Bracketed with China.

"This week, FM Nirmala Sitharaman defended the provisions of the new income tax bill, which allows any authorized officer to 'break open the lock of any door, box, locker, safe, almirah, or other receptacle...or gain access by overriding the access code to any said computer system or virtual digital space, where the access code thereof is not available." ET. There seems to be no safeguard for citizens, such as obtaining a warrant from a judge after showing credible evidence for any suspicion of wrongdoing or compensation for damage to property. The law makes officials completely unaccountable. "The police force, tasked with maintaining order and protecting citizens, has become a source of fear" because of "Custodial torture, third-degree interrogation methods and custodial deaths" as "The absence of accountability allows police officers to abuse their authority, often victimizing the very people they are meant to protect," wrote Karti P Chidambaram. A government, drunk with unlimited power over citizens, is unable to accept any objection to its actions from other countries. "The ministry of external affairs...strongly refuted a report published by the New York Times" which "alleged that between 2023 and 2024, a British aerospace firm, HR Smith Group, shipped restricted technology to HAL (Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd), which was later linked to transactions involving Russia's state-owned arms agency Rosoboronexport." TOI. "The government...hit out at US Commission on Religious Freedom (USCIRF) for raising concerns in its annual report about India's treatment of minorities and seeking sanctions against RAW for allegedly plotting to kill Sikh separatists.  TOI. "A report by the United States intelligence community has identified India and China as 'state actors' often 'directly or indirectly' enabling 'non-state actors' as sources of precursors and equipment for drug traffickers." DH. The US is accusing arms of the Indian State of facilitating smuggling of precursors of fentanyl to the US. India reacted furiously by expelling Canadian diplomats after former Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau publicly accused Indian agents of assassinating Canadian citizen Hardeep Singh Nijjar in Canada. BBC. Trudeau has resigned and Mark Carney is the new prime minister of Canada. AP. And yet, "India is likely to interfere in the Canadian general election on April 28 the country's spy service said." ET. Canada's Liberal Party has revoked Indian-origin Chandra Arya's bid to run for the party leadership and the nomination in his own Ottawa Nepean constituency over his alleged ties to the Indian government." HT. India is being bracketed with China, not for creating wealth or being a manufacturing behemoth, but as a delinquent state engaged in smuggling drugs, murdering citizens of other countries and oppressing minorities. A nation that brutalizes its own citizens with complete impunity becomes deluded in the width of its own power. Other nations will react. With anger. And contempt.        

Gun to the head good for us.

"Donald Trump has set April 2 as the date for implementing reciprocal tariffs on a range of imports," and "revealed he was initially planning to enact the tariffs on April 1. However, he decided to delay by one day to avoid the possibility of being accused of an April Fool's joke." ET. "India and the United States have agreed to finalize part of a bilateral trade deal by this year but neither side gave indications of any tariff exemptions for the world's most populous nation." "India's protectionist policies and its trade surplus with the US leave it open to retaliatory tariffs from the Trump administration." ET. Trump warned of a 25%-50% tariff on Russian oil if President Putin does not sign a peace deal with Ukraine. "India would be unable to do business in the US" because "India imports over 85% of its oil needs" and "According to a CREA report, India purchased fossil fuels worth EUR 205.84 billion from Russia from the start of the war until 2 March 2025." TNIE. India exports $2.2 billion worth of auto parts to the US every year. If 25% tariffs are applied uniformly on all countries, India will not lose its competitive advantage. However, what Indian companies "do fear is pressure from importers to absorb at least part of the cost, thereby eroding profitability." TOI. "The US is pushing India to relax non-tariff barriers," including local content requirements, differential tax treatment, quality control orders, data localisation policies, Minimum Support Price on agricultural produce and a level playing field for Indian and US banks. CNBC. That would be terrifying for Indian businesses which, protected by high tariffs and non-tariff barriers, are accustomed to making huge profits by selling to Indians at high prices without having to bother about quality or innovation. South Korea "spends 5% of its GDP on R&D, whereas India only 0.7%. Of this small sum, the Indian private sector contributes a niggardly 41% against Korea's 79%. Samsung invests 8-11% in R&D, but Reliance a paltry 0.6%," wrote Prof Dipankar Gupta. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been protecting a "small team of national champions" "from foreign competition, tariffs that in 2011 had almost fallen to China's 7% level were raised to 12% level by 2022, among the highest in the world. The preference for shielding oligarchs with hefty tariffs, favorable government contracts, as well as non-tariff barriers like stifling rules for foreign-backed commerce, has been pretty well known internationally," wrote Andy Mukherjee. The Indian government is "now convinced that Indian manufacturing will never be able to produce things more cheaply or with consistently higher quality than its peers," wrote Mihir Sharma. "The two moments when India carried out substantive reforms, it had a gun held to its head." "Trump threatening to pull the trigger will be the third. It is just what was needed to wake-up India's self-congratulatory establishment from its headline-managing fantasies," wrote Shekhar Gupta. If Trump does pull the trigger on tariffs, India can respond by exporting guns to the US. Trump has officially promised to protect Second Amendment rights. The White House. Let us supply him with triggers to pull. Compensate for tariffs. 

Interesting times.

In September 2024, "The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has approved a $7 billion loan to cash-strapped Pakistan." "Pakistan has taken more than 20 loans from the IMF since 1958 and is currently its fifth-largest debtor." BBC. On 25 March, "The IMF said...it has reached agreement with Pakistan on a new $1.3 billion loan program and reviewed an existing bailout that would, if approved, unlock an additional $1 billion." NDTV. The IMF may help a country in extreme financial difficulty but loans have to be repaid. "Argentina is one of the largest and most frequent borrowers of the IMF." In 2018, it received a record $57 billion loan from the IMF. "Fast forward to early 2025, and the country still faces an outstanding IMF debt of roughly $44 billion." Dawn. On 25 March, "Iran's currency hit a record low of 1,039,000 rials to the US dollar.., as the absence of nuclear talks with the US continues to fuel economic uncertainty." "The steep decline began after Israel launched devastating attacks on Iran's proxy, Hezbollah, in Lebanon in September, undermining Tehran's regional influence." The election of Donald Trump as US President has added to the pain. Iran Int. "The Chinese government has promised new child care subsidies, increased wages and better paid leave to revive a slowing economy. That is on top of a $41bn discount program for all sorts of things, from dishwashers and home decor to electric vehicles and smart watches." "While the US and other major powers have struggled with post-Covid inflation, China is experiencing the opposite: deflation," as "prices fell for 18 months in a row in the past two years." BBC. As China's economy slowed people cut down on eating out and "That unleashed a price war in which food providers are offering coffees at 9.9 yuan ($1.40) and four-person set meals at 99 yuan ($14)." "A restaurant in China has an average lifespan of just about 500 days, analysts say, falling to as low as a year in Beijing, where municipal data show net restaurant profits plunged 88% in the first half of 2024." Reuters. In 2010, China banned exports of rare earths to Japan after it arrested Chinese fishermen trespassing in its waters. Since then Japan has adopted a policy of "Critical mineral security and the 'garbage is gold' approach." However, waste production is shrinking in Japan but rising in India, so Japan is investing in India. FP. "China will export deflation and recession to the world," said Kotak Mutual Fund MD Nilesh Shah. "After Trump's aggressive tariff push, cheap Chinese goods - redirected from the US - are now flooding emerging markets. Countries from Southeast Asia to Latin America are grappling with job losses, collapsing local industries, and surging trade imbalances.' BT. Just a sample of economic turmoil in the world. Seems that everyone is going to live in interesting times  (wikipedia). Like it, or not.    

