Invent clever lies please.

 "An executive magistrate in Delhi yesterday ordered the release of CJP (Cockroach Janta Party) members Abhijeet Dipke, Ashutosh Ranka and Saurav Das after they furnished surety bonds of Rs 50,000 each, undertaking 'to maintain peace and good behavior' for one year." TOI. The magistrate has seen pictures completely opposite to what we have seen. "In scenes rarely witnessed aboard a commercial flight, the CJP's Dipke, Das and Ranka were detained from inside an aircraft shortly after landing in Delhi." "A Delhi Police team, notably comprising mostly women cops, entered the Air India flight from Mumbai within minutes of touchdown and detained the trio as co-passengers looked on and shot videos." India Today. Apparently, their crime was that they intended to protest peacefully against election fraud. On 17 May, "MEA (Ministry of External Affairs) Secretary (West) Sibi George strongly defended India's democratic system, diversity and minority rights during Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visit to the Netherlands." ddnews.gov.in. Since Mr Modi did not deny this bold assertion, we can assume this is official. "In India, fundamental rights are considered an essential part of the basic structure of the constitution, which in any case cannot be violated." And, "The right to a peaceful assembly without arms is a fundamental right under Article 19(1)(b) of the Constitution." iPleaders. On cue, "Acting on directions from the Delhi High Court, Delhi Police issued notices to leaders of the CJP,"  involving "allegations of a woman's photographs being doctored into objectionable images, which were circulated online." ET. That might explain the posse of female police officers to arrest the three leaders from the airplane. If any one of the men sneezed or coughed loudly a uniform could burst open and an extremely serious case of 'Outrage of Female Modesty' under Section 354 (LawyersclubIndia) could result. On 10 October, "Delhi Police has deployed more than 35,000 police and paramilitary personnel, set up six designated detention centers and prepared surveillance measures involving body cameras, facial recognition systems, CCTV cameras and drones." The internet was shut down around central Delhi and 45 Metro stations were closed. ET. All incoming mail and express trains arriving in New Delhi and Nizamuddin Stations between 4 am and 2 pm were cancelled. HT. The center of Delhi around Connaught Place and Jantar Mantar was completely sealed off and "By 9 pm, over 67,000 protesters had been detained across Delhi." HT. Traders estimated a loss of up to Rs 20 billion due to the closure of markets in and around Connaught Place. ET. What right has the government to convert our capital city into an internment camp disrupting the life of tax paying citizens of Delhi? "The UN human rights office has expressed concern over mass detentions during large scale protests, urging Indian authorities uphold the right to peaceful assembly and immediately release anyone arbitrarily detained." TNIE. To that, "In a statement, External Affairs Ministry spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal described the OHCHR's remarks as unwarranted and an unacceptable interference in country's internal affairs. Mr Jaiswal said that violent responses to protests in India's neighborhood,...had gone unremarked." newsonair.gov.in. Mass arrests, shutting down our right to travel and converting the whole city into an open air prison is not "internal affairs". We call it an infernal affront. Did he just admit that India has become a Pakistan? "The spokesperson highlighted that India is the world's largest democracy, where the right to peaceful assembly is guaranteed by the Constitution and safeguarded by robust institutions, an independent judiciary and a free media." Journalists and media personnel were arrested, and even assaulted, despite showing their IDs and cameras. TOI. There goes the "free media". "Judges of Supreme Court and high courts are, in effect, being appointed directly by Prime Minister Narendra Modi rather than the collegium, said former judge of Madras High Court K Chandru." TOI. So much for robust institutions. We do not object to lying to the world. What we object to is the lies are so barefaced and so obviously silly that it makes a laughing stock of India and Indians. Get someone to invent clever lies. Don't make us look stupid.       

Irrational markets making money.

Four days back, "The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) unanimously voted to raise the policy repo rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 5.50%, after a detailed assessment of evolving macroeconomic and financial conditions, developments and outlook." Expected Real GDP growth rate was increased from 6.7% to 7.1% for FY 2026-27, while consumer price index (CPI) inflation is expected to be 5.2% and core inflation to be 4.4%. ET. The day before the MPC meeting, "The rupee declined 0.15% to 96.43 per dollar" and the RBI is thought to have supported it. "The currency hit a record low of 96.96 in May." ET. From June to September the RBI raised $136.4 billion from overseas borrowing (DC), which ballooned the forward liability by $200 billion. "Will it be a case of too little too late?" as there has not been much change since its last meeting on 26 August. "Even at the newly-hiked rate of 5.50%, the real policy repo rate is negative, if one accepts the MPC projected rate of inflation during the third quarter (6%) and the fourth quarter (5.7%)," wrote Mythili Bhusnurmath. The Indian rupee has fallen to 96.70 to one dollar since then. xe.com. On 2 October, SBI Research called for immediate "protective guardrails" around the rupee and said, "the balance of risks has 'tilted decisively' towards a 25 bps rate hike." "The report said the global environment argues against waiting, pointing to rate increases by South Korea and Philippines in August and by the US, Japan, the euro area and New Zealand in September amid renewed inflation risks." BT. On 10 October, "SBI Research has called for stronger Reserve Bank of India (RBI) intervention to manage currency volatility," because of "a changing global financial environment, with a resurgent US dollar, uncertainty over the Federal Reserve's interest rate trajectory and rising international bond yields." BT. "In the week ended 4 September 2026, the country's forex reserves touched a record $785.71 billion,' but "by 2 October, reserves had declined to $734.6 billion, according to RBI data. The sharp fall suggests continued intervention by the RBI in the foreign exchange market." When the FCNR (B) scheme was announced in June, the rupee was trading at 95.74 to the dollar but despite huge inflows under the scheme the rupee touched 96.84 against the dollar on 7 October before closing at 96.77. One reason is that "In total, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have sold a massive Rs 2.85 trillion in Indian equity so far in 2026." BT. By selling dollars to support the rupee, the RBI is increasing FPI repatriation as they convert their proceeds. Effectively, India has borrowed dollars at up to 6.5% rate of interest (IDBI Bank) as a gift to FPIs to take more dollars home. "India's central banks governor Sanjay Malhotra said financial markets could be irrational in the short term and several measures suggested the rupee was undervalued." Reuters. In June 2025, the RBI cut its policy rate by a large 50 basis points, for a cumulative reduction of 100 bps in the four months since February  South Indian Bank. With inflation rising and the rupee under pressure, why didn't the RBI raise rates by at least 50 bps, instead of a cosmetic 25 bps, to show it is serious? "It's only in the long run they are able to find the right value (of the rupee)," said Malhotra. Indeed! "In the long run we are all dead," said the famous economist, John Maynard Keynes. Goodreads. Till then markets are making money. Because the RBI is giving them. No need to wait.    

The Silver Anniversary.

