It began in 2018.

"Marriages are increasing noticeably in China this year," because "Couples can now register their marriage in places which, until recently, would have seemed unimaginable as a site of official paperwork: nightclubs, beach resorts, even music festivals where civil servants sit at temporary registration desks." Young Chinese may again be warming to marriage, "But specialists caution that the surge may be more about convenience and novelty than a real change in attitude about family life." MC. But, marriage yes, babies no. "China's population fell for a fourth consecutive year in 2025, dropping by 3.39 million to 1.405 billion, a faster decline than 2024, official data showed." ET. Its "birthrate fell to 5.63 per 1,000 people - a record low since the Communist Party took power in 1049 - while its death rate rose to 8.04, the highest since 1968." Fertility rate has fallen to 1, so the government has offered parents 3,600 yuan ($500) per each of their children under the age of three," and "a new 13% tax on contraceptives - including condoms, birth control pills and devices - has sparked concern about unwanted pregnancies and HIV rates." BBC. Sticks and a carrot. "China has given its top AI startup DeepSeek approval to buy Nvidia's H200 artificial intelligence chips," and "a senior US lawmaker had alleged that Nvidia had helped DeepSeek hone artificial intelligence models that were later used by the Chinese military." Reuters. "Engineers at Beihang University, a military-linked school, created a system in which defensive drones mimic hawks by targeting the most vulnerable enemy drones, while attacking drones behave like doves to evade the hawks. In a five-on-five simulation, the hawks destroyed all the doves in just 5.3 seconds." TOI. Drones cannot command an army. "The senior ranks of the People's Liberation Army (PLA) are in tatters. The weekend purging of China's top general, Zhang Youxia, and another senior military officer, Gen Liu Zhenli, has left serious questions about what triggered the elite power struggles unfolding in the country - and what this means for China's war fighting capacity." BBC. "Chinese leader Xi Jinping's decision to place the country's top-ranking general under investigation is a stunning move that leaves Xi virtually alone at the top of the military hierarchy," "But the purge makes one thing clear: Xi sees no target too big to be taken down." Zhang was a close ally of Xi and "Their fathers had fought together in China's civil war." CNN. It seems that Xi has become paranoid like every dictator must become. It would have started in 2018 at the National People's Congress which "approved the removal of the two-term limit on the presidency, effectively allowing Xi Jinping to remain in power for life." BBC. Xi must know how Liu Shaoqi' life ended, having delivered a speech about him in the Great Hall of the People on 23 November 2018. wikipedia. He cannot afford to be deposed. So his brutality will only increase. Unless someone stops him. Permanently.       

It's fundamental.

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman is to unveil her ninth Budget on 1 February and "The key sectors to look out for this year include railways, infrastructure, urban development, manufacturing, auto, defense, electronics MSME, renewable energy and AI among others." Mint. It may require an urgent last-minute fiscal adjustment as, "The Supreme Court has ruled that the right to menstrual hygiene is an integral part of the right to life under Article 21 of the Constitution." "A bench of Justice LB Pardiwala and R Mahadevan directed all states and Union territories to ensure that every school provides biodegradable sanitary napkins free of cost to adolescent girls." nowsonair.gov.in. Why only adolescent girls? If it is a right to life then all women should be provided. After all, the government is providing free food grains to 813.5 million people for five years, starting 1 January 2024, at a cost of Rs 11.80 trillion. pib.gov.in. The right to travel is a fundamental right. "The Modi government ran up a bill of Rs 356.7 million in 2018-19 for the upkeep of 27 'ghost' airports from where no flights take off, an RTI query has revealed. These 27 are among a total of 31 non-operational airports in the country. There are another 15 that are operational but no scheduled flights operate from there." The Print. Operational, zero flight airports serve the fundamental right of not to travel. Railways are a key sector. "A delay of over four years pushed up the cost of the country's first bullet train project by around 83% to Rs 1.98 trillion. TOI. And so, "The Indian Railways has told the Central Information Commission (CIC) that its methodology for calculating passenger train fares is a matter of 'trade secret' and commercial confidence, and, therefore, it cannot be disclosed under the Right to Information Act (RTI)." ET. Since earnings are finite, train fare may impinge on our budget for food, clothing and healthcare which are fundamental rights. On 27 January, a viral video "shows a crowd of passengers squeezing into a Vande Bharat train in Bihar, allegedly without tickets." "Vande Bharat services are fully ticketed and positioned as a premium offering by the Railways, making the scene especially jarring for many viewers." TIE. If the pricing of tickets is a "trade secret" people of Bihar will decide what they want to pay. "If China's official numbers and India's official projections were to be compared, just Uttar Pradesh and Bihar together now have more births than all of China, even though the population of the two Indian states taken together is just 26% of China's 1.41 billion." HT. Exercising their fundamental right to consummate. FM Sitharaman said India's macroeconomic fundamentals are "stronger than ever". ET. Not just economic. We know all our fundamentals.

Correct, but of little consequence.

The Economic Survey for 2025-26, tabled in Parliament yesterday, paints a rosy picture for India, with 7.4% real GDP growth in this financial year and 6.8%-7.2% in 2026-27. "India is now the fourth largest economy, behind the US, China and Germany," but "global conditions translate into uncertainties rather than immediate macroeconomic stress." ET. "Fiscal prudence, conservatism and economic growth earned the country three credit rating upgrades last year." The rupee fell 6% against the dollar in 2025 but, "when the frame is widened to a six-year window beginning February 2020, most major emerging market currencies, including the Indian rupee, have weakened against the dollar by a similar magnitude," Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran. "Three credit rating upgrades" seems to imply a jump of three places, but it is actually three agencies which upgraded India by one notch. In May 2025, Morningstar DBRS upgraded India to BBB from BBB (low), in August, S&P upgraded to BBB from BBB- and in September, Japan's Rating and Investment Inc upgraded to BBB+ from BBB. pib.gov.in. Why does the CEA choose a 6-year window? Why not 5, 10 or 20 years? "India must align its policies to boost agricultural exports and avoid ad hoc restrictions that disrupt supply chains and damage the country's reputation as a reliable supplier." India could reach exports of $100 billion in agriculture, marine products and beverages. ET. High food prices are immediately visible and may hurt votes, which is why the government interferes to keep prices down. In 2023, "India has started importing tomatoes from Nepal," as "Tomato prices have surged 1,400% at the wholesale market to a record Rs 140 per kg." Reuters. This was after, in July 2023, "A farmer in Medak district of Telangana has earned nearly Rs 20 million during the last 15 days by selling his tomato crop." NDTV. However, just a few months later, in October, farmers were reduced to destroying their tomato crops because prices crashed to Rs 2 per kg. TOI. They incurred enormous losses. "Maharashtra has witnessed 781 farmer suicides in the first nine months of 2025 due to loans, crop failures and excessive rainfall, informed...Minister Makarand Jadhav. Public memory is short. "Unconditional cash transfers (UCTs) have rapidly become a central pillar of welfare policy across Indian states, offering immediate income support, especially to women, but also raising difficult fiscal and economic questions." UCT spending is estimated at Rs 1.7 trillion in FY 26. ET, Just before Assembly election in Bihar last year, "Prime Minister Narendra Modi transferred Rs 10,000 each directly to that bank accounts of 7.5 million women in the state." Brazen buying of votes at a cost of Rs 75 billion. TOI. In Darbhanga's Jale block male villagers also received Rs 10,000 due to "technical problems". When asked to return the money they refused saying, First return our votes to get back money." TOI. The CEA can only produce statistics and make polite suggestions but the coterie in power will do anything to stay in power. Once you resort to abuse of power, using investigative agencies to abuse the opposition (The Wire), any loss of power will result in swift retaliation. The Economic Survey is correct. But, a waste of time.  

