbekistan has claimed that at least 18 children have died after allegedly consuming cough syrup made in India. The Health Ministry of Uzbekistan has issued a statement stating that the children who died had consumed cough syrup Dok-1 Max - manufactured by Noida-based Marion Biotech." Zee. In October, "Gambia's government...said the number of child deaths from acute kidney injury , thought to be linked to Indian-made cough syrups, has risen to 70 from a previous toll of 69." Reuters. "The syrups were found to be made by New Delhi-based Maiden Pharmaceuticals Ltd." The Indian government never accepts any deaths. For instance, "More than 4.7 million people in India - nearly 10 times higher than official records suggest - are thought to have died of Covid-19, according to a new World health Organization (WHO) report." BBC. (Even that could be a serious undercount as car parks turned into funeral pyres last year. TOI). "India's government rejected the figure, saying the methodology is flawed." So, "Announcing that samples of four cough and cold syrups manufactured by Maiden Pharmaceuticals Ltd - an Indian firm - that were linked to the deaths of 66 children in Gambia have been found to be of standard quality, the government in a letter slammed WHO for failing to substantiate its charge that the India-made products caused the deaths in the African country." TOI. How to make friends, with Indian characteristics. However, "The WHO has said it stands by its action after India said that four cough syrups linked to child deaths in The Gambia complied with specifications when tested at home." BBC. "The WHO had issued an alert in October." It is obvious which report the world will believe. It is no consolation, but Gambia and Uzbekistan should understand that the lives of Indian citizens are even cheaper. "More than 130 people died, mostly women, children, and the elderly, after a suspension bridge, noted to be an 'engineering marvel', on Machchhu River in Gujarat's Morbi city collapsed..., days after it was reopened after renovation." News18. "The contractor seems to have just painted and polished all the cables ahead of the bridge being reopened to the public on October 26," a police official said." TOI. "The Rs 17 pass (Rs 12 for children) for a walk down the famous bridge turned out to be a death sentence for many." TNIE. Sources claimed that "around 650 tickets for the bridge had been sold ...when the bridge could only handle 150 to 200 people at a time." Rs 12 for the price of a child. Bridges and medicines have one thing in common: they are scientific products. And, science is being recreated. "A scientific conference organised by the Union government has drawn sharp criticism from a section of scientists for promoting non-science such as 'Panchmahabhoot as fundamental blocks of the universe instead of atoms' and the existence of 'ether' that was discarded by modern science nearly 150 years ago." DH. 'Panch' means 'five', 'maha' means 'big' and 'bhoot' means 'spirit'. Perhaps all of us will be transformed into spirits. Only they will prevail.   

There could be many trapeze artists.

India's "Key macroeconomic indicators such as GST collection, Purchasing Managers' Index, automobile sales (up 26% in November 2022 from a year ago) and power consumption (up 13.6% from a year ago) reflect an improvement in industrial and commercial activites," wrote J Shettigar & P Misra. "India's goods and services tax (GST) receipts in December rose 15% year-on-year to Rs 1.49 lakh crore (Rs 1.49 trillion or $18.07 billion) a government statement said...reflecting strong economic activity during the festive season." ET. It was Rs 1.46 trillion in November. "The gross GST revenue collected during December 2022 is Rs 1,49,507 crore." "The manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI), compiled by S&P Global, rose to 57.8 in December from November's 55.7. This reading is the highest since October 2020," and "The PMI average for the third fiscal quarter (56.3) was the highest recorded since one year ago, data showed." ET. "While both new orders and output continued to grow strongly exports rose at the slowest pace in five months," and "the rate of job creation eased to a three-month low." "Domestic passenger vehicles surged 23 percent to a record of 3.793 million units in 2022 as carmakers dispatched more vehicles to showrooms in December before impending price hikes in the new year." moneycontrol. However, sales of entry-level small cars and two-wheelers actually fell. "Even as production hit a record 1 million units in the September  quarter, sales of small cars fell 44% (mini-segment) and 9% (compact segment) in the fiscal second quarter, from the peak levels of FY19." Sales of mopeds dropped 51% and of motorbikes up to 110 cc fell 35% in the same period. Sales of ultra-luxury cars, valued at over Rs 20 million, "shot up by 50% in 2022, surpassing the previous high in 2018" TOI. "Sectoral deployment of bank credit for November 2022 showed credit growth to industry accelerating to 13.1% from 3.1% in November 2021. With credit growth to large industry rising by 10.5% against a contraction of 0,6% a year ago and to micro, and small industries rising by 19.6% as against 15.3% a year ago, the indicators pointing towards an uptick in the capex cycle of the economy." That's after, "Banks have written off Rs 11.17 lakh crore (Rs 11.17 trillion) from their books in the last six years till financial year 2021-22, Parliament was informed." ET. "Persistent inflation may be making companies cautious about new investments, leading to a slowdown in capital expenditure." Mint. This is supported by "India's unemployment rate rose to 8.30% in December, the highest in 16 months, from 8% in the previous month, data from the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) showed." ET. So what are they doing with the colossal amounts they are borrowing? Apparently, some have become trapeze artists, according to Dr Subramanian Swamy. And since India has stopped collecting statistics, qz.com, there could be many such artists. It's a circus.  

Insecure RDT.

