Wrong hyphenation.

"India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi told US President Donald Trump during a 35-minute telephonic conversation that there was no third-party involvement in ceasefire between India and Pakistan, countering a claim Trump has repeatedly made." ET. "But Trump just said - for the 15th time in 38 days - that he stopped the war. Who's lying?" asked Congress leader Manicham Tagore. "Why is a foreign leader the first to announce a crucial national security move? Even more strange - Why did India's Foreign Secretary issue a statement only in Hindi, on a matter of global diplomacy?" DH. Trump has been a teetotaler all his life  (TOI), so are we accusing him of hallucinating? "In a rare shift from his usual rhetoric US President Donald Trump refrained from taking credit for halting military hostilities between India and Pakistan, instead praising the leadership of PM Modi and Pakistan's Army Chief Asim Munir." ET. Just because he left it unsaid, it does not mean he is denying he called first. He could be praising both for heeding his advice. Trump "hosted Pakistan's army chief Field Marshall Asim Munir at the White House yesterday," "The lunch meeting was the first time a US president had hosted the powerful head of Pakistan's army...at the White House unaccompanied by senior Pakistani civilian officials." Reuters. This was a serious insult to the government of Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif (wikipedia), not just because Trump ignored it completely, but also because, by accepting the invitation, Munir showed his contempt for the elected government and the people of Pakistan. Also, "Trump doubled down on his mediation claim," and "According to White House Deputy Press Secretary Anna Kelly, Munir personally urged Trump's nomination for the Nobel Peace Prize, citing his 'prevention of a nuclear war' in South Asia." BT. "At the G7 Leaders' Summit in Kananaskis, Alberta, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney held talks with PM Modi and both leaders agreed to designate new high commissioners," and "agreed to resume full diplomatic services, ending the thaw between the two countries, triggered by Canadian allegations that India agents were involved in the killing of NIA-designated terrorist Hardeep Singh Nijjar outside a gurdwara in Canada in Canada in 2023." ET. But, "India is a perpetrator of foreign interference, Canada's intelligence said in a report published yesterday, just after India's and Canada's prime ministers vowed to strengthen ties at a global summit hosted by Canada." Reuters. The timing may be deliberate, to remind India that it must be ready to accept responsibility if the investigation proves Indian involvement in the murder. Mr Modi has visited Cyprus and Canada and is visiting Croatia "to thank partner countries for their 'steadfast support' to India in its fight against cross-border terrorism." TOI. "Cross-border terrorism" means across the border from Pakistan. So, if we keep harping on that phrase we cannot blame if Trump invites Mr Modi and Munir for talks on the same day, thus hyphenating the two (News18). Support for fight against terrorism does not mean support against Pakistan. Other countries are do not hyphenate Pakistan with terror. But, Pakistan with India.   

Financial liabilities.