Uneasy mother.

 On 27 January, "India and the European Union have concluded what EU chief described as the 'mother of all deals', amid smiles, even open-mouth guffaw, handshakes and a giant photo op. A comprehensive Free Trade Agreement (FTA) was finalized "that is expected to significantly boost India's manufacturing and services sectors, deepen market access and strengthen investor confidence." TOI. "Both countries, however, kept sensitive agricultural products out of the FTA." "On a weighted average basis, the tariffs levied by India on products imported from the EU stands at about 9.6%, while the same on Indian goods in EU is around 3.6%. Once the FTA takes effect, India will bring nearly 96% of EU goods to zero tariff, while the EU will end duties on about 98% of Indian goods." Mint. Nominal Gross Domestic Product (GDP), or GDP at current prices, of the EU was $19.5 trillion in 2024, while India's nominal GDP was less than one-fourth that of the EU's, at $3.9 trillion in 2024. World Bank. so. who gains more? "The EU plans to levy a surcharge on imports of highly polluting industries like steel, aluminium, cement and fertilizers under its Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM)." "While steel exports are modest compared to domestic production," "The trading bloc accounts for 40% of India's steel exports of 8.6 million tonnes in 2025." Mint. As for fertilisers, "India imported 85% more urea, 46% more DAP and 122% more NPK fertilisers in the first nine months of this fiscal year compared with a year earlier, according to provisional data released by the Fertiliser Association of India." ET. The EU needn't worry. If Indian wine connoisseurs are licking their lips at the prospect of duties falling from 150% to 75% and then to 20% on premium wines, "complex state taxes, registration fees and distribution hurdles continue to constrain foreign labels. As a result, any duty relief is expected to benefit only a narrow band of premium imports." Mint. Any gain from the fall in tariffs could be neutralized by a fall in the exchange value of the rupee. The rupee is trading at 91,909 to one US dollar this morning, having closed at 92.043 yesterday. Investing.com. The rupee could go to 95 or even 100 against the dollar. Meanwhile, the euro has strengthened to just over $1.20, "its highest level since 2021." Reuters. The EU is comprised of 27 nations (wikipedia) who have to ratify the deal through their legislatures. Prime Minister Narendra Modi reached out to all 27 nations by tweeting in all 24 official languages of the EU. Some EU prime ministers responded in Hindi. India Today. But, India's External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar had some sharp words for the Polish Deputy Prime Minister Radoslaw Sikorski's recent visit to Pakistan. "Poland should display zero tolerance for terrorism and not help fuel the terrorist infrastructure in our neighborhood" Mr Sikorski had expressed satisfaction with India's reduction in Russian oil imports "because this is financing the war machine of Putin." Dawn. Another EU nation Croatia also came in for some tongue-lashing. "Members of terrorist group Sikhs for Justice (SFJ) trespassed and vandalized Indian embassy in Zagreb and tried to replace the Tricolour with a 'Khalistani flag', drawing strong condemnation from Indian govt." TOI. The UK is yet to ratify the FTA with India, signed in July 2025. House of Commons Library. It may be the mother of all deals. But motherhood is never easy. We wait for the baby. 

Gig, or donkey.

At Independence in 1947, 80% of India's population "faced extreme poverty. This has dropped to 5%, thanks to many factors, ranging from the land reforms of the 1950s and the green revolution of the 60s to the big bank liberalisation of the 90s." However, inequality remains extreme. On the one hand, the top 10% of the population earns 57.7% of total income, while the bottom 50% earns just 15%. On the other hand, unemployment level is at 13% among graduates and 12.4% among postgraduates, but just 3.2% in the general population. Mint. In the absence of regular jobs, many young people take up gig work. "According to various news reports, there are approximately 12 million gig workers as of FY 2024-25, up from 7.7 million in 2020-21, now comprising 2% of the total workforce. This growth - at a compound annual rate of about 17%, and a 38% year-on-year surge in FY 2024-25 - has been fueled by digital connectivity, rapid urbanisation and a cultural shift towards more flexible work arrangements." Mint. However, a strike by gig workers drew attention to their work conditions. Delivery workers went on "A nationwide New Year's Eve strike to protest low pay and lack of social security benefits" and "Gig workers who power the app economy are protesting pressure from 10-minute delivery models which they say are leading to accidents, injuries and mental stress." TOI. Reacting to the complaints, "The Indian government has asked all quick-commerce platforms to drop the controversial '10-minute delivery' promise amid concerns over worker safety." BBC. However, "A recent study by Achyuta Adhvaryu and colleagues shows that compared to their Indonesian and Kenyan counterparts, gig workers in India (in 2024) were better off: working fewer hours, at higher efficiency levels for better pay," wrote Nitin Pai. Earning up to Rs 27,000 per month for working 58 hours a week is not bad for an entry level job and it also provides a cushion while looking for full-time employment. Jobs can only be created by investment. While foreign direct investment (FDI) surged to 4% of GDP in China and Vietnam during their boom phase, "That figure never surpassed 1.5% in India, and it is now just 0.1%, which is one-sixth of the emerging market average." Hence, "This decade, a net total of 6,75,000 people emigrated each year, up from 3,25,000 in the 2010s," wrote Ruchir Sharma. These are the legal migrants. The unqualified, dazzled by stories of an affluent lifestyle from relatives or friends, spend Rs 3-10 million to be smuggled into Western countries,  through 'donkey routes', losing their money if caught and deported back to India (BBC). Shamefully, "One Indian was caught at the US border every 20 minutes in 2025," as "US Customs and Border Protection reported 23,830 Indians were intercepted between January and December 2025. This was much lower than 85,119 in 2024, but the figure still placed India among the top source countries of illegal migrants." ET. Obviously, the number of the successful is unknown. While China recorded a trade surplus of nearly $1.2 in 2025 (Reuters), we are exporting people. Surplus to requirements. Of little value.

Principled, or not.

