Please come down.

"Chief Economic Advisor (CEA) V Anantha Nageswaran said...that the impact of fresh US tariffs on India would have a mixed effect, with potential job losses largely restricted to export-oriented industries heavily reliant on the American market." "Nageswaran noted that India's strong domestic demand, bolstered by a good monsoon and rising rural consumption would cushion the impact of tariffs. He added that any job losses that might occur are unlikely to be significant." BT. In 2024, India exported goods worth $87.3 billion to the US while importing $41.5 billion worth from the US, for a goods trade surplus of $45.billion. ustr,gov. In the same year, China exported goods worth $438.7 billion to the US, while importing $143.2 billion worth, for a surplus of $295.5 billion." ustr.gov. Which means, as our exports are so insignificant our job losses are likely to be equally insignificant, so as to be absorbed by increased spending by the rural population, 83.2 million of whom were granted employment under the Mahatma Gandhi Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA) in FY 2023-24, down from 87.5 million in FY 23. BS. MGNREGA is a social welfare scheme for the rural unemployed to provide a cushion against loss of income. wikipedia. "In Surat, where more than 80% of the world's rough diamonds are cut and polished, orders have started drying up," and "some big players plan to shift part of their operations to countries like Botswana, which faces a lower 15% US tariff." Around "150,000 to 200,000 workers could lose their jobs." Reuters. This is highly specialized work so these workers are unlikely to find suitable alternative employment. "India's IT sector is shedding jobs," as artificial intelligence makes thousands of jobs redundant. "The IT industry contributed roughly 7.5% to India's gross domestic product in fiscal year 2023, with over 5 million people directly employed in the sector." CNBC. "According to a layoff tracker called Layoffs.Fyi, 152,922 workers from 551 tech companies have been laid off in 2024." ET. Even worse, unemployment among the educated youth is much higher than among the illiterate. TOI. "Most Indian economists are reluctant to retaliate against Trump's tariffs as China did." "By contrast, most Indian foreign policy experts want to stay tough and not give an inch." But, "We must stay tough." "A country perceived to be weak will be subjected to ever more pressure," wrote Swaminathan Aiyar. In short, tell Trump to 'shove off'. Excellent advice but Prime Minister Narendra Modi is in China attempting to increase trade (BBC) with that enemy nation. "India is making a bad bet on China, and it will not end well," argued Prof Sumit Ganguly. A view supported by geopolitical expert Brahma Chellaney who argued that "while Modi might seek a diplomatic thaw with China, the risk of China exploiting any signs of Indian weakness should not be overlooked." BT. Of course, the biggest risk is that the US is far and will never attack India militarily but the barbaric Chinese have repeatedly attacked India and their nauseating friends Pakistan and Bangladesh may join in. It may be no big deal for experts, but it is for Indians who have lost jobs during the festival season and for our national security. Ivory tower  obscures vision. They need to descend to our level.      

The real handicap.

"US President Donald Trump 'no longer has plans' to visit India later this year for the Quad Summit, the New York Times reported." "According to the NYT, during the June 17 call, Trump once again claimed credit for ending the escalation and mentioned that Pakistan planned to nominate him for the Nobel Peace Prize," but "Prime Minister Modi firmly told Trump that India does not and will never accept any mediation in its conflict with Pakistan, Foreign Secretary Vikram Mistry said." India Today. "The White House has privately urged European nations to replicate US sanctions against India by halting all oil and gas imports from the country over its continued purchase of Russian crude." BT. But China imports more Russian oil than India, so why no tariffs on China? China is a huge market for US companies. If the Indian economy grows at 7% per year, it will take 25 years to catch up to China. But, China will have grown even larger by then. Also, China controls supply chains which the US needs, wrote Devina Mehra. "As the trade war between China and the US escalates," "slapping reciprocal tariffs on Washington is not the only way Beijing has been able to retaliate. China has also imposed export controls on a range of critical rare earth minerals and magnets, dealing a major blow to the US." BBC. Trump backed down. "Despite short-term friction with New Delhi over the ongoing tariff war, the US cannot afford to alienate India," because, as a democracy, India acts as a counterweight to China and Russia, said election strategist Vimal Singh. Indians get delusional because they forget that the US has a huge embassy in Delhi, and consulates in Chennai, Hyderabad, Kolkata and Mumbai, and US diplomats regularly send news and analysis to Washington. They will have noted, "The response of the Election Commission of India (ECI) to charges of voter list manipulation by Congress Member of Parliament Rahul Gandhi suggests that there may have been massive fraud in the electoral processes." DH. Union Home Minister Amit Shah has introduced the Constitution (130th Amendment) Bill 2025, which will allow "governors of states and lieutenant governors of Union territories to sack a chief minister or any state minister if they are detained in jail for 30 days, even if not convicted." The Wire. Which means, unelected officials appointed by the government can dismiss an elected politician after jailing her/him for 30 days on trumped up charges by subservient investigative agencies controlled by the Home Minister. Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal was jailed for five months without any proof of wrongdoing. BBC. "The Modi years have been filled with high-voltage optics: hugs with world leaders, diaspora rallies in Madison Square Garden and Wembley, carefully choreographed images of 'India rising'." "Yet beneath the showmanship lies a disturbing reality: India's strategic depth and credibility are eroding," wrote Manoj Kumar Jha. And hence, "The political costs to PM Modi if he compromises on trade will be unendurable," wrote Mihir Sharma. Mr Modi's real handicap is that he wants to hang on to his post forever while Trump is in his second term and cannot run again. Mr Modi has to repair ties with the US without appearing to surrender while Trump can continue to turn on the thumbscrews. Not surprising, the Indian Embassy in Washington DC has hired a second lobbying firm and "signed a $75,000 monthly retainer contract for three months with Mercury Public Affairs starting August 15." ET. That is $225,000 of taxpayer money. The problem now is how to mollify Trump without appearing to. Square the circle, as it were.   

GDP grows, rupee falls.

"Beating estimates and marking a five-quarter high, India's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew 7.8% in the April-June quarter of FY26, data released by National Statistics Office showed." The nominal GDP grew by 8.8%. "The Centre's capital expenditure rose by 52% year-on-year in the first quarter, emerging as a key growth driver." ET. "Private consumer spending, which makes up 57% of GDP, rose 7% year-on-year (y-on-y) in April-June, compared to 6% in the previous quarter, as rural spending increased, and demand for durables and farm equipment such as tractors remained firm." Reuters. The narrow difference between real and nominal GDP is because of very low GDP deflator, which adjusts for inflation in reference to a base year  (Vajiram & Ravi). The y-on-y consumer price index (CPI) inflation fell to a low of 1.55% in July 2025. MoSPI. However, "India fiscal deficit for the first four months of this fiscal year through April-July stood at Rs 4.68 trillion, or 29.9% of annual estimates," higher than 17.2% in the same period last year. ET. Why is the fiscal deficit worse when economic growth is so high? Maybe because, "While the government's tax revenue does not necessarily grow at the same rate as the nominal GDP, they generally move in the same direction." MC. So, a disappointing nominal GDP growth along with high capital expenditure by the government could have resulted in a higher fiscal deficit. "The rupee dropped to 88.29 against the US dollar, breaching its prior lifetime low of 87.95 hit in February. The currency rebounded partially to trade at 88.12 against the dollar,..following dollar sales by the central bank, dealers said." "Foreign portfolio investors have sold $9.7 billion in Indian debt and equities this year." Mint. "The exporters body Federation of Indian Export Organisations on August 26 expressed serious concerns over high US tariffs on Indian goods and said that textiles and apparel manufacturers in Tirupur, Noida and Surat have 'halted production amid worsening cost competitiveness due to these steep duties'." "Think-tank Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) has earlier calculated that this could lead to product exports to the US falling from nearly $87 billion in 2024-25 to $49.6 billion this year." The Wire. India had foreign exchange reserves of $690.72 billion as of the week ended 22 August (ED) which seems adequate to defend the rupee, but the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) transferred a windfall dividend of Rs 2.69 trillion to the government this year (BS) rising from Rs 2.11 trillion in 2024 and Rs 874.16 billion in 2023. infomerics.com. Does the RBI have enough reserves to protect the rupee, if it continues falling, and monetise the fiscal deficit at the same time? We hope it knows what it's doing.         

