We have seen worse.

"Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman...said the country's economic fundamentals are strong, and compared to other emerging market economies, the Indian rupee is 'absolutely going fine' against the US dollar." DH. "The Finance Ministry's March Monthly Economic Review noted that economic activity remained robust up to February, supported by strong supply- and demand-side indicators, resilient domestic consumption, and sustained public capital expenditure." But, the Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran warned that "signs of moderation are beginning to emerge as shocks from the Israel-Iran conflict ripple through the economy." ET. "The #Lockdown is trending across India on social media platform X, with users expressing anxiety." and "some posts draw parallels with the 2016 demonetisation, others show long queues outside petrol pumps, fueling concerns of panic buying." ET. On 8 November 2016, the same day our BFF Donald Trump won his first term as President by defeating Hillary Clinton (wikipedia), Rs 1000 and Rs 500 notes were banned, as "Prime Minister Narendra Modi gave only four hours' notice that virtually all the cash in the world's seventh-largest economy would be effectively worthless" (BBC). This led to very long queues outside banks (shutterstock.com) and some died of heart attacks while waiting to exchange old notes for new ones (TNIE) probably due to stress. At 8 pm on 24 March 2020, Mr Modi announced a stringent lockdown with just 4 hours notice (cbc.ca), when there were only 519 confirmed cases of coronavirus with nine deaths at the time, causing great hardship for the citizens of India (BBC). In panic, people crammed into shops to buy essentials (The Quint), which could have spread the virus to a larger peopulation. As migrant workers lost their jobs and all public transport stopped, millions of families with little children were forced to walk hundreds of miles back to their villages, sleeping by the roadside and surviving on food and water from local people. TOI. The government did nothing. Following lockdown, from April 2020-January 2021, India's combined merchandise and services exports were $394.96 billion, 10.89% lower than $443.24 billion in the same period in 2019-20, while combined imports were $400.84 billion in 2020-21, 22.10% lower than $514.57 billion in 2019-20. Trade deficit fell from $71.33 billion to $5.88 billion. pib.gov.in. When Russia-Ukraine conflict started in February 2014 (wikipedia) there were predictions of a rise in inflation as supplies of oil, fertilizers and minerals would be adversely affected (grm.institute). In the event, India's exports to Russia increased from $1.8 billion in 2011-12 to $3.3 billion in 2021-22, while imports increased from $4.8 billion in 2011-12 to $9.9 billion in 2021-22. Trade with Ukraine increased from $3 billion to $3.4. India Exim Bank. Taking advantage of deep discounts offered by Russia, India imported crude oil worth $144 billion since the start of the conflict. NDTV. Covid lasted two years. Ukraine conflict is still ongoing. Yet, after only one month of the Iran conflict people are hysterical. Collective idiocy?        

There is no problem.

"Strong growth, low inflation and robust foreign exchange reserves will help India tide over the disruptions caused by the West Asia war, even as the energy crisis has made investors nervous, according to Ben Powell of BlackRock Investment." Mint. As a result of the nervousness, "Foreign investors are withdrawing funds from India at an unprecedented pace. In the 27 days of March alone, foreign portfolio investors sold equities worth over $13 billion (Rs 1.1 trillion), the largest monthly outflow on record." The rupee has fallen from Rs 83 per dollar in early 2024, and from 90.95 on 27 February 2026, to 94.65 per dollar on 30 March 2026. Ind Tod. Prof Ashima Goyal felt that, even with oil at $100 per barrel, India was in a "good space". "What we need to understand is if you deflated it by the GDP deflator or the consumer price index, then this $100 is equal to $56 today," and economic growth will be 7% in FY27 and 6% in FY28, she said. FPI "outflows in FY26, at $16.4 bn, are the highest in 28 years," "India is likely to have BoP (balance of payments) deficit for 3 successive years beginning in FY25 (before Gulf conflict), and possibly a capital account and current account deficit for the first time since 1991," and "India's goods and services trade deficit has expanded at $110 billion from $90 billion in the first 11 mths of current fiscal," wrote Soumya Kanti Ghosh. However, our macro fundamentals are strong so a Brics+ currency, instead of the dollar, and India's SFMS (Structured Financial Messaging System), possibly instead of the SWIFT, or Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (wikipedia) should manage the crisis. "India's central bank, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has proposed that BRICS countries link their respective official digital currencies to facilitate cross-border trade financing and tourism sector payments," to bypass the dollar. IDN. If digital currencies are linked how will the RBI manage the rupee's exchange rate? "The RBI's unorthodox move to steady the rupee by forcing banks to unwind foreign exchange positions beyond $100 million will prevent its slide towards 95," but "The move will also cause banks with large open positions to lose money." TOI. How can the RBI force private, and even foreign, banks to incur losses? Can banks sue the RBI? In 1991, the RBI had to pledge 47 tons of gold with the Bank of England and 20 tons with the Union Bank of Switzerland to raise $600 million and the Government of India required an emergency loan of $7 billion from the International Monetary Fund to deal with a BoP crisis. wikipedia. In the week ended 20 March 2026, the RBI sold gold worth $13.495 billion so that India's foreign exchange reserves dropped by $11.413 billion to $698.346 billion. whalesbook. In addition, the Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman expects the RBI to transfer Rs 3.16 trillion as dividend this year. MC. Will the RBI sell more gold to obey the FM? With assembly elections in Assam, West Bengal, Kerala and Tamil Nadu in one month's time (wikipedia), the government has cut excise duty on petrol and diesel by Rs 10 each, to keep retail prices unchanged, but has imposed a Rs 21.5 tax on exports of diesel and a Rs 29.5 on exports of aviation turbine fuel (ATF). newsonair.gov.in. Goodbye foreign oil companies. Before Bihar Assembly election in 2025, Prime Minister Narendra Modi transferred Rs 10,000 to bank accounts of 7.5 million women in Bihar at a cost of Rs 75 billion. pib.gov.in. Subsidies and cash transfers cost the Union government Rs 6.33 trillion in 023-24, up from Rs 2.76 trillion in 2018-19, wrote Aditya Sinha. Women of West Bengal, Kerala and Tamil Nadu may be expecting Rs 15-20,000 from Mr Modi before the elections. Sell more gold. No problem.       

Is RBI selling gold?