"India joined China, Pakistan and 4 other countries in voting against a UN Human Rights Council resolution that strongly deplored the crackdown on protests in Iran and extended the mandate of a fact-finding mission on the country by 2 years, while authorizing it to investigate last month's repression. The 47-member body adopted the resolution with 25 votes in favor, 7 against and 14 abstentions." TOI. Naturally, "Mohammad Fathali, Ambassador of Iran to India,..expressed Tehran's 'sincere gratitude' to the Indian government for its 'principled and firm support' while voting against a resolution which was finally adopted by the UN Human Rights Council during its 39th special session." NDTV. "An Iranian official in the region said...the authorities have verified at least 5,000 people had been killed in protests in Iran, including 500 security personnel, blaming 'terrorists and armed rioters' for killing 'innocent Iranians'." "The final toll is not expected to increase sharply," the official said. Reuters. "As protesters rallied in more than 100 cities across the country after nightfall, Iran went dark. At 8 pm, the authorities shut down internet access and blocked international phone calls, imposing an unprecedented communications blackout on the nation's 92 million people. In that darkness security forces cracked down." The deadliest crackdown in the 47 years of the Islamic Republic. CNN. On 11 January, nearly 60 similar 50-seater buses crossed into Iran from Iraq apparently carrying 'pilgrims'. "The passengers did not resemble pilgrims. There were no families, no elderly travellers. There were only young men, all dressed in identical T-shirts." These were mercenaries brought in by the regime to kill Iranian citizens. India Today. All in the name of religion. "National human rights institutions around the world are accredited by GANHRI, which ensures their compliance with the Paris Principles." The National Human Rights Commission (NHRC) of India "was subjected to GANHRI evaluation in 2016, 2023 and 2024, in which its 'A' status was deferred thrice by a sub-committee on accreditation, or the SCA." They recommended "plurality of gender, ethnicity and representation of religious minorities within the NHRC." The Wire. On 4 January, in Odisha, a Christian pastor was forced to drink drain water and cow-dung water by a Hindu mob "following claims that he was involved in religious conversions." NDTV. On 15 August (Independence Day) 2022, eleven men, convicted of raping Bilkis Bano, who was pregnant, and killing 14 members of her family including her 3-year old daughter, in 2002 were prematurely released by Mr Modi's government. BBC. "For years, women in distress knew the first place to go to: Delhi Commission for Women." "Try that now. At its Vikas Bhawan office, ask the guard for Mahila Aayog and he shrugs without even looking up, "Bandh hai (shut)." TOI. Minorities, women, protesters are all to be condemned. Obviously, our support of Iran is highly "principled and firm". Why don't some of us feel proud? Are not so "principled"?                  

Just a little nudge.

"As India prepares for the Union Budget, salaried individuals and middle-class taxpayers are hoping for relief measures to ease financial stress and boost disposable income. With direct and indirect tax collections at robust levels, expectations are high for reforms that balance relief with growth," wrote Homi Mistry. In 2019, corporate tax rate was reduced to an effective rate of 25.17%, inclusive of surcharge and cess. For a new investment, the effective rate was even lower at 17.01%. pib.gov.in. In 2025, the threshold for personal income tax was raised to Rs 1.20 million and to Rs 1.275 million for salaried individuals. Bajaj Finance. If tax collections have been robust, why "India's fiscal deficit for April to November, of the first eight months of this fiscal year, was at Rs 9.76 trillion, equivalent to 62.3% of annual estimates, widening from the previous year's 52.5%?" ET. In 2023-24, 6% of the population filed income tax returns. However, in 2022-23, 63% of filers did not pay any income tax. PRS. We do not know how many people would have dropped out of the tax bracket after the increase in income tax threshold. However, the 2025 Budget estimated income tax revenue to rise 14.4%, from Rs 12.57 trillion in 2024-25 to Rs 14.38 trillion in this financial year. PRS. This acts as a target for income tax (IT) officials who then resort to unjustified demands, known as 'tax terrorism' in India (ET), with the result that around 600,000 disputed tax cases, amounting to a total of over Rs 16 trillion, are pending before courts (BW). To fulfill their targets, "Under its 'nudge' initiative, the tax department sent automated alerts asking taxpayers to re-evaluate their 2024-25 returns and revise them before 31 December 2025. I-T officials have used Artificial Intelligence, Annual Information Statement, Form 16 and foreign reporting mechanisms to issue such alerts." ET. IT officials have corrupted Prof Richard Thaler's Nobel Prize winning 'Nudge Theory' to help people BBC) into a weapon and utilised AI and other tech tools to terrorise legitimate taxpayers. "The daily average price of various crude grades (popularly known as Indian basket) dipped to $59.29 a barrel." "A research report by State Bank of India (SBI) said...that crude oil prices would 'soften significantly in 2026' to touch $50 per barrel by 2026." HT. This would be of no benefit to Indian citizens because the government intends to levy taxes on the windfall gains of fuel retailing companies, instead of reducing fuel prices at pumps. HT. Toll collections on national highways are expected to cross Rs 1 trillion in financial year 2026-27, about 25% higher than Rs 750 billion this year. ET. High cost of fuel and tolls translates to high transport cost which affects prices of all goods and services, causing inflation. Inflation erodes wealth so that savings of Rs 100 million, which looks luxurious today, will be worth just Rs 15 million in 30 years with an average inflation rate of 6-7%, calculated Chartered Accountant Nitin Kaushik. ET. The Budget is another eyewash. A nudge for us, a cudgel for IT.      

Trying to beat 1991?

"India's foreign exchange reserves witnessed a massive surge of $14.167 billion to reach $701.36 billion in the week ended January 16, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) data showed." Reserves increased by $392 million the previous week. Zee. "RBI...announced a series of liquidity measures that will inject more than $23 billion (around Rs 2 trillion) into the banking system, following a review of current liquidity and financial conditions." ET. On Friday (23 Jan), "The rupee slipped close to the 92 mark before ending the day at 91.94 against the dollar, down 24 paise." The RBI sold dollars to support the rupee, pulling rupees out of the banking system. "This tightening of liquidity tends to push up short-term interest rates," making borrowing more expensive. So, the RBI conducted a dollar swap to solve the problem. "Under this arrangement, banks sell dollars to the central bank and receive rupees, with an agreement to reverse the transaction after three years." This increases liquidity and reduces yields on bonds, while the RBI sells dollars in the spot market to push the rupee up. TOI. In effect, the RBI is short-selling borrowed dollars. The rupee lost 5% against the US dollar in 2025. This will raise the cost of durable goods like air-conditioners and washing machines etc. where imported components comprise 20-60% of material costs. Hence the core inflation, which ignores volatile food and fuel prices (Investopedia), "has stayed above 4% for 11 consecutive months and hit 4.6% in December." As prices rise, consumers may cut or postpone purchase which may impact earnings and profits of companies, wrote Rumki Majumdar & Swapnil Kothari. "India typically runs a current account deficit (exports minus imports) and a surplus on the capital account (it receives more capital than it sends out)." Mint. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and remittances by non-resident Indians (NRI) contribute to the capital account. "The overseas Indian community transferred $135.46 billion to India during the previous fiscal year (2024-25), setting a new record." TOI. Although, inward FDI has held steady, repatriation of FDI by foreign investors has "jumped from around $18 billion pre-pandemic to $44 billion and $51 billion in 2023-24 and 2024-25 respectively." Also, outward FDI by Indians has more than doubled from $13 billion in 2019-20 to $28 billion in 2024-25, most of it going to tax havens like Singapore, Mauritius and the UAE. Rich Indians are protecting their wealth against high taxes and the depreciation of the rupee. To add to the outflow, Indian exports to China increased by a negligible $5.5 billion to $19.75 billion during January-December 2025, while imports from China soared 12.8% to $135.87 billion, so that the trade deficit with China jumped to a record $116.12 billion. TOI. While, fertilizer imports "are expected to surge 76% from a year earlier to a record $18 billion." ET. While dollar inflows fall, outflows and deficits rise, the rupee will continue to fall. The RBI can print the rupee but it cannot create dollars. The Budget could expect a dividend up to, or over, Rs 3 trillion, since the RBI paid Rs 2.56 trillion last year. MC. Will the RBI run out of reserves? And if so, what happens to the rupee? The rupee was devalued by 20% in July 1991. wikipedia. The present government may want to beat that. 30% or 50%?        