"India's economy continues to demonstrate resilience amid global uncertainties, as the countries real GDP grew by 7.4% in the fourth quarter of FY25, bringing the full-year growth to 6.5%, surpassing expectations, according to a CareEdge Economic Pathways report." ET. "According to a report by CareEdge Ratings, net household savings is at 18.1% of gross domestic product (GDP) in fiscal 2024, lowest since FY17." "Financial savings at 11.4% are at their highest since FY21. Financial liabilities, due to higher debt, have risen to 6.2% in FY24, compared to 3.2% in FY14." NDTV. Mr Narendra Modi was elected prime minister for the first time in May 2014. wikipedia. FY14 extended from 1 April 2013 to 31 March 2014, and so was the last year before Mr Modi's reign. "The trend is characteristic of a developed economy and is not particularly alarming, said Rajani Sinha, chief economist at CareEdge." But, India is not a developed economy. "In 2007, India moved to the lower-middle income country and since then has remained there. India's per capita GDP stood at $2,390 in 2022." To become upper-middle income, per capita GDP has to reach $4,466-$13,485. To become a $30 trillion economy by 2047, "the Indian economy will have to grow at 9.7% per annum over FY24-FY47 in current USD terms." BT. India's merchandise exports fell 2.17% year-on-year (yoy) to $38.73 billion while imports fell 1.7% yoy to $60.61 billion. "Cumulatively, during Arpil-May 2025-26, exports increased 3.11% to $77.19 billion, while imports rose 8% to $125.52 billion." TT. However, "India's merchandise exports to the US rose by 16.93% to USD 8.83 billion in May, while imports dipped by 5.76% to USD 3.62 billion." During April-May, exports increased 21.78% to $17.25 billion, while imports rose 25.8% to $8,87 billion. ET. Not exactly music to US President Donald Trump's ears. "When Indian and American negotiators sat across the table in New Delhi from June 5 to 7," "The long-pending limited trade deal between India and the United States - which had simmered unresolved since Trump's first tenure - was back on the table, but under new political compulsions and strategic calculations. India and the US aim to double bilateral trade to $500 billion by 2030," wrote Anilesh S Mahajan. India cannot agree to US demands on less control on US tech firms, more intellectual property rights for US pharmaceuticals, higher imports of US agricultural produce and international arbitration in case of trade disputes. Which essentially means that India cannot concede to any US demands. Already the US is to impose a 3.5% tax on remittances by Indians living there. In 2023-24 total remittance from the US was $32 billion. ET. At the moment the Iran-Israel war is unlikely to have any major impact on the Indian economy but, if the conflict affects oil supply, prices could rise sharply and cause a spike in inflation. ET. If the US increases tariffs on Indian products, trade deficit and current account deficit could go up. The rupee could come under pressure. A weaker rupee will make inflation worse. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has cut its policy rate by a cumulative 100 basis points in 2025 (HT), and transferred an eye-watering Rs 2.69 trillion dividend to the government for the last financial year (ET) so will it cope with any sudden fall in the rupee? Hope we don't have to find out. Already people are borrowing to spend. We don't want to be left holding the bag (Collins).

     

Mr Modi in Canada.

Prime Minister Mark Carney of Canada will host leaders of Italy, US, France, Germany, UK and Japan in Kananaskis, Alberta. "The summit was set to be a test of his ability to meet three lofty goals he advanced for Canada - taking a leadership role on the global stage, becoming the strongest G7 economy and weaning off US dependency." BBC. With a tiny population of just over 40 million (worldometer) Canada's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) cannot possibly become bigger than other G7 countries but perhaps Carney is thinking of Luxembourg and Ireland whose GDP per capita is much higher than that of the US (wikipedia). "Weaning off US dependency" is impossible because the US accounts for 62.97% of Canada's total trade, with the European Union (EU) being a distant second with just 10.50%. wikipedia. Even an attempt at reducing trade with the US could lead to a serious recession. "Taking a leadership role on the global stage" could be successful because Canada does not share any of its borders with an enemy state. It's main land border is with the US and it shares a tiny negligible border on Hans Island with Greenland (and hence with the Kingdom of Denmark) and a maritime border with "France's overseas collectivity of Saint Pierre and Miquelon to the southeast". wikipedia. In fact, Canada's ties to the US could enlarge as "President Donald Trump has said he believes the US will gain control of Greenland," even though "Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen insisted Greenland was not for sale in a fiery phone call with the president." BBC.  Canada could become more closely intertwined with the US as "Donald Trump raised the matter of making Canada the US's 51st state in a March call with Carney." BBC. In which case, the G7 will become G6. "Canada's factories hit the brakes April 2025 as manufacturing sales plunged 2.8% to $69.6 billion," "linked to tariffs imposed by the US, hitting key industries, especially steel, aluminium and autos, just as plants were gearing up for spring production." ET. As a result, "Canadian Gen Z is confronting its toughest challenge in decades as they graduate into a hostile labor market." Youth unemployment aged 15-24 reached its highest level since the mid-1990s. ET. It seems that Carney placed a condition for accepting "continued law acceptance dialogue" and "issues of accountability" for the killing of Hardeep Singh Nijjar before inviting Prime Minister Narendra Modi to the G7 meeting. The Wire. However, the G7 meeting has lost its relevance because Trump is returning early to Washington in view of the war between Iran and Israel. CNN. Before indulging in schadenfreude, Mr Modi's disciples in India should remember that "Thousands of Indian nationals working in Canada, particularly under the Temporary Foreign Worker Program, are losing their legal work status." ET. So as not to be deported back to India, thousands of Indians have sought asylum claiming to be LGBTQ. CNBC. Why this desperation not to come back home? Why is Canada so much better to live in than India? It would be worth finding out.        