"India aims to attract USD 100 billion in investment and expand explorations acreage to 1 million sq km by 2030," as "India pitched a USD 100 billion upstream investment roadmap and positioned itself as a major destination for global capital at an outreach event on March 24, even as industry leaders warned of geopolitical risks and a complex energy transition." ET. Companies capable of such large investment may be government owned such as Saudi Aramco (Saudi Arabia), Total (France), Gazprom and Lukoil (Russia) and CNPC (China), while ExxonMobil, Chevron, Shell and BP are publicly owned with no government control. Quora. Offshore exploration is very expensive. So, will the government be able to change taxes at will, as it does at present? "The government...cut excise duty on petrol and diesel by Rs 10 per liter each," to keep retail prices constant, incurring a revenue loss of Rs 1.70 trillion if it lasts the full financial year. HT. At the same time, "India has reintroduced windfall taxes on fuel exports, setting a levy of Rs 21.50 per liter on diesel and Rs 29.50 on Aviation Turbine Fuel (ATF), according to a government order." ET. The Indian government has earned in excess of Rs 40 trillion from higher taxes on fuel since 2015 (ppac.gov.in) which has been a huge contribution to its revenue. While foreign companies may not care how India taxes its citizens, they will definitely object to any windfall tax as that will adversely affect their profits. "India's foreign exchange reserves declined by $11.4 billion to $698.3 billion for the week ended March 20, according to RBI data." "The fall was primarily driven by a sharp drop in gold reserves, even as foreign currency assets posted gains during the period." cnbctv18.com. The price of gold has dropped from an all-time high of $5,589.38 per ounce on 28 January 2026 (cbsnews.com) to around $4,538 this morning (in. investing.com). Although the government and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) are mum, is it possible that the RBI has sold $13.495 worth of gold from our reserves? "This liquidation outpaced a $2.127 billion rise in foreign currency assets, indicating the RBI may be using gold to manage external pressures or currency defense." "Analysts point out that the RBI's significant forward dollar commitments reduce the real availability of foreign currency assets, potentially pushing effective reserves below vital levels. The RBI's intervention in the spot market to support the rupee, estimated at tens of billions of dollars since late 2024, have limited its capacity to save reserves." whalesbook.com. Remittances from the Gulf, which contribute 38% to total remittances, could fall, putting further pressure on the rupee, according to SBI Funds Management. ET. Will India go bankrupt? It's time the 'godi (lapdog) media' (wikipedia) does what it is supposed to do. Inform the people. The truth.    

Freebies are doubly free.

"The Delhi government has scrapped its plans to procure two air-conditioned boats for VIPs and VVIPs at a cost of Rs 62 million and suspended two senior officials involved in the procurement, minister Parvesh Verma said." HT. The two boats were to be fully air-conditioned, with "a premium aesthetic look with concealed LED lights and ambient lighting", and "customized business class push-back VIP seats" "made of vegan leather with exquisite stitching". HT. It is good to know that our tax money was for "premium aesthetic look" of "vegan leather with exquisite stitching" and not for some proletariat eyesore. Members of Karnataka Legislative Assembly (MLAs) demanded free VIP tickets for Indian Premier League (IPL) cricket matches, with Congress MLA Vijayanand Kashappanavar "asserting that legislators are 'VIPs' who cannot be expected to queue like ordinary citizens." So what if, "Eleven lives were lost during last year's RCB victory celebrations, and despite multiple inquiries, there has been no closure, no accountability, no punishment." DH. Karnataka state assembly has a total of 224 seats (prsindia.org) and the Karnataka State Cricket Association has promised to provide 2 free tickets to each member as well as "a separate stand in the stadium". News18. Tamil Nadu is to hold elections to its assembly on 23 April 2026 (wikipedia), and so "AIADMK general secretary Edappadi K Palaniswami promised to distribute free refrigerators for all rice ration card holders," double "the monthly cash distribution for women from Rs 1,000 to Rs 2,000 and a one-time relief of Rs 10,000 to cushion the impact of rising prices." Free bus travel for men, same as women. TOI. Get elected by promising freebies and then use that for extorting free tickets for cricket matches. Costs nothing to the politician. So truly free. Meanwhile, "Over the past decade, a silent crisis has been unfolding in middle-class India." Because "borrowing has surged at an unprecedented rate," so that "Indians now carry one of the highest debt burdens in the world, excluding mortgages - surpassing even consumption-heavy economies like the US and debt-fuelled growth stories like China." "Today, non-housing household debt as a percentage of GDP stands at 32% in FY25," and "For borrowers caught in this cycle, the mathematics are brutal: Nearly 40% of annual income is now consumed by debt servicing alone." The Print. Citizens have to suffer in enforced silence because, "The Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) is now able to directly ensure takedown of news, analysis, comedy, satire or commentary (loosely dubbed as 'content') from the internet." !,11,185 items were blocked in 2024-25, at an average of 290 per day. The Wire. Free freebies as bribes for votes. Free freebies for politicians. No worries - it's doubly free. Citizens will be censored. At 290 per day.    

Can't stop now.

Iran has laid down conditions for ending the war. A complete end to US and Israel's aggression, payment of compensation for damages, ending war on every resistance group and recognizing Iran's sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz. NDTV. Apparently, Iran is drafting a new law to charge a toll on every ship that passes through the Strait of Hormuz. Zee News. These conditions should be totally unacceptable for any nation on earth. 'Ending war on every resistance group' means that terrorist groups like the Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis will have a free hand to to attack any country without the fear of reprisal and Iran can charge punitive toll on ships of any country that disagrees with it. "The latest assessments from both Israel and the United States suggest that Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei is alive," but "The balance of power appears to favor the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), rather than Khamenei himself." The IRGC is controlling Khamenei. jpost.com. The IRGC position seems to be that, having killed up to 30,000 unarmed protesters in just two days in January 2026 (Time), they are willing to fight indefinitely regardless of how many Iranians are killed or how ordinary citizens suffer. They are probably encouraged by US News media, which admire Iran's strength and the way it has blocked the Strait of Hormuz (CNN), while taunting US capabilities under President Donald Trump. If Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz it will be controlling Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar and United Arab Emirates (UAE) because all their trade must pass through the Strait. Map. Except Iraq, with Arab Shias making up about 60% of its population  (wikipedia) and Bahrain with 51% Sunni and 49% Shia (wikipedia), all other countries have large Sunni majorities. It is impossible to imagine that Sunni Arab states accepting domination by Shia Persians. It is no wonder that Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has been urging Trump to continue the conflict. TOI. Saudi Arabia has built a 1200 Km pipeline from its oilfields in the East of the country to its Red Sea Port of Yanbu which is now loading tankers. ET. Problem with that is that Yemen is at the outlet from the Red Sea into the Indian Ocean and the Houthis may target ships to support Iran. The other solution would be to build a canal to connect the Gulf, from near Kuwait through Saudi Arabia and Oman, to the Indian Ocean like the Suez Canal, which connects the Red Sea and the Mediterranean  through Egypt and the Panama Canal which connects the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans through Panama (Britannica). But that would take years and cost hundreds of billions of dollars. Finally, "In numerous ayat of the Qur'an, Allah makes clear." that "But whoever deliberately slays a committed Muslim, his requital shall be Hell, therein to abide; and Allah condemns him, and will reject him and will prepare for him awesome suffering." Crescent. Since the IRGC and Basij (wikipedia) are already condemned by Allah just wipe them out. Or supply AK47 guns and RPGs to the protesters and teach them to use them. At least they can defend themselves against IRGC and Basij psychopaths. Must win against Iran. Or else, the Gulf will be closed forever.     

Jobs before gas.