Sell anything, except that one, please.

"I have a great respect for your prime minister (Modi). He is a fantastic man and a friend of mine. We are gonna have a good deal," said President Donald Trump. Talks have been going on since March-April 2025, ever since Trump imposed 50% tariffs on India. HT. At the same time, he claimed to have stopped the India-Pakistan conflict, called Operation Sindoor, from 7-10 May (wikipedia). "Trump has made this assertion upwards of 80 times, according to news reports, despite New Delhi maintaining that the two countries had no help from a third country in arriving at the decision to end tensions." The Wire. Perhaps, to freshen memories, "The US Securities and Exchange Commission has asked a US court for help in serving summonses upon Indian billionaire Gautam Adani and group executive Sagar Adani over alleged fraud and a $265 million bribery scheme, filings show." "Serving a summons is often routine, but the SEC said India's law ministry had refused two requests to have its summonses served on the Adanis." Reuters. As a result, Adani Group stocks plunged. "The combined market capitalisation of all 10 listed entities fell Rs 1.40 trillion to Rs 12.20 trillion during the day." msn.com. In February 2025, after Prime Minister Narendra Modi said that MAGA + MIGA = MEGA, Congress MP Jairam Ramesh remarked, "Actually, the only equation that counts is Modi + Adani = Modani." ANI. Did someone whisper it into Trump's shell-like? Meanwhile, 27 January is the expected D-Day for the signing of the Broad-based Trade and Investment Agreement (BTIA) between India and the EU. "This will be the mother of all deals," said Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal. ET. "The real impact of the India-EU FTA will be shaped by how effectively it is implemented, how ambitiously industry engages with it and how decisively both governments support collaboration beyond tariff restrictions and legal frameworks." HT. As an encouragement, "India's exports to the European Union is facing higher tariffs from January 1, 2026 after the EU suspended Generalised Scheme of Preferences (GSP) benefits for 87% of Indian goods," which "means that a large share of Indian exports will now be charged full Most Favored Nation (MFN) tariffs, ending years of preferential access under EU's unilateral trade arrangement for developing countries." TOI. The suspension applies to, "minerals, chemicals, plastics and rubber, textiles and garments, stone and ceramics, precious metals, iron and steel, base metals, machinery, electrical goods and transport equipment." At the same time, EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) will add costs to Indian steel and aluminium exports. TOI. So tight is the squeeze that the "government has asked Indian embassies and commercial missions to step up outreach across all markets, big or small, with a clear message from the PMO (Prime Minister's Office). The message is simple, almost an ad theme like: 'Har ek country zaroori hota hai'." ET. No harm in our ambassadors hawking pakodas (The Hindu). Just stay off cough medicines (BBC) please. Not good ad.  

Growth, not in the middle.

"Even with external uncertainties lingering, the Indian economy is expected to record a healthy growth of 7% in the upcoming financial year 2026-27." According to CareEdge Ratings, "The growth momentum has been supported by income tax cuts, GST rate rationalisation, continued momentum in services exports, easing inflationary pressures and RBI rate cuts." ET. All this is maybe true, "Yet beneath the headline numbers sits a quieter, more uncomfortable reality: urban India, especially its middle class, is still holding back." "Rural demand has led the recovery," but "Urban consumers drive discretionary spending, from cars and appliances to housing upgrades and lifestyle services. When they delay purchases, entire value chains slow." ET. Rural demand partly depends on the National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (NREGS) which entitles "every rural household to demand up to 100 days paid manual work each year at a statutory minimum wage." The central government paid 90% of the cost. Now the scheme has been replaced by a scheme called G RAM G which will force states to pay over 40%, wrote Soutik Biswas. Already, "A surge in borrowing by Indian states is complicating the central bank's efforts to lower interest rates as officials worry the increased supply of bonds could affect the yield curve." "State governments are issuing debt at a pace that increasingly rivals sovereign borrowing, significantly boosting bond supply for a shared pool of investors." Reuters. The central government may be slyly trying to shift its expenditure on the states but increased cost of borrowing will nullify some of the gain. As a result, "The delay in including Indian bonds in a key global index has raised the chances of the central bank extending its record government debt buying, seeking to cushion the market from weaker foreign inflows and rising yields." Reuters. This is also known as monetizing government debt by creating new money and is considered to be inflationary  (wikipedia), but the RBI may think it can get away with it because the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation came in at a low 1.3% in December (HT), while the Wholesale Price Inflation was even lower at 0.83%.  Such low inflation rates is because food prices fell by 0.43% in December after falling 4.16% in November, with vegetable prices falling 3.50% in December after falling by an enormous 2023% in November. TOI. Vegetables are perishable so the crash in prices will hurt farm income and may adversely affect rural spending. "With just 17 net hires in the first nine months of the 2025-26 financial year, India's top five IT companies eased off the hiring throttle and moved firmly into caution mode." TOI. Bad news for first-time job seekers. According to the State of Working India 2023 report by Amit Basole and his team at Azim Premji University, "Although upward mobility at the lower end of the hierarchy has improved somewhat in recent years, it's still severely restricted." "Folks at the top of the ladder don't see the teeming masses as a meaningful market," while "those at the bottom of the pyramid lack the education and skills to manufacture things for the wealthy at home and overseas." ET. Gig work will not raise them to the middle class. "An unambitious elite spoiled by finance - plus a working class held back by inadequate education and inequities of caste and gender - are stymying the emergence of a global middle class in India." No middle class, lower tax collections. Will the RBI keep printing money to support the government? The world watches.              

Unilateral national interest.

