Don't have, can't spend.

"The near 900 bps fall in (interest) rates between 1996 and 2003 marked a historic break from high interest rates of the past," and "This led to an across-the-board rise to corporate bottom lines and consequently of stock prices." This was the great Rate Bull from 2003 to 2008, wrote Adil Rustomjee. We now have a bull market due to the Systematic Investment Plan (SIP) in mutual funds. "With much of the economy locked down, 2020 is the worst year in independent India's economic history - and yet the market rises 12%." There is a disconnect between the SIP Bull and the real economy. A note - titled 1 year, $90 bn and 0% Return Later from Kotak Securities - deflates much of the hype over stock market buoyancy by pointing to low corporate earnings growth and near-zero investment returns over the past 12 months." The government perpetuates this myth because it gains from Securities Transaction Tax (STT), capital gains and taxes on dividends. "For example, the 2025-26 Union Budget projects a 131% growth in STT collections over the actual receipts in 2023-24," wrote Rajrishi Singhal. "Annual GDP growth was 9.7%, 7.6% and 9.2% in 2020-21, 2021-22 and 2023-24 and it fell to just 6.5% in 2024-25." India needs to grow at 7.5%-8% to become a developed economy and that needs private investment. But, "While the government raising its share of the capex has helped, what is still missing in the act is a sustained rise in private investment," wrote Roshan Kishore and Abhishek Jha. "Budgeted capital expenditure (capex) of the Centre rose to over 3% of GDP in 2025-26 from 1.7% a decade ago." However, "A significant portion of it has been in the form of financial transfers by way of equity infusions and loans to public sector enterprises (PSEs), state governments and other institutions." This capex is not investment in new infrastructure but is used to plug revenue shortfall, wrote Shruti Gupta. Financial Services Secretary M Nagaraju said that "corporates are better placed for investments, pointing out that they are 'enjoying strongest balance sheets' and added that financial sector should also support them." ET. "The country's much-awaited GST 2.0 reform officially kicked in on September 22, collapsing multiple tax slabs into simpler structure and handing what Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharman has described as a Rs 2-trillion boost to consumers pockets. ET. However, people need disposable cash to be able to spend. "Nearly 70% of people buying iPhones in India choose to pay via EMI. Also, a recent study found that 93% of salaried Indians earning less than Rs 50,000 a month are relying on credit cards to support their everyday expenses, with credit and EMIs no longer optional extras, they are lifelines." FE. Indian businesses are known to be unethical. According to a Reddit post, a was offered a salary of Rs 400,000 per annum "but required him to sign a bond stating that if he left the organization within three years, he would be liable to pay a staggering Rs 1 million as compensation." ET. Living on debt and investing in shares. The Sword of Damocles (Britannica). Not one, but two.

Wrong and racist.

"In his comeback appearance on US television, Jimmy Kimmel...went on to make clear he would refuse to be cowed by his critics, chiefly Donald Trump." "In fact, being at the center of a storm about free speech seems to have hardened his resolve." BBC. Diametrically opposite and in an extraordinarily inexplicable judgement, "Karnataka HC dismissed...a petition from Elon Musk's X Corp against content takedowns, ruling that American free speech standards can't be transplanted into Indian constitutional thought and no global platform can evade the nation's laws." TOI. One of the posts cited by X Corp was, "Written in 2023, the short message from an account with a few hundred followers described a senior politician as 'useless'." Business and Human Rights. "A petitioner who seeks sanctuary under its (Indian Constitution) canopy must be a citizen of the nation, failing which its protective embrace can't be invoked," the judge said. This is so shockingly wrong and egregiously racist that all citizens of India should hang their heads in shame. In March 2025, an Israeli woman was gang-raped and an American man was pushed into a lake in Karnataka, probably intending to kill him. BBC. Are we to understand that, since all laws emanate from the Constitution, and these victims were foreigners, they have no right to expect justice in India? Article 14 of the Constitution states, "The State shall not deny to any person equality before the law or equal protection of the laws within the territory of India." It says "any person", not any citizen. Secondly, if X Corp has no rights because it is a foreign company, why would any foreigner want to invest in India? Thirdly, X Corp carries opinions of Indian citizens. Article 19 states, "All citizens shall have the right to freedom of speech and expression (indiacode.nic.in)," although the State has been allowed to restrict any speech that harms the security of the State, to maintain public order, decency or morality, or "in relation of contempt of court, defamation or incitement to an offence." Calling a politician "useless" does not violate any of these conditions. Moreover, a politician is merely elected representative "who is then expected to follow the will of the people." Britannica. They are most definitely not our masters. The Constitution explicitly states that "All laws in force in the territory of India immediately before the commencement of this Constitution" shall be void. However, Section 124A was introduced into the Indian Penal Code by Thomas Macaulay to punish disaffection against the British monarch. blog.ipleaders.in. This odious law is still in effect and "disaffection towards the Government established by law" carries life in prison. epw.in. The government uses its majority to bulldoze malicious laws through Parliament. Three new criminal laws and a Telecom bill were passed when the Speaker of the Lok Sabha suspended 100 opposition MPs and 46 opposition MPs were suspended from the Rajya Sabha. The Wire. Surely, the Parliament lacked the requisite quorum? A tyrannical government and a pliant judiciary makes India a fascist state. That's why techies go to temple for their American Dream. Is India a nightmare?     

Tax or spend.

"As India's weight in the MSCI Emerging Market Index has increased over time from ~7% to ~20%," foreign investment in Indian equity should be 20%. But, "On a cumulative basis, EM equities saw USD 1,380 billion in total flows since 2007. Indian equities over the same period, saw USD 168 billion in net flows, ~12% of total EM flows." "Global investors are thus missing out on India's growth story which is reflected in Indian public equities," wrote Arvind Chari. On the other hand, "Disconnect of the market from the real economy seems to be increasing with time, and this is paradoxical." "Despite a GDP collapse of 24% for Q2 2020, and a near 8% contraction for 2020-21," "the market consistently traded at over 30x forward earnings (at one point, it even touched 40x) with dividend yields that consistently went below 1%." "As a result, cycles are becoming tenuous to the point where the market is in danger of losing its traditional role as a barometer for the economy." ET. If markets are unrealistically high, foreign investors could be booking profits, which would explain their net investment at 12%. Following Covid, the fiscal deficit was brought down from 9.2% of the gross domestic product (GDP) in 2020-21 to 4.77% in 2024-25, revenue expenditure was cut from 15.5% of GDP to 10.9%, revenue deficit fell from 7.3% to 1.71% while capital expenditure rose from 2.15% to 3.18% in the same period. But now the government is providing a demand stimulus by increasing the tax free income to Rs 1.2 million and cutting GST rates. They hope that increased consumption will compensate for lower tax rates but it may be difficult to contain the fiscal deficit, wrote AK Bhattacharya. But will tax cuts really stimulate economic growth? "The 1997-98 'Dream Budget' stimulated investment and growth. Tax buoyancy grew stronger during the 1997-2002 period after the budget." But, "The 2008-09 tax cut worsened the fiscal deficit without a lasting boost to growth." And, "The 2019 corporate tax cut has not stimulated private corporate investment," wrote Deepa Vasudevan. "Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in a public address...asked citizens to stop using foreign-made products and instead use local ones." Reuters. "In its short life so far, GST has emerged as a big avenue for graft payments. The government has promised to cut compliance costs. But without a decisive end to unnecessary red tape, misclassification, fraud, and corruption may continue unabated," wrote Andy Mukherjee. "Worse, the non-economic institutions that must support economic growth - the police-legal system, bureaucracy and judiciary - remain completely unreformed. They cannot, even if they want to, deliver quality law and order and justice in quick time to citizens and businesses," wrote R Jagannathan. Law and order could catch the real offenders. That could be extremely embarrassing. Much easier to speechify to a committed audience. Foreign investors are wise to restrain themselves. Even 12% is generous.        