In his annual New Year's Eve address China's President Xi Jinping said, "China's economy has strong resilience, great potential and vitality." But in downtown Guangzhou, the commercial hub of China, "Streets are lined with shuttered stores and workshops." "Roads and alleys once packed with migrant workers are now mostly empty." The chaotic reversal of the zero-Covid policy has led to "a tsunami of infections that has swept across the nation, overwhelming hospitals and funeral parlors." The Communist Party of China (CPC) exercised total control through "regionally decentralized totalitarianism (RDT), which combines highly centralized control over politics, ideology, and personnel with decentralization in administrative and economic affairs," wrote Di Guo & Chenggang Xu. However, during post-Mao reforms "RDT evolved into regionally decentralized authoritarianism (RDA)." That is huge, indeed. "However, since Xi came to power in 2012, China has shifted back towards totalitarianism." Not fully. Chinese leaders are now boldly displaying grey hair. "Dark suits, red ties and identical helmets of jet black hair," mocked Celia Hatton on BBC. But in November 2012, "retired premier Zhu Rongji had dared to go grey". Surely, that could not have been possible without Xi's encouragement, who was unabashedly sporting streaks of grey on his own head, as were several others, during this year's Party Congress. CNN. China's real estate market is in deep trouble. "Evergrande, which is the world's most indebted property developer, had been struggling to make payments on its over $300 of liabilities and missed a crucial repayment deadline on its offshore debt in December. Its shares have fallen by 75% over the last year in Hong Kong." BBC. "To maximize their financial gains from land, governments at all levels try their best to raise prices by reducing supply," wrote Guo & Xu. Then "Using land as collateral, governments across China have borrowed massively from state-owned banks pushing the debt-to-GDP ratio to 300% in the first quarter of 2019." "A 20-year-long real estate boom, fueled by proceeds from pre-sold homes and debt, has made Chinese property the biggest single asset class in the world, worth more than a staggering $50 trillion." BS. "China's home prices and sales have fallen for record 11 months in a row," because of "the refusal of tens of thousands of homebuyers to pay mortgages for unfinished construction projects." "As American companies recalibrate the risks of relying on Chinese factories to make their goods, some are shifting business to a country far closer to home: Mexico." ET. "China will almost certainly remain a central component of manufacturing for years," but, "In 2021, American investors put more money into Mexico - buying companies and financing projects - than into China." Will economic insecurity make China more aggressive, as the US believes? CNN. That will be bad for India.

The distant future.

In 2023, "Maybe the world will see the breakout of peace in Ukraine, the taming of inflation, lowering of interest rates globally and, hence, a fabulous stock market boom. On the other hand, maybe the Ukraine war will escalate, inflation will surge again, and a deep global recession will send stock markets crashing." wrote Swaminathan S Anklesaria Aiyar. Prescient indeed. But is the stock market the only index of the health of nations and the well-being of their citizens? "I am a qualified optimist." "But this assumes political leaders will ultimately be rational, and that can never be taken for granted." "India's economic momentum post-Covid-19 has been the inheritance of its own actions -- it comes from a few years of heavy lifting on policy," wrote Ridham Desai of Morgan Stanley. "With these changes, by 2031 we expect India's GDP to more than double to over $7.5 trillion, the stock market to compound annually at 11% to around $10 trillion, a discretionary consumption boom led by a rise in per capita income from $2,000 to over $5,000 and a quintupling of households earning in excess of $35,000/year to over 25 million, a rise in credit to GDP from 57% to 100%, causing a 17% annual compounding of credit growth, and a doubling of India's share in global exports." But then, "A research paper published by Goldman Sachs...projected Pakistan to be the sixth largest economy in the world by 2075 given 'appropriate policies and institutions' are in place." Dawn. "By that time, the research projects Pakistan's Real GDP to have grown to $12.7 trillion and its GDP per capita to $27,000." Meanwhile, Pakistan's foreign exchange reserves "declined by $294 million to $5.8 billion - their eight years' low - making it even more difficult for the country to repay its foreign debts." Dawn. To put that in perspective, "India's foreign exchange reserves fell to $562.81 billion in the week through Dec, 23, the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) statistical supplement showed."Reuters. Despite such huge reserves, "The Indian rupee ended 2022 as the worst performing Asian currency with a fall of 10.14%, its biggest annual decline since 2013, as the dollar rocketed on the US Federal Reserve's aggressive monetary policy stance to tame inflation." HT. And yet, "The Indian Rupee has been strong against every currency. Reserve Bank has used foreign exchange reserves that it has to intervene in the market to make sure that the Dollar-Rupee fluctuation does not go too much," said Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman. A strong rupee makes our exports much more expensive, so, "After contracting 16.7 percent year on year (YoY) to USD 29.8 billion in October, merchandise exports in November were USD 31.99 billion." BW. "Merchandise imports in November 2022 were USD 55.88 billion." Hence, our current account deficit (CAD) jumped to a 9-year high of $36.4 billion, or 4.4% of GDP. "The RBI said that the wider CAD was due to expanding merchandise trade deficit to $83.5 billion from $63 billion in Q1FY23." TOI. India at third, Pakistan at sixth, why do US banks predict fairy tales? Probably because no one will live till then.

We cannot change.