Indian women are ahead of the RBI.

"The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has recently taken some visible steps to advance the internationalisation of the rupee." "The RBI has given its nod to scheduled commercial banks to give extended rupee loans to the neighboring countries while simultaneously allowing trade invoicing in rupees." News 9. "Around 90% of intra-BRICS trade is already settled in non-dollar currencies, but a unified currency remains a medium- to long-term goal." However, "President Donald Trump threatened 100% tariffs on any BRICS country backing a rival reserve currency and demanded public assurances not to challenge the dollar's role." TOI. To get round US and EU sanctions, a system, "which Russia calls 'BRICS Bridge', is intended to be built within a year and would let countries conduct cross-border settlement using digital platforms run by their central banks. Controversially, it may borrow concepts from a different project called mBridge, part-run by a bastion of the Western-led order, the Swiss-based Bank of International Settlements (BIS)." Mint. So, can we get rid of the dollar? Not so fast. "As of December 2022, more than 58% of the global foreign exchange reserves were in dollars." Also, "data from the BIS tell us that close to half of the global trade is still invoiced in dollars. In the case of foreign exchange transactions, dollar is on one-side in 88% of the transactions." "Finally, as far as India is concerned, what should we prefer? A world in which the premier currency is American or a world in which it's Chinese. Now that is a no-brainer," wrote Vivek Kaul. Finfluencer Akshat Shrivastava warned that, "INR-based returns quietly erode over time due to currency depreciation." The Indian Rupee (INR) loses 3-4% against the US dollar every year. The rupee buying less than the dollar every year means that inflation in India is rising 3-4% more than in the US every year. "He cited that while the 20-year CAGR (compound annual growth rate) for the Nifty 50 stands at 12.59%, the return drops to 7-8% after adjusting for rupee depreciation." BT. The rupee has fallen from 3.30 to one dollar to 86.61 in February 2025. Thomas Cook. It would therefore make sense to hedge by adding 3% to the price of anything we buy with INR. Making the rupee truly international means allowing citizens to use it freely. "However Indian residents going abroad are allowed to take with them Indian currency not exceeding Rs 7,500." "Import of Indian currency is prohibited." Indian Embassy in Thailand. So, Indians cannot use the INR. Whereas, "As of December 31, 2024, there was $2,322.9 billion in circulation," and "As much as one-half of the value of the US currency is estimated to be circulating abroad." uscurrency.gov. Which means over $1 trillion or over Rs 87.5 trillion at today's exchange rate (xe.com) is held outside the US. Such severe currency control by the RBI limits investment options for Indians. As a result, "Indian women collectively hold a staggering 24,000 tons of gold, surpassing the reserves of the top five countries combined." TOI. Gold is an excellent hedge against inflation and currency depreciation, wrote Pramit Bhattacharya. Since the price of gold is set in London twice every day (wikipedia), Indian women have already made the rupee international. Partially, at least.The RBI is trying to unshackle and control at the same time. Waste of time.  

Protected by end-to-end.

"The UK's Investigatory Powers Act 2016," "not only lets the government demand that companies give them special access points to user data," but these demands "come with a gag order for companies who get them." However, Apple "found subtle ways of making it public, stopping all end-to-end encryption for British customers of iCloud and by challenging the order in court." The British government has dropped the demand for a backdoor. Mint. Indians have no constitutional right to privacy and our Supreme Court has vacillated between human rights of citizens and powers of the state to violate privacy "in the interest of preventing crime, maintaining public order, protecting public health or morals, or safeguarding the rights and freedoms of others." juriscentre.com. So vague that the state can violate our freedoms with complete impunity. In June, an officer of the Indian Navy said in Indonesia that India lost fighter planes in Operation Sindoor because of "restrictions imposed by the government on striking Pakistani military establishments and the orders were to hit only terror infrastructure in that country." HT. Earlier this month, Assam Police filed a case of sedition against two journalists of The Wire for reporting these same comments. DH. The Criminal Procedure (Identification) Bill of 2022 allows the police to forcibly collect biometric data of anyone arrested or detained and hold this data for 75 years. BBC. "India, which has topped the global list for six consecutive years, recorded 84 internet shutdowns in 2024, the highest among Democratic nations." India Today. In January, Inspector Jitendra Shahane asked Elon Musk's social media platform, X, to take down a post from 2023 which "described a senior ruling-party politician as 'useless'." "The post, which remains online, is among hundreds cited by X in a lawsuit it filed in March against India's government, challenging a sweeping crackdown on social media content by Prime Minister Narendra Modi's administration." "X argues India's actions are illegal and unconstitutional, and that they trample free speech by empowering scores of government agencies and thousands of police to suppress legitimate criticism of public officials." Reuters. Elon Musk is too powerful to touch. WhatsApp, which is a part of Meta, has launched front-page advertisements in India asserting that its end-to-end encryption means that even its staff cannot read messages on its platform. Impact. Meta is an American company. Only human beings have a need for privacy, animals do not. By denying us the right to privacy the Indian government equates Indian citizens with animals and so it is indifferent to loss of lives due to weather every year. Since 20 June, 303 people have lost their lives in Himachal Pradesh because of heavy rains. NDTV. Heavy rains are common and we have an efficient Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) (wikipedia) with fairly accurate short-term predictions. Still, every year people die. Animals - no privacy, no life.        

Ecstasy after agony.

