Friday, August 08, 2025
The escape valve is the key.
"US President Donald Trump has sharply escalated his trade offensive against India, slapping an extra 25% tariff on certain imports and pushing the total levy on those goods to 50%." "The tariffs are linked to India's burgeoning trade with Russia." And, "This conflict extends beyond oil. India's defense ties with Russia are critical, long-standing, with over 60% of its military equipment sourced from Moscow." ET. On the other hand, "Pakistan Army Chief Field Marshall Asim Munir is set to visit the US for the second time in two months," and it "comes after Trump's trade deal with Pakistan, under which he has offered Islamabad a preferred tariffs rate and plans to explore its oil reserves." NDTV. Why was India insulted as a "dead economy" and Pakistan is favored, when Pakistan is a moribund economy, kept going by 24 infusions of loans from the IMF (wikipedia)? Because, China is an implacable enemy of India, while China and Pakistan are "iron brothers", their friendship being "higher than mountains, deeper than the sea". CIIS. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has turned foreign policy into luxury tourism, with unending travel within and outside India (pmindia.gov.in) along with self glorification. "Perhaps, Modi's yearning for a larger-than-life image for himself and for India as Vishwa Guru, is the desire to get out of the shadow of the phenomenal success of India's first Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru." Bharat Bhushan. "To put it bluntly, Nehru's non-alignment sought investment and aid from both the US and USSR. Modi's non-alignment has accepted economic and political penalties from both the US and China," wrote Amitabh Dubey. "Everyone complains that India is not loyal to them." "This is as it should be: multi-alignment means India is not beholden to anybody, but will pursue its selfish interests first and foremost." "Thus, the splendid isolation is a back-handed compliment: the rest of the world is anticipating the rise of India as a superpower, and superpowers have no friends, only interests," wrote Rajeev Srinivasan. For Mr Modi, "A contentious ceasefire with archenemy Pakistan, renewed scrutiny over his age and a diplomatic chill with the United States despite much-publicised rapport with Trump have converged to test his leadership like never before. While he needs to deal with these headwinds, Modi also has to answer opposition charges of vote-rigging in the 2024 general election." Reuters. However, Mr Modi seems invincible with an army of Bhakts (devotees) ready to believe his every bombast. Except, possibly one weakness - US visas. "India has been a major recipient of US work visas, notably the H-1B program that powers its $250 billion IT services industry. These visas, along with the offshoring of business and software services, have enabled Indian firms to scale globally." Added to that, "New procedural hurdles are also emerging: enhanced social media vetting has prompted the halt of new student visa appointments, raising anxiety among Indian students planning to study in the US." ET. That was the one escape route for the middle class and their children. If this route gets blocked, or if their children are deported from the US, the middle class and the civil service, whose staunch support has overlooked Mr Modi's many failures, could sour on him. Perhaps, Mr Modi would be wise to step down at his next birthday on 17 September when he turns 75 (India Today). Before he is pushed out. Ignominiously.
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