"Oil and Natural Gas Corporation or ONGC is expected to spend about $18-20 billion for hiring deep-water drilling rigs for what could become its largest-ever oil exploration program." "Last month, ONGC floated a tender for these rigs as it looks to accelerate hydrocarbon exploration under the government's Samudra Manthan mission." TOI. It may seem a lot of money but rent for, "Basic offshore oil rigs like jack-ups typically start from $200,000 to $400,000 per day on average for exploratory wells, whereas the most sophisticated deepwater rigs like drillships could cost around $500,000 to $800,000 on a daily basis." Offshore drilling rigs start at $500 million to buy and drillships cost $1 billion to manufacture, so will cost even more. SOSS. Once the rig is in position, drilling may take 15 days to 12 months (Cosco) but there is no guarantee of finding oil at first drilling. "Offshore deep water frontier: 5-15% commercial discovery rate." Offshore established deep water provinces over 20% discovery rate. Quora. Offshore drilling rigs are manufactured abroad (Marine Insight) and will need to be transported to India, although Drillmec has a joint venture with KMOC Kakinada Marine and Offshore Complex Ltd. India (DDT). India imports 90% of our requirement of Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) and most of it passes through the Strait of Hormuz. The government has invoked the Essential Commodities Act and diverted most of the LPG from the commercial sector to domestic use. "The hotel and restaurant industry, alongside the myriad roadside dhabas (restaurants that serve Indian food) and eateries that dot our highways, provides a lifeline for an estimated 130 million people," wrote Anand Neelakantan. "The gig economy, often touted as the future of Indian labor, is currently in a state of free fall. Over 12 million delivery partners, the backbone of platforms like Zomato and Swiggy, have seen their daily orders drop by 60%." A household can use an electric cooker but restaurants cannot. "By prioritizing the domestic cylinder (of cooking gas) as a political tool, the state is ensuring that while the home stove may stay lit, the kitchen where the breadwinner earns his wage remains empty." "Data from the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell (PPAC) shows" that "In the first half of FY 2025-26, India produced 6,219 thousand metric tonnes (TMT) of LPG, while consumption stood at 16,200 TMT. Imports filled the gap at 10,731 TMT, translating into an import dependency of around 62%." TOI. The irony is that since 1970 India was said to have a total coastline of 7516.60 Km but using new methodology "the length of India's coastline has been recalculated and is now 11098.81 Km. (shipmin.gov.in. Just a couple of months ago, Reserve Bank of India Governor Sanjay Malhotra proclaimed that India's economy was in a "rare Goldilocks period" with high growth and low inflation. DD. That was because of the low price of fuel. Will India produce enormous offshore oil and gas? Once the conflict stops prices of oil and gas will drop. Perhaps, we will quietly go back to imports. Until the next time.   

No more Covid, please.

Speaking about the shortage of oil and gas, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said, "During the Covid pandemic, 140 crore (1.4 billion) Indians showed the world how mature our nation is. I am confident that as a nation, we will navigate every situation successfully." The Telegraph. It is shocking that he does not care that, "India likely recorded almost two million extra deaths, in 2021, the deadliest year of Covid-19 pandemic, than it did in the preceding few years." HT. In 2021, a study found, "The Covid-19 pandemic caused excess deaths in India to cross more than four million." "India has officially recorded more than 414,000 Covid-19 deaths so far." BBC. Mocking the dead and the grieving. Unknown thousands died because of a shortage of oxygen as desperate relatives searched for hospital beds and social media was awash with people begging for oxygen cylinders (BBC). On 27 April 2021, "Officially there were seven Covid deaths in Gurgaon. But at the Madanpuri cremation ground, which has been designated for Covid deaths, there were so many bodies that cremations spilled over to the parking lots." TOI. The Holy River Ganga was full of bloated dead bodies  (BBC), possibly because the price of wood was too high for the poor. "The government said "no deaths due to lack of oxygen has been specifically reported by states." BBC. Hope the voters in Assam, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal, which are to hold assembly elections shortly (wikipedia), were paying attention. The Election Commission of India is empowered to appoint electoral officers at various levels but only in consultation with the State government. "It appears that the ECI has adopted an openly hostile posture, attempting to render incumbent Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee a lame duck by ordering wholesale transfers of officers holding key positions in West Bengal." DH. "At least three constitutional functionaries, including the president, have got involved in ruling party's everyday politicking." The Wire. As the constitutional head of state a sycophantic president can do a lot of damage. "On 25 June 1975, the then President Shri Fakhruddin Ali Ahmed issued the Emergency proclamation under Article 352, citing threats from internal disturbances." pib.gov.in. And "when it became certain that he would become India's first citizen, the Giani (Zail Singh) said, with undisguised glee and gratitude, that he would gladly sweep the ground that Indira Gandhi stepped on." The Telegraph. Observing that charges were "based on conjecture rather than evidence", Delhi Rouse Avenue Court discharged former Chief Minister of Delhi Arvind Kejriwal, Deputy Chief Minister Manish Sisodia and 22 others. DH. As a result of the fake charges, the BJP increased its tally in the assembly election in Delhi in 2025 to 48 seats from just 8 out of 70  (TOI). The BJP government in Assam has already distributed Rs 9,000 each to 4 million women at a cost of Rs 36 billion. ET. Mr Modi distributed Rs 10,000 each to 7.5 million women in Bihar in September 2025 at a cost of Rs 75 billion. TOI. He may have to beat these numbers in the opposition-controlled States of Kerala, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal. Will he? Hope voters reject Covid.   

All inclusive growth.

"Stocks rose and oil prices fell sharply after President Donald Trump...said the United States would postpone further strikes on Iran's energy infrastructure, pending the outcome of negotiations." CNN. "The Indians rupee opened stronger this morning (24 March), rising 34 paise to 93.64 against the US dollar, compared with the previous close of 93.98 per dollar." On 21 March, "So far this month, foreign portfolio investors have taken out Rs 936.98 billion from the stock market alone, data combined from NSDL and BSE showed." TOI. As foreign investors repatriate this money in dollars it puts downward pressure on the rupee. "Mutual funds have sold Indian government bonds at a record pace in March so far, " as, "Mutual funds have net sold government bonds worth Rs 356 billion ($3.82 billion) so far this month, a record for any month, clearing house data showed." Reuters. Large number of bonds for sale results in a drop in prices and a consequent rise in yields. "Indian bond yields surged the most in nearly 30 months and ended at their highest since January last year," as the "Yield on the 10-year benchmark government bond jumped 10 basis points to close at 6.83%, CCIL data showed." ET. Higher yield means higher cost of borrowing for the government which would increase the amount it pays in interest. Already, "Data from the Union Budget shows that the government will spend about Rs 14.04 trillion on interest payments, making it the biggest component of total expenditure," while spending on rural development will be Rs 2.73 trillion and on education just Rs 1.39 trillion. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has been buying up government bonds to support prices and lower yields. The RBI balance sheet has jumped an unprecedented Rs 5.58 trillion, from Rs 15.58 trillion in March 2025 to Rs 21.34 trillion on 28 February 2026. The RBI aggressively cut its policy rate by 125 basis points (bps), from 6.50% to 5.25% in 2025. indbiz.gov.in. This was done to increase liquidity and bring borrowing costs down. But liquidity has been tight because retail investors migrated to mutual funds from bank deposits in search of higher returns, credit growth has been higher than bank deposit growth (ET) and the RBI has been selling dollars, to prevent precipitous falls in the rupee, thus creating a shortage of liquidity in the system. The RBI will earn interest on the Rs 21.34 trillion worth of bonds from the government which it will transfer to the government as dividend. The government could lend this money to the private sector for building infrastructure thus increasing private sector investment, wrote Madan Sabnavis. How will that work? The private sector will invest only if returns are comparable to, or higher, than other investments. If the RBI is printing money to finance government spending it may lead to inflation, and, finally, it is the government's money going round in circles and is not a surplus for extra spending on infrastructure. If the RBI tries to reduce its bond holding it will lead to a tightening in liquidity, a  drop in prices and a rise in yields. The US Federal Reserve has decided to resume buying $40 billion worth of Treasury bills per month after reducing its balance sheet from $9 trillion in 2022 to $6.6 trillion at present.  Reuters. RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra started his term saying his focus will be on "fostering economic growth, ensuring stability in policy making and expanding financial inclusion." BS. These are political objectives for the elected government. The RBI should control inflation, which erodes the value of the currency, maintain adequate reserves against geopolitical emergencies and protect our money from bank frauds and cybercrime. That will be true growth. Not a political gimmick.        