"Effective today, India faces a 50% tariff on its goods exported to the US." "The 50% tariffs will impact $48.2 billion worth of export merchandise to America." TOI. "As per the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), India ships about $86.5 billion worth of goods to the US each year. Of this, roughly $60.2 billion (66%) will now face the 50% tariff. Another $3.4 billion in auto parts remain at 25%, while $27.6 billion, mostly pharma, electronics and petroleum stays duty free." "Overall shipments to the US could fall 43%, threatening hundreds of thousands of jobs across India's export hubs." ET. "India has suspended an 11% import duty on cotton until September 30, in a move as a signal to Washington that New Delhi is willing to address US concerns on agricultural tariffs, while also easing pressure on its garment industry." "Cotton imports more than doubled to $1.2 billion in 2024/25 fiscal year to March." Reuters. Already, "Cotton farmers in India are facing one of the worst crises in decades." "Yields are falling in the fields, prices are dropping in the mandis, and imports are rising in the markets." India Today. On 1 April, India dropped "a 6% tax on ads that local businesses place with foreign search engines, social media and e-commerce firms." "Known colloquially as 'Google Tax,' the levy was a bad idea when it was introduced in India's 2016 budget." "In 2020, India flatly told the first Trump administration that its digital services charge was not aimed at any particular country and the decision would not be reconsidered." "All of a sudden, old hubris has been replaced by a new spirit of sacrifice." ET. "In Surat, where more than 80% of the world's rough diamonds are cut and polished, orders have started drying up with looming US tariffs shaking buyer confidence. While smaller exporters have fewer options to cushion the blow, some bigger players plan to shift part of their operations to countries like Botswana, which faces a lower 15% US tariff." Reuters. "Indian manufacturers, especially those in textile, jewellery and seafood industries, are facing severe disruptions" as "factories that supply to major US retailers such as Walmart, Target and Gap are witnessing canceled orders and reduced production." Zee. "The timing of the announcement has made things worse because nearly half of annual sales for most export businesses are made during this period, in the run-up to Christmas." BBC. This is a double whammy because, as Indian manufacturers are set to miss the festival season in the US, the loss of jobs and anxiety among workers may hit sales during the festival season in India, starting today till Diwali on 21 October. However, the government is set to reduce the goods and services tax (GST) at a two-day session starting on 3 September. TOI. Around the same time, can we expect tariffs on US goods to be dropped, for the good of India, of course, and a trade deal to be signed by Mr Modi and Trump around 26 September when Mr Modi is expected to speak at the UN General Assembly  (Zee), all discussions about retiring at the age of 75 years on 17 September (HT) forgotten in the hysterical outpourings of delirious, imbecile Bhakts (DH). After the agony, the ecstasy. What a show!            

Ivy is safer.

An Indian origin techie based in San Francisco wrote that "someone she personally knows had taken a Rs 5 million loan to pursue higher education in the United States. After completing his degree, he reportedly failed to secure a single job offer. Forced to return to Mumbai, he is now earning just Rs 20,000 a month at an Indian start-up, while his retired father pays Rs 75,000 monthly EMI from his pension." ET. The man paid for education, which he received. Was he promised a job by the US government when he applied? In February, "A US military aircraft carrying 104 deported Indians landed at Amritsar's Shri Guru Ramdas Ji International Airport," carrying, "deportees, mostly from Punjab, had spent Rs 3 and Rs 5 million to reach the US through illegal routes." MC. After being deported from Ireland in 2018, a couple in Gujarat was arrested at Ahmedabad Airport, carrying false passports provided by a people smuggler who promised illegal entry into the US for Rs 10 million. The woman resigned her job as a primary teacher in a government school. ET. In May, a family of four from Gujarat paid Rs 26 million, at Rs 6.5 million per person, to be smuggled by boat into the US. The boat overturned, the children drowned and both parents were in hospital. India Today. The fact that this man was not offered any job in the US and is earning a meager Rs 20,000 in Mumbai may be because he chose to pursue an unwanted degree in a minor college as a safe Dunki route  (TNIE) into the US. At least the US degree got him a job in a start-up. In September last year, 39,990 graduates and 6,112 postgraduates applied for jobs as sweepers in Haryana government offices. TOI. "As of 2022, an estimated 725,000 undocumented Indian immigrants were in the US, making them the third largest group after those from Mexico and El Salvador." BBC. It is understandable why the US wants to get rid of them. Harjinder Singh, who entered the US illegally, killed three people with his truck while executing an illegal u-turn in Florida.  TOI. "Driving while intoxicated (DUI) may become a deportable offense for Green Card and visa holders, even if they have prior convictions, states a new proposed bill in the US. HT. "The majority of overseas students studying in the US are Indians," and "the largest group of people who receive Green Cards each year are India-born individuals." HT. No country wants to lose control over its borders. It has serious security implications. One Sunali Khatun was "pushed into Bangladesh by police in India who labeled her an illegal immigrant, police in Bangladesh have now done the same thing to her - called her an illegal immigrant and jailed her. She is eight months pregnant." Sweety Bibi and her sons Qurban Sheikh (16) and Dewan (6) have also been expelled. TOI. College education is also expensive for Americans and many struggle to pay off their student loans. TOI. Perhaps Indians should aim only for the top universities, so-called Ivy League colleges (Ivy Central). Even if they don't get a desirable job in the US they will surely find opportunities elsewhere. Using education as Dunki route faces the same financial risk. A gamble. 

It's self interest.

"Prime Minister Narendra Modi said that India, guided by its mantra of 'Reform, Perform and Transform,' is now ready to help the world break free from the grip of slow growth." The PM "painted a picture of a confident nation that is no longer a silent observer but contributes significantly to global economic revival." ET. "India will be able to increase its share in global GDP from 3.3% in in 2021 to 4.1% in 2028." India's GDP was $4 trillion in 2024, with a per capita nominal GDP of around $2800, wrote Dr SP Sharma. A 0.8% increase in the share of global GDP in seven years is not exactly blistering pace and the rise could be due to weakness in other economies. Meanwhile, "US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has warned that Washington could increase secondary tariffs on India." "Russian oil made up 35% to 40% of India's oil imports in 2024 - up from 3% in 2021." "Trump's new 50% tariffs rate on India is set to come into effect on 27 August." BBC. On 15 August, "PM Modi announced the introduction of Next-Generation GST reforms by this Diwali, aimed at reducing taxes on daily use items." pib.gov.in. In reality, the festival season in India will start with Ganesh Chaturthi on 27 August and run till Diwali on 21 October (Calendar). "The proposed cut in goods and services tax (GST) rates is being welcomed by consumers, but companies across sectors are reporting a slowdown in sales as buyers wait for lower prices ahead of PM Modi's Diwali gift promise." ET. Hindus consider this period to be auspicious for buying more expensive goods like cars, refrigerators and washing machines. Post-Covid Indian companies have substantially reduced their debt. "Profit after tax increased to more than Rs 11 trillion in FY25 from less than Rs 4 trillion in FY19." "India Inc cash holding has tripled to more than Rs 13 trillion as of March 2025 from around Rs 4.5 trillion in Marcch 2018." And yet, "There is limited crowding-in of private investment demand after years of public-sector led capex." "India Inc, sitting on a huge cash pile, should now display the proverbial 'animal spirits' and participate in the India growth story more vigorously," wrote SK Das & S Sharma. 'Animal spirits' seem to have shifted to the bond market. Yields on benchmark Indian sovereign bonds climbed the most in 14 months after PM Modi announced fewer and likely lower slabs for indirect taxes." ET. Yield on the benchmark 10-year bond rate in India is 6.545% this morning (MarketWatch) even though the RBI cut its repo rate to 5.50% on 6 June (pib. gov.in.). The US Federal Reserve held its Funds rate at 4.25%-4.5% in July (BBC) while the yield on 10-year Treasury is 4.269% (CNBC). The Indian government borrows at 100 basis points higher than the RBI interest rate while the US government borrows at the rate set by the Fed. Lower tax rates were supposed to increase consumer spending but has had the opposite effect, so companies would be reluctant to increase capacity and that means no increase in employment, while lower tax collections may increase government borrowing which is reflected in rising bond yields. People see their own interest. Logical.         