Mr Narendra Modi has been continuously in power for 25 years first as chief minister of Gujarat and then as the prime minister of India. "His followers are celebrating. His Cabinet has passed a resolution praising him." Suddenly, a perfect storm seems to be building. The Election Commission and the judiciary are not trusted, inflation is rising, even the 'Godi (lapdog) Media'  (wikipedia) is interviewing Opposition leader Mr Rahul Gandhi, inflation is climbing, the rupee is dropping, the US is humiliating India almost daily, foreign investors (FIIs) selling a cumulative Rs 358.61 billion of Indian equities (NDTV) and, worst of all, young people are laughing at Mr Modi. The Print. Billionaire Elon Musk alleged that, "Starlink was being blocked 'by certain oligarchs in order to maintain their monopolistic chokehold on the India people'."  "India defended its satellite internet approval process as fair and non-discriminatory." Reuters. Within hours Musk wrote on X, "Starlink is licensed in over 165 countries and has spent five years complying with every single law and requirement of the government of India, so why still no license? Is Ambani the real boss of India?" (NDTV. That is an indirect reference to Mr Modi. While Ambani is safe in India, other Indian companies with business in the US are not. The US suspended eight major technology companies, including Microsoft, Infosys, Wipro and Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) from Permanent Labor Certification (PERM) which is a pathway to getting a green card and permanent residency. ET. Vice President JD Vance said that companies were replacing American workers with "foreign indentured servants". Though Vance did not mention India in particular, New Delhi found the remark "deeply offensive and unwarranted". TOI. At home, "India's influential Gen Z-led 'cockroach' protesters are back on the streets - this time seeking electoral reforms and the resignation of Chief Election Commissioner (CEC) Gyanesh Kumar over allegations of manipulating voter rolls." BBC. Shiv Sena UBT Rajya Sabha MP Sanjay Raut said, "Before Gyanesh Kumar, Rajiv Kumar was the Chief Election Commissioner." "Rajiv Kumar and Gyanesh Kumar are criminals of the country." He also alleged that "the Election Commission and the system had been 'hijacked' since Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah came to power." ABP. The Cockroach Janata Party (CJP) called for a protest at Delhi's Jantar Mantar today but, "CJP has claimed that Abhijeet Dipke, Saurav Das and Ashutosh Ranka were detained upon landing at the Delhi Airport ahead of their planned protest at Jantar Mantar against CEC Gyanesh Kumar." HT. Delhi has been converted into a concentration camp (wikipedia) as "Delhi Police has deployed more than 35,000 police and paramilitary personnel, set up six designated detention centers and prepared surveillance measures involving body cameras, facial recognition systems, CCTV cameras and drones. If it sounds like the war in Ukraine where Russia and Ukraine are using semi-autonomous drones (The Conversation), then the difference is that this is not against a foreign military but against unarmed Indian civilians. Connaught Place, the center of Delhi, has been shut down which, traders say, will cause Rs 20 billion in losses. ET. CJP founder Abhijeet Dipke claimed that Mr Modi is "scared of the youth" and is "waging a war against his own people". ET. Mr Modi cannot allow Gyanesh Kumar to resign or be replaced because that would be tantamount to admitting that elections are fraudulent, perhaps including his own. Already foreign envoys such as the US Ambassador, the Australian High Commissioner, the Russian Ambassador and the Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim have met Mr Rahul Gandhi. DC. Mr Modi and Mr Amit Shah must be terrified of being forced out and having to face reprisals for their misdeeds. Also the BJP cadre, whose lucrative posts and impunity for crimes, depend on these two will not allow them to lose power. There are 165 foreign embassies and high commissions in Delhi (wikipedia). How long will they hold Delhi hostage and beat up unarmed protesters? Is that why Mr Modi, who loves photo ops in foreign lands, missed the UN General Assembly meeting in New York for the second successive year in 2026? Bol News. Hoist by his own petard (wikipedia). As it were.    

France in debt.

"Since the Cockroach Janta Party (CJP) launched its second campaign, School Thik Karo (repair our schools), on Independence Day, it has encountered resistance of strikingly different kinds across Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-ruled states. In West Bengal, a CJP volunteer's school inspection was followed by a violent attack on his family in which his father died;" in Rajasthan the CJP was confronted by a rowdy crowd to prevent them from entering schools and in Maharashtra CJP founder Abhijeet Dipke was booked. The Wire. The government has responded with savage violence to their peaceful protests, including permanently blinding some by indiscriminate firing of pellet guns (BBC) possibly because CJP volunteers are mostly adults who they think will not vote for them anyway. Gen Alpha are schoolchildren (The Print) and the BJP is chary of enraging their parents. Even as school protests have cooled somewhat in India, "Police fired teargas at protesters outside French high schools two days back, as teachers and students took to the streets on the biggest day of what Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu described as the most violent school protests in decades." Reuters. "France has suspended the use of stun grenades for policing student protests that have swept the country, after a 15-year-old's hand was blown off earlier this week." A 14-year-old boy lost some teeth and had his jaw broken when allegedly hit in the face with a tear gas grenade and "Prosecutors also said an investigation for attempted murder had been opened after a 17-year-old protester complained an officer 'held his head underwater' while trying to arrest him near a river." BBC. Stun grenades were invented to incapacitate terrorists without causing physical harm but can cause injuries or kill in close proximity and also cause fires. wikipedia. Treating schoolchildren as terrorists is a new low for President Emmanuel Macron. "More than 6,000 arrests and dozens of injuries have been reported in the clashes, as per Reuters." "French 15-year-olds scored 43 points lower in reading in 2025 than in 2015, according to the OECD's Programme for International Student Assessment, the biggest drop among OECD countries. Their mathematics score also dropped the most." HT. In November 2020, "Against the backdrop of student's protest - even in the midst of a COVID lockdown - and increasing police violence and repression, France passed the draconian Global Security Law which would make it an offense punishable by a year in jail and a 45,000 euro fine to film, post, and identify police officers committing violent actions." People's World. In May 2021, "France's top constitutional authority said it had rejected a key article of a new security law that could see prosecutions of people who publish photos or film footage of police officer." The Local. Why are schools in such a poor state in France? Because of Macron. "France is on the edge of a dangerous financial spiral," as it "now pays more to borrow than former crisis hot spots like Greece and Italy." France's debt is now 120% of GDP and the cost of servicing the debt is expected to climb 59% by 2030. Macron released 10 billion euros to mollify the Yellow Vests protests (wikipedia) that began on 17 November 2018 and ended on 28 June 2020. During the Covid pandemic, "Macron responded with massive spending programs to shield companies and households from the fallout."  "Macron also poured tens of billions of euros into a program that capped energy prices after Russia invaded Ukraine." The fiscal deficit has been above 5% for the last three years. WSJ. "Public debt levels have climbed across the world over the past two decades, especially in developed countries." "In the April 2026 edition of its Fiscal Monitor, the International Monetary Fund said, "Policymakers should realize that markets are becoming less forgiving. Over the past few years, investors have increasingly questioned assumptions of unlimited sovereign borrowing capacity - even for large advanced economies," wrote Niranjan Rajadhyaksha. Will the French economy crash? Being part of the euro zone France will be rescued but all the countries will see their borrowing costs rise. Other countries may be blaming Macron in colorful language which may explain his savagery towards schoolchildren. Pellet guns and stun grenades on students. Crime? Asking for a good education. What can be more innocent? 

Drowning in money.