The price of Amendments.

" 'Jimmy Kimmel Live!' will return to ABC...ending a nearly weeklong of standoff over the late-night talk show," but "Sinclair and Nexstar Media Group, which together own about one in five ABC affiliates nationwide, both said they would continue preempting Kimmel's show in a controversy which has gone beyond late-night talk shows into questions of free speech and the First Amendment." CNN. Earlier his show was pulled off the air indefinitely after his comments on the murder of Charlie Kirk. In his monologue, "Kimmel said that the 'Maga gang' was 'desperately trying to characterise this kid who murdered Charlie Kirk as anything other than one of them' and trying to 'score political points from it'." BBC. On 11 September, Charlie Kirk, a conservative activist and a friend of President Donald Trump, was shot dead at a college event in Utah. NDTV. If Kimmel really wanted to exercise his First Amendment right to free speech, he would have talked about the outdated Second Amendment which guarantees "the right of the people to keep and bear Arms" for a "well regulated Militia". constitution.congress.gov. Instead, by accusing Maga, Kimmel made it a political statement. The US is the most powerful country in the world with a powerful military (US News) and has no need for any militia. The US is the only country in the world which allows individuals to claim ownership of mineral wealth in private land. In the 19th century, "the federal government passed homestead and development acts to encourage settlement in the West. These acts, along with the General Mining Law of 1872, allowed for federal public domain lands, and the natural resources within them, to pass to private ownership." Natural Resources Revenue Data. These laws must have been designed to grab land from the native Indian tribes living in the area and a well-armed Militia was necessary to protect the land-grabbers from attempts by Indians to take their land back. Unfortunately, today's Americans are paying the price of past sins. "Between January and August 2024, an estimated 30.1 k (30,100) people died from gun-related injuries. This is 5% fewer people than had died during the same point in 2023." USA Facts. Even children are not safe. "There have been 47 school shootings in the United States this year, as of September 10." "The incidents left 19 people dead and at least 77 other victims injured." CNN. The US even has fashionable pink guns for girls and women. pinkgun.com. And, there are many models of 'Youth Guns' to teach children how to shoot. Impact Guns. The First Amendment gives Americans the right to shoot their mouths off and the Second Amendment the right to get shot. Isn't that barbaric? But, Indians dream of living in the US and die trying to get there ET. What does it say about us?

Hyphenated with all the 'stans'.

"President Donald Trump is taking yet another gamble on immigration," as "The overhaul, signed by the president,...escalates the price of entry to $100,000 per worker, to be paid by the company." "Trump also wants a revision of the prevailing wage rules to ensure that visa-holders get paid the same as Americans." "Nevertheless, Trump is correct" because "H-1B visas had been deliberately exploited," so that "American STEM graduates, led to believe their degrees would result in plentiful opportunities and well-paid jobs, are scrounging for work," wrote Patricia Lopez. The new fee "is expected to cast a shadow over remittance growth and partially impact earnings from the foreign exchange business for financial services providers, bankers and forex advisors said." ET. "Indians account for more than 70% of all H-1B visas." "Introduced as a travel restriction, it has the appearance of an economic sanction, an escalation of the punishment the US leader has meted out to a staunch ally in recent months." "First came a 50% duty on merchandise exports," but "By adding services to a trade war that Team Modi didn't see coming, Trump may have done more than shave off a few percentage points from outsourcing firms' margins," wrote Andy Mukherjee. It seems very personal, like the row with Canada. In 2018, then Prime Minister of Canada Justin Trudeau visited India with his wife and children but, "Miffed at the Canadian PM's support for 'Sikh separatists', Modi had refused to meet Trudeau until he made amends by meeting Punjab Chief Minsiter Amarinder Singh." Trudeau's former principal secretary Gerald Butts accused Mr Modi of "screwing" Trudeau during his trip to India in 2018. The Print. Mr Modi is fond of spouting 'Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam' which means 'the world is one family' but he should perhaps have remembered 'Atithi Devo Bhava' which means 'a guest is akin to god' (wikipedia). Insulting a politician is one thing, insulting his family is very personal. The Conservatives lost in the general election in April as Mark Carney led the Liberals to victory. BBC. The 51st G7 summit was to be held in Canada from 16 to 17 June 2025 (wikipedia) and till 02 June, for the first time in six years, Mr Modi had not been invited to the summit (HT). In an unrelated event, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar held a phone conversation at the end of May with his Canadian counterpart Anita Anand, ostensibly"focused on deepening economic ties and advancing shared priorities". TOI. Priorities would be very different, won't they? Mr Modi "did get a last- minute invitation to join the G7, but not as a participant, only as an observer," wrote Jawhar Sircar. In a phone call on 17 June Trump told Mr Modi "how proud he was of ending the military escalation" between India and Pakistan to which Mr Modi replied that US involvement "had nothing to do with the recent ceasefire", according to the New York Times. ET. "India's unwavering opposition to third-party mediation on the Kashmir issue is the product of hard lessons drawn from history." TNIE. However, Operation Sindoor had nothing to do with Kashmir, but was retaliation for a terrorist attack on selected Hindus in Pahalgam. wikipedia. To prove his point, Trump appointed his close friend Sergio Gor as US Ambassador to India, as well as Special Envoy for South and Central Asian Affairs, thereby 'hyphenating' India with Pakistan and equating India with smaller nations in Central Asia. "In 2012, India strongly resisted the Obama administration's bid to appoint Richard Holbrooke as special envoy to South Asia." India Today. This time, there is only a sound of silence. So, what did Mr Modi actually say to Trump? Has he dumped India into irrelevance only to satisfy his ego? Now we are firmly hyphenated with Pakistan and all the other 'stans' in Central Asia (wikipedia). Well done.  

Bonds may be saying something.

