Wednesday, September 03, 2025
Everyone will be right.
"Distasteful rumors about the demise of US President Donald Trump trended on social media...after the MAGA supremo uncharacteristically remained out of the public eye for more than 72 hours amid mounting concerns about his health." The rumors "were triggered by concerns about the 79-year old President's health over the past few weeks as TV cameras have shown him with bruises and purple patches on his hands and swollen legs and ankles." TOI. "US economy has been generating 85,000 jobs a month so far in 2025, down from 168,000 last year and an average 400,000 a month during the hiring boom of 2021-2023. However, in a time of uncertainty, employers are less likely to hire, but they are not letting workers go either." ET. "Two Nobel Prize winning economists, Paul Krugman and Robert Shiller, are sending cautionary signals about the US stock market." US markets could be destabilized by Trump's policies. "Krugman warns that these moves can ripple through the economy, causing slower growth while prices rise - a dangerous combination economists call stagflation." "Shiller's landmark work, Irrational Exuberance, explains why markets can sometimes detach from economic fundamentals." ET. "On paper, these are good times for the US economy. The latest GDP numbers show growth was 3.3% in the second quarter. Business investment is up. The unemployment rate remains low, and the inflation rate is reasonable." "And yet. This boom has always felt kind of terrible." "This just might be the worst best boom ever." ET. However, Trump "marked Labor Day weekend by spotlighting what the White House described as 'nearly $10 trillion' in new investments aimed at American workers, part of what officials are calling a 'Golden Age of Prosperity'." TOI. Sounds like the American version of "Amrit Kaal" promised by Prime Minister Narendra Modi for us in India (investndia.gov.in). Trump also said, "Chinese airlines were forced to keep 200 planes on the ground this year after the US blocked the export of Boeing parts." "The president repeated his threat to raise tariffs if China restricts shipments of rare-earth magnets." ET. Trump's "tariffs are a key reason why the deficit outlook is not collapsing. The US credit rating stays high because of the strong economy," and "S&P said revenue growth, including tariffs, will help cover the gap created by tax cuts and spending increases, as stated by Fortune." "S&P said the US deficit will not get much better, but it also will not get much worse, as per the reports." ET. "Among other things, it has been said that higher tariffs will cause a US and global recession," but "The country is ahead of everyone - including China - in most of the revolutionary innovations [such as artificial intelligence] that will define the future. Accordingly, its potential annual growth is likely to increase from 2% to 4% by the end of the decade, before rising much higher in the 2030s," wrote the normally pessimistic Prof Nouriel Roubini. So, there we have it. From irrational disaster to irrational exuberance. Wide enough for every pundit to be prophetic. Or, irrational.
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