Business, but don't trust.

"'Will you walk into my parlour?' said a spider to a fly." After the fly fell for the spider's tricks, "And now, dear little children, who may this story read, To idle silly flattering words, I pray you ne'er give heed." wrote Mary Howitt. "Chinese ambassador to India Xu Feihong has said that Beijing 'firmly opposes' Washington's steep tariffs on Delhi and called for greater cooperation between India and China." "He called the two countries 'double engines' of economic growth in Asia and added that unity between India and China benefits the world at large." BBC. "Double engine" are Mr Modi's words and they have been noted by our neighbors. "When Prime Minister Narendra Modi barrels around India to support allies running for state government elections his war cry is: 'ab ki bar double engine ki sarkar' (this time a double-engine government). At face value this means having the BJP at the center together with BJP governments in every one of India's 28 states." Dawn. And, just as a 'double engine' BJP dictatorship will be death for Indians, a double engine partnership with China would be 'Lingchi', or death by a thousand cuts (wikipedia). Our government should always remember that the Chinese are an uncivilised, barbaric people whose offer of friendship masks a primitive brutish violent nature. "Two Chinese warships collided in the South China Sea on 11 August, as the country worryingly ramps up pressure on and bullying of the Philippines. The incident occurred within 10 nautical miles of Scarborough Shoal, which lies within the Philippine exclusive economic zone (EEZ) but which China illegally seized in 2012." ET. While China is aggressive outside its borders, "China's economy slowed across the board in July with factory activity, investment and retail sales disappointing, suggesting Beijing's crackdown on destructive price wars and spillovers from Donald Trump's tariffs are casting a pall over the world's No. 2 economy." ET. China's youth unemployment is serious. "No one would want to work without getting paid, or even worse - having to pay to be there. Yet paying companies so you can pretend to work for them has become popular among young, unemployed adults in China." "Chinese youth unemployment remains stubbornly high, at more than 14%." BBC. "Back in April, Beijing tightened the screws on exports of seven key rare earth elements and magnets," but "After months of speculation, Beijing has withdrawn its export restriction on rare earth magnets to India." HT. "China deepened a trade spat with Canada, filing a lawsuit at the World Trade Organisation over import restrictions on steel just days after slapping fresh duties on Canadian canola." ET. Canada is far away. China occupies our land. All spiders are carnivores. Brainly. Chinese especially. So, smile but keep guns ready.       

Understand your oath.

The Union Home Minister Amit Shah tabled a Constitution (130th Amendment) Bill in Parliament on 20 August. "The amendment allows the governors of states and lieutenant governors of Union territories (India. gov.in) to sack a chief minister or any minister if they are detained in jail for 30 days, even if not convicted." The Wire. "The amendment also applies to the prime minister - giving the power to sack him or her to the president of India." On 21 August, Leader of the Opposition "Rahul Gandhi in Bihar said that he was confident the Lok Sabha polls were manipulated." TOI. It means that governors and lieutenant governors appointed by the BJP, which won 240 seats, well short 272 required for majority (results.eci.gov.in), and even that by allegedly manipulating results, can remove ministers elected by popular vote. If that isn't  fascism, what is? Just last year, Delhi Minister Manish Sisodia of the Aam Aadmi Party was released on bail on 9 August, after 17 months in prison on unproven charges. India Today. That prevented him from campaigning in the general election held in May, which could have reduced BJP seat number even further. In his media conference, Chief Election Commissioner (CEC) Gyanesh Kumar "made broad denials, took a combative position, and made unnecessary comments. The Commission asked Gandhi to produce the proof of his charges on affidavit and render an apology." "The language and tone used by the CEC did not align with the function of a constitutional functionary." DH. CEC Gyanesh Kumar is a retired IAS officer. wikipedia. The Indian Administrative Service (IAS) is a continuation of the Indian Civil Service set up by the British East India Company to rule India. Vajiram & Ravi. Every IAS officer is required to take any oath that "I will be faithful and bear true allegiance to India and to the Constitution of India by law established." dopt.gov.in. Since Mr Gyanesh Kumar has been appointed CEC because he was an IAS officer he is still under oath. Which means his loyalty should be only to the Constitution and the people of India and not to any political party or politician, no matter how powerful. The Vidhi Centre for Legal Policy recently released its State of the System (SOS) database, according to which, "Of the 7,305 crimes on the statute books, a staggering 5,333 can land a person in jail, while 433 attract life imprisonment and 301 carry the death penalty." TOI. The IAS continued all the repressive powers of the ICS and perpetuates its hold on the nation by its sycophancy toward politicians in power while cloaking itself in anonymity. Time for the IAS to be reevaluated (Rajiv Tuli), As the BJP gathers extreme power and governance rots, "A new elite exodus is gripping India, a class once celebrated as achievers is quietly migrating abroad." BT. Fascism promotes second and third grade people. So the best try to escape. If they can.

Vibrant dog bites.

"India has the courage that the European Union lacks for giving in to Trump's whims and demands, says founder of HouseTrip and entrepreneur Arnaud Bertrand. He said it is absurd that the EU is negotiating peace through a hostile Donald Trump, and have made a 'pathetic spectacle' of themselves." BT. "India is right to decry his imposition of forbidding tariffs as unfair, unjustified, and indeed hypocritical." But, "There is also truth in what Trump says. Cheap Russian oil has been used by refiners to earn extra profits, while the retail consumer has seen no benefit. And our tariffs have been moving in the wrong direction, exposing us to being dubbed the 'tariff king'." "If Trump can bully us, it is because we can be bullied." The Print. "The present 'hyphenation' of India with Pakistan, an almost failed state, is a deliberate insult inflicted on Modi's India," although "Prime Minister Narendra Modi did get a last-minute invitation to join the G7, but not as a participant - only as an observer," wrote Jawhar Sircar. Meanwhile, "Pakistan...extended its airspace ban on Indian aircraft until September 23, prolonging the restrictions for another month amid continuing tensions between the two countries." TOI. "The response of the Election Commission of India (ECI) to charges of voter list manipulation by Congress Member of Parliament Rahul Gandhi suggests that there may have been massive fraud in the electoral process." "It is unclear, however, for how long such manipulation of voter rolls has been going on, but the ECI seems to be in no mood to entertain any complaints," wrote Ajay Gudavarthy. In addition there is trouble for BFF Mr Adani. "On 20 November 2024, the US Department of Justice (DOJ) unsealed an indictment against the Adani Group, charging its chairman Gautam Adani, his nephew Sagar Adani and other senior executives with orchestrating a 'massive bribery scheme' to win energy contracts in India." In 2023, Adani Group spent $40,000 on lobbying in the US. But in 2024, lobbying expense jumped to $70,000, with an additional $20,000 paid to Akin Gump. The Wire. In all this nastiness, hundreds of Indian sailors have been abandoned in foreign ships. "According to the International Transport Workers' Federation (ITF), which represents seafarers globally, there were 3,133 abandoned sailors across 312 ships in 2024 - of which Indian nationals accounted for 899." BBC. "With fast news cycles, censorship does not require the blocking of information." Instead, the mainstream media suddenly discovered dog bites. The Wire. "In 2024 alone, the country recorded 3.717 million cases, an average of 10,000 dog bites every single day." The Economic Times. Indians may be repressed, but how do you suppress Elon Musk?  "Since 2023, India has ramped up efforts to police the internet by allowing many more officials to file takedown orders," but, "X argues India's actions are illegal and unconstitutional, and that they trample free speech by empowering scores of government agencies and thousands of police to suppress legitimate criticism of public officials." Reuters. India was ranked 151 out of 180 in the World Press Freedom Index 2025, up from 159 in 2024.The News Minute. It could be because some other countries have become more restrictive and not because our freedoms have increased. As expected the government responded, "India has vibrant press and media ecosystems, which does not need validation from foreign organisations." The Wire. Freedom to report dog bites. Not for robbing elections. That invites contempt. As observer.    