Gun to the head.

"Rebutting comments of the Opposition members made in Rajya Sabha," Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said, "So, in response to the tariff announcements made by President Trump, here are we doing it. No, we have been doing it from 2023." HT. Why were they raised in the first place? "Finance Minister Arun Jaitley's budget for 2018-19 proposed an increase in customs duty on a range of products - from fruit juice to mobile phones - to incentivize domestic value addition and boost the government's Make in India program." Mint. In Budget 2019-20, Ms Sitharaman "proposed hike in customs duty on 75 imported items to give a push to Make in India program." India Today. Again in Budget 2020-21, Ms Sitharaman "has provided a definitive push towards government's Make in India theme with import duties hiked on a host of products." BT. In Budget 2021-22, import duties were raised on electronics, auto components and agri produce to help in Atmanirbhar Bharat (self-reliant India) program. BS. What happened to Make in India? Sadly, Bharat could not become Atmanirbhar on Make in India, so Production Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme was launched in 2020, "With an impressive outlay of Rs 1.97 trillion (over US $24 billion)" to provide a leg-up to "14 critical sectors" "to enhance the country's manufacturing prowess". static.pib.gov.in. How successful have these experiments been? "The decade ending 2023-24 shows an interesting trend of a distinct decline in the contribution of manufacturing in India's overall story of economic growth." "In terms of gross value added (GVA), which denotes output, its share has come down from 16.5% in 2013-14 to 14.3% in 2023-24," wrote Madan Sabnavis. Mr Narendra Modi won his first term as prime minister in 2014. wikipedia. Steadily downhill since then. Indeed, India's trade data show that the country's "share in global merchandise exports continues to remain below what it was at the time of Independence, nearly 80 years ago." The Print. "Above all, firms don't know if domestic consumers will be able to buy what they make." "A recent survey of 16,000 consumers by New Delhi-based LocalCircles showed that one in four of them expects their earnings to drop by 25% or more in 2025," wrote Andy Mukherjee. "The huge increase in household debt is alarming" and "the total household debt in India during 2010-11 was 8% of GDP and has now edged up to 37%," said economist Pinaki Chakarborty. Trump's tariffs are a gun held to India's head. "It is just what was needed to wake up India's self-congratulatory establishment from its headline managing fantasies," wrote Shekhar Gupta. Ms Sitharaman has been reducing tariffs since 2023. Please tell us why?

Billionaires and 103.1% GDP.

"There are various headlines coming in everyday from the Trump administration," and "There is chatter of a possibility of stagflation-like situation brewing in the US." "The Rupee has strengthened, following the dollar theme. From a low of 87.95 we are down to sub 86 levels." "Only if we see a big risk off move globally, we may see all time lows of 87.95 get threatened again," wrote Abhishek Goenka. The rupee is trading at just over 85.60 to one dollar this morning. xe.com. "India's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has doubled in the last ten years," and according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) "has seen 103.1% growth in GDP at current prices or nominal GDP." TOI. "Prime Minister Narendra Modi...said the World Bank has expressed confidence that India will continue to be the world's fastest growing economy in the coming years." ET. US President Donald Trump has promised reciprocal tariffs on India from 2 April (India Today), but policymakers here seem confident about avoiding any negative effects. That is because there is "A deep pessimism that Indian manufacturing will never be productive and efficient enough to compete on its own terms," and "may never be able to produce things more cheaply or with consistently higher quality than its peers," wrote Mihir Sharma. So, the hope is that Trump's tariffs will act "as an equalizer for its producers when compared to the rest of the emerging world." "According to the IMF, in 2024, India ranked 142nd out of approximately 190 countries, with a nominal per capita GDP of $2,700." And yet, "With 200 billionaires in 2024, according to Forbes magazine, India ranks third globally in its billionaire count." However, more than 50% of billionaires in India are from established business families and have inherited their wealth, not self made, wrote Arjun Jayadev & Advait Moharir. The greatest aspiration for 'Aspirational Young India' is to get a "government job, a coveted position of stability and security." "For a cohort not yet 30, an alarmingly large number reported fatigue, sleep issues, vitamin deficiencies, anxiety and mental health concerns, difficult menstrual health and debilitating hormonal fluctuations," wrote Mathangi Krishnamurthy & Rama Bijapurkar. However, they blamed their own lack of exercise or failure to stay healthy, showing a lack of faith or hope in the system. "India's latest trade data,..reinforces that the country's share in global merchandise exports continues to remain below what it was at the time of Independence, nearly 80 years ago. Overall, India's share in global goods exports has remained below 2% since 1950." The Print. "India's parallel economy gets a bad name." But Shankar Sharma says, "I love it. It's fantastic." "It keeps us afloat. It's how India weathers most global economic crises better than others - because the parallel economy does not fall as much as the real economy." BT. It also means that our vaunted moniker of the "fastest growing economy" is essentially based on 'jugaad', a 'quick fix' or 'hack' (blogs.lse) forced by a lack of money and resources. Doubled GDP and 200 billionaires resting on the jugaad of hundreds of millions in the parallel economy. No wonder they are not worried about Trump's tariffs. Even Trump can't tax nothing. Can he? 

Sahyog or Grok.

