Friday, May 16, 2025

Zero duties on 60%.

US Federal Reserve "officials voted unanimously to keep the benchmark federal funds rate in a range of 4.25% to 4.5%. In a statement, policymakers said they see a growing risk of both higher inflation and rising unemployment." "China's services activity deteriorated more than expected in April, a private survey showed," while "the official PMIs showing factory activity already took a hit from massive US tariffs hikes in April." ET. "In a significant shift in its trade approach, China announced...it will set tariffs on US goods at 10%, while suspending the additional 24% tariffs for an initial 90 days. Meanwhile, the combined 145% US levies on most Chinese imports will be reduced to 30%." ET. "Wall Street's main indexes rose on Friday (16 May) for their fifth straight day, buoyed by the US- China tariff truce earlier in the week," even though, "The University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers said its Consumer Sentiment Index slumped further in May while one-year inflation expectations surged to 7.3% from 6.5% last month." Reuters. However, every good news comes with a 'but'. "A new US-China agreement to pause sky-high tariffs on each other is pressuring manufacturing hubs such as Vietnam and Mexico to make their own, better deals with the US to continue benefiting from a 'China-plus-one' strategy by global producers." "Vietnam, for example, was better off than China with a 46% rate, while Thailand was at 36% and Malaysia at 24%." ET. Good for China, bad for more countries. In the US, "The Consumer Price Index increased 0.2% last month after dipping 0.1% in March, which was the first decline since May 2020." "In the 12 months through April, the CPI climbed 2.3%." Reuters. "JP Morgan Chase & Co boosted its forecast for US economic growth after a temporary trade deal between the US and China, dropping its earlier call that the world's largest economy would sink into a recession in 2025, while also projecting a higher 4.8% pace of growth for China." ET. "The rapid de-escalation in the US-China trade war after the Geneva talks last weekend has helped Beijing avoid a nightmare scenario: massive job losses that could have endangered social stability," "but analysts believe Beijing was more concerned about a potential acceleration of job losses than the absolute numbers over the course of a month." Reuters. Meanwhile, newly elected Prime Minister of Canada Mark Carney has decided on confrontation with Trump and has picked Dominic LeBlanc, who described Trump as "vandalizing" trade relations, as US-Canada trade minister. TOI. Unfortunately, "Mark Carney in dire straits: Canada, one of the largest and richest countries in the world added just 7,400 jobs in April as unemployment rate rises to 6.9%." ET. To give it credit, "Canada has effectively suspended almost all of its retaliatory tariffs on US products, tamping down inflation risks and improving its growth outlook." National Post. What about us? "According to a report by Reuters on May 9, India had proposed to reduce its average tariff differential with the US from around 13% to 4%," and also, "India has offered to bring duties down to zero on 60% of tariff lines in the first phase." ET. Which means India will have to give similar terms to other trading partners under WTO rules. That will bring down prices and encourage competition, innovation, and higher consumption. Will it happen? Suspense.

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