Thursday, August 28, 2025

Indian women are ahead of the RBI.

"The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has recently taken some visible steps to advance the internationalisation of the rupee." "The RBI has given its nod to scheduled commercial banks to give extended rupee loans to the neighboring countries while simultaneously allowing trade invoicing in rupees." News 9. "Around 90% of intra-BRICS trade is already settled in non-dollar currencies, but a unified currency remains a medium- to long-term goal." However, "President Donald Trump threatened 100% tariffs on any BRICS country backing a rival reserve currency and demanded public assurances not to challenge the dollar's role." TOI. To get round US and EU sanctions, a system, "which Russia calls 'BRICS Bridge', is intended to be built within a year and would let countries conduct cross-border settlement using digital platforms run by their central banks. Controversially, it may borrow concepts from a different project called mBridge, part-run by a bastion of the Western-led order, the Swiss-based Bank of International Settlements (BIS)." Mint. So, can we get rid of the dollar? Not so fast. "As of December 2022, more than 58% of the global foreign exchange reserves were in dollars." Also, "data from the BIS tell us that close to half of the global trade is still invoiced in dollars. In the case of foreign exchange transactions, dollar is on one-side in 88% of the transactions." "Finally, as far as India is concerned, what should we prefer? A world in which the premier currency is American or a world in which it's Chinese. Now that is a no-brainer," wrote Vivek Kaul. Finfluencer Akshat Shrivastava warned that, "INR-based returns quietly erode over time due to currency depreciation." The Indian Rupee (INR) loses 3-4% against the US dollar every year. The rupee buying less than the dollar every year means that inflation in India is rising 3-4% more than in the US every year. "He cited that while the 20-year CAGR (compound annual growth rate) for the Nifty 50 stands at 12.59%, the return drops to 7-8% after adjusting for rupee depreciation." BT. The rupee has fallen from 3.30 to one dollar to 86.61 in February 2025. Thomas Cook. It would therefore make sense to hedge by adding 3% to the price of anything we buy with INR. Making the rupee truly international means allowing citizens to use it freely. "However Indian residents going abroad are allowed to take with them Indian currency not exceeding Rs 7,500." "Import of Indian currency is prohibited." Indian Embassy in Thailand. So, Indians cannot use the INR. Whereas, "As of December 31, 2024, there was $2,322.9 billion in circulation," and "As much as one-half of the value of the US currency is estimated to be circulating abroad." uscurrency.gov. Which means over $1 trillion or over Rs 87.5 trillion at today's exchange rate (xe.com) is held outside the US. Such severe currency control by the RBI limits investment options for Indians. As a result, "Indian women collectively hold a staggering 24,000 tons of gold, surpassing the reserves of the top five countries combined." TOI. Gold is an excellent hedge against inflation and currency depreciation, wrote Pramit Bhattacharya. Since the price of gold is set in London twice every day (wikipedia), Indian women have already made the rupee international. Partially, at least.The RBI is trying to unshackle and control at the same time. Waste of time.  

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