"As New Delhi prepares to host the European Union's top leadership for India's 77th Republic Day celebrations and the 16th India-EU Summit on January 27," "the long-pending India-EU Free Trade Agreement (FTA), formally the Broad-based Trade and Investment Agreement (BTIA), would mark a strategic, economic and geopolitical turning point." "The EU is pressing India to sharply reduce export duties on cars, which can exceed 100%." ET. But what happens if Ford, a US company, claims the same tax reductions on its exports from its manufacturing plants in Europe (wikipedia)? Will our tax officials suddenly present it with a huge tax demand for using the EU to avoid taxes on its sales in India, even as President Donald Trump imposed 50% tariffs on Indian goods in August 2025 (BBC). Recently, the tax authorities in India demanded a capital gains tax of Rs 145 billion (over $1.7 billion) on Tiger Global (TG) Mauritius over the sale of Flipkart Singapore shares to Walmart. Flipkart Singapore owns Flipkart India so TG is accused of using the FTA with Mauritius to avoid tax on an Indian company. ET. The Supreme Court upheld the tax demand saying that "Treaties should be driven by national interest, not pressure from foreign governments and corporations." PTI. Indeed. But that surely must be during negotiations and not as an afterthought, to increase revenue. "Indian government data shows that in the 23 years to 2023, foreign investment inflows from Mauritius were the largest at $171 billion - a quarter of all investment inflows in that period." "An updated India-Mauritius treaty in 2017 ended the tax-free system but said all pre-2017 investments would continue to enjoy the previous benefits under a so-called grandfathering clause." Reuters. In the case of Nestle, a Swiss company, in 2024, the Supreme Court ruled that a tax benefit offered to one nation could not be extended to another even though both have Double Tax Avoidance Agreement (DTAA) with India. dpncindia.com. Switzerland promptly revoked India's Most Favored Nation (MFN) status under the DTAA and imposed 10% duties on Indian imports. NDTV. "India has issued a final warning to Apple that it will proceed in an antitrust case against the US tech giant as the company has delayed responses to officials," as "Apple has said it fears it could be fined up to $38 billion if India's competition watchdog uses its global turnover calculation for penalties, after an investigation found it had abused its position on its app store." ET. "Apple Inc's manufacturing push in India has resulted in a dramatic surge in iPhone exports, with shipments crossing the $50 billion mark under the production-linked incentive scheme period." TOI. The manufacturing sector in India comprises just 17% of GDP and the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) would try to increase this to 25% of GDP. pib.gov.in. Apple is already manufacturing and exporting. Also, both Apple and Tiger Global are US companies and Trump is in the White House. In 2025, India removed a 6% tax on digital advertising, known as Google tax, which would have affected Google, Meta and Amazon. TOI. The Supreme Court ruled in national interest. Is our national interest served by driving away foreign investment even as we continuously run huge trade deficits (TOI)? "National interest" has already bowed to "pressure from a foreign government". Read all the fine print while signing FTAs. Selective change later will invite retaliation and a bad reputation. After all, every country has its own "national interest".    

It's not the foreign media

"In the past, as the adage had it, a story from the subcontinent wasn't newsworthy unless it involved the death of one American, or ten Englishmen, or a thousand Indians." But now that India's economy has improved, the "media elites in places such as New York, London and Doha" are presenting a distorted picture of India, which is spread globally by social media, and harms our democracy and diplomacy. India should pass a law seeking the "right to reply" as in Singapore, wrote Prof Rahul Sagar. The problem with replying is that people are reminded of the original criticism, or are informed of it, if they had missed it in the first place. So, India applies the guillotine. "In 2024, governments across the world imposed a staggering 296 internet shutdowns in 54 countries," of which, "India, which has topped the global list for six consecutive years, recorded 84 internet shutdowns in 2024," second only to military junta of Myanmar. India Today. The government regularly orders social media companies to delete posts it does not like. Meta received thousands of removal orders in 2022, while X received 53,000 orders in 2022. In total, "By 2024, the number grew to 100,000 requests every six months," and "This means every 3 out of 10 posts by India were dropped, surpassing other democracies." Bhaskar English. A foreign organisation, Freedom House rated India as partly free in Internet freedom with 50 out of 100. In August 2025, "In response to a parliament question about the decline in India's press freedom rankings and cases of violence and intimidation of journalists, the Union government has stated that "India has a vibrant press and media ecosystem, which does not need validation from foreign organisations." The Wire. Not foreign, we Indians know that the entire media has been reduced to "Godi Media", meaning 'lapdog media'. wikipedia. Cinema is not exempt. "Indian cinema has seen two major changes post 2014 - a rise in propaganda film supporting the ruling BJP's ideology, and severe censorship or banning of movies that are critical of the BJP-led government and groups like the RSS, or for 'hurting Hindu religious sentiments'." DH. In 2023, Supreme Court Justice KM Joseph opined, "Hinduism is not a religion but a way of life...Hinduism is a way of life and there is no bigotry in Hinduism." TBS. If Hinduism is not a religion, how is it possible to hurt "Hindu religious sentiment"?  "A 24-year-old MBA student from Tripura died after being stabbed during a racist attack in Dehradun." Anjel Chakma was accused of being Chinese by a hate mob even though he told them he is Indian. News18. Four days ago, 33-year old Sheikh Makarand Muhammad was lynched by cow vigilantes in Odisha after being forced to chant a religious slogan. TOI. In December 2025, "Days after multiple incidents of violence across the nation during Christmas, the influential Catholic Church in Kerala ...published a sharp critique of the BJP government at the center and Prime Minister Narendra Modi." The Print. A few days ago, US President Donald Trump launched air strikes against Islamic militants in Nigeria for killing Christians, and warned of more to come. BBC. Prof Sagar may have got it the other way round. It may not be the foreign media which is influencing anti-Indian sentiment, but foreign governments which are communicating their opinions to the media. There are 159 embassies/ high commissions in Delhi (wikipedia) which regularly send classified reports to their parent governments. What is very problematic is that we don't know what they are writing. It certainly will not be validation. Beware.  

The Greenland diversion.

