Frivolous may be, not nefarious.

"For the first time since 2009, India has become the leading source of international students in the United States," as "During the 2023-24 academic year, over 331,602 Indian students pursued higher education at US institutions representing a significant 23% jump from the previous year." Graduate student enrollment increased 19% to 196,567 and Indian students in Optional Practical Training (OPT) jumped 41% to 97,556. ET. "Indian students' contribution to the US economy in 2023 was significant, generating $11.8 billion, as per the International Student Economic Impact 2023." TOI. At an exchange rate of over Rs 84 to the dollar  (xe.com), students studying in the US are costing the Indian economy over Rs 930 billion. "Vice President of India, Jagdeep Dhankar, compared the rising trend of Indian students pursuing foreign education to a 'disease'," and "pointed out that in 2024 alone, around 1.3 million students going overseas for higher education drained approximately $6 billion from India's foreign exchange reserves." TOI. Those who are not accepted as students try to enter the US illegally with the help of people smugglers. "As per a Reuters investigation, one route starts in West Africa, with migrants paying up to $10,000 for multi-stop commercial flights to Nicaragua before continuing by land to the US. The second route, serving migrants from India, offers charter flights to central America and overland transfers to the US border for between $72,000 and $96,000 per person, with full payment often due after arrival in the US." TOI. People are paying from Rs 5.7 million to over Rs 8.0 million, an enormous sum in India, to enter the US illegally with the risk of being deported if caught. Why? Because, "A video of an Indian truck driver's 5-bedroom house in the US was shared on social media." HT. On the other hand, "Vir Das recently drew attention to the story of an Indian taxi driver in the US who holds an impressive background as an IIT Bombay graduate with a PhD and a former scientist. TOI. Donald Trump has won the presidential election with the promise of deporting all illegal migrants. NBC. Indians may also be caught in the net. Meanwhile, the FBI has issued 'wanted posters' of Vikash Yadav in Punjabi and Hindi, having earlier issued similar posters in English. Yadav is accused of masterminding a plot to kill US citizen Khalistani Gurpatwant Singh Pannun but Indian authorities have informed the US that he was in jail for armed robbery and is currently out on bail. TOI. "A Delhi court...granted personal exemption to Vikash Yadav from appearing in court," as his lawyers stated that, "False and frivolous allegations have been leveled against the applicant...exposing the applicant to serious threat to his life from nefarious elements." TN. Not wise to label US authorities as "nefarious elements". "More than a dozen Indian firms and two Indian citizens were sanctioned by US authorities...for 'aiding' the Russian war against Ukraine." Mint. An angry Trump could start by deporting Indians and increasing sanctions. Tit-for-tat sanctions against the US? Probably not a good idea.

Luxury from vegetables.

"Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Monday (yesterday) said that the current bank interest rates are a pain for borrowers and stressed the need for more affordable rates, particularly as businesses seek to expand." ET. Strange, because there seems to be no dearth of money for investment in India as initial public offerings (IPO) have been oversubscribed many times over. "The outlook for the Indian IPO market remains promising, with Pantomath Capital projecting that domestic companies could raise over Rs 1.5 trillion through IPOs in the next 12 months, signaling continued activity and strong investor interest ahead." ET. Also, "Promoter stake sales in the Indian equity market have reached multi-year highs," as "Retail investors, primarily through mutual funds, have been significant buyers of the stake sold by promoters." "According to a recent report by...Kotak Institutional Equities, promoters of 37 NSE 500 companies sold Rs 874 billion in the first half of the current year, marking the highest level in the past five years." Mint. All that money could be used for business expansion. Unless they want to borrow cheaply to buy assets. "Following a banner year for luxury car sales last year when several high-end car makers registered record sales, 2024 so far also been a positive year for high-performance vehicles and high-end SUVs." TOI. "Housing sales in India hit an 11-year high of 173,000 units between January and June, according to a report by global real estate consultants Knight Frank. The luxury housing segment contributed to around 41% of the real estate sector's sales growth from January to June." Mint. "A total of 25 ultra-luxury homes priced more than Rs 400 million were sold in Mumbai, Hyderabad, Gurugram and Bengaluru in the first eight months of 2024 for a collective sales value of approximately Rs 24.43 billion, Anarock data showed." HT. "It illuminates the country's plight, with its central bank constrained by high inflation from easing interest rates in response to signs of a slowing economy." Because, "For want of control over some vegetable prices, India's economic growth is suppressed." Mint. However, in August, "This being so, targeting inflation stripped of volatile fuel and fuel prices (to its core, i.e.) would surely ease RBI's job. While the idea of such a target switch is tempting, it is also inadvisable." High food prices hurt the poor badly and as the value of the rupee declines due to inflation, it "unfairly favors borrowers over lenders (and savers), since inflation reduces the real value of debt over time, unless loans are kept costly to compensate." Mint. Mint recommends that large private companies could bring inflation down by processing vegetables during seasonal production and then "could use their marketing skills and advertising resources to overcome another barrier: resistance to cooking with anything but fresh produce." But, if farmers get a lower price for vegetables they will stop producing them. Farmers anyway prefer to grow rice and wheat because "some states subsidize power and water, which helps ensure large scale cultivation," and "the Food Corporation of India, which is the procurement agency for the government, has an open-ended scheme under which it buys any amount of wheat and rice at the minimum support price (MSP)." "Therefore, there is a guaranteed return on capital," wrote Madan Sabnavis. A more effective idea is "The central government is likely to extend the term of RBI governor Shaktikanta Das, news agency Reuters reported." HT. That should bring down interest rates. You get what you give.    