Former Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor C Rangarajan said that even if India becomes a $5 trillion economy it will remain a middle income country with a per capita income of $3472. ET. "Rangarajan further said in order to reach the level of an upper middle-income country, it will take another two years and to be classified as a developed country, the per capita income will have to be at a minimum of $13,205 and that will take more than two decades of strong growth of between 8 to 9% to achieve it." Our per capita income is so low because our national income has to be divided by our enormous population of 1.415 billion. worldometer. The good news is that "Two recent studies estimate the country's population to peak at 1.5-1.6 billion somewhere between 2040 and 2048. After that a rapid decline will lead to an end-of-the-century population of a billion or a little less." TOI. To increase income India has to become a manufacturing hub but, "Despite being the fastest-growing economy, with all previous governments, India was not able to attract investments in manufacturing due to ineffective policies and approaches." FE. Because, "Transporting raw materials and finished goods in India is still slow and expensive given the umpteen regulations and taxes, conditions of Indian roads, archaic labor laws and extreme weather conditions impacting road infrastructure." "Government levies have put vehicles beyond the reach of much of the Indian population, said Maruti Suzuki's chairman RC Bhargava." ET. "India's per capita income is about $2,300 a year, compared with $12,500 in China and $69,000 in the US, according to the World Bank." "Mahindra Group Chairman Anand Mahindra has shared a map of Indian states showing statewise care ownership per household percentage." Zee News. The average car ownership per household for India is a mere 7.5%. Many responded by tweeting that states with good public transport have lower car ownership. Which would mean Bihar with the lowest level of just 2% has the best public transport system in India. "We can't assume only the rich use what tax authorities consider a 'luxury'. Given Indian family sizes and road conditions, SUVs longer than 4,000 mm with engine capacities bigger than 1,500 cc and a ground clearance of at least 170 mm are not used exclusively by the wealthy, but must bear a 50% tax burden anyway." Mint. "In October 2022, Indian airlines carried 11.4 million fliers." Mint. "This is still 8% below pre-covid figures of October 2019." "Overtaxed petroleum products in India have always been revenue ploys rather than carbon-control measures. These have distorted the cost base of too many sectors, aviation included, and must end." India produced 102.5 million tonnes of fruit in 2020-21 but, "We hardly export any beverages." Because, "Australia, for example, has a standard 10% tax on all goods. In India, zero-sugar carbonated drinks and carbonated fruit-based drinks attract 40% tax (20% GST+12% compensation cess," wrote Arpita Mukherjee & Eshana Mukherjee. So, shall we drink to forget? Sadly, "High rates of taxation are crippling the alcoholic beverages (alcobev) sector and threatening the future of the liquor industry in the country, the International Spirits & Wines Association of India said." ET. Will anything change in 2023? Maybe, taxes will go up further. Still, Happy New Year to everyone.  

The wolf and the lamb.

Ukraine is at war with Russia and "the steady concentration of power in Vladimir Putin's hands over two decades of his rule is largely to blame," fulminates an editorial in the Mint. "The US has not shown much restraint either, sure, but this is aberrative: its top elected leader gets scandalous leeway under its democracy to act imperiously abroad." The use of military force by the US against other nations is not aberrative but is in its genes because the US was born from repeated attempts at genocide against native populations by means of war, exploitation and deliberate infection with diseases like small pox. cs.mcgill.ca. 2.5 million people died in the Korean war, Britannica, around 2 million civilians and 1.1 million North Vietnamese and Viet Cong fighters died in Vietnam, Britannica, from 151,000 to over 1 million deaths in the Iraq war, wikipedia, over 30,000 killed in Libya, cbsnews.com, and not to mention countless numbers killed through clandestine operations such as Operation Condor, wikipedia, and indiscriminate drone strikes on civilians, Reuters, with complete impunity. "NATO integrated Air and Missile Defence (NATO IAMD) is an essential and continuous mission in peacetime, crisis and conflict, safeguarding and protecting Alliance territory, populations and forces against any missile threat or attack." NATO. It is brilliant strategy. Threaten other nations by placing missiles on their borders and then accuse them of aggression, CSIS, as they increase their own defence systems to protect themselves. It's the classic story of the Wolf and the Lamb in the Library of the US Congress. "Pundits reviewing 2022 are heaving a sigh of relief," wrote Pankaj Mishra. The West may think it is winning but "a general discontent with the old order, exacerbated by the pandemic, is fueling a revival of the Left in South America, Europe and Australasia." Hegemony does not last forever and aggression almost always has consequences, as a direct result or as unintended consequences. China has been expanding its influence right to the doorstep of the US. "Beijing has signed free trade agreements with three countries, Chile, Costa Rica, and Peru and begun negotiations with Ecuador last February." Forbes. Almost 50 years after the US support for the coup that brought the brutal rule of Augusto Pinochet in Chile. wikipedia. Ironic. "Chinese enterprises have directly invested the equivalent of some $17 billion in projects, mostly in South America. With the equivalent of $137 billion in loans to Latin American governments, the Export-Import Bank of China has vaulted itself into the ranks of the region's lending leaders." "The Biden administration is accusing Russia of moving to provide advanced military assistance to Iran, including air defense systems, helicopters and fighter jets, part of the deepening cooperation between the two nations as Tehran provides drones to support Vladimir Putins' invasion of Ukraine." cbsnews.com. After all, NATO's excuse for installing missiles on Russia's borders was to stop Iranian missiles. Providing proof to "What goes around comes around". Is the lamb choking the wolf?   

Yields do not agree.