"The United States could have to pay as much as $700 billion if it were to achieve President Donald Trump's goal of buying Greenland." "Officials from Denmark and Greenland have rejected Trump's claims that the US will acquire Greenland 'one way or the other'." NBC. Although only 20% of Greenland is free of ice, it has "critical minerals, from traditional commodities such as copper, lead and zinc that have been mined on a small scale in ice-free coastal areas since 1780," to an estimated "36 million tonnes of rare earths, though only 1.5 million tons are currently considered proven," and "one of the largest deposits of uranium in the world." Atlantic Council. In December, "Copper has sprinted to fresh all-time highs in late 2025, with LME three-month prices repeatedly testing the psychologically important $12,000/tonne mark, while Indian futures have surged above Rs 1,240/kg." ET. "The White House said... that President Trump is discussing options for acquiring Greenland, including potential use of the US military." Reuters. Denmark colonized Greenland in the 20th century and "The Greenland National Council consented to the decision, but they were given little time to decide and there was never a referendum on the matter in Greenland." DIIS. It seems that Greenland residents were presented with a fait accompli and decided to surrender. If Denmark colonised Greenland by force, the US can surely do the same. European nations, which have a bloody history as colonial ravagers, have decided on armed response. "A small French military contingent has arrived in Greenland's capital Nuuk," and "The limited deployment, which also involves Germany, Sweden, Norway, Finland, the Netherlands and the UK," (BBC) is meant to stop the US. So how many brigades or platoons will take on the US? "The UK is sending one military officer, the Netherlands is matching that number, and Finland and Sweden are sending two each." France may have sent a dozen. "The number of troops being committed to Greenland defence reveals Europe's military seriousness." India Today. This is hilarious. Duplicitous European states have repeatedly destroyed US attempts at peace in Ukraine. "The original 28-point plan from the administration proposed recognizing Russia's battlefield advantages. It was an ugly plan ...but it was realistic - a serious effort to end the conflict." "However, the reaction of official Europe was predictable: hysterical opposition." Cato Institute. With Europe occupied with armed defense of Greenland, Trump can move ahead with peace in Ukraine. As an antidote to Trump, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer is attempting to partially reverse Brexit (Britannica) by forging "a 'closer relationship' with the single market, which would not mean ripping up those new trade deals elsewhere." BBC. Ironically, the European Union was born in 1957 as the European Economic Community, also called the European Common Market. wikipedia. India has already signed a Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) with the UK (pib.gov.in) and is set to sign a Broad-based Trade and Investment Agreement (BTIA) with the EU (ET). A few days ago, "Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Coria Machado has given her Nobel Peace Prize medal to President Donald Trump during a meeting at the White House (BBC)," but "the Nobel  foundation has issued a statement clarifying that prizes cannot be 'symbolically' given to others (HT)." The Peace Prize is a political symbol anyway, and so may be used politically by its owner. Trump should keep the duplicitous Europeans busy counting soldiers in Greenland while he sorts out Venezuela, Ukraine and Iran and, as an aside, help India with trade agreements. Brilliant. Bharat Ratna?   

In the loop.

At the end of 2025 India became the fourth largest economy in the world. "With GDP valued at $4.18 trillion, India has surpassed Japan to become the world's fourth-largest economy and is poised to displace Germany from the third rank in the next 2.5 to 3 years, with projected GDP of $7.3 trillion by 2030," the government release said. TOI. One US dollar buys Rs 90.66 this morning. xe.com. Taking an exchange rate of Rs 90.60 to one dollar, $4.18 trillion amounts to Rs 378.71 trillion. "In absolute terms, the (2025) budget projected nominal GDP to be Rs 356.98 trillion." "The first advance estimate puts it at Rs 357.14 trillion which will be marginally higher than the Budget aim." This converts to $3.94 trillion, sharply lower than $4.18 for fourth position. "The government's tax collections have grown only 3.3% in April-November, sharply lower than 10.8% growth aimed for in the Budget." The shortfall has been filled by increased dividends and profits from public sector undertakings (PSUs), wrote Nandita Venkatesan. Since they are controlled by the government, they may have been told to 'stand and deliver'. They have already coughed up Rs 3.4 trillion, 104% of the Budget estimate. To help the government raid PSUs, "The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) draft circular allowing banks to distribute up to 75% of their net profits as dividends, up from the earlier 45%, may open the door for higher payouts particularly from public sector banks (PSBs) where the government is the major shareholder." ET. Of course, they will obey government diktat. Already, the RBI has reduced the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) by 100 basis points, to increase liquidity and bring down borrowing costs. ET. The CRR is "the percentage of a commercial bank's total deposits that must be maintained as liquid cash with the RBI. This reserve is not available for lending or investment." cleartax.in. It also provides protection for our deposits. Total bank deposits have increased from Rs 18.4 trillion in FY05 to Rs 241.5 trillion in FY25, while bank credit has increased from Rs 11.5 trillion to Rs 191.2 trillion over the same period. ET. "The share of bank deposits in overall financial savings fell from 40.9% in FY21 to 35.2% in FY25." So, fresh credit amounted to 102% of deposits. The Wire. On 13 Jan, Bloomberg Index Services deferred inclusion or Indian government bonds in its flagship Global Aggregate Index which pushed up yields by 10 basis points. To support prices of G-secs and bring down yield, "The RBI has bought Rs 2.54 trillion ($27.99 billion) of bonds since December," and "Bond purchases in December and January are slated to exceed the Rs 2.76 trillion bought by the central bank between April and November." Reuters. Buying government bonds from the market, is the same as quantitative easing, and once central banks start financing fiscal deficit they cannot stop. It may result in a doom loop, wrote Prof Raghuram Rajan. If India is richer than Japan, and soon to overtake Germany, why is the RBI transferring our deposits to the government and resorting to quantitative easing? Hope we don't lose all. To protect the government.       

Bondage to yields.

"From 2026-27, the government will track its debt instead of fiscal deficit as its primary target." So the fiscal deficit has to be managed "in such a way that the ratio of central debt to gross domestic product  (GDP) declines to 50% (+ or -1%) by 31 March 2031." The G7 economies have a debt-to-GDP ratio of up to 124%, but they "generated tax revenues to the tune of 30-44% of GDP (except the US, with a tax-to-GDP ratio of 26%). "In contrast, India has a lower debt-to-GDP ratio, and most of its debt is domestic, but its tax revenues form merely 11% of GDP," wrote Deepa Vasudevan. "A fiscal deficit arises when a government's total expenditure surpasses its revenue, excluding its borrowed funds. The shortfall is typically managed by securing loans or issuing government bonds." Bajaj Finance. The government needs to pay interest on its bonds, and that brings us to yields. The government fixes a rate of interest on bonds depending on its duration to maturity which is its 'coupon rate'. However, "The market price of bonds may be above or below their face value as they trade in the secondary market," and the percentage of the coupon rate over its market price gives its yield. SBI Securities. Thus, bond prices are inversely related to yields. Markets take the 10-year bond yield as the benchmark. "The 10-year yield tells you what the bond market thinks about long-term interest rates, inflation expectations, and the direction of monetary policy." "For economists, lenders and fund managers alike, the 10-year bond is the benchmark." Jiraaf. "Since June, its yield has stubbornly stayed in a 6.40-6.60% range," wrote Madan Sabnavis. This is despite a 25-basis points (bps) cut in interest rates to 5.25% by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in December, for a total of 125 bps cut in 2025. NDTV. The higher the yield the more interest the government has to pay on its borrowings, so it tries its best to drive yield down to as low as possible. The Statutory Liquidity Ratio or "SLR obliges banks to hold a prescribed ratio (currently 18%) of their assets in the form of gold or government bonds, effectively the latter." "For decades, SLR has forced banks to become financiers of government debt," wrote Swaminathan Aiyar. Demand generated by banks helps to increase prices of G-secs and drive yield down. "Indian government bonds slipped in early deals yesterday," as "The benchmark 10-year yield was at 6.6692% at 10.30 am." ET. It closed at 6.678%. investing.com. JP Morgan Chase & Co is to reduce the weightage of India's bonds in its GBI-EM Global Diversified Index from 10% to 9% gradually. TOI. Also, early this week, Bloomberg Index Services deferred their decision to include Indian government bonds into its flagship Global Aggregate Index which "was expected to attract $20-25 billion into government debt. Instead, Bloomberg said it would continue reviewing Indian bonds and provide its next update by mid-2026." Mint. The government has raised the threshold for individual income tax and reduced rates in the goods and services tax (GST) (clear tax.in). At the same time its list of subsidies is almost endless. dge.gov.in. It cannot cut any for fear of losing elections. Revenues down, expenses up, high interest payments. Could the ratings be in danger? What a mess!                  