Not just children.

 "Over 90% of rural children in the 14-18 years age group have a smartphone in their home...and are on social media, according to the Annual Status of Education Report (ASER) 2023." TOI. "A 2024 survey conducted by Localcircles found that around 50% of urban Indian parents admit that their children, aged 9 to 17. are addicted to videos, gaming and social media," wrote V Anantha Nageswaran & Shruti Singh. "A 2025 AIIMS study reveals that children under 5 have an average screen time of 2.2 hours, twice the WHO recommended limit." Perhaps, studies should seek to find what percentage of parents are addicted to smartphones or use them to keep their children occupied while they work. A report by EY states "that on average, Indians spend 5 hours a day on their phones, with 69% spent on social media, films, entertainment, music and gaming." Professor of Physics at Delhi University, Shobhit Mahajan found that "most students were now relying on YouTube instead of reading books for learning." "The Covid-19 pandemic forced most education to move online." This was disastrous because, "This Instagram generation spends a large fraction of their time viewing reels on their phones. Their attention span is, by default, limited to a few minutes." Perhaps, as a result, "The Economic Survey 2023-24, presented in Parliament,..reveals that only 51.25% of India's graduates are deemed employable." India Today. "One recent report found that adults in the US check their phones, on average, 344 times a day - once every four minutes - and spend almost three hours a day on their devices in total." BBC. According to a study, "Smartphone use by children younger than 13 was associated with suicidal thoughts, worse emotional regulation, lower self-worth and detachment from reality, especially among girls." And also sleep disruptions, cyberbullying and negative family relationships. CNN. People are developing emotional relationship with GPT-4o "Through a psychological phenomenon called anthropomorphization, users could attribute human-like qualities to the chatbot and begin to liken it to a real person." pace.edu. "A comprehensive study of 466 users who regularly engage with ChatGPT develop significant emotional attachments to the AI system, sometimes leading to what researchers describe as 'emotional dependence'." Science Blog. For the first time in the world, in November 2024, "Australia will ban children under 16 from using social media, after its parliament approved the world's strictest laws. The ban, which will not take effect for at least 12 months, could see tech companies fined up to A$50 million if they don't comply." BBC. In India telecommunication was provided only by government companies till 1999. Once private companies were allowed to offer services, the service boomed, until today even the poorest Indian owns a smartphone. iPleaders. "Two-thirds of Indian households owned a television in 2024." "Nearly half of Indian households had a refrigerator by 2024." Data for India. But, every household today owns at least one smartphone. Perhaps, adults have to be cured of their addiction. To protect children.          

A red herring.

"The Centre is set to introduce a Constitution amendment bill to provide legal framework for the removal of the Prime Minister, Union ministers, Chief ministers and state ministers who are arrested and detained on account of serious criminal offences." "The bill proposes that if a minister in a state or at the Centre, including chief minister or the Prime Minister, is arrested or detained in custody for 30 days in a case carrying a punishment which may extend to five years' imprisonment, he or she shall tender a reason before the 31st day of arrest. Failing this, the minister shall cease to hold office." ET. With the Home Minister exercising total control of police and investigative agencies this bill will create an absolute dictatorship. The misuse of the CBI, ED and the NIA by the ruling party is well documented. The Wire. The indiscriminate use of the Unlawful Activities Act (UAPA) which allows incarceration for an unlimited period without the necessity to provide evidence in court was noted by Michelle Bachelet, United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights. ORF. "Only two cases filed under the draconian UAPA were quashed by courts between 2018 and 2022, the Union Home Ministry told the Parliament." 6,503 individuals were charged, of whom only 252 have been convicted. The Wire. The rest are rotting in prison without trial. "The Supreme Court of India, in an observation made in a case on August 8, came down heavily on the Enforcement Directorate (ED) and raised significant concerns over its modus operandi, emphasizing the need for the agency to operate strictly within legal boundaries." ET. It is known that, 23 of 25 opposition politicians, who switched over to the BJP, had charges dropped, leading to the BJP being labeled the 'washing machine party'. FE. "The response of the Election Commission of India (ECI) to charges of voter list manipulation by Congress Member of Parliament Rahul Gandhi suggests that there may have been massive fraud in the electoral processes." "It is unclear, however, for how long such alleged manipulation of voter rolls has been going on, but the ECI does not seem to be in any mood to entertain any complaints," wrote Prof Ajay Gudavarthy. Voter rolls or the counting of votes was manipulated in the 2019 general election to BJP's gain. In 2023, "Ashoka University in Haryana has accepted the resignation of economics teacher Sabyasachi Das, who quit a fortnight after the varsity publicly distanced itself from his working paper that alleged electoral manipulation in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls." Prof Pulapre Balakrishnan resigned "in solidarity". TT. It is imperative that the police and investigative agencies are not controlled by politicians or civil servants. We need an independent public prosecutor with powers to investigate anyone, including the prime minister, who will be answerable to a committee with representation from civil society, the opposition and a judge of the High Court. This bill has included the prime minister as a red herring to give the bill an appearance of being equitable. Instead, it is designed for absolute power. It must be aborted. This instant.              

Too late for Laffer?