Two months for peace.

"US President-elect Donald Trump has said his administration will focus on ending the Russia-Ukraine war, as he lamented the killing of people in the conflict." TOI. "Trump's re-election has the potential to upend the almost three-year conflict between Russia and Ukraine, throwing into question Washington's multibillion- dollar support for Kyiv," although, "Trump has not said how he intends to strike a peace deal on Ukraine or what terms he would propose." ET. It should be easy. All Ukraine has to do is to renounce membership of NATO and Russian President Vladimir Putin will immediately pull his troops back. Apparently, "Russia was ready to end the war and withdraw its troops in exchange for Ukrainian neutrality just a few months after the invasion began and was refused partly because of ex-British PM Boris Johnson, who pressured Kyiv into continuing the fight, David Arahamiya, the leader of the Ukraine's ruling party confirmed...on November 24," European Conservative. "Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky says he is certain the war with Russia will 'end sooner' than it otherwise would have once Donald Trump becomes US President." "Trump has consistently said his priority is to end the war...and what he describes as a drain on US resources in the form of military aid to Kyiv." BBC. However, lame duck Biden has deliberately escalated the war just two months before Trump will be sworn in on 20 January 2025 (BBC). "US President Joe Biden has allowed the first long-range US missiles by Ukraine to intensify its strikes on Russia, US officials said." TOI. Whether he is trying to trigger a severe Russian response with heavy Ukrainian casualties, producing such anger in European countries, that Trump will not be able to end the war, or he is trying to reward defense firms, or he is trying to prevent an investigation into the shady dealings of his odious son in Ukraine (NBC), possibly to finance his drug addiction (BBC), we do not know. "Shares of the biggest defense companies, which have handily beat the benchmark S&P stock index for the last two years, are expected to keep rising, according to Wall Street estimates." Reuters. Trump also wants to end the killing in the Middle East. That should be easy as well. All Hamas has to do is to release all remaining hostages and the war will stop instantly. Israel believes Hamas is still holding 97 hostages out of the 251 it had originally kidnapped. BBC. But Hamas is using the hostages, little children in schools and the sick in hospitals as human shields, as the cowards try to hide from Israeli attacks. "Throughout his campaign, Trump has vowed to bring peace to the region." "International mediators from the US, Egypt and Qatar have tried unsuccessfully to bring about a lasting cease-fire. Yet Trump has repeatedly urged Israel to 'finish the job' and destroy Hamas - but hasn't said how." AP. Will Biden try another of his nasty tricks to stop peace in Gaza, as he has done against Ukraine? He still has two months in office before the world is rid of him. For good.   

Ratings bias.

