Thursday, October 02, 2025

Not much choice.

"According to the SEBI Investor Survey 2025, while 63% of Indian households - around 213 million - are aware of at least one securities market product, only 9.5% are actually participating. That's just over 32 million households with any real stake in mutual funds, stocks, ETFs, or bonds." "Risk aversion reigns: 80% of all households - and a surprising 79% of Gen Z households - prefer capital preservation over returns." "Lack of trust: Fear of fraud and loss dominates investment reluctance." BT. Perhaps, people understand more than SEBI appreciates. India's GDP growth is largely based on high capital expenditure (capex) by the government and most of that is financed from stock market taxes, said Shankar Sharma. "The real problem which I have pointed out many times in our fisc is the 'Stockmarketification' of it: we are now heavily reliant on a very volatile & short-term source of capital and are using that to fund long-dated capex. If a company were to do that, we would be shorting it," he added. "An August 2025 note from broking firm CLSA Securities shows that the share of (bank) deposits in household financial assets declined from 49.7% in 2011-12 to 38.3% in 2023-24," while "the share of household investment in equity and investment funds jumped from 12.8% to 26.8%," wrote Rajrishi Singhal. Because the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) cut its policy rate by 100 basis points in the first half of 2025 (NDTV), commercial banks have followed suit, so that 6.5% interest rate on a one-year deposit leaves almost no returns after inflation and taxes. The share of Securities Transaction Tax (STT) "as well as taxes capital gains and dividends has been increasing in the government's budget. For example, the 2025-26 Union Budget projects a 131% growth in STT collections over the actual receipts in 2023-24." Hence, the government has a direct interest in rising share prices. From 1 July to 8 September, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) "offloaded Indian shares worth Rs 1 trillion on stretched valuations, weak earnings and uncertainty over Trump tariffs. In September's six sessions so far, they have sold off stocks worth Rs 78 billion." Mint. "FIIs have pulled out over Rs 2 trillion from Indian secondary markets in 2025 so far," and "This comes on top of Rs 1.21 trillion of withdrawals in 2024." MC. And yet, "S&P Global has raised India's long-term sovereign credit rating to BBB from BBB-." pib.gov.in. Are FIIs fools? Perhaps, not. "Tamil-Nadu based logistics firm Wintrack Inc announced on X that it would cease its import-export operations in India from October 1, citing 'relentless harassment' by Chennai Customs over the last 25 days. The company claimed that officials retaliated after it twice exposed alleged bribery demands this year, leaving its business 'crippled and destroyed' in India." India Today. "Forty samples of a controversial cough syrup, linked to the death of a child in Rajasthan's Sikar district, failed quality tests over the past two years. Each time the syrup was blacklisted, the state's drug control and procurement systems facilitated the continued supply of the syrup." India Today. Indians have a healthy mistrust in the government and markets. They, however, put their trust in gold, Whatever the price. CBC. Only 9.5% Indians are investing in stocks. Perhaps, they are being pushed there. Foreigners are bailing out.  

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