It's getting hot.

"India's retail inflation rose to 3.93% in May, driven by higher food and fuel costs, government data showed." "The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raised its inflation forecast for the current fiscal year to 5.1% from 4.6% earlier this month but kept rates on hold." Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and fuel costs, remained steady at 3.9%. Reuters. In March, "India's federal government retained its retail inflation target at 4%, within a comfort band of 2% to 6%, according to an official notification." Reuters. However, the RBI should not derive any comfort from the level of core inflation because its mandate is to target the consumer price index (CPI). The base year for measuring CPI inflation was changed from 2012 to 2024 to better reflect the changing patterns of consumer expenditure and the weights of the various items in the CPI were changed, with the weight of food and beverages sharply reduced from 42.62% in 2012 to 36.75 in 2024. Weights of housing, transport and personal care were increased slightly. finshots.in. "India's wholesale price inflation rose to 9.68% year-on-year in May," as "The data, the first print from the revised series with a base year 2022-23, showed inflation rose at the fastest pace in six months under comparable numbers calculated by the government under the new series." Reuters. In the wholesale price index (WPI), primary articles, which include agricultural produce and minerals, have a weight of 22.62%, fuel and power have a weight of 13.15%, while manufactured products are at 64.23%. Bajaj Finserve. While prices of agricultural products may fall if the harvest is abundant, prices of fuel, power and manufactured products never come down and are likely to feed into CPI inflation with a lag. India's agriculture is mostly dependent on natural rainfall but this year, "El Nino - the natural Pacific weather pattern that pushes up global temperatures - has officially begun, US scientists say." "Many forecasts suggest this could end up as a so-called 'super' El Nino, and even be among the strongest ever recorded." BBC. Ominously, although this year's monsoon started on 4 June, "Fresh imagery from European weather satellite Meteosat, US weather agency NOAA and ISRO's INSAT-3DS satellite has revealed an unusual picture for mid-June large parts of central, western and peninsular India are missing the dense cloud bands normally associated with an active monsoon." "According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), Central India recorded a rainfall deficit of around 65% between 4 June and 16 June," as "Several districts across Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and adjoining areas have received little or no rainfall during a period that is crucial for kharif sowing." news18.com. If the monsoon plays truant, food prices could rise and could even force greater import of necessary items like pulses and edible oil. In addition, According to the Desertification and Land Degradation Atlas of India published by Isro's Space Applications Centre, about 30% of India's geographical area - spanning 97.85 million hectares - is undergoing land degradation. Of this, a staggering 25% is experiencing desertification." HT. India is already providing free food grains every month to 813 million people from 1 January 2024 to 31 December 2028. MC. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Narendra Modi was greeted by Italian Prime Minister Georgia Meloni as "the most famous couple on Instagram". TOI. Hot El Nino, hot inflation and hot Instagram. The heat is on.