"Britain's economy is on course to shrink 0.4% next year as inflation remains high and companies put investment on hold, with gloomy implications for longer term growth, the Confederation of Business Industry forecast." Reuters. "The UK economy contracted by 0.2% in the third quarter of 2022, signalling what could be the start of a long recession." CNBC. "The country faces a historic cost of living crisis, fueled by a squeeze on real incomes from surging energy and tradable goods prices."  In the US, on the other hand, consumer spending increased to $14.179 trillion in the third quarter of 2022 from $14.099 trillion in the second. Trading Economics. But, while "The labor market has remained resilient, with unemployment rate at 3.7% in November, only slightly above the 50-year low," and "Wage growth, though not completely offsetting inflation, has been solid, at a 5-6% annual clip," "The personal savings rate, once boosted by fiscal stimulus relief, has plummeted from a peak of 33.8% in April 2020 to 2.3% in October 2022 - the lowest it's been since 2005," and "Credit card revolving debt has surged to an all-time high, at nearly $1.2 trillion." Morgan Stanley. "The downturn in the euro zone economy has deepened as high inflation and fears of an intensifying energy crisis hit demand, adding to evidence the bloc is heading for a winter recession." ET. The S&P Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to "a 23-month low of 47.3 in October from September's 48.1". India is unperturbed by what is happening in the developed economies. "Amid global shocks and challenges, the Indian economy presents a picture of resilience and the regulators are ready to take appropriate actions to preserve financial stability, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said." HT. But, "India's economic growth is now 'extremely fragile' and needs all the support that it can get, as private consumption and capital investment are yet to pick up, RBI Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member Jayanth R Varma said." TOI. India's "private consumption expenditure typically tends to form 55-60% of GDP. It grew by 9.7% during July to September, after it had grown by close to 26% from April to June," wrote Vivek Kaul. In absolute terms, India's Private Final Consumption Expenditure grew to Rs 41.379 trillion in the third quarter (July-September) of 2022. St Louis Fed. And yet, despite the rosy economic picture for India compared to predictions of recession in the US, UK and EU, the yields on 10-year government bonds in India is 7.322%, in.investing.com, 3.845% in the US, CNBC, 3.6640% yesterday in the UK, Trading Economics, and 2.464% in Germany. The marked difference is because dealers want to hedge against high inflation continuing in India and a consequent drop in the exchange rates of the Indian rupee against the dollar, euro and sterling. Because rich countries control inflation and the RBI thinks that growth will come from high inflation. So, the Indian government's borrowing cost is double that of the US, UK and Germany. Very high price to pay. Could the RBI be a problem?

Revenue and spending.

"Raising interest rates is not advisable even for developed countries, as it leads to higher input costs for industries and compromises the competitiveness of their products in the global markets," wrote Rahul Prakash & Neeti Singh. "Addressing an inflationary environment through a fiscal retreat could help put economies on a sound footing in the long run." "Fiscal retreat" means lower government spending. But, "The US House of Representatives...passed 225 to 201 a $1.7 trillion bill to fund the government for the rest of the fiscal year," providing "$772.5 billion for nondefense discretionary programs, and $858 in defense spending." CNBC. "The figures represent around a 5% increase in nondefense spending, and an 8% hike for the Pentagon and national defense." "Consumer prices rose 7.1% in November from a year ago the government said." ET. So, government spending is keeping track of inflation. "Shrugging off rampant inflation and rising interest rates, the US economy grew at an unexpectedly strong 3.2% annual pace from July through September, the government reported." ET. The total US government debt has ballooned to $30.93 trillion, which is 124% of GDP. fiscaldata.treasury.gov. However, "As of November 2022, it costs $103 billion to maintain the debt, which is 11% of total federal spending." "In the fiscal year 2022, federal revenue was equal to 20% of gross domestic product (GDP), or economic activity, of the United Sates that year $4.90 trillion." fiscaldata.treasury.gov. Which means interest payment on the huge US government debt was a mere 2.10% of total revenue. The Indian government budget for 2022-23 projected borrowings of Rs 16.61 trillion, which will increase interest payments to 43% of revenue receipts in 2022-23. PRS. The total debt of the Government of India will be an estimated Rs 152 trillion on 31 March 2023, but if the external debt is priced at current exchange rates then the total debt will be Rs 155 trillion. indiabudget.gov.in. India's "Nominal GDP or GDP at Current Prices in the year 2021-22 is estimated to attain a level of Rs 236.65 lakh crore (Rs 236.65 trillion)." pib.gov.in. At Rs 152 trillion our total debt is about 64% of estimated GDP but if it is taken as Rs 155 trillion, then it rises to 65.4% of GDP. So, although India's total debt/GDP ratio is almost half of the debt/GDP ratio of the US, our interest payment/revenue ratio is 43% to just 11% for the US. No comparison really. Big chunks of US government spending, such as Social Security, National Defense, Medicare and Net Interest, amounting to 41% of total spending, fiscaldata.treasury, can hardly be reduced. "While the Centre has said it will tighten its fiscal deficit to 4.5% of GDP by 2025-26 (it is budgeted at 6.4% this year), anxiety has been aired over this being too big a target." Mint. "Last week's decision to extend free food handouts that began as a welfare measure after the virus struck India was a sign of its lasting effects. Social spending cutbacks are unlikely for other reasons, too, such as general elections in 2024." Exactly. Why advise the US? We should put our own house in order. But, will we? 

Theft of spectacles.