"Today, India is the world's fifth-largest and fastest-growing global economy." "Over the past decade, a majority government has implemented major reforms to fast-track growth, recapitalise banks and clampdown on NPAs." And yet, "S&P and Fitch have held on to a BBB rating for India while Moody's continues to rate India at Baa3." "These are the lowest possible sovereign credit ratings and indicate a high credit risk profile." Forbes. "India's credit rating suffers from prejudice, Fed elections and bias and credit rating agencies need to relook at it, NK Singh chairman of the 15th Finance Commission said." ET. "Questioning the three big global rating agencies for keeping India's rating static at the lowest investment grade for the last 15 years despite it moving up the ladder from 12th largest to become the fifth largest economy, Finance Ministry economists said agencies...are biased." FE. However, "CareEdge has assigned a long-term foreign currency rating of BBB- to India, two notches higher than what's provided by other rating agencies," wrote Rajani Sinha. Attaboy CareEdge. A bloody nose to the furriners. Firstly, it is doubtful that the foreign rating agencies waste huge amounts of time and money just to insult India. They are probably trying to provide guidance to their own people. "Foreign investors' assets under custody in equity totaled Rs 71.08 trillion in October, down 8.8% from Rs 77.96 trillion a month ago." In contrast, total holdings of domestic investors increased to Rs 76.80 trillion. MC. So, foreign investors are definitely not biased against India. Secondly, "India is on track to increase its workforce from 423.73 million in 2023 to 457.62 million by 2028, reflecting a net gain of 33.89 million workers, a report said." ET. That will be more than the combined populations of the US at 346.130 million and Germany at 84.370 (worldometers). In fact, the increase of 33.89 million is more than the entire population of the continent of Australia at 26.812 million (worldometers). If 457.62 people just make pakodas, as Mr Modi suggested and Mr Amit Shah defended in Parliament (HT), India will probably become at least the third richest country in the world by GDP, behind just China and the US. Thirdly, "After long years of stasis, there seems to be a flurry of activity at the Union ministry of statistics and programme implementation (MoSPI). Long-delayed surveys have been released, New surveys are being planned." "A push for change has come from the top," wrote Pramit Bhattacharya. If the government is seen to be hiding facts, can't blame foreigners if they are more careful. Finally, The difference in education between India and China. A new paper by Nitin Kumar Bharti and Li Yang finds that India has a preponderance of social-science graduates at the bachelor degree level, whereas "China's higher share of engineering and vocational graduates, combined with a higher share of primary and secondary graduates, lends itself more readily to a focus on manufacturing," the authors say. ET. And so, "India's goods trade deficit with China widened to $57.83 billion during April-October from $51.12 billion, according to data from the commerce and industry ministry." Mint. "Which area has [India] invented? Please give me an example," asked Mr NR Narayan Murthy, co-founder of Infosys. MC. Mr Murthy is very much Indian. Poor education, poor information and no innovation. Foreigners are not biased.      

One millionaire every week.

"President-elect Donald Trump has appointed long-time adviser Stephen Miller, known for his strong stance on immigration, as the deputy chief of policy for his new administration." TOI. So what? "Indian nationals, who hold a significant portion of H-1B visas, may face several challenges due to Miller's restrictive stance," and "These potential changes may discourage US companies form hiring Indian tech talent, limiting opportunities for those seeking employment in the US." India does not need the US. "Global brokerage Morgan Stanley, in its 'The New India: Why this is India's decade' report, said that the country is poised for an economic boom in the coming years, driven by factors such as offshoring, manufacturing investments, energy transition and advanced digital infrastructure. These drivers are expected to propel India to become the world's third-largest economy and stock market by 2030" TOI. In September 2023, "Union Minister of Education (MoS) Subhas Sarkar said...that India is poised to become a global knowledge superpower under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi." Indian tech experts should be able to earn millions sitting at home. In addition, "Trump announced the former acting Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) director Tom Homan would serve as the administration's 'Border Czar'." "A caravan of thousands of migrants traveling through Mexico with the hope of reaching the US has shrunk to about half its original size," as "Trump clinched the presidential election after a campaign that promised large-scale deportations of undocumented migrants and a return to fast-tracked deportations to Mexico." Reuters. Each year thousands of Indians try to enter the US, Canada and Europe illegally through the 'donkey route'. "A record 96,917 Indians were apprehended while unlawfully crossing into the US between October 2022 and September 2023." TOI. "The Gujarati exodus is a particular surprise. Why do so many people from a state where millionaires are being created every week want to risk imprisonment by trying to enter America illegally?" asked Vir Sanghvi. By 2022-23, "Gujarat's NSDP (Net State Domestic Product) soared to Rs 19.46 trillion, while Bihar's NSDP lagged at Rs 6.82 trillion." The reason is that "States like Gujarat, Karnataka and Haryana benefited substantially from Union government-backed projects," while "Bihar, Odisha and West Bengal have been systematically denied an equitable share of centrally sponsored projects, leading to their slower economic growth," wrote Sudhakar Singh & Sarish Tripathi. "For many of the government's critics, Gujarat has come to represent everything they abhor about the BJP." Which raises the question: "If resentment of Gujaratis - because we have such a  good deal - is justified then why are so many of us trying to get the hell out of Gujarat and India itself?" asks Sanghvi. And, if Gujarat is hell, despite being the only state with bullet trains (TOI), what is the rest of India? Worse than hell?    

It's not just food.

"Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal called upon RBI to cut rates, arguing that targeting food price inflation through interest rates was an 'absolutely flawed theory'. His statement came after RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das warned of upside risks to inflation from factors like food prices and said that a rate cut should not be taken for granted." TOI. The year-on-year consumer price index (CPI) inflation rate for October 2024 was 6.21%, while food price inflation came in at 10.87% (Provisional). pib.gov.in. "In September, inflation stood at 5.49%, which was a nine-month high." "Core inflation, which excludes food and fuel prices, remained stable at close to 3.7% in October." Reuters. It is not just food inflation as the minister says. The Indian rupee was around 60 to the US dollar in 2014 (Thomas Cook) and has since fallen to Rs 84.45 to one dollar this morning (xe.com). That is a fall of over 40%. The fall in the exchange rate of the rupee increases the price of imports and results in higher prices of consumer goods. The RBI has been supporting the rupee by selling dollars. Our foreign exchange reserves dropped to $682.13 billion on 1 November (ET) after climbing to $704.89 billion on 27 September (Reuters). "The Ministry of Finance's latest monthly review acknowledged consumer demand was softening." "The spending splurge post-Covid and the high profits made from exorbitantly priced premium goods saw a couple of good years for companies." "They got greedy and hiked prices." "White goods prices have seen repeated hikes. No home buyer in a major city can find a decent flat for less than Rs 5 million. The slowing of consumption today is nothing but pushback by consumers," wrote Gurbir Singh. If inflation is not a problem, as the minister says, why has the Dearness (inflation) Allowance for the pampered highly-paid government employees been hiked to 53% of basic salary? HT. Core inflation, which measures the change in prices of goods and services excluding those of food and energy sectors (Investopedia), "has averaged 3.5% in 2024-25. It averaged 6.2% and 5.3% in 2022-23 and 2023-24, respectively. So RBI has managed to control the non-food and non-fuel part of inflation." High food inflation may result in demand for higher wages. Low interest rates during the pandemic changed the savings and investing behavior and encouraged people to look for higher returns by investing their savings in stocks. If interest rates are lowered more money will flow into stock markets and bank deposits will drop. Banks will then have less money to lend for long term borrowing. This will hamper growth, wrote Vivek Kaul. If inflation continues to remain high people will be tempted to buy gold. "Analysing returns of financial assets between June 1999 and March 2021 shows that gold is an effective hedge against inflation. Inflation-adjusted or real returns on gold has always been positive over this period," wrote Pramit Bhattacharya. Finally, the government can easily bring down the cost of food by reducing the exorbitant taxes on fuel. Food is transported by trucks and tax on diesel is 50% of its retail value. cleartax.in. Instead of hectoring the RBI the government should take responsibility. You can't have your food and eat it. Can you? 

Illogical, illegal and inconvenient.

"Delhi and its neighboring cities are experiencing pollution levels that are at least 30-35 times the safe limit recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO). Every year, Delhi and northern states battle hazardous air during the winter months of October to January due to plummeting temperatures, smoke,dust, low wind speed, vehicular emissions and crop stubble burning." Air Quality Index (AQI) level below 100 is considered safe for breathing but levels in parts of Delhi touched 500 yesterday. BBC. It is not just the air, our water is poisoned as well. "Toxic foam covers the Yamuna River in Kalindi Kunj (Delhi)." "Yamuna is a tributary of river Ganga, which...passes through states like Uttarakhand and Uttar Pradesh (UP)." Untreated sewage discharged into the river in UP is polluting it severely. Mint. "An investigative report by The New York Times, published on 09 November, has claimed that the waste-to-energy (WTE) plant in southeast Delhi's Okhla is exposing one million people of the area to highly toxic emissions containing cadmium, lead, arsenic and other deadly substances. Even the residual ash from the plant contains hazardous pollutants, which are dumped in a residential area in the neighborhood, it said." TOI. Why was the NYT monitoring pollution in Delhi? It is possible that the NYT was alerted secretly by Indians, terrified of being arrested and persecuted by a vengeful government. Dozens of opposition politicians have been arrested on unproven charges. The Wire. The NYT investigated AI and soil samples from 2019-2023 and found toxic substances which can cause "a rare form of Parkinson's Disease, fetal problems, brain developmental disorders and bone, kidney and heart disease." Internal government reports showed that "the plant pumped as much as 10 times the legal amount of dioxins" used by the US in the Vietnam war. NYT. Adding to the noxious air, around 1100 trees were chopped down allegedly by the Delhi Development Authority (DDA) despite denial of permission by the Supreme Court. HT. The Court held the Lieutenant Governor of Delhi VK Saxena responsible for permitting the felling of trees by the DDA. The Hindu. The government has designed a Graded Action Plan (GRAP) which is enforced in four stages according to the severity of pollution. BS. The emphasis at every stage seems to be on punishing motor vehicles although 82% of PM2.5 emissions are caused by industrial activities and biomass burning by households for cooking and heating and only 7% of PM2.5 comes from automobiles, wrote Chandra Bhushan. Authorities want people to commute by buses to reduce the number of private vehicles in Delhi streets but the number of bus passengers has fallen from 2011-12. Irregular service and inconvenience are some reasons. Astonishingly, "a bus ride is nearly 15% more expensive than a car ride and 150% costlier than a twp-wheeler ride, making private transport more popular among the masses due to its affordability." The Print. A government plant is creating pollution, cutting trees is adding to it and buses are too expensive. They blame cars. Political expediency. Lying.