The Finance Ministry's Monthly Economic Review for September 2026 "said the domestic economy continues to show resilience in a challenging global environment." "A strong El Nino could hurt the rabi crop through heat stress and lower soil moisture," and "Elevated crude prices could add to inflation particularly after the US Federal Reserve's 25 basis points rate hikes in September." ET. "Overall food inflation rose to 5.95% in August from 5.52% in July, while headline consumer inflation climbed to 4.82% from 4.45%." "Costlier onions, higher cooking oil prices, a jump in the cost of pulses, and the same shopping list can start becoming noticeably more expensive over time." ET. "The monsoon has failed. Rainfall was 12.6% below normal. In earlier decades, this would have spelt economic calamity and political earthquake." "In 1965, an 18.6% rainfall deficit caused a 3.7% GDP contraction." But in 2009, the GDP grew 8.5% despite a 21.8% rainfall deficit. The monsoon failed in 2014 and 2015 but the "economy soared 7.2% and 8.0% respectively," wrote Swaminathan Aiyar. However, "Despite claims that India's economy has become drought-proof, weak rains remain a key worry." "Inadequate rainfall reduces summer crop yields and leaves inadequate soil moisture for winter sowing." Higher fertilizer prices and lower harvests raise food prices and "Rural purchasing power weakens precisely when households must spend more on essentials. This combination transmits distress beyond agriculture to consumer goods, construction and small businesses. Imports can relieve supply shortages but worsen external finances," wrote Ajit Ranade. The US Federal Reserve raised interest rate by 25 basis points (bps) last month and could hike it once more this year. "The European Central Bank and Bank of Japan have raised rates too." Higher US rate "triggers capital outflows from other markets into the US." This weakens local currencies and leads to imported inflation." Mint. The Reserve Bank of India opened a dollar/rupee swap window for Foreign Currency Non-Resident (FCNR) (B) deposits for banks from June to 31 August. The RBI undertook to sell the dollars back at the buying rate during redemption of the bonds, thus picking up the full cost of hedging any depreciation of the rupee against the dollar. India Macroeconomic Indices. At the end of the window FCNR (B) deposits raised $127.23 billion, while "Overseas Foreign-Currency Borrowings (OFCB) brought in $5.260 billion, and External Commercial Borrowings (ECB) contributed $3.891 billion," for a total of $136.4 billion. DC. As the RBI swapped the dollars for rupees, "Surplus liquidity in India's money market has crossed Rs 11 trillion, leaving RBI to mop up an unusually large pool of cash unleashed by banks' $136 billion mobilisation of foreign currency deposit." CFO. The yield on 10-year government bonds is at 7.247% this morning. in.investing.com. "The 10-year India government bond (IGB) has hardened by around 50 basis points (bps) since the beginning of March, to about 7.20%." And, "it is interesting to see that the rupee is back under depreciation pressure," which "has also confused market participants about why $140 billion will not alleviate pressure." It is because, "The $200 billion forward book is being kept afloat through sell-buy swaps to roll over the dollar liability and maintain 'optimum' reserve levels." This means actual reserves are closer to $550 billion. "The question that begs the central bank is whether a 50 bps rate hike is enough? Will a 100 bps cash reserve ratio be adequate in permanently absorbing the troubling sticky and inflationary excess liquidity created by the FCNR scheme's much celebrated dollar inflows? asked Ajay Marwaha. Cash reserve ratio (CRR) is a portion of deposits collected by banks that must be deposited at the RBI without any interest. Investopedia. This is to reduce money supply. Poor monsoon rains, but it's raining money on the market. Will the RBI drown? And take us with it? 

A difficult ask.

The Special Intensive Revision (SIR) is undertaken by the Election Commission of India (ECI) to update electoral rolls across India by eliminating deceased, permanently shifted, duplicate and non-citizen individuals while adding newly eligible people, such as those who have turned 18 years of age before the date of the election (Constitution of India). "In June last year, five months before assembly elections in Bihar, the ECI announced an SIR of electoral rolls for the state," and asked people to produce documents to prove their identity. "In July 2025, petitioners including Association for Democratic Reforms and the People's Union for Civil Liberties mounted a constitutional challenge in the Supreme Court," but the judges refused to stay the election. SCO. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) won an overwhelming majority with 202 seats out of a total of 243 seats in Bihar, with the BJP being the largest party with 89 seats. wikipedia. However, the SIR in West Bengal became highly contentious as over 9 million, about 12% of the total electorate, were made ineligible, of which around 34%, or 3.11 million, are Muslims who the BJP thinks vote against it. BBC. The BJP increased its seats tally from 77 to 208, out of a total of 294 seats in the assembly, and so achieved absolute majority for the first time ever. wikipedia. Retired IAS officer Gyanesh Kumar was appointed Chief of the three-member Election Commission on 19 February 2025. wikipedia. "An investigation by The Indian Express reported that his two fellow Election Commissioners Sukhbir Singh Sandhu and Vivek Joshi had formally objected at least 14 times over 10 months to decisions and orders they said had been issued without their knowledge." BBC. "The ECI has termed allegations by Rahul Gandhi that Chief Election Commissioner (CEC) Gyanesh Kumar illegally and unilaterally changed Form 6 during the ongoing SIR of electoral rolls as 'misleading'." "It also pointed to a Supreme Court judgement of 27 May 2026, saying the court had upheld that order." NDTV. "Form 6 is the statutory application for new registration, not a device to launder wrongful deletion of genuine voters. Making already eligible, previously enrolled voters apply afresh shifts the burden from the Election Commission, which removed them, to citizens." The Wire. Yesterday, "Chief Justice Surya Kant said that any modification for Form 6 - the application citizens use to register as new electors - had not been approved by the top court." TOI. The ECI lied. Four days back, "India's influential Gen Z-led protesters are back on the streets - this time seeking electoral reforms and the resignation of CEC Gyanesh Kumar over allegations of manipulating voter rolls." BBC. To add to the chorus for Kumar's departure, Keralam has ordered the vigilance and anti-corruption bureau to investigate a World Bank-funded, Rs 2.15-billion road upgrade under the Kerala State Transport Project (KSTP) that allegedly led to a Malaysian civil engineer's suicide in 2006." A letter by the engineer apparently blamed Kumar, who was the PWD Secretary in Kerala at the time, for asking for bribes. TT. "Union Parliamentary Affairs Minister Kiren Rijiju has accused the opposition of executing 'a larger conspiracy to weaken India as a nation'." News18. Typical response of a fascist government which fired pellet guns at unarmed peaceful students protesting against a leak of questions for a selection examination (BBC). This time pellet guns were not used but, "Three female journalists have accused police officers in India of sexual harassment during street protests in the capital Delhi." BBC. The duo of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah have managed to suppress all criticism by using the police and other agencies to terrorise people but young people have had enough. They are refusing to be terrorised or to be pacified by empty words. Another problem is that no leader in the world uses his office to tour the world like Mr Modi does. pmindia.gov. And the foreign media is reporting extensively on the brutality of the Indian state. Sexual assault on women is especially reviled. The duo would like to suppress protesters with extreme violence and pretend to be law abiding at the same time. A difficult conundrum.    

Dot-com plus subprime, says RBI.

"Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Sanjay Malhotra said the Indian financial system remained resilient and the economy had navigated the West Asia crisis well, but policymakers needed to stay vigilant." "Malhotra cautioned against stressed valuations, especially those related to AI, elevated debt levels globally, elevated leverage that could spill over to banks and markets in case of tightening of financial conditions, private credit, and cyber risks that have been compounded by AI." ET. In short, a combination of the 'dot-com bubble', in which the soaring share prices of Internet technology companies reached unsustainable levels, leading to a sudden collapse (Britannica), which caused central banks to lower interest rates to stimulate a recovery and this led to a housing boom caused by lending to high-risk borrowers with poor credit rating, camouflaged by credit default swaps, resulting in the sub-prime crisis in 2008 (Investopedia). The Federal Funds rate dropped to 1% on 6 November 2002, rose to 5.25% on 29 June 2006, and dropped to 0% - 0.25% on 16 December 2008 (Forbes), reflecting the boom and bust cycles of the US economy. Market capitalization of AI related companies sounds like fiction, with Nvidia at $5.67 trillion, Alphabet at $4.16 T, Microsoft at $3.84 T, Amazon at $2.71 T, TSMC at $2.45 T and SpaceX at $2.1 T. Bullfincher. "Total US debt has topped $40 trillion for the first time, the Treasury department said, drawing fresh warnings that a fiscal crisis is brewing." Outstanding total public debt stood at $40.047 trillion. Reuters. "Global debt rose by around $7.5 trillion in the first three months of the year to a record high of over $324 trillion, data from a banking trade group showed." "The global debt-to-output ratio continued to move slowly lower, standing at just above 325%. However, in emerging markets (EM) the ratio hit a record high of 245%." Reuters. India is classed as an EM. India's "seasonally adjusted HSBC Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to a seven-month high of 55.1 in September after hitting a five-year low of 52.8 in August (below 50 is negative)." "High input costs are adding pressure across transportation, energy and manufacturing activities." "For manufacturers, there is little room to raise prices and protect margins." Mint. "While private consumption gained traction - rising 7.1% in the June quarter against 6.8% a year ago," "new project announcements rose 33% year-on-year (y-o-y) during the April-September (H1) period of fiscal year 2027 (FY27) to Rs 30 trillion." "Manufacturing, once a major contributor to capex, saw a 23.2% decline in new investments," while "intentions in construction and real estate plummeted 31.5%." Mint. While "the listed sector's investments amounted to Rs 12-13 trillion, (averaging about 4% of GDP) in the four years from 2022-23 to 2025-26," "the unlisted corporate sector invests as much as 10% of GDP, or more than two-thirds of aggregate corporate capex," wrote Nikhil Gupta. "While the listed sector's profits are closer to their all-time peak of 5.8% of GDP and its leverage ratio at 17% of GDP was at a two-decade low in 2025-26, the profits of the unlisted sector dropped to a 15-year low of 3.5-4% of GDP, while its debt-to-GDP ratio was at a seven-year high of 33% of GDP in 2025-26." As a result, the listed sector's capex is healthy while the larger unlisted sector has to reduce new investments. Foreign direct investment (FDI) is also down, with net FDI "down from nearly $44 billion in 2020-21 to under $1 billion in 2024-25, even as gross inflows touched a record $94.5 billion," wrote Ashish Dhawan & Piyush Doshi. Is the global economy careering towards an almighty explosion? Should we be concerned here in India? Perhaps, only a little. With a nominal GDP of $4.15 trillion (IMF), compared to Nvidia's market value of $5.67 trillion, and manufacturing contributing only 17% of GDP  (IBEF), the effect on us should be more of a ripple than a wave. Dot-com plus subprime? No problem.        

They can see it.

Last month, "US President Donald Trump and China's President Xi Jinping exchanged warm words at a lavish White House state dinner but gave little indication of progress on pressing issues." "Billionaire business leaders and US tech CEOs joined the leaders at the extravagant dinner." BBC. "The two leaders extended a trade truce, exchanged gifts and compliments, and acknowledged the possibility of working together to contain the dangers of AI development." And so, "the Washington trip was relatively uneventful. But for Xi's own ambitions, China didn't need much else." CNN. "Artificial Intelligence, which...Trump has now branded as 'super intelligence' or SI, is reminding more and more of the dangerous Cold War contest between the US and the erstwhile Soviet Russia. With AI companies themselves pointing at possible risk to humanity, it could be even more dangerous than nuclear weapons," so that, "What looked like another tech race between the US and China is turning into a contest over economic power, military capability and technological innovation, with both governments treating the control of AI as a matter of national security." ET. India shares a 3,488 km border with China (mha.gov.in) which, with its advanced technological and defence capabilities, is the greatest existential threat to India. This cloying relationship between the US and China is bad news for us. In addition, "Autonomous technology and defence firm Powerus," with "significant financial backing from...Trump's eldest sons, Donald Trump Jr and Eric Trump," "formalized a strategic Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) and received a limited procurement order from the Ministry of Defence of Pakistan for unmanned aerial systems and associated technical support." This strategic agreement, "signalling a notable warming of defence tech collaboration between Washington and Islamabad," "has heightened geopolitical stakes across the border, drawing serious concern from New Delhi." News 18. This is despite, or maybe because, Pakistan is an 'Iron Brother' of China, whose friendship is 'harder than steel' (CIIS). On the other hand, "Since 2025, India-US ties have been strained following Operation Sindoor, and the Trump administration's tariff announcement." During this time, "India's paid congressional operation in Washington has also shrunk from a multi-firm network to a single account." "Thus when India needed to position its Russian energy imports as an energy necessity forced by the Iran war rather than a policy choice, it had few allies left on the Hill." NDTV. In his speech at the UN General Assemby meeting in September, Trump again repeated his claim that he prevented a war between India and Pakistan after India launched Operation Sindoor on 7 May 2025 (pib. gov.in) in response to a terrorist attack on 22 April 2025 at Pahalgam in Kashmir in which 26 unarmed civilians were gunned down (wikipedia). "The Prime Minister of Pakistan, terrific man, said that Donald Trump was responsible for saving 30 million lives and probably many more than that," Trump said. NDTV. About 10,000 protesters turned up in Mumbai yesterday demanding the resignation of the Chief Election Commissioner Gyanesh Kumar for deleting voters' names from the election rolls in favor of the Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). TOI. This has been dubbed 'vote chori' (stealing of votes) and has made Mr Modi's election victories illegitimate. "Foreign diplomats are unable to ignore the new realities." "In this context, the meeting this May between Rahul Gandhi and the heads of missions of 27 European members was an unusual engagement. September witnessed separate meetings with the Australian High Commissioner Philip Green and Russian Ambassador Denis Alipov." US Ambassador Sergio Gor and Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim have also met Mr Gandhi, wrote Anil Tyagi. Mr Modi heads a minority government with the support of allied parties in the Lok Sabha. wikipedia. When they start getting jittery the end will begin to come. The countdown has begun. 10,9...      

Anything may happen.