"In my investigation, I did not come across any material to indicate that the Elgar Parishad held on 31 December 2017 at Shaniwar Wada, Pune, had any connection with an outbreak of (the Bhima Koregaon) riots which took place on 1st January 2018." These were reportedly the words of retired police officer Ganesh More, uttered on 20 December, before a Commission of Inquiry investigating the Bhima Koregaon violence. The Quint. "The NIA (National Investigating Agency) claims that 16 people played an active role in 'provoking' the gathered crowd at Bhima Koregaon with their speeches and triggering violence on the 200th anniversary celebration of the battle of Bhima Koregaon. While three persons have been released on bail, and one person died in custody, the remaining 12 continue to languish in the prisons of Mumbai." The Wire. "A US-based forensic firm...claimed that digital evidence used to arrest Jesuit Priest Father Stan Swamy in the Bhima-Koregaon case was 'planted' on his computer's hard drive, similar to two other cases involving human rights defenders Rona Wilson and Surendra Gadling." DH. "The attacker was responsible for compromising Mr Wilson's computer for just over two months. The attacker had extensive resources (including time) and it is obvious that the primary goals of the attack were surveillance and incriminating document delivery," reported Arsenal Consulting. "It should be noted that this is one of the most serious cases involving evidence tampering that Arsenal has ever encountered." 83-year old Stan Swamy, who suffered from Parkinson's disease, was denied straws and sipper for drinking. Gautam Navlakha was denied replacement spectacles after his were stolen in prison. BBC. Patients suffering from Parkinson's Disease develop tremor of the hands which means they tend to spill liquids from open cups or glasses. Mayo Clinic. Denying them simple aids such as straws is cruel, inhumane torture of a fascist state, and not the largest mother of all democracies, as claimed. NDTV. While sunglasses are stolen instantly, spectacles are almost never stolen because every individual has unique correction of visual acuity and astigamtism. The theft of Navlakha's spectacles could have been staged. In July 2021, Stan Swamy died of Covid while still in prison. "Historian Ramachandra Guha called his death 'a case of judicial murder'." BBC. While people are rotting in Maharashtra prisons following unsabstantiated allegations, "The Association for Democratic Reforms said in its report that 75 percent of the ministers in Maharashtra have declared criminal cases against them." Naturally, "All the ministers are crorepatis (multimillionaires) and the average value of their assets is Rs 47.45 crore (Rs 474.5 million)." Meanwhile, convicted rapist and murderer Gurmeet Ram Rahim was released on parole for 40 days so that politicians in Haryana could fall at his feet for blessings before an election. DNA. All of us in India are getting branded as fascist torturers. Who will rid us of this taint?  

Really close.

" 'I'm sure I will kill you - if I get to fire first,' warns the father." BBC. "He's on the phone to his son, who is in the Myanmar military." How has Myanmar come to a stage where a father threatens to kill his own son, if he can? In November 2020, Aung San Suu Kyi's NLD party won the general election "with the party gaining 396 of the 498 contested seats in the bicameral parliament. That no only puts it well over the 322 it needs to govern alone but gives it nine more seats than it won in 2015, when it swept to power in Myanmar's democratic elections after decades of military rule." VOA. On 1 February 2021, the military staged a coup, declared a state of emergency and announced that "power had been transferred to Commander-in-Chief of Defence Services Min Aung Hlaing." wikipedia. Thousands of civilians, including children, have been killed, thousands more arrested and Suu Kyi sentenced to a lengthy prison term. "Before the civil war, a job in the Tatmadaw, as Myanmar's armed forces are known, would bring higher social and economic status for the family. But last year's coup changed everything." "More than 2,500 people have been confirmed killed by security forces since the coup, the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners says. Total casualty figures for both sides are estimated to be 10 times higher, according to data from conflict monitoring group Acled." "For Pakistan's army and its ruling establishment, the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) was a chapter closed six years ago, in 2016." News18. "2022: Not anymore. And they may be a bigger threat this time." "The two-day hostage crisis in Bannu in northwestern Pakistan ended...with the army killing all 33 TTP terrorists who had taken over a counter-terrorism detention center in the garrison city." TOI. The terrorists "took police and army officials hostage...after one of the inmates hit a cop's head with a brick during interrogation, snatched his gun and freed other terrorists." "Pakistan is probably the only country in the world that is not the permanent home of its leaders. They are all anchored abroad with their capital assets in off-shore havens and refuges in stable locations. It is also the only country that flies in leaders, has them elected from pliant constituencies, and anoints them as prime ministers," lamented the Dawn. "Around 300 terrorists are present in Jammu and Kashmir, while 160 others are waiting on the launch pads to sneak into this side from across the Line of Control (LoC) in Pakistan, a top army commander said." ET. "China's National Health Commission (NHC) stopped publishing daily Covid-19 data...amid doubts about their reliability as infections have exploded." ET. At the same time, "China will scrap quarantine for travelers from 8 January, officials said," "to effectively reopen the country to those with work and study visas, or seeking to visit family." BBC. Thereby spread the virus to the whole world as it did in 2019. All these are direct neighbors of India. Keep your enemies closer, they say. But this is ridiculous.    

It's very simple.