They are us.

"A Lufthansa Airlines flight from Frankfurt to Hyderabad was forced to return to Frankfurt Airport yesterday evening after receiving a bomb threat while still outside Indian airspace." "An official from Hyderabad Airport confirmed the diversion." Lufthansa Airlines said, "We did not receive a permit to land in Hyderabad and that's why the aircraft took a u-turn and returned." Zee. If there was a bomb threat to the aircraft, the German security services would be immediately involved and Lufthansa would not make a casual statement. If the bomb threat was against the airport, all flights should have been stopped. Very, very odd. "According to J&K (Jammu and Kashmir) Students Association (JKSA), more than 1,300 Indian students are stuck in the war in Iran." "JKSA convenor Nasir Khuehami said students are facing increasing insecurity." TOI. In 2023, there were 8,92,989 Indian students studying abroad, of whom 2,34,473 are in the US, followed by Canada with 2,33,532, and the United Kingdom with 1,36,921. HT. Most Indians in higher studies would be conversant in English, so these figures are understandable, but why are Kashmiris going to Iran? "In the wake of the gruesome killings of 26 tourists and a local Muslim in Baisaran Valley of Pahalgam," "Faced with harassment, assault, and open threats in at least 17 incidents targeting Kashmiri students, hundreds of them were forced to leave their exams mid-semester and return to their homeland." Kashmir Times. On 5 August 2019, Article 370, which gave a special status to J&K, was abrogated and J&K came under the Indian Constitution like other states. wikipedia. This also means that Kashmiris are fully Indian citizens, with the right to live, work and study in any part of India in complete safety and with no fear of being terrorised by brainless goons. "Punjabi musician Sidhu Moosewala was shot dead by unidentified assailants in his car on 29 May 2022 in Jawaharke village of Mansa at the age of 28." wikipedia. Moosewala "spotlighted the darker undercurrents of India's Punjab region - gangster culture, unemployment, and political decay." His shooting was claimed by gangster Goldy Brar of the Lawrence Bishnoi gang. "Now 31, Bishnoi runs his syndicate from behind bars - with dedicated Instagram pages and a cult-like following." BBC. Brar is abroad and Bishnoi is in prison. But, According to the Association for Democratic Reforms (ADR), "Based on affidavits submitted by 512 of the 513 current women MPs and MLAs, the report said 143 - or 28% - have declared criminal cases against themselves." "Also, 78 women lawmakers (15%) are facing serious criminal charges, such as attempt to murder and even murder." ET. With such mayhem going on, why was a civilian flight asked to go back? If Hyderabad Airport had problems, why not land at another Indian airport? So many questions. No answer.     

Essential consumption.