"Prime Minister Narendra Modi yesterday hailed the next generation Goods and Services Tax (GST) reforms that will come into effect from 22 September 2025." "PM Modi said that with income up to Rs 1.2 million being tax exempt from this year, and the GST rate cuts effective from the first day of Navaratris, the common people and middle-class of the country will see a double bonanza." TOI. Mr Modi is known for his modification of facts. According to Congress leader Kapil Sibal, Mr Modi and his government "could only manufacture jumlas, statements and slogans." HT. A 'jumla' is an 'empty promise' (Mint). We also know that the state of Bihar is to hold elections to its assembly next month. wikipedia. Edelweiss CEO Radhika Gupta said that "while many professionals in urban India continue to describe themselves as middle class the actual income range for that group is much lower - between Rs 500,000 and Rs 800,000 annually." Only "about 100 million people earn the equivalent of $12,000-$14,000 (about Rs 1.056 million-Rs 1.232 million) annually." ET. Which means a very small fraction of the population will get the benefit of income tax exemption up to earnings of Rs 1.2 million, certainly not the middle class. GST started in July 2017 and annual collections were increasing slowly as more businesses came into the tax net. Collections started to soar from 2021-22 as retail inflation increased prices year-on-year (rateinflation.com) reaching a peak of Rs 2.37 trillion in April this year (Tata Nexarc). Since GST is a percentage of the final retail price and since inflation compounds year-on-year, perhaps it might have been wiser to reduce rates when prices were rising as that might have compensated for the fall in revenue. "Rising bond yields and depreciating currency." "Both reflect underlying market scepticism about the soundness of our macro fundamentals." "Reflecting this new reality, bond market yields have risen while the rupee has fallen a little over 3% this year." Mint. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) cut its policy rate by 50 basis points (bps) in June to 5.5% (Mint) but the yield on the benchmark 10-year bond is at 6.503% this morning (Investing.com). "Worries over the impact of steep US tariffs on Indian exports have kept the rupee under pressure over recent weeks," while "Bond yields have jumped sharply recently, as concerns over demand-supply mismatch come to the fore, with investors facing mark-to-market losses on existing holdings." ET. What this is hinting at is that falling tax revenue, both direct and indirect, may increase government borrowing. An oversupply of bonds to finance a higher fiscal deficit will result in lower prices and higher yields. Hence Mr Modi's unscheduled lecture to spend more on local goods during the festival season. Will people do so? And do they have the money?        

Welcome back.

"On Friday night, President Donald Trump signed a proclamation imposing a $100,000 fee on H-1B visas, a program widely used by global and Indian IT companies. By Saturday night, the White House clarified the fee will only apply to new visas, not renewals or existing holders, offering partial relief." "The move threatened not only individual careers but also India's $250-billion IT services industry, which relies on overseas deployment." ET. "Principal Secretary to the Prime Minister, Dr PK Mishra,..said under its Capacity Building Commission, the Centre had been encouraging Indians working abroad to return to the country." DH. "The Capacity Building Commission was consulted through the Gazette of India on 1st April 2021." "National Programme for Civil Services Capacity Building (NPCSCB) - Mission Karmayogi aims to create a competent civil service rooted in Indian ethos." cbc.gov.in. This means bowing to the ground and saying 'jo hukam' (will do as ordered) to the Dear Leader, no matter how harmful for the people. In 2016, a completely irrational whim, obeyed by a servile "Indian ethos", resulted in the unbearable pain of demonetisation of Rs 1000 and Rs 500 banknotes (BBC) for the poor and the middle class. The claim was that black money, money on which tax had been evaded, as well as counterfeit notes would be destroyed. But, 99% of the demonetized notes were returned to the banking system and only 573,891 fake notes out of a total of 24.02 billion notes, close to 0%, were detected. Thus demonetisation was an "epic failure", wrote Vivek Kaul. Sadly, no 'Karmayogi' protested against this brutal assault on the Indian people. On 24 March 2020, Mr Modi perpetrated a total lockdown on the nation with just 4 hours notice, when there were only 500 cases of Covid-19. epw.in. Suddenly thrown out of jobs, with no money to pay for food or rent, millions of migrant workers, and their little children, walked thousands of miles back to their villages (TOI) with no help from the so-called 'Karmayogis'. "India's export sector is being 'strangled by a bureaucratic system'," security analyst and Observer Research Foundation Sushant Sareen warned, after fresh complaints from exporters about excessive documentation requirements." Apparently, "shipping a single container requires generating 17 to 18 different documents." BT. "Indian billionaires are quitting the UK and US but none of them want to return to India, according to RPG Group Chairman Harsh Goenka." "Tehseen Poonawalla, venture capitalist and internet personality, believes it's to do with 'tax terrorism' and 'GST extortion' and, of course, bureaucracy." HT. Thousands of faculty positions in universities lie vacant. "According to data from July this year, 26% of the total 18,951 sanctioned faculty posts in 46 Central universities are vacant." "No wonder, that of the college-educated youth in the 24-29 age group, the unemployment rate is more than 30%." DH. "Forget Harvard, Oxford or Toronto. Thousands of Indian students are now packing their bags for Kyrgyzstan, Cambodia, Malta and even North Korea." Zee News. Those left behind try for the unbelievable rewards of civil services. "India is squandering its brightest minds chasing a dream with a 99.9% failure rate, economist Sanjeev Sanyal warned, sharply criticising the civil services obsession as a 'complete waste of human resource'." BT. 'Karma' means action and a 'yogi' is an ascetic who would do no harm through his karma. Our lot are the opposite. Why would the NRIs come back?       

Beware of the rupee.

"The US Federal Reserve has cut interest rates for the first time this year, lowering its benchmark policy rate by 25 basis points to 4% to 4.25% range. The move marks the beginning of a monetary easing cycle aimed at supporting a slowing labor market, even as inflation remains elevated." ET. Fed Chair Jerome Powell "indicated more cuts would follow at meetings in October and December, said the softening job market was now top of the mind for him and his fellow policymakers." "Powell said he believes the recent pace of job creation is running below the break-even rate needed to hold the unemployment rate constant, and that with businesses doing very little hiring overall, any increase in layoffs could quickly feed into higher unemployment." Reuters. Stephen Jen and team "averaged out the CPI inflation and federal funds rate (FFR) trajectories over the past six cycles spanning 1971 to 2016 and compared those to the respective trajectories in the current cycle." "Over the period analysed, the Fed waited only five months after inflation started rising before making its first hike, on average. In the current cycle, inflation began to go up in the summer of 2020, but the Fed did not start hiking until the summer of 2022. Thus, the Fed waited 22 months to pull the first trigger." Reuters. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) went even longer, for a full 24 months, having cut interest rate by 40 basis points (bps) to 4% in May 2020 (rbi.org.in) before increasing it in an unscheduled meeting in May 2022 by 40 (bps) to 4.4% (Mint). This was probably a panic reaction just before the Fed announced a full 50 basis points rise. The RBI has been mandated to keep CPI inflation at 4% with a margin of 2% on either side (ET). Deviations from the 4% target was probably meant to be an occasional slip. However, the RBI cut interest rate in May 2020, despite CPI inflation at a peak of 7.6% in January 2020 and at 7.2% in April 2020. The inflation rate was at 6.3% (rateinflation.com), higher than the upper margin allowed, even as it was cutting rates. "The RBI has cut the repo rate three times this calendar year, with two 25 bps reductions in the first two Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meetings," and a 50 bps cut in June, for a total of 100 bps cut in 2025. HT. However, India's CPI inflation is well within the RBI's range. "Research and ratings firm Crisil said that the headline inflation during 2025-26 is projected to be 3.2%, lower than the earlier estimate of 3.5%." ET. Now that the Fed has started on a downward path should the RBI slash its policy rate by higher amounts? Last week, "The Indian rupee dropped to an all-time low against the US dollar," having "closed at 0.39% lower at 88.4425 against its previous close of 88.1000." Reuters. It recovered to 87.745 but has gone above 88 again. in.investing.com. Will a weaker rupee partially cancel out Trump's tariffs and increase exports, or will it increase the price of imports and inflation which may dampen consumer spending during the festival season? Tinkering with the interest rate is easy. The rupee has its own market. And, it directly affects us. Beware.           

