Thursday, July 15, 2021

DA and Creta for them, ration for the lucky.

"The tapering of the second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic coupled with aggressive vaccination has brightened the near-term prospects of the Indian economy, though a solid increase in aggregate demand may take some time, said the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on the state of the Indian economy," Times of India (TOI). "The pick-up in inflation is driven largely by adverse supply shocks due to disruptions cause by the pandemic, including increases in margins and taxes," it said. There is no comment on whether higher prices will lead to higher wages, which in turn, will lead to higher prices as companies look to protect the profit margins. "Indian households are dealing with a trifecta of problems: rising inflation, uncertain income, and the spectre of a medical emergency due to the pandemic," wrote Aparna Iyer. Retail inflation has fallen in June, showing sluggish demand, there is an outflow from savings deposits in banks, and credit card spending has shifted towards buying fuel from spending on health, groceries and utility services. "More than 15 million Indians lost their jobs in May alone at the height of a devastating wave that overwhelmed hospitals and crematoriums, according to the Centre for Monitoring the Indian Economy. All that is leading to an increase in hunger, particularly in urban areas, in a nation that already accounts for nearly a third of the world's malnourished people," TOI. "This desperation for food and the long lines for rations in families with two wage earners is unprecedented," said Aditi Dwivedi of Satark Nagrik Sangathan. "Back in March 2012, individuals accounted for 18% of our lenders' loan books. By March 2021, they made up 29%. In contrast, the share of industrial loans shrivelled from 45% to 30% over that period," wrote an editorial in the Mint. Personal loans, which have higher interest payments, have surged and, "Covid distress, meanwhile, has led to a post-2020-21 surge in cash borrowed against gold." "Total financial liabilities of Indian households as a share of gross domestic product (GDP) have increased from 26% in June 2015 to 38% in December 2020," wrote Rangoli Agrawal. Housing loans have maintained their 50% share while education loans have fallen and personal loans, which are not backed by collateral, and loans against gold have shot up. Stock markets are soaring because of TINA, there is no alternative, FOMO, fear of missing out on another bull rally, and BTD, buy the dip, among retail investors, Economic Times (ET). "Increasingly exuberant retail participation in stocks with weak and questionable corporate governance, plethora of whispers fueling a surge of trading volumes in stocks with limited free floats pumped up through hype by interested quarters, which may be dumped on retail investors, are all hallmarks of excesses necessitating heightened vigil and increased surveillance by stock exchanges and the regulatory bodies like SEBI and RBI." "The number of demat accounts as of end-March 2021 stood at 55.1 million, 40% more than the 39.3 million accounts that had existed as of end-December 2019," wrote Vivek Kaul. A demat account is essential for buying, selling and holding shares in 'dematerialised' form instead of as physical share certificates, Angel Broking. "Anecdotal evidence tells us that many of these youngsters have bet all their money on stocks and cryptos. When prices are going up, this looks very good, but the moment they fall, losses start accumulating," wrote Kaul. This is because there is no service offering advice on personal finance suitable for individuals. Not everyone is suffering. "Researchers looked at 40,000 marriages that took place in rural India between 1960 and 2008. They found that dowry was paid in 95% of marriages even though it's been illegal in India since 1961," BBC. "The cabinet on Wednesday approved a 28 percent Dearness Allowance (DA) to the central government employees and Dearness Relief for pensioners," Hindustan Times. This will give lots of money to 11.4 million government employees and pensioners when the RBI is severely squeezing savers with negative real interest rates, Business Today. Government jobs qualify for higher dowry. "Even if you are just a clerk, you will get a car worth Rs 15 lakh to Rs 20 lakh (Rs 1.5-2 million)," said marriage agent Sandeep Singh. Them and the rest, that's India.    

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