"The central economic challenge India continues to face is the creation of well-paid jobs for the masses," wrote Prof Arvind Panagariya. We need manufacturing. "It is in manufacturing that unskilled workers become semi-skilled, semi-skilled skilled and skilled yet more skilled." China dropped industrial tariffs to 8.9% by 2009 and to 6.2% by 2021. "At the start of the Covid-19 pandemic, Bonnie Glick, then the deputy administrator of the United States Agency for International Development" came to believe that the US "should focus on making products at home ('reshoring' or 'onshoring'), closer to home ('nearshoring') or in countries allied with the US interests - a concept that lacked an established term but that she called 'allied shoring'." NYT. As countries look to diversify their supply chains away from China, India could take advantage by "progressive liberalisation and, as a first step, end all tariff inversion by dropping input tariffs down to rates applying to corresponding final products in the forthcoming budget." The unequivocal difference between China and India is that India has to hold elections at central, state and municipal levels, wikipedia, while Xi Jinping is the Emperor of China for life with a handpicked seven-member Standing Committee to carry out his whims. Outlook. In a poor country like India, 'freebies' are essential to win elections. "The ruling BJP has offered free subsidised housing, gas cylinders, toilets and sanitation facilities to people." BBC. "From cash transfers, health insurance and food to color TVs, laptops, bicycles and gold; politicians have promised voters the world." The "Union Cabinet...approved extension of free food grain distribution scheme for 81.3 crore (813 million) poor people for a period of one year." ET. Whether they are called subsidies or freebies they need a vast sum of money which means the government needs to collect taxes by any means. Hence, the high tariffs. The fiscal deficit, another name for government borrowings, in this year's budget was estimated at Rs 16.61 trillion and interest payments as a percentage of revenue receipts is expected to increase from 36% in 2011-12 to 43% in 2022-23. PRS. The government needs to collect equivalent taxes to fund its expenses. "Gross GST revenue collection for the month of November accounted for Rs 1,45,867 crore (Rs 1.46 trillion)." ET. GST collection is based on nominal GDP which means the Reserve Bank (RBI) intentionally tolerates a high inflation by increasing interest rate by minute increments - 35 basis points on 7 December. ET. Also high interest rates will increase government's borrowing cost and interest payments on debt. That may be one reason why, member of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) Jayanth Varma thinks the 35 bps rate hike was "unwarranted". ET. India "must overcome our fascination with a strong rupee," wrote Panagariya. "India's crude oil import bill nearly doubled to USD 119 billion in the fiscal year that ended March 31." ET. A strong rupee reduces the domestic price of petrol and diesel, which then allows the government to collect trillions of rupees in taxes. India Today. Indian politicians have absolute power. To prolong that state of invincibility they need to win elections, which means freebies to taxes to inflation to the rupee. Seems complicated. Actually very simple.    

Savings and strikes.

"Border control workers were the latest to join a group of public employees in the United Kingdom who have walked off their jobs this year, in an effort to enforce higher pay rises amid a once-in-a-generation cost of living crisis." DW. "The UK government pumped in military personnel and civil employees to keep airports running." "The strike coincides with train strikes, as well as nurses, ambulances and paramedics strikes that have taken place or were planned for this week." "Strikes have disrupted everything from train services to postal deliveries and hospital care. More workers are expected to take industrial action, as demands grow for better working conditions and pay increases to keep up with rising prices." BBC. "The annual rate of consumer price inflation dropped to 10.7% in November from 11.1% in October, the Office of National Statistics (ONS) said." Reuters. High prices hurt people at the lower end of the earnings scale and especially those living on benefits provided by the state. "In February 2022, 22 million people were claiming some form of benefits, in England, Scotland and Wales." BBC. Retired people get state pension plus occupational pension, wikipedia. The National Health Service is free at the point of care, wikipedia, which means that in a medical emergency an ambulance will collect the person and take her to the nearest hospital where she will receive whatever care is necessary without having to pay anything. The UK government funds all the benefits by deducting National Insurance contributions from all working people earning above a threshold, known as the Lower Earnings Limit. wikipedia. This means that the British do not need to save and if prices rise they find it difficult to finance their lifestyle. The Bank of England has been increasing interest rates to bring down prices. "The benchmark rate has gone up to 3.5% from 3% following the latest meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee." BBC. "It is the ninth consecutive hike since December 2021." "The Bank of England says about four million households face a higher monthly mortgage bill next year." This could have several effects. Extra mortgage payments will immediately reduce other spending by the same amount. First time buyers will postpone their purchases and those who find it difficult to balance their budgets may try to sell and move to a smaller property. This could put downward pressure on real estate prices. "In November, the Office of Budget Responsibility (OBR), which advises the government on the health of the economy - predicted that house prices will drop by 9% over the next two years." BBC. On top of all the problems "Firms are 'banging their heads against the wall' two years after post-Brexit trading began," and the "Centre for European Reform suggests Brexit may have reduced UK trade by around 7%." BBC. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak blamed the unions for causing misery. ET. Sunak's grandparents emigrated from India which makes him a Person of Indian Origin (PIO). MEA. We wish him an easier 2023. 

It's not revri.