"The US 10-year Treasury yield hit its highest level in 24 years on Thursday (1 October)," as "It rose to as high as 5.342%, surpassing its 2007 peak, and hitting its highest since 2002." Reuters. "French 10-year bond yields have also hit their highest levels since 2002, Britain's 30-year borrowing costs have touched 6% for the first time since 1998 and Japanese bond yields are at multi-decade peaks." "It adds to concerns about governments' rising borrowing and spending needs. The US debt pile has topped $40 trillion, while debt as a share of economic output is at or above 100% across the G7 group of major economies, bar Germany." "Bond yields set the tone for borrowing costs across economies, from government debt to mortgages to student and car loans." Reuters. "Eurozone inflation surged more than expected in September," as "Inflation in the 21 nations sharing the euro currency jumped to 3.8% in September from 3.2% a month earlier, exceeding expectations for a 3.6% in a Reuters poll." However, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and fuel prices, accelerated to 2.5% from 2.4%. Reuters. This might allow the European Central Bank (ECB) to wait and watch before deciding on interest rate. In its last meeting in August, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept its policy rate unchanged at 5.25% for the fourth successive time. Mint. But, the US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee raised the borrowing cost by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4% last month. Higher interest rates in the US, EU and Japan would increase returns and be an incentive for funds to divert their investments to these markets from riskier emerging markets. Already, "India faces a stiff challenge to attract capital flows as the global investment landscape is being reshaped by the artificial intelligence boom, renewed manufacturing ambitions in developed economies and the increasing weaponisation of global supply chains, according to the India Monthly Economic Review." ET. "Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) stepped up selling in Indian equities on 30 September, offloading Rs 101.4841 billion, their biggest single-day outflow in nearly six months." "Domestic institutional investors (DIIs), meanwhile, bought Rs 112.7173 billion, according to the NSE's combined FII/FPI and DII cash-market data." MC. Pressure on bond yields eased somewhat after, "the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis said that the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index rose 0.3% in August after a downwardly revised 0.1% gain in July. Core PCE inflation increased 3.0% year-on-year in August after a downwardly revised 3.0% advance in July." ET. "The US economy added 29,000 jobs last month, the Labor Department reported, well below economists' estimate of 90,000." Unemployment edged slightly higher to 4.2% from 4.1%. ET. The Finance Ministry's Monthly Economic Review for September 2026 expects the economy to grow 7.3% in the second quarter (July-September). "Interest rates in the developed world are rising sharply...and this will spill over into domestic yields. It also expects cross-border capital flows to slow, as higher rates persuade investors to stay in their home markets amid rising global uncertainty." ET. Already, yield on India 10-year government bonds jumped from 6.944 on 8 September to 7.209 on 1 October. in.investing.com. A lot of problems could be solved if the RBI increased its policy rate by at least 50 basis points, which would restore the premium with US rates, tempt foreign investors to return, stop the rupee from falling and reduce imported inflation. Will the RBI do it? Definitely not. The government has a fanatical belief that low interest rates increase economic growth, which gives bragging rights and helps in elections. What happens if problems mount? Just ignore them. It's called "Ram Bharose' (depend on Lord Ram). Will it work? Probably not, but may confuse people. Then claim anything. Confuse them more. Great.

The millions that matter.

Economist Ruchir Sharma ranks 50 emerging and frontier economies. India's score is somewhere in the middle and his favorite line is, "India is a country that consistently disappoints the optimist and the pessimist." ET. According to the M3M Hurun India Rich List 2026, India "has created more than two new billionaires a month for three years running." "According to the list, the combined wealth of the people featured in the rich list stood at Rs 187.5 trillion or $1.96 trillion, which is more than the GDP of countries like Turkiye ($1.64 trillion), Switzerland ($1.15 trillion) and Singapore ($0.66 trillion) among others." However, "To put it in perspective, according to the IMF, India's GDP per capita is $2,813, compared with Singapore's $1,07,760." Mint. "In nearly 250 districts, more than 25% youth (15-29 age group) are neither engaged in any productive work, nor are they pursuing education or any sort of training for work, highlighting a gap in human capital utilisation." "A recent Niti Aayog report pegged the number of NEET (not in employment, education or training) youth in the country at nearly 90 million." TOI. In addition to the chronically unemployed, "Thousands of jobs have been cut across India's global capability center (GCC) ecosystem this year as parent companies push for AI-led efficiencies and tighter workforce structures, even as their Indian units take on bigger technology and product mandates." GCCs employ around 2.4-2.5 million people in more than 2,100 centers. MC. "In India, approximately 8 to 15 million students graduate each year. Yet only 8.5% find jobs that match their qualifications and skills." "It is difficult to ignore the paradox: millions spend years pursuing higher education, but only a fraction eventually enter professions connected to what they studied." ET. "The engineering talent market faces a growing mismatch between candidate supply and hiring demand, with entry level job seekers accounting for 45% of the pool against the requirement of just 28%, a report said." ET. "India requires Rs 168-172 trillion of infrastructure investment through FY31, with Rs 70-80 trillion yet to translate into announced project pipeline, according to a joint report by the National Bank of Financing Infrastructure and Development (NaBFID) and Boston Consulting Group (BCG)." ET. Although 70% of India's electricity comes from coal, "A decade ago India's installed renewable energy capacity was barely 4GW. It now makes up 300GW or 54% of its total 552GW installed capacity - a target that has been achieved five years ahead of schedule." Perhaps too fast because "a bulk of the clean energy that was produced in India was wasted because the country's transmission lines have been dogged by missed targets, with one out of four inter-state projects facing delays of over a year." BBC. "India needs nothing short of 12 million new non-farm jobs annually." "Recent National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB) data, including its 2024 report, show that (i) unemployed persons form a large category among suicide victims; (ii) student suicides have risen; and (iii) a substantial share of suicide victims were Class 10, Class 12 and higher education students," wrote Prof Santosh Mehrotra & Jajati Parida. Billionaires are fine. What about the millions?        

Disbelief creates heroes.

"Inside dense forests of Rajasthan's Baran," "Sahariya women are transitioning from low-wage forest foraging to managing automated packaging units, supplying local produce to a guaranteed institutional market set to achieve an annual target worth Rs 80 million." "The initiative was conceptualised soon after IAS Balmukund Asawa joined as Baran district collector around 6 months ago and visited tribal villages in the Shahabad area of the district." ET. IAS stands for Indian Administrative Service which controls all government administration of the Central and state governments. wikipedia. The IAS is a continuation of the British Indian Civil Service (ICS) which was created by the Government of India Act 1858 and which "transferred the administration of India from the East India Company to the British Crown. Under Crown rule, the ICS emerged as what contemporaries and historians alike called the steel frame of British administration." Pubadmin.Institute. "Among the thousands of civil servants who keep India's vast government machinery running, a small number become unlikely public figures every few years." Recently, the commissioner of Maharashtra's Food and Drug Administration Tukaram Mundhe "has led a series of enforcement drives" in which "His team have inspected restaurants and other food businesses, uncovering pest infestations, poor hygiene and expired food." "These actions have made Mundhe a social-media celebrity." "But why are these officers treated as heroes for doing their jobs?" BBC. In Bengaluru, raids on hotels led to the seizure of 132 kg of various types of rotten meat, fish, vegetables and 15 kg of cooking oil. HT. Why has Mundhe become a hero? Because people have suddenly realized that these establishments were serving rotten food because they were not expecting any objection. It means that they could have been doing this for years, maybe decades, with complete impunity. It means previous officers must have been lazy or corrupt. And, it also means that an unknown number of people must have fallen sick, maybe even died, from rotten food. IAS officers curry favor with politicians, are indifferent to the poor and often fudge figures. "Secretaries to the states, who belong to the IAS, often collude with the junior staff, and don't honestly report figures on hunger deaths, malnutrition and usage of toilets, leading to an erosion of accountability," wrote NC Saxena. "Most (IAS) officers assume the trappings of feudal grandeur much like their colonial predecessors but without their efficiency, commitment, or impartiality. Their 'power' props begin with their massive office revolving chairs, with the mandatory white towel - changed regularly - draped over the back for reasons unknown." "These worthless, ironically known as public servant, are largely inaccessible to common people who obsequiously line up outside for redressal of their grievances, sometimes waiting the entire day without getting to see the 'sahib'," wrote Amit Cowshish. Prof Kaushik Basu was the Chief Economic Advisor to the Government of India from 2009-2012. wikipedia. "The use of the word, sir, is very common in Indian officialdom." A senior official, he counted, was saying sir "on average 16 times a minute (there was a minister present)." BBC. 'Chamcha' (sycophant) to a minister; arrogant, uncaring and mendacious with the people. Why do we create a hero of someone doing what they are paid enormously for? It's disbelief. Used to the rot.