All about elections.

"A widening conflict in the Middle East could trigger a fresh wave of global inflation if it spreads across supply chains, asset classes and jurisdictions, though India may remain relatively isolated, according to a report by SBI Research." ET. Very reassuring. India is very dependent on remittances from its diaspora who sent $135.4 billion in FY 2025 (pib.gov.in), 38% of which is from Gulf countries. "The cost of crude for Indian refiners has soared 93% since the conflict in the Gulf broke on 28 Feb. and hit $136.56 a barrel a week ago. TOI. Just one month ago, in January, the cost of India's basket of crude fell to $59.92 per barrel from $62.2 in December. Mint. It is not just a question of rising commodity prices, but also the exchange rate of the rupee against the US dollar which determines what we pay for retail fuel. The rupee has plunged from 90.894 to one dollar on 25 Feb. to 93.93 this morning. investing.com. What can the government do? The price of premium petrol has been increased by Rs 2.09-Rs 2.35 per liter by the oil market companies, while "Indian oil Corp Ltd has has raised the price of its industrial fuel by nearly Rs 22, or 25%, to Rs 109.59 from Rs 87.67 per liter. MC. Taking advantage of low prices since 2015, except for a brief spike in 2008  (eia. gov) the government has raked in over Rs 40 trillion from high taxes on retail fuel (ppac.gov.in). Lowering the rate of taxes on fuel will cause a serious shortfall in revenue and raising prices will immediately raise transport cost and increase prices. Assembly elections are to be held shortly in Kerala, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal, states ruled by non-BJP parties (wikipedia), and which Mr Narendra Modi would like to take over to make India a one-party autocracy. Prices will not be increased till elections are over. On the other hand, with India's oil imports at over $136 per barrel and the rupee in free fall, keeping the retail price at the same level will mean almost zero tax collection and cause a serious hole in revenue. In the assembly election in Bihar in November 2025, Mr Modi's party the BJP won the largest number of seats with 89 seats (ECI), after Mr Modi distributed Rs 10,000 each to 7.5 million women at a cost of Rs 75 billion to the taxpayer (TOI). The 16th Finance Commission found that "The Union government spent Rs 6.33 trillion on subsidies and transfers in 2023-24," while unconditional transfers by states are projected to reach Rs 4.14 trillion in 2025-26. There are dozens of other schemes including pensions, loan waivers and free electricity. Total debt of power distribution companies has reached Rs 7.42 trillion, wrote Aditya Sinha. No wonder, yields on the benchmark 10-year government bonds have jumped to 6.830 this morning from 6.661 on 27 February  (investing.com), significantly increasing borrowing costs for the government. Despite, "The Reserve Bank of India net bought bonds worth Rs 195.30 billion ($2.1) in the week ended March 13, against a record Rs 572.10 billion for the week to March 6." ET. It may seem that good times will last forever. But winning elections at any cost is highly immoral. Will Mr Modi have to pay? We really, really hope so.        

Russia can't add to India's product.

"Since 2003, India's economy has expanded at an average annual rate of over 7%. If this momentum continues for the next 20 years, India could cross the high-income threshold, with per capita GDP exceeding $15,000 in 2025 terms." Thus avoiding "the 'middle-income trap' that has stalled economies such as Brazil, South Africa and Turkey." ET. Recently, a small research shop Citrini cause panic "when it outlined a scenario in which AI ends most white-collar employment by 2028, with dire consequences for the broader economy," wrote Prof Raghuram Rajan. However, inertia, competition between companies with similar AI products and AI-assisted increase in human productivity may create new employment. In India, the situation is already critical. "The unemployment rate among persons aged 15-29 years rose to a four-month high of 14.8% in February...according to the Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation." Unemployment for females stood at 17.6% and for males at 13.7%. The Wire. "Between 2004-05 and 2023, while approximately 5 million graduates were added each year, only around 2.8 million found employment," so that, unemployment is at 40% among 15-25 year-olds and at 20% among 25-29 year-olds. ET. "Unlike much of East and South-East Asia, which relied on export-led manufacturing to absorb low-skilled workers, India's expansion has been driven by skill-intensive services - IT and communications in particular." So that "between 1983 and 2023, graduate unemployment remained stubbornly high at 35-40%." BBC. "Over the past three-and-a-half decades, India's software industry has created millions of white-collar jobs, spawning a new middle class driven by high ambition and strong spending power." However, "Some CEOs have even warned that AI could eliminate 50% of entry-level white-collar jobs." On the other hand, "According to Infosys, generative AI might displace 92 million jobs such as front-end developers and testers, but it will create some 170 million new jobs for data annotators, AI engineers and AI leads." BBC. "Hiring from India has grown 24.1% from the United States, 63.7% from the United Kingdom and 61.5% year over year." "Software developers, software testers and user interface specialists remain the most sought-after professionals." And yet, "The median pay for AI trainers in India stands at $12 per hour, far below earnings in advanced economies." TOI. For those not so educated, Russia is hiring "scaffolders, tailors, welders, drillers, cooks and others" and issued 72,000 work permits, or 33% of its foreign worker count, to Indians in 2024. A salary of $700 (around Rs 63,000) per month overcomes any fears about the war with Ukraine. Mint. Russia plans to hire another 40,000 workers from India in 2026. TOI. How can the gross domestic product (GDP) rise to $15,000 per year if millions of Indians are not producing anything? Producing in Russia doesn't count. A fairy tale. Like Goldilocks.     

Safer than the US! Perhaps.