"The Union Cabinet on Friday (yesterday) approved the revision of the pension for family pensioners of armed forces under One Rank One Pension (OROP) from July 1, 2019." ET. This will give a nice lump sum as recipients get arrears for two years. In July, Prime Minister Narendra Modi "warned people against the revri culture under which votes are collected by promising freebies and said this could be 'very dangerous' for the development of the country." India Today. However, OROP is not revri because "The decision has been taken with the aim to attract youth to join armed forces." But, this government forced through the Agnipath scheme for the armed forces in July 2022. Under this scheme soldiers will be recruited for only 4 years and then sent home with a one-time bonus of Rs 1.171 million. wikipedia. 25% of the recruits may be selected for a career in the armed forces, the rest will not get any pension. Elections to assemblies in 10 states are to be held in 2023, including "Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka, Telangana along with the Northeast states - Tripura, Meghalaya, Nagaland and Mizoram. Elections may also be held in Jammu and Kashmir for the first time since the abrogation of Article 370 in August 2019. BBC. "Union Cabinet on Friday approved extension of free food grain distribution scheme for 81.3 crore (813 million) poor people for a period of one year." ET. That would be about 57.5% of India's total population of around 1.414 billion. worldometer. "It will cost Rs 2 lakh crore (Rs 2 trillion). Centre will bear the cost." Union Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal said at a press briefing held after the cabinet meeting. This will take us nicely to the next general elections in India to be held by May 2024. wikipedia. However, this is not the mother of all revris. But why is this necessary when "Next year's optimism for India is driven by strong corporate earnings, a post-pandemic retail boom and an economy set to grow by 6% in the next fiscal year - which will make it the world's fastest growing major economy in 2023." Reuters. Surely, such strong growth will create millions of jobs and should reduce the number of poor people. "The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects India's real GDP growth to moderate to 6.8% and 6.1% in FY23 and FY24 respectively." TN. But the IMF also, "highlighted public debt sustainability risks. The Indian government differs from the IMF's position on the sustainability of its debt." Why such confidence? Nominal GDP or GDP at Current Prices in the first quarter (Q1) of 2022-23 was estimated at Rs 64.95 trillion while the Real GDP or GDP at Constant (2011-12) Prices was Rs 36.85 trillion. pib,gov.in. The enormous difference is because real gdp is calculated after making allowance for inflation. The government is so confident because it collects taxes on the nominal GDP and direct tax collections, after adjusting for refunds, have jumped by 26% to Rs 11.35 trillion, which is about 80% of its budget projection of Rs 14.20 trillion for the entire financial year. HT. Over 68.5 million have filed tax returns for 2021-22 so far this year. ET. This is just 8.3% of the beneficiaries of the free food scheme. And so, can be ignored safely. Why not add real revris with free grains?   

The cover of noise.

"India's Nifty 50 index (NSEI) struck a record high in December and is up 5% this year," "In contrast, MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (MIAPJOOOPUS) shed 19%." Reuters. "Next year's optimism for India is driven by strong corporate earnings, a post-pandemic retail boom and an economy set to grow 6% in the next fiscal year - which will make it the world's fastest-growing major economy in 2013." "Importantly, conditions are better than not just the crippling slump during India's devastating Covid surge last year but also the anemic growth of the debt-saddled last decade." ET. "Overall, September quarter private consumption rose 7.8% from pre-Covid levels in 2019," "fixed capital formation, an indication of investment activity, 13.5% from 2019," "While unemployment remains elevated at an average of 7.4% over the last 12 months till November." Borrowing by Indian companies has risen sharply wrote Niti Kiran. "The aggregate debt of the sample of companies covered in the analysis jumped nearly 10% between 31 March and 30 September to Rs 25.2 trillion." Why are companies borrowing if not to invest in new projects? "Analysts say it's to fund their working capital needs, which increased sharply in the first half of 2022-23 due to the spike in commodity prices." Companies are also spending their cash balance. "The combined cash and bank balance of the sample of companies declined 2.4% in the first six months of 2022-23 to Rs 3.5 trillion." "Former Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Raghuram Rajan...in a chat with Congress leader Rahul Gandhi claimed that India would be lucky if it achieves 5 percent growth next year." ET. "If you look at 2022 vis-a-vis 2019, it's about 2 percent per year. It's too low for us," he said. India's wholesale price index (WPI) inflation for November "was 5.85% year-on-year, government data showed", which was lowest since February 2021, when WPI rate touched 4.83%." Reuters. "India's consumer price (CPI) based inflation eased to an 11-month low of 5.88 percent in November on an annual basis from 6.77 percent in October, 2022." ET. If we leave out vegetables, oils and fats, CPI inflation in November would be 7.3%, wrote Vivek Kaul. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy sectors, Investopedia, "was at 6.5% in November and has been higher than 6% in eight of the last nine months." Professional forecasters for the RBI predict CPI inflation to ease to 5.2% in 2023-24. "Given that most of these forecasters are corporate economists, they have a tendency to underestimate inflation." "Take the case of 2022-23. Initially, the median forecast was for inflation of 4.7%. This has since been revised to 6.7%." No professional integrity it seems. There could be other potential problems. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) targets an inflation rate of 2% "for maximum employment and price stability". Some economists advocate that the Fed should target a higher rate of 3-4%, as in developing countries, which will increase its nominal interest rate and give the Fed more room to lower rates if needed, wrote Prof Vidya Mahambare. "This would mean that nominal and real interest rates in the US and these developing countries would be similar should respective central banks achieve their inflation targets." Investment funds would flow into the US pushing down other currencies and increasing their inflation. Since economic predictions are most likely to be wrong why do they go on making them? To fool credit rating agencies, to fool international investors or to fool us? Create enough noise .Drown the truth.

Passports to cars.