AI can't mine fuel.

Earlier this month, "the G-20 finance ministers' gathering comes to a close amid a global bond-market selloff, spats over tariffs, public insults and fighting over a group photo." US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that "meetings were productive, tackling trade imbalances, artificial intelligence and sovereign debt." WSJ. "public insults and fighting over a group photo" - how childish can you get? And, these are the leaders of the top 20 nations on earth! Terrifying. There were serious issues to argue over. Eight days ago, "Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Vice President Adam Shapiro wrote, "We're seeing a pivotal shift in the US economy: investment is shifting away from residential investment and towards computers." "Hyperscaler capital expenditures are expected to reach about $916 billion over the next 12 months and nearly $1.2 trillion the following year." Yahoo. In July, Anthropic disclosed that its AI model Claude obtained internet access on three occasions. "In all three incidents, Claude had been tasked with a capture-the-flag challenge." "In all cases, Anthropic's evaluation prompts specified to Claude that its environment was a simulation and that it had no internet access." But, "when Claude's search led it to real systems on the open internet, it treated them as part of the exercise." Anthrop\c. "It sounds like something from a sci-fi movie," but "it happened this summer, when the tech company Hugging Face detected an attack on its systems. The attacker stole data and performed other unauthorized activity over several days." "Independent research groups found that hundreds of OpenAI agents conspired to attack Hugging Face." OpenAI is best for its chatbot ChatGPT. PBS. Sounds like a rape of poor Hugging Face. "A rogue OpenAI agent hacked an Australian government website in June and accessed private data in what experts say is the first known case of its kind in the world." "OpenAI said it only learnt of the breach in August," and alerted the Australian government on 10 September. Naturally Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese found it "obviously unacceptable." BBC. Three days ago, "OpenAI has acknowledged that it alerted "dozens of global institutions that their websites may have been meddled with by its AI bots acting improperly." Including, "the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Census Bureau and Education Department, the company said." BBC. "OpenAI will not release its new model - GPT-6.1 Astra - due to safety concerns, the ChatGPT-maker confirmed." BBC. "Artificial intelligence could kill the entire human species, according to people in the artificial intelligence industry. Specifically, they say, it could exterminate humanity within the decade." CNN. "Top AI leaders including OpenAI's Sam Altman and Anthropic boss Dario Amodei have urged the industry to slow the pace of development due to concerns about risks associated with the technology." Could it be a case of: "AI is a deadly poison but only we have the antidote, so give us more money?" "Today electricity consumption from data centers is estimated to amount to around 415 terawatt hours (TWh), or about 1.5% of global electricity consumption in 2024." Electricity consumption is expected to double to reach around 945 TWh by 2030. iea.org. Its voracious need for electricity makes it vulnerable to a blackout. Rogue AI may be able to get control of nuclear weapons or design a new bio-weapon by hacking into secure systems, it cannot get out of servers. Electricity plants need fuel and fuels have to be mined, which AI can't do. So create a system in which fuel supplies can be switched off and AI will die. In the worst case scenario.         

Approver will be approved.

"Three days ago, the Election Commission of India had a straightforward answer to The Indian Express investigation into how the three member body was functioning. Two of its members had recorded objections at least 14 times to decisions touching the core of the Commission's mandate: who gets registered as a voter, who gets deleted or restored, who appeals against those restorations, and who controls the system through which the electoral roll is maintained." The Election Commission of India (ECI) has three members, headed by Chief Election Commissioner (CEC) Gyanesh Kumar, and including Sukhbir Singh Sandhu and Vivek Joshi. The ECI is conducting a Special Intensive Revision (SIR) to weed out ineligible voters. The report by the Express has "created a furore, with opposition members demanding Kumar's resignation," accusing him of "manipulating voters' list to favor Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) during elections." BBC. Gyanesh Kumar is a retired Indian Administrative Service (IAS) officer (wikipedia) as was Mr TN Seshan who was the CEC from 12 December 1990 to 11 December 1996 (wikipedia). Till today, Mr Seshan is seen as a "legend" who "is credited with effectively implementing the model code of conduct for the first time, reining in money and muscle power during elections, filing cases and arresting candidates for not abiding by polling rules, and suspending officials for aligning with candidates." The Print. The ECI was created in March 1949, Sukumar Sen was appointed the first CEC in March 1950 and the first general elections were held in India between 21 October 1951 and 21 February 1952. wikipedia. "Hardly any post-colonial country that won independence in the mid-twentieth century can boast of having avoided a spell of military rule. The malaise was far worse in South Asia where the countries and the military shared heritage and history with colonial India." India's first prime minister Jawaharlal Nehru was instrumental in keeping the Indian army under civilian control. TT. Which meant submitting to elections every five years. "More than 120 million names have reportedly been deleted from electoral rolls. That is roughly 12.4% of the 970 million registered electorate around the 2024 election. The gap between the BJP-led NDA and the opposition was just 2%. Gyanesh Kumar isn't conducting elections. He is scripting them," wrote Cockroach Janta Party (CJP) founder Abhijeet Dipke on X. "It's time folks. It's time. And Gyanesh bro. It's done bro," quipped CJP spokesperson Saurav Das. HT. The BJP most likely does not trust Gen Z. "The annual summary revision of electoral rolls, an exercise  that facilitates the inclusion of 18-year-olds into the rolls has been delayed past its May-June announcement deadline for the year 2026-27 due to a lack of consensus between CEC Gyanesh Kumar and the two election commissioners." The Wire. Assembly elections to important states of Uttarakhand, Goa, Punjab, Manipur and Uttar Pradesh are to be held in February-March 2027. wikipedia. Elimination of Gen Z voters could improve chances for the BJP. Even worse, people may be losing their fear of the BJP attack dogs. "Congress MP Rahul Gandhi...alleged with '100% certainty' that elections in India including the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, were being rigged and demanded immediate resignation of CEC Gyanesh Kumar." ET. "Mr Gyanesh Kumar should think seriously about the position he is in, and he should turn an approver. That would be an act of nationalism," urged Mr Gandhi. An 'approver' is one who confesses to a crime and provides testimony against others involved. Dictionary. Will Gyanesh Kumar resign? Absolutely not. That would take character, self respect, shame. Sadly, these qualities are lacking in this government. And in the officials it chooses. Comfort in numbers.       

Yield to the bonds.