Gen Abolfazi Shekarchi of Iran warned that " 'parks, recreational areas and tourist destinations' worldwide would no longer be safe for its enemies, a threat that signals a potential expansion of targets far beyond conventional battlefields." ET. Iran is officially warning of terrorist attacks, even in countries that are not involved in its conflict with the US and Israel, and may even be friendly with it. In 2012, Iran was blamed for a series of bombings targeting Israeli diplomats in Azerbaijan, India and Georgia (wikipedia) while Thailand witnessed a series of bomb blasts and grenade attacks which injured one of the attackers. Iran admitted its guilt when, "In November 2020, during a 'prisoner swap', Saeed Moradi, Mohammad Hazaei and Masoud Sedaghat Zadeh were exchanged for Kylie Moore-Gilbert," "a university lecturer held in Iran for 2 years." wikipedia. "As many as 30,000 people could have been killed in the streets of Iran on Jan. 8 and 9 alone," so that "it overwhelmed the state's capacity to dispose of the dead. Stocks of body bags were exhausted,..and eighteen-wheel semi-trailers replaced ambulances." Time. They know they will be chopped into bits by Iranians if they lose power and no nation on earth will grant asylum to mass murderers. So, they are willing to sacrifice their nation and strike out blindly, hoping that constant anti-government propaganda by a Trump-hating left-wing media in the US will increase public pressure to stop the conflict. Iran's major oil terminal, and lifeline, is Kharg Island and the US may be considering occupying or blockading the island. BBC. That may involve 'boots on the ground' and US casualties. A recent Reuters/Ipsos poll showed that a majority, 55%, of Americans "don't support sending ground troops into the operation against Iran." Fox. And yet, in 2018, only 21% of Americans would support a repeal of the Second Amendment while 60% would oppose it. The Washington Post. The Second Amendment grants the right to own guns because a "Well regulated militia, being necessary to the security of a free State." US Constitution. With a population of about 349 million (worldometer), there are 500 million civilian owned firearms in the US, only 6.06 million of which are registered. ammo,com. As a result, over 42,000 people died of gun-related injuries in 2023, of which 35% were homicide, 56% were suicides and 4% were unintentional shootings. Twice as many people survived gunshot injuries with expensive medical care and long-term disabilities. AHCJ. Surely, it would be much safer for US ground troops in Iran, with protective clothing and support from helicopter gunships and field artillery. Surveys show that about 50% of Americans are below average (Medium), about the same ratio as those who support the Second Amendment and those who oppose US ground troops in Iran. It's the law of averages (wikipedia). It is wrong. Americans love it. 

Luxury boats, no ladders.

 "The Delhi government is procuring two high-end boats with air conditioned cabins at a total cost of around Rs 62 million for VIP inspections of the Yamuna." "The boats should be 13 meters long, 4.3 meters wide and 2.1 meters tall," and "Each vessel will include an open rear deck for VIP public appearances with sofas" and inside, they will have "customized business-class type seats made of vegan leather with exquisite stitching." HT. These seem to be small luxury yachts, which have been used for pleasure by the rich and powerful since the time of the pharaohs. wikipedia. There is no need to inspect the Yamuna River by boat when its contamination is visible from a distance and a sample can be collected from anywhere for analysis. In October 2024, the river was covered with a thick layer of white foam "caused by the reaction between toxins and organic matter, including untreated sewage and industrial waste." TOI. In March 2026, a section of the river was covered with a pink froth due to untreated dyes and waste from illegal industries. HT. The river should be inspected by experts, not VIPs, and "public appearances" implies electioneering. A criminal waste, when a few days ago, "A woman died after drowning when she fell into a drain after the collapse of an iron bridge in Delhi's Roop Nagar." HT. VIPs should have inspected the bridge and the open drain. Two days back, nine members of a family, including three children, died in a fire in a residential-cum-commercial building in Delhi's Palam area. "Three residents jumped from the top floors and are battling for life in hospital." TOI. The building was only four-storey high but the fire engine ladders could not reach the top floor. The people were told not to jump and waited an excruciating 90 minutes before being burnt to death. HT. Locals claimed that rescue operations started an hour-and-a-half later but Delhi Fire Service (DFS) officials claimed that "The first fire tender reached on time and the rescue operations started immediately." TOI. But, they failed to save even one person. Apparently, "The first tender was stuck on the road, blocking the path of others." DFS claims it was because of construction material. Whatever the reason, it was blocking access. Their ladder could reach only the 2nd floor and not the third. In the US and Europe ladders can reach up to 12 floors. CSC Truck. Neighbor Mohit Kumar said that there is a tent house close by which could have provided mattresses for the victims to jump safely but there was no space. HT. A 'tent house' is a business establishment that puts up decorated tents for weddings and festivals and rents out chairs and tables for eating and even mattresses for guests to sleep on. weddingwire.in. Fortunately, Palam is too far from the Yamuna River for VIPs to hear the screams of burning people as they relax on "vegan leather with exquisite stitching". Whatever the cost. In lives or millions.     

In just 18 days.

"India's net direct tax collections grew 7.19% year-on-year to Rs 22.80 trillion as of 17 March 2026, according to the latest provisional data." Net corporate tax collection was Rs 10.91 trillion, non-corporate tax collection was Rs 11.32 trillion and securities transaction tax was Rs 557.17 billion. ET. Since direct taxes accrue from earnings, it means that income of both individuals and companies increased during the year. "The total gross Goods and Services Tax (GST) collections grew 8.1% to over Rs 1.83 trillion in February this year," compared to Rs 1.69 trillion in February 2025. newsonair.gov.in. Since GST is collected on consumer spending, increased income must have led to increased consumption. The Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell reported that the cost of crude oil fell to $59.92 per barrel in January from $62.2 in December and could fall to $53.31 by March. "In the current fiscal year, higher discounts and lower crude prices have already helped reduce the import bill to $80.9 billion as of November, compared with $92 billion in the same period a year earlier." Mint. Such low prices were partly because, "India imported about 144 billion euros worth of crude oil from Russia since the start of the Ukraine war, a European think tank said." The share of Russian oil jumped from under 1% to nearly 40% of total crude imports. NDTV. The Ukraine war started in February 2022 (wkipedia), since when India has been buying Russian oil at huge discounts. Instead of passing the lower costs to consumers, the government increased taxes on petroleum products, earning over Rs 40 trillion since 2015. ppac.gov.in. Also, the government levied windfall tax on oil refining companies, such as Reliance Industries Ltd which "recorded refining margins of exceeding $12.5 per barrel, while Rosneft-backed Nayara Energy reported margins of $15.2 per barrel." Multiplied by millions of barrels, profits increased by billions. In addition, the government has mandated mixing ethanol in petrol by 10% since 2022, increasing to 20% in 2025. Ethanol, derived from sugarcane, is much cheaper than petrol but Indian consumers have not seen any benefits. The Wire. Unfortunately, "The cost of crude for Indian refiners has soared 93% since the conflict in the Gulf broke out on 28 February and hit $136.56 a barrel." But prices of retail fuel will not be increased, "With elections due in four states and the Union Territory of Puducherry," until 29 April. TOI. Why is our crude basket so expensive when the benchmark Brent crude is at $111.9 per barrel this morning (oil price.com)? Mysterious. With the consumer price index (CPI) inflation at 0.71% in November 2025, real GDP growth rate at 8.5% in the second quarter of 2025-26 and a GDP growth forecast increased to 7.3% from an earlier forecast of 6.8% for FY 2025-26 (pib.gov.in), we were told to celebrate a 'Goldilocks' phase. In just 18 days the tune has changed to one of terror. Goldilocks is a fairy story for toddlers. And toddlers frequently fall as they toddle. Do we really want such an economy?           

No sanctuary anywhere.