Monkey business.

The 2026 Henley Passport Index saw India climbing five places from 85th last year to "80th position, tied with Algeria. Indian citizens can now travel to 55 countries without prior visa, through visa-free, visa-on-arrival, or electronic travel authorisation (ETA) arrangements." We can now travel to St Vincent and the Grenadines without visa. ET. Suitcases packed, locked and loaded. While we celebrate the potential increase in our mobility, the erstwhile colonial ravagers of the European Union are continuing with their plunder by refusing 165,000 Schengen visa applications in 2024 without refunding Rs 1.36 billion in application fees. With each application costing an average of 85 euros (Rs 8,270), India ranked third globally in terms of money lost to visa rejections, after Algeria and Turkey." ET. Talking about billions, "A delay of over four years has pushed up the cost of country's first bullet train project by around 83% to Rs 1.98 trillion." "Initially, the project was sanctioned at a cost of around Rs 1.1 trillion." TOI. Naturally, "The Indian Railways has told the Central Information Commission (CIC) that the classification and methodology of fixing fares of different classes on passenger train falls in domain of 'trade secret/ intellectual property rights', and therefore, cannot be disclosed under the Right to Information Act." TOI. Just like the EU can take your money without giving any reason. It seems a season of plenty as, "The ICAR Central Inland Fisheries Research Institute (ICAR-CIFRI),..has recorded 230 fish species across different stretches of the Ganga river." "When the first survey was conducted in 1822, Ganga had 271 fish species." TOI. However, wildlife can thrive too much. "As the key strategy to tackle the growing monkey menace in the city (Delhi), 6,591 of them were captured and relocated to Asola Bhatti Wildlife Sanctuary between Feb 2021 and Dec 2025." However, like the EU, the macaques are continuing their raids. "Wildlife experts claim that many relocated monkeys either return or new groups occupy vacated territories." TOI. They have integrated with our society. So well, that a couple of monkeys turned up to watch Indian PV Sindhu lose to Vietnamese Thuy Linh Nguyen at the Badminton India Open. "A monkey was seen sitting in the stands of the Indira Gandhi Indoor Arena in the morning when the crowd was less." "Another monkey was seen in the stands of the adjacent KD Jadhav Indoor Hall that was being used as a practice arena." HT. Monkey see, monkey do. wikipedia. Dera Sacha Sauda chief Gurmeet Ram Rahim, "who is lodged at Rohtak's Sunaria jail and serving a 20-year term jail term for raping two of his disciples, was again granted a 40-day parole," his 15th release since 2020. "So far, he has spent 366 days out of jail." HT. Perhaps, the EU has a point.           

Refusing to yield.

India's consumer price index (CPI) inflation rate came in at 1.3% in December. "The latest inflation reading also means that quarterly inflation in the period ending December 2025, was 0.76%," because food prices contracted for the seventh consecutive month by 2.7% in December. "RBI's (Reserve Bank of India) December MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) resolution expects quarterly inflation for the periods ending March 2026 at 2.9%, 3.9%, 3.9% and 4% respectively." HT. These figures are well within the government's mandate of targeting CPI inflation rate of 4% with a margin of 2% on either side till March 2026. ET. In its December meeting, the MPC cut its policy rate by 25 basis points to 5.25% (DD News) to stimulate even faster economic growth. "The 10-year government bond yield is a benchmark that determines the interest- rate environment in the debt market." "Since June, its yield has stubbornly stayed in a 6.40-6.60% range." Despite the RBI "lowering its repo rate, which ought to have pulled down bond yields." G-secs set the benchmark for all bonds and so, "States lament that their cost of borrowing has gone up. Corporates too have to pay higher rates, even as bank loans have gotten cheaper," wrote Madan Sabnavis. Cutting interest rates is meant to make borrowing easier which should encourage companies to invest in new projects, thus increasing employment and boosting economic growth. The problem is that the RBI sells dollars to stop the rupee from devaluing precipitously against the dollar, which creates a shortage of the currency in the markets pushing up lending rates. In October, the rupee appreciated 0.8% in one day due to heavy dollar selling by the RBI. ET. "In June, the central bank announced a phased 100-basis-points CRR cut from September to November to release about 2.5 trillion rupees ($28.3 billion)." Reuters. The CRR or Cash Reserve Ratio "is a fixed percentage of a bank's total deposits that must be kept in cash with the RBI. This reserve cannot be used by banks for giving loans or making investments." Bajaj Finserve. The CRR is, therefore, meant to protect depositors against bank defaults who are insured for a derisory Rs 500,000, regardless of the amount of their precious savings they have entrusted to the banks (rbi.org.in). With the rupee trading at 90.31 to one dollar (xe.com), and with no end in sight for its plunge, the insured amount of Rs 500,000 looks increasingly worthless. With the government and the nation's central bank colluding to confiscate citizens' wealth it is no wonder that "Deposits fell by 8.97% to Rs 12.54 trillion in the financial year ending 2025." On the other hand, "Equity investments zoomed by almost 153%, reports Businessline. Mutual funds inflows nearly doubled, as they jumped 95% over the year." The Wire. Markets may fall, but that is preferable to a forcible loot. The bond market is refusing to yield. Will that protect us?        

Artificial lawyer by AI.

"India has 54 million pending cases, 47 million in district courts, 6.3 million in high courts and nearly 90,000 in the Supreme Court, with just 25,000 judges to handle them." The Union and state governments and public sector companies have filed the largest number of cases. " According to the Legal Information and Briefing System (LLMBS), "The finance Ministry alone is party to nearly 200,000 cases," wrote Aditya Sinha. The reasons are economical. Government officials keep on filing frivolous appeals against adverse judgement because they do not have to pay, the taxpayer loses out. Only one appeal should be allowed for free, after which officials should have to pay all costs from their own money. The second big reason is that lawyers charge fees in millions per appearance. shiksha.com. So, it is in their interest to ask for continuance repeatedly, allowing the wealthy to delay a verdict for decades. Some cases are pending for over 30 years  (SCO Observer) and in many instances a litigant has died before the dispute is resolved. Which makes the entire judicial system totally meaningless. Lawyers write the laws, argue on both sides and pronounce judgement as judges. Their charges are usurious, beyond the poor and the middle class (India Legal), and affordable only to the wealthy and criminals. Lawyers must be forced to charge a flat fee for a case, regardless of the number of days required, and more than two continuances must be forbidden. Sadly, no lawyer will agree to write such a law. Entrepreneur Rohit Shroff has announced "his decision to abandon his 'Building in India' dream." "Citing a grueling tax environment and a sense of systemic 'suspicion' towards compliant taxpayers, Shroff revealed he has paid nearly Rs 40 million in taxes (GST and income tax) and plans to relocate his business abroad." msn.com. Creating opaque rules allows officials to make unjustified demands, forcing people to pay bribes. "Proving eligibility via documents is a unique burden that the Indian State places on its citizens." "The State took it upon itself to categorise the population as 'eligible' and 'ineligible'; after all corruption enables the 'ineligible' beneficiary to access the State. But to achieve its goal the bureaucracy appropriated the power to verify its own documents, casting suspicion both on its documents and, rather conveniently, on those in possession of these documents," wrote Yamini Aiyar. "Indians have long had a confrontational relationship with the nation's tax office, whose adversarial approach has crushed countless small businesses and international investors." "The problem isn't just that a tax demand might be arbitrary. Even if you eventually win, it takes a long time for the dispute to be settled," wrote Mihir Sharma. In some instances, a contributing reason to commit suicide (Moneylife). Perhaps, AI could be trained to analyse cases for a small fee, empowering citizens to argue their own cases in court or hold their lawyers responsible for poor representation. Since this will be online it will not need human input, thus bypassing politicians, officials and lawyers. Will they allow it? When extortion is so lucrative.           