"A prominent Indian comedian is standing by his right to make jokes after an angry mob attacked a comedy club where he had made an onstage jibe at a right-wing politician." "In the video, Kamra does not explicitly name the politician but, in a song, refers to a 'goddar', or 'traitor' - taken to be a reference to Shinde's leadership of a rebellion in 2022 that cause the state's previous government to collapse." CNN. "Mumbai's Habitat studio, a popular venue for stand-up comedy shows, has decided to shut down after Shiv Sena workers vandalised the premises...to protest comic Kunal Kamra's jokes targeting party leader and Maharashtra's Deputy Chief Minister Eknath Shinde." ET. In an egregious and brutal misuse of power, "Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) workers resumed the demolition work of an illegal structure at  Mumbai's Habitat studio." "The civic body's action came after state transport minister Pratap Sarnaik reached out to BMC commissioner Bhushan Gagrani to demolish the studio, calling it illegal." HT. Highly mystifying. How did the transport minister suddenly conclude the structure was illegal, on what basis, and why was it demolished without proof or a court order? "India's IT ministry has unlawfully expanded censorship powers to allow the easier removal of online content and empowered 'countless' government officials to execute such orders, Elon Musk's X has alleged in a new lawsuit against new Delhi." "X later complied following public criticism by officials, but its legal challenge to the decision is continuing in Indian courts." Reuters. "Microblogging platform X's petition in the Karnataka High Court seeks an order restraining the respondents, including various government departments, from 'coercive or prejudicial action' against X Corp, its representatives and employees pertaining to content under any law other than Section 69A of the IT Act, read with procedure mandated by guidelines for blocking online information." "The petition labels the Sahyog portal set up by the Union govt as 'nothing but a censorship' tool." TOI. 'Sahyog' means 'collaboration'. Today's dictators "realize that in current conditions violence is not always necessary." "Instead...a skillful ruler can control them (citizens) by reshaping their beliefs about the world. In place of harsh repression, the new dictators manipulate information." carnegie.org. There is a' large population of "Bhakts", meaning 'disciples', with limited education, who worship Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and accept what they are told as absolute truth. That is why censorship, enforced by a mob of deranged thugs, is an absolute necessity. That is also why India has the proud record of the highest number of internet shutdowns in the world for six years running. India Today. Unfortunately, Musk has now released an AI chatbot named Grok which promises to speak the truth about Dear Leader. The Wire. Musk is a friend of President Donald Trump, at present, and "India and the US have begun bilateral trade negotiations (BBC) to try and avoid reciprocal tariffs on India. And Trump's term has just started. Maybe a long four years.    

A domino effect.

"India is planning to lay out a road map for duty cuts on certain American imports when a US trade team arrives for discussions next week," and "Some of the American imports that this early harvest deal could cover include motorbikes, four-wheelers, fossil fuels and some farm produce such as pulses." HT. That is being clever and hoping the Americans are fools. Very few people will afford a Harley Davidson with prices starting at Rs 239,000 (bikewale) when Hero Motocorp, TVS and Bajaj Auto hold nearly 58% of sales, with Honda sales at 25.5% (autopunditz). In the four-wheeler segment, four companies Maruti Suzuki, Mahindra, Hyundai and Tata Motors hold 80% of the market share. spinny.com. American car companies have left India. "Russia and India are friends and partners." "Russia never came to India as conquerors." The Embassy of the Russian Federation. In 1971, the then Soviet Union protected India from possible attacks by the US Seventh Fleet and the UK Navy. India Times. Also. India is buying Russian oil at a discount of $2.60 to $2.60 per barrel (Reuters), and should not give up this advantage. India is the largest importer of pulses in the world anyway, and imported a record 4.7 million tonnes in 2023-24. BS. India has been importing 17% of its requirement of pulses from Canada (HT) but relations with Canada have been strained in recent years. "China and India are likely to interfere in the Canadian general election on April 28, while Russia and Pakistan have the potential to do so the country's spy service said." Reuters. If we get a good deal from the Americans on pulses it will be to our advantage. But, what if the Americans demand more? " In February, India slashed customs duty on US bourbon whiskey to 100% from 150%. HT. Despite the cut, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt insisted on 13 March that "India's 150% tariff on American alcohol is unhelpful". TOI. "WTO data indicates the US trade-weighted average tariff stands at 2.2%, whilst India's is at 12%. The United States maintains a $45.6 billion trade deficit with India." India wants to reduce tariffs on 55% of US imports, valued at $23 billion, on which it levies 5% to 30% duties. TOI. "US President Donald Trump still intends for new reciprocal tariff rates to take effect on April 2, the White House said," (Reuters) although the latest indications are that certain sectors may be exempt from reciprocal tariffs (ET). The main problem for the government is that if it reduces taxes on American alcohol and cars, the EU and the UK will also demand similar reductions on their whiskey, wine and cars. And if they comply India will be compelled to reduce taxes on Indian drinks and that is the real concern for the government because as per the International Spirits & Wines Association of India (ISWAI), taxes constitute 67%-80% of product prices (BS). Cutting taxes on Indian alcohol will seriously dent revenue collection. A desperate government is demanding $601 million in back taxes from Samsung and its executives and a record $1.4 billion from Volkswagen. ET. Naturally, Volkswagen as sought relief in court. In response, "India's government has told a court in Mumbai that agreeing to Volkswagen's demand to quash $1.4 billion tax bill would have 'catastrophic consequences'." Reuters. It's not just cutting tariffs to please Trump but the domino effect of such action that is terrifying. Could be catastrophic. The government's description.

Starmer wants to fight.

On 15 March, "Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has said military planning to protect a potential Ukraine ceasefire is moving to an 'operational phase' after a virtual meeting with 29 other world leaders." In addition to the UK, the meeting included NATO, the European Union, Canada, Australia and new Zealand. BBC. A bunch of senile white nations trying to stay relevant, and sell a few weapons, by prolonging the unnecessary destruction of Ukraine. On 20 March, "The UK is hosting a closed meeting...of senior military leaders from the 'coalition of the willing', as they draw up plans for a proposed peacekeeping force for Ukraine." BBC. "Russian President Vladimir Putin would breach a peace deal with Ukraine if it is not defended, Starmer has said, after attending a meeting of senior military leaders in London." BBC. No, he absolutely will not. As a former KGB foreign intelligence officer for 16 years (wikipedia), Putin is well aware of the costs of war whereas Starmer is a lawyer by trade and may want to don the mantle of that mass murderer Sir Winston Churchill (wikipedia) by instigating further fighting with Russia, no matter what the human cost. We Indians have suffered the inhuman depredations from the British. Research by Dylan Sullivan and Jason Hickel has revealed an excess of 60 million to 165 million excess deaths in India in just 40 years from 1880 to 1920. "The number even surpasses the deaths from both the World Wars, including Nazi Holocaust." ET. Also, as estimated by economic historian Utsa Patnaik, Britain looted $45 trillion from India from 1765 to 1938. ET. Thankfully, "Sir Keir Starmer's plan for an international force to support a ceasefire in Ukraine has been dismissed as 'a posture and a pose' by Donald Trump's special envoy. Steve Witkoff said the idea was based on a 'simplistic notion' of the UK prime minister and other European leaders thinking 'we have all got to be like Winston Churchill'." BBC. Could not have put it better. On 23 October, "Donald Trump's campaign has accused British Prime Minister Keir Starmer's Labour Party of 'blatant foreign interference' in the US presidential election after some volunteers traveled to help campaign for Vice President Kamala Harris." Reuters. Starmer should rid himself of delusions of grandeur and concentrate on Britain which is rapidly going downhill. "Britain's economic output contracted unexpectedly by 0.1% in January, pulled down by a sharp drop in manufacturing output compared with December." ET. Calling it a "reform", Starmer has slashed Personal Independence Payment (PIP) for disabled people to save 5 billion pounds by 2029-30. independent.co.uk. Last year, he stopped winter fuel payments for millions of old people (BBC) while personally accepting tens of thousands of pounds in gifts for himself and his family (independent). If people can't buy, companies will manufacture less. Logical. His hero Churchill may have been naked only in front of President Roosevelt (International Churchill Society), but, in these days of the internet, Starmer is naked in front of the whole world. Shame on him.     