"Prime Minister Narendra Modi while delivering his Independence Day speech,..announced the next-generation GST (Goods and Services Tax) reforms will be implemented by Diawali, aiming to reduce taxes on everyday use items." ET. This year, Diwali is on Monday, 20 October. india.gov.in. According to Morgan Stanley, "India's consumption story could receive a major boost," as the "overhaul in GST rate slabs, along with support from personal income tax cuts, monetary policy easing, signs of pickup in job growth and improving real wages, will brighten the outlook for consumption in the country." TOI. Proposed by Arthur Laffer in 1974, "The Laffer curve showcases the intricate relationship between tax rates and government revenue," and "posits that both excessively high and low tax rates result in reduced tax revenues, suggesting that tax cuts can potentially enhance revenue collection." Investopedia. If the theory has been common knowledge for 51 years, why weren't the GST rates lowered all these years? Because GST collections have been growing almost exponentially. Starting in July 2017 with a total collection of Rs 215.72 billion (wikipedia) it soared to Rs 2.37 trillion in April 2025, falling to Rs 1.96 trillion in July 2025 (blog.tatanexarc.com). This extraordinary rise in collections was facilitated by rising inflation, from 2.4% in July 2017 to a crushing 7.6% in January and October 2020, with average inflation rate staying over 5% from 2020 to 2023, and 4.9% in 2024. RI. Since GST is a percentage of the price paid by the consumer, the higher the price the higher the GST collected. However, "India's retail inflation eased to an over 8-year low of 1.55% in July, aided by government food prices, according to government data." ET. Maybe now is the time to bring in Mr Laffer. If consumption increases, it may result in new investment, more jobs, and greater tax collections. Trouble is, the festival season, which is the period for the highest consumer spending in India (upstox,com), will be over by the time the new rates are available. But taxes are not the only thing holding Indian business back. "India's business sector is being 'strangled by a bureaucratic system'," as "shipping a single container requires generating 17 to 18 different documents, ranging from commercial invoices and e-way bills to insurance papers and declarations." BT. Marcellus Investments Manager Saurabh Mukherjea "notes that since Diwali 2023, earnings growth in Indian companies has slowed sharply, driven by a consumption slump. The cause: middle class Indians are running out of money. RBI data shows household savings as a share of GDP fell in FY24 to a 50-year low, levels last seen in 1977." BT. The National Council for Applied Economic Research (NCAER) "classifies middle-class households as those earning between Rs 500,000 and Rs 3 million annually." And, "Once considered a key engine of economic growth this class is now increasingly burdened by loans and financial stress. The average income for middle-class earners has stagnated at around Rs 1.05 million per year for over a decade. When adjusted for inflation, the real value of income has declined." DH. Mr Modi first came to power 11 years ago in 2014. wikipedia. Stagnant wages and soaring prices have hurt the middle class, while high taxes on fuel raised about Rs 66 trillion from 2014-15 to 2024-25 for central and state governments combined (ppac.gov.in). Toll collections contributed another Rs 2.4 trillion. The Hindu. Transport costs add to the prices of all goods and services. The reduction of GST rates is a panicked reaction to US President Donald Trump's 25% tariffs on Indian exports which may result in mass unemployment (NYT). So, will the Laffer curve work? Or, is it too late?   

Trek to Himalayan shrines.

"At least 60 people have been killed and dozens are still missing after flash floods hit a village hosting Hindu pilgrims in Indian-administered Kashmir." "More than 100 have been injured," as "water mixed with debris and mud came gushing down a hill in Choshti village in Kishtwar district - a remote village on a busy pilgrimage route to a Himalayan shrine." ET. On 16 June 2013, a flash flood at the Hindu pilgrimage town of Kedarnath in Uttarakhand killed an estimated 6,054 people, including 934 local residents. wikipedia. In July 2025, "Heavy rainfall in Uttarakhand has triggered a series of landslides and flash floods, severely disrupting the Char Dham Yatra (four shrines' trek)." India Today. The Char Dham, or the four shrines, include Yamunotri, source of the River Yamuna, Gangotri, source of the River Ganga, Badrinath, temple to Lord Vishnu and Kedarnath, temple to Lord Shiva. Uttarakhand govt. "In 2021, another flood near Badrinath,..left more than 200 dead. Not too far away, slow-moving subsidence in Joshimath, a gateway to Badrinath, has left a fifth of buildings uninhabitable." "With less than 1% of India's population, the state of Uttarakhand consistently uses up about 10% of the country's budget for natural disaster relief," wrote David Fickling. "There's also the a larger and scarier question lurking in the events of land-subsidence at Garhwal's Joshimath town - are there other Joshimaths in the making across India's troubled hillscapes.""A construction boom with scant regulations, often under pressure of burgeoning tourism, finds echo across the Himalayan region." TOI. Tourists bring money into the local economy so governments are reluctant to control the number of tourists for fear of upsetting their 'vote bank' (wikipedia). Unscrupulous builders are lured in by tourist spending and build hotels on fragile slopes, ignoring warnings about landslides, while politicians and officials enrich themselves with bribes. Environmental degradation is rampant because of endemic corruption. "EY's recent 'Shadow Economy Exposed' report says India's underground or unaccounted economy was over 26% of GDP in 2023." There are "Sand mafia, tanker mafia, parking mafia, coal mafia, slum mafia to name a few." "Recently, Haryana's chief secretary got a rap from the Supreme Court over the illegal construction of a road through forestland for transporting illegally quarried stone from Haryana to Rajasthan. Later, a drone survey revealed not one but three unauthorised roads in the area." TOI. In 2015, Mr Nitish Kumar became Chief Minister of Bihar for the fifth time by promising to ban alcohol to get women's votes. TOI. Unable to sell locally brewed toddy, people chopped down palm trees. As a result, between April 2016, when the alcohol ban came into effect, and April 2025, lightning strikes have killed 2,446 people in Bihar. The sap-filled palm tree acts like a lightning rod. TOI. Human sacrifice. For religion. Or for votes.    

A winning strategy.

"India, the fastest growing major economy in the world, is rapidly moving towards becoming one of the top three global economies, said Prime Minsiter Narendra Modi." Mint. "PM Modi urged the country...to move towards more self-reliance, manufacture everything from fertilisers to jet engines and EV batteries, and vowed to protect farmers in the face of trade conflict with Washington." "Modi announced lower goods and services taxes (GST) from October - a move that could help boost consumption." Reuters. Mr Modi is promising import substitution. "China's restriction on exports of rare earth magnets, which are crucial for the auto sector especially electric vehicles, is a wake-up call and India must act with urgency to ramp up domestic exploration and production of critical materials." DH. Will take decades - so much for EV batteries. "Indian farmers are effectively taxed, not subsidised, agricultural economist Dr Ashok Gulati has said, citing international producer support benchmarks and warning that policy distortions continue to suppress farm incomes under the guise of consumer welfare." BT. "How would India deliver decent returns to farmers on their cotton crop if demand swoons in its biggest overseas market for shirts, trousers and T-shirts?" And, "with a belligerent Washington threatening to upend a vast swathe of local factory jobs, there will be less money at home to buy domestically produced goods," wrote Andy Mukherjee. "Tamil Nadu's textile exporters have sounded the alarm after US President Donald Trump imposed steep tariffs on Indian goods, endangering 20,000 factories and nearly 3 million jobs in the state's knitwear hub of Tiruppur." BT. "Indian PM Modi and his ruling party have seized on growing friction with Trump to bolster support from Indian farmers areas of crucial state elections." "Modi promised supporters he'd protect the interests of farmers, even if it means he pays a personal price for it." ET. What personal price? Will he resign his post if farmer incomes fall? Absolutely not. For Mr Modi, winning elections is everything and he intends to stay in office for as long as he can. India's uninformed poor are easily fooled and Mr Modi is an expert at that. As he did after demonetisation (wikipedia)." "As per RBI data, it's safe to say that demonetisation has been a failure of epic proportions," wrote economist Vivek Kaul. The poor people, who deal only in cash, suffered enormously (CFA) but Mr Modi's party the BJP won the following assembly election in Uttar Pradesh in a landslide by convincing the poor that the rich had to suffer the indignity of having to stand in queues outside banks to convert their money (Mint). Schadenfreude won over hunger and misery. "Expectations that import substitution in India might succeed this time around are premised on the twin assumptions that the policy is being implemented in a very different environment from the past and and that the instruments being employed are also different. But the country's previous import substitution episodes also differed from one another along those dimensions and every one of them failed," wrote Prof Arvind Panagariya in 2023. Mr Modi is promising failure to win elections. The poor will pay the price. And vote for him.           