President Donald Trump said "no one could have predicted Iranian attacks on other Middle Eastern countries." Apparently he was warned by his advisers. Independent. It's a reasonable assumption. Why would Iran make enemies of all its neighbors? Possibly, because Shia Persian Iran knows it is feared and hated by Sunni Arabs. In 2010, "King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia repeatedly exhorted the United States to 'cut off the head of the snake' by launching strikes to destroy Iran's nuclear program, according to leaked diplomatic cables." Reuters. Although wary of direct involvement, "Gulf Arab states did not ask the US to go to war with Iran, but many are now urging it not to stop short by leaving the Islamic Republic still able to threaten the Gulf's oil lifeline, and the economies that depend on it." Reuters. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) has sidelined the Ayatollahs. "According to sources, the IRGC has maintained that is is bound by a 'to-do list'set by the late Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, effectively disregarding the current government's diplomatic outreach." News18. A dead man can be made to say anything. In January 2026, the IRGC and its Basij militia used live rounds against unarmed protesters, killing 5,000-30,000 (BBC), after the Iranian rial plunged to a worthless value of 1.38 million to one dollar and the inflation rate jumped to 42.2% in December 2025 (CNN). The IRGC know that justice will be swift if they lose power and are refusing to be made scapegoats. Also, they cannot ask for asylum anywhere in the world. Former Tunisian President Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali was granted asylum in Saudi Arabia in January 2011 (Britannica) after street vendor Mohamed Bouzizi died by self-immolation, setting off widespread rioting (wikipedia).  Ousted Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and his family spend their time shopping while in exile in an elite suburb of Moscow. The Moscow Times. Assad is an Alawite, which is an offshoot of Shia, and so could not find refuge in any Arab country (Britannica) and, as Syrians, compulsory hijab in Iran would have been unacceptable to his wife and daughter (BBC). And so, Russia was the only refuge. Mengistu Haile Mariam of Ethiopia has been hiding in Harare in Zimbabwe since May 1991, after failing to stay in power despite extremely bloody repression. wikipedia. The IRGC are neither black Africans nor Sunni Arabs and no country would want to accept hundreds of murderous thugs. So, it is do or die for them. The biggest traitors are the Europeans. "Europe wants President Donald Trump to end his war in Iran as fast as possible." ET. That would hand victory to Iran which would consolidate its hold on the Strait of Hormuz permanently, thus holding the rest of the world hostage forever. Europe has been freeloading on the US for its own defence, spending small change even as the US spent $980 billion on Nato in 2025. BBC. Europe's present prosperity was established by the US which transferred $13 billion for reconstruction over four years, starting in 1948, including to enemies Germany and Italy. Britannica. Every European nation colonised countries in Asia and Africa which they ravaged mercilessly. wikipedia. With sizable Muslim populations (wikipedia) European politicians will sacrifice Israel for votes. The Green Party in the UK recently won a bye-election in Gorton and Denton by printing anti-Israeli leaflets in Urdu. thejc.com. The US and Israel must exterminate every IRGC and Basij thug from Iran. Help Iran to rebuild. Iranians will be free. The world will be safer.  

AI comes to India.

An equity research shop Citrini recently predicted that AI will end "most white-collar employment by 2028, with dire consequences for the broader economy," wrote Prof Raghuram Rajan. It is possible that a few firms become huge monopolies with few human workers, resulting in unemployment. But, more probably, similar AI models will create competition, prevent monopolies and loss of jobs, and keep prices down. Due to inertia, "although automated telephone exchanges were possible in the 1920s, the last human telephone operator was not replaced until the 1980s." Blind trust in AI could create danger. "AI models are trained on data, and they learn to make predictions by finding patterns in the data." "If the training is incomplete, biased, or otherwise flawed, the AI model may learn incorrect patterns, leading to inaccurate predictions or hallucinations." cloud.google.com. Indians are particularly vulnerable, Already, "India is getting sucked big-time into digital junk on social media platforms even as Western nations are showing signs of plateauing or even declining in this aspect," wrote Chidanand Rajghatta. Once hooked, the platforms begin the process of "enshittification", wrote Cory Doctorow. A large number of students at Delhi University prefer to learn from short videos on YouTube rather than from class lectures or textbooks. Naturally, their concept is faulty, wrote Prof Shobhit Mahajan. "With developments in artificial intelligence (AI), our dependence on phones has gone beyond simple reminders to complex tasks like ordering groceries, sending emails and preparing Excel presentations." "Quick AI searches have replaced in-depth engagements with study material, undermining reasoning and problem-solving skills." "Multiple surveys point to growing digital addiction among adolescents," wrote V Anantha Nageswaran & Shruti Singh. All this so-called progress has been a bonanza for cybercriminals with older people particularly vulnerable. "In the past six years, Indians lost over Rs 529.76 billion to various cyber frauds and cheating cases. fresh data...has revealed." Mint. "In the world of the so-called 'digital arrest' scam, the first tool used by cybercriminals is often not malicious software or phishing links," instead, "Scammers increasingly invoke the names of well-known law enforcement figures to intimidate victims into compliance." ET. Thus, law enforcement officers are being made into accomplices. "One of the fastest-rising professions globally is that of AI trainers, workers who help machine learning systems improve by annotating data, verifying outputs, and providing entry-level feedback." "India has become a key contributor to this emerging workforce." "The median pay for AI trainers in India stands at $12 per hour," while 30% of foreigners earn $15-$20 per hour, nearly 20% earn $50-$75 and "a small elite earns more than $100 per hour." TOI. Perhaps, problems of AI addiction and learning difficulties can be treated by Indian potholes. A 50-year-old woman, diagnosed 'brain-dead' by doctors, was jolted into life when the ambulance conveying her home struck a pothole in UP. TOI. Famous officers used for crime, potholes for resurrection. No wonder AI hallucinates.   

Luxurious black.

"The Bharat Progress Report 2025-26, released by the NXT Foundation, highlights India's rapid economic and technological growth over the year," and "underscores that India became the world's fourth-largest economy in 2025, overtaking Japan with a nominal GDP of about $4.18 trillion." "The country's now on course to become the third-largest economy in the world." ZNews. It may already have attained that level if the shadow economy, known as 'Black Money', is added to the nation's GDP. German economist "Friedrich Schneider places the shadow economy at roughly 23% of GDP in India," while others estimate it at more than 40% of GDP. Real estate is the largest store of hidden wealth, as well as gold, corporate structures and informal transfers. Agricultural income is largely free of income tax. Bajaj Finserve. The top 10% receive 58% of national income, while the top 1% receive about 23%. The top 1% hold 40% of national wealth and the top 10% hold two-thirds. HT. The addition of Black Money increases the wealth at the top and makes the rest poorer by comparison. "India's luxury housing segment has expanded sharply over the past four years, with luxury homes now forming 27% of the country's overall residential supply, up from 16% in 2021, according to data from Magicbricks." MC. Construction of more luxury housing means fewer affordable housing for the vast majority of the population. Alongside, India's luxury car market is expanding at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.16% and is estimated to grow from $1.44 billion in 2025 to $1.52 billion in 2026 and $1.96 billion in 2031. Mordor Intelligence. At Independence, India "adopted an import-substituting industrialization (ISI) economic strategy that assigned the commanding heights of the economy to the State." Economic liberalization was forced on us in 1991 when India had to pledge 47 tons of gold with the Bank of England and 20 tons with the Union Bank of Switzerland to deal with the balance of payments crisis. wikipedia. However, relatively higher tariffs continued to protect Indian industry so that, "Indian companies continued to serve the hapless Indian consumer rather than export. As a result, Indian manufacturing still lags in scale, quality, branding and innovation." With no competition, India spends roughly 0.6% on R&D, while "South Korea spends over 4%, Japan above 3%, Germany around 2.6% and China above 2% of GDP on R&D," wrote Janmejaya Sinha. With manufacturing at 13% of GDP, despite the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, "queues outside visa application centers for Gulf countries in Delhi show little sign of slowing, with many workers saying economic compulsions leave them little choice but to travel to the restive regions." TOI. If you do not innovate, you plagiarize. And so, "An Indian university has courted controversy at the AI summit in Delhi after an official claimed that a Chinese-made robotic dog was its own invention." BBC. There is no guarantee that increased spending on R&D will produce a game-changing product that will generate wealth. Enjoy black money. Buy a Chinese robot dog.       