Slightly happier.

"India ranked 118th in the World Happiness Report 2025,..up from 126th position in the previous year," but way below China at 68th and even below The State of Palestine at 108th and Pakistan at 109th. DH. It means that we are slightly happier within our misery. Vice President Jagdeep Dhankar remarked, "There is  another new disease among children - that of going abroad." Around 1.3 million students will be studying abroad in 2024 at a cost of $6 billion which could have been used to improve infrastructure in education within India, he said. HT. Children are being forced to go abroad because, "Union Budget 2025-26 allocated Rs 1.28 trillion to the education sector," which is 4.6% of GDP and well below 6% promised in the National Education Policy (NEP) 2020. "Over the past decade, India's education spending has hovered between 3% and 4% of GDP." BS. The NEP imposes learning three languages on children, including mother tongue, the official language of the Union, which implies Hindi, and a modern Indian or European language, mostly likely to be English. Tamil Nadu has always been fiercely against the imposition of Hindi. ET. An attempt at politically brain washing our children to erase the unique linguistic and cultural diversity in India. At present around 74% of Indians speak only one language, around 19% are bilingual and 7.1% are multilingual. Hindi is the second language among 44.1% of bilingual people while English is the second language among 26%. In southern states of India, especially in Tamil Nadu, a small minority speaks Hindi, wrote Abhishek Jha. After all that, education does not guarantee a future for our young. "The jobless rate for graduates was 29.1%, almost nine times higher than the 3.4% for those who can't read or write." For those with secondary education the rate was 18.4%, according to an ILO report. BS. Our infrastructure is poor, corruption is endemic, the bureaucracy is obstructive and private education extremely expensive. Advanced economies "offer well-established systems for intellectual property protection, research funding, and career advancement in emerging fields," in addition to little interference from bureaucrats and good salaries, wrote Srinath Sridharan. "As I have estimated, India's GDP can grow in dollar terms at 12% per annum. As professional salaries typically grow 25% more than average GDP growth," and, whereas in the US salaries can grow at 6.25% annually, in 40 years time an Indian professional will earn more than one in the US, according to Krishnamurthy Subarmanian, Executive Director at IMF. Even an ignorant Indian will laugh at this. The reality of India was recorded by 40 students in government-run schools in Tamil Nadu who photographed their parents at work. "From quarry workers to weavers, welders to tailors, the pictures highlight the diverse, backbreaking work undertaken by the estimated 400 million laborers in India." BBC. With so little spending on education where will the government find and pay teachers to teach three languages to 74% of children. Don't waste money on brain washing. Educate.

Major policies.

"India is planning to lay out a road map for duty cuts on certain American imports when a US trade team arrives for discussions next week,..outlining a plan by which New Delhi hopes to avert retaliatory tariffs that US President Donald Trump has said will be imposed on April 2." HT. However, "The World Trade Organisation (WTO) trade framework prohibits any member from reducing tariffs for one country without extending the same benefit to other members, except through a free trade agreement (FTA)." HT. But India cannot afford to reduce duties on Chinese imports because our industries will be decimated. "China has mastered this tactic of weaponizing dumping to decimate domestic markets of other countries." "In 2024 alone, 79% of anti-dumping investigations (ADDs) filed by India's Director General of Trade Remedies (DGTR) were filed against Chinese producers." ET. In 2019, Union Finance Minister proposed hike in customs duty on 75 imported items to give a push to Make in India program of the Narendra Modi government." India Today. The government also started a Production Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme to pay companies to increase their manufacturing in India. wikipedia. But, India's Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran "called on the private sector that's been ramping up investments in overseas markets despite global uncertainties to also pour money into...India." Mint. All tactics failed. So now, the government "has decided to let lapse a $23 billion program to incentivize domestic manufacturing," and "The (PLI) scheme will not be expanded beyond the 14 pilot sectors." Reuters. "A decade after its launch, the government's Sovereign Gold Bond scheme (SGBs) has ended up" "as an unforeseen fiscal burden on the exchequer, eventually forcing the government to strike it dead." TNIE. The bonds were started in 2015 to take advantage of Indians' love of gold and borrow money cheaply at 2.5% interest. But gold prices have gone through the roof leaving the government with a bill of $13 billion or Rs 1.2 trillion. The bonds did not stop Indians from buying gold at an annual average of $37 billion in the last ten years, so the government increased customs duty on gold to 15% in 2022. That increased the domestic price of gold and the payout. The government panicked and slashed duties to 6% last year, wrote Andy Mukherjee. On 8 November 2016, Mr Modi announced the demonetisation of Rs 1000 and Rs 500 banknotes to eliminate cash hoarding to avoid paying taxes. wikipedia. But, "As per RBI data, it's safe to say that demonetisation has been a failure of epic proportions," wrote Vivek Kaul. The goods and services tax (GST) was introduced as a "good and simple" tax by Mr Modi in 2017. NDTV. Unfortunately, three fourths of goods and services are taxed at 18%, though the average rate has dropped to 11.6% at the end of 2023-24. The Hindu. Also unfortunately "US President Donald Trump says value-added taxes carry a lot of blame for America's near trillion dollar trade deficit with the rest of the world." Reuters. Which makes GST not so good, or simple. All major economic policies of this government have failed. That's some record. Celebrate.

Days for Mother Earth.