The obsession is not helping.

"Amid strained ties with India and newly-found bonhomie with Pakistan, the United States marked the Independence Days of India and Pakistan this week with official statements that underscored different diplomatic undertones. While the message to India on August 15 highlighted the historic partnership between the world's largest and oldest democracies, the greeting to Pakistan a day earlier focused on deepening economic cooperation, particularly in critical minerals and hydrocarbons." ET. US President Donald Trump again claimed he brokered peace between India and Pakistan when the countries were probably going 'nuclear'." Despite the fact that "India repeatedly rejected Trump's ceasefire claims." TOI. Trump's top adviser on India, Ricky Gill "noted there was one thing irritating Trump's team: Why were the Indians still obsessing over how the conflict in May ended?" Our diplomats were surprised because, "India has made no secret of its long-standing position that issues with Pakistan, its nuclear arch-rival, should be handled bilaterally." ET. But, it was definitely not bilateral. "China gave Islamabad 'live inputs' on key Indian positions during Pakistan's deadly conflict with its neighbor in May, the deputy chief of India's army said." Reuters. "The invitations are: one extended by Canada to Prime Minister Narendra Modi for attending G7 meetings from 15-17 June, and a much reported invitation extended by the US to Pakistan Field Marshall Asim Munir to attend US army day parade on 14 June." The US may need Pakistani logistics in a war with Iran and "The US is also keen to wean Pakistan away from China, as Pakistan turning into a Chinese vassal State would be a national security nightmare for the US." The Print. Therein lies the longstanding stupidity of the US where Pakistan is concerned. As the conflict with India showed, Pakistan is in hock to China. "According to a report by AidData, Pakistan's total external debt owed to China amounted to $68.91 billion as of November 2023." wikipedia. On 8 August, Pakistan's foreign exchange reserves rose by $11 million to $14.24 billion with the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) and "the country's total liquid reserves to $19.50 billion." Arab News. On 29 June, "China has rolled over $3.4 billion in loans to Pakistan, two senior government officials told Reuters." In 2012, "The Taliban in Afghanistan are being directly assisted by Pakistani security services, according to a secret Nato report seen by the BBC." India may go on ranting about resolving issues with Pakistan on a bilateral basis but China and the US are already there. Also, by obsessing about Pakistani terrorism we equate Pakistan with us in the eyes of the world. Treat the terrorists as criminals and ignore Pakistan. As for the US, "At the heart of this masterful manipulation is Pakistan's army chief Asim Munir," who "has crafted his American trap with flattery, transactional diplomacy and strategic deployment of two high-stakes assets: Pakistan's mineral wealth and a seductive cryptocurrency narrative." ET. However, no major oil company is rushing to Pakistan because of security concerns and the expected high cost of extraction. oilprice.com. Trump has nothing to gain from bankrupt Pakistan. He is using Pakistan, and our silly obsession with that failed state, to arm-twist India because he can gain economically from India. The US is stupid regarding Pakistan. And we are allowing the US to trample us. Is it a contest in stupidity?   

Can't complain anymore.

"The Ministry of Finance welcomes the decision by Standard & Poor's (S&P) Global Ratings to upgrade India's long-term sovereign credit rating to 'BBB' from 'BBB-' and its short term rating to A-2 from A-3, with a Stable Outlook. The rating upgrade is a significant affirmation of India's economic trajectory and prudent fiscal management." "India's buoyant and dynamic economic growth," fiscal consolidation and quality of spending. pib.gov.in. But, why are we celebrating? Why not just ignore it? In April 2024, "The oligopoly of the three global rating agencies, Moody's, Standard & Poor and Fitch, needs to be dismantled, says V Anantha Nageswaran, Chief Economic Advisor to the Government of India." The Hindu. All these years India has been rated just above 'junk' in the bond market, wrote Swaminathan Aiyar. " 'Junk' indicates a significant chance of default. The rating agencies feel that, despite its recent feats, India could go bust in a future crisis." India's fiscal deficit has fallen from 9.5% during Covid to a Revised Estimate 2024-25 of 4.8% of GDP and is expected to be 4.4% of GDP in 2025-26, according to Budget 2025. pib.gov.in. "The combined debt of central and state govts had fallen from a Covid high of 89% to 81.3% in 2025, but this was nowhere near the govt's own below-60% target. Interest on debt swallowed up 45% of central govt tax revenue." "The rate of interest on 10-year gilts in India (6.3%) is far higher than in Japan (1.35%), US (4.4%) or Germany (2.51%)." It is not just the rating agencies, but the higher yields on government bonds indicates the bond market's mistrust on returns. The market may be discounting significant depreciation of the Indian rupee. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) transferred Rs 2.69 trillion as dividend to the central government in 2025, 27% higher than Rs 2.1 trillion in 2024. BS. Foreign exchange reserves stood at $688.87 billion on 1 August. ET. However, reserves are expected to have risen by $4 billion in the week through 8 August. Reuters. "During his Independence Day address at Red Fort this morning, Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced Rs 15,000 aid for youth entering for entering the private sector job market for the first time under the Pradhan Mantri Viksit Bharat Rozgar Yojana." The scheme is expected to benefit 35 million young people at a cost of Rs 1 trillion." HT. Mr Modi also "announced that next generation GST (Goods and Services Tax) reforms will be implemented by Diwali, aiming to reduce taxes on everyday use items." ET. "To ease the tax burden, the Finance Act, 2025 increased the Section 87A rebate, raising the threshold for tax-free income from Rs 700,000 to Rs 1.2 million. Consequently, tax liability for incomes up to Rs 1.2 million is effectively reduced to zero." ET. Increasing social spending and falling tax collections should increase the fiscal deficit. That would increase government debt and interest payment. However, S&P has discounted all that and is optimistic about India. Not biased, is it?      

Optimistic Dr Doom.