Foreigners to decide.

"Iran has allowed two Indian-flagged liquefied petroleum gas carriers to sail through the Strait of Hormuz,..a rare exception to the Iranian blockade that has disrupted global energy supplies." "Shivalik and Nanda Devi are owned by state-run Shipping Corp of India." "India consumed 33.15 million metric tons of cooking gas last year, with imports accounting for about 60% of demand. About 90% of these imports came from the Middle East." Reuters. "India's external balance and government finances could be hit if oil prices stay high for an extended period,..as the Iran war pushes up oil import costs and the subsidies needed to keep key commodities available." Reuters. Subsidies promised by political parties to win elections have already reached gargantuan proportions. "After coming to power in 2014, Mr Modi has expanded India's welfare programs," and "Giant posters of Mr Modi promoting these schemes as his personal 'guarantees' dominate the landscape." "Mr Modi says his government has spent more than Rs 34 trillion ($400 billion) in the past decade, delivering direct cash benefits to low-income households and reaching over 900 million people." BBC. May be a serious understatement. In a study, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) found that "The Union government spent Rs 6.33 trillion on subsidies and transfers in 2023-24, up from Rs 2.76 trillion in 2018-19, a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 21%." And "unconditional transfers have grown at 28.8% annually since 2018-19 and projected to reach Rs 4.14 trillion in 2025-26." Besides, "dozens of schemes, pensions, loan waivers, investment promotion subsidies and electricity shortfalls are simply not classified as subsidies,' wrote Aditya Sinha. In a handout to 73.7 formal sector workers, the interest rate for the Employees' Provident Fund (EPF) has been fixed at 8.25% for the third year in a row, wrote Ahjit Ranade. This is 300 basis points higher than the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) policy rate which was cut by 125 basis points to 5.25% in 2025 (ET). The interest on EPF forms a floor for interest rates of fixed income instruments and prevents lower borrowing costs. In another handout, Dearness Allowance for government employees is increased twice a year in line with the rise in consumer price index (CPI) inflation and has reached a colossal 60% of basic salary (ET) even though 95% of government employees are paid five times more than in the private sector, according to development economist Karthik Muralidharan. Assam is to hold elections to its assembly by April 2026 (wikipedia) and has announced Rs 9,000 cash transfers to 4 million families under its 'Orunodoi) scheme (ET). The central government has collected over Rs 40 trillion in taxes on petrol and diesel since 2014-15. ppac.gov.in. If the price of oil stays high for some months what will the government do? Cutting subsidies may lose elections, which would be unacceptable to Mr Modi, and increasing the retail price of fuel will increase the cost of transport and raise prices across the board, cut consumption, discourage investment and weaken the rupee even further. Will Mr Modi be held responsible by the people? Our government practices the most severe form of censorship in the world (BBC). And a large section of the population has been brainwashed into 'Bhakts' (devotees) (DH) and live in a state of altered reality. Foreigners know the truth. Our fate is in their hands. A helpless nation.   

Remember Alexander.

"US President Donald Trump said American forces carried out a powerful bombing raid on Ian's strategic Kharg Island, claiming that every military target on the island was destroyed and warned that its vital oil infrastructure could be targeted next." "Energy researchers say Kharg Island is central to Iran's economic survival." India Today. In his first term Trump did not start any war although he may have authorized bombing of targets in Syria and Yemen. Reuters. Almost always critical of anything Trump does, Reuters forgets to mention that Trump's peace deals far outweigh any limited bombing he may have sanctioned. Known as 'Abraham Accords', Trump facilitated a "series of agreements to normalize relations" between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Morocco. "Kazakhstan's government announced in November 2025 that it would accede to the agreement," and Sudan is unable to ratify because of a civil war. Britannica. Serious discussions were underway to normalize ties between Saudi Arabia and Israel  (Britannica), which, according to a Wall Street Journal report, was sabotaged by the most barbaric, perverted attack by Hamas on 7 October 2023 (Times of Israel). "Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) worked with Hamas to plan its 7 October 2023 surprise attack on southern Israel and gave the green light for Hamas to launch the assault at a meeting on 2 October. Over 1,000 civilians were murdered and around 200 taken hostage. wikipedia. Over 70,000 Palestinians, mostly civilians, have died in Israeli bombing of Gaza since then. wikipedia. Hamas could have stopped the bombing at any moment by releasing the hostages but used every death as a propaganda opportunity. Treating their own people and children as disposable while hiding in tunnels like worms. In response to over 200 rockets fired by the Hezbollah, Israel has carried out intensive bombing of the south of the country and and Beirut's southern suburbs, "a Hezbollah stronghold from which thousands of people have fled". BBC. After relentless bombing of Iran, Trump said that the US has "practically nothing left to target". ET. Yesterday, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said that "over 15,000 enemy targets have been struck, which is more than 1,000 a day since the war began on Feb. 28. PBS. Now is the time to let Iranians finish the job. Perhaps contact the regular Iranian Army to take command and wipe out the IRGC and Basij thugs. The people should see it as their own victory. After all, Alexander may be considered Great by the West but Iranians see him as an uncivilized marauder who plundered and burnt the great city of Persepolis. BBC. If Trump can establish a peaceful government in Iran he may also be considered 'Great'. What an intense heartburn that could cause. Worth waiting for. 

It's not oil.