Rs 1 million in upper class.

"China today has a much larger base of rich families across all categories - often 3 to 6 times higher than India. For example, China has 5.1 million affluent households with wealth above $0.84 million, compared to 872,000 households in India with over $1 million. At the ultra-rich level, China counts 130,500 households with wealth above $14 million, while India has 66,800 households above USD 12 million." ET. "Home prices in India are expected to rise at a faster pace than earlier projected, with demand from affluent buyers outpacing supply, according to Reuters poll of property experts. Meanwhile, shrinking affordable housing options are keeping millions of urban migrants locked in increasingly costly rentals." ET. CEO of Edelweiss Mutual Fund Radhika Gupta puts India's middle-class with earning in the Rs 500,000-Rs 800,000 range annually. "Roughly 100 million people earn $12,000-$14,000 (Rs 1 to Rs 1.2 million) per year, while more than 1 billion live under $2,000 (Rs 170,000)." TIE. "On a sultry Monday evening, the platforms of MGR Chennai Central Railway Station were crowded with groups of men from Tiruppur's hosiery export hubs," as "The 50% tariffs on Indian exports are already driving them out of their dream job. They are now heading back to their homes in Bihar, Jharkhand and Uttar Pradesh," as "Orders have dried up, inventories are piling up, and factory owners can't pay their idle laborers anymore. Migrant laborers are the first to be ejected from the cut-throat price-sensitive export industry - nearly a month before Diwali festivities." The Print. "A Reddit post about the harsh realities of India's job market has sparked a discussion on low pay, stalled growth and the struggles of today's workforce. In the post titled 'Applied to 100s of jobs in the last few months can't even get the job of 3.5 LPA (Rs 350,000 per annum) reality of the country'." HT. "In recent years, India has enjoyed a virtuous cycle. The fast growth and unusual stability of its $4 trillion economy has boosted the country's confidence in the world." President Donald Trump raised tariffs on Indian goods to 50%. "However, given that all overseas shipments generate just 11% of Indian GDP, the economy can absorb the blow." A far greater blow would be The Halting International Relocation of Employment Act or Hire Act which would be devastating for our IT services industry. "India is too poor for Modi to open its market to US agricultural imports or to promise hundreds of billions of dollars of investment in the world's biggest economy as Japan has done. Meanwhile, India's loose grip on supply chains means it cannot follow China's lead by withholding exports of rare earths or other items." Reuters. "Economist and fund manager Ruchir Sharma has said India will never achieve China-style double-digit growth,..and warning that freebies culture makes such growth impossible." BT. A Niti Aayog (a government think tank) paper estimated that India's GDP would have to grow 9 times to get from $3.36 trillion to $30 trillion by 2047 and per capita income will need to multiply 8 times to get from $2,392 per annum to $18,000 per annum. The Wire. This is pure hokum. Handouts and hokum. Easy way to win elections,     

High or low, both inconvenient.

Yesterday, "the Federal Reserve approved a widely expected rate cut and indicated two additional cuts may come before year-end amid growing concerns about the US labor market." The Federal Open Market Committee set rates between 4% and 4.25%. CNBCTV18. The US annual consumer price index (CPI) inflation came in at 2.9% in August, up from 2.7% in July and 2.3% in April 2025. bls.gov. US "Total non-farm payroll employment changed little in August (+22,000) and has shown little change since April, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported today. The unemployment rate, at 4.3%, also changed little in August." bls.gov. Why cut interest rate if nothing changed? Because, nonfarm payroll employment increased by 256,000 in December 2024 and the unemployment rate was at 4.1%. bls.gov. "India's retail inflation quickened to 2.07% in August from an eight year low of 1.55% in July, driven by fading impact of base effect, according to government data." ET. "India's wholesale prices in August rose 0.52% year-on-year, reversing a 0.58% decline in the previous month." Reuters. However, "Hedge fund manager Akshat Shrivastava...said that while official data pegs India's retail inflation at just 2.07%, the middle class is dealing with a much higher cost of living, with expenses on essentials rising by at least 10%." BT. Which means, "Rs 50 million can last a lifetime in Vietnam or Thailand - but in Mumbai or Delhi, it might barely stretch a few years." BT. But, "Just as inflationary heat is rising again in America, much of Asia is feeling a chill." "Consumer prices have fallen outright in China, the biggest of all, and in Thailand." "Even in inflation-prone India prices rose by just 1.6% in July, the slowest rate since 2017." "One culprit is Chinese overcapacity, which has entrenched deflation domestically." Since 2022, China's export-price index has fallen by 15%, even as exports have risen overall." "Over the same period, China's goods-trade surplus with developing countries in Asia almost doubled." "Expect Trump's tariffs to entrench the low-inflation trend." "Deflation is a decrease in the general price level of goods and services.""When it occurs the value of money grows over time." "Deflation is widely regarded as an economic 'problem' that can intensify a recession or lead to a deflationary spiral." CFI.  "China is seeing a fierce e-commerce war." "It is led by Quick Commerce players," which are "China's version of Blinkit, Swiggy, Zepto." "As a result, China's e-commerce giants, including Alibaba, JD.com and Meituan, are locked in an unprecedented 'instant retail' price war, which they view as crucial for their future despite government warnings. The fierce competition,..has prompted authorities to express concern that the aggressive price-cutting could exacerbate deflationary pressures in an already fragile economy." TOI. Last month, the Reserve Bank of India lowered its inflation projection for FY26 to 3.1% from 3.7%. ET. It may be pleasing that Indian companies are intensifying deflation in China but falling prices could increase imports of Chinese goods, increase our current account deficit, hurt sales of domestic companies, cause higher unemployment and a fall in consumer demand. A kind of deflationary spiral. Higher prices or lower, we have no control. That is the danger. Reuters.    

Only split ACs leak.