"The US economy may be headed for something more dangerous than a typical downturn," as economist Torsten Slok "has warned that America is on the verge of a critical inflection point for stagflation, a situation where inflation remains elevated while growth decelerates - something that is particularly challenging to address." ET. Senator Elizabeth Warren thinks that as "The tariffs drive up prices on consumers at the same time businesses hold off on new investments and credit tightens. Consumer debt, which is already rising, soars as regulators dramatically ease crisis-era rules and enforcement priorities. The soaring US debt, exacerbated by Trump's massive agenda bill, leaves economic ability in question." CNN. "Inflation is rising while the dollar is falling, and Trump's just-passed One Big Beautiful Bill Act is projected to add a whopping $3.4 trillion to the federal deficit." "The result, says economist Robert Shapiro, is that the United States economy has become dangerously unstable and vulnerable to financial shocks." Washington Monthly. However, "JP Morgan Research has reduced the probability of a US and global recession occurring in 2025 from 60% to 40%." "Small US companies, the source of more than half of the country's jobs creation in recent years, are struggling to comply with President Donald Trump's new tariffs and cope with growing financial strains...from higher imports costs. Bloomberg. "Economists estimated that every percentage point increase in the tariff rate would shave 0.1% off US growth and add 0.1% to inflation." "The bigger mystery is why the stagflationary impact of tariffs has yet to materialise." Could be because, "foreign exporters are indeed absorbing 20% of costs" and "estimates of what big tech companies will spend this year on building out AI infra have risen $60 billion to $350 billion." wrote Ruchir Sharma. Even 'Doctor Doom' is optimistic. "Wall Street has been calling him 'Dr Doom' for 17 years, but Nouriel Roubini - the economist famous for his persistently bearish and frequently dystopian takes on the world economy - is sounding surprisingly positive lately." BI. Prof Roubini thinks that as Trump's "most damaging economic policies take a milder form," "the positive effects of technology will always trump the negative effects of tariffs" and the "potential annual growth is likely to increase from 2% to 4% by the end of this decade, before rising much higher in the 2030s." "The US economy's potential growth will approach 4% by 2030, far above the International Monetary Fund's recent estimate of 1.8%. The reason: America is the world leader in 10 of the 12 industries that will define the future, with China leading in only electric vehicles and other green tech," wrote Dr Roubini. Trump has imposed 50% tariffs on India. BBC. How should India respond? "This is an opportunity for the industry and the government to work together to accelerate economic reforms and make India truly competitive," wrote President of the Confederation of Indian industry (CII) Rajiv Memani. From factor market, labor laws, taxes, energy distribution to mining, all need to be reformed. But, true competition will only happen when tariff and non-tariff barriers to imports are reduced or dropped. That will compel Indian industry to innovate and improve quality to world-class levels at competitive prices instead of gouging excess profits out of a helpless captive Indian market. Are our fat cats ready for that? Or just one-way reforms? 

May happen at UNGA.

"From McDonald's and Coca Cola to Amazon and Apple, US-based multinationals are facing calls for a boycott in India as business executives and Prime Minister Narendra Modi's supporters stoke anti-American sentiment to protest against US tariffs." Reuters. Not just Amazon. In 2018, "Global retail giant Walmart has paid $16 billion for a majority stake in Flipkart, India's biggest online retailer, making this the world's largest ever e-commerce acquisition." BBC. Thousands of people will be laid off if Indians stopped using their services. "Fast food restaurant chain KFC has launched a sign language training program for its employees in India," and "The training is mandatory for all KFC employees in the country, including those working in the company's corporate offices." ET. Google and Meta's WhatsApp and Facebook are free. Do any of India's executives, who award themselves eye-watering salaries, (Mint) ever think of how to improve the products and services they dump on fellow Indians? If they did, India would not have to import $113.45 billion worth of merchandise from China in 2024-25, while exporting a paltry $14.25, for a trade deficit of $99.2 billion." HT. That's why they are in sync with Bhakts (devotees) (DH), who live in a deluded world of alternate reality. "The Production Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme, launched in 2020 with Rs 1.9 trillion in incentives for 14 sectors, was designed to build domestic manufacturing capacity." "Yet manufacturing's share of GDP is now below 14%, lower than when 'Make in India' began." "India still imports over 70% of the active pharmaceutical ingredients (API) used in its generic drug industry from China, despite targeted PLI schemes." India Today. "Nearly 100,000 diamond cutting and polishing workers in Gujarat's Saurashtra region have lost their jobs since the United States imposed a 10% baseline tariff in April." TOI. If just 10% is so devastating, what will 50% do? "US President Donald Trump has issued an executive order hitting India with an additional 25% tariff over its purchases of Russian oil. That will raise the total tariff on Indian imports to the US to 50% - among the highest rates imposed by the US." BBC. Why? "In the weeks after India and Pakistan agreed a ceasefire in May, New Delhi has been miffed at Donald Trump's claims that he had brokered an end to the four-day conflict." "The tensions peaked during a June 17 phone call between Trump and PM Modi, held after Trump left the G7 summit in Canada early and skipped a meeting with the Indian leader." BT. June was too early. Mr Modi will turn 75 years old on 17 September (wikipedia) at which point he should step down, as per a reminder from Mr Mohan Bhagwat, Chief of the RSS which is closely allied to Mr Modi's party, the BJP (HT). However, Mr Modi is to attend the UN General Assembly, (UNGA) which is taking place from 9-23 September in New York where he will run into Trump (Mint). There we may expect all problems to be sorted out, followed by a triumphant return with demented Bhakts in tears of gratitude, begging him to stay forever. That's what friends are for. Yo-yo tariffs when in need.      

Fleeing women.

"India has lifted 171 million people out of extreme poverty." According to World Bank report, "the proportion of people living on less than 2.15 US dollars a day, which is the benchmark for extreme poverty, fell sharply from 16.2% in 2011-12 to just 2.3% in 2022-23." pib.gov.in. "India's latest Household Consumption Expenditure Survey (HCES) adopted the Modified Mixed Recall Period (MMRP) method, replacing the outdated Uniform Reference Period (URP)," As a result, "Poverty under the new $3.00 line stood at 5.25%, while under the older $2.15 line it dropped further to 2.35%." pib.gov.in. However, the poverty line for a lower middle-income country is $4.20 and for an upper middle-income country is $8.30. "The Indian government surveys consumption rather than income levels" "while other countries estimate income inequality. The two are very different." Also, "Many studies show that India does not do too well in inter-generational mobility. Those born with social or economic disadvantages find it difficult to move ahead," wrote Niranjan Rajadhyaksha. In the state of Jharkhand, women, often entire families, flee their village when they are unable to repay multiple loans. In Jainagar village, "most households have massive loans, ranging between Rs 80,000 and Rs 100,000." Since there is no employment people cannot manage without loans. Microfinance company Spandana Sphoorty wrote off bad loans worth Rs 16.18 billion, 18.3% of the average loan book, wrote Ritwika Mitra. Although the government is giving free food grains to 813.5 million people every month for five years, starting on 01.01.2024, (pib.gov.in) people are clearly unwilling to live just on the breadline. The landmark Mahatma Gandhi Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA) was enacted on 23 August 2005 and provides 100 days of guaranteed paid employment to at least one member of every rural household. wikipedia. "It has enabled significant changes in the rural market of labor. Women make up more than half the workforce." "It has contributed indirectly through infrastructure creation, which has boosted rural productivity." "Despite MGNREGA wages being lower than market wages, almost a third of India's rural households continue to take up work under the scheme," wrote Prof Himanshu. "The population covered by social protection systems has increased from 22% in 2016 to 64.3% in 2025,..data released by the Statistics Ministry showed." "Prime Minister Narendra Modi...said India is rapidly advancing toward becoming the world's third-largest economy." HT. Strange to boast about becoming richer with the number of poor requiring social security trebling at the same time. Perhaps, the women who are fleeing their homes and families can make sense. We surely can't.