"Data released by the National Statistics Office (NSO)...showed retail inflation, as measured by the consumer price index (CPI), slumped to 2.8% in May, below the 3.2% in April." " Food inflation eased to nearly 1% in May, with a sharp decline of 79 points during the month compared to April." TOI. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has already anticipated the fall in the rate of inflation by announcing a "jumbo" cut of 50 basis points (bps) in its policy rate and a 100 bps cut in the Cash Reserve Ratio of banks, starting on 6 September, which is expected to release Rs 2.5 trillion into the banking system, despite already adding "Rs 9.5 trillion to durable liquidity", according to Governor Sanjay Malhotra. The 2.8% rise in inflation in May is on top of a 4.8% rise in the same month in 2024, which was on top of a 4.3% rise in 2023, 7.0% in 2022, 6.3% in 2021 and a 6.3% rise in May 2020. rateinflation.com. Since inflation compounds year-on-year, any rise in inflation just worsens the purchasing power of households. It, however, is a great boon for the government as the average monthly GST collections have risen from Rs 899 billion in 2017-18 to Rs 1.84 trillion in 2024-25 (Tata nexarc). Not surprising that, "Private consumption in the Indian economy moderated slightly in the fourth quarter (January-March 2025) of FY25, according to a recent report by the Bank of Baroda." The RBI's Consumer Confidence Survey in January 2025 showed that 64.4% of the 6081 respondents said that their expenditure had risen more than income, with "More than 40% of the respondents saw their spending rising while their income remained the same, while the remainder saw spending rise or remain the same while incomes fell." Essential spending has risen faster than non-essential spending, wrote Roshan Kishore. As a result of the mismatch in expenditure and income, the share of personal loans in the Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) has doubled between 2011-12 and 2024-25, wrote Kishore. Rising prices helped, "Indian corporate profits hit a remarkable 17-year high in F25, with Nifty-500 companies achieving a profit to GDP ratio of 4.7%, according to a report by Motilal Oswal." "Nifty-500 companies demonstrated, resilience with 10.5% year-on-year profit growth in FY25, building upon FY24's 30.5% increase and achieving a five-year CAGR of 30.3%." TOI. Profits are being generated by raising prices and not by increasing volumes, as "India's soft industrial momentum, a widening trade gap, and early signs of business caution warrant close tracking as H2 2025 unfolds, according to a report by LLama Research." "The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) has slowed to 2.7%, due to weakness in mining, manufacturing and electricity sectors." ET. If manufacturing is soft there will be lower demand for minerals and electricity. It's logical. With the RBI hacking interest rates, companies will be able to borrow at lower rates to pay back previous debt borrowed when rates were higher. That will increase their profits even further and possibly increase tax collections. Companies profit on household debts. Greed is good. Reddit.      

A tiny window.

"Israel launched a series of airstrikes against Iran early yesterday morning local time, targeting locations it said were related to Iran's nuclear program," and killing the chief of the Iranian Armed Forces Mohammad Hossein Bagheri, as well as the commander-in-chief of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Hossein Salami. Two nuclear scientists, Fereydoun Abbasi-Davani and Mohammad Mehdi Tehranchi were killed. CNN. On 15 May, "US President Donald Trump says that Iran has 'sort of' agreed to the terms of a nuclear deal with the United States." "Earlier, an adviser to Iran's Supreme Leader told NBC News that Tehran was willing to make concessions on its nuclear program in exchange for the lifting of sanctions." BBC. "Saudi Arabia's defence minister delivered a blunt message to Iranian officials in Tehran last month (April): take Donald Trump's offer to negotiate a nuclear agreement seriously because it presents a way to avoid the risk of war with Israel." "Trump had unexpectedly announced just over a week earlier that direct talks were taking place with Tehran, aimed at curbing Iran's nuclear program in return for sanctions relief." Reuters. For Israel, this is a tiny window of opportunity it may never again get in the future. In September 2024, "At least 32 people, including two children, were killed and thousands more injured, many seriously, after communication devices, some used by the armed group Hezbollah, dramatically exploded across Lebanon." On the first day pagers exploded after receiving messages from Hezbollah's leadership and the next day walkie-talkies, purchased by the Hezbollah five months previously, exploded killing 20.  BBC. Since 7 October 2023, when Hamas attacked Israel, killing 1,195 people and taking 250 hostages (wikipedia), Israel has been relentless in its attacks on Hamas fighters and leadership in Gaza. One year after the attack, till October 2024, "Israel claims it has killed 17,000 gunmen out of Hamas' 25,000 to 30,000 fighters, but detailed reports identify only nearly 8,500 military fatalities." ACLED. As Gaza has been reduced to rubble, "On the streets of Gaza, more and more Palestinians are expressing open defiance against the armed group that's ruled the strip for almost 20 years. BBC. The best opportunity is that Trump is president and not the anti-Israel Barack Hussein Obama and Joe Biden. In 2015, "The Bethlehem-based news agency Ma'an has cited a Kuwaiti newspaper report,..that US President Barack Obama thwarted an Israeli military attack against Iran's nuclear facilities in 2014 by threatening to shoot down Israeli jets before they could reach their targets in Iran. Following Obama's threat, Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu was forced to abort the planned attack." Israel National News. This could be the beginning of the end of Islam because, as Imam Suyuti explained that Allah "gave the Ummah a choice between another 1000 years or 500 years depending on whether they could maintain their religion in front of Allah, but since Islam began to decline after the first 1000 years Allah only granted them another 500 years." ghayb.com. So, Islam is to survive a total of 1500 al-Hijri years. The al-Hijri year 1446 is to end on 26 June 2025. wikipedia. "The Hijri date 1.1.1500 corresponds to the Gregorian date of Friday, November 27, 2076. datehijri.com. Friday, or Yawm al-Jum'ah is the day of prayers for all Muslims. wikipedia. What an auspicious day for Islam to end. Al-Hamdulillah.       