"Nearly 66% of live births in 2023 were first-order births - a terminology used to refer to the first born - and just 3.6% accounted for forth or higher order births, according to Sample Registration System (SRS) Statistical Report 2023. In terms of spacing of births, it stated, 53.6% of second and higher order births occurred 36 months or more after the previous live birth." TOI. "India's overall TFR (Total Fertility Rate) touched and then fell below the critical 2.1 threshold in 2019 and 2020." Urban TFR reached 1.5 in 2023 while the rural TFR "has fallen more sharply, from 3.3 in 2004 to 2.1 in 2023." "According to the United Nations' 2024 population projections, the growth rate of India's population has already slowed down from a CAGR of 2.33% in 1950-60 to 0.98% in 2015-25, and it will start declining from 2062," wrote Abhishek Jha & Roshan Kishore. Since human beings are solely responsible for global warming and pollution only a drastic reduction in human population will clean up the world. As TFR falls and disposable wealth rises the use of refrigerators, room air-conditioners (RACs) and motor vehicles rises. "The sale of RAC's has been growing 15-20% annually since 2020." And "The coolants we use today - hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) - are hundreds of times more potent than carbon dioxide (CO2) in heating the climate." "In India, refrigerant leakage has reached crisis proportions," wrote Chandra Bhushan. Leakage of coolant gas can happen due to faulty Shrader valve, manufacturing defects, corrosion of coils and formicary corrosion. croma.com. All articles analysing the reasons for leakage of coolants fail to mention the main, and perhaps the only, reason for leakage - split ACs. Refrigerators and window ACs almost never leak even after ten years of use because they are factory-fitted sealed units. Only split ACs leak probably because the internal and external units come separately and have to be linked through a hole in the wall during installation. So it has to be a basic fault in the design. "In the hurry to achieve climate goals, reduce dependence on fossil fuels, and claim self-reliance, govt's accelerated push for ethanol blended fuel - without giving vehicle makers, service providers, or consumers a longer period to transition smoothly - feels like a policy ambush." "Ethanol burns faster than petrol, delivers about 34% less energy per unit, and is corrosive because it absorbs water. Brazil's flex-fuel vehicles (FFVs), re-engineered to run on ethanol, are built to counter these drawbacks and reassure buyers that their cars will last while maintaining performance," wrote Anjana Menon. Using ethanol increases earning of farmers and apparently will improve acceleration of vehicles and act as anti-knocking. Reduced mileage and engine damage are due to bad driving and poor maintenance. pib.gov.in. There are only 50 million cars on Indian roads, that is 34 cars per 1,000 people. Data for India. On the other hand, there are hundreds of millions of farmers who constitute the largest vote-bank (wikipedia). Car owners will lose money. Farmers gain. Car owners can lump it.      

A booster dose.

"The changes in the Goods and Services Tax regime is a double dose of support and growth for the nation and the next generation reforms have been done to support India's progress in the 21st century, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said." HT. GST rates were simplified to just two rates of 5% and 18% and "cut taxes on household essentials (soaps, toothpaste, Indian breads) to 5% or Nil boosting affordability." static. pib.gov.in.  Earlier, exemption limit from income tax was raised to Rs 400,000 for all individuals and to Rs 1.2 million for salaried individuals. ET. These changes are meant to stimulate growth in GDP by encouraging higher consumption, which is strange because, "Real GDP has been estimated to grow by 7.8% in Q1 (April-June) of FY 2025-26 over the growth rate of 6.5% during Q1 of FY 2024-25. Nominal GDP has witnessed a growth rate of 8.8% in Q1 of FY 2025-26." pib.gov.in. "The Indian economy keeps surprising analysts on the upside." It grew 7.4% in the Jan-Mar quarter and then by 7.8% in the Apr-Jun quarter. "Private Final Consumption Expenditure  (PFCE) improved by 7.2% in the last fiscal year." "Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCE), the best measurement of investment, rose by 7.12% in 2024-25 after achieving 9.4% the previous quarter. No sign here of a structural slowdown," wrote Swaminathan Aiyar. That then begs the question: if the economy is growing gangbusters why the frantic effort to boost growth by cutting both direct and indirect taxes at the cost of increasing fiscal deficit? "In most walks of life scale brings efficiency." But in taxation, "The bigger the spend, the higher the rate." "If you can afford more, you must pay more - not merely in absolute terms, but in rates. The stated goal is redistribution, but the outcome is often distortion: aspiration gets punished, growth is discouraged, and avoidance finds fertile grounds," wrote VK Mathews. If these tax changes are so dramatic, why are the stock markets unimpressed, asked Andy Mukherjee. "The main reason for the lack of enthusiasm in equity markets is that what is being sold as a reform is just a new rate card." It is not just the stock market, but "Rising bond yields and a depreciating currency." "Both reflect underlying market scepticism about the soundness of our macro fundamentals." Mint. No matter how hard the government tries, "Economist and fund manager Ruchir Sharma has said India will never achieve China-style double-digit growth, pointing to structural differences between the two countries and warning that freebies culture makes such growth impossible." BT. However, freebies are essential for winning elections. Hence, freebies are untouchable. And so, tinker with taxes.          

Just a blip.

"The world is witnessing revolts against life and politics as usual. "A youth revolt against political parties in Nepal," "Indonesia is paralysed by protests after legislators voted themselves a housing allowance ten times the minimum wage" and "France is rocked by a 'Block Everything' revolt against President Macron."  Student protests overthrew governments in Sri Lanka and Bangladesh. "Yet stock markets globally are booming. They seem to believe that we are witnessing a blip...and not much will change," wrote Swaminathan Aiyar. Nothing will change because people have no power. Politicians and top civil servants can continue their lavish lifestyles with hikes in their allowances every few months (ET), protected by Z plus security (wikipedia) provided by the state, while ordinary people working up to 2,000 hours per year (BBC) find it hard to manage on wages of Rs 1.2 million per year after taxes, rent and expenses (FE). Secondly the government has control of police and armed forces and does not hesitate to use them to protect themselves. At least 32 protesters were killed in Nepal and over 200 injured in clashes with police till 5 days ago (BBC) and at least 10 people have died in Indonesia after protests erupted over the death of a delivery driver run over by a police vehicle (BBC). In 2017, at least 38 people were killed and over 200 injured when police were issued orders of "shoot at sight" after Gurmeet Ram Rahim was sentenced to 20 years in prison for raping two women in 2002. Reuters. In the US, the stock markets are driven by huge companies with global reach, such as the Magnificent Seven with market capitalization in trillions of dollars. At present they include Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, NVIDIA and Broadcom. Investopedia. Tesla dropped out after its market capitalization fell to $1.04 trillion due to a collapse in sales in Europe following CEO Elon Musks support of President Donald Trump's policies and competition from cheaper Chinese cars (Reuters). "China's stock market is on a tear supported by state money and big institutions, and analysts say the absence of retail investor euphoria suggests the rally has legs even as the economic recovery struggles to gather pace." Reuters. These are the two biggest economies in the world. In India, as fixed returns lagged inflation, "more investors move away from traditional bank deposits to capitalise on India's growth story, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) - primarily powered by mutual funds - have emerged as dominant players." "The domestic inflows have helped cushion the Indian stock market from foreign investor outflows, thereby reducing the overall impact on market stability." Mint. Protests like the French Revolution based on the slogan of 'Liberty, equality and fraternity' which resulted in the end of monarchy (Britannica) and in permanent democracy are not possible in India because India does not have one predominant language and culture. India has been divided linguistically and each state government is motivated by its own survival. Thus, the BJP, with 240 out of 543 seats in the Lok Sabha (wikipedia), is ruling the nation because of support from TDP (16 seats) in Andhra Pradesh and the JDU (12 seats), plus a mishmash of smaller parties (wikipedia). Self interest overrides national interest. However, not all revolutions involve stone throwing and live bullets. The Industrial Revolution, starting in Britain in 1760, completely changed the world (Britannica) and shifted the balance of power decisively to Western countries. Protests are just a blip despite so many deaths. Shows how insignificant citizens are. Shoot and boot.         

Waiting for something.

