Thursday, August 14, 2025
Can't complain anymore.
"The Ministry of Finance welcomes the decision by Standard & Poor's (S&P) Global Ratings to upgrade India's long-term sovereign credit rating to 'BBB' from 'BBB-' and its short term rating to A-2 from A-3, with a Stable Outlook. The rating upgrade is a significant affirmation of India's economic trajectory and prudent fiscal management." "India's buoyant and dynamic economic growth," fiscal consolidation and quality of spending. pib.gov.in. But, why are we celebrating? Why not just ignore it? In April 2024, "The oligopoly of the three global rating agencies, Moody's, Standard & Poor and Fitch, needs to be dismantled, says V Anantha Nageswaran, Chief Economic Advisor to the Government of India." The Hindu. All these years India has been rated just above 'junk' in the bond market, wrote Swaminathan Aiyar. " 'Junk' indicates a significant chance of default. The rating agencies feel that, despite its recent feats, India could go bust in a future crisis." India's fiscal deficit has fallen from 9.5% during Covid to a Revised Estimate 2024-25 of 4.8% of GDP and is expected to be 4.4% of GDP in 2025-26, according to Budget 2025. pib.gov.in. "The combined debt of central and state govts had fallen from a Covid high of 89% to 81.3% in 2025, but this was nowhere near the govt's own below-60% target. Interest on debt swallowed up 45% of central govt tax revenue." "The rate of interest on 10-year gilts in India (6.3%) is far higher than in Japan (1.35%), US (4.4%) or Germany (2.51%)." It is not just the rating agencies, but the higher yields on government bonds indicates the bond market's mistrust on returns. The market may be discounting significant depreciation of the Indian rupee. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) transferred Rs 2.69 trillion as dividend to the central government in 2025, 27% higher than Rs 2.1 trillion in 2024. BS. Foreign exchange reserves stood at $688.87 billion on 1 August. ET. However, reserves are expected to have risen by $4 billion in the week through 8 August. Reuters. "During his Independence Day address at Red Fort this morning, Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced Rs 15,000 aid for youth entering for entering the private sector job market for the first time under the Pradhan Mantri Viksit Bharat Rozgar Yojana." The scheme is expected to benefit 35 million young people at a cost of Rs 1 trillion." HT. Mr Modi also "announced that next generation GST (Goods and Services Tax) reforms will be implemented by Diwali, aiming to reduce taxes on everyday use items." ET. "To ease the tax burden, the Finance Act, 2025 increased the Section 87A rebate, raising the threshold for tax-free income from Rs 700,000 to Rs 1.2 million. Consequently, tax liability for incomes up to Rs 1.2 million is effectively reduced to zero." ET. Increasing social spending and falling tax collections should increase the fiscal deficit. That would increase government debt and interest payment. However, S&P has discounted all that and is optimistic about India. Not biased, is it?
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