Profit from confusion.

"Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said...that India is aiming for a 'good' trade agreement with the United States," and "highlighted the necessity for India to navigate the escalating global tariff conflicts 'smartly' to protect against potential dumping of goods from nations facing increased US tariffs." ET. She is probably hinting at China when she talks about fear of dumping. "In 2023, Chinese exports to the US aggregated $500 billion." If Trump levies 60% tariff on Chinese goods, "Chinese exports to the US are expected to fall by 85%. This market will find its way into other markets including India." Already dumping of PVC by Chinese companies has hit Reliance, Chemplast Sanmar and Finolex Industries while dumping of steel has affected Tata Steel and JSW Steel. With a revenue of $100 billion (2024), Reliance Industries is India's largest public company and Mukesh Ambani owns a majority of its shares. wikipedia. "American trade negotiators are pushing for a level playing field for US-based e-commerce companies such as Amazon and Walmart-owned Flipkart with Indian firms such as Reliance," but India is resisting US demands. Mint. "Having gone all out to put a lock on India's 1.4 billion consumers, Mukesh Ambani can't afford to have Donald Trump smash open the latch with a sledgehammer." So, "Elon Musk entering the market with Starlink Inc, or Washington dictating tweaks to domestic policies that have kept Amazon.com Inc and Walmart Inc at a disadvantage on Ambani's home turf, could be destabilizing," wrote Andy Mukherjee. "Nearly half of all generic medicines taken in the US come from India alone." "The pharmaceutical sector is India's largest industrial export, according to GTRI, a trade research agency. India exports some $12.7bn worth of drugs to the US annually, paying virtually no tax. US drugs coming into India, however, pay 10.91% duties." BBC. Just when we are negotiating a trade deal with the US, "Generic drugs made in India are related to 54% more severe adverse events, including hospitalization, disability and death, compared to the equivalent generic drugs made in the US, a new study has found." ET. India is not without friends, however. "The president of the European Commission and all her fellow commissioners turned up in India last week," which "represented a major shift from three years ago, when India failed, in European eyes, to offer a strident enough condemnation of the Russian invasion of Ukraine." Europe also needs to re-arm and "India companies can scale up basic manufacturing - of artillery shells, for example - very quickly," wrote Mihir Sharma. India may also gain as the US looks to reduce imports from China. Trump has already imposed a cumulative 20% tariff on Chinese imports and is planning to target backdoor entry of Chinese goods through third countries. "For low-end manufacturing, where it doesn't make sense for the US to compete, Trump may favor importing goods from its allies with less exposure to China." Reuters. Donald Trump has thrown global trade into complete confusion. Can India fish in troubled waters and strike gold? We need to be clever and nimble. Can we?