"The International Mother Earth Day is celebrated annually on April 22nd (tomorrow) to 'raise global public awareness to the challenges to the well-being of the planet and all the life it supports'." UN. Which means reducing the use of plastics and fossil fuels, stopping the destruction of forests by mining and agriculture, stopping poaching of wild animals and protecting natural ponds and lakes. In India around one billion people "lack money to spend on any discretionary goods or services," and "The country's consuming class, effectively the potential market for start-ups or business owners, is only about as big as Mexico, about 130-140 million people, according to the report from Bloom Ventures." BBC. That is an enormous vote bank  (wikipedia) for politicians to ignore. If all these people are to buy cars, fridges and air-conditioners, India's use of fossil fuels will soar. India's "Coal-powered electricity output was 115 terawatt hours (TWh) in January 2024, a new high," while "Emissions from coal generation in January hit 104.5 million metric tons of carbon dioxide (CO2). Reuters. Although "The share of coal in India's total power generation capacity dipped below 50% in the first quarter of 2024," and "renewable energy accounted for 71.5% of the record 13,669 megawatts (MW) power generation capacity added by India." ET. "Over 50% of 3-wheelers, about 5% of two-wheelers and 2% of cars bought in 2024 are EVs (electric vehicles)." And "India is on track to become the largest EV market by 2030." IBEF. "In 2023, EV sales neared 14 million, meaning that 1 in 5 cars sold was electric. Of these, 60% were in China, 25% in Europe and 10% in the US, with three markets adding up to 95% of the total." India should "establish a more realistic policy of 50% EV adoption by 2040," wrote Narayan Ramachandran. Vaclav Smil writes that "it is worth remembering that electricity accounts for only 18% of global energy consumption. Indeed, most energy produced is consumed in the production of what Smil calls the four pillars of civilisation: cement, steel, plastics and ammonia," wrote Vivek Kaul. "India should not repeat the mistakes made by Western countries," because, in the UK, "the inflation-adjusted electricity price in the country, weighted across households and Industry, has tripled from 2003 to 2023. By comparison, the US electricity price has remained almost unchanged over the same period," wrote Bjorn Lomborg. Delhi is full of VIPs and VVIPs who refuse to share our roads with us causing long traffic jams as police block roads to allow them free passage. In one such jam, "An estimated 46,000 liters of fuel was consumed while vehicles idled." ET. India's population of 1.46 billion (worldometer) need land for living and to grow food. "A 300-megawatt solar project needs over 900 acres," wrote Sayantan Bera. The only way to save Mother Earth is to drastically reduce the number of human beings. Otherwise, Mother Earth has only days to live on her day. And so have we.

All about returns.

"The Indian Economy is 'somewhat insulated' from the impact of high US tariffs." "Fitch sees the Indian economy growing at 6.5% in the upcoming financial year, with a slight slowdown in the subsequent year." TOI. "Strong macroeconomic fundamentals are likely to help India sustain its growth momentum even as the global economy faces uncertainty amid the escalating trade tensions, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) says." Reuters. "The finance ministry informed the Parliament that a shift in household deposits from banks to market-linked financial products in search of higher returns may expose the households to significant market risks and that they may face financial losses during market corrections." ET. Foreign investors "have taken out over $15 billion so far this year. Indian stock markets have lost Rs 1.3 trillion in value since last September." It would have been worse except that "domestic investors have been on the other side of the trade. They have been buying what foreigners sell." Because real estate is too expensive and "Bank deposits, thanks to an inefficient banking sector, often give you negative real rates on your money," wrote Mihir Sharma. The RBI is the regulator of banks and "Though originally privately owned, since nationalisation in 1949, the Reserve Bank is fully owned by the Government of India." rbi.org.in. Which means "the law empowers the government to give such directions to RBI 'as it may, after consultation with the Governor of the Bank, consider necessary in the public interest'. New Delhi may direct the central bank on questions of policy, management or its operations, without such directions being published," wrote Bhargavi Z Shah. Yesterday, the US Federal Reserve kept its Funds rate on hold at 4.25%-4.5% because President Donald Trump's tariffs may cause temporary inflation, even though tariffs may have a slowing effect on the economy. CNBC. The Fed kept its policy rate unchanged in its January meeting as well. CNBC. Meanwhile, the RBI cut its repo rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 6.25% in its February meeting  (BBC) and is expected to cut by another 25 bps in its meeting in April (BS). As the gap in returns on fixed income instruments in the US and Indian markets narrows and, the rupee has depreciated from 83.487 against one dollar on 21 September 2024 to 86.339 yesterday (exchangerates.org.uk), foreign funds would be inclined to shift funds from Indian markets to safer US instruments. In Budget 2025,the government wants the RBI to transfer Rs 2.56 trillion as dividend. TOI. All this is "against a backdrop of structural weakness." "Now things are falling apart, and incompetence and the absence of a coherent strategy have started to hurt." The RBI's analysis is baffling. "Jargon is substituted for analysis," and "the RBI has lost the limited autonomy it had in the previous decade," wrote Rathin Roy. If people are shifting from relatively safer bank deposits to risky investments in financial markets, it is only to protect themselves from negative returns and erosion of value because of uncontrolled inflation (RI). The government through the finance ministry and the controlled RBI are responsible. They can change only if they confess responsibility. Will they? We have no hope.  

Unexpected benefits.

"India's exports fell for the fourth consecutive month in February, dropping to USD 36.91 billion." "This marks a decline from USD 41.41 billion in the same month last year." However, imports dropped "to USD 50.96 billion from USD 60.92 billion in February 2024. The trade deficit for February 2025 stood at USD 14.05 billion, the lowest since August 2021." The fall in imports was because of a fall in the imports of crude oil and precious metals as well as a fall in the price of oil. TOI. This was before President Donald Trump imposed 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminium imports starting 12 March. TIE. Trump's reciprocal tariffs will start on 2 April and the rates will be based on "a calculation incorporating tariff and non-tariff barriers its exports face in other countries." HT. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said, "You look at India, 150% tariff on American alcohol. Do you think that's helping Kentucky bourbon be exported to India? I don't think so. 100% tariff on agricultural products from India." ET. Last month, "Union Commerce and Industries Minister Piyush Goyal...asked the industry players to be bold and focus their energies on turning competitive, rather than depending on the government for support." ET. "Tariff does not protect any country and India needs to cut tariffs for its own good, irrespective of who tells India to do so, NITI Aayog CEO BVR Subrahmanyam  said." ET. Why this wisdom now? Why didn't anyone advise caution when in 2019, "India raised import tariffs on nearly 75 items including gold and automobile parts in its budget (Reuters)?" Clearly, sycophancy to Dear Leader for lucrative posts with enormous perks is more important than what is good for India. "In the past 10 years, Modi's economic strategy has relied heavily on a small team of national champions." "This preference for shielding oligarchs with hefty tariffs, favorable government contracts, as well as non-tariff barriers like stifling rules for foreign-backed commerce, has been pretty well known internationally." "Under Trump 2.0, India's so-called Billionaire Raj could grind to a halt," wrote Andy Mukherjee. Where Trump leads, the EU is sure to follow. "The European Union (EU) is pressing for lower tariffs on key exports, including whiskey, wine and cars, as part of its negotiations for a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with India." FE. If the government is forced to reduce tariffs on imports, it will have to reduce taxes on Indian products as well. As prices drop it will encourage private consumption which, at $2.07 trillion, "drives around 60% of GDP. Yet consumer spending is weak and has decoupled dramatically from the path of national output since the year ended March 2023, according to economists at state-owned Punjab National Bank." Reuters. That in turn will help Capacity Utilization of industries "which decreased to 74.70% in the fourth quarter of 2024 from 75.80% in the third quarter of 2024." Trading Economics. That, in turn, will create jobs. But if tariffs and taxes go down, what happens to revenue? "Gross GST collections grew 9.1% to about Rs 1.84 trillion in February. It grew 12.3% to Rs 1.96 trillion in January." ET. If revenue drops how to win elections by tossing freebies at voters? "Are we not creating a class of parasites?" asked the Supreme Court. TOI. Perhaps, the Court would tell us who the real parasites are. Pain may be coming. Great. 