On 15 August 2025, "Ask almost any economist and they will tell you," that US President Donald Trump's "tariffs and crackdown on immigrants risk a return of 1970s-esque 'stagflation', when a sudden oil shock prompted stagnant growth and spiraling prices, except this time the crisis would be self-inflicted." "But after a busy few weeks of company updates, data on jobs and inflation, we still don't really know." BBC. The Iran war's economic ripple-effects, spike in inflation, job market wobbles and a sharp decline in consumer confidence "now risk pushing the economy toward stagflation - a combination of high inflation and weak growth," wrote Roger W Ferguson Jr. However, even though economic growth is down to 2.1% in 2025, "Among the Group of Seven nations, the US recorded the strongest growth." cfr.org. Yield on the 30-year US Treasury "rose as much as 5 basis points (bps) to 5.53%." "The 10-year note's yield also reached a multi-year high exceeding 5.22%." MC. India's economy is not linked to that of the US, we have a separate currency and a different central bank. But, "Rising global borrowing costs and elevated oil prices extended Indian government bonds' losing streak to a sixth week," as "The benchmark 6.94% 2036 bond yield rose 1 bp to 7.1194%...about 36 bps over six weeks." ET. This means an increase in the cost of borrowing for the government. "Govt will raise nearly Rs 7.9 trillion from securities in the second half of this fiscal year, reducing the total borrowing for the current financial year by Rs 1,204.94 billion." TOI. Multiplying an insignificant 36 bps by 7.9 trillion is a lot of money. The yield on the 30-year US Treasury is the highest in 22 years and the 10-year yield is the highest since 2007. "And when the world's benchmark bond starts offering investors a much higher return, the effects can travel from Washington to Mumbai, affecting the rupee, India government bonds and the RBI's room to maneuver." "An Indian bond, for instance, has to offer enough additional return over a US Treasury to compensate investors for the extra risks of holding an emerging market asset, including currency risk." ET. "FII (Foreign Institutional Investors) outflows from India have crossed Rs 1.51 trillion in 2026 as foreign investors shift money to relatively cheaper global markets. Rising US bond yields, a weaker rupee, higher crude oil prices and expensive Indian stock valuations are the main reasons behind this trend." Bajaj Finserve. "The rupee is likely to remain in the Rs 94.5-96 per US dollar range in the near term, with large dollar inflows through FCNR deposits and external commercial borrowings (ECBs) failing to translate into commensurate appreciation." "The rupee has depreciated by around 28%, moving from an average of Rs 74.44 per dollar in January 2022 to Rs 95.47 in August 2026." In the same period, the yen depreciated by 30%, the Indonesian rupiah by 24% and the South Korean won by 17%. ET. Between 2015 and 2025, FIIs have been net sellers in nine out of the 11 years and net buyers in just two - 2019 and 2022. On the other hand, domestic investors (DIIs) have been net buyers in 10 out of the 11 years, often by amounts much higher than FII selling. Moneyvesta. Thus domestic buying increases the price of stocks, giving greater returns to FIIs when they sell, while the RBI's support for the rupee gives them more dollars in exchange when they repatriate their profits. Despite all these gifts the US government and the Federal Reserve may, most likely will, continue to create problems for us. We are tied to their bonds. We have to yield.    

Was it only pomp?

Three days ago, "US President Donald Trump treated Chinese President Xi Jinping to a rare personal airport welcome,...kicking off a pomp-filled state visit aimed at smoothing superpower tensions on everything from AI and trade to Iran." NDTV. As Xi left Washington, "The summits between the world's two largest economies featured military flyovers, ceremonial tours and a state dinner, but left unresolved major differences over trade, AI, Taiwan and China ties to Iran." "One tangible outcome of the visit was that the US and China agreed to extend by two months a trade truce that was due to expire on November 10." Reuters. "Xi said he expects to meet Trump two more times this year. Xi extended an invite for Trump and his wife, Melania, to go to the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Shanzhen, China, in November." And "again a month later at the G20 summit at the Trump National Doral Miami golf club in Florida." ET. Why was this visit at all necessary? It is not as if China and the US are so friendly that the two were pining for each other, or so bad that a personal meeting was necessary to avert conflict. At 24% Trump's approval rating is the lowest ever and, at 53% to 41% (pbs.org), the Democrats are expecting to sweep both houses of the Congress in the mid term election on 3 November 2026  (ballotpedia.org). This visit is not going to help even one percentage point. "Satellite imagery and intelligence support provided by Chinese groups have helped Iran threaten ships in the Strait of Hormuz and launch precision strikes on US military bases in the Middle East." CNN. "Iran has used a barter-like arrangement to bypass sanctions on its oil sales and buy billions of dollars' worth of goods from China, including military gear," sources told Reuters. On the other hand, China helped contain the rise in the price of oil. "China sharply reduced its crude oil imports during the first half of the Iran war," as "Chinese crude imports averaged 8.1 million barrels per day in the second quarter, nearly 4 million barrels per day, or 32%, lower than in the first three months of the year." Apparently, Beijing had built its strategic petroleum reserve to around 1.4 billion barrels by the end of last year." BT. US blockade of Iranian ports has cut off its exports. "Iran's oil exports, which form the backbone of state revenues and foreign exchange earnings, fell close to zero in July after the US reimposed blockade, down from $4.5 billion in June." "Iranian oil stored at sea beyond the US naval fleet off its coast fell from roughly 180 million barrels to about 60 million in early July." WSJ. China's economy is not as hot as it used to be. "What might once have seemed unthinkable - unrelated adults sharing the same room and even their bed to save money - is emerging as a symbol of the financial pressures confronting many young Chinese." Reuters. This month, "China has imposed a range of sweeping new rules restricting travel in and out of the country in a move that observers say will give the government even more control over its citizens." BBC. Xi Jinping's hurried departure from Delhi after the BRICS summit last week gave rise to rumors that he had suffered a severe ischemic stroke." Mint. But Xi could have been afraid of a military coup back home. "News...of the ruling Politburo's expulsion of two top military leaders, Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli, from the Communist Party and the military, signaled the latest move in the long-running crackdown." "Initially the crackdown targeted corruption," "But increasingly it has taken on a political edge." Reuters. Since 2022, over 100 senior People's Liberation Army (PLA) officers have been purged, including 36 generals and lieutenant generals. China Power. Now, Trump is soon to become an extremely 'lame duck' president while Xi can't rest to recuperate because he is terrified of being purged. So, did Trump put on this show to make Xi look good back home, or does Xi have a plan to flood the world with oil, crashing prices and bringing down inflation which will make Trump look good. After continually asking for a deal Trump has rejected a ceasefire offer by Iran (Fox). Is that the result of a conspiracy between Trump and Xi? How will it pan out? So exciting. Suspense.  

A dupatta for protection.

"Prime Minister Narendra Modi today highlighted the achievements of Ayushman Bharat as the initiative marks eight years," and "noted that today more than 600 million beneficiaries have access to Rs 500,000 annual health cover, making it the largest healthcare scheme in the world." pib.gov.in. He forgot to mention that the rates for various procedures fixed by the government (hopehospital.com) may pay for the consumables, but not for doctors' fees and other hospital expenses, such as investigations, utilities and food. It is, therefore, a surreptitious tax on private hospitals and doctors. However, subsidized healthcare is necessary because of an explosion of violent crimes in the country. "For two hours, a Delhi-based creator," "wore a dress, got his makeup done, covered his head and face with a dupatta (a piece of light cloth women use to cover their upper body) and set out on the city streets at night - while recording the experience along the way." "By the end of the two-hour experiment, the creator says the repeated attention had left him shaken." ET. "It is not safe for girls to go out alone at night," he said. Or during the day as well. "Police in India have detained a man after footage appearing to show a car striking a female motorcyclist in the city of Gurugram near India's capital Delhi sparked national outrage." BBC. The accused, Kalyan Singh Bainsla, was arrested from Rajasthan. At the police station he said "he wanted to urinate before attempting to flee. He allegedly ran away but fell and sustained injuries before police caught him again." TOI. After the gang rape of a 17-year-old girl in a public park in Kalkaji's Astha Kunj area, "as students of gathered outside Lady Shri Ram College for Women in South Delhi to March for their own safety, many of them had wrapped dupattas and scarves across their faces or pulled on masks." They were afraid authorities might punish them. TN. Indians have to protect themselves from authorities in case the criminal is a relative or friend of a politician or a high official. "The annual summary revision of electoral rolls, an exercise that facilitates the inclusion of 18-year-olds into the electoral rolls, has been delayed past its May-June announcement deadline for the year 2026-27," despite two election commissioners Sukhbir Singh Sandhu and Vivek Joshi 'strongly advocating and urging the need' to resume the practice." The Wire. This may be because of the Cockroach Janta Party, comprised of Gen Z, protests at Jantar Mantar in Delhi in June-July which forced the resignation of the Education Minister Dharmendra Pradhan (wikipedia). "This came as the Modi government found itself besieged from multiple sides," with the protesters "shattering Modi's magic among youth through memes, parody and mimicry - so effectively that he took to Instagram at midnight in an unsuccessful bid to recover lost ground on social media." The Diplomat. If you cannot con them, disenfranchise them. There are more than 2,800 Registered Unrecognised Political Parties, or RUPPs. "A month-long BBC investigation examined six RUPPs that reported some of the largest donations in 20232-24. Together they received about 17bn rupees, despite fielding just 15 candidates in the 2024 election. None came close to winning." BBC. So, where is the money going? "Congress MP Rahul Gandhi...alleged with '100% certainty' that elections in India, including the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, were being rigged." ET. If that is true, this government is illegitimate. And passports issued by it. "Our passport is absolutely useless. Can't go anywhere good without waiting for days for the Visa or submitting a thousand pages," wrote Indian entrepreneur Jitendra Emmani on X. ET. Not surprising if we are having to hide our faces from our government. And its vicious stooges. 