Is exile still on the table?

"US commandos took less than three hours to bring an end to Nicolas Maduro's rule after the Venezuelan strongman spent years holding out against rising pressure from the US. More than 150 US aircraft swept into the country after the US neutralized Venezuela's air defenses, with an Army Delta Force unit delivered to the military base where Maduro was spending the night." ET. Although, Venezuelan casualties included civilians and members of security forces, US President Donald Trump exulted that the strike was "an incredible thing to see" and "no American soldiers were killed and no military equipment was lost." The Cable. It seems that Republican presidents have an urge to prove their virility by attacking weak countries in their vicinity. In October 1983, Ronald Reagan attacked the tiny Caribbean island of Grenada, with a population of just 114,621 in 2024 (wikipedia). In December 1989, George HW Bush invaded Panama, killing hundreds of Panamanian civilians and soldiers. Britannica. Panama's population was 4.9 million in 2024 and its total GDP was $87.3 billion in 2023. Global Finance. In 2003, George W Bush invaded Iraq, based on a brazen lie about weapons of mass destruction (WMDs). Britannica. Iraq had been weakened by the most egregious robbery in which the US, UK and Europe looted Iraqi oil in return for inadequate amounts of food and medicine in the grotesque "oil for food program". NYU Law. When asked about the unnecessary death of 500,000 Iraqi children from hunger and disease, Democrat Secretary of State Madeleine Albright casually said, "We think the price is worth it." johnpilger.com. Republicans and Democrats seem to share a savage brutality. And yet, the US resorts to panicked flight if faced with determined opposition as in the chaotic retreat from Afghanistan (BBC), a dirt-poor nation of an estimated 35-50 million people with an insignificant GDP of $17.329 (wikipedia), leaving behind $7.12 billion worth of military equipment, including "aircraft, air-to-ground munitions, military vehicles, weapons, communications equipment and other materials, according to the DoD report" (CNN). If Afghanistan could overwhelm the mighty US, why couldn't Saddam Hussein and Nicolas Maduro? Probably because the Taliban in Afghanistan is motivated by the Islamic ideal of Sharia (Reuters) and prepared to die to achieve paradise, while Saddam and Maduro were brutal dictators who were feared by their own commanders. Saddam was betrayed by his own cousin Gen Maher Sufiyan Al-Tariti in return for US dollars (Arab News) and Maduro was most likely betrayed by his bodyguards for the same reason (Central News). Are Democratic countries safe from US predation? Possibly, but their leaders could be kidnapped and charged in the US while visiting smaller nations, too weak to resist US pressure. Maduro's kidnapping appears a little curious. Although he is handcuffed and blindfolded, he is seen in a suit walking easily without leg irons. His Vice President Delcy Rodriguez has been sworn in as president and his party has been left intact. BBC. Apparently Maduro had rejected an offer of a luxurious exile in Turkey. msn.com. Did Maduro cooperate in his kidnapping to save face and preserve his machismo? Will he be exiled after a ritual trial and conviction? Intriguing. Very.     

All about borrowing.

"The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is aware of near-term risks to the Indian economy," HT. But, "The Indian economy and the financial system, in contrast, remain robust and resilient supported by strong growth, healthy balance sheets of financial and non-financial firms, sizeable buffers and prudent policy reforms," said RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra. "Bad loans are at a multi-decade low," but credit growth at non-banking financial companies (NBFC) was higher than "that of banks in all segments except in agriculture and allied activities." NBFCs borrow from commercial banks (72.9% last September) and are "not as closely regulated as banks" so defaults at NBFCs could have a knock-on effect on banks. Mint. But what about the government's bank, the RBI? This year's Budget will show how much dividend the government expects from the RBI. The 2025 Budget Estimate was Rs 2.34 trillion from the RBI and public sector banks. CNBC. In the event, the RBI transferred a record Rs 2.68 trillion (newsonair.gov.in), helping to keep the fiscal deficit under control. The RBI transferred Rs 874.16 billion in FY23 and more than doubled it to Rs 2.11 trillion in FY24. Already, "India's fiscal deficit for April to November, or the first eight months of this fiscal year, was at Rs 9.76 trillion, equivalent to 62.3% of annual estimates, widening from the previous year's 52.5%. The government aims to narrow the fiscal gap to 4.4% of GDP in this financial year from 4.8% a year earlier." ET. Monetization of the fiscal deficit "occurs when the government finances itself by issuing non-interest-bearing liabilities: that is, either currency in circulation of central banks reserves, if the central bank can avoid paying interest on those reserves." some.yale.edu. Income Tax rebate was increased from Rs 25,000 to Rs 60,000 this year and, in addition, the standard deduction for salaried workers has been increased to Rs 75,000. Bajaj Finserve. Also, the goods and services tax (GST) rates have been simplified and rates reduced on a range of items. cleartax.in. "India's goods and services tax (GST) collections reached Rs 1.75 trillion ($19.45 billion) in December, up 6.1% from the same month last year, the government said." ET. It may be up year-on-year but it is much lower than Rs 2.10 trillion in April 2024 and Rs 2.36 trillion in April 2025. Tata Nexarc. This may partly be because the consumer price inflation (CPI) inflation collapsed to just 0.7% in November after 0.3% in October. rateinflation.com. "India's household debt rose to 41.3% of GDP at the end of March 2025," "up from a five-year average of 38.3%". Borrowing for consumption is 55.3% of total household borrowing from financial institutions as of September 2025. ET. Naturally, "India's manufacturing sector expansion slowed to its weakest in two years in December as demand softened and firms curbed production...hiring has slowed to a near standstill." Reuters. Less consumption means less GST and a fall in hiring means less income tax. So, how much will the RBI pay the government? An indication in the dreaded Budget.