"India's external balance and government finances could be hit if oil prices stay for an extended period," as India "imports nearly 90% of its crude requirement and about 50% of its gas requirements." "A prolonged crisis could widen the country's current account deficit, weaken the rupee and stoke inflation, the government said," and "This concern has pushed the rupee to a record low and forced the central bank to sell dollars from its reserves." Reuters. In fact, the rupee has been weakening from long before the US and Israel launched their attacks on Iran on 28 February 2026 which caused the current rise in the price of oil. wikipedia. Since 2014, when Mr Narendra Modi first became prime minister (wikipedia) the rupee fell from 62.33 against the dollar to 88.72 in 2025, a depreciation of 42.33% (bookmyforex.com). One dollar buys Rs 92.38 this morning. xe.com. " Foreign investors have sold about $4 billion of Indian equities in January, adding to nearly $19 billion outflows last year. Corporate hedging demand has also weighed on the currency." Reuters. Blaming the current rise in the price of oil is deceiving because historically prices have been higher in the past. Brent crude is selling at $100.6 per barrel today (oilprice.com) but had risen to a high of $111.26 in 2011, $111.57 in 2012 and $108.56 in 2013 (macrotrends), dropping sharply to $53.03 in 2015 and $45.13 in 2016, during this government's tenure. But, while Indians were able to buy petrol at Rs 63.77 per liter in 2011 and Rs 68.57 in 2012, the retail price jumped to Rs 78.52 per liter in 2018 and has been over Rs 95 since 2021 as the government has increased taxes instead of passing on the benefits of lower prices to consumers (cleartax.in). If the government passes on the increase to consumers it will immediately raise transport costs and cause inflation and if it lowers taxes to keep the retail price of petrol at the same level the government will have to increase borrowing to plug the gap in revenue. In 2025, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) cut its policy rate by 125 basis points to 5.25% (ddnews.gov.in) but yield on the benchmark 10-year bonds is at 6.677% this morning (in.investing.com). On 09 March, the RBI bought Rs 1 trillion worth of government bonds through open market operations to increase liquidity in banks and bring down borrowing costs but the yield on 10-bonds rose to 6.78% before closing at 6.72%. Mint. On top of selling dollars and buying government bonds the RBI has been paying rising record amounts of dividends to the government. It paid Rs 1.02,000 in 2023-24, Rs 2,10,874 in 2024-25 (panoplexa.com) and another record Rs 2.70 trillion last year (Mint). Naturally, the government has asked for Rs 3.16 trillion in this year's budget. MC. So, where has the money gone? Not to oil. As yet. 

Cost of freedom.

 Even though Ali Khamenei opposed the elevation of his son Mojtaba Khamenei to the post of Supreme Leader, the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) forced his appointment because he is likely to back their hardline agenda. TOI. After their horrific crimes against the people any loss of power will mean brutal revenge against them and their families. Yesterday US President Donald Trump said the US has "practically nothing left to target" in Iran. ET. This is the right time when the US and Israel should let Iranians earn their freedom by completely ridding their country of every branch of the regime. The US should remember that gifted freedom is inherently unstable. In 2003, the US invaded and easily defeated Saddam Hussein's army in Iraq (wikipedia) but this was quickly followed by the emergence of Al Qaeda, which spread over into Syria, and a decade of extremely bloody terrorist attacks ensued (Britannica). Even after the defeat of the Islamic State in Iraq, "Over one million people remain internally displaced," and "the government has struggled to achieve the demobilization and integration of powerful Shiite militias, which formed during the fight against the Islamic State." cfr.org. Not learning from Iraq, the US and NATO illegally used a UN resolution to impose a 'No-Fly Zone' over Libya (press.un.org), ostensibly to protect civilians, to attack Moummar Gaddafi, resulting in his capture and murder by rebel forces in 2011 (wikipedia). Even after 15 years Libya remains a divided country with clashes between different armed groups. news.un.org. On the other hand, Vietnam won its war against the US at the cost of over 3 million lives (Britannica) which ended in a panic- stricken flight by the US in 1975 (wikipedia), Vietnam has been stable since then and has a booming economy with the GDP growing 8.02% in 2025 and GDP per capita at about $5,026 (Vietnam Briefing), higher than that of India's at $3,005 (IMF). In Afghanistan, following Soviet occupation in 1979, the US, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia supported the Afghan Mujahideen with billions of dollars forcing the Soviet Union to withdraw in 1989. wikipedia. A civil war followed, leading to Osama bin Laden and the 9/11 attacks in 2001 (wikipedia). The US occupied Afghanistan but was forced to flee in 2021 by the Taliban, leaving behind $7 billion worth of armament. CBS. Afghanistan has been stable ever since. The time is right for the US and Israel to supply guns to young Iranians so that they can fight the IRGC and the Basij thugs, but only to Shia Persians, and never, under any circumstances, to Kurds or Arabs, Sunnis or Christians. US and Israeli special forces can help by targeting the regime's arms depots but the ultimate victory must be seen to be that of the Iranian people. As soon as victory is achieved, quickly lift sanctions, bring in food and medicines, arrange loans to the central bank to stabilize the currency and help the economy to grow. A stable and peaceful Iran will be fantastic for the Middle East, the world and, especially Iranians. It will come from freedom. But, only if it is earned.

Incomplete reserves.

 "India will not participate in the International Energy Agency's (IEA) proposal to release strategic petroleum reserves (SPR) to stabilize global oil markets," because "The crisis (that led to a rise in prices) is not our creation. Those responsible have to deal with it and create situations to ease (prices)." India will continue to export refined fuels as we have "reasonably" comfortable stocks of petrol, diesel and aviation turbine fuel. TOI. On the other hand, "India allocated Rs 58.76 billion for this financial year to fill and expand its SPR but is expected to spend only Rs 10.39 billion of it - and has budgeted a mere Rs 2 billion for next year - leaving emergency stockpiles partially empty and expansion plans stalled, Budget documents show." SPR capacity is about two-thirds full and "The government's oft-cited figure of 9.5 days of crude cover from SPR assumes the caverns are full and is based on 2019-20 consumption figures." HT. Lying their heads off, aren't they?. "The Donald Trump administration of the United States yet again called India 'good actors' after 'permitting' New Delhi to buy Russian oil amid the West Asian crisis." DH. Yes Massa (dictionary). Much obliged. "The US has earlier claimed that India had stopped buying Russian oil as part of the trade deal that reduced tariffs on exports to Washington." "For India, which imports most of its oil, the combination of soaring crude prices, a weakening rupee and falling equity markets represents a triple shock." If the conflict drags on, "the impact could extend beyond financial markets into inflation, fiscal balances, corporate earnings and economic growth." ET. Inflation is under control because of weak domestic demand and soft commodity prices. Even so, "The rupee, the worst-performing Asian currency, has tumbled 9% against the dollar. This has happened even with the greenback losing ground elsewhere." "Additionally, nine million Indians work in the Persian Gulf, providing critical remittances," wrote Andy Mukherjee. The reality is that, "Even as tensions escalate across West Asia, queues outside visa application centers for Gulf countries in Delhi show little sign of slowing, with many workers saying that economic compulsions leave them little choice." ET. "Without money we will die here as well," said Dilip Yadav from Bihar. "The dual petroleum dependency: Indian households now depend on Petroleum products for both cooking (LPG) and transport (petrol, diesel, fares). Together LPG + Conveyance account for 7.5-10.2% of monthly budgets," said Shamika Ravi. That is one-tenth of monthly expense. A comparison of household monthly consumption with total income from the Periodic Labor Force Survey (PLFS) showed that 26.4% spent more than what they earned, wrote Abhishek Jha & Roshan Kishore. No reserves with the government, no reserves with households. Exposed by the conflict.