Think before toasting.

"The world seems to be raising a toast to the India economy. Fitch Ratings...raised India's FY27 growth forecast to 6.9% from 6.4%, hours after S&P Global Ratings projected 7% growth, up from its earlier 6.6%. Moody's had already raised its forecast to 7% from 6% last week." ET. Great, Patiala pegs all round, except that a slew of ministers and government officials have been accusing the same three rating agencies of bias for years. In June, "The global rating agencies S&P, Moody's and Fitch have been unfair in recognizing India's economic fundamentals and potential, Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal said." DH. "India's net direct tax collections rose 12.96% year-on-year as of 17 September of financial year 2026-27, according to data released by the Income Tax Department." Net corporate tax collections rose to Rs 5.56 trillion from Rs 4.65 trillion and non-corporate tax collections increased to Rs 6.16 trillion from Rs 5.81 trillion. ET. So, people must be earning and spending more which is increasing company sales and profits. "Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) includes acquisitions less disposals of fixed assets during the accounting period," and "is expressed as a percentage of Gross Domestic Product (GDP)." World Bank. It is an indicator of new investments in the economy. "GFCF recorded a strong growth of 11.9% in the first quarter of 2026-27." "The Centre's capex has grown by 30% in the first four months of the year." Capacity utilization in manufacturing is at 75%, bank credit to large industries grew by 18% and "The intent of the private sector to invest is strong," wrote Rajani Sinha. "India's Goods and Services Tax (GST) revenue rose 14.8% y-on-y to Rs 1998.53 billion in August 2026" from Rs 1741.16 billion last year. ET. The cuts in rates of GST since 22 September 2025 have increased the sale of entry-level cars, two-wheelers and large screen televisions. ET. If India's GDP is skyrocketing, people are buying big-ticket items and the government is raking in oodles of taxes, everything must be hunky dory, as we Indians like to say. That being the case, why was it necessary to borrow $133 billion (about Rs 12.7 trillion) in Foreign Currency Non -Resident bonds (FCNR-B) from non-resident Indians (NRI) at very high rates of interest. ET. Gross GST collections grew 3.8% in the first five months of 2026-27 compared to a growth of 9.9% last year, E-way bills, which show movement of goods across the country, grew 10.2% in the first five months of 2026-27 compared to a 14.7% growth last year, while the fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) component of the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) grew by less than 1% in the first four months of 2026-27 as against 2.6% last year, wrote Madan Sabnavis. "Consumption in India now is being rebuilt around three new pillars: 1) elite consumption is booming as a new class of owner-operators prospers, 2) middle-class consumption is now financed by credit rather than by income, and 3) the state is withdrawing from providing public services to doling out large cash transfers each year to low-income voters." "Real wages for Nifty 50 employees have been shrinking at 4% a year since FY16. Meanwhile, the true cost of a middle-class life - school fees, hospital bills, transport costs, a decent Thali - compounds at roughly 9% a year," wrote Saurabh Mukherjee & Nandita Rajhansa. "The 'octopus class', according to Mukherjee and Rajhansa, comprises nearly 200,000 families across India, in small towns as well as big cities, or nearly 1 million people, who control nearly 80% of India's wealth." ET. The government is borrowing to give handouts and the middle class is borrowing to spend. What happens when the creditors come knocking? That explains why the rating agencies readily increased our growth rate but are careful about our credit rating. Think before toasting. There's many a slip....So they say.      

Getting very strange.

"Iran yesterday said that it is ready to open the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if the US eases military pressure and lifts its blockade on Iranian ports, Reuters reported, citing a senior Iranian official." "The comments came after the Iranian military was informed that the US was planning for renewed strikes with the support of regional countries." NDTV. Just three days ago, "Iran has sent seven conditions to the US to end the war in the Middle East, which has now escalated with hostilities between Saudi Arabia and Yemen's Houthis." "Tehran's message is clear and unambiguous; if Washington has to get out of the quagmire it has created itself and not get more entangled in it, it has no choice but to accept Iran's rights and conditions," said the head of Iran's Supreme National Security Council Mohsen Rezaei on X. From seven conditions to one in three days. So, what changed during this time? While it has created choke points for oil tankers at the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb, ironically Iran itself is running out of oil. ""Long lines at gas stations. Strikes by truckers. A government struggling to maintain the subsidies that had helped much of the population keep their heads above water." WSJ. Do you move food to avoid starvation or missiles and soldiers to fight the US? Even a regime that slaughtered over 30,000 unarmed protesters in January (BBC) may not want to see children dying of starvation. The problem is that Iran cannot be trusted. In July, "A ceasefire struck between the US and Iran to pause its full-scale conflict teetered on the edge of total collapse...when the US completed a second round of strikes in retaliation for Iranian strikes on commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz." Iran must give up its demand of collecting a toll on every commercial ship. Yesterday, "US President Donald Trump warned that he could annihilate Iran if there is no deal to end the war, but also suggested an agreement could come soon." Reuters. He also said that "he thought the US could make a deal with Iran after mid-term elections are held on November 3." Reuters. That is extremely curious because the Democrats are projected to win both houses of Congress in the election. The Consensus Forecast for the House is 214-201 for the Democrats, with 20 undecided, while Prediction Markets predict 231-201 for the Democrats with 3 undecided. 270towin.com. Predictions for the Senate are closer with 52.4 seats for the Democrats and 47.6 for Republicans. racetothe wh.com. The fractions are probably for seats in swing states. If the Democrats win control of both houses of the Congress they would surely vote to stop Trump from attacking Iran. Already, "The Republican-controlled US Senate has approved a measure demanding that President Donald Trump halt the war in Iran or seek congressional approval before continuing military action." BBC. The Democrats are itching to impeach him. "A large majority of House Democrats declined to follow their leaders in voting to reject an impeachment resolution targeting President Trump over his immigration enforcement policies." Politico. Why not finish the job now? Is it possible that the Hollywood US army has had enough? Maybe, the soldiers want to start preparing costumes for Halloween on 31 October. Terrify the Iranians by wearing Scream masks and shouting "Boo". All together now.