In July, "India and the United Kingdom have signed the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA), a bilateral free trade agreement marking a major milestone in their long-standing partnership." "The agreement eliminates tariffs on 99% of India's exports to the UK, covering nearly 100% of trade value." "UK will allow 1,800 Indian chefs, yoga instructors, and artists annually under contracted service quotas." pib.gov.in. This month, "When Prime Minister Narendra Modi, let down by his once 'true friend' Donald Trump over choking tariffs on India, clasped hands...with the leaders of Russia and China, he was clearly trying to send a message." "But if Modi's moment of unity with US rivals sent one message, his absence from photographs the next day, when dozens of leaders attended a huge Chinese military parade, sent another." ET. Recently, "In another attempt to push Western allies to stop their purchases of Russian crude and increase pressure on Vladimir Putin, Donald Trump issued an open letter to Nato members. Yet one detail stood out in the President's message: India was not mentioned." TOI. Maybe because, "Despite the US President Donald Trump administration imposing a 50% tariff on imports, citing India's crude oil purchases from Russia, New Delhi is strengthening strategic partnerships with Washington and Israel with an aim to reduce its dependence on Moscow's military hardware." "According to the Jerusalem Post, India's evolving defense program is exemplified by co-production with the United States." Zee News. "There are a couple of downsides for Russia. The first is the Russians must depend on China to facilitate supplying Russia's arms industry with needed components. Should the supply chain be broken, the Russians face an unenviable challenge to supply their military." Asia Times. This means that China will have control over Indian weapons indirectly by restricting Russian production and directly by programming a backdoor in their chips. Meanwhile, "Gautam Adani's efforts to get US fraud charges against him resolved have stalled, according to people familiar with the matter, prolonging the regulatory overhang that has hobbled the Adani Group's global expansion plans." And these problems will not be resolved as long as tensions between India and the US remain high. Mint. But, bad things come in threes. wiktionary. "There has been heightened concern in recent days about the misuse of Decentralized Finance (DeFi) for illicit activities, notably by terrorist groups seeking to raise finances, build infrastructure, or expand their networks." Because, "Access to the DeFi service does not warrant the opening of an account or identity verification." DH. No need for Aadhaar. Sadly, Indians cannot drown their sorrows either. "The much anticipated duty cuts for Scotch and gin is not happening overnight. While import duty will come down from 150% to 75%, it is unlikely to happen until at least the second half of 2035." TOI. Friends, foes and fun all frozen. Waiting for what?             

Population, not immortality.

"Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin have been overheard discussing organ transplants as a means of prolonging life on the sidelines of a military parade in Beijing. Putin suggested even eternal life could be achievable as a result of innovations in biotechnology, according to a translation of remarks caught on hot mic." BBC. This has been gleefully reported by the Western media probably to hint at two megalomaniac dictators aspiring to immortality. However, the conversation could be entirely reasonable. The total fertility rate (TFR) in Russia has dropped to 1.4 births per woman and in China it was even more dire at 1.0 births per woman in 2023. World Bank. The global population may peak at 9.8 billion in the 2070s and there is a possibility of a human population collapse as countries and their people become more wealthy. Bloomberg. "Parents in China are being offered 3,600 yuan ($500) a year for each of their children under the age of three in the government's first nationwide subsidy aimed at boosting birthrates." "The handouts will help around 20 million families with the cost of raising children, according to state media." BBC. "A Russian region is offering a payment of 100,000 rubles (about Rs 81,000) to female students under 25 who give birth to a healthy baby. This initiative aims to support the country's population growth amidst historic lows in birth rates, a Moscow Times report stated." ET. In 2003, Singapore even tried a "Love Boat" for couples to relax and have sex away from the stresses of home. Time Magazine. All these inducements fail because people cannot afford the financial cost of rearing a child and do not want the interference with their careers. Putin and Xi may have been discussing how to increase their populations by increasing the lifespan of existing people by replacing diseased organs. China could and did impose a brutal one-child policy to control population (Britannica) but even the most brutal state cannot induce its people to produce children. Unfortunately, replacing kidneys and hearts may extend life but will be of no use if the brain fails. "Human cephalosomatic (head and body) anastomosis and transplantation has never been realized before due to the inability of fusion regarding spinal cords of the donor and the recipient. Innovatively, according to the allegations of Canavero et al, recent advances (ultrasharp neurosurgical blades, application of fusogens, electrostimulation) can confront this obstacle and make such a challenging procedure to be feasible and worth attempting," wrote Grigorios Gkasdaris & Theodossios Birbilis. Attaching the head of another person on Xi Jinping's body is of no use and attaching his senile brain to an athletic young man's body may allow him to participate in a marathon but will not control the Communist Party. Cloning is an option (Britannica) but the original Xi will be dead and forgotten before the clone becomes an adult. Also, there is a danger of a rogue scientist secretly creating a clone army (wikipedia) to overthrow the Party. Whatever they may be, Putin and Xi are no fools. They must have been discussing ways of increasing their populations and not making themselves immortal, despite the sneering propaganda of the Western media. Misuse of hot mic.    

What is the point?

"Smartphones have become an extended part of us." So, "Indians spend 5 hours a day on their phones, with 69% spent on social media, films, entertainment, music and gaming. A 2025 AIIMS study reveals that children under 5 have an average screen time of 2.2 hours, twice the WHO-recommended limits." "A 2021 study by Wacks and Weinstein associates excessive smartphone usage with difficulties in cognitive-emotion regulation, impulsivity, impaired cognitive function, addiction to social networking, shyness and low self esteem," wrote V Anatha Nageswaran & Shruti Singh. "In June, Uttar Pradesh decided to merge some government schools in the state." "The Unified District Information System (UDISE) data - it is the source of all school education statistics of the education ministry - also shows that school enrollment is falling in most states. 18 of 21 big states recorded a decline in school enrollment between 2018-19 and 2023-24," wrote Abhishek Jha. According to the Annual Status of Education Report (ASER) 2024, "During the pandemic years, there was a big jump in government school enrollment, with the proportion of 6-14-year-old children enrolled in government schools rising from 65.6% in 2018 to 72.9% in 2022. This number is back to 66.8% in 2024." Vajiram & Ravi. Enrollment numbers should be falling because, "Highlighting that Total Fertility Rate (TFR) for the country has further declined to reach 1.9 in 2023,..the Sample Registration System (SRS) Statistical report in 2023 shows TFR for rural India for the first time touched 2.1 - the replacement rate, where one generation replaces itself, leading to population stability." TOI. "Since 2014-15, India has seen a decline of 12.1 million students at the primary level, amounting to a drop of 9.3%. At the middle level, enrollment has fallen by 3.6 million, and at the elementary level, the reduction totals a staggering 15.7 million students," wrote Renuka Chowdhury of the Congress. It is not about absolute numbers, because falling enrollment may be due to falling birth rates, but about the learning levels of children who do attend schools. "The ASER reports show that students in class 5 cannot read class 2 text or do simple mathematical sums." And, in 2018, India ranked 72 out of 74 countries which took the Programme for International School Assessment (PISA) test. However, "two Indian schools have been adjudged 'best school in the world' by T4 Education," wrote SA Aiyar. Delhi University students prefer to learn from YouTube rather than from books, wrote Prof Shobhit Mahajan. "On YouTube, you can find videos, which if not in vernacular, are typically delivered bilingually and in a non-intimidating manner. The students feel comfortable with the format of short videos, which they think, gives them the essence of the topic." "India's gross enrollment ratio (GER) in higher education is 28.3%." The government wants to increase the GER to 50% "to enhance the quality of India's human capital and prepare the youth for the jobs of tomorrow." Unfortunately, "According to the India Employment Report 2024, the youth make up 83% of the total unemployed," wrote Ajit Ranade. Every child must be in school and all should have the opportunity for higher education, but life does not end with education. Education must lead to respectable jobs. Or else, it has no value. Lives wasted.      

