Tuesday, September 02, 2025
A dream explained.
"S&P Global has raised India's long-term sovereign credit rating to 'BBB' from 'BBB-', with the short term rating upgraded to A-2 from A-3." pib.gov.in. And, "Beating estimates and marking a five-quarter high, India's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew 7.8% in the April-June quarter of FY26, data released by the National Statistics Office (NSO) showed." ET. These numbers are a "call for celebration" and a "wake up call for many gloom-mongers", wrote Sounya Kanti Ghosh. Private consumption expenditure expanded at 7%, investment expanded at 7.8%, the Centre and states front-loaded their capital expenditure, rural wages in real terms expanded 4% and "Growth in services sector at 9.3% (the highest since Q1 FY24) was indeed a pleasant surprise." In short, it is hunky-dory all round, as we Indians say. However, growth of GDP at current prices, or nominal GDP, slowed from 10.8% to 8.8%. In view of Trump's tariffs, "Economists estimate the nominal growth rate will slide to 7.5-8.0% in the full year FY26," which has implications because "nominal growth remains crucial as it forms the basis for the Budget estimates." "To meet the government's initial Budget estimate of GDP for FY26 (Rs 356.98 trillion) the economy needs to grow by around 8% in nominal terms this year, or it could curtail fiscal room for the government," wrote Pragya Srivastava & Payal Bhattacharya. "While the post-pandemic rebound pushed investment up to 33.7% of GDP in 2024-25," "To drive a meaningful economic transformation, India needs consistent real GDP growth of 8%, anchored in manufacturing and exports. India must push its investment rate higher to 36-37% to achieve this goal," wrote Dhiraj Nim. This is because wages have not kept pace with profits and so demand is weak. The same Mr Ghosh wrote, "There is limited crowding-in of private investment demand after years of public sector-led capex. GoI has done most of the heavy lifting. India Inc, sitting on a huge cash pile, should now display the proverbial 'animal spirits' and participate in the Indian growth story more vigorously." Not so hunky-dory, is it? "For generations, America has been a rite of passage for Indian families." "But in 2025, that dream has curdled." News18. Why is the US a land of dreams for Indians if things are so hunky-dory as Mr Ghosh suggests? As a tropical country, monsoon rains can be very heavy in India. But every year life comes to a halt and people die due to waterlogging in Delhi. "Rain has disrupted the daily life of Delhi NCR region, with woaterlogging and flooding danger." HT. The Merauli-Mahipalpur Road at Vasant Kunj, Delhi caved in because a wall built by Delhi Metro Rail Corporation collapsed, causing almost total cessation of traffic. India Today. Delhi is the Capital City. Elections are never held in India during monsoons because, "Monsoon is the evidence" "Roads buckle, drains overflow, airports shut, metro systems stall." "The monsoon is the season when truth seeps through every crack in the pavement. It is the one season that resists spin, resists, spectacle, resists even WhatsApp forwards." "You cannot Photoshop a flooded metro station. You cannot argue with a pothole that swallowed a car," wrote Partha Sinha. Even Mr Ghosh's heavy jargon cannot camouflage the nightmare of the monsoon. Little money, high taxes, zero services. And, that is why the US is a dream for Indians.
No comments:
Post a Comment