Conditional invite.

 After meetings in Egypt, Ethiopia, South Africa and Qatar, "India's response to the Pahalgam massacre - precise and proportionate strikes from May 7-10 - was clearly understood. There was no skepticism, no demand for proof of Pakistan's complicity." "Crucially none equated or 'hyphenated' India and Pakistan," and "the aim of the global outreach was not to win approval," wrote ex-envoy Syed Akbaruddin. On 22 April 2025, terrorists shot 26 civilians at Pahalgam in Kashmir, of whom 24 were Hindu tourists, one was Christian and one was a Kashmiri Muslim. wikipedia. On 07 May, India launched retaliatory attacks on Pakistan, named operation Sindoor. pib.gov.in. 'Sindoor' is a vermilion powder applied in the hair parting by married Hindu women and is wiped off as a sign of widowhood. Since all the victims were men, the name implies revenge for wiping the vermilion of our women. Evocative. The delegation visiting Guyana, Panama, Colombia, Brazil and the US "strove to underscore India's zero tolerance of cross-border terrorism," and "Another vital goal was to impress on our international interlocutors Pakistan's complicity in such acts of terror and its malign nurturing of terror groups." "The ultimate objective of this outreach was to garner global support for India's counterterrorism efforts," wrote MP Shashi Tharoor. While Mr Akbaruddin did not seek to "win approval", Mr Tharoor wanted to "garner global support". Seek support in the Americas but not in Africa or the Middle East. Different strokes for different folks. Collins. 'India's outlook resonated far more strongly with American lawmakers," and "My delegation has come away from its mission immensely satisfied," said Mr Tharoor. Three cheers, and more. But the support came to an abrupt end when "The Trump Administration invited Pakistan Army Chief Field Marshall Asim Munir to attend the US Army Day celebrations on June 14." DH. In April, this same Munir said, "You have to narrate to your children so that they don't forget it when our forefathers thought we were different from Hindus in every possible aspect of life." "We are two nations, we are not one nation." Hatred against Hindus, not India. US General Michael 'Erik' Kurilla praised Pakistan as a "phenomenal partner in the counter-terrorism world". ET. "Phenomenal" "counter-terrorism", after Mr Tharoor explained Pakistan's "malign nurturing of terror groups". Speaking different languages? "Prime Minister Narendra Modi's invitation to the upcoming G7 outreach meeting in Canada next week comes after significant understanding with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, including a commitment to law enforcement as per reports in the Canadian media." "A federal Liberal source told The Toronto Star that Carney had placed 'conditions' on the invitation extended to the Indian prime minister." The Wire. Why react angrily to former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau (BBC) while eating humble pie with Carney. Who knows, Munir might be there. A group photo with Munir. No conditions on Munir.