Will pay, won't spend.

 "India's tax collections were up 16.15% year-on-year, reaching Rs 25.86 trillion as of March 16, as per the latest data released by the Central Board of Direct Taxes (CBDT)." ET. "Net direct tax collections from 1 April 2024 to 15 March 2024 stood at Rs 21.26 trillion, up 13.13% year-on-year, boosted by total advance tax collections of Rs 10.44 trillion, up 14.62%, official data said." "Out of the net direct collections corporate tax stood at Rs 9.69 trillion and personal income tax stood at Rs 11.01 trillion." ET. "India's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth for FY26 is projected to be 6.3-6.8%, according to the Economic Survey 2024-25." ET. "For the full financial year 2024-25, the National Statistics Office (NSO) has pegged the GDP growth at 6.5%. To achieve this, the growth in the fourth quarter should be 7.6%." Also, "The data for FY 2023-24 has been revised upward to 9.2% from 8.2%." DH. According to the Economic Survey, "Corporate profitability soared to a 15-year peak in FY24, fueled by robust growth in financials, energy and automobiles." "However, while profits surged, wages lagged. A striking disparity has emerged in corporate India: profits climbed 22.3% in FY24, but employment grew by a mere 1.5%." ET. So, companies are making huge profits, employing fewer people and paying lower wages, but net income tax collections from individuals was Rs 2 trillion more than from companies. There can be only one reason for this, and that is the rate of taxes on individuals is far higher than that on companies. Not surprising that, "Several lifestyle retail chains and restaurants are shutting stores on the high street and in smaller towns as overall consumption has slowed over the past year." ET. Not just direct taxes, the government tries every ploy to squeeze money out of citizens. "The median global tax rate for carbonated (non-alcoholic) beverages hovers around 18.4%. India's total tax rate for carbonated beverages of 40% is not only significantly higher, but also places the country in a minority group." With a total of 351.9 million tonnes, India is the world's second largest grower of fruits and vegetables. "High taxes, however, have prevented India from leveraging this advantage to capture a share of the growing global demand," wrote Aruna Sharma. The annual Budget 2025 has increased income slabs at which taxes will apply, with a rebate of Rs 60,000, so that those earning up to Rs 1.2 million will not have to pay any income tax in FY 2025-26. cleartax.in. This is to put more money in the hands of consumers and increase demand. Either the government is being bold in raising the threshold for paying taxes by 1.7 times, "Or it's a tacit admission that consumption taxes are so high that even people making five times the average adult wage are struggling to fork out income taxes," wrote Andy Mukherjee. "India has the highest GST of 28%. Actual tax rates are even higher if we include cess and other charges. However, India's tax revenue as a percentage of GDP is 18%. In contrast, China raises 20% of GDP in tax revenues, while having the highest GST slab of 13%," wrote Ghanshyam Sharma. People cannot avoid income tax. But they can and are refusing to spend. Unless they see reason.  

All for the better.

In the US, "A preliminary March survey of consumers showed sentiment sank by more than projected, while long-term inflation expectations jumped as the Trump administration pushes forward with higher duties on foreign goods," "while the UK economy shrank unexpectedly at the start of the year on weaker manufacturing and construction," and China sank into deflation in February. ET. In Germany, "The agreement by the parties hoping to form its government includes a 500 billion euro ($545 billion) special fund for infrastructure and plans to unshackle defence investment from the country's debt rules. Reuters. China's inflation rate fell to -0.70% in February. ycharts.com. One store, selling clothes, snacks and household products, on the outskirts of Beijing is holding flash sales four times a day, at which the price of an item is lowered progressively until someone buys it. "Chinese consumers grappling with uncertainty about jobs and income are increasingly turning to discount stores," but "analysts say the success of such businesses is stoking deflationary pressures." Reuters. "Deflation is a decrease in the general price level of goods and services." cfi. Which means that the value of currency goes up. When prices fall consumers defer their purchases hoping for even lower prices, which sets up a spiral of falling prices and causes a recession. Starting in 1990, Japan experienced the lost decades during which, "over the period of 1995 to 2023, the country's nominal GDP fell from $5.33 trillion to $4.21 trillion, real wages fell around 11%, while the country experienced a stagnant or decreasing price level." wikipedia. "China announced a 'Special Action Plan to Boost Consumption' yesterday in a bid to prop up domestic consumption in the world's second largest economy." "The plan calls for actions to increase incomes of both urban and rural residents, as well as farmers." CNBC. In January, "China added more home appliances to the list of products that can be used in its consumer trade-in scheme." "China last year apportioned about 150 billion yuan from the 1 trillion yuan special Treasury bonds issuance to subsidise replacements of old appliances, cars, bicycles and other goods." "The campaign resulted in 920 billion yuan in auto sales and 240 billion yuan of home appliances sales in 2024." Reuters. "China's exports grew slower than expected in the first two months of the year, official data showed.., as a deepening trade war with the United States piles on economic malaise." ET. "Beijing will 'resolutely counter' US pressure on tariffs and the fentanyl issue, China's foreign minister said.., adding that major powers 'should not bully the weak', in a veiled swipe at the Trump administration's foreign policy." Reuters. That is hilarious, indeed. China has been pursuing a 'cabbage strategy' or 'salami slicing' against all its neighbors for decades (Jagran Josh) and dares to preach to the US. The old system was making countries like China ever more strong. Perhaps, President Trump can stop that. We hope.    

It's happened before.