Started with Canada.

"President Donald Trump's senior trade advisor and tariff advocate Peter Navarro reignited fears of a digital tariff war when he reposted a call for levies on outsourcing on foreign remote workers on social media X." A post by US Navy intelligence officer Jack Posobiec "read like a manifesto for taxing the digital economy." "Navarro's endorsement instantly amplified speculation that the Trump campaign could be preparing ground for tariffs on India's on India's $283-billion IT sector." TOI. A fact-check on X said, "Navarro's claims are hypocritical. India's legal, sovereign purchases of Russian oil for energy security do not violate international law." Another fact-check on X said, "While India has some tariffs, the US has a trade surplus with it in services. The US also continues to import certain commodities from Russia, which is hypocritical." To which, Navarro said, "Fact: India didn't buy Russian oil in large quantities before Russia invaded Ukraine." "Indian special interests are trying to interfere with domestic dialogue with lies about India buying Russian oil. Should X present this crap as comments from 'diverse viewpoints'?" HT. "Prominent conservative voices in the US, mostly with large social media followings, have launched tirades on Indian workers, students, and even 'call centers', flooding platform with posts that have drawn accusations of racism and hypocrisy." Fox News host Laura Ingraham wrote," Don't forget that any trade deal with India will require us to give them more visas...Let Modi see what terms he can get from Xi instead." HT. "Prime Minister Narendra Modi is unlikely to attend the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) in New York later this month...External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar is listed to represent India instead." "Modi skipping UNGA comes amid renewed strain in India-US ties." BT. PM Modi is to skip the BRICS virtual trade summit. Geostrategist Brahma Chellaney wrote that Mr Modi's decision "despite India being a prime victim of Trump's weaponization of trade - was clearly calculated to avoid antagonizing Washington during a delicate phase of negotiations, even at the cost of appearing less committed to the BRICS bloc." BT. Anti-immigration rallies by right wing groups in Australia "were preceded by flyers depicting mass migration as a 'crisis' threatening communities, highlighting a surge of Indian migrants since 2020." BT. In November 2024, "Once considered 'immigrant-friendly', Canada has seen a surge in racist remarks directed at Indian-origin immigrants both offline and online in the last few months,' wrote MS Sharma. A four-day "cow-based global summit" from 4 to 7 September at Jaipur had stalls "selling cow products such as ghee, milk, fertilisers and cow dung processing machines, artwork made of cow dung, notebook and stationery items made from cow dung paper along with cosmetic items. A large number of stalls focused on medicines made of cow urine which claims to treat ailments ranging from constipation to cancer." The Wire. Anti-Indian sentiment started in Canada with the Nijjar killing (NDTV) and seems to be spreading. Bit late to be diplomatic.  

Not GST, it's money.

"The 56th meeting of the GST Council, chaired by Union Finance Minister Smt Nirmala Sitharaman has now approved Next-Gen reforms." pib.gov.in. The Goods and Services Tax (GST) "is an indirect tax which has replaced many indirect taxes in India such as the excise duty, VAT, services tax etc." cleartax.in. "The latest reforms mark a major simplification of the GST structure. The shift to a two-slab system of 5% and 18%, removing the earlier 12% and 28% rates, will make taxation more transparent and easier to follow. At the same time, a 40% on luxury and sin goods such as pan masala, tobacco, aerated drinks, high-end cars, yachts and private aircraft ensures fairness and revenue balance." These changes are "extremely consumer friendly." And there will not be a negative impact on tax collections because "it is expected that the consumption boom, fueled by price cuts arising from the GST reductions, will more than offset any decline in GST collections at an individual product level." However, further changes are needed because, "Petroleum products are still not included in the GST framework," wrote MS Mani. Prices may fall slightly but people have to earn to spend. "Professionals are caught in a salary spiral where costs keep climbing, pay moves slowly, and financial stability slips further away." On paper, "India is the world's fastest growing economy, with steady GDP growth, soaring corporate profits and a bullish stock market. But the paychecks of working middle-class Indians tell a very different story - one of financial strain, dwindling savings and rising dependence on debt." India Today. "In India, per capita debt of individual borrowers has grown from Rs 390,000 at the end of March 2023 to Rs 480,000 as of 31 March 2025." An increase of 23%, and "an increasing number of households are taking loans for consumption purposes: that is, to fund their everyday expenses such as shopping and bill payments," wrote M Suresh Babu. "In a blog, Marcellus Investment Managers' Saurabh Mukherjea warns that collapsing white-collar job creation, shrinking real wages, and the rise of AI are gutting the middle-class engine that has long powered India's growth story." BT. As for bringing petroleum under GST, it should be instantly rejected by the states because states can impose their own taxes on petrol, aircraft fuel and on alcohol. Which is why petrol prices vary from Rs 94.30 in Chandigarh to Rs 107.33 in Thiruvananthapuram. goodreturns.in. "The changes in the GST is a double dose of support and growth for the nation," said Prime Minister Narendra Modi. GST collections are shared equally with the states but cess and surcharges levied by the Centre are not. Lower GST collections will reduce revenue of the states but the Central government can plug its revenue loss by increasing cess and surcharges. "Data: Share of cesses and surcharges in Gross Tax Revenue falls to 14.5% in 2023-24, down from the high of 20.2% in 2020-21." factly.in. "Trinamool Congress Rajya Sabha leader Derek O'Brien... said the cess going to the Centre is 'slitting the throat of federalism', and noted that several states have voiced concern over the shrinking divisive pool of tax revenues." ET. Looting the states and conning the people. Higher consumption needs more money. And, money, as they say, doesn't grow on trees.          

An improbable crime.