"Seventy-five years after Independence, 7.2% of India's population owns a passport with a majority having availed one in the past decade. As of mid-December, 9.6 crore (96 million) Indians held passports, and the number is set to cross the 10-crore (100 million) mark in the next few months." This must be a sign of rising prosperity leading to aspirations of seeing the world and enjoying new adventures. Unfortunately, as Indians learn more about the outside world they develop a rising urge to escape. "The Sri Lakshmi Visa Ganapathy Temple is a few miles north of the airport in Chennai (formerly Madras)" and "This 'visa temple' has surged in popularity among US visa seekers over the past decade; they can be found in almost any Indian city with a US consulate." ET. There are temples in India where devotees offer toy aeroplanes to the deity in the hope that they would be able to travel abroad. India TV. Not as tourists, but as immigrants. "India is set to be the world's fastest growing major economy in the year ahead, as a post-pandemic retail boom and recent bank balance-sheet repairs lure new investment, fueling hot demand for everything from cars to televisions, coal to airliners." Reuters. "Air India, for example, is looking at landmark orders for as many as 500 jetliners worth tens of billions of dollars from both Airbus and Boeing," but, "Unemployment remains elevated at an average of 7.4% over the last 12 months till November compared with 6.3% in 2018-19 and 4.7% in 2017-18, the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy estimates." "Banks have written off Rs 11.17 lakh crore (Rs 11.17 trillion) bad loans from their books in the last six years till financial year 2021-22, Parliament was informed." ET. Loan write-off is not a bonanza for borrowers, claimed the Finance Minister. "FM Nirmala Sitharaman...told Parliament that borrowers remain liable to repay loans despite a write-off by banks." TOI. But, surely limited liability means that shareholders and promoters of a company are not liable for its debts in case of bankruptcy? "While a shareholder can participate wholly in the growth of a company, their liability is restricted to the amount of investment in the company, even if it subsequently goes bankrupt and has remaining debt obligations." Investopedia. "The lady doth protest too much, methinks." wikipedia. Some Indians have surely made it. "Creating wealth at an unprecedented speed of Rs 1,612 crore (Rs 16.12 billion) per day, Gautam Adani has more than doubled his wealth in the last one year to beat Amazon founder Jeff Bezos as the world's second-richest man, according to IIFL Wealth Hurun India Rich List 2022." ET. Yah boo to Bezos. Blaming high taxation on cars and poor bureaucratic policy, Maruti Chairman RC Bhargava said, "We (India) are at around 30 cars per thousand people. This has been going up by one person per year in the last five years. If we have to reach China's level of 170 cars per thousand people, it will take us 140 years. Draw your conclusions." Why wrack your brain? Go to a visa temple. 

First Trump, now G20.

"In China, from 3 January 2020 to 4.54pm CET, 20 December 2022, there have been 10,088,555 cases of COVID-19 with 31,378 deaths, reported to WHO." "China reported 3,101 new symptomatic Covid-19 infections on Tuesday (yesterday) - as compared with 2,722 cases a day earlier." HT. "Currently, mainland China has confirmed a total of 386,276 cases with symptoms." "According to the National Health Commission, the country did not record any new Covid-19 related deaths." But, "Infectious disease expert Prof Wang Gui-qiang clarified that only pneumonia and respiratory failure caused by the coronavirus were counted as Covid deaths." BBC. "This has led to fears the numbers are an underestimate due to a recent reduction in Covid testing." What does it matter to us in India if the Chinese government is shamelessly and openly undercounting its Covid cases? After all, "The air travel (bird fly) shortest distance between China and India is 2,984 km = 1,854 miles." Because, the first ever case of coronavirus infection in India was when, "On January 27, 2020, a 20 yr old female presented to the Emergency Department in General Hospital, Thrissur, Kerala, with a one-day history of dry cough and sore throat." IJMR. "She disclosed that she had returned to Kerala from Wuhan City, China, on January 23, 2020 owing to the Covid-19 outbreak situation there." Coronavirus was confirmed by real time reverse transcription PCR (RTPCR) at the National Institute of Virology in Pune. On 2 and 3 February 2020, two more cases of Covid-19 were confirmed in Kerala, both of whom had returned from Wuhan in China. wikipedia. However, flights from foreign countries continued unchecked because the then President of the US Donald Trump and his family visited India on 24 and 25 February 2020. wikipedia. Over 100,000 people attended a rally in Motera Stadium in Gujarat. Mr Trump and First Lady Melania Trump visited the Taj Mahal in Agra where he received an "exuberant welcome" "which included dancers dressed as peacocks and horses". BBC. "On March 25, when India had reported only 500 cases, the country went into one of the strictest lockdowns in the world." HT. The lockdown was announced with just 4 hours notice, which led to massive panic buying with people packing into shops, thus creating the conditions which the lockdown was supposed to prevent. India Today. There was no lockdown in 2021 when so many people were dying that relatives were queuing with dead bodies and cremations being conducted in car parks of crematoriums. BI. The government "reported 481,000 Covid deaths between 1 January 2020 and 31 December 2021, but the WHO's estimates put the figure at nearly 10 times as many." BBC. There are 45-48,000 Indians living in China, as of 2015. wikipedia. We must stop all flights from China. Any Indians evacuated from there must be quarantined. Sadly, that will not happen. Because India holds presidency of the G20 from 1 December 2022 to 30 November 2023 and will host over 200 meetings. pib.gov.in. Politicians are not going to miss it before general elections in 2024. Will we count the cost in bodies?