"When Warren Buffett sold most of his Apple shares and hoarded cash, few knew what to make of it." "Then the stock market tumbled." "Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway nearly doubled its cash, Treasury bills and liquid assets in 2024, reaching a record $334 billion." By the end of the year, it had sold a net $134 billion in stocks, barely spending $3 billion on buybacks." ET. Market analyst Marc Faber "advised retail investors, including those in India, to exit the markets if there is a temporary rebound." "Faber suggested that holding gold, silver and platinum could be a safer alternative for Indian investors, as he expects the Indian rupee to decline against these commodities. The value of returns could be superficially increased through inflation, but the real value will continue to slip, he cautioned." FE. "As India's longest equity slump in nearly three decades wipes out roughly $1 trillion in market capitalization," "That spells more trouble for consumer spending and the broader economy, which is expected to grow at its slowest pace in four years in the current financial year due to weak urban demand." Reuters. "The Q3 (October-December) results season offered little cheer," and "The most worrying trend is that demand slowdown has spread from export oriented sectors to domestic consumption." "Consumers are downtrading to smaller packs in the premium segments. Despite it being a festive quarter, retail and fast-food chains saw muted growth," wrote Abhishek Mukherjee. Foreign investors "have taken out over $15 billion so far this year." "A country that has about 320 million households now has some 110 million unique investors. It's those investors' savings that are on the other side of the trade," wrote Mihir Sharma. Returns on savings in banks are less than inflation, real estate is too expensive, "And for the past year, regulators have banned funds that invest in markets outside the country from adding new subscribers. Indians have been locked into the stock market." Markets are undergoing regression to the mean especially in "specific sectors around which strong narratives have been built," wrote Vivek Kaul. Retail investors bought into the narrative. "This is a classic case of stock market insiders setting up retail investors for a fall, and making money in the process." "Also, stung by their losses, such investors may be put off from investing in stocks for years to come." "That's another loss waiting to play out." A Systematic Investment Plan (SIP) allows individuals to invest a fixed amount regularly in mutual funds (MFs). bajajfinserve.in. This helps to average out the fluctuations in markets. "In 2016-17, the total money invested in MFs through SIPs was Rs 439.21 billion. This jumped to Rs 671.90 billion, Rs 926.93 billion and over Rs 1 trillion in 2017-18,2018-19 and 2019-20 respectively." In January, however, "for every 100 new SIPs opened, 109 SIPs completed their tenure or were discontinued." "This implies that many investors are stopping their SIP flows into equity MFs after having bought stocks at peak prices," wrote Kaul. Proving that the fall in the markets is here to stay, "Promoters of Nifty50 firms are offloading their stakes at an unprecedented pace, with ownership sinking to a 22-year low of 41.1% in the December quarter, according to NSE data." msn.com. Insiders and foreigners are getting out. Leaving ordinary Indians holding duds. A recurring old story.

Twenty five million kilos of gold.

"Gold will remain relevant for investors as a portfolio diversification mechanism with a likely ascending importance as an asset class in the coming years, CEA V Anantha Nageswaran said." "Since 2002, the value of the precious metal is up 10 times when it was about $250-290/ounce." "India is a net importer of gold." TOI. "The World Gold Council's 2020-21 study indicated that Indian households own between 21,000 and 23,000 tons of gold. By 2023, this figure had increased to approximately 24,000 and 25,000 tons, or 25 million kilograms of gold." "This gold reserve also plays a role in supporting India's economy, covering 40% of the nation's GDP." TOI. Indians buy gold to hedge against inflation, the falling value of the rupee and, for most of the time, a negative real interest rate which is less than the rate of inflation (BI). The rate of annual inflation in India has been at around 6% on average (RI), while the interest rate was brought down from 6% in April 2019 to 4% by May 2020 and held there till May 2022, from where it was increased gradually to 6.50% in February 2023 (bankbazaar.com). In February 2025, "The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) reduced its repo rate from 6.5% to 6.25%, in line with the expectations of many economists." BBC. "India's retail inflation eased to a seven-month low of 3.61% in February, down from 4.31% in January, according to government data. ET. So, "The RBI will likely slash the benchmark repo rate by a total of 75 basis points (bps) in 2025, with upcoming 25 bps reductions each in April, June and October policy meetings." They expect consumer price (CPI) inflation to average 4.7% in FY25 and between 4% and 4.2% in FY26. Mint. Are they being optimistic or deliberately trying to fool us? "Data from India's Meteorological Department shows that last month was India's hottest February in 125 years." Heat is threatening this year's mango crop and, "Scorching heat is also threatening winter staples such as wheat, chickpea and rapeseed." BBC. Scorching heat could lead to scorching inflation. Meanwhile, the rupee has fallen from 59.44 to one US dollar on 15 May 2014 to 86.61 for one dollar on 20 February 2025. Thomas Cook. One US dollar buys Rs 86.95 this morning. xe.com. "India's middle class is facing economic pressure as incomes have remained stagnant for the past decade," so that, "individuals earning between Rs 500,000 and Rs 10 million per year have seen no real income growth in 10 years. Meanwhile, inflation has eroded purchasing power by nearly 50%," said Saurabh Mukherjea. So why is the RBI so casual about controlling inflation? Because high inflation helps the government by reducing the value of its debt and by increasing tax collections, as GST is a percentage of the retail price. Economics Help. And, the RBI is controlled by the government with no real independence, wrote Bhargavi Zaveri Shah. It may seem that Indians buy gold to hedge against economic uncertainties but in reality they buy gold as protection against the government. The real predator.

Profit from confusion.

"Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said...that India is aiming for a 'good' trade agreement with the United States," and "highlighted the necessity for India to navigate the escalating global tariff conflicts 'smartly' to protect against potential dumping of goods from nations facing increased US tariffs." ET. She is probably hinting at China when she talks about fear of dumping. "In 2023, Chinese exports to the US aggregated $500 billion." If Trump levies 60% tariff on Chinese goods, "Chinese exports to the US are expected to fall by 85%. This market will find its way into other markets including India." Already dumping of PVC by Chinese companies has hit Reliance, Chemplast Sanmar and Finolex Industries while dumping of steel has affected Tata Steel and JSW Steel. With a revenue of $100 billion (2024), Reliance Industries is India's largest public company and Mukesh Ambani owns a majority of its shares. wikipedia. "American trade negotiators are pushing for a level playing field for US-based e-commerce companies such as Amazon and Walmart-owned Flipkart with Indian firms such as Reliance," but India is resisting US demands. Mint. "Having gone all out to put a lock on India's 1.4 billion consumers, Mukesh Ambani can't afford to have Donald Trump smash open the latch with a sledgehammer." So, "Elon Musk entering the market with Starlink Inc, or Washington dictating tweaks to domestic policies that have kept Amazon.com Inc and Walmart Inc at a disadvantage on Ambani's home turf, could be destabilizing," wrote Andy Mukherjee. "Nearly half of all generic medicines taken in the US come from India alone." "The pharmaceutical sector is India's largest industrial export, according to GTRI, a trade research agency. India exports some $12.7bn worth of drugs to the US annually, paying virtually no tax. US drugs coming into India, however, pay 10.91% duties." BBC. Just when we are negotiating a trade deal with the US, "Generic drugs made in India are related to 54% more severe adverse events, including hospitalization, disability and death, compared to the equivalent generic drugs made in the US, a new study has found." ET. India is not without friends, however. "The president of the European Commission and all her fellow commissioners turned up in India last week," which "represented a major shift from three years ago, when India failed, in European eyes, to offer a strident enough condemnation of the Russian invasion of Ukraine." Europe also needs to re-arm and "India companies can scale up basic manufacturing - of artillery shells, for example - very quickly," wrote Mihir Sharma. India may also gain as the US looks to reduce imports from China. Trump has already imposed a cumulative 20% tariff on Chinese imports and is planning to target backdoor entry of Chinese goods through third countries. "For low-end manufacturing, where it doesn't make sense for the US to compete, Trump may favor importing goods from its allies with less exposure to China." Reuters. Donald Trump has thrown global trade into complete confusion. Can India fish in troubled waters and strike gold? We need to be clever and nimble. Can we?

Zero for zero better.

"A sell-off in the US stock market gathered steam" after "President Donald Trump ducked questions about whether the US economy was facing a recession or price rises as a result of tariff moves, while warning instead of a 'period of transition'." BBC. "US job growth steadied last month while unemployment rose" "with more people permanently out of work, fewer workers on federal government payrolls and a jump in those working part-time for economic reasons." The European Central Bank cut its deposit rate by 25 basis points to 2.5%. ET. On 11 February, "President Trump is reinstating the full 25% tariff on steel imports and increasing tariffs on aluminium imports to 25%." The White House. In retaliation, "Ontario's Premier Doug Ford announced that effective Monday (10 March), the province is imposing a 25% surcharge on electricity exports to the United States in response to Donald Trump's trade war. The measure affects 1.5 million American consumers in Minnesota, New York and Michigan." Mint. In return, Trump doubled tariffs on Canada to 50% and Mr Ford wisely retreated from his threat, forthwith. And, Trump went back down to 25%. BBC. "Just hours after Trump's 25% duties on all US steel and aluminium imports took effect, Trump said he would impose additional penalties if the EU follows through with its plan to enact counter tariffs on some US goods next month." "Canada, the biggest foreign supplier of steel and aluminium to the US, announced retaliatory tariffs on those metals along with computers, sports equipment and other products worth $20 billion in total." Reuters. In 2023, Canada's exports to the US amounted to $410 billion and imports from the US to $269 billion, giving a positive trade balance of $141 billion. The next was China with exports of $31.1 billion and imports of $59.9 billion, giving a negative trade balance of $28.8 billion. OEC. No comparison. There is a very old saying about not biting the hand that feeds you (VOA). The Liberal Party in Canada is showing itself to be tough against Trump to try and win the general election to be held this year because opinion polls have been showing a drubbing for the Liberals (wikipedia). But, is it moral to play Russian Roulette (wikipedia) with the economy just to win an election? As for Europe, "Trump might want to consider the continent's economic malaise: the German economy has been experiencing a prolonged downturn, while Italy and France are struggling with serious public-debt problem. Maybe then Trump will grasp that his tariff actions, which constitute a significant part of his 'America First' agenda, risks triggering a Europe-wide recession and another eurozone debt crisis," wrote Desmond Lachman. Industries in India support a 'zero-for-zero' policy "where two countries can identify specific product categories and eliminate the levies on them, instead of imposing a blanket range of tariffs or inking a broader trade deal." NDTV. Since Trump's main target is China, he could accept India's proposal. Better to protect what we have, than to engage in tit for tat. At least we can be guru to Canada and the EU. If not to the whole Vishwa (world).      

'US-returned' solution.

The Annual Status of Education Report (ASER) 2024, released on 24 January, showed that "the arithmetic capabilities of the elementary age group, comprising of children aged 6 to 14 years, have improved substantially since 2018." Class 3 students who can do one numerical subtraction jumped from 28.2% in 2018 (pre-Covid) and 25.9% in 2022 (post-Covid) to 33.7% in 2024. HT. Enrollment of children in the 6-14 age group dropped from 72.9% in 2022 to 66.8% in 2024 in government schools, even as the overall rate of enrollment stayed at 98.1%, suggesting a shift towards private schools. TOI. Shows the commitment of parents toward children's education. "India has once again declined to participate in PISA or Programme for International Student Assessment conducted by the Organisation of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) every three years." It tests 15-year-old students in mathematics, reading and science. In 2009, India ranked 73rd, second last to Kazakhstan, and has opted out ever since. "Over 90 countries will participate in PISA 2025." The Wire. In February 2024, "BJP has emphasized Prime Minister Narendra Modi's commitment to position India as the 'Vishwa Guru' (teacher to the world) in the global order." ET. Surely, our children must learn to read and subtract before they can teach the world. Can't teach ignorance. Even students at college levels are ignorant of basics, wrote Prof Shobhit Mahajan. "The Covid-19  pandemic forced most education online. This was disastrous" because students stopped reading books and prefer to learn from short videos on YouTube which "they think gives them the essence of the topic." "We still don't get it," wrote Prof Dipankar Gupta. We want to emulate South Korea but we ignore the fact that "Korea spends 5% of its GDP on R&D, whereas India only 0.7%. Of this small sum, the Indian private sector contributes a niggardly 41% against Korea's 79%. Tellingly, Samsung invests 8-11% on R&D and Reliance a paltry 0.6%." "For the first time in Nov, services exports were provisionally estimated by the commerce ministry at $35.7 billion, higher than merchandise exports pf $32.1 billion. Software services were the biggest contributors, with 47% of the total." Pune Consultant Wizmatic estimated that "over 1,500 GCCs (Global Capability Centers) employ 3.2 million Indians (mostly engineers and scientists), generate revenues of $121 billion, and export $102 billion," wrote Swaminathan SA Aiyar. President Donald Trump wants to end birthright citizenship for children of foreigners. This could result in a reverse migration of skilled professionals back to India and persuade multinationals to start more GCCs or expand existing ones in India, thus creating wealth in India instead of for the US, wrote Adya Madhavan. How will that benefit India without increased R&D? Only create a new class of 'US-returned' aristocrats. And jealousy.