"A Delhi court...cancelled a non-bailable warrant against former Research and Analysis Wing (R&AW) officer Vikash Yadav, two days after it was issued." Yadav 'failed to appear at the Patiala House Courts in a case of alleged kidnapping and extortion that was filed against him weeks after the US named him in the murder-for-hire plot, identifying him as CC-1 at the time." The Wire. In October 2024, "The US Attorney's Office for the Southern District of New York said...that it had registered 'murder-for-hire and money laundering charges' against Vikash Yadav for trying to kill Gurpatwant Singh Pannun." Pannun supports an independent Sikh state Khalistan. "The indictment of Yadav, for the first time, implicates the Indian government directly in the attempted assassination of a dissident." "The Indian government said it is cooperating with the investigation." BBC. "Yadav is an Indian national based in India and used 'Amanat' as an alias when communicating with his co-conspirator, another Indian national, to facilitate the murder plot." fbi.gov. Indian national Nikhil Gupta was arrested in the Czech Republic on 30 June 2023 and extradited to the US on 14 June 2024. justice.gov. Vikash Yadav was allegedly handling Gupta to arrange a hit on Pannun. In the initial indictment of Nikhil Gupta in November 2023, Yadav was referred to as CC-1. "CC-1 is an Indian government agency employee who has variously described himself as a 'Senior Field Officer' with responsibilities in 'Security Management' and 'Intelligence' and who has also referenced previously serving in India's Central Reserve Police Force and receiving 'officer training' in 'battle craft' and 'weapons'. In about May 2023, CC-1 recruited Gupta to orchestrate the assassination (of Pannun)." jusitce.gov. Within weeks of the indictment, Vikash Yadav "was arrested by the special cell of Delhi Police on December 18, 2023, for allegedly kidnapping a businessman in Rohini and extorting money on behalf of jailed gangster Lawrence Bishnoi." TOI. In a bizarre twist, "The owner of a cafe in Delhi who had accused former Research and Analysis Wing (R&AW) officer Vikash Yadav of kidnapping and attempted murder last year, was also arrested on the charge of kidnapping another businessman 10 years ago." The Print, 20 October 2024. Charges were framed against nine individuals in the plot to kidnap the businessman on 24 March 2015 but all were acquitted in April 2023. "An episode of true crime series Crime Patrol from 2014 also featured a similar plot." A comedy of villainy to try and prevent extradition of Vikash Yadav to the US, and subsequent interrogation, by dragging a ridiculous case for years through the courts.  Investigative agencies in India are alleged to harass citizens with false accusations at the government's bidding. The Wire. This is perhaps the first time a false case has been filed to protect a government employee from a long sentence in a US prison. Will the US Justice Department fall for this con trick? Depends on what they will extract in return. Could be costly. For India.    

Everyone will be right.

"Distasteful rumors about the demise of US President Donald Trump trended on social media...after the MAGA supremo uncharacteristically remained out of the public eye for more than 72 hours amid mounting concerns about his health." The rumors "were triggered by concerns about the 79-year old President's health over the past few weeks as TV cameras have shown him with bruises and purple patches on his hands and swollen legs and ankles." TOI. "US economy has been generating 85,000 jobs a month so far in 2025, down from 168,000 last year and an average 400,000 a month during the hiring boom of 2021-2023. However, in a time of uncertainty, employers are less likely to hire, but they are not letting workers go either." ET. "Two Nobel Prize winning economists, Paul Krugman and Robert Shiller, are sending cautionary signals about the US stock market." US markets could be destabilized by Trump's policies. "Krugman warns that these moves can ripple through the economy, causing slower growth while prices rise - a dangerous combination economists call stagflation." "Shiller's landmark work, Irrational Exuberance, explains why markets can sometimes detach from economic fundamentals." ET. "On paper, these are good times for the US economy. The latest GDP numbers show growth was 3.3% in the second quarter. Business investment is up. The unemployment rate remains low, and the inflation rate is reasonable." "And yet. This boom has always felt kind of terrible." "This just might be the worst best boom ever." ET. However, Trump "marked Labor Day weekend by spotlighting what the White House described as 'nearly $10 trillion' in new investments aimed at American workers, part of what officials are calling a 'Golden Age of Prosperity'." TOI. Sounds like the American version of "Amrit Kaal" promised by Prime Minister Narendra Modi for us in India (investndia.gov.in). Trump also said, "Chinese airlines were forced to keep 200 planes on the ground this year after the US blocked the export of Boeing parts." "The president repeated his threat to raise tariffs if China restricts shipments of rare-earth magnets." ET. Trump's "tariffs are a key reason why the deficit outlook is not collapsing. The US credit rating stays high because of the strong economy," and "S&P said revenue growth, including  tariffs, will help cover the gap created by tax cuts and spending increases, as stated by Fortune." "S&P said the US deficit will not get much better, but it also will not get much worse, as per the reports." ET. "Among other things, it has been said that higher tariffs will cause a US and global recession," but "The country is ahead of everyone - including China - in most of the revolutionary innovations [such as artificial intelligence] that will define the future. Accordingly, its potential annual growth is likely to increase from 2% to 4% by the end of the decade, before rising much higher in the 2030s," wrote the normally pessimistic Prof Nouriel Roubini. So, there we have it. From irrational disaster to irrational exuberance. Wide enough for every pundit to be prophetic. Or, irrational.

A dream explained.

"S&P Global has raised India's long-term sovereign credit rating to 'BBB' from 'BBB-', with the short term rating upgraded to A-2 from A-3." pib.gov.in. And, "Beating estimates and marking a five-quarter high, India's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew 7.8% in the April-June quarter of FY26, data released by the National Statistics Office (NSO) showed." ET. These numbers are a "call for celebration" and a "wake up call for many gloom-mongers", wrote Sounya Kanti Ghosh. Private consumption expenditure expanded at 7%, investment expanded at 7.8%, the Centre and states front-loaded their capital expenditure, rural wages in real terms expanded 4% and "Growth in services sector at 9.3% (the highest since Q1 FY24) was indeed a pleasant surprise." In short, it is hunky-dory all round, as we Indians say. However, growth of GDP at current prices, or nominal GDP, slowed from 10.8% to 8.8%. In view of Trump's tariffs, "Economists estimate the nominal growth rate will slide to 7.5-8.0% in the full year FY26," which has implications because "nominal growth remains crucial as it forms the basis for the Budget estimates." "To meet the government's initial Budget estimate of GDP for FY26 (Rs 356.98 trillion) the economy needs to grow by around 8% in nominal terms this year, or it could curtail fiscal room for the government," wrote Pragya Srivastava & Payal Bhattacharya. "While the post-pandemic rebound pushed investment up to 33.7% of GDP in 2024-25," "To drive a meaningful economic transformation, India needs consistent real GDP growth of 8%, anchored in manufacturing and exports. India must push its investment rate higher to 36-37% to achieve this goal," wrote Dhiraj Nim. This is because wages have not kept pace with profits and so demand is weak. The same Mr Ghosh wrote, "There is limited crowding-in of private investment demand after years of public sector-led capex. GoI has done most of the heavy lifting. India Inc, sitting on a huge cash pile, should now display the proverbial 'animal spirits' and participate in the Indian growth story more vigorously." Not so hunky-dory, is it? "For generations, America has been a rite of passage for Indian families." "But in 2025, that dream has curdled." News18. Why is the US a land of dreams for Indians if things are so hunky-dory as Mr Ghosh suggests? As a tropical country, monsoon rains can be very heavy in India. But every year life comes to a halt and people die due to waterlogging in Delhi. "Rain has disrupted the daily life of Delhi NCR region, with woaterlogging and flooding danger." HT. The Merauli-Mahipalpur Road at Vasant Kunj, Delhi caved in because a wall built by Delhi Metro Rail Corporation collapsed, causing almost total cessation of traffic. India Today. Delhi is the Capital City. Elections are never held in India during monsoons because, "Monsoon is the evidence" "Roads buckle, drains overflow, airports shut, metro systems stall." "The monsoon is the season when truth seeps through every crack in the pavement. It is the one season that resists spin, resists, spectacle, resists even WhatsApp forwards." "You cannot Photoshop a flooded metro station. You cannot argue with a pothole that swallowed a car," wrote Partha Sinha. Even Mr Ghosh's heavy jargon cannot camouflage the nightmare of the monsoon. Little money, high taxes, zero services. And, that is why the US is a dream for Indians.